Poker Math: Using the 2x4 method to convert from outs to percentages
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2024
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This is a snippet from the PokerNerve Road to Success Course where Acesup teaches an easy method for calculating the percentage of hitting a draw in NLH poker.
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Thank you. Can you explain why you use the x2 and x4? The reason and formula please.
Thanks M8, it’s a great refresher. 👍
watching you at the final table in 109 bounty builder right now! GL
The best video on this strategy
Very nice. Quick and easy to understand.
Thanks i needed this
@2:04 If you say the opponent has a small pocket pair, i would say you have 16 outs, 4 queens, 3 Aces, 3 Kings, 3 jacks and 3 Ts
The ability to calculate pot odds is highly stressed, but in No-Limit (NL) poker, situations where you can make a favorable call based on these odds are few and far between.
Whats the most outs you can have? A flush draw with open ended plus 2 overs? So 21 ?
Flop is 776 with two clubs. You have 98 clubs. Assuming the opponent is on an under pair you have 24 outs since if another six comes it counterfeits his underpair. On the turn you could have 27 outs if another overcard comes since if it pairs on the river it also counterfeits his underpair.
This is fuckin brilliant
The second example hand also has a possible straight. How many outs would this add? Would I take 4 Q and 4 T and divide by 2 for 11 total outs?
No. What you're talking about are called 'implied odds'. The 4-2 rule simply calculates your odds of immediately improving in a hand. In that second example, if the turn is a non-heart Queen, then your hand hasn't improved at all (still A high), but your odds to the river have improved from just the 9 flush outs to join the four 10 outs (plus the 6 remaining aces and kings), bringing you to 18 total outs (don't count the 10H twice!).
So, to put it simply, since a queen or a ten would NOT immediately improve your hand on the turn, they don't get factored in at this stage.
@@kylerother3146 very instructive, thank you
whats your email? I have some sick poker hands from the weekend to you may want to feature on your site.!
Have I misunderstood?
With 8 outs and 47 cards left in the deck, that's 17% not 32%...?
When do you calculate these?
On the flop.
okay imagine this heads up
one player has King of Hearts and King of Clubs
i have 87 Diamonds
flop is 5 (diamond) 6(diamond) and 8 (heart)
computer tells me i have 64% chance of winning with 20 outs
which should be 20x4=80
from 8 to 20 the difference is 12
so 80-12=68%
but computer says its 64%
because of some Tie probablities
how does it calculate the tie possibilities
also in the same example-if player with kings has-KIng of diamonds
my outs become 19-
so same will apply 19x4=72
difference being 72-11
63%
but computer says its 61%
i dont get the Tie thing
i mean i can visualise what can happen but i dont know how does it calculate it
If you’re asking how you calculate tie odds effectively, you don’t. The computer does it by simulating every possible turn and river combination.
I need to know how to calculate percentage of WINNING a hand based on number of players still in
There are a lot of other factors involved than just the number of players involved (eg. opponents range)
@@taf8903 I know but I'm trying to make a script and am trying to think of a formula
@@aidenw6862there is no single formula that will be accurate unless you know the definitive range and pattern tendency’s of your opponents.
@@aidenw6862so after a year did you find out your formula
I’d rather play in person. Online uses bots and superbots
Had to watch it multiple time to follow along. Maybe use a better presentation? 😂😂😂
Calculating without explaining is difficult to follow. Calculated:
9 outs on 47 (52 -3 -2) remaing cards on flop= 19% to turn
missed? 9 outs on 46 remaining cards on turn = 19,5% to river
19% + 19,5% = 38,5% 😁
According to you it should be 35%. That could be right if you explained that this 3,5% reduction is because the villain hit the nuts. But how do we know he hits it?
And calculating pot odds two steps ahead is dangerous. What if the villlain raises the turn, after we missed???
😉.
.
Hey what’s the calculation for the 4th poker flop at 4:06
Your calculations are incorrect. You cannot add probabilities like that.
These calculations are based on your own perspective on the game. You are unaware of what the villain will have, you will never know until the showdown. Therefore we use maths with numbers and probabilities that we can confirm are 100%. The OP could have many different hands with many different ranges, bet sizing is also a big thing to understand too, so that you can begin to gain a proper feel for what people are playing in their hand. Instead of thinking, maybe they have A,Ko or something, you could be trying to understand their play style, what ranges would the OP be betting for? What could the OP have tried to play, possibly failed, and now is trying to pull a bluff. All reads are possible at the tables, its just weather or not you can read their plays. Some people online play crazy, Live poker will always be profitable as long as you have your study down. Hope this helped, and happy hunting at the tables, GL and HF
@@michaelberkery7081 It's 13 hearts minus 3 = 10 outs × 4 = 40% - 2% = 38% chance of hitting the flush on the turn
Online poker is a rip off. Cheaters
I agree
This doesn't explain a thing 👎👎👎👎👎👎👎 next time explain it better