Hermitcraft 10 episode 3 grian makes a start on the new hermitcraft season. Our goals are derailed by the urge to fish. Hope you enjoy! #hermitcraft #minecraft
going from gem's video to yours like: gem: i'm so glad i got that prismarine so i can get started on my base! naturally, it's going to incorporate lots of prismarine, as it is a sea-themed build, so this will be huge for my mega build grian: look at this snail
At nearly 7,000 fishing rod uses, with a probability to get mending of ~0.03%, Grian should have gotten mending by now with an 88% likelihood. Things start getting stastically significant around 90%, so it's getting serious 👀
Well, if you consider the chance of this happening (7000 catches without a mending book) is over 10%. It's not really that strange. I mean a 1 in 10 chance of something happening isn't *that* low all things considered. If someone is wondering (and maybe knows more and can fix my math) I got this by getting the chance of a mending book Grian mentioned which is p(mending) = 1.9%*2/127 = 0.000299212598 Subract that from 1 and we get the chance of not getting a mending book which is p(!mending) = 1 - 0.000299212598 = 0.999700787 Then to get the chance of never getting a mending book in 7000 casts would be 0.999700787^7000 = 0.123094317 = 12.3%
I don't think every fishing rod use is him fishing, e.g. the etho pig launcher. Wouldn't it be better to approximate the number of things caught with the number of fish? Also isn't significance conventionally calculated at 5%? (Aka 95%)
@@mr.pickle6487if its going by 5%, he'd need to do another 2985 before it becomes unrealistic. by 10% he'd only need to do another 675. So I think the original comment said 10% since its a lot sooner (even if 5% is the norm)
What grian brought up about mending alternatives was very valid considering the *severe* nerfs to librarians mojang plans on or has made. The journey to (and value of) max gear gets bigger with each new enchant or upgrade. Minecraft should either rework how tool durability works in it’s entirety (potentially when a tool breaks, it doesn’t delete itself but exists in an unusable state till fixed) or make getting mending much easier and more sustainable.
Yeah I agree. maybe to add additional value to netherite, they could make it that once an item is upgraded to netherite, it doesn't break? And maybe this is already in the game and I'm dumb, but they could maybe give the player the ability to duplicate mending books the same way you can with netherite upgrades & armour trims. I'm sure other ppl have thought of that before but I think that just gives more credit to the idea. I feel like because they are making things harder to get in the game, balancing it so that it's not as repetitive once an item has been found would be a good idea.
Something I've gathered from your pig-sperimenting mid episode: I'm pretty sure the height you hit is dependant on when the fishing rods get pulled. Each rod adds a certain impulse, but if you pull two at the same time they'll only add the impulse of one. That time you hit Y=900 was when you had everybody pull in a perfect sequence, whereas normally you end up with one or two "pairs" of people pulling at about the same time. Or, I think that's what's happening at least - not too far into the technical side of MC.
Perhaps if you gave everyone a number to pull when it’s called then count up fast. You’d need to hit the last number before the boat gets above the pullers. I really want to see the theoretical max with like, tool assist software so tick-perfect execution from the maximum number of accounts.
@@nortalian549 Yeah, I was thinkin' something like that, would be glorious to see! Although, not sure if tick-perfect would be possible with the latency between players, would have to calculate the time difference and keep that in account while setting up the bots. Or, ya know, run 'em all on the same computer - that might work...
@@JuicedPotato for precise fishing timing, they could use the trapdoor plus noteblock setup from afk fish farms. you can control when the trapdoor closes, thus controlling when the player pulls back the fishing rod
I am loving the more deliberate pace of these episodes! It kind of feels like Grian's playing the way that an everyday player might go about it, but in an elevated nostalgic kind of way :)
Stats person here! At the point at which you were at 4,888 fish caught, there was a 23.16% chance of you having gotten that far without getting any mending books! Assuming all 6,914 times the fishing rod was used were all for catching something from the ocean, it would be 12.63%!
that's not how probability works mate. there's no "should," you aren't ever guaranteed a perfectly representative distribution, it just becomes exceptionally likely the larger the sample size is. op's comment is correct
For the probability to be less than given by the numbers he gave, the probability would be less than predicted if the number of fishes without mending was above 15400 (at 1% significance) and for a 5% significance, he could say the probability was lower at above 10000 fishes (both rounded to 3 SF)
@@asterling4 Yeah, the percentages do work better for statistics, but I was finding the theoretical amount of books he should have with the information given. Its also been a while since I have done math, so maybe I am out of line.
If you are able to manufacture end crystals in mass quantities: try using the blast of end crystals to propel oneself upward. I had a ton of ender crystals in the same space, I built a little tube-like structure around it, and I stood in the middle and set it off. I traveled 83,000 blocks upward.
I hope this helps your fishing endeavors. The chance of fishing an enchanted book is 1.9% There are 112 possible enchanted books to be fished. This means a mending book has a chance of 0.0169642857% to be fished, we'll round to 0.017% for simplicity's sake. This means after fishing 5,882 times you should statistically get 1 mending book. Of course this is all probability and RNG isn't always fair. Even if you look up the definition of probability this is what it says, "The extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case." So even if it is likely to happen doesn’t mean it should. But as you fish 4,850 more times to reach 11,764 (double 5,882) remember this: "The probability of success is difficult to estimate; but if we never search the chance of success is zero." - Philip Morrison You can do this Grain
Everyone getting launched and laughing and wanting a turn just reminds me of that one vid of the two kids taking turns hitting each other in the face with the garbage can lid 💀
Statistically, most gamblers quit just before their big win. Imagine if grian, every time he fishes, he tried one extra time. Imagine how many mending books he would have! Edit: Wow thanks for the over 300 likes! Most like comment I ever got!
@@NiaSwiftit's not misinformation, it's true that most gambler quit before they win big and it's true that if Grain keep fishing he will get more mending book. It's called statistic
Ima be honest I always loved fishing in Minecraft and seeing this whole situation with Grian and the ocean gods or whatever it is that does this it brings me so much joy
Hey grian to get horizontal momentum, you can have the boat by in a minecart, ride it off an edge to suspended it in the air, and while they are falling pull
Statistically speaking there is a 12.6 percent chance he doesn't have a mending book by now, which is not too small actually. Although if he is not lucky nor unlucke, then he is expected to have 2.06 by now.
So, a new service is being provided by Pearl. I think your new "trolling" buddies, the snails, could use a job. You could literally provide "snail mail" with Pearl ;) She is looking for employees...
Someone please make a fanart of sleep deprived Grian fishing on the moon like the DreamWorks guy - it would tie together "is the moon big" and this fishing madness so perfectly
90% of fishers quit right before they get mending
Promoting fishing could turn Hermitcraft S10 into the Fishing SMP
Well if you quit, you don't get mending
Don’t tell him that, he’ll never stop 😂🙈
Sunk cost fallacy is real.
beat me to it
going from gem's video to yours like:
gem: i'm so glad i got that prismarine so i can get started on my base! naturally, it's going to incorporate lots of prismarine, as it is a sea-themed build, so this will be huge for my mega build
grian: look at this snail
the snail is incredibly relevant
It IS a wonderful snail XD
I love snail
“Is the moon big?”
- THE ABSOLUTE LAST THING YOU WANT A HERMIT TO ASK
I paused the video INSTANTLY when I heard him say that
I immediately realized what he said and freaked
real
I heard that and just completely froze
Shortest season ever
"Row row row your boat" playing on the way to the ocean monument was gold
Yes! Wasn't that just about perfect?
Row row row your boat playing on the way to the ocean monument was gold
TRUE, i found myself grinning when it came up
2:37 and 6:13 if u wanna replay
Yeah, I noticed the tune right away XD
My favorite part of season 10 is watching non-Grian perspectives and seeing Grian fishing in the background
Nothing could convince me to watch the other povs more than this right here
@fatlizard_ Someone called Grian a little Cod I can't remember who at this point tho.
@@silverkyre I feel like that was gem. I think she's the one who's been calling him that from the start cause of the eyes lol
It’s like a cryptid sighting per episode
@@silverkyre False in S6 or 7 was the first in the Head game
99% of --gamblers-- fishermen quit before the jackpot
Good luck, grian
Edit: spelling
grians too stubborn to quit lol
1 man
2 men
Not mans
He is determined to get that mending
@aramisortsbottcher8201 not always
I was thinking about the same truism. :-) Happy someone beat me to it!
Great minds and all that jazz?
11:30 "Is the moon big?"
Bro got lauch to season 8 🤣
That is clever
A whole fishing dock and town would be really cool for Grian’s base. That would definitely get him the mending book.
And if that fails? Pray to the god of agriculture and fishing
Maybe even a sacrifice if things get desperate
Grain, just remember 99% of fishermen quit right before they get mending
Grian: "No more distractions!"
The Narrator: *_"A few seconds later..."_*
Nah, the classic "A few moments later..."
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different outcome."
Grian is *literally* going insane
2:46 The simple touch of
“row row row your boat”
Really added to this episode.
Good job.
I like how this season has basically just been a casual deep dive into all the strangest fishing rod bugs. XD
This season is all things fishing
Bugs? I see this as an intended feature
It just works
Grian, remember that 99% gamblers quit right before hitting the jackpot
😂
agreed
do NOT encourage him 😭🙏
@@starnemi6825 dont worry he will get it when the time comes (around episode 67-81)
@@FlyingBanana985ehhh more like episode 90-100
At nearly 7,000 fishing rod uses, with a probability to get mending of ~0.03%, Grian should have gotten mending by now with an 88% likelihood. Things start getting stastically significant around 90%, so it's getting serious 👀
Well, if you consider the chance of this happening (7000 catches without a mending book) is over 10%. It's not really that strange. I mean a 1 in 10 chance of something happening isn't *that* low all things considered.
If someone is wondering (and maybe knows more and can fix my math) I got this by getting the chance of a mending book Grian mentioned which is
p(mending) = 1.9%*2/127 = 0.000299212598
Subract that from 1 and we get the chance of not getting a mending book which is
p(!mending) = 1 - 0.000299212598 = 0.999700787
Then to get the chance of never getting a mending book in 7000 casts would be
0.999700787^7000 = 0.123094317 = 12.3%
Glad someone is doing the math xD
Thanks @LofiTurtle that's interesting. Not a maths person myself so not a clue!
I don't think every fishing rod use is him fishing, e.g. the etho pig launcher.
Wouldn't it be better to approximate the number of things caught with the number of fish?
Also isn't significance conventionally calculated at 5%? (Aka 95%)
@@mr.pickle6487if its going by 5%, he'd need to do another 2985 before it becomes unrealistic. by 10% he'd only need to do another 675. So I think the original comment said 10% since its a lot sooner (even if 5% is the norm)
What grian brought up about mending alternatives was very valid considering the *severe* nerfs to librarians mojang plans on or has made. The journey to (and value of) max gear gets bigger with each new enchant or upgrade. Minecraft should either rework how tool durability works in it’s entirety (potentially when a tool breaks, it doesn’t delete itself but exists in an unusable state till fixed) or make getting mending much easier and more sustainable.
Agreed. Their "fixes" are making the game less enjoyable to play
Elytras have that broken state so they've already got code that works
Yeah I agree. maybe to add additional value to netherite, they could make it that once an item is upgraded to netherite, it doesn't break? And maybe this is already in the game and I'm dumb, but they could maybe give the player the ability to duplicate mending books the same way you can with netherite upgrades & armour trims. I'm sure other ppl have thought of that before but I think that just gives more credit to the idea. I feel like because they are making things harder to get in the game, balancing it so that it's not as repetitive once an item has been found would be a good idea.
Dnd wizards can copy books with money and time. Maybe add something like that?
Tinkers construct basically
From not wanting to build the back of bases to fishing for one book. Grian got some problems but it’s so entertaining to watch
LOL😛 So true.
Here we see that Grian is a victim of the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Grian: Fu- screw fishing, and I’ll see you tomorrow
Sunk coast fallacy
Hehe sunk
You could say that he fell for it *hook* *line* *and* *sinker* .
timestamp?
@@theforestofoak he never said what I put above, it’s more of a joke dialogue
'Row Row Row Your Boat' playing while Grian and Gem were boating was such a nice touch!
21:10
"Neil Hamstrong"
Omfg that's way better than "pig me up Scotty" 🤣🤣🤣😭
Sporknik
NASAusage
@HeyKevinYT A for effort
“Is the moon big?”
season 8 PTSD
Grian: We will do something productive today
Also Grian: fishing for loot and launching people into space
That is productive
“I’m telling you it’s the next book man it’s the next book” every gambler ever 25:50
30:51 You can hear Gem lean back in her chair as she laughs at Grian. Perfection.
Thats the first cackle Ive heard from her
21:46 I swear i had to watch this half a dozen times to be sure that grian didn't just place Skizzle onto the pig
On the plus side of all that fishing, at least you've already gathered an entire season's worth of food.
Grian, at this point, just rebuild the bloody Barge, make your whole set up aquatic and fishing related
Something I've gathered from your pig-sperimenting mid episode:
I'm pretty sure the height you hit is dependant on when the fishing rods get pulled. Each rod adds a certain impulse, but if you pull two at the same time they'll only add the impulse of one.
That time you hit Y=900 was when you had everybody pull in a perfect sequence, whereas normally you end up with one or two "pairs" of people pulling at about the same time.
Or, I think that's what's happening at least - not too far into the technical side of MC.
Perhaps if you gave everyone a number to pull when it’s called then count up fast. You’d need to hit the last number before the boat gets above the pullers. I really want to see the theoretical max with like, tool assist software so tick-perfect execution from the maximum number of accounts.
@@nortalian549 Yeah, I was thinkin' something like that, would be glorious to see!
Although, not sure if tick-perfect would be possible with the latency between players, would have to calculate the time difference and keep that in account while setting up the bots.
Or, ya know, run 'em all on the same computer - that might work...
@@JuicedPotato for precise fishing timing, they could use the trapdoor plus noteblock setup from afk fish farms. you can control when the trapdoor closes, thus controlling when the player pulls back the fishing rod
Grian does indeed have a "reel" problem. Only one of them works
i was waiting for someone to make this joke lol
that pun was "cod" awful
joking it was actually pretty funny :)
@@DuckyBoi27 Sometimes I make puns just for the halibut
I love "herring" all the fish puns
32:10 Even your snail managed to get to the top while you were still fishing 😅
Grian, if you ever have to name a pig for the fishing pole slingshot, name it "Mr. Spoink", a parody off of Mr. Spock.
Ooh that one’s good
reverse angry birds
Hope it doesn't stop bouncing
context please
@@gametalk3149 Spock is a character from Star Trek
I am loving the more deliberate pace of these episodes! It kind of feels like Grian's playing the way that an everyday player might go about it, but in an elevated nostalgic kind of way :)
"wouldn't hurt to take a peak" *accidentally triggers a raid*
It did, in fact, hurt to take a peak.
Impulse really fished the only Mending book in the universe didn't he 😂
I do believe another hermit fished one up as well though. Think it was Cleo
It’s the karma for kicking him out immediately. The ocean didn’t like that 😜
Iskall fished one too I think
The Book of Fishanti.
@@ETools. Yep even iskall and pearl got mending book already lol
29:36 😂😂 for a sec I thought grian had fished that much that he was hallucinating that gem was there 😅😂
Du ligner Nicki 🫵
Same LOL
@@hunden2749 what dose this mean in English id love to no 💚
Shcizophrenia
Grain: does building montage we dont understand.
Grian when he finished it: AND YooouUUvvE Got YOOURRselFF A SNNNAIL!!!
And today on Hermitcraft we answer the question of whether or not pigs can fly. Turns out they’re quite good at it.
But they need to be in a boat.
" Is the moon big? "
I INSTANTLY PAUSED
REAL
SAME
Hermitcraft 8?
Stats person here!
At the point at which you were at 4,888 fish caught, there was a 23.16% chance of you having gotten that far without getting any mending books!
Assuming all 6,914 times the fishing rod was used were all for catching something from the ocean, it would be 12.63%!
At 6900 casts he should have 2.065 mending books, and at 10000 casts he should get 3 mending books.
that's not how probability works mate. there's no "should," you aren't ever guaranteed a perfectly representative distribution, it just becomes exceptionally likely the larger the sample size is. op's comment is correct
@@XunielfYT meant to reply to you lol
For the probability to be less than given by the numbers he gave, the probability would be less than predicted if the number of fishes without mending was above 15400 (at 1% significance) and for a 5% significance, he could say the probability was lower at above 10000 fishes (both rounded to 3 SF)
@@asterling4 Yeah, the percentages do work better for statistics, but I was finding the theoretical amount of books he should have with the information given. Its also been a while since I have done math, so maybe I am out of line.
At this point, the fish market just walked itself over to grian and said: "you own me"
This reminds me of the diamond hunt with Mumbo where every time they dug in a direction it was “I keep my diamonds HERE!!!”
"This mesa is so cool, I feel like we need to puta a gladiator arena in there or something." Is one of the most random things I have heard
If you are able to manufacture end crystals in mass quantities: try using the blast of end crystals to propel oneself upward. I had a ton of ender crystals in the same space, I built a little tube-like structure around it, and I stood in the middle and set it off. I traveled 83,000 blocks upward.
18:00 "skizz issue" had me dyinnnn lmao
One of the best episodes of Hermitcraft I've watched!! I was smiling and laughing all the way through the end. XD
“Is the moon big?” Had me laughing
Thank you for noticing this reference you are a golden human being
season 8 was great man
rest in big moon season 8 😔😔😔😔
@@Cack_Jooperwould you say they're a golden nara?
28:28
I'm just making a personal note to myself, Grian has a point, remember this.
Bdubs will have an elytra before Grian gets a mending book. 😂
I hope this helps your fishing endeavors.
The chance of fishing an enchanted book is 1.9%
There are 112 possible enchanted books to be fished. This means a mending book has a chance of 0.0169642857% to be fished, we'll round to 0.017% for simplicity's sake.
This means after fishing 5,882 times you should statistically get 1 mending book. Of course this is all probability and RNG isn't always fair. Even if you look up the definition of probability this is what it says, "The extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case."
So even if it is likely to happen doesn’t mean it should.
But as you fish 4,850 more times to reach 11,764 (double 5,882)
remember this:
"The probability of success is difficult to estimate; but if we never search the chance of success is zero."
- Philip Morrison
You can do this Grain
Grain🍞???
Grain 🌾???
autocorrect is a ducking birch
My man did a lot of math for this, good work.👏👏👏
But he said chances for a book being mending is 2/127
I loved it when he said “Is the moon big?” It was my favorite part! 😂
😂
😂
Love it!
Everyone getting launched and laughing and wanting a turn just reminds me of that one vid of the two kids taking turns hitting each other in the face with the garbage can lid 💀
Statistically, most gamblers quit just before their big win. Imagine if grian, every time he fishes, he tried one extra time. Imagine how many mending books he would have!
Edit: Wow thanks for the over 300 likes! Most like comment I ever got!
i love spreading misinformation across the internet!
@NiaSwift its a joke Lil bro
@@NiaSwiftit's not misinformation, it's true that most gambler quit before they win big and it's true that if Grain keep fishing he will get more mending book. It's called statistic
@slimeyar we call that a gamblers fallacy
@@RebeccaMontrey and i responded with a meme, clearly i understood the joke lil dingus
2:38 As a preschool teacher I appreciate the "Row row row your boat" tune as the background music😂🎶
That book is going to put Grian in a straightjacket, with a fishing pole in one hand.
I love how when they are sailing, an arrangement of row row row your boat is playing
Agreed. I absolutely loved that little arrangement
I can't stop thinking of The Cat from red dwarf "agh! I've been fished to death."
for every 100 fish Grian catches, Rodney gains a line
This video explains Grians lack of Hermitcraft uploads compared to others. FISHING!!!
Sees snail: "Oh no. Everyone is in danger."
"pig me up Scotty" and "neil hamstrong" XD
GRIAN FISHING IN A SHADOW REDUCES FISH CHANCE
It doesn't. It just makes the time It takes to get a bite longer. And only if it's not directly exposed to sun/moon which, he was.
“90% of fishers quit before they get a mending book” - some random fisherman
11:31 : "...Is the moon big?..."
Me: NOT AGAINNNNNNNNN
2:41 how fitting to play the tune for “row, row, row your boat” 😂
Grian: I have a secret
Random person: What is it?
Grian: SNAIL
Pigs name could have been ,, squeal Armstrong "😂
I was hoping for Cosmoink
"is the moon big?" final stage of mr incredible becomes uncanny
snail mischief is the best idea ever
Ima be honest
I always loved fishing in Minecraft and seeing this whole situation with Grian and the ocean gods or whatever it is that does this it brings me so much joy
6:30, song while in the boat being "row row your boat" is adorable
3:04 I think Grain’s chances of getting mending have been statistically soured by the other hermits who got mending quickly
"Grian's going to spend a year fishing for mending" -PearlescentMoon- Grian didn't bother to read it
Hey grian to get horizontal momentum, you can have the boat by in a minecart, ride it off an edge to suspended it in the air, and while they are falling pull
You should try having a chain of boats connected by people with fishing rods in the boats and try to send the whole server to space.
Remember Grain, 90% of fishers quit before they catch a mending book!
Statistically speaking there is a 12.6 percent chance he doesn't have a mending book by now, which is not too small actually. Although if he is not lucky nor unlucke, then he is expected to have 2.06 by now.
Grian fishing Is just the gamblecore thing but in Minecraft
99% of fishermen quit before they get mending
They need an enchant to throw more bobbers from the fishing rod, maybe one to heighten the chance of enchant books
Grian: "We are gonna take it easy this season"
Also Grian: Sending players to mars on episode 3
With all the fishing it reminds me of "Pickles on the Seafloor" song🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Me looking at grians build: .... A platypus?
Me: .....
Also me but in a special voice : A PERRY THE PLATYPUS?!?
23:58 "Did you know that 99% of gamblers quit before their big win"
0:03 "Were not getting distracted today"
Proceeds to get distracted with Gem (is adequite).
“Is the moon big?” 😂😂😂😂
JuPigter was a missed opportunity
16:36 - this is like the sloingshot ride you see in theme parks
Sloingshot? 😭
did the math: impretty sure its a 0.028% chance to get a mending book from fishing with luck of the sea 3
this is gambling addiction with extra steps fr
11:55
The pig looks equally as spooked.
Bombasic side eye
Grian should become a minecraft fisherman at this point
Row Row Row,
Your Boat,
Gently Down the Stream,
Merrily Merrily Merrily Merrily,
Lifes but a Dream.
So, a new service is being provided by Pearl. I think your new "trolling" buddies, the snails, could use a job. You could literally provide "snail mail" with Pearl ;) She is looking for employees...
If you make a 2x2 water hole and put a fish in it, you can fish at crazy speeds. Not sure it works in Java but it works in Bedrock
6:00 idk why but gem’s “GRIAN! >:C” gave me bluey vibes
A platypus? Perry the platypus!!! Someone needs to transform your house into Perry for your color choice.
Someone please make a fanart of sleep deprived Grian fishing on the moon like the DreamWorks guy - it would tie together "is the moon big" and this fishing madness so perfectly
ooh that'd be really cool, i might try drawing that :)
Ooo yay, thanks!
(also hello fellow aro ace, always nice seeing you guys in the wild lol)@@xx-ari-phoenix
On it.
Grian, in the sky: is the moon big?
Everyone from season 8: *vietnam flashbacks*
Here comes the moon (here comes the sun parody) XD
Therapist: what is your addiction?
Grian: fishing for a book in Minecraft
Grian: starts fishing
Me: starts fishing
Grian: gets addicted
Me: gets addicted
Therapist: what is your addiction?
Me: watching Grian fishing for a book in Minecraft
I guess fich are just gods.
You'll get over it in like 5-6 years, that's how long it took me to stop fishing.@@rosesaysmeow8358
Grain's chronicly fishing
8:09 Pearlescentmoon in the chat saying "Grian's going to spend a year fishing for mending" She's already predicted the entireity of Season 10
I thought only I noticed😂
Someone noticed it ahah
@@piemy don't u mean AHA-h??????
@@Tee_loves_Tea ye-AHA-h
"we're not gonna get distracted today!" *starts launching people up to orbit with fishing rods 5 minutes later*
you don't get it, it is the agenda for the day and therefore NOT a distraction xD
Moby Grian. Chasing that white book.