Why Our Politics Are Stuck In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ย. 2023
- We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite consternation about President Biden’s age and electability, he has no serious primary challengers.
More than a year out from the presidential election, it seems like the writing is on the wall, that electoral politics are frozen in place, and few people are happy about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck to help make sense of how we got here.
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0:25: 🎙 The 538 Politics podcast discusses the current state of electoral politics and the lack of serious challengers to Trump and Biden in the primaries, with Americans feeling dissatisfied overall.
6:32: 🔑 The video discusses the shift in political debates from New Deal issues to identity-inflected issues after 2016.
26:41: 🗣 The candidates in an election are important, but they come with constraints relative to their opponents.
14:03: 📰 The focus on identity politics is unlikely to end with Trump's departure from politics.
19:38: 💼 Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's different approaches to the global financial crisis and Trump's impact on the narrative.
32:53: 🔀 Trump has moderated his stance on abortion, which could potentially change support for him in the primary or general election.
38:44: 📚 The video discusses the possibility of Joe Biden adopting a similar position as Republicans on border security to appeal to marginal voters.
45:23: 🗣 The 2024 presidential contest is expected to be different from 2020, making it harder for candidates to persuade voters to change their opinions.
51:58: 🗣 Internal party struggles and competitions exist within both the Democratic and Republican parties, shaping their ideologies and power dynamics.
57:44: 💬 Politics is about fighting over the path to the outcome, whether it's within the same party or different parties.
1:03:57: ❗ The current political landscape in the US is influenced by partisan balance, incumbency, and murky economic context.
Recap by Tammy AI
That was such a false equivalency about who’s fault calcification is. Sure, there are two sides to EVERY conflict, doesn’t mean they are both equally responsible. It only takes one side to start a fight. This is the same kind of reasoning that punishes students for defending themselves when a bully physically attacks them.
Let me guess, without knowing your party, the bad guys just so happen to be the other party, yeah?
To say the fireman and arsonist are just equal but opposite sides of the same thing, and blaming the arsonist as causing the problem is just playing politics is the ultimate in gaslighting.
I agree about the issue of false equivalency. The other issue I'm hearing is that she makes it sound like Trump came along, and all of a sudden we're all talking about identity politics when we weren't before, which is a complete misrepresentation. Identity politics has been a driving force of partisanship for decades. What was different about Trump wasn't about identity politics, it was about violation of norms. Suddenly you could make fun of someone with disabilities, call Mexicans rapists, spread blatant lies and conspiracy theories, and still be elected president. That's why we're stuck in 2016, and that's why the parties feel so far apart. It's because everyone is so angry that you can't even have a polite conversation with the other side anymore.
@@RehenNodrog What conspiracy theories has the Orange Man spread, though? The only one is Stop the Steal, which, given the previous four years of his political life, I can totally understand. Everything else, though, he's been bang on the money. COVID origin, Russiagate, Ukraine investigations. He has exposed the Deep State like no other.
@@freedem41 It all needs to be burnt to the ground. One man's arsonist is another man's iconoclast. In your analogy, it's Dems and liberals who are the "firemen" of Fahrenheit 451.
They're not equally experienced. Biden has decades of political experience. Trump has four years experience. Just enough to have learned how to do more damage.
You cannot be this ignorant. I'm a lifelong Democrat and I voted to get Trump out of office and celebrated when he left. But Biden has been a utter disaster. World leaders see him as weak and are able to bully him. The world is at war bc of how weak Biden is. I have realized that Trump was feared to the point that no World leader would even think of doing something crazy. I never thought I would want Trump back but I do. A lot of people are making this realization.
Nothing about my life is like 2016.
40% won't move on and the other 60% in both parties can back another candidate. ∴ Therefore we are stuck until more of the 40% dies. This has happened before.
That's what they want you to believe. You don't have to believe it. The truth of the matter is that at least 40 percent, probably more by now, are registered as Independents, and I would say at least half of them are left leaning Independents that are not happy with the neoliberalism and the establishment politicians that represent the corporate elite. About 32 percent are Republicans, and something like 27 percent are registered Democrat. 33 of the state primary elections are holding some of an open primary -- meaning that either there will be some form of cross-party-voting or the allowing of Independent voters participating in voting on which ever ballot they choose, and I believe there are few states that allow Independent voters to vote for any candidate they choose even though it may be cross party -- which I view as extremely healthy for a supposed democratic nation to do.
And it made that country great again.
Do a lot of folk on the left care about culture war issues? It does seem that a lot of Dems I meet share the "meh" attitude towards those issues, while being focused on more material matters!
Clue: Cash is speech and corporations are people. Discussing ANYTHING else is rubbish.
35:00 I do disagree with the assertion that Trump wouldn't bring up Biden's age and mental state. He already brings it up regularly, with the general claim that Biden is senile for his age, while Trump sees himself as sharp-witted for his age.
Yeah, she's really trying to not blame either side here, when Trump is pretty objectively a cruel bastard braying to a crowd of Neo Nazis
@@JowanCollier Well, the truth can hurt sometimes i guess. Sounds like you lead a pretty sheltered life if you think it is bad to say someone who has dementia is old and senile. I would rather have Trump back with his mean tweets that Biden in office selling our foreign policy along with his son's paintings.
Things have already changed in ways I intensely dislike and it's feeling like it might get a lot worse. At least Biden is a better President than I expected. Unfortunately Dems haven't put things back in place. At least for now we have an experienced President with wisdom and empathy.
Trump set the bar so low lol
Agreed. That being said my car would look like a decent and compassionate president in comparison to Trump. ( Biden is a good president though all things considered )
Biden is a good President? How deranged do you have to be to actually believe that. The world is on fire bc no world leader respects Biden. They know he is weak and are starting wars bc of it. They were scared of Trump which is why the world was so peaceful while he was president.
Its not about sides its about good and evil, and if you can't tell the difference between them, you are part of the problem.
The candidates don’t matter in a two party system with clear differences between the parties.
I've added the phrase "pissed off" (or some variation of it) in my classes when explaining some material as a deliberate attempt to humanize me and/or what I'm lecturing on. I don't have any Idea it's working, but I'm not about to take it any further. 😅
You made the point that the 2020 election had 150M people vote but was decided by less than 50K voters in three states. However, you made the mistake of assuming that those decisive voters were moderates -- they were not. The election in 2020 and the election in 2016 were both determined by turnout of base voters in these close states. The favors a candidate that can increase turnout and thus favors Trump over Biden.
Not really. The data showed that Trump turned out more voters against him than for him. That's why he lost.
Remember folks, these are the same people who constantly complained about identity politics in 2016.
I am sure I heard Galen say that intra-party conflicts are more "intrasting" 😂 right around 1 hr.
Women, LGBTQ, black Americans, the working poor…identity? or just the entire US population
Great show. Ha my language students love a bit of spicy talk in my class.
Good show. Fascinatingly insights. A minor disagreement w Prof V. during discussion on age factor of President she said neither President nor 45 had an advantage. Yet, 45 continues to hammer President's age. Mainstream media reports. 45's approach is to create a "separate reality" that feeds base and gets his message out; "Biden is old and I'm not"
That is 45's approach. He got it straight from Mein Kamph. "Lie until it becomes the truth". And now half our country is suffering from mass psychosis.
Instead of using focus groups to find the most palatable candidate, how about pushing for better economic policies that don't result in massive inflation? Real wages have stagnated.
Even beyond the abortion issues as vital as those are, the open planning for a viscous autocracy and the end of democratic government is the big divide, yet I heard not one word on that from this program. Democrats have been talking about policies to make folks lives better and following through with actual progress, while Republicans have been gaslighting their base twisting truly awful goals to somehow be a good thing.
Ok
You have such a low resolution take
@@darklelouchg8505 Basic is not "low resolution" but the foundation from which everything else can be derived. It is also the foundation point where gaslighting cannot go. Either leadership is a responsibility or a privilege. There is certainly a spectrum when applied to individuals and their amount of honor they bring to the position, but both extremes are not equal and there can be no pretending that one is the other.
What are their “awful goals”?
@@officialfumofeltingchannel1490 answered but not showing. Would take far more room than is available here, but widely available.
Great interview!
The only point I would prob be that the calcification is coming from the right given the catalyst was Trump himself. The positions on the left have not changed so much. If anything the progressives and the business left have become more pragmatic.
So what does all this say about that 1 of 10 voters who believe there isn't a difference between the two major parties?
theyr'e politically ignorant
I watch both fat right and far left media and the far left media talks FAR MORE about identity politics. Not even close.
Lmaoooooo I guarantee you think Clinton News network is far left
@@michaelsurratt1864 You are correct, it is far left. So is MSNBC, so is Fivethirtyeight! Quite often, far left media tries to disguise itself as 'down the middle' but it is quite dishonest.
@@markaisenberg6641 There's nothing partisan about 538 lol. And I love how you convienetly leave out NewsMax, Fox News, OAN, Daily Wire, Epoch Times, and the list goes on and on. There's far more right wing media out there than "left wing"
@@michaelsurratt1864 CNN isn't even close to "far left" lol. They're just corporatist.
@@charlesmiv3842 Except for Fox News, everything you mentioned is tiny compared to the MSM. And yes, fivethirtyeight is extremely biased, it’s sad that you are so brainwashed as to not see it.
brilliant analysis
Just ignoring the horrific use of polling this past week from ABC/Post?
Horrific? Now it's 4 months later and every poll and betting odds has him not only winning in November but Trump is favored to win the popular vote. This same time before 2020 election had Biden up in every poll by 7-12 points. Now 4 years later Trump is up by 2-5 points. Trump will easily win.
Having equalized numbers of voters in each party is a good thing if and only if both parties cooperate in all ways. The serious issue now is the polarization is dominated by the extremes of each (mostly the extreme in the Republican Party). The good about the Democratic Party is the Party still has a majority of it in the center while the majority in the Republican Party are in the far right or at least are bowing to the far right in all ways. Seems like there are 2 solutions for voters in a positive way forward: 1) vote for a 3rd centrist Party that will address the majority of the Country's issues, or 2) the Republican Party voters need to vote out all that maintain the far right extremes that dominate the Party.
Really appreciate the insightful and intelligent conversation here. Well done.
I would like to echo Prof. Vavreck's final sentiment, about praising 538 in getting people engaged in the political process over the past _fifteen_ years. Simultaneously, making clear that there are important and firm rules to these political competitions, while also constantly reemphasizing that it's a roll of the dice to predict what that many folks' decisions will be on one Tuesday in November. (Including, of course, whether to vote at all!) Learning about their methods and processes has been a great instruction to me over that same time, thank you 😊
In 2024. The choice is democracy in Biden or fascism in Trump
Trump is basically a Smells Like Teen Spirit moment for US politics. Will rock music (or politics) ever be the same again? No.
“It’s the economy, stupid!” -Bill Clinton campaign
You say that most of the differences and changes have come from 2016 and Donald trump, however the Obama change that came was also Donald trump and his birther-ism.
Our politics are stuck in the 1990s.
At first glance I thought you wrote “Our politicians are stuck in the 1900‘s”, which actually makes more sense.
Fivey, no!!!!
"No serious primary challengers"? No thats a wrap. Buh-bye
Yeah, Trump won't harp on Biden's specific age, he'll just call him "Sleepy Joe" a million times.
And?
@@dannyarcher6370and so I agree more with Galen
This is the best episode of 538 podcast out of all the one I watched.
Biden and Trump are the same damn age, THANK you for pointing that out Lynn. Gotta love how Galen had to interject to protect the rehabilitation of Trump by ABC and others with "but no, Biden old". Trump is just as old, and if he were to win he would (for the SECOND time) claim the title for 'the oldest president we've ever had'.
Maybe his age isn't focused on so much because it doesn't even crack the top 10 reasons why he's a terrible candidate: they'll never be able to walk back J6 - easily one of the most despicable and heinous acts from any president ever. He's facing 91 felony charges - of which he'll almost certainly be convicted of a large number of those (Hunter Biden is not a neutralizing force as there is no evidence of Joe Biden's involvement, and he's also NOT IN THE ADMINISTRATION). They'll never be able to walk back overturning Roe - which only happened because of Trump (who now wants to act like he can backtrack and 'negotiate with the Dems'). The list goes on, and on, and on.
How delusional do you gotta be to think the media is pro-Trump lol
Trump is four years younger. Really the reason people have issues with Bidens age is the fact he acts like a dementia patient. FYI I am not a fan of Trump but telling people to "Go peacefully protests at the capitol" doesn't seem that despicable to me. Another thing Dems is general should get over is Jan 6th. The majority of Americans don't care about it.
Biden is not only old but acts like it , this talking point"but trump is also old " falls flat because compared to biden he looks functional
Trump is the same age Biden was four years ago. The difference is, Biden's age was already showing. Are you that myopic?
I'm literally less than 1 minute into the video and you are being "too much of a c***" to even finish the video. Thanks "autoplay"... SMH... FML...
Trump For Prison 2024!
Dementia Biden 2024!
Maybe so but like Mandela he will rise
Least totalitarian democrat
Trump 2024 🇺🇸🇺🇸
Lacks insight. Voters are not down on the Biden - Trump rematch. They're down because MAGA Republicans and Trump are not gone already.
Dems and Reps (the voters, not the politicians) want the same thing: End the corruption
lol no. GOPs want to coronate the corruption.
I would like to go back to New Deal era politics. I don't like what's going on now at all. It scares me. Politics should be about policy, not identity. If this continues too long is it going to come down to the identity of each individual American having to be addressed?
I mean the culture war was coming either way with social media and all. Plus Trump 2016 had economics in the cards wanting to talk about renegotiating trade deals , cutting regulations, etc. Seems like yall are missing the real culprit which is social media. 🤔
Someone really wants more social media censorship huh
his trade deals did nothing but hurt the middle class, and cutting regulations did nothing but help the already wealthy.
Congratulations!! I abhor politics, but your discussion today kept me calm & interested through the entire time! Very intelligent, mature, balanced, non emotional sharing of facts & ideas. Amazingly y9u both came through to me to be unbiased for/against either party or individual candidate. Ty. So glad I happened upon your show today!
I don't think claiming "Biden doesn't have any primary challengers" is very intelligent. He has two challengers. One polls at 12% and the other at 19%. Biden is at 34%. Just imagine how much better those challengers would be doing if there wasn't a widespread blackout and smear campaign against them. Reporting with huge omissions is not intelligent reporting. And here they treat Nikki Haley like a serious candidate, with just 5% vs Trump's 39%. How moronic and undemocratic.
What a lovely erudite interview.
Something lost on the discussion of why young men are trending right is the influx of right-wing podcasters/influencers like Joe Rogan, Ben Shapiro, and even Andrew Tate who are all trying to appeal to young men, telling them that their masculinity and their status of power within their family and society at large is at stake.
Joe Rogan and Tate? 100%. Shapiro is too sissified to resonate with young men tho
Weird editing in this video.
Fantastic episode! She’s a great guest!
Yeah, all of a sudden I want to study political science at UCLA....
Good interview, Galen. We are very calcified in our party orientation but to decalcify we need to have a different focus. That is usually a war, an epidemic, or a financial crisis. I just don't see that happening. The only other thing that matters is to reorient focus on candidate disparity. And for that to happen we need two different presidential candidates. Like Scott or Haley v Newsome or Whitmer. Both sides with younger and more appealing Gen X and Millenial candidates,
Skip Gen X
Enjoyed the interview very much! One quibble I have, though -- she said Trump gained a lot of GOP support due to their agreement with his policy positions. I think Trump espoused a lot of non-doctrinaire positions. A lot of folks seemed to like his pugnaciousness over other reasons.
Also, I'd love to see a study of how many voters in 2016 weren't voting FOR a candidate, but voting AGAINST the other. A lot of folks despised Hillary & would never support her. Others understood Trump's lack of character and bad decision-making record and refused to vote for him. I wonder how much the negative votes determined the outcome...
Nope, Americans's are not down on a rematch, most want Trump to win, so basically you're an opinion page, not facts. Good to know!
It's always beta-males...
Very short sighted take that do not consider the wider global undercurrents of distrust in democratic institutions. Trump is a symptom not a cause, terribly reductionist perspective that seems more concerned with promoting itself than presenting dialogue. Where is the off ramp, where is the invitation to substantive discourse?
Absolutely wild that the candidate who’s literally just running to save his own hide from his previous crimes while in office, and remake the government in his image, is given equal validation in rational conversations about “both sides”
That's just the next data point in the grand arc of "both sides".
I am sorry to disagree with the authors of the book. They introduce several interesting ideas, including the idea that the Right and Left have polarized in areas that and remained “calcified” in those areas in two successive elections (2016 and 2020). I am not sure that I agree that the polarization is centered on identity issues. I think that authors failed to take into account several demographic development. For example, many more people are college educated in 2024 than in 2016. This is the first population of the US that grew up with internet. At the present, unemployment is at its lowest in 20 years. What they are not taking into account the criminality of Trump, the propagandizing of the truth that has occurred on both sides, or the fact that race is not as important today as it was 10 years ago (in 2016). It is almost beyond my understanding how so much of the US population is anti-science, anti-climate change, and anti-vaccine. The number of anti-vaccine people is astonishing. The vaccine story is probably the most highly supported scientific story ever presented to the American people and yet a third of the population think that vaccines are causing all these problems when the actual numbers are probably on the order of 2-5% vaccine complications. In my opinion, Trump’s support in the American population is overhyped. I think that there are fewer Trump supporters than a third of the population. It roughly corresponds the education divide in the US population. Biden has performed much better than Trump. Biden is not that much older than Trump. Trump is old and behaved much worse than Biden.
Many of us would have to disagree that "Biden has performed better than Donald Trump did as US President!!" BOTH have behaved well at times & badly during other situations. I'm amazed how Trump has survived and succeeded through all the cruelty & dishonest political games & situations constantly pressuring him & attempting to take him down, since before-during-after his Presidency!!
Now we know that Trump was right on nearly everything.
Identity politics…like racism in 1964, sexism in 1972, religion in 1980 where Reagan started the religious zealot/cultism of fundamentalism. Never trumpets are crossing over and bridging between the parties
Sanders is older than Biden and Trump and Sanders doesn't need a teleprompter like Trump Biden and Sanders is more healthier than Biden and Trump
But he can't win the primary.
They will never let Bernie win
@@shivanshna7618 DNC doesn't like Sanders or everybody like him because they will rigged the election and the DNC elites pick the nominee said in a Florida federal court like the democratic party is like the mafia
@@perrybelcourt5441exactly can't elect guy who may actually do something good
Scrappy, plain spoken and radical isn't enough to win a national election. Sanders is just not where 80% of Americans are. He also has horrible PR- he is being marketed as a single issue candidate. High tax and anti business.
If data is better than vibes why is it worse
It's not worse
@@charlesmiv3842 But then why are vibes always better
@@bheemabachus5179 How are vibes always better? I don't think they are
@@charlesmiv3842 Because they've been more accurate than polls.
2016 -- vibes = Trump; polls = Clinton
2018 --- vibes and polls the same
2020 --- vibes = close election; polls = landslide
2022 --- vibes and polls the same.
Vibes have a 100% track record in the Trump era. Polls are a coin flip.
On the subject of the border, Biden is very much considering the optics of the situation, above even American honor. While the withdrawal was started by Trump, Biden was more than happy to let Republicans dictate immigration policy for Afghani interpreters who served with US troops by remaining silent, because he knows that bringing in brown people could cost him the election; one could just see the fact that the US has taken in far more Ukrainian refugees for a simple comparison.
Biden has much more experience. Trump was never a politician until he was elected President. Biden on the other hand, rose through the ranks over 50 years as a politician ans spent 8 years as VP. there is no comparison, and I think it's insulting to Biden to put him on par wirh Trump as far as experience goes.
He has experience screwing things up
Are you trying to make me vote for Trump? This is a great pitch
And hence why trump is so much better than Biden. There's a reason why the president is able to come from outside the system... 50 years of corruption does not make you more suitable for the position.
@@ClubPenguinFan106 ... I could care less what you do if you insist on voting for a traitor like Trump. I thought of one more plus for Biden. He isn't so vain that he has to wear bronzer to look good.
@@talbotcolleen"look good" if u mean great study for dementia symptoms
It's only a replay because Trump is trying to pardon himself and publish his enemies. Are you literally not allowed to say that?
That's part of what Trump wants to do, but if the calcification wasn't already there, he wouldn't even be able to attempt to pardon himself
Perhaps it would hold more weight if trump actually committed a crime
He has been indicted for 91 criminal counts. He has not yet been convicted. We will see. @@craighalpin896
@@craighalpin896for real, like if he had taken top-secret classified documents and told his employee to destroy the evidence lol.
@@teejatron9849 yeah, perhaps if the presidential records act wasn't there you might have something there... And the added distroy the document fever dream from the leftist is cute touch 🤡🤡🤡
Fivethirtyeight will every single episode talk about “how do black women feel about this?” “As a Latino in the Deep South, what are their chances?” Etc. etc. Every issue is identity politics. And this lady tries to blame Trump for identity politics, it’s quite laughable. She calls the wall ‘Identity politics’ and classifies Trumps travel ban as a Muslim ban.
In a nation of 330 million (and counting, thanks for the open border Joe!) people, you'd think that we could come up with two better likely nominees than Trump and Biden.
This channel loses credibility when only panders to liberals
Maybe youre speaking from a conservative viewpoint? They've lost the progressives here too.
When has it "only pandered to liberals"? Sorry, but not parroting MAGA cultist talking point doesn't make you a "liberal" it just makes you live in reality.
@@teejatron9849 What have they done to "lose" progressives?
@@charlesmiv3842 saying things like, "Biden doesn't have any challengers," in one breath, and then "Let's talk about Nikki Haley, who only has 5% support," - as if she's a serious candidate - in the next breath. Biden does have a progressive challenger who is only 22 pts behind, whereas Haley is 34 pts behind.
@@teejatron9849 It's true, Biden realistically doesn't have any challengers. Marianne Williamson herself stated that her only goal is to push Biden more left in the primary, and Cornell West is running Green Party, which is totally un-serious and has no chance. The difference here is that the people running against trump think they actually have a shot, whereas the people running against Biden have basically already thrown in the towel and are only doing it either to push Biden more left, or to tout their upcoming book sales lol.
Trump supporters are stuck in the 1800s
Trump is Unstoppable
Sure hope so, I’ll be rallying my friends and family to vote for the guy.
Prepare your google docs, pinpointing his strengths and plan to destroy the deep state.
Independents are swinging towards TRUMP!
PROOF????????????????????
Yes, with a baseball bat.
@@bibigemsA single outlier poll. Big brain stuff here.
😂 right i’m running the opposite way way back
Lol sure Jan
Tell Marianne she's not a serious candidate on the debate stage lol
Tell the candidates with 10 to 19% support in the primary (compared to Biden who only has 34%) AND THEIR SUPPORTERS that they're not serious candidates. And all that support, despite the BLACKOUT campaign (like from 538) and SMEAR campaigns against them. I thought 538 was pro-democracy. Guess not.