TO THOSE CLAIMING IT'S FAKE: Yes, it is. They first shot the video of him picking numbers at random. Then they shot a video of him choosing those numbers as his picks. You are shown these two shots in reverse order. If that's what you're focused on, however, then you're not focusing on the right thing...
Your chances of winning will be exactly the same each week if you keep picking the same numbers. In fact, there's nothing you can do to change the probability of winning. No matter what set of numbers you pick, it will have an equal probability to win as any other set of numbers you could have picked.
I had briefly started to investigate the idea of analyzing lottery results to try to find patterns. My theory was that the machines(or their operating procedures) might be flawed, and give some numbers a greater or lesser chance of showing up. Such a flaw should be identifiable from a large set of historical results, and using it to guide number selection should vastly improve your odds. But given where the odds start, vastly improving them is still a tiny chance of winning.
But well, if you had access to ticket data, you might know which numbers and combinations are more popular amongst players. Choosing less popular combinations gives you a higher chance of NOT SPLITTING THE JACKPOT, at least in those games that are based on a jackpot.
I agree with that last statement. People say that buying lottery tickets is just a tax on the poor and that you should just stop. Well, to a lot of people, buying a lottery ticket and being able to just dream and having that hope of winning, is actually a greater stress reliever than Zanex could ever give you because you have given yourself the ability to win, however small. Now of course don't go spending a lot, but a one or two dollar ticket can do wonders between buying it and the drawing.
It has the opposite effect to none on me. It just pisses me off to not win. There is no value in daydreams, actually negative value, devaluing, disrespect. Reality only not fantasy land! What actually happens in reality is the only thing that matters. Not attempted manipulation by trying to get you to be a citizen of imagination land. Actual Physical Reality ONLY.
The lottery is about thinking up a combination that nobody else has picked. Some the combinations that come up are completely ridiculous. Here's one that comes to mind, 22-24-26-34-35-37, nobody would guess that this combination would come up.
There are 13,983,816 possible sets of numbers that can be drawn for the lottery. One of these possible sets is going to turn up at random. No matter what number set you pick, the probability of that specific set being picked is 1 out of 13,983,816, since your set is one out of that number of possible random sets which might show up. An ordered set (such as 1,2,3,4,5,6) is still one possibility out of 13.983,816 numbers, so the probability for that set is equally likely compared to any other set.
One of the beauties of watching these videos is the knowledge that thousands of mathematical equations and formulae have to work in order for us to see them, and we do. Maths succeeds in letting us see these videos about it. It's a further emphasis of how wonderful and important the world of numbers is to all of us every day.
Once a given number has been drawn for the lottery, it's no less likely for that number to appear again, so if you pick the same number that was drawn last week, you can expect to have the exact same probability of winning as with any other number you could possibly pick. Basically, the moral is that you can't change your probability of winning the lottery; No matter which set of numbers you pick, you'll have exactly the same probability of winning, due to the random nature of drawing a ball.
Exactly, this is what trips most lottery players up. They don't play number's that have previously been drawn. And the combination that sometimes comes out is a mix of previous drawn numbers and a new batch of numbers.
You can literally play 1 through 6 and have the same chance of winning. This is a great way of demonstrating how small the chance is. (Note that if it's a jackpot game, there's probably other people playing thise exact mumbers, so you'd be splitting the jackpot. In this sense, this isn't the optimal strategy, but not due to smaller winning chances.)
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At the beginning of this month, I turned 18 which meant I could play the lottery here in America. I had no intentions of doing so, but my sister decided she would buy me some cheap scratch-off tickets. I won 6 times on one ticket, and none on the other 4 tickets. The odds of winning once on that ticket were 4:1, or so they say. But hey, I went up to the 7/11, collected my $50, and bought my sister coffee haha
I also won 50 bucks on a scratchoff that someone else bought me. Every few months I buy one for myself just for fun, of course I have never reached that high again 😝
I can't agree more with his last statement. It is worth to spend few bucks for all the excitement the whole process of buying the lottery ticket provides. I have won multiple times (small amounts of money, of course) and the gratification is enormous. But people have to manage their expectations, the chances of wining are close to zero.... Funny thing though, random people win the lottery every week (sometimes twice a week). So...Why not ???
But do they though ... do they ? I mean bc really if we all KNEW it was something we couldn't win at- NO ONE would ever "pay to play" a different yet similar example: if we could all TASTE how nasty Mcyuck yuck was for our bodies NOBODY would ever eat it and they'd be outta business😉 but it "SEEMS" fine and the madness continues.
2, 17, 25, 33, 47, 49 and Super ball no 2, play this on German Lotto or play first 6 numbers on any 6/49 lotto, This are very lucky numbers. If any one wins, let me know.
4 years ago, I played pick 4 (here in Dallas, TX) and won $32k, and then a year later, on the exact same date, same game (night pick) won $32k again, and then exactly a year later, hit it for a 3rd time (same game). You can be sure that I will play it again, same date, this year.
Is this true story? I don't want to come out as rude rude but I didn't know pick four could even pay that much out? Did you use your own personal numbers or quick picks? Just curious?
Sure I can know if I don't have a go. I just take note of the numbers I would have picked and I have a 43% chance of sighing in relief when I look up the draw. Probably better than that. Our lottery rewards a payout if you get 3 out of 6 for $5 from a $1 dollar investment. 1 in 185 odds. If you match one and match the "Powerball" 1:74 you get $2 back. Match only the Powerball, you get your dollar back 1:49 odds Lotteries are taxes on the innumerate.
All the people thinking this this took X amount of takes, think. It was done in one take, the lottery ticket was filled in afterwards. I actually hate myself for commenting, but it's a no brainer.
Here in America, the powerball is much, much, much harder to win odds wise. Not only is it out of 59 numbers, but the first number HAS to match as the first number picked (the powerball), on top of matching the rest of the numbers
No it doesn't. The Powerball is a 5+1 drawing. They draw 5 numbers from a pool of 59 numbers plus one additional number from a separate pool of 35. They may draw the +1 first (I've never watched the drawing) but it's still separate from the other 5 numbers.
The issue comes with defining "random." Random means that previous results have no impact on future results, so that there is as much a chance of picking a number one off as there is any other number. What looks "random" to us, meaning significantly different, isn't actually random. You can use the same math to figure the odds of getting one-offs, as stated in the video, 2 in however many balls (1 off 5 would be 4 or 6, so 2 winners.) You'll find your odds are significantly better, obviously.
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There's a strategy because a lottery employee was giving his family members the strategy 2 members won twice. They investigated by an anonymous person and fired him. This happened 6 or 7 yrs ago.
It also comes down to the fact that the method of using the balls to choose the winners still being used is simply due to the randomness. We see the same number appearing and think well it cant really be random then can it, but if the same number appears often and in a short time it actually proves it is random. If we chose to switch it to a computerized system it would only be simulating randomness and a real pattern would appear it may be hard to find but it could be used to cheat.
+Peter Timowreef in 1969 they didn't use calculator to go on the moon, they used something else called a slide rule. calculator weren't invented. So they went on the Moon without cheat code!
I would like to see more gambling number videos, specifically about people who have historically taken advantage of biases in roulette wheels, but other casino stuff would also be welcome.
We thought about this the other week in our maths class, this was a good video, only thing you missed out is the probability of winning any money (getting 3 numbers or more) :( to find that would be more complicated but still doable
You can do it either way as long as you're consistent. This was the "order matters" approach. So there were 6! good orderings out of a possible 49*48*47*46*45*44 orderings. The "order doesn't matter" approach says there's 1 good combination out of (49 6) possible combinations. Either method results in the same calculation.
I forgot where I saw this but it was like "Trying to get rich by winning the lottery is like trying to commit suicide by flying on commercial airlines and hoping for a crash."
Oh, sorry. Somehow I read that as why is the grand prize $500,000,000 when the ticket price is $2. And it would not surprise me if there was some sort of regulation that capped the number of lottery tickets an individual could buy each week, otherwise I'm sure some very wealthy investors who happen to have $30 million just lying around would do precisely that....
That's why I know many people who refer to it as "the idiot tax". The less you're aware of the odds and the math behind it, the more "tax" you have to pay ...
millions of people waste way more money on drugs, alcohol, and cigarettes with a guarantee that the result will be harmful, so for me as a non drinker and a non smoker where is the harm of spending some of the money that would be wasted on those vices, on a couple lottery tickets and get to enjoy wild hopes and dreams that might actually come true?? ,,,btw i have won a couple hundreds dollars already,
@@devilliar3786 lol spent a couple dollars, its also funny because you commented now when just last night I won another couple grand and I've been sober, I have won more than I've spent, but I went in knowing the risk, it's either win big or lose, and as an adult I made that choice, ain't that how freedom is supposed to work?
We had a really witty video that listed the chances to become a millionaire if you play each of the Dutch lotteries a while ago. One lottery Had a chance of 1 in 345 billion. Described as: We go to China, tell a random person to pick a number under 345. Then you go, talk to one chinese person, and guess a number, your chances are the same as that of becoming a millionaire in that lottery. Always liked that description :D Link for the dutchies: xuuYMikMSEk
Divide the prize value by the odds of winning (eg. 1000000/13982816.) If the result is less than what you paid for the ticket (which it is, or they wouldn't be running the lottery in the first place) then statistically, you're throwing money in a hole. As opposed to not playing, in which case you're not throwing money in a hole.
Many people having trouble understanding that entering the same numbers each week does not increase your chances of winning, i've given quite a few crash courses in combinations and permutations to some of them and they weren't happy once they realised it's 14 million to one in every instance.
In Italy Superenalotto you have 1/622 million cause you choose 6/90 numbers. And biggest prize was like 213 million euro. Even if you win, lottery organizers make sure you lost more than 400 million.
Slightly better odds at winning with multiple tickets for one drawing but you have a better chance of winning more money by playing the one ticket 52 times. Multiple tickets in one lottery if you don't win that's it - 52 drawings 52 chances to win a prize
Here in Brazil we have a saying about people that play the lottery: "Lottery is a tax for people who don't know probability". For me it's quite true. And here the lottery is worst, it's played with 60 numbers...
Lightning is NOT caused by clouds, it is an electrical discharge between the ground and sky. It is caused by static build up. It is just much easier to build this charge with clouds. While a "bolt from the blue" is highly unlikely, its still possible.
his calculations was based on a combination of numbers where it should be a permutation the difference being in a combination the order matters in a permutation it does not so unless lotto is played that the order you have has to match the order they are drawn so his answer should be divided by 6x5x4x3x2x1=720 which changes the odds of a combination of 6 numbers to a permutation
With that money they'd be better off buying syndicates, that way their 60 quid will go to a 600 pound ticket, only thing is you have to share the winnings with 10 other people but if the jackpot is high enough that doesn't really matter.
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Probability has many factors it's hard to assume. I would say probability of winning the lottery is far more easy to calculate than getting struck by lightning. Climate, location, holding something conductive, insulated by a structure, density of man-made/natural structures, etc.
I'm one of those who get one lottery ticket every week. Now I think of the problem this way. If I don't get a ticket my chances of winning are zero. With one ticket I have one in 15.4 million chance, which is infinitely greater than zero. Finite bet gives infinitely greater chance, sweet!
Dont know if my math is right, but assuming no one get 3 balls, one person at least get, 4, 5, 5 with bonus, and he get alone the 6 numbers, the amount of money bet would need to be 1848820000000 £ (counting his money) to make the guy be able to break even. With no one getting the prevrious stuff and the guy getting the 6 numbers alone, he would need 26892000 £ (counting his money being betted to make the guy break even
I have a question/dilemma about a math problem for you math experts: There's a sports lottery game where there's 14 football matches (each match can end in 3 ways, the local team wins=1, there's a draw=X, or the visiting team wins=2). Let's say for instance I have to guess 10 of those matches (1, X or 2). What are the chances of randomly guessing any of those 10 matches out of 14? I looked on various sites and they used the formula ''3 to the power of 10'' resulting in 1 in 59049 chance but it's incorrect and it's a ridiculously large number too, they calculated the chances assuming there's 10 matches in total and not 14. How can I calculate step by step the correct chances of guessing 10 out of 14 matches?
Not sure what you mean. I was talking about looking at the ratio of winnings vs the chance of it occurring. If it is less than 1 then that bet is a losing bet, but if it is higher than 1 then that bet is a winning bet. Since the lottery does not have a set winning, it grows if no one wins, than there is a point where it is a good bet and a point when its a bad bet. Time has nothing to do with anything. The house always wins because all games in a casino are losing bets.
Most of the time these jackpots are in Megaball or Powerball lotteries. The odds of winning these jackpots are significantly less than normal lotteries because that sixth ball must be drawn sixth instead of in any order, which limits the number of winning combinations. (Numerator is now 5*4*3*2*1*1 instead of 6*5*4*3*2*1)
+FortNikitaBullion I thought about the exact same thing before scrolling down to the comments section. I was thinking maybe half of the ticket's value, but only if you were to buy another one. Like, if the ticket were to cost 2 pounds, you wouldn't be able to simply take a pound back, but you would be able to buy the next ticket for 1 pound. Seems like a nice marketing idea.
Where I live we have a drawing which involves picking 6 out of 49 numbers. Even though I play it every so often the best I have done is match 2 out of 6. Just crummy luck. I can't even get 5 out of 35. Luck doesn't come my way in the lottery except for the small wins on scratch tickets.
The workaround is that you don't personally buy 14 million tickets, you create a fund that people can invest money in and the fund buys lotto tickets in bulk when the jackpot is high enough that the expected winnings of a ticket after taxes are greater than the ticket price. In fact there are some investment groups that do exactly this. (Even if they don't buy every possible combination, on average the strategy theoretically earns money.)
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Reread #3. "In bigger lotteries, the odds are worse." British Lottery: Just under 14 million to one. US Powerball: Just over 175 million to one. But lets do the math again. 1) You need to buy 175M tickets now (Not 14M) 2) In the US, Lottery is taxed. You lose 25% of the winnings. 3) Multiple people can still win. Right now, you're spending $175M to get $162.5M after tax, which you may need to split.
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TO THOSE CLAIMING IT'S FAKE: Yes, it is.
They first shot the video of him picking numbers at random. Then they shot a video of him choosing those numbers as his picks. You are shown these two shots in reverse order.
If that's what you're focused on, however, then you're not focusing on the right thing...
Viktor Nowe none :| But lightning and asteroids are rare
Manabender oops sorry wrong comment
+Der,ek Conway
He was just making a joke dude
+Manabender no, they did 13,983,816 takes duh
Your chances of winning will be exactly the same each week if you keep picking the same numbers. In fact, there's nothing you can do to change the probability of winning. No matter what set of numbers you pick, it will have an equal probability to win as any other set of numbers you could have picked.
I had briefly started to investigate the idea of analyzing lottery results to try to find patterns. My theory was that the machines(or their operating procedures) might be flawed, and give some numbers a greater or lesser chance of showing up. Such a flaw should be identifiable from a large set of historical results, and using it to guide number selection should vastly improve your odds.
But given where the odds start, vastly improving them is still a tiny chance of winning.
Key to lotto: The numbers are not random
@@animeactivated Why would they not be random? They make more money this way.
But well, if you had access to ticket data, you might know which numbers and combinations are more popular amongst players. Choosing less popular combinations gives you a higher chance of NOT SPLITTING THE JACKPOT, at least in those games that are based on a jackpot.
I agree with that last statement.
People say that buying lottery tickets is just a tax on the poor and that you should just stop. Well, to a lot of people, buying a lottery ticket and being able to just dream and having that hope of winning, is actually a greater stress reliever than Zanex could ever give you because you have given yourself the ability to win, however small. Now of course don't go spending a lot, but a one or two dollar ticket can do wonders between buying it and the drawing.
It has the opposite effect to none on me. It just pisses me off to not win. There is no value in daydreams, actually negative value, devaluing, disrespect. Reality only not fantasy land! What actually happens in reality is the only thing that matters. Not attempted manipulation by trying to get you to be a citizen of imagination land. Actual Physical Reality ONLY.
The lottery is about thinking up a combination that nobody else has picked. Some the combinations that come up are completely ridiculous.
Here's one that comes to mind,
22-24-26-34-35-37, nobody would guess that this combination would come up.
There are 13,983,816 possible sets of numbers that can be drawn for the lottery. One of these possible sets is going to turn up at random. No matter what number set you pick, the probability of that specific set being picked is 1 out of 13,983,816, since your set is one out of that number of possible random sets which might show up. An ordered set (such as 1,2,3,4,5,6) is still one possibility out of 13.983,816 numbers, so the probability for that set is equally likely compared to any other set.
One of the beauties of watching these videos is the knowledge that thousands of mathematical equations and formulae have to work in order for us to see them, and we do. Maths succeeds in letting us see these videos about it. It's a further emphasis of how wonderful and important the world of numbers is to all of us every day.
Once a given number has been drawn for the lottery, it's no less likely for that number to appear again, so if you pick the same number that was drawn last week, you can expect to have the exact same probability of winning as with any other number you could possibly pick.
Basically, the moral is that you can't change your probability of winning the lottery; No matter which set of numbers you pick, you'll have exactly the same probability of winning, due to the random nature of drawing a ball.
Exactly, this is what trips most lottery players up. They don't play number's that have previously been drawn. And the combination that sometimes comes out is a mix of previous drawn numbers and a new batch of numbers.
You can literally play 1 through 6 and have the same chance of winning. This is a great way of demonstrating how small the chance is. (Note that if it's a jackpot game, there's probably other people playing thise exact mumbers, so you'd be splitting the jackpot. In this sense, this isn't the optimal strategy, but not due to smaller winning chances.)
what the hell this guy should play the lottery more often... he is amazingly accurate at picking a random ball
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Ik wtf?!
Is there any mathematical theory that suggests that someone with more extensive mathematical knowledge has a greater chance of winning?
@@AFFECTIngclips Yes. Look up renato gianella.
That was slight of hand
I live in germany, just got that video in my page and hopefully its a sign and ill pick those numbers, wish me luck
At the beginning of this month, I turned 18 which meant I could play the lottery here in America. I had no intentions of doing so, but my sister decided she would buy me some cheap scratch-off tickets. I won 6 times on one ticket, and none on the other 4 tickets. The odds of winning once on that ticket were 4:1, or so they say. But hey, I went up to the 7/11, collected my $50, and bought my sister coffee haha
Now your 28!
@@SooSkiTzO_YT time flies😅
@@Ily-mx4sc sure does
I also won 50 bucks on a scratchoff that someone else bought me. Every few months I buy one for myself just for fun, of course I have never reached that high again 😝
you did a great job actually answering his question, and I really like how you didn't use a basic and trivial insult as a response to his question
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I can't agree more with his last statement. It is worth to spend few bucks for all the excitement the whole process of buying the lottery ticket provides.
I have won multiple times (small amounts of money, of course) and the gratification is enormous. But people have to manage their expectations, the chances of wining are close to zero.... Funny thing though, random people win the lottery every week (sometimes twice a week). So...Why not ???
Might as well give it a go! (Within reason obviously)
+Kilak I think his point is just to play in moderation more than anything
better have something to lose than nothing at all, am I right? lol
But do they though ... do they ? I mean bc really if we all KNEW it was something we couldn't win at- NO ONE would ever "pay to play" a different yet similar example: if we could all TASTE how nasty Mcyuck yuck was for our bodies NOBODY would ever eat it and they'd be outta business😉 but it "SEEMS" fine and the madness continues.
A couple of times I get 3/6 or 4/7 numbers right and even that is gratifying on it's own as the chances of that are still very low as well.
2, 17, 25, 33, 47, 49 and Super ball no 2, play this on German Lotto or play first 6 numbers on any 6/49 lotto, This are very lucky numbers.
If any one wins, let me know.
He actually picked the balls out first, acted like they were the ones he wanted, and filmed the first part of the video afterwards.
I'm so happy I found you guys. Finally some one who enjoys math and numbers as much as I do. ;)
As a Physics graduate from Nottingham that lecture hall brings back memories!!!!
Great story
4 years ago, I played pick 4 (here in Dallas, TX) and won $32k, and then a year later, on the exact same date, same game (night pick) won $32k again, and then exactly a year later, hit it for a 3rd time (same game). You can be sure that I will play it again, same date, this year.
What is the date and the number ?
I play pick 4 but never win
Im from vietnam tho
coincident
Is this true story? I don't want to come out as rude rude but I didn't know pick four could even pay that much out? Did you use your own personal numbers or quick picks? Just curious?
"you can't win if you don't play"
true but virtually irrelevant.
"you can't LOSE if you don't play"
true and absolutely certain.
+charles ranalli Oooh I like that. I'm going to use that from now on.
what is "virtually irrelevant" supposed to mean exactly? sounds like you're just being dismissive to push your own opinion
Well you'll never never know, if you never have a go...
I disagree. True and completely relevant. Improbable, but relevant.
Sure I can know if I don't have a go. I just take note of the numbers I would have picked and I have a 43% chance of sighing in relief when I look up the draw. Probably better than that.
Our lottery rewards a payout if you get 3 out of 6 for $5 from a $1 dollar investment. 1 in 185 odds. If you match one and match the "Powerball" 1:74 you get $2 back. Match only the Powerball, you get your dollar back 1:49 odds
Lotteries are taxes on the innumerate.
Dreaming about what I'd with my lottery winnings and waiting for the weekend to watch football are the only things that give my life any meaning.
Damn that’s actually really sad
same.
All the people thinking this this took X amount of takes, think. It was done in one take, the lottery ticket was filled in afterwards. I actually hate myself for commenting, but it's a no brainer.
Here in America, the powerball is much, much, much harder to win odds wise. Not only is it out of 59 numbers, but the first number HAS to match as the first number picked (the powerball), on top of matching the rest of the numbers
No it doesn't. The Powerball is a 5+1 drawing. They draw 5 numbers from a pool of 59 numbers plus one additional number from a separate pool of 35. They may draw the +1 first (I've never watched the drawing) but it's still separate from the other 5 numbers.
No one cares about america
Fintuber
you do, or you wouldn't have commented.
purplexenno think again
+John McMillen In australia now its 6/40 + powerball 1/20
The issue comes with defining "random." Random means that previous results have no impact on future results, so that there is as much a chance of picking a number one off as there is any other number. What looks "random" to us, meaning significantly different, isn't actually random. You can use the same math to figure the odds of getting one-offs, as stated in the video, 2 in however many balls (1 off 5 would be 4 or 6, so 2 winners.) You'll find your odds are significantly better, obviously.
Hi
I stand a better chance of hitting the lottery than being struck by lightening. I am not standing in a thunderstorm with a metal rod
D'Saint Yoder well if you did that, you’d be cheating, by enticing the lightning to strike the rod lol
why is this guy never in numberphile videos anymore?
+GroovingPict He's not a mathematician, he's a physicist. And most don't return after a video or a group.
+SoftwareFTW well they should bring him back for some more... I liked him
+GroovingPict he's on Brady's other channel, Sixty Symbols quite often. Or at least used to be, dunno about lately.
Actually, he won the lottery
And became a part time physicist.
I love your videos! Passionate, interesting, simplistic and very entertaining :D
Hi
You should pick 1-2-3-4-5-6. Same chance to win, but if you did people would say wow what are the odds!
Bad choice, same chance of winning than other choices, but you have to share the jackpot with more people in that unlikely case.
bighoov1 .that is the most popular combination selected because everyone thinks no one else will pick those numbers so it has the opposite effect.
Don't suggest this. I have seen people actually do that at the counter
Each Year 14,000 People Follow My Strategy and Win More Money Than They Have Ever Won In Their Life from The Lotto > *t. co/LuW1m5oJ3r*
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There's a strategy because a lottery employee was giving his family members the strategy 2 members won twice. They investigated by an anonymous person and fired him. This happened 6 or 7 yrs ago.
It also comes down to the fact that the method of using the balls to choose the winners still being used is simply due to the randomness. We see the same number appearing and think well it cant really be random then can it, but if the same number appears often and in a short time it actually proves it is random. If we chose to switch it to a computerized system it would only be simulating randomness and a real pattern would appear it may be hard to find but it could be used to cheat.
Why do teachers always say calculators are cheating..?
"Yeay we got to the Moon but not really 'cause they cheated"
+Peter Timowreef
Teachers are cheaters. Anagram of teacher is cheater.
+Peter Timowreef in 1969 they didn't use calculator to go on the moon, they used something else called a slide rule. calculator weren't invented. So they went on the Moon without cheat code!
+Peter Timowreef because when you're a grown up, it's not like you'll be walking around all day with a calculator in your pocket.
oh wait.....
Alexei Elfenbein
Robert Horker
If that the were the case, for which you have no proof or sources, it'd be that generation that raised and taught this one.
I would like to see more gambling number videos, specifically about people who have historically taken advantage of biases in roulette wheels, but other casino stuff would also be welcome.
We thought about this the other week in our maths class, this was a good video, only thing you missed out is the probability of winning any money (getting 3 numbers or more) :( to find that would be more complicated but still doable
"You said one out of 14 million yeah? Tell me this is it."
"If I tell you what happens, it won't happen"
idk about UK, but in the US you have to pick them correctly in order, which stretches the odds even further.
You can do it either way as long as you're consistent.
This was the "order matters" approach. So there were 6! good orderings out of a possible 49*48*47*46*45*44 orderings.
The "order doesn't matter" approach says there's 1 good combination out of (49 6) possible combinations.
Either method results in the same calculation.
You assume every segment of the video was recorded in the order you watched them?
I forgot where I saw this but it was like "Trying to get rich by winning the lottery is like trying to commit suicide by flying on commercial airlines and hoping for a crash."
you are actually more likley to crash on a plane than to win the lotttery
the magic of editing
This made me happy to watch the video and your technique or mathnique. Thank you so much
Oh, sorry. Somehow I read that as why is the grand prize $500,000,000 when the ticket price is $2. And it would not surprise me if there was some sort of regulation that capped the number of lottery tickets an individual could buy each week, otherwise I'm sure some very wealthy investors who happen to have $30 million just lying around would do precisely that....
That's why I know many people who refer to it as "the idiot tax".
The less you're aware of the odds and the math behind it, the more "tax" you have to pay ...
millions of people waste way more money on drugs, alcohol, and cigarettes with a guarantee that the result will be harmful, so for me as a non drinker and a non smoker where is the harm of spending some of the money that would be wasted on those vices, on a couple lottery tickets and get to enjoy wild hopes and dreams that might actually come true?? ,,,btw i have won a couple hundreds dollars already,
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s You won a couple hundred, but throughout your life, how much did you spend to win that couple hundred?
@@devilliar3786 lol spent a couple dollars, its also funny because you commented now when just last night I won another couple grand and I've been sober, I have won more than I've spent, but I went in knowing the risk, it's either win big or lose, and as an adult I made that choice, ain't that how freedom is supposed to work?
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s Anyone that feels like they have to point out that they are an adult most likely isn’t. I think you are delusional, and dishonest.
@@user-qh6nf2ev9s As a gambling addict I look down on people who enjoy cigarettes and alcohol.
That's why I like numberphile. They are a bit more creative than the run of the mill slide show for explaining.
2:55
34
Love your video! Thanks for taking the time and the advice!
I can’t wait to win the mega jackpot price tomorrow thank you universe
We had a really witty video that listed the chances to become a millionaire if you play each of the Dutch lotteries a while ago.
One lottery Had a chance of 1 in 345 billion. Described as:
We go to China, tell a random person to pick a number under 345. Then you go, talk to one chinese person, and guess a number, your chances are the same as that of becoming a millionaire in that lottery. Always liked that description :D
Link for the dutchies: xuuYMikMSEk
Thanks, now I can convince my friend Josef to spend less than 1/8 of his paycheck on lotto.
you should do a video about the numbers in lost
4 8 15 16 23 42
and if they have any significance in the real world
'Soooooo you're telling me there's a chance?'
That is for me winner
I know exactly what you mean by this!🤣🤣🤣
Divide the prize value by the odds of winning (eg. 1000000/13982816.) If the result is less than what you paid for the ticket (which it is, or they wouldn't be running the lottery in the first place) then statistically, you're throwing money in a hole. As opposed to not playing, in which case you're not throwing money in a hole.
Many people having trouble understanding that entering the same numbers each week does not increase your chances of winning, i've given quite a few crash courses in combinations and permutations to some of them and they weren't happy once they realised it's 14 million to one in every instance.
I WISH my odds at winning the lotto were only 1/14 mil
In the States, the powerball odds are 1/170 mil
In Italy Superenalotto you have 1/622 million cause you choose 6/90 numbers. And biggest prize was like 213 million euro. Even if you win, lottery organizers make sure you lost more than 400 million.
Now it’s 1/302 mil in the states
I had a friend who was a policeman, he said scratchoffs have a system.....he was always winning.
Find out what the system is.
I'm convinced instead of buying 1 a week, you should buy 52 for the same draw, once a year. Better odds of winning.
+Polpop Poplop which one of you?
Slightly better odds at winning with multiple tickets for one drawing but you have a better chance of winning more money by playing the one ticket 52 times. Multiple tickets in one lottery if you don't win that's it - 52 drawings 52 chances to win a prize
Here in Brazil we have a saying about people that play the lottery: "Lottery is a tax for people who don't know probability". For me it's quite true. And here the lottery is worst, it's played with 60 numbers...
Lightning is NOT caused by clouds, it is an electrical discharge between the ground and sky. It is caused by static build up. It is just much easier to build this charge with clouds. While a "bolt from the blue" is highly unlikely, its still possible.
You do get cloud to cloud as well though
why didn't you just use the formula for combinations? much easier
if im not mistaken the possible combinations without using a number twice is almost 10 bilion for 6 digits and 49 possible numbers.
@@alspezial2747 you are mistaken
@fanta2xc
It's the same formula really, only rearranged
C(n,k)
= (n(n-1)(n-2)...(n-k+1)) / (k(k-1)(k-2)...)
= (n/k) * (n-1 / k-1) * ...
What the point of this video if he himself is not a lottery jackpot winner?
You got me. Right ?????
don't understand anything
Chances of picking one number 49/6. 2nd number 48/5 and so on. Multiply these numbers up.
his calculations was based on a combination of numbers where it should be a permutation the difference being in a combination the order matters in a permutation it does not so unless lotto is played that the order you have has to match the order they are drawn so his answer should be divided by 6x5x4x3x2x1=720 which changes the odds of a combination of 6 numbers to a permutation
I like how you put a period after the question and a question mark after the statement.
Working in a supermarket, many people come in and spend fortunes on the lottery EVERY SINGLE WEEK. Some even spend 60 pounds twice a week... idiotic!
If they invested that £120/week in to shares and property they would actually be able to build up quite a lot of wealth. xD
With that money they'd be better off buying syndicates, that way their 60 quid will go to a 600 pound ticket, only thing is you have to share the winnings with 10 other people but if the jackpot is high enough that doesn't really matter.
"yep ill pick 19 that was a good year for me", he got laid that year.
I've seen many ppl win the lotto than seen anyone be struck by lightning so far
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the chances is low but never zero.. my dad won 50k last year lottery 😃 I'm so hyped and want to try myself now.
Probability has many factors it's hard to assume. I would say probability of winning the lottery is far more easy to calculate than getting struck by lightning. Climate, location, holding something conductive, insulated by a structure, density of man-made/natural structures, etc.
I'm one of those who get one lottery ticket every week. Now I think of the problem this way. If I don't get a ticket my chances of winning are zero. With one ticket I have one in 15.4 million chance, which is infinitely greater than zero. Finite bet gives infinitely greater chance, sweet!
recording the ball picks and then recording the winning numbers? :)
Lottery ticket winners are upon luck and fate I do belive so nothing else
What if you won the lottery, then got struck by lightning.
That would be awesome.😁
Dont know if my math is right, but assuming no one get 3 balls, one person at least get, 4, 5, 5 with bonus, and he get alone the 6 numbers, the amount of money bet would need to be 1848820000000 £ (counting his money) to make the guy be able to break even. With no one getting the prevrious stuff and the guy getting the 6 numbers alone, he would need 26892000 £ (counting his money being betted to make the guy break even
I have a question/dilemma about a math problem for you math experts: There's a sports lottery game where there's 14 football matches (each match can end in 3 ways, the local team wins=1, there's a draw=X, or the visiting team wins=2). Let's say for instance I have to guess 10 of those matches (1, X or 2). What are the chances of randomly guessing any of those 10 matches out of 14? I looked on various sites and they used the formula ''3 to the power of 10'' resulting in 1 in 59049 chance but it's incorrect and it's a ridiculously large number too, they calculated the chances assuming there's 10 matches in total and not 14. How can I calculate step by step the correct chances of guessing 10 out of 14 matches?
My university operational research teacher once told the class "the lottery is a tax for idiots. I will laugh in your face if you do it"
Adam White Voluntary tax on poor and uneducated.
not exactly, some people can change their life if they win
like me
I will be american citizen
I would tell him to laugh at me then. I don't care I'm still gonna play.
He was absolutely right. But the thing is that these idiots win the jackpot every now and then.!!!
The odds are insane. . . . but yet somebody wins almost every week.
This is because there are 300 million people in 🇺🇸
Winning the Lottery is not just a out the odds. It's about "Law Of Attraction!"
Athena Millay Did it work for you?
@@parveshdhookhit3431 where for art thou?
Athena Millay total B.S!
@@josephsvennson5694 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Yes agreed ~ the power of belief!
A ball with a number written on it for the lottery has an electronic circuit inside it, which is magnetized by remote control.
I'm choosing this guy to pick my next lottery numbers!
its more likely to die on the way to buy the lottery ticket than winning the whole lottery
but it's more likely to win the whole lottery than solving the Riemann Hypothesis.
Is it? How do you calculate the probability of solving the Riemann Hypothesis?
The probability of solving the Riemann Hypothesis: volume of "brain" divided by number of pages of a proof for RH
I declare winning lotto …….by grace through faith
A man help me with this.
And I won a lottery
@@Vinolia_Mashego Get in contact with him on WhatsApp
@@Vinolia_Mashego +2347011079958
@@Vinolia_Mashego don’t do it, it’s a scam
It's 50/50. Either you win or you don't.
Not sure what you mean. I was talking about looking at the ratio of winnings vs the chance of it occurring. If it is less than 1 then that bet is a losing bet, but if it is higher than 1 then that bet is a winning bet. Since the lottery does not have a set winning, it grows if no one wins, than there is a point where it is a good bet and a point when its a bad bet. Time has nothing to do with anything. The house always wins because all games in a casino are losing bets.
Most of the time these jackpots are in Megaball or Powerball lotteries. The odds of winning these jackpots are significantly less than normal lotteries because that sixth ball must be drawn sixth instead of in any order, which limits the number of winning combinations. (Numerator is now 5*4*3*2*1*1 instead of 6*5*4*3*2*1)
I've only gotten 3/6 numbers right when choosing my own numbers a couple times now and I've only been playing a few months.
There should be a small prize for no numbers matching, maybe giving you back 10% of your ticket.
+FortNikitaBullion I thought about the exact same thing before scrolling down to the comments section. I was thinking maybe half of the ticket's value, but only if you were to buy another one. Like, if the ticket were to cost 2 pounds, you wouldn't be able to simply take a pound back, but you would be able to buy the next ticket for 1 pound.
Seems like a nice marketing idea.
That's probably too expensive to sustain.
+FortNikitaBullion but 5 or 10% off next ticket wouldn't be that bad or if you save up 10 no number winning tickets you get a free ticket
FortNikitaBullion Some games such as New York's Pick 10 give prizes for matching no numbers because it's actually difficult to not match any number.
Where I live we have a drawing which involves picking 6 out of 49 numbers. Even though I play it every so often the best I have done is match 2 out of 6. Just crummy luck. I can't even get 5 out of 35. Luck doesn't come my way in the lottery except for the small wins on scratch tickets.
Numbers (in the hands of a numberphile), don’t lie!
The workaround is that you don't personally buy 14 million tickets, you create a fund that people can invest money in and the fund buys lotto tickets in bulk when the jackpot is high enough that the expected winnings of a ticket after taxes are greater than the ticket price. In fact there are some investment groups that do exactly this. (Even if they don't buy every possible combination, on average the strategy theoretically earns money.)
Lottery is tax on the poor!
So is global warming.
So is tax
this is so damn staged
Your chances of winning are like everyone else’s: nil.
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If you could fill out a lottery card at the superhuman speed of 1 second per card, 13,983,816 cards would take you 160+ days...
02:35 the bloke is cheating somehow there is no way that you could do this live pick all 6 numbers out of a container.
Yeah, he's stirring with the ball already in his hand, but that's not the point of the video...
I would've said that he just wrote down the numbers after he chose them and edited it around.
Nooooo really??!!
Play this
8 11 20 34 45 48
and win
I will play this number tomorrow hope we win amen
we've got no balls at all XD
Hi there, what are the odds of two people winning the jackpot for the same draw, your help is greatly appreciated.
the chances to win is low but never zero.. my dad won 50k last year lottery 😃 I'm so hyped and want to try myself now.
~He helped me to manifest lottery numbers and I won $10 million dollars ~
*✛2348105199950👈♻️♻️≧﹏≦亲爱的你好.
Very educational! Thank you!
I want to win Lottery!!
Jackpot - 7 Times in my lifetime!!
Yeah, me too.....£10 each time..!!
Who needs a 401k. Invest in the lottery.
Better than mortgage backed CDs
I so happy i found you guy
Reread #3.
"In bigger lotteries, the odds are worse."
British Lottery: Just under 14 million to one.
US Powerball: Just over 175 million to one.
But lets do the math again.
1) You need to buy 175M tickets now (Not 14M)
2) In the US, Lottery is taxed. You lose 25% of the winnings.
3) Multiple people can still win.
Right now, you're spending $175M to get $162.5M after tax, which you may need to split.
1:14 is it weird that I heard the "ta-daa!" sound in my head?
Actually, you have an infinitely greater chance of winning than someone who does not buy a ticket ;)