I have a follow up to this piece at jeffrich.substack.com now, and you can buy me a coffee at buymeacoffee.com/burningarchive to support my work sharing an independent history-informed voice on world affairs. Thanks all for your support 🙏🙏
although i do think he's entirely ignorant of chinese history i don't think he's dishonest or has bad intentions. his hope is to avert war between the USA and China, though he really does need to consider what China has actually done in the past. Correct me if I am wrong, he doesn't even mention the warring states era let alone Qin's governance model or legalism?
Mersheimer is wrongl, His assertion of inevitability of warsv8s an assumption. He misses the key point that wars are instigated by arrogant and ignorant poloticians . Wars aren't inevitable.
@@jacintochua6885those ignorant politicans have interests. the state they are ruling has interests. wars follow those interests. they don‘t just occur by pure arbitrariness
Russia also does not want to threaten America : it simply wants the right to exist and to develop to its full potential, unmolested and independent of foreign influence - something the U.S. will not allow to any country.
@@cassandra.mccaffrey always? What if a worker is stealing money from the store? It's on camera. Is that a projection of the boss's shadow? Or just the truth? I find your comment troubling
@Bakarost Wage theft is estimated to cost American workers $50 billion annually, which is more than all robberies, car thefts, and burglaries combined.
The thing I'm constantly amazed by is, regardless if you are left or right, America or Europe, vassal states like Australia or Philippines or Japan or Korea (you know, places that are, literally bordering China or one strait away), how very few people in the media actually KNOW anything about China. When these fools with the loudest mouth and the biggest mic talk about China, there is no fact checking, no vetting of the interviewee. They have no knowledge of language, the history, the people, the minorities, and the cultures of China. They could barely understand how the Chinese government is structured, how the economy is run, other than "they are communists and they stealing our jobs (or technology, etc)." When they bring in a "China experts", again most don't speak the language much less read and write (and the few that do... believe me, a second grader can do no worse). Only a handful have stepped foot in China, and when they did they were there to snap some "gotcha" photos to round up and seal tight their pre-written stories. Even the sources, are like second, third, fourth handed; hell, some are not even based in China. When a genuine expert finally put up a piece on TH-cam or podcast, the view are in the 2 digits, or if they're lucky 3 digits. Just the other day I was explaining to a co-worker about Chinese EVs. Now this guy was a college graduate, working in a bureaucratic office that for better or for worst does require some brains. He has never heard of BYD. He had no idea about the rise of Chinese EVs and their quality. It's not like he's living under a proverbial rock; the algorithm keeps him in a bubble...just like 99.999% of America. So anything dumbasses like Allison or Zeihan or Gorgon Chang says, Thucydides Trap and so on, the people just nod their heads in unison like in the Little Green Men from Toy Story: Ooooooooh, trap.....
Ah you mean ccp narrative? Or real one where there are 999 problems that which Chinese Communist Party hides from its people and world? It's known you all live in ignorance like good sheep.
As a Filipino reading the first half of the first sentence, it is easy to say your brain washed af, like dude you need to go out of your room and touch some grass. If a country is a vassal state, it would "parrot" whatever the superior state is stating even if it is against to the interest of the vassal state. Your welcome
"...dumbasses like Allison or Zeihan or Gordon Chang says..." couldn't agree with you more on this statement. But unlike the rest of the 99.999 percent of Americans who are truly ignorant, these three I suspect know the truth and reality but regardless engage in their disingenuous blathering because it sells to their ignorant and chest thumping audience.
The Chinese practice the timeless war principles in their book of -The Art of War by famous historical War Narrator Sun Tzu; Which is way ahead of any other war doctrines by other civilizations.
Thanks Jeff that was excellent. Your ending reminds me of that observation of business management - culture eats strategy for breakfast. Fantastic that you are 'reaching out' to China, to the East, to an unbroken tradition of recorded thought that starts 6,000 years ago. This what the West cannot conceive. Our brains have been conditioned by 2,000 or so years of Judaic-Christian mythology, teaching and indocrination that we are the Way. Not to mention our more recently developed blind belief in reason and Western science. Where science became separated from art and philosophy. So here's our first clue. We in the West are schizophrenic. We separated our right brain from our left brain. We deny our wholistic self. We all need personal journeys to the east (like Hermann Hesse). As an aside here before I finish - Dugin is totally on to this. He talks about traditional and spiritual values, humanity and metaphysics. Kinda deep stuff. His subtext is - Russia is (literally) the bridge between West and East. What we find at the end of that bridge is the painting at 21:11
@@charleswilkie2097 blinded by your hate for the west. You have only surface level knowledge of the spirit of the west and the depths of its soul. Only recently has it be poisoned with idealistic self hatred. Art and innovation surged in the west you didn’t even realize what you overlooked, such arrogance.
I absolutely love listening to you, your voice gives emotion and fullness to the ideas and history you speak. The West should fear Banquo's ghost and the empire will fall because all empires fall. What goes up comes down or as the Buddhists speak of arising and passing away. It is just the way it is. All is impermanent. So glad to be able to listen to you.
The funny part is that Murica thinks they are playing chess, while the Chinese are playing GO. What a horrible Japanese term for something that is so quintessential Chinese…….
I’m fresh outta hats 🎩 to take off for You Jeff. So I bow down to your presentation & your correct conclusion 👊 🙏 May US & All others see the light as well, someday soon. Before it’s all too late…
Innovative way to present your arguments Jeff. I learned things and agree about the critical importance of culture. This world of ones and zeros dehumanizes and leaves one empty
all this historically talk is amusing, but really we should discuss why Thucydides Trap does not apply to present day context. for the reason that the trap is really about regional hegemony and not interregional rivalry. the core interest of US remains the americas and European sphere of influence. despite it claim of pivot to Asia, it has become more involved in Western wars, and had for the first time in history, lost it ability to maintain at least one carrier in Asia, as the Israeli genocide force US to commit 4 carriers to the middle east. So US is moving further away from China than toward it despite all the narrative and posturing, the hard power is simply dismishing. in fact all the base expansion is to make up for the reduction in standing forces to compensate for US declining power in Asia. the air defence system promise to Taiwan was given to Israel, and there is nothing Taiwan can do about it. that's the reality. why this is so is because US primary challenger in global power is not China, but Russia. Russia is willing to armed states that are oppose to the US, it PMC operates in Africa and other region to counter US influences. China simply doesn't do that, so aas US fight to retain its power, it iis force into more conflict with Russia rather than China. even the recent Syria collapse is an example of US and Russia proxy war with little Chinese involvement. China's mastery of defensive realism is 2nd to none, by doing nothing they have manage to position themselves on the edge of the playing field, and US would have to lose alot of ground on the rest of the field to concentrate on China's side of the field.
Thucydides is a historical lesson from the disastrous wars of the past.. Wars are not inevitable. The wars of the past was disastrous eniughl, in this age of nuclear weapons , do humans dare to try?
Ion watch the video, but the notion and 'theory' of the TT seems like bland historicism. As well, its basic idea come from a completely alien world order.
I follow your channel intermittently, so I never visit your Substack. You should leave a link here for viewers like myself to buy you a few cups of coffee. I just like history, which interests me.
I am willing to accept your assessment of Allison. However, as an Indian, I cannot see China ruled by the CCP as anything other than a belligerent, bullying, revisionist, and expansionist power. Of course, in this behaviour it is no different than the UK in the 19th century and the US in the 20th century and continuing to today. That does not justify it. It was misguided US policies fuelled by the cupidity of its moneyed classes that allowed China to become the threat to world peace and stability that it is today.
@@krishnamoorthysankaranaray4057 You are lucky one because you are not one of the citizens where the war broke out, e.g., Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, etc.
By “US” do you mean some academics and journalists who are free to say whatever they want and are not necessarily representatives of the American government or even the American people at large? GG clickbait.
Hey "paradox", do you know how your realpolitik without morality looks like: bombing of Belgrade, destruction of Libya, invasion of Iraq, financing nzis in eastern Europe, erasing of Gaza, sponsoring of terrorists to destroy Syria... some of the successes of the last 30 years. We have lost all morality that's why we justify its absence in our deeds.
![Global Capitalism: China vs. US - System Rising vs. Falling [September 2022]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/beOSBVFa-9I/mqdefault.jpg)
![Global Capitalism: The U.S. Election and Trump 2.0 in Historical Perspective [November 2024]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/0-WR6Zq7Qec/mqdefault.jpg)
I have a follow up to this piece at jeffrich.substack.com now, and you can buy me a coffee at buymeacoffee.com/burningarchive to support my work sharing an independent history-informed voice on world affairs. Thanks all for your support 🙏🙏
although i do think he's entirely ignorant of chinese history i don't think he's dishonest or has bad intentions. his hope is to avert war between the USA and China, though he really does need to consider what China has actually done in the past. Correct me if I am wrong, he doesn't even mention the warring states era let alone Qin's governance model or legalism?
Hi Jeff.
I am so glad that I got recommended your YT channel. I also just subscribed to your Substack 😊
The Thucydides Trap just means "we're going to do what we feel like doing no matter how self-destructive it is."
This explains why Mearsheimer is right about Russia but quite wrong about China.
Mersheimer is wrongl, His assertion of inevitability of warsv8s an assumption. He misses the key point that
wars are instigated by arrogant and ignorant poloticians . Wars aren't inevitable.
He is wrong about Russia too.
@@jacintochua6885those ignorant politicans have interests. the state they are ruling has interests. wars follow those interests. they don‘t just occur by pure arbitrariness
Russia also does not want to threaten America : it simply wants the right to exist and to develop to its full potential, unmolested and independent of foreign influence - something the U.S. will not allow to any country.
“…not obscured by the London fog of imperial nostalgia” - well stated
The accusations of the powerful against those they hold power over are always projections of their own shadow.
@@cassandra.mccaffrey always? What if a worker is stealing money from the store? It's on camera. Is that a projection of the boss's shadow? Or just the truth? I find your comment troubling
Yeah. It's very useful. If you want to know what the USA is doing, just look at what they accuse others of. So easy and quick.
@Bakarost Wage theft is estimated to cost American workers $50 billion annually, which is more than all robberies, car thefts, and burglaries combined.
@@cassandra.mccaffrey deep down they know they deserve vengeance.
@@cassandra.mccaffrey Are they a group, or are they 'individuals, making decided economic action' von mises.
The thing I'm constantly amazed by is, regardless if you are left or right, America or Europe, vassal states like Australia or Philippines or Japan or Korea (you know, places that are, literally bordering China or one strait away), how very few people in the media actually KNOW anything about China. When these fools with the loudest mouth and the biggest mic talk about China, there is no fact checking, no vetting of the interviewee. They have no knowledge of language, the history, the people, the minorities, and the cultures of China. They could barely understand how the Chinese government is structured, how the economy is run, other than "they are communists and they stealing our jobs (or technology, etc)." When they bring in a "China experts", again most don't speak the language much less read and write (and the few that do... believe me, a second grader can do no worse). Only a handful have stepped foot in China, and when they did they were there to snap some "gotcha" photos to round up and seal tight their pre-written stories. Even the sources, are like second, third, fourth handed; hell, some are not even based in China. When a genuine expert finally put up a piece on TH-cam or podcast, the view are in the 2 digits, or if they're lucky 3 digits. Just the other day I was explaining to a co-worker about Chinese EVs. Now this guy was a college graduate, working in a bureaucratic office that for better or for worst does require some brains. He has never heard of BYD. He had no idea about the rise of Chinese EVs and their quality. It's not like he's living under a proverbial rock; the algorithm keeps him in a bubble...just like 99.999% of America. So anything dumbasses like Allison or Zeihan or Gorgon Chang says, Thucydides Trap and so on, the people just nod their heads in unison like in the Little Green Men from Toy Story: Ooooooooh, trap.....
Ah you mean ccp narrative? Or real one where there are 999 problems that which Chinese Communist Party hides from its people and world? It's known you all live in ignorance like good sheep.
@@colonylaser4860 very well said
As a Filipino reading the first half of the first sentence, it is easy to say your brain washed af, like dude you need to go out of your room and touch some grass. If a country is a vassal state, it would "parrot" whatever the superior state is stating even if it is against to the interest of the vassal state. Your welcome
Perter Zeihan's videos on Russia are so delusional they can serve only as comedy, and not even good comedy at that.
"...dumbasses like Allison or Zeihan or Gordon Chang says..." couldn't agree with you more on this statement. But unlike the rest of the 99.999 percent of Americans who are truly ignorant, these three I suspect know the truth and reality but regardless engage in their disingenuous blathering because it sells to their ignorant and chest thumping audience.
Idk why this channel showed up on my feed - but I am very appreciative. Subbed.
Same
The Chinese practice the timeless war principles in their book of -The Art of War by famous historical War Narrator Sun Tzu;
Which is way ahead of any other war doctrines by other civilizations.
Thanks Jeff that was excellent. Your ending reminds me of that observation of business management - culture eats strategy for breakfast. Fantastic that you are 'reaching out' to China, to the East, to an unbroken tradition of recorded thought that starts 6,000 years ago. This what the West cannot conceive. Our brains have been conditioned by 2,000 or so years of Judaic-Christian mythology, teaching and indocrination that we are the Way. Not to mention our more recently developed blind belief in reason and Western science. Where science became separated from art and philosophy. So here's our first clue. We in the West are schizophrenic. We separated our right brain from our left brain. We deny our wholistic self. We all need personal journeys to the east (like Hermann Hesse). As an aside here before I finish - Dugin is totally on to this. He talks about traditional and spiritual values, humanity and metaphysics. Kinda deep stuff. His subtext is - Russia is (literally) the bridge between West and East. What we find at the end of that bridge is the painting at 21:11
thank you. check out my part two over at jeffrich.substack.com where I discuss culture some more
@@charleswilkie2097 blinded by your hate for the west. You have only surface level knowledge of the spirit of the west and the depths of its soul. Only recently has it be poisoned with idealistic self hatred. Art and innovation surged in the west you didn’t even realize what you overlooked, such arrogance.
I absolutely love listening to you, your voice gives emotion and fullness to the ideas and history you speak. The West should fear Banquo's ghost and the empire will fall because all empires fall. What goes up comes down or as the Buddhists speak of arising and passing away. It is just the way it is. All is impermanent. So glad to be able to listen to you.
thank you. that is very affirming. Thank you for listening
Would love hear Trump trying to say Chyna and Thucydides Trap in one sentence.
lol covfefe!
He would be permanently tongue-tied.
The funny part is that Murica thinks they are playing chess, while the Chinese are playing GO. What a horrible Japanese term for something that is so quintessential Chinese…….
Weiqi, 围棋。
Thank you. It reminds me of the Domino Theory metaphor. No different. 😊
Eloquently said. And spot on. 👍
I’m fresh outta hats 🎩 to take off for You Jeff. So I bow down to your presentation & your correct conclusion 👊 🙏 May US & All others see the light as well, someday soon. Before it’s all too late…
Thanks for the appreciation!
I love the Banquo's Ghost analogy.
Innovative way to present your arguments Jeff. I learned things and agree about the critical importance of culture. This world of ones and zeros dehumanizes and leaves one empty
all this historically talk is amusing, but really we should discuss why Thucydides Trap does not apply to present day context. for the reason that the trap is really about regional hegemony and not interregional rivalry. the core interest of US remains the americas and European sphere of influence. despite it claim of pivot to Asia, it has become more involved in Western wars, and had for the first time in history, lost it ability to maintain at least one carrier in Asia, as the Israeli genocide force US to commit 4 carriers to the middle east. So US is moving further away from China than toward it despite all the narrative and posturing, the hard power is simply dismishing. in fact all the base expansion is to make up for the reduction in standing forces to compensate for US declining power in Asia. the air defence system promise to Taiwan was given to Israel, and there is nothing Taiwan can do about it. that's the reality. why this is so is because US primary challenger in global power is not China, but Russia. Russia is willing to armed states that are oppose to the US, it PMC operates in Africa and other region to counter US influences. China simply doesn't do that, so aas US fight to retain its power, it iis force into more conflict with Russia rather than China. even the recent Syria collapse is an example of US and Russia proxy war with little Chinese involvement. China's mastery of defensive realism is 2nd to none, by doing nothing they have manage to position themselves on the edge of the playing field, and US would have to lose alot of ground on the rest of the field to concentrate on China's side of the field.
BEAUTIFUL. THANK YOU SO MUCH SIR
Thank you. Best wishes.
You too, thanks for watching!
Thank you
A comment of appreciation !
Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
Thank you!
No such thing as "Westerner Intellectuals"this is something what is established by People around the World,and is Something what everbody knows
Thucydides is a historical lesson from the disastrous wars of the past.. Wars are not inevitable.
The wars of the past was disastrous eniughl, in this age of nuclear weapons , do humans dare to try?
War is inevitable when someone thinks it is or thinks he will win. That's why it is in fact inevitable.
Question: Is the black and white image from Akira Kurosawa's "Throne of Blood" film?
Yes
@@ronbock8291 Thank you! I guess that my memory isn't totally gone, yet!
Yes as well as the brief musical sting at the start and end. The Macbeth theme
London fog, indeed
cheers
Thucydides Trap was something coined by an Ancient Greek called Thucydides, it has nothing to do with America
Except Graeme Allison's book that claimed it was a "primal insight" about the USA's challenge today
@@theburningarchive Yes, but only because China deems it so, in order for china to become the sole superpower in the world by 2049
Superb
Thanks for the encouragement!
Ion watch the video, but the notion and 'theory' of the TT seems like bland historicism. As well, its basic idea come from a completely alien world order.
I follow your channel intermittently, so I never visit your Substack. You should leave a link here for viewers like myself to buy you a few cups of coffee. I just like history, which interests me.
I second this.
I am willing to accept your assessment of Allison. However, as an Indian, I cannot see China ruled by the CCP as anything other than a belligerent, bullying, revisionist, and expansionist power. Of course, in this behaviour it is no different than the UK in the 19th century and the US in the 20th century and continuing to today. That does not justify it. It was misguided US policies fuelled by the cupidity of its moneyed classes that allowed China to become the threat to world peace and stability that it is today.
@@krishnamoorthysankaranaray4057 The US is worse by far, much more than a bully creating wars everywhere.
@@krishnamoorthysankaranaray4057 You are lucky one because you are not one of the citizens where the war broke out, e.g., Ukraine, Palestine, Lebanon, etc.
@@krishnamoorthysankaranaray4057y'all made peace with China in October didn't ya?
By “US” do you mean some academics and journalists who are free to say whatever they want and are not necessarily representatives of the American government or even the American people at large? GG clickbait.
Very good video.😊🇺🇸
++ 🇷🇴
This user is a bot silly
Complete load of crap. Your whole thesis of trying to expand morality to real politik is so naive its difficult to take any part of it seriously.
Hey "paradox", do you know how your realpolitik without morality looks like: bombing of Belgrade, destruction of Libya, invasion of Iraq, financing nzis in eastern Europe, erasing of Gaza, sponsoring of terrorists to destroy Syria... some of the successes of the last 30 years. We have lost all morality that's why we justify its absence in our deeds.
@@Jack2200 he has a paranormal moral