Please do i would love to read the deep dive on something like this cause another comment suggested that its a bug that only JUST now came up. Additionally it could be Bungie just lying. Both would be fascinating tbh.
Tbf some people do have 8 hour a day jobs and getting home and spending hours a day grinding to not get the roll you want makes sense that people would start getting pissed and or suss.
@@tommiles4508I work full-time and go to school for electrical engineering at the same time. I only play about 1 hour a day and have no problem with grinding. If you don’t like the grind, you don’t like Destiny. As simple and blunt as that.
@@tommiles4508I hate when mfs use this excuse. If you actually like the game you wouldn’t care if you got the roll or not, challenge yourself in the game instead of chasing god rolls with the little time you apparently say you have with the game.
The most likely reason this happened was because one programmer in charge of random rolls had logic that looked to be working when testing and for a long time was never noticed. There's evidence this has been in the game for a long time, it was just found now, so Bungie thinks there's no weighting but upon review by Skarrow there was.
I wouldn't be surprised if this bug has existed ever since random rolled weapons got added back into the game with Forsaken, it was a pretty late choice to bring random rolls back based on the information we have from the original community summit in 2018. Entirely possible this RNG fault slipped through the cracks as they were reworking D2's weapon setup to have random perk rolls again, and we are only just discovering this now because it took awhile for perk pools to inflate to the size they are now, and this was just the first time it happened with a desirable combo.
@@toxicear5274 Idk think even if it is an accident (which I do think it is), this is still a MASSIVE screw-up. Earning loot is quite literally the fundamental core of this game, and having a bug exist for potentially YEARS that breaks the entire loot grind and makes thousands, potentially millions of hours pointless…yeah that’s very bad. This kind of thing should not have happened.
It's almost certainly caused by correlated seeding of random rolls. The perks likely being rolled one after the other and system clock or some other random seeding data not having enough time between the rolls to fully decouple the random number seeding. In the (very) old days you would see games throw up the same random result multiple times in the same minute because the minute value of system clock was part of the seeding for the random number generator. Modern RNG systems are much more sophisticated than that now but potentially still prone to correlated seeding.
I think it's really interesting how the community digging into the API is helping Bungie to solve the issue, I'm looking forward to a potential dev insight as well
The stereo in my car plays A Perfect Circle a quarter of the time when it's on shuffle. High quality random number distribution is tough to get from computers. Good show from everyone on chasing this down, and on Bungie for making such deep staticial analysis possible with a public API.
This is a pretty easy mistake to make, implementation-wise. It's trivial to design a system that outputs seemingly random results while treating the actual pseudorandom number generator as a truly random black box, which it almost certainly is not. This problem comes up a lot in cryptography, and is often known as the random oracle assumption
Yeah anyone thinking this is malicious 1) doesn’t understand the spaghetti code of destiny (and the skeleton crew they have 2) are looking to make bungie a villain but they do that outside of stuff like this
It's something you'd only be able to catch by checking on the massive amount of data generated by the live game servers. But it is kinda baffling that a core part of the game (how the loot is generated) had zero eyes on the live statistics or automated analysis that would have noticed this behaviour without the community doing it.
This didnt just happen now its been there for along time. They just dont have the data since everyone throw away the shit rolls of the weapons so it fks the results in the API.
@@inventor4279 It’s so sad to see man. I’ll grant that this isn’t the most shining example of the level of controversy the game has been mired in, but still, holy hell. It’s especially depressing because Destiny 1 quite literally saved my life. For reasons I won’t get into, the game, and the franchise as a whole, came into my life at a time when I really needed it. To see it ran as far into the ground as it has been in recent times has been quite sad.
@@ebgbees you deserve better, just because it helped you at a tough time, doesn't mean it deserves to threat you bad now, make the plunge, I quit almost two years ago and I've never looked back ❤️
9:06 Emphasis on this! I’ve seen so many people making conspiracy theories and accusing Bungie of intentionally weighting the drops in this way to make players play for longer
Bungie themselves said in a tweet there is no intentional weighting, but who knows, I wouldn't be too surprised if they're doing this to make us play longer 😭
Bungie has a bad record with this. previously they denied XP throttling and were proven to be lying based on data, and now bungie has said there’s no RNG weighting yet the community has proven there is based on the data. There’s also the fact that it leads to more player engagement, bungie directly benefits from this RNG glitch existing
@@fort809And more recently they've also done the following to inflate player engagement metrics: - The old transmog system being too convoluted - Ada-1 selling mods on a rotating basis for way, way too long (they still do this with shaders) - The old crafting system - The initial launch of exotic class items - Intentionally adding garbage perks to fill out the perk pool - Outright removing crafting from this Episode's seasonal weapons - And then the usual "hey you're only allowed to have one lottery ticket per character per week without any way of grinding your way into getting more sorry bud" bullshit And now THIS happens. Intentional or not, at this point this is such a Bungie feature they'd sneakily add in several months down the line.
I just remember my grind for Servant Leader back in Witch queen. I wanted Rapid Hit/Kill Clip, and it took me about 650 games, and 12 resets just to get those two perks together. I would get RH and something else, or something else and KC, even with the potential to get 3 perks in each slot, it took far too long to get those two together.
I was looking for the same roll! When they first updated it with an origin trait, I got to four resets before focusing it. Used all of my engrams and got nothing. Got a random drop from a match while going for more engrams. Couple of seasons later they added Field-tested to it and I did it all again. I got one with RH/KC. Between two seasons, waiting until after four resets to focus any engrams and I managed to get one copy with RH/KC out of ~100 engrams. The rng in the game is awful and everyone who is against crafting can go to hell.
Till this day I haven't even gotten Heal Clip/Incandescent roll on Abberant Action and even if it's craftable, I quickly noticed somethings wrong already with the perks weighing. Turns out I was right.
This reminds me of the Spotify randomizer situation. When users set a playlist to “random” it would literally pick at random any song to play. Sometimes, this meant that it would either replay a song you had already heard one or two songs ago. This led people to think that the randomizer wasn’t random, so Spotify had to go in and add code to ensure there was a sort of “cooldown” that would ensure that a song that had already played didn’t play again for a duration, which therefore made it statistically *less* random, but improved the perceived “randomness” by users.
I personally think this started with "Into the Light" i got 3 Shiny Elsie's rifles that all had the EXACT same roll, barrel, mag, third, and fourth column perks, and masterwork. The exact same things. I remember thinking that was weird but after The Final Shape things like that kept happening more and more, so I personally think it started there.
Same I felt it hunting Luna howl with heal clip and incandescent but I kept getting discord and this discord and this over and over again only getting one Luna to drop with the roll.
I am not at all gonna blame Bungie on this, it seems that this bug has probably been in the game since random rolls but never really has been discovered till now due to crafting, double rolls, etc. So as they said, not intentional perk wighting, justa bug that no one knew till now.
As a programmer, I’m guessing that they are using a consistent seed, or anchor, as you will for generating their randomness. In code, a Random function does not produce true “Random” numbers but rather psudoRandom numbers. I’m guessing the context for which the seed is being created is being replicated in a similar manner in a very obtuse piece of code
'Random is not ever truly random' is the reason that for actual random generation a company keeps a wall of lava lamps with a webcam pointed at it - it can produce a truly random number, unlike normal computing.
Honestly, after seeing the tweets and hearing the process... I'd love to hear what the meeting sounded like when bungie realized that the players weren't being Schizos, and it was actually an issue. I could certainly imagine an "Oh shit... they're right, they got the data" Cause like, let's be real. Even at full staffing, I imagine there is *no* reasonable way for bungie to actually test for something like this purely internally. This is one of those things that I imagine almost any dev team would probably need the players to find like this, cause you just need so much date to properly show the issue and prove it's there. It's awesome they were able to learn about this with player help. I haven't been following this till now, I hope the fanbase isn't too hard on them for this, after all, they're probably learning about this *with* us
Crazy how even the community manager was trying gas light the community, it’s like half the community wants to be elitist so badly that they just take any garbage elitist take from any TH-camr and try gas light as many people that it’s a good thing, while casting away anyone who can’t get on board. The “don’t like it don’t play” line getting thrown about will do wonders for the player count
It's the Destiny fanbase brother. They are always going to take it too hard on them. They are elitist and doomsayers going to create animosity out of everything, even if it's very stupid mistakes from Bungie and make echo chambers on it with the Content Creators just click baiting and feeding into to make it worse.
Thing is, this was all visible through the API but no one thought to even look/check until chill inhibitor prompted Newo to display the perks people were receiving. It's not that bungie couldn't have known or lacked the data, they just never bothered to check because as far as they were concerned there was no reason to Arguably they should have caught this when they first implemented random rolls which is when we suspect this problem originates from. After all the loot chase is the entire point of the game when it comes down to it
@@NyxK3 idk dude I tend to play games to have fun with the gameplay lol. Imagine playing devil may cry, and having fun but quitting because you had no new moves left to buy
People are pretty sure this has been going on since at least lightfall because circular logic has one of it's most desirable perk combinations 3 perks away, and that combination is also extremely underrepresented in weapon rolls.
I do think this is unintentional, so I see no malice in this. While some people say that to have such a rudimentary randomness mechanism is embarassing for bungie, I could see how someone could design something and implement it, and as long as nobody says anything negative, it stays in. The thing that really baffles me is not the original cause of the problem, but that with bungie saying so often that they're looking at and tracking data to improve aspects of the game, how this wasn't spotted for years. They have the data of all weapon drops, of inventories, all the things the community is now tracking + so much more, and this incredibly meaningful statistical difference has never been noticed? Especially if it seems to affect all randomized aspects of the game?
As I've written in other places, it's 1 of 2 things and i don't know which one is worse. Either they lied to keep play cycles longer or they're so incompetent that they have been building systems to circumvent their own trash RNG for years whether it be weapon crafting or creating guaranteed perks for exotic armor, which everyone seems to be forgetting for some reason.
@@ZagZagro No I don't think they are creating additional gameplay systems in plain sight (which requires UI development, gamification psychology/player feedback testing etc.) that are actually primarily supposed to (secretly?) circumvent their rng mechanic. That seems way to convoluted and terribly ineffective at that, since all the things you mention only apply to some weapons and or are optional. If they wanted to fix their randomness mechanism, I'm sure they would do that, instead of slowly introducing a bunch of resource-intensive partial solutions in the form of alternative offerings, which sounds like reading too much into it imo. How come you don't see the possibility that the RNG is bad, but not on purpose?
The thing is they might have access to all the data but there's no magic button to see all that data mapped out in an easily interpreted manner. They'd have to go out their way to do what the community ended up doing, and since they had no reason to they simply didn't. That's said it's their game and their responsibility so it's still on them that's it's give this long unnoticed. But yeh. Not like it was as obvious or easy to see as you might think
9:06, Hanlon's Razor in full effect. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity or incompetence", I don't imagine Bungie has done this intentionally either, we all know how Spaghetti the code in this game is and I wager none of them noticed this was happening until now.
Hanlon's Razer is always overlooked. Everyone assumes malice when in reality, ignorance or incompetence are far more likely. Hell, sometimes, sh!t just happens.
@@Razzy-sr4oq In the triple A industry we are at the point where if everyone is actually this incompetent the industry deserves to crash or it's malicious actors surrounding themselves with incompetent workers.
I ALWAYS said that we can not just assume perks are not weighted, not saying Bungie is doing it on purpose, but computers are actually REALLY bad at randomness
End of the video thoughts are probably correct, algo that determines table choice must be old and not really looked at often or audited past its initial implementation, and whatever it's doing has lead to an unintentional pattern in shortest-route taking
@@WongcsableHonestly I really hope they do this lol Pseudo-randomness is a problem tackled and implemented much better by many more capable teams and that lava lamp wall from Cloudflare is my favourite.
ok so there may have not been intentional from ALL devs but when some weapons have the "god roll" and its very specifically the furthest away from one another making it extremely hard to get, and then other wapons are very close so its easy to get the god roll, I wouldn't be shocked if there are devs who know this or its ALWAYS BEEN KNOWN, and devs are told to make sure not to actually abuse this odd quirk in the code and some do abuse it
This is such a fascinating situation because there are *any number* of small, miniscule changes in how RNG functions are built and used that could cause this purely accidentally, and it's basically impossible to notice without filtering through thousands if not hundreds of thousands of data points. As deeply fucked as it is, I don't blame anyone at Bungie for missing this, it's the kind of nonsense you literally can't see unless you're actively looking for it. A fun wrinkle someone found is how the weird perk-distance-weight works with weapons with more than six perks: Notably, it's not just a stable gradient, it *alternates.* Probability drops at Distance-1, goes back up for Distance-2, drops again for Distance-3, goes back up a bit lower for Distance-4, etc. etc. Look at the chart for Anonymous Autumn for example, and you see literal order of magnitude peaks and valleys right next to each other, it's absurd.
This shit may have been weighted well before that but had less attention, when rampage 120s could 2 tap I think I farmed like 15+ igneous's and I don't think I saw rampage once. On the topic of Bungies intent, it likely was a mistake but it's kinda a joke that they just immediately denied it until the community proved it as extensively as possible, seems like it would drive player engagement in their favour the same way that removing crafting drives player engagement (gamble forever with odds that are like like 1/36 best case scenario but more like 1 in thousands when stats matter, not taking weighting into account now lol)
i like your carefull and correct wording. to many people throw around the "weighting" or "manipulating" words without understanding what is actually happening
The craziest thing is that this checkerboard pattern dates back to the release of Witch Queen... which is when crafting was introduced. Pretty much anything from Risen to Revenant that isn't craftable has the pattern with some exceptions. Before then, you can't find a single instance of this pattern.
There's evidence it actually goes all the way back to Forsaken. I saw a chart of the perks on the OG release Crooked Fang-4fr that had the same pattern as the charts at 5:52.
it likely was introduced when random rolls came back to the game in Forsaken, and the RNG system for how weapons are generated hasn't been touched since then, the checkered pattern still shows on some of those older weapons just harder to track now since most players aren't keeping all those drops still.
Ive always loved crafting, because ive always had crap luck. Its nice to be able to get what i want, without stressing about if im gonna get it in one run, or in a hundred runs. I guess this explains why i have bad luck though.
For some reason Datto is championing removing crafting by gas lighting the community and feeding bungie garbage, abrasive takes. So hope u dont get too comfortable with the bad luck system because datto wants it removed.
That’s actually crazy. I tracked cataphract and cold comfort rolls last year and I noticed the same pattern, and I really thought something was happening. But someone like me can’t do much about it so I didn’t do anything about it
I would not at all be surprised if this was just a coding goof someone needed to make to get the system out the door. I mean, this system has been in the game and likely near-untouched since Forsaken, with the only potential major update being Witch Queen.
Looks like it so far. Had it been intentional to keep people grinding they would have always put the best perks far away from each other to maximise the time spent grinding, but that’s not even close to the case.
Thank you, datto, for keeping a balanced and fair view. A lot of people are pissed, equating this to the xp throttling fiasco from d2 vanilla. I think this is Bungie investigating an issue in the obvious, but wrong, direction, and finding no problem. Rng equations like this are really easy to set and forget for years, I mean this really could go all the way back to Forsaken. It's completely possible this was an experimental file left buried in a folder by a developer who no longer works at bungie.
It's wild because you can still see the same pattern on certain weapons dating all the way back to season of the dawn. I think it becomes hard to see on older seasons because of two reasons: a lot of them have been dismantled, only the good/better rolls have been kept so it skews it. That being said it's insane that you can still see the same pattern dating so far back. I don't even know how quickly a solve could be for this given how integral loot is for the game
I'm moreso than anything amazed how long this seems to have been a thing that we just haven't noticed or maybe been bothered enough by to actually put enough attention on it to get it resolved. Which at this point is still assuming there is actually a problem, although the data at this point is *pretty* strongly indicating that there is one.
I agree that this issue was not done maliciously or even on purpose at all, but I think that the issue itself spans to way before TFS. The perk weighing issue has been brought up in the community before and just went nowhere because we had crafting to fall back on. The last time that I actually remember seeing posts about it was for the Linear Fusion from Caiatl in Duality. The 3 burst arc one that I don't remember the name of that was the first of it's subtype iirc. It was meta back then before it was usurped by the craftable Taipan with the Veist origin perk. We do have way more data to go on this time around and I'm very interested to see what Bungie finds in their simulations, but will be very disappointed if they try to downplay what they find. They really need some good will right now though so I very much doubt that they'll do that.
We had this with Luna's Howl - incandescent & heal clip from the original Onslaught. That perk combination just didn't drop often and when people complained - including me - we were told it was just 'rng' and I knew it wasn't.
@alexwilliamson9562 real. But seeing how d2 y1 had no random rolls that means that d1 most likely has the same problem with perk weighting because this first appears in foresaken
@@Jake-ALGSxNBPLdefinitely a pattern showing since shadow keep. Honestly funniest thing about all this is how recently everyone went anti crafting. Who would’ve guessed stacking crazy rng and having no bad luck protection system( like crafting ) wouldn’t be very fulfilling
The fact that we haven't noticed for years means that the alternative options that were available (Weapon Crafting, Double Perks, Weapon Focusing) were viable enough solutions to mitigate bad RNG. But it took Bungie slowly moving away from them (Less weapons to craft, Focusing being more expensive, not offering Double Perks in some high value content like Dungeons) for us to notice how bad the base system was. We need to preserve the ways we curb RNG or offer other solutions that make things more deterministic (perk targetting a la Exotic Class Items).
yea telling yea we know there game better then they do even though they made there own in house engine...but comeone bungie we know i mean you did try to throttle our XP 7 FUCKING YEARS AGO
i mean you gotta realize that you sound a lot like those people who said that the hurricane only hit red districts right? where i know that they throttled XP 7 years ago i don't think it was that deep 7 years ago when the weapons only had one roll
When I first heard about this I threw together a random weapon generator to simulate how many times I would need to run it till I got the God roll (like a random name picker, but themed for the GL to include 2 barrels, 2 Magazines, 2 traits and a Masterwork). I ran it 500+ times, and only got Envious Arsenal / Bait and Switch to "drop" about 8-10 times, 3 of which were the true 5/5 (Quick launch, Spike, EA, BnS and a handling MW.
Smells like correlated seeding of the random number generator to me. Their entropy system is failing somewhere between the rolling of one perk and the rolling of the second.
Maybe I just started noticing it now, but recently been coming across an issue in Onslaught when a friend and I use bleak watchers. It seems like if there's too many the server gets overwhelmed and all damage calulation gets essentially nullified until the bleak watchers start to disapper. Literally no damage is dealt either by the player or the enemies during this time. I've had grenades, supers, and abilities just disappear into the void. Even the airstrike just disappears. Usually lasts for 10-40 seconds until the server catches up I guess. Never had any lag during this time, so I think it's probably just a server communication issue.
I had a suspicion something like this was in the game after spending more engrams than I can count on riiswalker and fortissimo-11 and never getting the rolls I wanted but repeatedly getting the same unwanted rolls, often multiple times in a row.
This isn't a bug technically and it's not intentional either. It's a probability issue and poor updating on the code. If you roll two 6 sided dice, the probability of rolling a 2 or a 12 is lower than rolling a 7 or 8. That's because each dice has multiple arrangements to roll the 7 and 8, (1 and 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 6 and 1 - just for the number 7). 12 would need double 6, so 1/6th of the chance of 7. This is how weapon rolls are selected - each one is assigned a number and the digital dice are rolled behind the scenes The more perks you add (there used to be 4 per column per weapon, now there are as many as 12) the less chance you get of rolling a perk at the extreme end (I.e. rolling a 12 or a 2) I wrote something similar doing my maths degree to design an unbeatable D&D campaign for fun. It's exactly the same statistical weighting as these weapon drops and can be presented in the exact same way.
I had been farming brave weapons for the past few weeks for some rolls that I missed and I definitely noticed that some perks were just not dropping at all for me, like I've been trying to get the envious/bait edge transit and I can literally count on one hand how many times I've gotten one of these two perks
This is super fascinating in terms of human behavior. While I totally believe that Bungie's "RNG" is not truly random, actual randomness is fairly impossible to create, and people who write code are always introducing subtle interactions that are crazy hard to see and debug. That said, this could still easily effectively be numerology. If you look at any sufficiently complicated data you will always find patterns. Most likely this is all some combination of both factors, Bungie's code is somewhat biased in unintended ways and some of the patterns the community has found are actually relevant.
The community complains about the game not retaining them because of crafting removing the rng based grind. Crafting is axed for this seasons activities and dungeon. People now complain about rng completely disrespecting their time, because of course it would, it's rng. There is no winning for these people.
They’re all high off their own special datto gaslighting fumes. Honestly the game is cooked this abrasive side of the community showed there power when they got crafting this season removed and I doubt bungie will realise they’re listening to the devil on their shoulder and not the angel before it’s too late
It 100% has to be a bug, since it was confirmed that there is no mechanic coded in at all. Maybe the RNG seeding is staying at a very lopsided seed, or the RNG itself got borked, or smth similar. Using the recent weapons is admittingly a bad example because there's too few weapons to see a statistically significant trend, but the fact that the trend is the EXACT same for EVERY random roll weapon in the past few episode acts/seasons is genuinely wild.
as a player, i can understand the frustration, but I echo the sentiment that learning all the weird spaghetti-code quirks that Destiny has is simultaneously fascinating *and horrifying*
LOVE LOVE when the Math Nerds have a chance to Explain Statistically Significant differences in Data Sets & Number Theory 💯💯✌🏽✌🏽 Math Nerds Rise Up on Statistically Significant Deltas in Sigma 💪🏽💪🏽🤓🤓
Honestly, the crazy god tier perk combos are what killed D2. In D1, there were some, but it wasn't that common. In D2, that has been the focus of the game instead of the feel of shooting aliens, and that's bad. I want it to feel good to shoot aliens again. Scout rifle one tap headshots to most lower redbars.
I don't think this is actually due to the RNG seed being generated improperly. My guess is that weapon rolls are generated by consecutive calls to the RNG generator, and that consecutive RNG values are correlated in the way to give the distribution shown in the weapon rolls. That is, the game looks at the RNG value to generate the first perk, RNG advances by one step, and then the game looks at the new RNG value to generate the second perk, etc. Due to how pseudo-random number generators function, there are only a finite number of ways that the RNG can advance by only one step, and this will most likely correlate consecutive values in a distinctly non-random way. Of course, I have no idea what RNG system Bungie is using in their game, so this is all wild speculation. But this distribution is just screaming "correlated consecutive RNG calls" to me, especially since the most obvious way to generate all the random rolls on weapons is to generate each perk with consecutive RNG calls, and the fact that the distribution is symmetric along the diagonal implies no one perk on its own is favored or disfavored, only certain combinations are.
me who’s gotten envious and bns drop twice on this gl with spike grenades and alloy casing… and got the god roll midnight coup on my second go of onslaught…
While I don't fully consider Bungie as malicious in this situation, there isn't any denying what has happened in the past. Namely, when Bungie was caught throttling EXP gains and people found out shortly after Destiny 2 released. I don't fully trust them, but I don't fully mistrust them.
I find it funny that the community is focusing on this now, it's been pretty obvious that Bungie weights their weapon drop rules for a long time. The amount of time I spent looking for a god roll Rose is clear evidence of that 💀
He is a known Bungie Enabler, kinda crazy how him and other “”elitist”” TH-camrs gas lit so many people into think that more numbing grind is a good thing. Yes remove craftable seasonal weapons so there’s 0 bad luck protection, there’s no reason to do the seasonal activity anyway it’s not like it’s good, oh we could’ve just tied the once a week red border to the seasonal activity… stfu stop being negative actually it was you that asked for this🤓
@@alexwilliamson9562 it’s more so consistency over the years I’ve seen him use kid gloves when talking about bungie controversy’s or things they’re doing wrong, on top of the fact I swear anytime he complains about something it gets addressed or talked about by bungie within weeks.
I'm curious what all this data means for weapons with massive perk pools; like Trust. This really is a silly little quirk that only could've been properly tested through this much rigorous inquiring outside of a testing grounds they probably use for such formulae. Also, it felt like an out of body experience hearing my Attrition Orbs/Kinetic Tremors Multimach get mentioned. I thought I was kinda wacky for chasing that roll back in Season 23.
I’ve gotten 100s of Truthtellers and never Danger Zone. Huh. 30+ Warlords Ruin and no Voltshot sidearm. And I thought it was only guns with lotsa perks in the pool? Obviously their algorithm is warped. I was a IT QA script writer right before retirement. Used statistics a lot along with testers of the app pre release. Perhaps Bungie scrimped on testing? Thanks, Datto!
I MIGHT write my computer science final project based on this
do that yes, hope it goes well
we are gonna need an update on if u passed or failed, If u actually use this for ur cs final project
that would be very cool. if you do you should post your project publicly as well. reading through it would be interesting
Please do i would love to read the deep dive on something like this cause another comment suggested that its a bug that only JUST now came up. Additionally it could be Bungie just lying. Both would be fascinating tbh.
I would love to hear some updates to this. Live long and prosper you legend.
I find it so humorous that people were so upset about their weapon drops that they went through all of this to prove their theory. Truly heroes.
Tbf some people do have 8 hour a day jobs and getting home and spending hours a day grinding to not get the roll you want makes sense that people would start getting pissed and or suss.
@@tommiles4508I work full-time and go to school for electrical engineering at the same time. I only play about 1 hour a day and have no problem with grinding. If you don’t like the grind, you don’t like Destiny. As simple and blunt as that.
@@tommiles4508 Or you accept you didn’t get the roll and move on. If this ends up actually being an issue, I want them to fix it obviously, but lol
It’s wild. Like it’s literally been 3 weeks into the act. We have sooo long to get the rolls we want
@@tommiles4508I hate when mfs use this excuse. If you actually like the game you wouldn’t care if you got the roll or not, challenge yourself in the game instead of chasing god rolls with the little time you apparently say you have with the game.
Who would win in a fight? The Destiny Spaghetti code or the Community’s Schizophrenia
They both lose, they each overdosed before the fight.
😂
Immovable object vs unstoppable force
I don't think anyone wins in that case 🤣
“If Bungie explained it to me, it may cause me a little trouble”
“But, would you be wrong?”
“Nah, I’m right”
The Destiny community would become experts in astrophysics overnight if it ever affected their loot.
yea where i would love to read all of there dissertations on quantum calculations on there god rolls
The most likely reason this happened was because one programmer in charge of random rolls had logic that looked to be working when testing and for a long time was never noticed. There's evidence this has been in the game for a long time, it was just found now, so Bungie thinks there's no weighting but upon review by Skarrow there was.
Yeah, that is what I was thinking. As long as it’s an accident and not on purpose, I don’t think it’s a big deal.
Good ol spaghetti code and technical debt
I wouldn't be surprised if this bug has existed ever since random rolled weapons got added back into the game with Forsaken, it was a pretty late choice to bring random rolls back based on the information we have from the original community summit in 2018. Entirely possible this RNG fault slipped through the cracks as they were reworking D2's weapon setup to have random perk rolls again, and we are only just discovering this now because it took awhile for perk pools to inflate to the size they are now, and this was just the first time it happened with a desirable combo.
@@toxicear5274 Idk think even if it is an accident (which I do think it is), this is still a MASSIVE screw-up. Earning loot is quite literally the fundamental core of this game, and having a bug exist for potentially YEARS that breaks the entire loot grind and makes thousands, potentially millions of hours pointless…yeah that’s very bad. This kind of thing should not have happened.
It's almost certainly caused by correlated seeding of random rolls. The perks likely being rolled one after the other and system clock or some other random seeding data not having enough time between the rolls to fully decouple the random number seeding. In the (very) old days you would see games throw up the same random result multiple times in the same minute because the minute value of system clock was part of the seeding for the random number generator. Modern RNG systems are much more sophisticated than that now but potentially still prone to correlated seeding.
Our opinion has arrived.
I can finally think now that he's said something
Your original comment is lost in transit though.
Opinion (Timelost)
watched paul tassi vid before this. interesting information if true
holy fuck can y’all find a new joke
I think it's really interesting how the community digging into the API is helping Bungie to solve the issue, I'm looking forward to a potential dev insight as well
The stereo in my car plays A Perfect Circle a quarter of the time when it's on shuffle. High quality random number distribution is tough to get from computers.
Good show from everyone on chasing this down, and on Bungie for making such deep staticial analysis possible with a public API.
This is a pretty easy mistake to make, implementation-wise. It's trivial to design a system that outputs seemingly random results while treating the actual pseudorandom number generator as a truly random black box, which it almost certainly is not. This problem comes up a lot in cryptography, and is often known as the random oracle assumption
nah i am a destiny 2 player therefore i must scream
Random oracle association. Huh. That's really cool, actually. Thanks for sharing this, I've done learned a new thing lol
Yeah I definitely don’t think this is bungie. More so a very hard bug to find that finally happened to pop up now
Yeah anyone thinking this is malicious 1) doesn’t understand the spaghetti code of destiny (and the skeleton crew they have 2) are looking to make bungie a villain but they do that outside of stuff like this
Technically it is but definitely not malicious
It's something you'd only be able to catch by checking on the massive amount of data generated by the live game servers. But it is kinda baffling that a core part of the game (how the loot is generated) had zero eyes on the live statistics or automated analysis that would have noticed this behaviour without the community doing it.
This didnt just happen now its been there for along time. They just dont have the data since everyone throw away the shit rolls of the weapons so it fks the results in the API.
throating it
Destiny and controversy go together like peanut butter and jelly at this point
Like Germans and antisemitism!
With a baseball batt
And nothing will keep the game, community has been too Pavlov'd into playing a different game that's actually good
@@inventor4279 It’s so sad to see man. I’ll grant that this isn’t the most shining example of the level of controversy the game has been mired in, but still, holy hell.
It’s especially depressing because Destiny 1 quite literally saved my life. For reasons I won’t get into, the game, and the franchise as a whole, came into my life at a time when I really needed it. To see it ran as far into the ground as it has been in recent times has been quite sad.
@@ebgbees you deserve better, just because it helped you at a tough time, doesn't mean it deserves to threat you bad now, make the plunge, I quit almost two years ago and I've never looked back ❤️
The only solution is to give me (and only me) a godroll VS Chill Inhibitor and then not actually fix the issue for anyone else.
9:06 Emphasis on this! I’ve seen so many people making conspiracy theories and accusing Bungie of intentionally weighting the drops in this way to make players play for longer
Bungie themselves said in a tweet there is no intentional weighting, but who knows, I wouldn't be too surprised if they're doing this to make us play longer 😭
Bungie has a bad record with this. previously they denied XP throttling and were proven to be lying based on data, and now bungie has said there’s no RNG weighting yet the community has proven there is based on the data. There’s also the fact that it leads to more player engagement, bungie directly benefits from this RNG glitch existing
@@fort809And more recently they've also done the following to inflate player engagement metrics:
- The old transmog system being too convoluted
- Ada-1 selling mods on a rotating basis for way, way too long (they still do this with shaders)
- The old crafting system
- The initial launch of exotic class items
- Intentionally adding garbage perks to fill out the perk pool
- Outright removing crafting from this Episode's seasonal weapons
- And then the usual "hey you're only allowed to have one lottery ticket per character per week without any way of grinding your way into getting more sorry bud" bullshit
And now THIS happens. Intentional or not, at this point this is such a Bungie feature they'd sneakily add in several months down the line.
All i can say is that i love that there is still people that care enough about this game to figure this out.
I just remember my grind for Servant Leader back in Witch queen. I wanted Rapid Hit/Kill Clip, and it took me about 650 games, and 12 resets just to get those two perks together. I would get RH and something else, or something else and KC, even with the potential to get 3 perks in each slot, it took far too long to get those two together.
I was looking for the same roll!
When they first updated it with an origin trait, I got to four resets before focusing it. Used all of my engrams and got nothing. Got a random drop from a match while going for more engrams.
Couple of seasons later they added Field-tested to it and I did it all again. I got one with RH/KC.
Between two seasons, waiting until after four resets to focus any engrams and I managed to get one copy with RH/KC out of ~100 engrams.
The rng in the game is awful and everyone who is against crafting can go to hell.
Till this day I haven't even gotten Heal Clip/Incandescent roll on Abberant Action and even if it's craftable, I quickly noticed somethings wrong already with the perks weighing. Turns out I was right.
Controversy? In Destiny? I'll try and contain my lack of surprise.
But let's be real - its what people make out of it. Its mostly just people crying lol
@@HipHopSpecialMusik”your right datto I asked for this actually, I love you I’ll come back to bed could you maybe not hit my this time though?”
@@HipHopSpecialMusikplayer count will be funny to see in the coming months
This reminds me of the Spotify randomizer situation. When users set a playlist to “random” it would literally pick at random any song to play. Sometimes, this meant that it would either replay a song you had already heard one or two songs ago. This led people to think that the randomizer wasn’t random, so Spotify had to go in and add code to ensure there was a sort of “cooldown” that would ensure that a song that had already played didn’t play again for a duration, which therefore made it statistically *less* random, but improved the perceived “randomness” by users.
Pretty sure that was iTunes - much longer ago.
I personally think this started with "Into the Light" i got 3 Shiny Elsie's rifles that all had the EXACT same roll, barrel, mag, third, and fourth column perks, and masterwork. The exact same things. I remember thinking that was weird but after The Final Shape things like that kept happening more and more, so I personally think it started there.
Yea and also spamming vendor engrams for me felt like I get the same rolls back to back sometimes.
Same I felt it hunting Luna howl with heal clip and incandescent but I kept getting discord and this discord and this over and over again only getting one Luna to drop with the roll.
the bugged rng pattern goes back to forsaken
@@elliehugg you're probably right, I've always felt like things haven't been completely RNG.
It started in season of plunder
Bungie not realizing there's an algorithm to how often perks are dropped is like finding a new glitch with Telesto once new content is added...
We have all been eagerly anticipating our opinion on this matter since it blew up. Thank you Datto for providing it.
ahh yes, the true final shape of the destiny universe. A gradient pattern on a perk grid
I am not at all gonna blame Bungie on this, it seems that this bug has probably been in the game since random rolls but never really has been discovered till now due to crafting, double rolls, etc. So as they said, not intentional perk wighting, justa bug that no one knew till now.
As a programmer, I’m guessing that they are using a consistent seed, or anchor, as you will for generating their randomness. In code, a Random function does not produce true “Random” numbers but rather psudoRandom numbers. I’m guessing the context for which the seed is being created is being replicated in a similar manner in a very obtuse piece of code
nah i am a destiny 2 player therefore i must scream
'Random is not ever truly random' is the reason that for actual random generation a company keeps a wall of lava lamps with a webcam pointed at it - it can produce a truly random number, unlike normal computing.
Honestly, after seeing the tweets and hearing the process... I'd love to hear what the meeting sounded like when bungie realized that the players weren't being Schizos, and it was actually an issue. I could certainly imagine an "Oh shit... they're right, they got the data"
Cause like, let's be real. Even at full staffing, I imagine there is *no* reasonable way for bungie to actually test for something like this purely internally. This is one of those things that I imagine almost any dev team would probably need the players to find like this, cause you just need so much date to properly show the issue and prove it's there. It's awesome they were able to learn about this with player help. I haven't been following this till now, I hope the fanbase isn't too hard on them for this, after all, they're probably learning about this *with* us
Crazy how even the community manager was trying gas light the community, it’s like half the community wants to be elitist so badly that they just take any garbage elitist take from any TH-camr and try gas light as many people that it’s a good thing, while casting away anyone who can’t get on board. The “don’t like it don’t play” line getting thrown about will do wonders for the player count
It's the Destiny fanbase brother. They are always going to take it too hard on them. They are elitist and doomsayers going to create animosity out of everything, even if it's very stupid mistakes from Bungie and make echo chambers on it with the Content Creators just click baiting and feeding into to make it worse.
Thing is, this was all visible through the API but no one thought to even look/check until chill inhibitor prompted Newo to display the perks people were receiving.
It's not that bungie couldn't have known or lacked the data, they just never bothered to check because as far as they were concerned there was no reason to
Arguably they should have caught this when they first implemented random rolls which is when we suspect this problem originates from. After all the loot chase is the entire point of the game when it comes down to it
@@NyxK3 idk dude I tend to play games to have fun with the gameplay lol.
Imagine playing devil may cry, and having fun but quitting because you had no new moves left to buy
People are pretty sure this has been going on since at least lightfall because circular logic has one of it's most desirable perk combinations 3 perks away, and that combination is also extremely underrepresented in weapon rolls.
I do think this is unintentional, so I see no malice in this. While some people say that to have such a rudimentary randomness mechanism is embarassing for bungie, I could see how someone could design something and implement it, and as long as nobody says anything negative, it stays in. The thing that really baffles me is not the original cause of the problem, but that with bungie saying so often that they're looking at and tracking data to improve aspects of the game, how this wasn't spotted for years. They have the data of all weapon drops, of inventories, all the things the community is now tracking + so much more, and this incredibly meaningful statistical difference has never been noticed? Especially if it seems to affect all randomized aspects of the game?
As I've written in other places, it's 1 of 2 things and i don't know which one is worse. Either they lied to keep play cycles longer or they're so incompetent that they have been building systems to circumvent their own trash RNG for years whether it be weapon crafting or creating guaranteed perks for exotic armor, which everyone seems to be forgetting for some reason.
@@ZagZagro No I don't think they are creating additional gameplay systems in plain sight (which requires UI development, gamification psychology/player feedback testing etc.) that are actually primarily supposed to (secretly?) circumvent their rng mechanic. That seems way to convoluted and terribly ineffective at that, since all the things you mention only apply to some weapons and or are optional. If they wanted to fix their randomness mechanism, I'm sure they would do that, instead of slowly introducing a bunch of resource-intensive partial solutions in the form of alternative offerings, which sounds like reading too much into it imo.
How come you don't see the possibility that the RNG is bad, but not on purpose?
@@ZagZagrothey’re not stupid enough to lie about something like this
The thing is they might have access to all the data but there's no magic button to see all that data mapped out in an easily interpreted manner. They'd have to go out their way to do what the community ended up doing, and since they had no reason to they simply didn't. That's said it's their game and their responsibility so it's still on them that's it's give this long unnoticed. But yeh. Not like it was as obvious or easy to see as you might think
9:06, Hanlon's Razor in full effect. "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity or incompetence", I don't imagine Bungie has done this intentionally either, we all know how Spaghetti the code in this game is and I wager none of them noticed this was happening until now.
Hanlon's cope, lmao.
Hanlon's Razer is always overlooked. Everyone assumes malice when in reality, ignorance or incompetence are far more likely. Hell, sometimes, sh!t just happens.
@@Razzy-sr4oq In the triple A industry we are at the point where if everyone is actually this incompetent the industry deserves to crash or it's malicious actors surrounding themselves with incompetent workers.
I ALWAYS said that we can not just assume perks are not weighted, not saying Bungie is doing it on purpose, but computers are actually REALLY bad at randomness
EXACTLY
You try to code in Randomness the computer won't think really
End of the video thoughts are probably correct, algo that determines table choice must be old and not really looked at often or audited past its initial implementation, and whatever it's doing has lead to an unintentional pattern in shortest-route taking
Time for Bungie to invest in a couple dozen lava lamps
@@WongcsableHonestly I really hope they do this lol
Pseudo-randomness is a problem tackled and implemented much better by many more capable teams and that lava lamp wall from Cloudflare is my favourite.
These community puzzles are getting crazy at this point. We're out here tearing the game code apart now? Wild
ok so there may have not been intentional from ALL devs but when some weapons have the "god roll" and its very specifically the furthest away from one another making it extremely hard to get, and then other wapons are very close so its easy to get the god roll, I wouldn't be shocked if there are devs who know this or its ALWAYS BEEN KNOWN, and devs are told to make sure not to actually abuse this odd quirk in the code and some do abuse it
This is such a fascinating situation because there are *any number* of small, miniscule changes in how RNG functions are built and used that could cause this purely accidentally, and it's basically impossible to notice without filtering through thousands if not hundreds of thousands of data points. As deeply fucked as it is, I don't blame anyone at Bungie for missing this, it's the kind of nonsense you literally can't see unless you're actively looking for it.
A fun wrinkle someone found is how the weird perk-distance-weight works with weapons with more than six perks: Notably, it's not just a stable gradient, it *alternates.* Probability drops at Distance-1, goes back up for Distance-2, drops again for Distance-3, goes back up a bit lower for Distance-4, etc. etc. Look at the chart for Anonymous Autumn for example, and you see literal order of magnitude peaks and valleys right next to each other, it's absurd.
The amount of people taking "this wasnt intentional but it's happening anyway" as "we did it intentionally" is so dumb
This shit may have been weighted well before that but had less attention, when rampage 120s could 2 tap I think I farmed like 15+ igneous's and I don't think I saw rampage once.
On the topic of Bungies intent, it likely was a mistake but it's kinda a joke that they just immediately denied it until the community proved it as extensively as possible, seems like it would drive player engagement in their favour the same way that removing crafting drives player engagement (gamble forever with odds that are like like 1/36 best case scenario but more like 1 in thousands when stats matter, not taking weighting into account now lol)
Always felt like some perks almost paired together on guns so this totally makes sense.
i like your carefull and correct wording. to many people throw around the "weighting" or "manipulating" words without understanding what is actually happening
The craziest thing is that this checkerboard pattern dates back to the release of Witch Queen... which is when crafting was introduced. Pretty much anything from Risen to Revenant that isn't craftable has the pattern with some exceptions. Before then, you can't find a single instance of this pattern.
There's evidence it actually goes all the way back to Forsaken. I saw a chart of the perks on the OG release Crooked Fang-4fr that had the same pattern as the charts at 5:52.
it likely was introduced when random rolls came back to the game in Forsaken, and the RNG system for how weapons are generated hasn't been touched since then, the checkered pattern still shows on some of those older weapons just harder to track now since most players aren't keeping all those drops still.
@jashserfus ain’t no way your trying to turn bungies cock up into a crafting caused perk weighting conspiracy 😂😂😂
Ive always loved crafting, because ive always had crap luck. Its nice to be able to get what i want, without stressing about if im gonna get it in one run, or in a hundred runs. I guess this explains why i have bad luck though.
For some reason Datto is championing removing crafting by gas lighting the community and feeding bungie garbage, abrasive takes. So hope u dont get too comfortable with the bad luck system because datto wants it removed.
That’s actually crazy. I tracked cataphract and cold comfort rolls last year and I noticed the same pattern, and I really thought something was happening. But someone like me can’t do much about it so I didn’t do anything about it
Optimization often leads to "good enough" solutions sometimes. This pattern really reads like a "seems random enough and not too heavy," type thing.
I would not at all be surprised if this was just a coding goof someone needed to make to get the system out the door. I mean, this system has been in the game and likely near-untouched since Forsaken, with the only potential major update being Witch Queen.
Looks like it so far. Had it been intentional to keep people grinding they would have always put the best perks far away from each other to maximise the time spent grinding, but that’s not even close to the case.
Fantastic summary, especially mentioning the mitigating factors like crafting and double-perks for noticing this issue earlier.
Thank you, datto, for keeping a balanced and fair view. A lot of people are pissed, equating this to the xp throttling fiasco from d2 vanilla. I think this is Bungie investigating an issue in the obvious, but wrong, direction, and finding no problem. Rng equations like this are really easy to set and forget for years, I mean this really could go all the way back to Forsaken. It's completely possible this was an experimental file left buried in a folder by a developer who no longer works at bungie.
It's wild because you can still see the same pattern on certain weapons dating all the way back to season of the dawn. I think it becomes hard to see on older seasons because of two reasons: a lot of them have been dismantled, only the good/better rolls have been kept so it skews it. That being said it's insane that you can still see the same pattern dating so far back. I don't even know how quickly a solve could be for this given how integral loot is for the game
I don't have that rocket from Ghosts of the Deep either, bro. Feels bad, man.
I'm moreso than anything amazed how long this seems to have been a thing that we just haven't noticed or maybe been bothered enough by to actually put enough attention on it to get it resolved. Which at this point is still assuming there is actually a problem, although the data at this point is *pretty* strongly indicating that there is one.
I agree that this issue was not done maliciously or even on purpose at all, but I think that the issue itself spans to way before TFS. The perk weighing issue has been brought up in the community before and just went nowhere because we had crafting to fall back on. The last time that I actually remember seeing posts about it was for the Linear Fusion from Caiatl in Duality. The 3 burst arc one that I don't remember the name of that was the first of it's subtype iirc. It was meta back then before it was usurped by the craftable Taipan with the Veist origin perk.
We do have way more data to go on this time around and I'm very interested to see what Bungie finds in their simulations, but will be very disappointed if they try to downplay what they find. They really need some good will right now though so I very much doubt that they'll do that.
Rolling Def and HP on artifact rolls in Genshin Impact be like:
I mean, they are in fact weighted. You have more chance to roll minor flat stats, then %-stats and then cr and cd stats.
We had this with Luna's Howl - incandescent & heal clip from the original Onslaught. That perk combination just didn't drop often and when people complained - including me - we were told it was just 'rng' and I knew it wasn't.
As of 4 hours after this video its now confirmed that this problem is true and has been happening since sometime between foresaken and shadowkeep
Don’t tell dattos mob they have crazy Stockholm syndrome and are relentless
@alexwilliamson9562 real. But seeing how d2 y1 had no random rolls that means that d1 most likely has the same problem with perk weighting because this first appears in foresaken
@@Jake-ALGSxNBPLdefinitely a pattern showing since shadow keep. Honestly funniest thing about all this is how recently everyone went anti crafting. Who would’ve guessed stacking crazy rng and having no bad luck protection system( like crafting ) wouldn’t be very fulfilling
@@alexwilliamson9562 if random rolls were just pre determined patterns this whole time. What else do we and the devs not know about
Source?
Same guys that throttled xp. Yea, I'm gonna believe anything they say🤦♂️
I've gotten one. It rolled with envious arsenal and bait n switch. There goes my rng for the year
The fact that we haven't noticed for years means that the alternative options that were available (Weapon Crafting, Double Perks, Weapon Focusing) were viable enough solutions to mitigate bad RNG. But it took Bungie slowly moving away from them (Less weapons to craft, Focusing being more expensive, not offering Double Perks in some high value content like Dungeons) for us to notice how bad the base system was.
We need to preserve the ways we curb RNG or offer other solutions that make things more deterministic (perk targetting a la Exotic Class Items).
CLEARLY the problem is happening because the weight grid looks like the Unstoppable Champion symbol and no one ever actually stuns those guys!
The numbers, Mason! What do they mean!
the pattern in perk distribution reeks of someone improperly using modular arithmetic
it’s just an unfortunate situation. I guess now we have to see how long we’ve been affected by this.
Since 2014 I’m sure.
@@FalconStkr1 no i think when we say it in halo ODST i mean it had to be made right
Guessing we get a diagonal striped emblem out of this when the dust settles.
i'm ngl i thought it was over with when bungie said that it wasn't a thing but goes to show how much i know the community
Nobody can smell bullsh*t like the Gaming Community
yea telling yea we know there game better then they do even though they made there own in house engine...but comeone bungie we know i mean you did try to throttle our XP 7 FUCKING YEARS AGO
The unemployed are truly devastated rn.
This is super interesting. I can't imagine that this was accidental. Either way, this explains a lot.
i mean you gotta realize that you sound a lot like those people who said that the hurricane only hit red districts right? where i know that they throttled XP 7 years ago i don't think it was that deep 7 years ago when the weapons only had one roll
Oh so that’s why I haven’t been able to get a pugilist/hatchling breachlight
Great job putting this out so quick!
When I first heard about this I threw together a random weapon generator to simulate how many times I would need to run it till I got the God roll (like a random name picker, but themed for the GL to include 2 barrels, 2 Magazines, 2 traits and a Masterwork). I ran it 500+ times, and only got Envious Arsenal / Bait and Switch to "drop" about 8-10 times, 3 of which were the true 5/5 (Quick launch, Spike, EA, BnS and a handling MW.
Smells like correlated seeding of the random number generator to me. Their entropy system is failing somewhere between the rolling of one perk and the rolling of the second.
Maybe I just started noticing it now, but recently been coming across an issue in Onslaught when a friend and I use bleak watchers. It seems like if there's too many the server gets overwhelmed and all damage calulation gets essentially nullified until the bleak watchers start to disapper. Literally no damage is dealt either by the player or the enemies during this time. I've had grenades, supers, and abilities just disappear into the void. Even the airstrike just disappears. Usually lasts for 10-40 seconds until the server catches up I guess. Never had any lag during this time, so I think it's probably just a server communication issue.
Imagine how bad it is on ritual weapons with 12 perks in each column, especially when you have no resets for double and tripple perks.
I didn't realize my orb/tremor multimach was so rare.
And god, is it good. easily my favorite of my favorites.
TLDR: yes. Perks are weighted or stacked against you. Nothing is truly random with RNG games.
I had a suspicion something like this was in the game after spending more engrams than I can count on riiswalker and fortissimo-11 and never getting the rolls I wanted but repeatedly getting the same unwanted rolls, often multiple times in a row.
balls farting 💯
Fax💯
The math and statistics don't lie!!!
This isn't a bug technically and it's not intentional either. It's a probability issue and poor updating on the code.
If you roll two 6 sided dice, the probability of rolling a 2 or a 12 is lower than rolling a 7 or 8. That's because each dice has multiple arrangements to roll the 7 and 8, (1 and 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 2, 6 and 1 - just for the number 7). 12 would need double 6, so 1/6th of the chance of 7. This is how weapon rolls are selected - each one is assigned a number and the digital dice are rolled behind the scenes
The more perks you add (there used to be 4 per column per weapon, now there are as many as 12) the less chance you get of rolling a perk at the extreme end (I.e. rolling a 12 or a 2)
I wrote something similar doing my maths degree to design an unbeatable D&D campaign for fun. It's exactly the same statistical weighting as these weapon drops and can be presented in the exact same way.
Oh gee the “exotics dont feel exotic” crowd is complaining certain OP perk combos are harder to get? What a surprise
I had been farming brave weapons for the past few weeks for some rolls that I missed and I definitely noticed that some perks were just not dropping at all for me, like I've been trying to get the envious/bait edge transit and I can literally count on one hand how many times I've gotten one of these two perks
This is super fascinating in terms of human behavior. While I totally believe that Bungie's "RNG" is not truly random, actual randomness is fairly impossible to create, and people who write code are always introducing subtle interactions that are crazy hard to see and debug. That said, this could still easily effectively be numerology. If you look at any sufficiently complicated data you will always find patterns. Most likely this is all some combination of both factors, Bungie's code is somewhat biased in unintended ways and some of the patterns the community has found are actually relevant.
6:20 - so Bungie is Unstoppable Champion?!😮
The community complains about the game not retaining them because of crafting removing the rng based grind. Crafting is axed for this seasons activities and dungeon. People now complain about rng completely disrespecting their time, because of course it would, it's rng.
There is no winning for these people.
They’re all high off their own special datto gaslighting fumes. Honestly the game is cooked this abrasive side of the community showed there power when they got crafting this season removed and I doubt bungie will realise they’re listening to the devil on their shoulder and not the angel before it’s too late
It 100% has to be a bug, since it was confirmed that there is no mechanic coded in at all.
Maybe the RNG seeding is staying at a very lopsided seed, or the RNG itself got borked, or smth similar.
Using the recent weapons is admittingly a bad example because there's too few weapons to see a statistically significant trend, but the fact that the trend is the EXACT same for EVERY random roll weapon in the past few episode acts/seasons is genuinely wild.
So this is why I could never get archers tempo precision instrument on point of the stag. The perks are 3 slots away from each other
as a player, i can understand the frustration, but I echo the sentiment that learning all the weird spaghetti-code quirks that Destiny has is simultaneously fascinating *and horrifying*
This would explain why I got 300 smth catafracts without envious bait and switch
LOVE LOVE when the Math Nerds have a chance to Explain Statistically Significant differences in Data Sets & Number Theory 💯💯✌🏽✌🏽 Math Nerds Rise Up on Statistically Significant Deltas in Sigma 💪🏽💪🏽🤓🤓
Honestly, the crazy god tier perk combos are what killed D2. In D1, there were some, but it wasn't that common. In D2, that has been the focus of the game instead of the feel of shooting aliens, and that's bad. I want it to feel good to shoot aliens again. Scout rifle one tap headshots to most lower redbars.
The diagonal line…
Hooray! My opinion on the perk weighting controversy is here!
Keep it. Just let us move the perks around ourselves so we can have an actual form of focusing that doesnt massively take away the grind experience.
They do know, and if they dont, they should. Its their game.
I don't think this is actually due to the RNG seed being generated improperly. My guess is that weapon rolls are generated by consecutive calls to the RNG generator, and that consecutive RNG values are correlated in the way to give the distribution shown in the weapon rolls. That is, the game looks at the RNG value to generate the first perk, RNG advances by one step, and then the game looks at the new RNG value to generate the second perk, etc. Due to how pseudo-random number generators function, there are only a finite number of ways that the RNG can advance by only one step, and this will most likely correlate consecutive values in a distinctly non-random way.
Of course, I have no idea what RNG system Bungie is using in their game, so this is all wild speculation. But this distribution is just screaming "correlated consecutive RNG calls" to me, especially since the most obvious way to generate all the random rolls on weapons is to generate each perk with consecutive RNG calls, and the fact that the distribution is symmetric along the diagonal implies no one perk on its own is favored or disfavored, only certain combinations are.
Thanks datto. You're a good man and thorough.
Datto told the coders to make a controversial thing in the game so Datto could have something to make a video on! Wake up Sheeple! Open your eyes!
Nah datto would make videos on anything
Destiny community really approaching the final shape, solving the ultimate Bungie community puzzle!
me who’s gotten envious and bns drop twice on this gl with spike grenades and alloy casing…
and got the god roll midnight coup on my second go of onslaught…
While I don't fully consider Bungie as malicious in this situation, there isn't any denying what has happened in the past. Namely, when Bungie was caught throttling EXP gains and people found out shortly after Destiny 2 released. I don't fully trust them, but I don't fully mistrust them.
I find it funny that the community is focusing on this now, it's been pretty obvious that Bungie weights their weapon drop rules for a long time.
The amount of time I spent looking for a god roll Rose is clear evidence of that 💀
Datto respectfully I believe you to be on bungies payroll.
He is a known Bungie Enabler, kinda crazy how him and other “”elitist”” TH-camrs gas lit so many people into think that more numbing grind is a good thing. Yes remove craftable seasonal weapons so there’s 0 bad luck protection, there’s no reason to do the seasonal activity anyway it’s not like it’s good, oh we could’ve just tied the once a week red border to the seasonal activity… stfu stop being negative actually it was you that asked for this🤓
@@alexwilliamson9562 it’s more so consistency over the years I’ve seen him use kid gloves when talking about bungie controversy’s or things they’re doing wrong, on top of the fact I swear anytime he complains about something it gets addressed or talked about by bungie within weeks.
@@cgpxae2119because he is the community opinion in bungies eyes, which just negatively affects anyone who has any sort of opposing view
Huh. So that's why i haven't gotten To the Pain frenzy on my chroma rush
I'm curious what all this data means for weapons with massive perk pools; like Trust. This really is a silly little quirk that only could've been properly tested through this much rigorous inquiring outside of a testing grounds they probably use for such formulae.
Also, it felt like an out of body experience hearing my Attrition Orbs/Kinetic Tremors Multimach get mentioned. I thought I was kinda wacky for chasing that roll back in Season 23.
Can we not have another Destiny controversy… FOR FIVE MINUTES?
I dont think it can really be considered a controversy with respect to destiny, its more like a controversy about C++. Funny comment though lol
I’ve gotten 100s of Truthtellers and never Danger Zone. Huh.
30+ Warlords Ruin and no Voltshot sidearm.
And I thought it was only guns with lotsa perks in the pool?
Obviously their algorithm is warped.
I was a IT QA script writer right before retirement. Used statistics a lot along with testers of the app pre release.
Perhaps Bungie scrimped on testing?
Thanks, Datto!