Weekly markets checklist. Week 163. 28th June 2024
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ต.ค. 2024
- There was not much macro data this week giving time for Richard and I to discuss Migration, the state of the UK economy, the US housing market (again), the effect of government bond issuance on the money supply, and, following on from last week, Simon’s investment approach. Plus we have all the usual sections.
Chapters
00:00:35 This week’s news
00:04:47 This week’s economic data
00:10:11 UK economic data
00:17:34 EU economic data
00:20:18 US economic data
00:30:28 China economic data
00:31:49 One Chart
00:32:43 Migration
00:49:30 The UK economy
00:57:04 The US housing market
01:05:53 How government bond issuance affects the money supply
01:08:29 Simon’s investment strategy
01:18:24 Recession watch
01:21:18 Soft landing watch
01:23:28 Good news
01:24:18 Equity market checklist
01:30:07 Commodity summary
01:32:22 Industrial metals checklist
01:33:46 Precious metals
01:34:33 Bond yield and interest rates checklist
01:37:11 Concluding comments
01:38:23 Richard’s portfolio update
01:39:06 Keith’s portfolio update
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Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian C Nelson.
Finding yourself a good broker is as same as finding a good wife, which you go less stress, you get just enough with so much little effort at things
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
SILG (Global X Silver Miners ) is a silver miner ETF. No particular recommendation.
I'm one of those in the control immigration camp (but understand its necessity especially in certain high skilled areas too) but I come from a different angle re: longer term solutions compared to the stauncher Anti immigration stance.
Few areas to consider (and I'm focusing primarily on the economic aspect)
- There are plenty of folks living in the UK who are underemployed or simply living off benefits. Many of these folks could be at least used for filling the gaps in those low skilled jobs instead of bringing in folks from abroad. Part of the problem and what I've heard from some employers "locals are lazy" REFORM unfortunately wouldn't have the cajones to state this currently at the risk of alienating their own voter base.
We also have a tremendous amount of non value addings jobs in this country in both the private and public sectors. In the public sector we have higher emphasis on (DEI, Virtue signalling, unecessary meetings/conferences, bureaucracy processes, ethics etc..) the wastage is clear and insiders would also tell you this. Some/most of these areas can be cut and folks involved put to better use in the wider economy then having them funded by our taxes at current levels. These folks can eventually find their way to areas where there are real gaps (healthcare, hands on blue collar workers, retail, fruit picking etc....). All the net taxes/costs we save, theoretically we could even use it to top up their salaries if deemed too low in those more value adding jobs.
-The government also wastes money paying private sector organisations on a lot of silly stuff in some cases all these can be cut = jobs also cut in the private sector and folks can once again reallocate themselves to providing more value elsewhere in the economy.
- All the low skilled immigrants who arrive, afaik they don't just all leave, some do but a large proportion stay especially if UK provides just enough government support to incentivise staying. So let's just assume these people are in relatively low skilled jobs and plan to stay ,cultural fit is only one issue
Going off on a mini ramble...... remember they perpetuate the creation of silos where these days you can in some areas actually get away not needing to speak/learn english properly - ultimately we are all tribal so I can't blame them but please visit places like , Burnt oak (little romania) Southall (Little India), tower hamlets (little bangladesh) if in London, or if more adventurous luton, rochdale, blackburn and infuse yourself properly in them spend few days in each and let it sink in and imagine the UK 30-50years from now considering births/deaths if we didn't have any control etc. The more relaxed/tolerant we become with our left leaning inclusive values, we risk splitting the country up in many ways because actually I don't think the average white englishman is that interested in properly learning about all these cultures, and many of the lower skilled immigrants aren't that obsessed with learning/adopting yours (unless they are effectively forced to for survival/earn a wage).
Now back on track Economically many of these peeps also have at least 1-2 kids who also need to use NHS, Schooling system, infrastructure etc... these are all substantial costs to the economy unless those kids do end up as investments for the country via upskilling (an 18-25year gamble arguably....).
Ultimately you can't really have an increasing number of folks basically paying relatively little/no tax if they ALL need to be provided for via public sector services.
I've not read the book but based on summary it almost seems as if the book was written to make a case for immigration, as oppose to looking at everything from an objective lens. I've considered the points mentioned within my own immigration framework. Maybe we need to see a book with facts taking the other side to balance it all out.
Thanks for your long response to our section on immigration. I agree that immigration needs to be controlled, but the book convinced me that it is not as big a problem as the media suggests, and in particularly we need to maintain a system that allows the circular movement of low paid workers to do seasonal jobs. The reality is that British workers will not do these jobs, and the wages on offer do not allow people to live above the poverty line in this country. Unless we wish to return to higher levels of poverty and inequality, we need to accept that those jobs will always be filled by immigrants.
Re the cultural impact of immigration: I agree that the creation of defined immigrant communities is bad for the working class populations who are displaced, or have to accommodate them. But, one of the key points of the book was that we forget how big past immigration levels were, and how big the intolerance of previous immigrant populations was. London has previously seen high levels of immigration of, for instance, Caribbeans, Jews and Catholics (Irish), who were seen as a huge cultural threat and subject to a great deal of hostility. Now they have become an accepted part of society, and our attention has turned to other groups who will in turn slowly become assimilated.
I would urge you to read the book and make up your own mind. The book is not pro-immigration (i.e. allowing people to permanently stay), but it makes the case that migration is a necessary part of economic growth; that the current levels of immigration are not at record highs; and that its cultural impacts are not more disruptive than they have been historically.
Re DEI: I agree with you.
@@portfoliomatters2473 Thanks for your response. I will read the book, as I've not looked into the temporary migration aspects much. For the big picture I just go by census figures to decipher trends, and then visit places around the UK to improve understanding.
For what it's worth I'm from a South Asian immigrant background. I know of many who faced hostility in the 70s/80s but became productive members of society yet still remain culturally different, albeit not a nuisance re:crime etc. I guess there are plenty of nuances/layers to this. Differences are ok as long as it doesn't get to the point of clashing. I guess both sides of the immigration discussion can do with more openess/understanding.
@@TheUnknownDepths As you will no doubt have noticed from the Podcast I am half Chinese and grew up here in the 1970's and 80's, where every trip into town involved some fear of encountering the local skinheads. I think that we forget how intolerant society was back then.
I've been to Southall for work at moons food factory a few times... Friendly place but don't understand the caste system. I once let a woman Infront of me at a water dispenser & the whole crowd behind her went into a water gathering frenzy, making me wait. I think reducing the school leaving age to 14 would solve a lot of low skill employment issues & see 'higher education' as a fallacy which makes nurses not want to change wee bags & people with university debt & no well paid job wanting to migrate. Not that there is a mechanism to vote for my views though.
Great summary of my strategy. Excellent. I would add that I do test valuations through PEG look forwards because the market, being euphoric, will overpay. It is the extent to which the overpayment is paid that is the issue. This is a matter of judgement.
Richard's point is crucial. Everyone has to feel comfortable, and buy in, to their own strategy and tactics. Failure is part and parcel of investing. Using someone else's strategy, or stock picks, should never be used as a crutch to lean on! Failure leads to learning and the more important if it is one's own failure.