Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman uses 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ tracker on 2024 election
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 เม.ย. 2024
- Presidential election predictor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential race since 1984 using his 13 ‘Keys to the White House’ method, says the 2024 race is too early to call, but that a lot would have to go wrong for one candidate to lose.
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Bring him on again
You disgust me
He makes his prediction in august
I think there is a problem in the system. Has it ever been used to predict a presidentential race between a former president and an incumbent?
Only if the former president has to wear diapers because he poos his pants due to years of drug addiction and can’t stay awake and puts on orange makeup and paid hush money to a porn star.
Nope, it hasn't. Just like 2000, this is a very unique election that Lichtman could get wrong.
The mistake would be to change the keys. There's never been an election where a party candidate is on trial during the campaign, but that isn't a new key either. The keys should never be changed to reflect different circumstances; that would compromise their reliability.
yeah i don't think he was around for grover cleveland 😭
elementary...Allan said he did not make the prediction yet...all the keys in the hand of his 6th grader....
CornPop 2024
Can’t wait to see it !
2:16, 3:29
6 of lichtmans keys have fallen. only incumbency is locked down. the other 7 depend on who you ask.
Not according to him.
Not a 40 year winning streak if you make a prediction every 4 years.
So how long of a winning streak is it
@groggerpingas Tens year winning streak if you only count the presidential election years 1980 through 2020 (*He claims he got 2000 correct, but it was a stolen election).
@@groggerpingasBro I know you can divide 40 by four 😂
@@TheJoeschmoe777 So you're saying it's a 10 year winning streak? Lol
😂😂 find a better predictor, if u doubt Lichtman...
Don't go by what this dude says or the polls. Some of the elections were easy to predict anyway. Just remember to vote on Tuesday 05 NOV for the candidate you choose.
“Where do “we”, the democrats stand right now.
There are pied pipped humans parading for what they do not know? Once an authoritative institution of pinnacle accolades certifies questionable actualizations over socially shocking continuances as format for fully levity's application. And it's resolution includes final erasures not to be petitioned. A basic aptitude of social acceptability becomes a given agreed upon uptake.
The sellout against Penn State Universities' long time escalated and revered Football Coach.
Told me long ago that tilting against full fledged correct perceptions was embraced in our highest institutions.
That time bracket till now brings a capture of opposing look ahead distance perhaps preconceived and commencement of mission segment.
I knew then. Wholesome centered standing of continuance was nit picked and targeted for attention against itself and further.
Penalty flag. Too many players on the field.
Well, several observations here:
1) I don't know who's going to win in November. I wouldn't place a bet. Biden might be the only Democrat that Trump can beat. Trump might be the only Republican that Biden can beat. Both candidates are extremely unpopular, and both parties made stupid decisions to lead with their weakest candidates. Either of them might snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
2) That having been said, I don't think it's a huge deal to have predicted so many elections correctly. A lot of them were pretty obvious, right? Was there any doubt that Reagan would win re-election? Was there any doubt that Clinton would be re-elected? Was there any doubt that Obama would be elected?
3) He's having it both ways, isn't he? He predicted that Gore would beat Bush, but he doesn't count that as being "wrong" since Gore won the popular vote. On the other hand, he takes credit for predicting that Trump would win in 2016 even though Trump LOST the popular vote. This is creative accounting.
4) This guy epitomizes "ivory tower". He's staring at his navel while contemplating metrics. It really does seem as though there are things happening on the street and in the world which don't make it into his metrics so he isn't aware of them. And he can be as disdainful as he likes about the polls. They are what they are, but historically, Trump has run AHEAD of them.
5) The Biden White House and the Democrats don't seem to be acting as though this was almost in the bag for Biden. "Biden isn't charismatic; he isn't JFK or FDR." Oh, I see. Isn't it just barely possible that Biden has issues that are more considerably deep-seated than just a lack of charisma? How important is "charisma" anyway? JFK actually got less than 50% of the popular vote and barely won election. Trump has a certain amount of charisma and it has never made him popular with the country as a whole. He has deep-seated issues of his own. He still lost to Biden in 2020. Two unpopular candidates. Mr. Lichtman is navel gazing.
6) I don't know who's going to win in November. I wouldn't place a bet.
Trump beaten unbeatable Hillary Clinton.. The so called madam president..
You shouldn't count him out imo.
1) The reason why both parties are going with the respective candidates is they're the "safe" options, it's risky for the Dems to lead with a non incumbent candidate and for the GOP to go with someone else while Trump, a former president and still highly popular within the GOP is still highly active.
2) He did correctly predict 2016 when the pundits and polls predicted Clinton.
3) You can call him out for the inconsistency, but then would you say he predicted 2000 correctly or 2016 correctly when the rest of the media got both of them wrong?
4) His metrics take into account incumbency, election performance, the economy, foreign policy, social unrest, scandals, and charisma. You can point to other metrics that should be taken into account if you want, however those keys do provide a good representation of election performance.
5) Charisma as Lichtman defines means "a candidate with an extraordinarily persuasive or dynamic personality that gives him or her very board appeal." He references FDR, JFK, and Reagan. Donald Trump doesn't count because while he had appeal, it was only with his own side it wasn't broad.
Point is Lichtman's metrics are flawed just like every other poll or pundit but shouldn't be counted out considering he has correctly predicted all but one of the elections and his metrics are reflective on voters top issues.
@@rohanb3402 1) Few people like either Trump or Biden. So they're not the "safe" options.
2) Already addressed. Creative accounting.
3) The bottom line is that he wants credit for both instances. Creative accounting.
4) Which of these factors works for Biden? He seems to think all of them do. Clearly, he's insulated from the real world.
5) Surely, both candidates have issues with their persona and the way in which they're perceived by the public other than the presence or absence of "charisma". But those issues are not on the list of factors or bullet points considered by this analyst.
6) Ridiculous, for the reasons that I mentioned earlier.
@@rohanb3402 couldn’t have said it better
He changed his way of determining presidency after Gore, he used to base of Popular vote for winning presidency and changed it, he did get Trump right, only reason he mainly lost Gore was like couple thousand people difference in Florida, I think doubting a source that will most likely be right again for having a track record like this is foolish and ignorant.
a lot has already gone wrong
For Trump. Mostly in courtrooms and grand juries and prosecutors across America.
@@deucebollardsThe cases against him are falling apart. When he's convicted then we can talk.
@@TheJoeschmoe777thats delusional to say that
@@Vogtandom I'm no Trump supporter, but I mean just the Supreme Court hearing his case for presidential immunity is a win for him.
@@Redacted_Ruler not really because nothing has happened
Alan says Biden has the 🗝️🗝️🗝️ keys. He is always right.
Not yet Biden has most of what he needs he has the economy long and short the incumbency No scandal the uncontested primary he has policy changes and he’s going up against a weak candidate. He has 7 out of 13 keys but the midterms and the fact that he’s not inspiring goes against him that’s 2 keys against. But we have to wait and see how foreign policy will unfold because that’s extremely fluid at the moment we have to wait and see how much the 3rd party candidates will affect the election and we have to see if the Palestinian protest create social unrest. If all of those go against Biden he’s out but if Biden can just shift on Israel or has a success in Ukraine or something than he’s holding on. Likely given the results of an attempted coup Biden will be President in January.
I'd like to ask him if he would like to put his money where his mouth is.
If thats the case then im not voting
@@joelrobert4053
Well if you're a magaturd, which I suspect you are, you shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway!
You're a traitor just like trump!
@@joelrobert4053 why be that way?
You mean a lot more would have to go wrong. The incumbent has presided over the worst economy in 40 years, and the challenger is facing four felony trials. Neither of them should have a prayer of winning. (Edited to add): In the unlikely event that either candidate steps aside or is forced out, his party would win the election right there.
😂😂😂 The U.S. has the strongest economy in the world right now!
Do some research before you post complete nonsense.
You wouldn't appear to be a dummy then! 👍
We had a recession under Trump. How could Biden be worse when we’re not even close to a recession?
Obviously you are a youngster if you think this economy is worse than the 80s. "Statistically speaking, it is quite clear that the early 1980s recession was extremely severe. Unemployment, interest rates, and inflation during that period were much higher than today. Wages were eroding and lots of people were living on EI. This period was undoubtedly a period of crisis and suffering. Today's economic circumstances are significantly better than they were during the recession."
@@deucebollards I said the worst in 40 years, meaning the worst since then.
#2024Elections: A reminder to voters 🗳️ of what’s at stake in this upcoming election 🗳️ for one The Future of America 🇺🇸 and Next Generation’s Future are on the line. Our Freedoms are on the line. We need new Leadership. A President that will have policies that will help us.
Trump's policies did not help me. Biden's policies did.
@@pullpulse123 absolute false. Bidenomics is hurting average Americans
@@pullpulse123 Sleepy Joe is by far the worst illegitimate President
@@pullpulse123 pathetic take! Sleepy Joe is ruining our lives financially
Alternate reality ?
He’s lost all his keys
Which ones?
@@pullpulse123 all of them
@@mstone9364 he can’t lose the challenger charisma key or the incumbent key, so I’m not sure what you mean
@@pullpulse123Don’t feed the troll. Too many morons on here.
Well I’m moving to Canada 🇨🇦
U can move nw wt are y waiting for
Bye Felicia
Don’t. Look at trudeau
@@dew9103 Trudeau on his worst days is leaps and bounds better than the Trump crime family. He shouldn’t legally be allowed to run.
please do 🙏🙏🙏
*10 True Keys*
1)No primary contest
2)Incumbent seeking re-election
3)No 3rd Party
4)Strong short-term economy
5)Strong long-term economy
6)Major policy change
7)No social unrest
8)No major scandal
9)No major foreign / military failure
10)Uncharismatic challenger
*3 False Keys*
1)Midterm gains
2)Major foreign / military success
3)Charismatic incumbent
That assessment looks likely at this stage, given where the Keys stand.
Those 4 keys are obviously going to fall. Duh. Trump is going to win this puppy.
No 3rd party, no social unrest, and no major military failure are false in my opinion.
@@ninjahotdog9036 wildly false, I actually see no path to 270 for joe biden. None. best case. 250ish
@@samsmith8415 yea those 3 keys being false means Trump wins bc 6 false keys in total means white house is won by opposite party
I think Trump is going to win based on some keys observations. In 2020 more people voted for Trump than for Obama in 2012. Those people are probably still going to vote for Trump. People voted for Biden in 2020 because they didn’t want Trump not because they had much enthusiasm for Biden. Biden has lost support to Arabic Americans, Jewish Americans and young voters. That’s a big enough group of people to sit out in the key states on election day to make the difference.
The 2024 race may well be a lot closer than polls predict but there isn’t much enthusiasm for Biden and in much a closer race, Trump would probably still have the edge over Biden as he outperformed the poll predictions in the 2020 election.
Right, but what do the keys say?
@@pullpulse123 How Keynesian of you.
The keys say “Open sesame!”
There are probably infinite variables deciding the presidency but we’ll just have to see whether Allan is right again.
Also worth noting that in the British 2024 local elections muslims did not vote for the social democratic candidate (Starmer) and history shows these trends tend to spill out into other countries. The chances are that muslims probably won’t put an X in the Biden box just to stop Trump.
@@india2443that’s a good pun I’ll give you that.
How ironic that the key to America's freedom is dependent upon how many of us DON'T vote. If Trump is to be taken at his word (always a dubious notion) he has promised that we will continue exercising our freedom that way.
Quote Of The Day: America 🇺🇸 we definitely need change in leadership. We can’t continue to live under these conditions thanks to Bidenomics which is hurting the economy. Middle and Poor Class Americans 🇺🇸 can barely make ends meet.
Thanks to Trump's dereliction of duty in the early stages of Covid 19's attack on America, nearly 2 million Americans no longer have to worry about continuing to live. Maybe a second term will give him some ideas for an encore performance.
#2024Elections: The Future Of America 🇺🇸 and The Next Generation’s Future are at stake which is why need the best of the best candidate who can lead us into the promising Future that America 🇺🇸 can achieve and deliver. We need a change in leadership with eyes towards the future
If they ditched Biden, Trump would win. The keys don't reflect strength of the leader except for the specific key it relates to.
@@corneliusmaze-eye2459 Sleepy Joe is ruining this country and if you’re a concern American like I am then you would want to do something about that and clearly I’m willing to do anything to make sure Sleepy Joe doesn’t get re-elected to do more damage to the country that I love which is America
Vote Blue always.
Sheep
@@udugampolage6696 Clown.
Is that not a problem? You people vote solely on color and not by policy or how well the president does with the country.
@@udugampolage6696rich coming from the projectionist party. 😂
Uh, no.
Vote Blue!
wake up he's not only like on his death bed but 5 wars have popped up ever since he became President and inflation is through the roof vote Trump red if you don't want to die in world war 3 vote Biden if you want world war 3 to start it's that simple.
Chaina future very dangars country definitely this is real Today
Peter Sonski 2024 :)
RFK JR is the only mentally competent candidate.
😂
Only if you're stupid enough to vote for him!
LOL
@richardhowe, 👈🤪
@@rukin4003 Who else is mentally competent?
Allan Lichtmen if a fraud. When he is right he takes credit, when he is wrong he says “i was actually right because of the popular vote”. By using excuses like that he is always right.
prove?
Please do your research
He’s gotten it correct every time except for the Gore vote, (back before 2000 the last time a candidate had won without the popular vote was 1876) and he actually altered his algorithm afterwards ro make sure such a situation wouldn’t occur again.
2000 was an unusual election though. The voting machines in Florida didn't work properly which was a bit of a fluke that cost Al Gore the election.
@@corneliusmaze-eye2459 a relative of mine voted in that election in that state and she said something had gone wrong and she was worried her vote had gone to Bush instead of Gore, she started freaking out when she saw others had the same problem
💙💙💙💙2024
wake up he's not only like on his death bed but 5 wars have popped up ever since he became President and inflation is through the roof vote Trump red if you don't want to die in world war 3 vote Biden if you want world war 3 to start it's that simple.
Take a look at your heart Is a heart Ussually blue? No a human heart is red ❤️ if you vote for Biden you are voting for sad heart emojis vote for the red heart of love ❤️
@@shadowbaconwarrior5604 🔵🔵🔵🔵➿➿2024
I’m gonna vote blue but I want Biden to work for it because he’s so centrist and lukewarm.
wake up he's not only like on his death bed but 5 wars have popped up ever since he became President and inflation is through the roof vote Trump red if you don't want to die in world war 3 vote Biden if you want world war 3 to start it's that simple.
@@shadowbaconwarrior5604nah nah inflation is cooling down and america hasn’t entered any new wars so we good
He's really not that centrist. It's just that the pathetic GOP will veto any of his bills because their whole agenda is to go against whatever the democrats want.
@@pullpulse123 are you kidding me?
What kind of fantasy world are you living in?
War Between Russia and Ukraine started while Biden is President
War between Pakistan and Israel while Biden is president
And now it's suspected that Ukraine has enough weapons that is can also attack the US
Next China and Russia are Preparing for World war 3
And inflation is through the roof,
When trump was president a Slab of good meat Costed 8$ that slab of meat during bidens presidency is now 48$
And we have never been closer to world war 3
He wouldn’t have to negotiate so hard if the house wasn’t against him. It’ll have to be a blue wave.
vote blue 🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🧢🐳🐳🐳🐳
Lol, u are taking america from worse to disaster
Biden 2024 💙🇺🇸
wake up he's not only like on his death bed but 5 wars have popped up ever since he became President and inflation is through the roof vote Trump red if you don't want to die in world war 3 vote Biden if you want world war 3 to start it's that simple.
@@johnwi-l_l-iamsf3763 I was way worse off during Trump's presidency than I am now. Biden 2024.
They’re so desperate that they’re relying on this professor.
Uhhh he definitely has a lot of credibility loll
dude quite literally has a more accurate prediction than most pollsters.
I would rely more on his high credibility than yours
@Jerry Jr,
Well what does that say about you and voting for a coward and traitor like trump!?
You will never learn anything about him!
Except "shut up boy! And give me your damn money!"
Biden's not lukewarm. Biden has done a excellent job considering the Trump 💩 show that was left to sort out. VOTE BLUE!!! 💙💙💙
Biden 2024💙🇺🇸
Biden ALL the way! Trump is an absolute train wreck
wake up he's not only like on his death bed but 5 wars have popped up ever since he became President and inflation is through the roof vote Trump red if you don't want to die in world war 3 vote Biden if you want world war 3 to start it's that simple.
@@pullpulse123 I'd Rather Free country with Trump than the corrupt Democrats who created issues like Inflation high War chances and if anyone is a Dictator it's Biden
Have you been under a rock the last three years
@@user-bl3vk8qc6h I am much better off now than from 2017-20. Biden all the way.
Trump all the way Biden is Worse than a Train Wreck
Biden is the living embodiment of Dementia pretty soon he won't even know his own name, Is this the kind of man you want running?
And now the most recent event Biden is kicking your children out of schools and replacing them with immigrants forcing your children to be left with no education.
I hope he predicts Biden … and Biden loses …
Trust me, no one would be interested in that outcome more than Allan Lickman. He's a social-political scientist, he likes to test his theories.
Lame
#2024Elections: According to mostly all the polls it basically suggests that we the American 🇺🇸 People have spoken and we’re sick and tired of @POTUS Sleepy 😴 Joe and his horrible policies affecting all of us. Both Sleepy 😴 Joe’s Foreign and Economic policies are a disaster.
Vote blue
@@shitpostingcrusader7966 you’re joking right? Voting blue means complete lawlessness across the country and lack of respect towards law enforcement
Trump 2024
Biden 2024 💙🇺🇸
@@murdacloak406 Are you crazy? Sleepy Joe the guy who’s single handily ruining America that’s the guy you’re voting for? Sleepy Joe is failing America
We think that the republican ticket will be pence/romney in 2024!
MAGA
he literally wants to deport your ass 🤣
FJB