Weekly markets checklist. Week 164. 5th July 2024

It was a busy week in politics with the UK election, Joe Biden desperately clinging on to the Democratic Presidential candidacy and 1st round elections for the National Assembly in France. The cover US ISM services and manufacturing PMI’s, JOLTs job openings for May, EU inflation for June, and the China Caixin PMI’s. We have special sections on the social limits to growth, AI model development costs, the missing productivity gains from AI, and Donald Trump’s plan to replace income tax with import tariffs. Plus we have all the usual sections, macro data and markets data
In my portfolio section I discuss the failure this week of my 2nd largest angel investment after 7 years of involvement. I am angry at management's communication failures and contempt for shareholders.
I was unable to complete the segment on Silver for this week but will do it next week.
Chapters
00:00:53 This week’s news
00:07:13 This week’s economic data
00:11:16 EU economic data
00:13:12 US economic data
00:29:26 China economic data
00:30:31 Errors and corrections
00:36:08 The social limits to growth
00:46:33 The cost of developing AI models
00:49:43 The missing productivity boost from AI
00:54:55 Can Donald Trump replace income tax with import tariffs?
00:58:34 Inflation watch
01:05:08 Recession watch
01:06:13 Good news
01:08:31 Equity market checklist
01:15:34 Commodity summary
01:19:18 Industrial metals checklist
01:22:06 Precious metals
01:23:30 Bond yield and interest rates checklist
01:26:58 Concluding comments
01:27:57 Richard’s portfolio update
01:28:42 Keith’s portfolio update
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[@rsforthewin]

Would be good to see a video on gms as they seem to have turned things around.

[@sogoesit8008]

There were a couple of SCOTUS decisions this week that bear heavily on economic conditions:
1. EPA "Good Neighbour" Rule blocked
2. The Chevron doctrine has been struck down; rescinding the power of regulators to allow lower courts to uphold regulators' interpretations of statute as long as it was reasonable.
The second has significant consequences economically.
"The best model for an economy is the economy". This is the truth. Applies to all unique structures physical and organisational.

[@marks9937-s3d]

46:30 silver jumped 3% today anticipating a slot in the weekly! We shall see where it is next week, $32+?