Binomial distributions | Probabilities of probabilities, part 1

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มี.ค. 2020
  • Part 2: • Why “probability of 0”...
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ความคิดเห็น • 2.2K

  • @tyrelllaszlo6024
    @tyrelllaszlo6024 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1401

    Also a good approach: reading the 1 star reviews and checking for grammar/spelling and signs of stupidity.

    • @Cathowl
      @Cathowl 4 ปีที่แล้ว +317

      My favorite tactic is to read the 3-star reviews and see what people who partially liked their experience and partially didin't had to complain about.

    • @Thmyris
      @Thmyris 4 ปีที่แล้ว +38

      I always do this. Definitely worth spending time on.

    • @andrewdunbar828
      @andrewdunbar828 4 ปีที่แล้ว +138

      It's worth doing that for the top reviews as well as the bottom reviews. "It's great!" and "It sucks" with no details are equally useless reviews.

    • @alessazoe
      @alessazoe 4 ปีที่แล้ว +77

      I tend to read the low ratings and check against what I want from the product. If they only rant about stuff I don’t care about or don’t affect my use case, a product with less positive reviews than another might still be the best option for me.
      Especially great tactic when the whole range of products you can choose from is rather inexpensive plastic probably crappy quality stuff from china and no high quality product with a higher price and/or higher standard production place at all. Or there are some, but they have especially bad ratings since buyers are more pissed off from a product not being decent when they paid more for it while you would expect a bad experience when you buy cheap.

    • @LordEvrey
      @LordEvrey 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Also sampling the worst reviews and figure out how plausible they are.

  • @Aquanistic
    @Aquanistic 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5371

    Sooo.... who is going to write a Chrome Extension to do the math for us when shopping on Amazon?

    • @ronswanson195
      @ronswanson195 4 ปีที่แล้ว +318

      I am wondering if Amazon doesn't already do something like this when ordering by pertinence...

    • @ChrisBryantMusic
      @ChrisBryantMusic 4 ปีที่แล้ว +611

      I like this idea. I think I’m actually going to do it

    • @SebSharma
      @SebSharma 4 ปีที่แล้ว +186

      @@ChrisBryantMusic Could you share it if you do

    • @grantstenger6182
      @grantstenger6182 4 ปีที่แล้ว +51

      This should be a more highly liked comment, such a cool idea!

    • @agamkohli3888
      @agamkohli3888 4 ปีที่แล้ว +81

      this is brilliant. I’m gonna make an Opera (my browser of choice) extension for this.

  • @JohnnyJackPompolla
    @JohnnyJackPompolla 4 ปีที่แล้ว +732

    Your animations have become astoundingly good and nuanced over the years. The way all the (50 choose 48) outcomes were displayed, starting slow, going faster in the middle and then ending slowly again... THAT'S a satisfying detail.

    • @eccentricOrange
      @eccentricOrange 4 ปีที่แล้ว +26

      That's a great observation (and yes I do really appreciate the detail and easter eggs that Mr. Sanderson puts into his videos, in various forms and not just in animations) but it's a fairly common detail. In fact, Google advises using 'easing' for their Material Design elements ( material.io/design/motion/speed.html#easing ).
      Normally I'd not bother pointing out a MINUTE DETAIL to somebody (like that their observation is fairly common) but you clearly have an eye for detail so I think you may enjoy learning more about it... :)

  • @charusingh2159
    @charusingh2159 2 ปีที่แล้ว +71

    This channel is a gift to math community,
    never seen a better explainer than Grant.

  • @jamez6398
    @jamez6398 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1751

    "Which one of these are better? Here's a three part series to answer that question."

    • @CreepyMagician
      @CreepyMagician 4 ปีที่แล้ว +136

      At least we can be thankful that we got a practical strategy without having to wait. :-)

    • @nonamehere1626
      @nonamehere1626 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      RIP me taking advantage of sales.

    • @Beny123
      @Beny123 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      CogitoErgoCogitoSum he is the result of a very traditional system of education. The difference seems to be how rigorous his training was.

    • @cevs3123
      @cevs3123 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @CogitoErgoCogitoSum Burger King, McDonald's or neither?

    • @cityuser
      @cityuser 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      We got the answer, the three part video is about "Why is this one better than the others?"

  • @kostantinos2297
    @kostantinos2297 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1025

    "Let's choose a random number": 0.42
    Certainly not deliberate!
    Also, appreciated the Tesla pun with the cars. "Nikola" lol

    • @wodddj
      @wodddj 4 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      what's the reference of 0.42?

    • @tejing2001
      @tejing2001 4 ปีที่แล้ว +115

      @@wodddj Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. The answer to life, the universe, and everything is 42.

    • @wodddj
      @wodddj 4 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      @@tejing2001 Thanks

    • @niklasl4180
      @niklasl4180 4 ปีที่แล้ว +34

      Maybe just 420

    • @ganaraminukshuk0
      @ganaraminukshuk0 4 ปีที่แล้ว +26

      The ultimate irony is that Nikola Motor Company and Tesla Incorporated are two separate entities. Seriously.

  • @subasurf
    @subasurf 3 ปีที่แล้ว +128

    I did my masters in statistics an I still find these types of videos invaluable to refresh my own intuition.

    • @CodamATW
      @CodamATW 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      As a math major, I find these videos nice, but I feel like the proof behind the binomial formula gives me more insight than the «interpreting the formula» part does. How do you relate to that?

    • @MathPhysicsEngineering
      @MathPhysicsEngineering ปีที่แล้ว +4

      For those who are interested in detailed analysis and proof of the binomial expansion formula, I would recommend looking up on my channel the video called:" The Binomial Expansion Formula Derivation and Proof"

  • @benwinstanleymusic
    @benwinstanleymusic 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Your level of clarity when explaining stuff is so refreshing! Your videos are a pleasure to watch, I’m excited for parts 2 and 3

  • @ardiris2715
    @ardiris2715 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1157

    When I see ten perfect ratings, I assume ten friends of the seller bought the item, gave the item a perfect rating as "Verified Buyers", and then received refunds offline.

    • @tim40gabby25
      @tim40gabby25 4 ปีที่แล้ว +59

      I'm reminded of recently handing in a bunch of positive feedback - the receiver assumed it was a cherry picked subsample entirely because of the uniformity. Matters of assumed selection bias are tricky.

    • @AlanTheBeast100
      @AlanTheBeast100 4 ปีที่แล้ว +59

      People have to start somewhere. I used to sell used books, CDs and DVDs on Amazon and got nothing but good ratings from the start to end. Then I ran out of books. Which was the plan.

    • @ardiris2715
      @ardiris2715 4 ปีที่แล้ว +16

      @@AlanTheBeast100 That is no reason to game the rating system.

    • @Rekko82
      @Rekko82 4 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      Sellers with 10,000 feedback with 99 % positive rating are quite likely to cheat because they already have lots of positive ratings. Sellers with few ratings wanna give the best service.

    • @obi-wankenobi9871
      @obi-wankenobi9871 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      @@Rekko82 Sellers with tons of good reviews have a lot to loose though.

  • @erick_ftw
    @erick_ftw 4 ปีที่แล้ว +937

    "Which one should you buy from?"
    The one with the prime checkmark lol

    • @wesleymays1931
      @wesleymays1931 4 ปีที่แล้ว +76

      The one with 100% and 10 ratings because it's 3Blue1Brown Publishing.

    • @UVjoint
      @UVjoint 4 ปีที่แล้ว +21

      I've actually started doing the opposite. I don't have a Prime account, but I noticed that if I buy items with the Prime checkmark and choose shipping at a normal speed, Amazon just ships the product late and delivers through its Prime delivery subcontractors with the horrible working conditions.

    • @chrishughes3405
      @chrishughes3405 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      don't forget amazon doesn't pay taxes like the rest of us

    • @govamurali2309
      @govamurali2309 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Lol

    • @DanteKG.
      @DanteKG. 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@chrishughes3405 what

  • @KillianDefaoite
    @KillianDefaoite 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    I am a second year applied and computational mathematics student and I can say without a doubt probability is one of the most confusing and counterintuitive areas of mathematics. I can't wait to see how you approach Bayesian statistics in part 2. This video, like all of your others, was very enlightening and thought provoking.

  • @GuppyPal
    @GuppyPal 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    The quality of your videos is off the charts, man. Color coding things in the formula was SO smart and helpful. Really great stuff here.

  • @toshb1384
    @toshb1384 4 ปีที่แล้ว +735

    "i'm not going to make a probability series" - 3B1B

    • @dlahouss
      @dlahouss 4 ปีที่แล้ว +96

      That statement is unlikely

    • @dan00b8
      @dan00b8 4 ปีที่แล้ว +126

      "It's possible, but with probability 0" - 3B1B on Numberphile

    • @petervilla5221
      @petervilla5221 4 ปีที่แล้ว +45

      @@dan00b8 That must have been a rounding error due to inaccurate measuring instruments.

    • @sambishara9300
      @sambishara9300 4 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      @@petervilla5221 Now I think about people as measuring instruments for their opinions. Thanks.

    • @macronencer
      @macronencer 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      It's a chance in a million, as Pratchett would have said.

  • @3blue1brown
    @3blue1brown  4 ปีที่แล้ว +1276

    Part 2 will be out soon. I'm going to implement changes based on supporter feedback, and in the meantime am also working on a video simulating epidemics. Thanks for your patience, and stay tuned! We'll also talk more later about how to address the ways this obviously simplified model differs from reality. First, we have to establish the basic building blocks to work with.
    Some people have asked about if the smaller graph around 10:40 should actually be much taller, since “the area under it should be 1”. If it was a distribution, this would absolutely be true, but those two graphs are simply functions, where s is a variable, not probability density functions for s. To see how that pdf comes about, that’s where Bayes’ rule comes in, to be covered in part 2.

    • @Antediluvian137
      @Antediluvian137 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Edit: I'm wrong. I was missing that you could also plot a z-axis with different data outcomes (478/500, 479/500, etc). The integral of that 3D plot should still a probability of 1, but the 2D slices don't need to.
      Isn't it because your plotting function in the video is discrete? In other words, is it rendered over a discrete set of values? Maybe there's a very sharp spike at a specific value, so plotting it continuously should still yield a total area under the curve of 1, shouldn't it? Because the total probability of all outcomes must still be 1, or what am I missing?

    • @dab-jacaylofficial762
      @dab-jacaylofficial762 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Will you proceed sir
      Your serious video how long
      When you stop all is my curiosity
      Please proof us trignomatery

    • @iveharzing
      @iveharzing 4 ปีที่แล้ว +28

      @@dab-jacaylofficial762 what

    • @Katherine_Zheng
      @Katherine_Zheng 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      @@Antediluvian137 while the value that we assign each s to is a probability, it is just that, it does not describe a distribution.
      For another example: let's say we have a n sided die with 100% probability to land on one. And n is greater or equal to one. And we do the same thing as in the video, we graf the value of the probability that die lands on one as n changes. We find that the graf is just a flat line at 1. And the area under the graf is infinite.

    • @artunsaday6391
      @artunsaday6391 4 ปีที่แล้ว +24

      @@Antediluvian137 But that is not the graph of all possible outcomes. It is just a function that tells us the probability of a certain outcome (48 out of 50 in this case) as a function of the actual succes rate s. This is why the whole curve decreases as the data increases. Since there are more possible outcomes in the actual pdf, that certain outcome has a lower chance. As an example think about the similar outcomes: 478/500, 479/500, 481/500... they all have similar probabilities to 480/500 so they are less likely than getting 48/50. At least this is what I understood hope it helps.

  • @teachmemaster2669
    @teachmemaster2669 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    You sir are a major MVP! I don't know what I would do without this video. So thankful for all the knowledge and the lucid explanations/visualisations! Keep up the good work!

  • @DennisZIyanChen
    @DennisZIyanChen 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    you are so incredible. There are a lot of cool statistics concepts and I can't wait to see more videos on this from you. Just so inspiring to see how well you demonstrate these concepts.

  • @PracticalEngineeringChannel
    @PracticalEngineeringChannel 4 ปีที่แล้ว +223

    Love thinking about binomial distributions. A lot of what I do at work is looking at flood magnitudes and their probability. A lot of the way the constructed environment looks (and costs) is based on societal risk tolerance and where we choose to draw those lines in the sand. Great video!

    • @noob78
      @noob78 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      How do you calculate the probability of a flood of magnitude of x?

    • @-guitarhero
      @-guitarhero 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@noob78 they're engineer scum. Probably using 'proof by python simulation'.

  • @boiimcfacto2364
    @boiimcfacto2364 4 ปีที่แล้ว +313

    Me who literally just finished Baye's Theorem, seeing this at midnight: *So this is the power of Ultra Instinct?*

    • @solarisone1082
      @solarisone1082 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Found the Dragon Ball fan. :-)

    • @SwainixFPV
      @SwainixFPV 4 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      This video just reminds me I'm already rusty on the bayesian stuff I studied at the start of the year lol

    • @tanta1519
      @tanta1519 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      *Requiem

    • @nameunknown007
      @nameunknown007 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      No, this is Google spying on you.

    • @deus_ex_machina_
      @deus_ex_machina_ 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@nameunknown007 But the video was published on the day of their comment. If it was released earlier and recommended today than it could be evidence of Google spying.

  • @tobiasopsahl6163
    @tobiasopsahl6163 3 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    Please continue this series :) I know you have a lot to do, but I am really looking forward to the rest of the probability series.

  • @levinunemaker9406
    @levinunemaker9406 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I don't know what insight this offers, but seeing you add the probability of having a good or bad experience as a superposition of states made me think of that small change as an infinitesimal, as in differentiation, of the probability measure. I was delighted to find you have a whole series leading to the beta. Great work! Thank you for all your help.

  • @festusmaximus4111
    @festusmaximus4111 4 ปีที่แล้ว +61

    I'm so sad that I've outgrown the point of these videos in teaching mathematics, I can't express how useful the essence of linear algebra and essence of calculus were in building my first intuitions about those topics, but now that I'm well on my way towards a physics masters there's less new maths here, less in total to learn. The reason I still watch them has therefore changed; now I watch not to learn the subject, but to learn how to teach the subject. In this regard, the ways of teaching presented in 3B1B's videos have been invaluable to me, as I have always loved to teach.
    So thank you, because while the total amount I can take from each new video is now diminished (through no reduction in the quality of the videos), I may now take different things from the videos, and instead of marveling at the beautifully precise animations and newfound mathematical understanding I can wonder at the phrasing of each complex topic, and how even the most complex ideas become simple when you speak.

    • @quadrannilator
      @quadrannilator 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      There are many here who may never teach, but watch for the precise reason you do. Its the approach, not exactly that we do understand the topic as adults with a little bit of brain and practice. Happy Teaching!

    • @unsweeteneddoll
      @unsweeteneddoll 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Are you a unicorn? Man, it feels like every math teacher I’ve had has only taught the subject bitterly and with resentment towards both the subject and their students. Of course it’s not true of all math teachers, but unlike language arts, it feels like math teachers who are passionate about teaching are rare. Good on you.

  • @abhishekthorat3631
    @abhishekthorat3631 4 ปีที่แล้ว +212

    Your Ted talk was awesome just loved it.

    • @yahav897
      @yahav897 4 ปีที่แล้ว +44

      He's done a ted talk? Dang, I should watch it.

    • @coffeedude
      @coffeedude 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Is this a meme? If not how can I find it?

    • @dakshitchopra04
      @dakshitchopra04 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @Walter White I was in middle of it when this notification appeared .

    • @soumyadeepghosh92
      @soumyadeepghosh92 4 ปีที่แล้ว +28

      @@coffeedude th-cam.com/video/s_L-fp8gDzY/w-d-xo.html

    • @soumyadeepghosh92
      @soumyadeepghosh92 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Thanks for the info . Cons of underestimating TedX , and not hitting the notification bell .

  • @undeadman7676
    @undeadman7676 4 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    I had this exact same question a few years back and couldn't figure out for the life of me how to quantify my instincts. This video has saved me ;--;

  • @gabrieldiazireland7157
    @gabrieldiazireland7157 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Thank you for all your videos and knowledge explained in such a good way. I am sure it helps the world to be a better place with all the all the engineers, mathematicians and physicists using them.

  • @Vertic03
    @Vertic03 4 ปีที่แล้ว +483

    A 3blue1brown has 1617 positive ratings out of 1621 reviews. What is the chance of the video giving you a positive experience?
    Easy, it's 100%

    • @NacToYT
      @NacToYT 4 ปีที่แล้ว +35

      But that's not dependent on the ratings.
      That's a simple fact.

    • @VidheyOza
      @VidheyOza 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      r/UnexpectedlyWholesome

    • @sebastianjost
      @sebastianjost 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      The others just forgot to leave a like and those who disliked just misclicked. ^^
      I totally agree with your comment.

    • @ShannonJacobs0
      @ShannonJacobs0 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      So you provoked me to give it a thumb's down (but the deeper reasons are in my earlier comment).

    • @acey457
      @acey457 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      i will thumbs down but tomorrow i will wash my hands of it

  • @rogerwang21
    @rogerwang21 4 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    I’ve been wondering about this topic for a long time now. Thanks for a video on it!

  • @pontust9773
    @pontust9773 4 ปีที่แล้ว +413

    Dude you gotta release the other parts soon, I got an exam in statistics coming up😂👌

    • @sajanator3
      @sajanator3 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      How did it go ?

    • @pontust9773
      @pontust9773 3 ปีที่แล้ว +32

      @@sajanator3 I BARELY passed but hey, I passed ;)

    • @sajanator3
      @sajanator3 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@pontust9773 Good job :)

    • @eccentricOrange
      @eccentricOrange 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Lol I'm in the same boat. Exam soon

    • @sajanator3
      @sajanator3 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@eccentricOrange I've got a prelim soon so I'm working my ass off. Lol

  • @DrBlo0dy
    @DrBlo0dy 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    If i can go back in time re-start college as a freshman, I would binge watch all of his videos. He makes math so much easier and interesting to understand.

  • @kazimraza6278
    @kazimraza6278 4 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    Brilliant. This is exactly what we encounter in the plant safety reliability as well. Probability of (equipment fault|safety function fail). Excited fpr the next episode.

  • @elvinchateauvert
    @elvinchateauvert 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Since all my classes have moved to online, this is one of the best supplemental "classes" I've ever had :)

  • @ow4744
    @ow4744 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Can I just say that as someone currently studying statistics this video proved incredibly interesting and useful - suddenly when we got to about 10:30 I realised we were essentially talking about the same maths that is behind confidence intervals. Very helpful to see it in a different context!

  • @weitt14
    @weitt14 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great work once again!
    I would love a whole series on an intuition for statistics just as for linear algebra and calculus. They really changed how i view my world

  • @stephenmcateer
    @stephenmcateer 3 ปีที่แล้ว +26

    I'm dying waiting for the sequel to this. Dying.

    • @akshatsharma2299
      @akshatsharma2299 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      There already is a sequel

    • @briholt100
      @briholt100 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@akshatsharma2299 where is video 3? I've seen #2.

  • @zetsui0411
    @zetsui0411 2 ปีที่แล้ว +33

    4:56 probability of probabilities
    5:45 in context, proability of data given an assumed succes rt
    8:35 binominal
    9:10 animation

  • @Israelpwn
    @Israelpwn 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Oh, what a blessing you and your timing are, 3B1B!
    My work mainly involves improving a classifier that my company made, usually approaching it from the data view of things.
    However, I've recently started a book on Bayesian statistics and was curious to approach the problem as a Bayesian probability instead of raw data.
    Needless to say, I'm super psyched for this series!

  • @mattoita
    @mattoita 4 ปีที่แล้ว +128

    The beauty of this channel is that, even though I might be well versed with all of its content concept-wise, I still enjoy very much watching these videos. I'm just delighted to see how you choose to present concepts, the graphical effort to show them clearly, in coordination with speech. Sometimes in incredibly revelaing ways. This is what teaching is truly about, and it is kinda sad how often teachers themselves mistake their job as "giving concepts to students" (...and testing them) (or something along those lines). Your work is very inspirational, instructive, enjoyable. I'm so happy that I know you - and big props to each one collaborating to make these videos. I'm confident in saying that you're like friends for many of us, even though we don't know you in person!

    • @nitishkumarthakur1920
      @nitishkumarthakur1920 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      and soothing voice of presenter

    • @MathPhysicsEngineering
      @MathPhysicsEngineering ปีที่แล้ว

      For those who are interested in detailed analysis and proof of the binomial expansion formula, I would recommend looking up on my channel the video called:" The Binomial Expansion Formula Derivation and Proof"

    • @unknowninfinium4353
      @unknowninfinium4353 ปีที่แล้ว

      I am a noob. But lately my interest in statistics is growing. I am also not that smart and ny IQ is below average.
      Could you suggest me some books or so about statistics which I can start reading to understand these concepts?

    • @skydivenext
      @skydivenext ปีที่แล้ว

      giving concepts to students is a good way to study you dont need these videos to understand them, the problem is that teachers regurgitate concepts with no much explanation reading powerpoint slides when they dont even rember much about the concept either

  • @sergniko
    @sergniko 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Очень интересно и понятно. Теория вероятности после таких видео становится простой и очевидной. Спасибо за хорошее видео. :-)

  • @marco_gallone
    @marco_gallone 3 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Hi Grant! I loved this but I’ve been on a 9 month cliffhanger! Please release part 2 and 3!

  • @queenquit
    @queenquit 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you for this video! I'm a first year master's student in biostatistics with no math/stat background. After first two weeks of study I feel completely lost, but luckily your amazing videos come into help! They saved me!. I really love them and hope you could have more video on statistical inference. A lot of people would love them since many are interested in stats and machine learning and are looking for jobs in data science. Lots of thanks again!

  • @autishd
    @autishd 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    This is a fantastic video. Anxiously awaiting parts 2 and 3.

  • @notsoclearsky
    @notsoclearsky 4 ปีที่แล้ว +121

    You're making this so easy while in the book it seems like a nightmare. The book makes me lose interest while this video reminds me why I always wanted to take and eventually took maths and science in the first place.

    • @Thmyris
      @Thmyris 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      The good teacher syndrome. Maybe try reading another book on the subject? After all, books are inanimate teachers.

    • @pranavlimaye
      @pranavlimaye 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      I absolutely agree. I too had to ditch the textbook and teach MYSELF these concepts. Sure it was fun, but probably the most exhausting thing I've done.
      Ohh how I wish Grant had uploaded this one before my exams came up

    • @alveolate
      @alveolate 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      omg if only i had this video when i first had to do binomial distribution for A level Maths C... the curse of Gen X'ers being born too early to enjoy youtube explanation videos before key exams.

    • @sankarsanbhattacheryya7498
      @sankarsanbhattacheryya7498 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      I'd suggest start doing some solved examples to get the hang of it. Read each line, try to guess what you should do for that line and then verify whether your approach was true from book. My introduction to statistics class was also a bit hairy but i found doing the solved examples really helpful

    • @pranavlimaye
      @pranavlimaye 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@sankarsanbhattacheryya7498 are you Indian? Which university/institute did you join for a statistics class?

  • @stxllr4687
    @stxllr4687 3 ปีที่แล้ว +28

    Can’t believe watching a Minecraft TH-camr led me to this point. I can barely understand anything but it’s kinda interesting now

    • @D00000T
      @D00000T 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      well if you’re still in school and haven’t taken a stats class yet, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll have to slog through this at some point

    • @xericicity
      @xericicity 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@D00000TAnd then immediately forget everything the second you leave the exam hall and rediscover it all again, after 10+ years of working as an engineer, because of some weirdo projects that needs it.

  • @WhitefoxSpace
    @WhitefoxSpace 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    3blue1brown is without a doubt one of the best ways you can start your day. It gets your mind working. One of the rare creators I can watch and not feel like I'm procrastinating.

  • @walkedoutt7225
    @walkedoutt7225 4 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Thank you so much 3blue1brown you’ve inspired me to double major in math and economics. You’re videos are absurdly intuitive. So much so that even layman can understand. This is true intelligence. Keep up this great work buddy.

  • @peterbrough2461
    @peterbrough2461 4 ปีที่แล้ว +154

    You forgot to subtract five ✔'s for reviews by the seller and his friends, and two ❌'s from the seller's competition - right off the top.😮

    • @letao12
      @letao12 4 ปีที่แล้ว +28

      Yeah, the underlying assumptions are really important. A completely random model with independent ratings is good for teaching math, but doesn't really match reality.

    • @shrikedecil
      @shrikedecil 4 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      Not to mention Amazon shadowbanning, deleting, and otherwise monkeying with the numbers.
      Garbage in, Garbage out. Now, for advanced statistics, we'll play with poll results....

    • @SumNutOnU2b
      @SumNutOnU2b 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You beat me to it. I was about to comment a question asking if they plan to cover this sort of thing

    • @andrewdunbar828
      @andrewdunbar828 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      What's the probability that a seller has only five friends and two competitors?

    • @doombybbr
      @doombybbr 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      I would have instead have increased the number of artificially generated data, to 10 artificial numbers instead of just 2. Generally put the number at which you would stop being suspicious of your data sample as the amount you inject.
      Doing this actually causes option 3 to become preferable. Though it also means 1 review sellers with negative get screwed over, so your method is probably better.

  • @yordan3146
    @yordan3146 3 ปีที่แล้ว +142

    Hi 3blue1brown, we are still waiting for the two other videos announced in here, "Bayesian updating. Probability density function" and "Beta distribution". Are you thinking of publishing them soon? Thanks in advance for your help to understand probability and have an intuition about it. It is really something. Great job!!

    • @wealthy_concept1313
      @wealthy_concept1313 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Yo please which course is this at college?

    • @fatfr0g570
      @fatfr0g570 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@wealthy_concept1313 Don’t take my word as advice, but I’d assume that this (binomial distribution) would be found in introductory statistics. As to the others, I am unsure as I haven’t heard of them. If you had asked this at the end of April or very beginning of May, I could have asked my Calc 2 professor since he also teaches statistics.

    • @wealthy_concept1313
      @wealthy_concept1313 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@fatfr0g570 ok

    • @andresperezrobinson2247
      @andresperezrobinson2247 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      Still waiting

    • @oscarespinosa1894
      @oscarespinosa1894 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Still waiting

  • @Silver-ue7ev
    @Silver-ue7ev 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I love the way you use animated graphs, it really helps the video be more understandable

  • @threehotdogs
    @threehotdogs 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    your videos are just really visually appealing, i don't personally find math very engaging usually but your video production and presentation are really top notch

  • @davideizzo2683
    @davideizzo2683 3 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I learned that damn binomial distribution like 4 times in my life now, hope I'm not gonna forget it this time

  • @NOVAsteamed
    @NOVAsteamed 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    This channel is so amazing like seriously. You made me decide to choose a math major with computer science.

  • @davidm.johnston8994
    @davidm.johnston8994 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great video Grant, as per usual on your channel! Thanks for all the work that you put into these. I think you're truly at the cutting edge of explaining math with these videos. Take care ;-)

  • @tigerbelly2152
    @tigerbelly2152 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Hi Sir, I love your series. Very concise and clear explanation delivered masterfully with visuals. Thank you! And please do more on prob and stats theories!!!

  • @yuxin7440
    @yuxin7440 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I think I will deal with this problem like this:
    We assume each seller as a Bernoulli random variable with probability p of getting a good review, and each review is *independent* (which is not the case in reality). Given a sequence of n reviews X_1, ..., X_n, we can define the *likelihood* of this sequence given p as L(X_1, X_2, ..., X_n | p) = \prod_{i=1}^n p(X_i | p). The specific value of p that maximizes function L, denoted as p^ (p-hat), is the MLE (aka. Maximum Likelihood Estimator) of p. We can compute MLE using calculus techniques (derivative of L = 0 and second derivative of L < 0).
    Of course, MLE is not always the best estimator, we can determine whether an estimator is *biased* by testing whether E[estimator] = actual parameter. It is not biased if they are equal, and vice versa.
    To get a more practical view of the estimation, we can construct the *confidence interval* of the estimation. By central limit theorem, the distribution of the sum of n independent identically distributed random variables is normal as n approaches infinity. If the estimator can be represented as some constant times the sum of the X_1 to X_n, we can construct the x% confidence interval (we usually use x=90, 95, and 99 in reality) by P(actual is within the interval: [E[estimator] - z*stddev(estimator), E[estimator] + z*stddev(estimator)]) = 2\Phi(z) - 1 > x%. Using the standard normal table, we can compute z, and get the interval.

  • @PsychoSavager289
    @PsychoSavager289 4 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    "Ships from Plato's cave"
    I see what you did there.

  • @klumpeet
    @klumpeet 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you for this excellent start to this series. Explaining the concept of a likelihood function this clearly, without all the awful jargon, is admirable. The difference between data|s and s|data is too often misunderstood in my scientific community right now. Thank you.

  • @rishiagarwal926
    @rishiagarwal926 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Probability distribution was a thing that I was taught recently in High school, but I never got what each term ment or why Binomial theorem was involved in it, and now I even understand it's graphs!
    Thanks so much!!

  • @johnchessant3012
    @johnchessant3012 4 ปีที่แล้ว +45

    "All Prices Pi Publishing" is selling the $75 book for $314.15. Go figure.

  • @icicleditor
    @icicleditor 4 ปีที่แล้ว +453

    This is all assuming that the buyers aren’t paid to give positive reviews.
    *COUGH*
    RAID SHADOW LEGENDS
    *COUGH*

    • @Raveyboi
      @Raveyboi 4 ปีที่แล้ว +59

      Bro, do you have corona

    • @icicleditor
      @icicleditor 4 ปีที่แล้ว +64

      nah, it's just a cough for comedic effect
      (sniffle)

    • @khytron06
      @khytron06 4 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      @@Raveyboi When i read back the comment after reading your comment i was so dead, your comment deserves more likes.

    • @Manly-Tears
      @Manly-Tears 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      RAIDDDDDDDDDDDDD SHADOOOW REGENDS: Only gained attention because of the Internet Historian Vids, and initial paid reviews.

    • @kemchobhenchod
      @kemchobhenchod 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Using review filters (ie. reviewmeta and fakespot) and reading their trusted positive/negative reviews first to avoid confirmation bias/cognitive dissonance are also very effective.

  • @unoriginalusernameno999
    @unoriginalusernameno999 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Nice video and FANTASTIC TED talk by the way! Congratulations! Keep up the great work!

  • @asdfvp5795
    @asdfvp5795 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Mr. BlueBrown, you have the magical gift of making incredibly difficult sounding mathematical concepts explain in a way, so I can understand them in less than 10 min. Moreover, I find it super logical when you do so and I can reproduce this by heart. No math, economics or accounting teacher has been able to do this in my 5 years of uni.

  • @bencrossley647
    @bencrossley647 4 ปีที่แล้ว +123

    I came up with a “solution” to this about 3 weeks ago. Makes me happy to see a formal way to do it :p

    • @dakshitchopra04
      @dakshitchopra04 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      more reviews means more genunity of rating .
      That's why I prefer more reviews , when two sellers are selling same stuff .

    • @bencrossley647
      @bencrossley647 4 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      My “solution” was: average + 0.1log_2(votes/32) with a cap on this term at votes = 128. The thinking being that if enough people have voted for something that in itself contains value (limited to +0.2)

    • @Nothen
      @Nothen 4 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      @@dakshitchopra04 Only issue is that some sites like ebay & amazon have problems with vendors inflating their review numbers artificially. How much it affects the number of reviews, I have no idea.

    • @DanielGonzalezL
      @DanielGonzalezL 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      The real solution is seeing which seller is closer to you and can save you more time :P

    • @bencrossley647
      @bencrossley647 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Daniel Gonzalez You mean the Traveling Amazon Salesmen problem.

  • @anch95
    @anch95 4 ปีที่แล้ว +80

    5:20
    "Nikola" 😂😂
    I see what you did there.

    • @snuffeldjuret
      @snuffeldjuret 4 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      it actually exist :) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Motor_Company

    • @taratron
      @taratron 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      what's the joke?

    • @nao10270
      @nao10270 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      @@taratron car factory named "Nikola" is referring to Tesla the actual car compagny, which in turn is named after The physicist who discovered AC : Nikola Tesla

    • @Eurotool
      @Eurotool 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      3B1B knew NKLA was a fraudulent car company so he used it as a fictive example

    • @faresalouf
      @faresalouf 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@Eurotool finally someone who understood a thing or two here

  • @muzamilhussain7850
    @muzamilhussain7850 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    In love with this Channel, Hats off! you are not just making the videos but serving the society in a better way

  • @samoldfield9997
    @samoldfield9997 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I have never enjoyed a probability course this much. these visualizations are really amazing.

  • @shkotariq6138
    @shkotariq6138 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    clicked faster than a someone with corona deciding to have a vacation all of a sudden

  • @bradysmith6339
    @bradysmith6339 4 ปีที่แล้ว +166

    0:12 Ah yes, I would like it delivered February 31st

  • @anasshaikhany9733
    @anasshaikhany9733 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Please continue this series it's been 4 months from now, I am dying for some lovely probability math, Love from Syria

  • @mohaghaderi6077
    @mohaghaderi6077 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thanks for such elegant explanation of a deep and extremely important topic in empirical modeling. Great video!

  • @nickcampbell3812
    @nickcampbell3812 4 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I was looking for part 2 not noticing this came out an hour ago. I'm used to watching older material and just moving on to the next. I will wait.

    • @FlockOfHawks
      @FlockOfHawks 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      big grin : same here 👍

  • @tomf3150
    @tomf3150 4 ปีที่แล้ว +177

    Long story short : Read the negative comments.

    • @kiattim2100
      @kiattim2100 4 ปีที่แล้ว +40

      I used to do that with books and ended up not buying anything.

    • @chrisjfox8715
      @chrisjfox8715 4 ปีที่แล้ว +34

      Only thing, there’s almost always a collection of asshats in the comments claiming some product/business is the worst thing ever and that you shouldn’t buy it. The specific criticism is what to pay attention to and whether that specific thing is something that matters to you. Because chances, there’s always a few people that happen to have a negative experience and assume that literally everyone else will experience the same.

    • @whirlwind872
      @whirlwind872 4 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      @@kiattim2100 Agreed, reading the negative reviews of movies/games/books will poison your mind and convince you that it's bad before you even give it a fair chance. That's the problem with the internet, you are so often told how to think rather than coming to a conclusion entirely on your own

    • @mazengwe28
      @mazengwe28 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      What I do is filter out the ratings. If it's a 10 point/star rating, just go by the rating bewtwen 8-3. It tends to give the most honest results because it has room for error. 9's and 10's say that everything is perfect (which is hardly the case) and 2,1, or 0 tend to be too negative and just bad mouth it without giving any objectivity.

    • @BenjaminCronce
      @BenjaminCronce 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      10% of people complaining that it breaks after 6 months.... no thanks.

  • @TheVixenfan
    @TheVixenfan 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    I hope the next one comes out soon! love your videos for supplemental learning material!

  • @bryanroland8649
    @bryanroland8649 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Lucid and enlightening as always, even for innumerate viewers like me. This video helps you to get a grip on the counter-intuitive nature of probabilities.

  • @crh231
    @crh231 4 ปีที่แล้ว +42

    "Try using a Non-Gregorian calendar" made me chuckle

    • @NoriMori1992
      @NoriMori1992 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      For February *31* 😂

  • @bigwheel9468
    @bigwheel9468 3 ปีที่แล้ว +416

    Dreams ender pearls be like

    • @princeo242
      @princeo242 3 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Lmao 5Heads coming in

    • @D00000T
      @D00000T 3 ปีที่แล้ว +26

      these children should just watch videos like this, learn stats themselves, and then decide who’s right themselves. They’re most likely going to have to slog through a stats class eventually so why not start the pain early when it won’t effect your life greatly if you fail?

    • @leoofficial527
      @leoofficial527 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Lol

    • @rmanami
      @rmanami 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      what

  • @TheDroidMate
    @TheDroidMate 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Once again, you nailed it. Not that anyone had other expectations. Thanks mate

  • @georgeofhamilton
    @georgeofhamilton 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is an amazing video with really practical applications.

  • @billywongting
    @billywongting 4 ปีที่แล้ว +79

    An actuary who is tired of calculating give you another solution:
    - Surely the one with 200 reviews is better. They get more customers even offering the same price!

    • @LddStyx
      @LddStyx 4 ปีที่แล้ว +31

      Which is more likely that all the customers are rational actors and have done the math OR that they used your heuristic trusting that the more popular one is better? :p

    • @absqrb
      @absqrb 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@LddStyx they would all start w/ 0 of 0 though

    • @MegaDardery
      @MegaDardery 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      @@LddStyx snowball effect

    • @samsibbens8164
      @samsibbens8164 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      They're not necessarely better but if the percentage rating is one that if were 100% accurate would be worth the risk to you, then the one with more reviews is better because at least you're much closer to the actual risk you're taking when buying from them.

    • @shadsluiter
      @shadsluiter 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Of course. When choosing a restaurant, would you dare enter a place that is nearly empty while the surrounding places are full?

  • @juliocardenas4485
    @juliocardenas4485 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Was the third video in the series ever posted?
    I’m dying to watch it

  • @Wonders_of_Reality
    @Wonders_of_Reality 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I love this topic! Grant, many thanks for finally showing us the binomial distribution. Oh, so many memories! I even wrote a flash-script that was calculating it.

  • @maibrl5251
    @maibrl5251 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    I just want to thank you for the series, that’s exactly what I need to understand for my upcoming maths finals, at least part 1 and two afaik

  • @Jessie_Helms
    @Jessie_Helms 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Personally in this type of situation I look at the stars.
    If there’s a LOT of 1 and 2 stars with almost no 3 or 4 stars, I take that as a bad sign.
    If there’s a lot of 3 or 4 stars that’s better.
    If it’s mostly 4 or 5 stars with a handful of lower ones that’s really good.

    • @ceruchi2084
      @ceruchi2084 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      I trust 4-star reviews more than 5-star, because the 5-star ones are often friends or paid accomplices.

  • @dasdaleberger5683
    @dasdaleberger5683 4 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    "Ah, fortune smiles. Another day of wine and roses, or in your case, beer and pizza!"

  • @ditrizna
    @ditrizna 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Please, please, please continue these series!

  • @satyamsingh-zo8ex
    @satyamsingh-zo8ex 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    This is absolutely amazing! Keep up the good work!!

  • @johnchessant3012
    @johnchessant3012 4 ปีที่แล้ว +25

    3:08 the facial expressions on the buyer pi haha

  • @sword013
    @sword013 4 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    Please make a whole probability and combinatorics intuitional playlist in deep !!!!!

  • @an1ketsharma
    @an1ketsharma 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Was Studying (still studying) probability when this poped up in recommendation.
    Worth the watch ngl.

  • @simplemathematics_25
    @simplemathematics_25 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Best Math English Channel. I wish more teachers had your abilities to teach.

  • @andreykey2623
    @andreykey2623 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    Where is the beta distribution video🙈?

  • @jandew314
    @jandew314 3 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    1:52 When handling a 5-star rating system, like how Amazon gives you the distribution of those ratings, can you do a similar thing of just adding one of each possible rating (one 1 star, one 2 star, ... one 5 star) and then compute the expectation value of the resulting distribution?

  • @waynemv
    @waynemv 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thank you for covering topics in statistics. Statistics is one of the most important branches of mathematics for the general population to better understand, far more important than linear algebra or calculus, for the typical person.

  • @dancinindadark
    @dancinindadark 4 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Learning cumulative binomial distributions just to prove how absurdly lucky my friend was and unlucky my other friend was with drop rates in a game has been very fun and educational thanks to your short series, thank you

  • @binarywizard69420
    @binarywizard69420 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Time to reck dream with phd of binomial distribution 😎

  • @tiny_toilet
    @tiny_toilet 4 ปีที่แล้ว +8670

    I'm tempted to give a dislike and ask my partner to give a like for a more accurate rating of this video.

    • @Ruhrpottpatriot
      @Ruhrpottpatriot 4 ปีที่แล้ว +449

      I'm tempted to do that about your comment. ;)

    • @appleoftheground
      @appleoftheground 4 ปีที่แล้ว +171

      big brain

    • @rabbitclimbmountain
      @rabbitclimbmountain 4 ปีที่แล้ว +53

      Best comment of the day.

    • @orange1304
      @orange1304 4 ปีที่แล้ว +53

      @@Ruhrpottpatriot It wouldn't work though, since we don't see the dislikes, sadly...

    • @tiny_toilet
      @tiny_toilet 4 ปีที่แล้ว +88

      @Hugo Vendetta Wasn't me. I could NEVER actually bring myself to give
      3Blue1Brown a dislike!

  • @Lascarnn
    @Lascarnn 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's really satisfying to learn such simple answer to such complex problem

  • @on_certainty
    @on_certainty 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    so cool
    this program you've made is so beautiful

  • @adityachk2002
    @adityachk2002 4 ปีที่แล้ว +37

    The last time I was so early I was still learning essence of calc

  • @rotemshai3496
    @rotemshai3496 3 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    part 2 please please please!!!

  • @wavvy94
    @wavvy94 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This really helped me get a better intuition for how the binomial distribution works, I'd be so lost without this channel lmao

  • @donielf1074
    @donielf1074 4 ปีที่แล้ว

    Yes! You finally have your probability series!