Reconsidering Southeast Asia | Panel 5 - The Future of Southeast Asia
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 พ.ค. 2024
- On May 16, 2024, Stanford University's Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) marked a quarter-century of our Southeast Asia Program by convening the conference “Reconsidering Southeast Asia: Issues and Prospects,” where esteemed scholars from Stanford, the United States, and Southeast Asia joined us to examine current issues affecting the region. Panel topics included geopolitical competition, environmental sustainability, and gender inequality. The economic and sociopolitical futures of the region were also debated, and alumni of the Southeast Asia Program shared their scholarly experiences and findings.
Panelists:
Gita Wirjawan
Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC and Former Minister of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia
Richard Heydarian
Columnist and Senior Lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines, Diliman
Moderator
Don Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University
it is not that difficult to understand, that progression is the right of all peoples and ASEAN peoples have the same human brain and capabilities as everyone else.
What I saying is simple, prevent cobflict if not don't talk about growth.
Simply understanding we belong to the Asean family. From the peace treaty to the asean charter to almost any issue prevent our member stuck in the rabbit hole to understanding the real world issue. But first thing first, if you trust me and please believe me there isn't any conflicts but more rather generated by some non state armed actor. What difference if Philippines fighting and claim for the west Philippines sea belong to Philippines and China on the other hand provide them with more reason for China on the south china sea? In order to define the wicked problem is to provide Philippines president to present his keynote speech. The strategic trust between Singapore and Philippines is so important and so much so to Malaysia and every ASEAN member states.
@@LanBrian Fix your grammar
If one had told the Ukrainians in 2008, some million Ukrainians did not have to dye for America.
@@migspeculates My advice is not meant to send you down a rabbit hole, and involve you in chaos and disorder. I'd suggest you to improve your reading skill and fix your grammatical pedantry syndrome and PLEASE learn to respect and correct your approach and stance that has been taken to any non-native speaker friends in South East Asia
Get real. One must solve the bread and butter issue first, stop the war mongering with China and drum up Philippines nationalism. The amount of defend budget Philippines spend on defence is misreable. Lastly, I remembered 40 years ago, the streets in Singapore are sandy and LKY said we can't spend on sports and arts but we need to spend on infrastructure to attact foreign investments. As a comparison 40 years ago, Philippines and Burma are better off in wealth. In short, war roll you back in time. Cultivate integrity, accountability in governance and as a reminder don't be used as a prawn and no one is going to fight your war for you.
Get real. China's greed, thuggery and thievery is what is fueling more military spending not only in the Philippines but in many other countries in the region..
Instead of pointing a finger at the Philippines, why not speak about China's massive military spending which is a real threat to the 15 countries whose territories China is trying to gobble up.
The Philippines is now leading the entire ASEAN Region in terms of economic growth and is projected to remain among the growth leaders in the region in the coming years.
The Philippine economy is performing well despite President Marcos Jr's policy to stand up against China's aggressive expansionism.
And when you speak about Singapore, it has indeed progressed faster than the Philippinesbut Singapore's economy is now growing less than 3% and will remain in that level of growth for a considerable time.
The Philippine economy will overtake Singapore's GDP by 2027 and Thailand by 2029.
Singapore will continue to lead the region in terms of GDP per capita, but the Philippine's per capita will continue to grow.
@@rainieresguerra6519 Wishful thinking for Thailand has out pass Pilipinas since turn back to origin master the USA military bases for their GDP...
@@chriswong9158 Thailand's GDP growth is now less than 3%. It won't be improving anytime soon. IMF has projected that the Philippines will surpass Thailand's economy by 2029.
And that's despite the Philippines veering away from China and moving closer to the US.
This panel discussion should have invited Kishore Mahbubani who has a more hopeful and optimistic view of ASEAN. Richard Heydarian's confrontational stance toward China caters to the American point of view rather than the ASEAN's.
kishore mahbubani are so wrong on many things of different levels in regards to his views on Southeast Asia, ASEAN and the neighboring Countries outside of it.
@@romeocivilino6667They can also invite George Yeo but invited someone who chooses confrontation instead of cooperation view
Heydarian is an academic, mahbubani or yeo are retired diplomats
@@romeocivilino6667 You Can Lead a Horse To Water, But You Can’t Make It Drink.
Kishore Mahbubani, prediction from his writing "Has China Won" past, present has been correct.
One Prediction ASEAN members wishing to join BRICS+, end of PetroDollar & Philippines direction...
@@Yusef-uh4wl Heydarian only talk the talk, Mahbubani and Yeo had walk the walk...
Brilliant from Gita
i didn't waste time on the other
Keren pak Gita 😊
Ever hear of "Talk the Talk, Walk the Walk" Western view of Southeast Asia is to tell them what they need (2 Trillion $$) to build up the needed Electric Power to be a model Country. China offer to Build (Walk) now, not tomorrow via BRI.
China have the manufacturing tools to make it happen and model "China major cities" as show case.
In the end, it is ASEAN member choice, whether want it now or listen to Western Instruction. Philippines choose US.
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😆Filipino, be smart. Don't poke the Dragon. You can get hurt pretty much. US is just making use of you as a suicide squad and not as a QUAD member. Ukraine learnt that in a painful way 😬
China should be smart. It should stop dreaming about grabbing territories and resources belonging to the Philippines and other countries and expect the Philippines to just bow its head and just let China have gets way.
China should look at Russia and see what its future would look like if insists on continuing its expansionist aggression. And China should expect that it will have it worse than Russia, considering that it depends on food, oil, gas and coal imports and is an export-dwpendent economy..
The Philippines is not a pawn of the US. Rather, Marcos Jr is smartly using the hand of the US to block off China's greedy hands.
And look at the result. China, more than the Philippines, is suffering politically and economically as a direct result of China's acrimonious dispute of the Philippines.
With Marcos Jr successfully highlighting China's thuggery and thievery in the SCS, the move by many countries to decouple from China and derisk their supply chain is now accelerating. More and more countries are now considering China as a big bully and an actual threat to peace.
In 2023, China's FDI was only 33B USD. It's property sector crashed. It's stock market is down compared to 15 years ago. It's BRI investment was just 25B USD because of its own internal financial problems. China's GDP growth is down to mud single digits from double digits more than a decade ago.
It is China who should stop its aggressive actions, ditch Wolf Diplomacy, pare down military spending, and stop trying to steal territories belonging to other countries.
Taiwan is the "Ukraine" parallel. Clancy Wong, be smart.
Russia has learned how hard it is to fight even a much smaller and weaker country right at its borders if the US and its allies don't even put boots on the ground but only provide aid in trickles.
China should look hard at what's happening to Russia because its future will look much much worse if it foolishly tries to invade Taiwan..
@@migspeculates Many Westerns politicians don't understand the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is none of their business . It's a Chinese internal
problem. The Chinese don't need advice from external sources.
Richard is lacking in depth whereas Gita has not only more depth but also pragmatism.
Richards a bit simplistic in his comparison btw indo and ph's political dynasty. Not good keep talking abt lack of useless support from other asean,since ph already got lotsa useful support from US,and other asean dont want to side with any great power but understand ph position
Ph is US treaty ally,no one in asean has issues with their full US alignment,so shouldnt ask Asean vocal support agsinst china since USchn rivalry is a bigger issue asean wants to avoid
Different ASEAN countries position themselves differently in the great power divide and in other contentious geopolitical issues, but it is essential to maintain cooperation despite all that. You can see that too with Malaysia and Indonesia taking firm stances on Palestine while others like Thailand keep away from protesting as strongly. In PH's case they are the first ones to have their territorial integrity being encroached upon by China so they have to react the way they do. The rest of ASEAN should emphasize PH's (and Vietnam's) right to voice their concerns the way they do, even if they do not want to confront Chinese interests directly. I could imagine a summit to discuss terms between China and the Philippines being brokered by Indonesia, for example. It is important for countries that position themselves differently in these conflicts to act as a diplomatic bridge between countries that need to position themselves at the extremes.
@@somekindofhmm i dont disagree but hard to predict what would happen in next few years. Conflict could arise at any time in taiwan or east china or ScS warships clash while more and more powers come down to SCS from europe etc. Its a lot safer to wait and see because 1. No solution will come out of claim dispute btw small and big countries no matter how many dialogues you have GIVEN the nature of chinas claim (ill explain later),only international court or war could solve it, 2. The current clash is not exactly scary or that concerning,indo and vietnam had similar clash and it was just another day in office,ph is rather hysterical with asking asean unity when everyone knows the west would help ph in physical altercation and asean support would only result in china being reluctant of advancing CoC with asean
@@michaelmarchal4004 You have the brain and mouth of one apparently, but not sure about the brain part. I think actual Chihuahuas have more sense but the mouth definitely 100% you as well.
@@Yusef-uh4wl Apparently, avoiding an issue will only make it bigger. I understand the need to avoid harmful binaries such as "Are you pro-USA or pro-China" but using "neutrality" as a way to avoid and deflect an incoming catastrophe is geopolitical cowardice. Honestly ASEAN is useless.
It is now evident that the The failure of the Asean to secure a substantive joint statement to address South China Sea disputes at last year’s leaders’ summit and the more recent meeting with Australia this month in Melbourne brought back memories. Similar efforts failed in 2012 and 2016. The consensus decision-making model of the organisation can be a weakness, especially in times of crisis.
Philippines need some awareness without an adequate foundation for developing democracy under their own leadership and with their own resources. If Philippines continued mismanagement, ignoring corruption and failure to enforce needed reforms. Lastly, the so called educated Philippines speaker continued disappointing the Singaporean students.
The Philippines is now the economic growth leader in the ASEAN.
Philippine GDP will surpass that of Singapore in 2027 and will never look back.
Sure, Singapore's GDP per capita will continue to lead the region in the next few decades.
But with its slow economic growth, small and aging population, and small size and lack of natural resources, you should worry about Singapore's future more than the future of the Philippines.
@@rainieresguerra6519 We would do far better to go back to basics?! That means, first of all, remembering why we care about peacebuilding and corruption. We need to avoid reducing those processes to abstract entities, and reifying attributes just so we can count occurrences. We definitely need theory, but not only about whole countries; theories should also sort out how people and groups act and respond in actual situations.
Why are you conflating domestic issues with cross-border issues? China is obviously egging the country since it's the lowest hanging fruit apparently.
@@LanBrian What is your point? You talk abstract while complaining about "reducing processes into abstract entities". Are you invalidating what the Philippines is currently doing for its own national and geopolitical security and interest?
Gita likes to throw out number but not giving rationale to the chosen number,which amounts to missing the big picture,but typical of those social people migrating to tech space. Too many loose connections from electricity consumption to money supply to pisa ranking
What are the specific holes in the points about electricity consumption? I want to know since Gita uses these topics as common themes in his podcast episodes
@@somekindofhmm they are alright taken independently,my gripe is the loose connectionn from one issue to another which is blurring the lines btw causation and correlation
He uses electricity consumption as a measure of development in addition to education, money supply, and English speaking. His point is that more capital in infrastructure and soft skill are needed to bring Indonesia and other Asean to modernity quickly.
Yup.. Excellent point! My feeling as well. I'd say he has a personal interest in the electrification of the region. Two years ago, he owned a substantial share in two big coal companies, haven't checked as of today, but a friend said he sold most of those early this year.
@@wenderis electrification still is a good thing no? Whether it's correct that he's a bit biased towards coal as a short term solution or not, electrification is still important for development (as it enables health care, education, basically everything else). And if he's biased, let's try to counter his points rather than only point out his previous business interests.
Philippines will only learn a hard lesson after losing the confrontation with a super power.
Nice try wumao 😂
China is already learning a hard lesson now. Marcos Jr's strategy of exposing China's thuggery and thievery in the SCS has significantly damaged China's image.
The world is now realising how arrogant, aggressive and dangerous China really is. More and more countries are now decoupling from China and are accelerating their efforts to derisk their supply chain.
In 2023, China's FDI was just 33B Usd, lowest on 30 years. Compared to the US which got 340B Usd in FDI last year. Foreign companies are fleeing from China while foreign investments still flow to the US.
As for the Philippines, FDI is going to grow higher in terms of percentage compared to China.
@@BINI_Maloi_ColetCope and seethe 😂😂😂