The 10-year Treasury is still very much priced for a 2% inflation world: JPMorgan's Oksana Aronov
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- Oksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy for alternative fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, why she believes it's too soon to say if the Fed will cut or hike rates at their December meeting, the fixed income market, and more.
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Current situation:
1. Stocks are trading like the Fed already cut rates
2. Bonds are trading like rate cuts aren't happening
3. Gold is trading like we are on track for a "soft landing"
4. Oil prices are trading like we are entering a recession
5. Housing markets are trading like nothing is happening
Nothing adds up here.
Have you seen the news about Wall Street landlords being barred from purchasing houses? The Fed made it public news like them and their cohorts won’t still be the first to scoop Treasuries that they manipulate to be more profitable than owning mortgages in the long term.
Yes, it's due to concerns about their impact on housing prices and accessibility for regular buyers. You can be on the winning side if you act fast and sometimes get insider information that can help you beat the market. I don’t believe in tracking broad indexes.
Speaking of housing, I've heard of a fiduciary and estate manager, MonicaMaryStrigle that employs strategies exploiting the spread on mortgage rates and the yield on mortgage-backed securities or collateralized debt obligations to yield substantial profits.
about housing have you heard of monica mary strigle exploiting the spread on mortgage rates and yields on mortgage-backed-securities
I agree the mrkt is manipulated that’s why I never contribute above 5% I try to enjoy the ride while I invest.
Ignore what the Fed says, and pay attention only to what they do. The Fed has a limited toolbox. The microphone and podium are favorite tools of the Fed.
Meanwhile back in reality, if you were to sign-up with a JPMC Estate or Financial Planner, they would use 3% to project inflation as part of their management of your assets. Yet we are all suppose to believe that the FOMC's 2% inflation goal is anything but arbitrary.
But are you buying Tesla at these crazy low prices?
@@free-qe6wx Why at these ultra low prices, they are practically giving away Tsla Shares. Buy Buy Buy you fools
Raise interest rate higher to make homes price affordable for people. Correct your mistake.
And to help my cash get 6% instead of 5:)
Yes let’s raise rates by 1-2% to pay less for a house and then pay $100,000 more over 25 years interest and add $25k on a car loan and cost of everything else goes up. But at least your house goes from 600k to 500k….
They will be for me because i have millions to buy them up with cash instead of paying a 9 pct mortgage. LOL
Difference between 2& 3 is 50% off course is huge
The Fed on its own is still net QE, because of the reverse repo liquidity injection. Then add fiscal QE on top of that. M2 money supply is higher now than it was a year ago. The 10-year right now is only priced for inflation and a tiny amount of growth. There is certainly no premium priced into the 10-year. If we priced in inflation, growth, and premium, the 10-year would have a seven handle on it at the minimum. More likely an eight handle.
Inflation ticked up substantially even while the GDP contracted. If anything, rates need to go up and fiscal policy needs to tighten to match if we're going to get inflation under control. It's going to take de-leveraging the economy and a lot of pain. A soft landing isn't going to happen and never was.
Sharp way to Put it Painted into a Corner ! The Under Shoot Over Shoot Could be Pulling Away ! Look for the Longs to Start Coming in Lower ! Any Pop in the Shorts Reverberating Signaling a Double or Second Sign Wave Inversion Makes the Case for Timing is Everything ! Macro, Optics Still need to be Dealt with Supply Side Havoc Still well into the Cost Overrun ! Cap ,top, or Peak Inflation Culminating from Many Angles is a Flashing Yellow Light !.
Print ...........Spend ..........Crash .......!!!
There are no cuts coming this year, there are no cuts coming next year. Inflation rose continually in the 70s while GDP weakened, didn't end well as the Fed were trapped and forced to raise rates to unprecedented levels.
It's even worse this time. The economy is badly over leveraged.
@marcuscook5145 correct, there was approximately 47 years between the Great Depression and the stagflation event of the mid 1970s. If seasonailty is to play out then adding another 47 years places us bang on 2023 and due for another decade long market melt down, the market currently only being held afloat by massive money printing and government spending heading into election which will only hold for so long.
The early show in CNBC is just horrible. I only watch Bloomberg now.
They forgot the 0. 20 percent. Lol😂
Let’s bring Bill Ackman ,”treasury yield has picked”?
Why can't we get unemployment rate up to 7% this year? They let it happen in 2008. Geez, I wonder why they allowed that to happen then.
A contrarian view on rates.
GDP growth is cooling off quickly; down to 1.6% latest figures. Employment and wage growth will cool off soon too. I think the higher for longer narrative has done the job and yields will move lower again from here.
So it means the dollar is still getting weaker…it’s not about the bond or treasuries, it’s about countries moving away from trading in dollars.
There will be no hike and no cut.
We are not getting 2% inflation for at least 7 years
You read it here first
Fed has no choice but to raise rates. Sad but true.
Tell us something we don't already know, CNN 2.0
Why can't raising taxes where the money flows are reduce inflation?
Good thought but giving our government anymore money is a lost cause.
you don't get elected for raising tax on ppl who votes and the rich lobbies
It would help, but spending still needs to be cut. No two ways about it. You can't feasibly raise taxes high enough to fund current spending levels without facing massive political backlash. It would be far worse than the already heavy backlash from cutting spending in the first place.
Everyone is acting like this 2% target is some magic number when in actuality the USA has experienced 2% inflation very infrequently. In the last 80 years the average inflation rate in the USA is 3.75% and the median is 3%. Even since 1990 the average is 2.7%. Since WW2 the USA has had 2% inflation or less only 26 years. And half of those were directly after the war when the USA was the only country able to supply the world. Another 1/4 of those low inflation years were the 6 years after 2008 when we had a financial crisis and interest rates at 0%. 2% may be the target but we've virtually never been there during "normal" times. Essentially we only experience "target" inflation immediately after times of crisis.
2% is a great aspirational goal. But lets not base our entire monetary and fiscal policy on the 2% target considering we almost never hit it. I think directionality is more important than the target.
Agree directionally is most important. With that being said, we won’t make any progress if the government continues to deficit spend at record rates. That is the root of the problem.
Please STOP talking about cuts. 🙄 why & how are you cutting? You’re fooling no one.
Inflation is Transitory ~ Papa J. Pow!!! 🤡
Worst show on CNBC. Please bring us new hosts that start our mornings in a positive way.
Reality>Blind Positivity
@@Intense_Frictionit's not about good or bad news but about the delivery. The pettiness between joe and Andrew is what throws off every delivery on this terribly performing show.
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It must be embarrassing to be one of these talking people always getting things wrong...expect the FED to cut in June due to weakening economy and if it doesn't it will be a mistake
I agree there's a scenario where the fed might panic and cut rates, however cutting rates would be the mistake. Out of control inflation is infinitely more dangerous than popping the debt bubble. Both are painful, but at least popping the bubble would result in a healthier economy after the initial pain. We're barely up to historically normal interest rates as it is.
@@marcuscook5145 Economy is weakening and being data dependent is no longer an option it will lead to recession if they wait too long...June should be the first and then two more in row to signal and then a pause fro 1-2 then resume cuts
這十幾年期間美國隱瞞投資人資產信息做何解釋至今未能領回一分錢又做何解釋。這是正常運作嗎？