Great discussion! I was starting to get depressed because I had missed this run up, thinking what did I miss. Your comments help me realize that even the best missed this run. Thanks.
I calculate that excess savings was around $625 bn (real) at the end of April and is running down at $80 bn/mo (real) = the pace of real retail sales above trend. This means that retail sales can continue at this clip through the year. It makes a recession very unlikely this year. Secondly, people fail to understand the mathematics of economic statistics. They are based on YoY %changes, which work well in normal volatility, but we’ve had 2 nonlinear events (Covid, then stimulus). If you look at the components of the LEI, many are off the highs, but still near ATH and way above their pre-pandemic trends. The faulty application of mathematics leads to the longest telegraphed recession in history, which has allowed time for economic agents and investors to react.
Superb discussion, Dan! Thank you for doing this!!! Vincent's comment on DE when it (and its industrial peers like PH, CMI, CAT) were down ~20% and "on its ass" despite great beat/raise earnings made sense to buy ~ 1 week ago...
Prior to 2008 the growth of money had been more tightly tied to the health of the real economy. QE is money created without being tied to the economy growing. It seems to me QE would create excess money relative to before QE. Does this mean multiples will trend higher over time?
Why are these permabears always into Gold? This is precisely why active money management underperforms so significantly. Imagine paying these guys 2/20 or 3/30 for this type of positioning? And Dan and Danny are too stubborn in their fundamental thesis to ever trade successfully in all markets. It took me over a decade in the markets to try to eliminate bias in my trading. I still struggle with it. Some people can just never do it. And this has nothing to do with my positioning, I am positioned swing short the market as of Friday.
and you think that all the bears are totally short all the time....I know they are not when they trade in pairs...you can be bearish on this crazy economy and still make money on the up side....as there is always a bull market somewhere. Gold since Oct is up quite well during rising rates and inflation. BTW 2/20 or 2/30 if true for them a 168 per cent growth last year is not chicken liver...so they are not incompetent as you want to portray them as. Fundamentals have there place but not in this FOMO time span
Nuclear is not Green, even by association what happens to the Radioactive waste? is it no the same process as carbon waste, contaminating a closed biosphere?
It always throws me off when Dan says that something "exasperates" a move in a stock (24:41). I think the word he's looking for is exacerbate. He says it pretty often and I'm surprised Guy has never corrected him since Guy seems to have a good vocabulary.
Guys what is the corporate profits to GDP looking like in United States. Is it at a bottom or at long term average or at top end of the business cycle? With this you need to compare the valuations
Moses, one day you will be right. Tesla will become a company that sells robotic butler's who come with a car they can drive you around in. No doubt now would NOT be the time to buy Tesla. But once it bottoms in a year or 2 will become a value play. My 2 cents. Thanks for the show, I am grateful.
Oil and gas are getting less real investment now as the services and rigs have inflated in both -22 and -23. SLB talked about 15-20pc price increases which means every dollar spent outputs 20pc less. So how much less rig do you get today compared to 2019? It could be reflected in that opec did not reach their quotas last year.
yup i owned petrobras too. people forget. it was lula who made PBR from 5-65 pps back in early 2000s. now regarding lula is nationalizing PBR. so why there is a talk regarding buyback. also compare to china in which literally communist country in which their oil and gas cos have 5-6x earnings. PBR has 2x earnings with 30% divies with their break even is 30 bucks brent. no brainer eh!
Goldman seemed to do everything it could to walk at least one of those regionals into a take under. It's all very suspicious. The fact that Powell and Yellen are dancing with give and take isn't building my confidence in free markets.
Just invest in good companies that are trending. Growing their earnings and tune out the noise. I am up 176% on Meta. I should have sunk every dollar i had into them but i was too beared up. Nobody has any idea what will happen tomorrow. Follow the price.
It's Worked for Markets in the United States for the last 100 years.. Average returns Under democrat president is 2 percent higher than Under republican president for the last 100 years 🤔
Your brainwashing is too much for me.. I started exiting my positions in Apple, AMD, Tesla, Nvidia in fact most of my tech positions.. come Tuesday I will have some of Microsoft.. which also I will sell quickly
Dan Nathan desperately looking for reasons for why this market should break down… change the tune bro… been saying the same things for 6 months… he’s accepted it’s not a bear market anymore… but now it’s a bubble and it’s a melt-up 😂…. Danny Moses and the other 2 guys on the podcast actually have a balanced mindset… Dan is just so bearish he’s getting desperate… I got a new name for Dan Nathan - Desperate Dan 🤭…. Relax Dan… cover your tesla shorts and take a break 😎
best podcast.
Good discussion. It would be great if you have this group do a show on a weekly basis as summary of the week that would be good.
Working on making it more regular
Dan being bearish on tech is a pretty good indicator to stay long. I will flip when Dan buys into tech
what was he thinking - even now half of Wallstreet is at best neutral.
Great discussion! I was starting to get depressed because I had missed this run up, thinking what did I miss. Your comments help me realize that even the best missed this run. Thanks.
THE BOYS IN STUDIO 🎉🎉
I needed this today!
I calculate that excess savings was around $625 bn (real) at the end of April and is running down at $80 bn/mo (real) = the pace of real retail sales above trend. This means that retail sales can continue at this clip through the year. It makes a recession very unlikely this year. Secondly, people fail to understand the mathematics of economic statistics. They are based on YoY %changes, which work well in normal volatility, but we’ve had 2 nonlinear events (Covid, then stimulus). If you look at the components of the LEI, many are off the highs, but still near ATH and way above their pre-pandemic trends. The faulty application of mathematics leads to the longest telegraphed recession in history, which has allowed time for economic agents and investors to react.
Is it about being right or making money? Serious question.
Superb discussion, Dan! Thank you for doing this!!! Vincent's comment on DE when it (and its industrial peers like PH, CMI, CAT) were down ~20% and "on its ass" despite great beat/raise earnings made sense to buy ~ 1 week ago...
Educational and entertaining; thanks Team RR!
The market does not care about whatever narrative you’ve constructed. Price is truth.
Interesting analysis! Thank you all!
Thanks for listening
Good show..Thanks everyone.
This was great. Thank you. Smart folks
Indeed!
Great show!
Thanks!
I really enjoy What Are We Doing? Hope you guys keep at it.
thanks for the feedback. we hope to do it more often!
this is a bear circlejerk lmaoooo
great podcast with some OG's
Bears have like 4-6 weeks to cover. After that they will be buldozed. I have spoken.
Bring back the BOYS!!! Every week!!!
Right??
Never disappoints! Thank you RR team!
You’re welcome
Prior to 2008 the growth of money had been more tightly tied to the health of the real economy. QE is money created without being tied to the economy growing. It seems to me QE would create excess money relative to before QE. Does this mean multiples will trend higher over time?
everyone seems to critize dan myself included be he has a great analysis thesis very on point of what should be happening.
Thank tou
when is the best time to buy a house
Why are these permabears always into Gold? This is precisely why active money management underperforms so significantly. Imagine paying these guys 2/20 or 3/30 for this type of positioning? And Dan and Danny are too stubborn in their fundamental thesis to ever trade successfully in all markets. It took me over a decade in the markets to try to eliminate bias in my trading. I still struggle with it. Some people can just never do it. And this has nothing to do with my positioning, I am positioned swing short the market as of Friday.
and you think that all the bears are totally short all the time....I know they are not when they trade in pairs...you can be bearish on this crazy economy and still make money on the up side....as there is always a bull market somewhere. Gold since Oct is up quite well during rising rates and inflation. BTW 2/20 or 2/30 if true for them a 168 per cent growth last year is not chicken liver...so they are not incompetent as you want to portray them as. Fundamentals have there place but not in this FOMO time span
Nuclear is not Green, even by association
what happens to the Radioactive waste?
is it no the same process as carbon waste, contaminating a closed biosphere?
Dan @29:30..what if...what if ...what if..... You play the gane that is in front of you. ... Yeah if they the miss **** hits the fan.
It always throws me off when Dan says that something "exasperates" a move in a stock (24:41). I think the word he's looking for is exacerbate. He says it pretty often and I'm surprised Guy has never corrected him since Guy seems to have a good vocabulary.
Guys what is the corporate profits to GDP looking like in United States. Is it at a bottom or at long term average or at top end of the business cycle? With this you need to compare the valuations
Respectfully Dan pleeeease let porter and Vinny talk.
These guys would do better dcaing into vti..
Moses, one day you will be right. Tesla will become a company that sells robotic butler's who come with a car they can drive you around in. No doubt now would NOT be the time to buy Tesla. But once it bottoms in a year or 2 will become a value play. My 2 cents. Thanks for the show, I am grateful.
Oil and gas are getting less real investment now as the services and rigs have inflated in both -22 and -23. SLB talked about 15-20pc price increases which means every dollar spent outputs 20pc less.
So how much less rig do you get today compared to 2019? It could be reflected in that opec did not reach their quotas last year.
The buzz around uranium everywhere is so obvious now that price almost is at a near top.
yup i owned petrobras too. people forget. it was lula who made PBR from 5-65 pps back in early 2000s. now regarding lula is nationalizing PBR. so why there is a talk regarding buyback. also compare to china in which literally communist country in which their oil and gas cos have 5-6x earnings. PBR has 2x earnings with 30% divies with their break even is 30 bucks brent. no brainer eh!
Goldman seemed to do everything it could to walk at least one of those regionals into a take under. It's all very suspicious. The fact that Powell and Yellen are dancing with give and take isn't building my confidence in free markets.
Just invest in good companies that are trending. Growing their earnings and tune out the noise. I am up 176% on Meta. I should have sunk every dollar i had into them but i was too beared up. Nobody has any idea what will happen tomorrow. Follow the price.
I have wondered if porter would prefer the name
Porter collins porter OR
Collins porter collins?
Reference:
th-cam.com/video/GOu9YbMw2qk/w-d-xo.html
Too many cooks in the kitchen on this show. 3 people should be maximum. And Dan is way too verbose. Get to the point, Dan. Please.
Good feedback, thank you!
another one jumping on the brazil bandwagon it is a nation that is to the left when has that ever worked out well for markets.
It's Worked for Markets in the United States for the last 100 years.. Average returns Under democrat president is 2 percent higher than Under republican president for the last 100 years 🤔
@@jluther1755 latin american left is not the same as the democrats. Please get yourself more educated on latin american left so you can understand.
gold miners are just brutal
Your brainwashing is too much for me.. I started exiting my positions in Apple, AMD, Tesla, Nvidia in fact most of my tech positions.. come Tuesday I will have some of Microsoft.. which also I will sell quickly
Dan Nathan desperately looking for reasons for why this market should break down… change the tune bro… been saying the same things for 6 months… he’s accepted it’s not a bear market anymore… but now it’s a bubble and it’s a melt-up 😂…. Danny Moses and the other 2 guys on the podcast actually have a balanced mindset… Dan is just so bearish he’s getting desperate… I got a new name for Dan Nathan - Desperate Dan 🤭…. Relax Dan… cover your tesla shorts and take a break 😎
like a kitty party, just ramblings, possibly the worst OTT podcast yet
You are losing money 😂😂 that is what you have been doing.
Heres some DD: I pay off my credit card every week