Tories face cataclysmic election defeat | Sir John Curtice analysis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ก.ค. 2024
- John Curtice joins John Pienaar on Times Radio, alongside political correspondent Alicia Fitzgerald.
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Worst government of my lifetime.
Oh yes
Too right!!
@@danielking1674 champagne on ice 😃😃😃
Yes and I lived through the Thatcher years!
@@paulburton9386 so did I 👍
Tories desperate
Boris Johnson got an 80 seat majority with only 43% of the vote. I didn’t hear the Tories complaining about that majority 🤷♂️
Thatcher got a 144 majority on the same percentage (no complaints then either)
@@gerardmackay8909Sorry that is completely different.
At no point did Margaret Thatcher or Boris Johnson say they liked having an evening meal with their family!
@@hastekulvaati9681 Friday evening no less. What happens if Putin attacks at 6:01 pm GMT? Either he'll take over our country or Starmer's food will get cold. Either way it's a disgrace.
@@hastekulvaati9681 Thatcher didn’t eat, they just plugged her in at night.
@gerardmackay8909 For four hours apparently
They deserve zero seats
Vote Putin, he knows how to turn things round.
Minus figures and jail…
@user-lo6fd8hn8l yes but your side lost WW2, and will lose this election. Losers to the core!
Not sure which party you mean; but: yes.
No@@user-lo6fd8hn8l
I wonder how these Tories and Tory News Papers would have responded if Jeremy Corbyn had criticised a Conservative Leader for observing their Jewish wife's tradition of a family meal on a Friday evening? Their Hypocrisy is outstanding!
...their hypocrisy is totally standard and on-brand
A couple of months back I watched Schindler's List for the first time, obviously a very powerful film. But..then I was thinking...what if these weren't Jews but tories? In that case I'd wanna be a camp guard
That didn't happen in this video...
And the blame lies squarly with Cameron, Johnson (what a truly vile character, unfit for office), May for being anything but strong and stable and Truss for astonishing incompetence. Good riddance.
You simple can't truss the Tories
You forget Rish!
In retrospect Cameron and May were pretty good.
@@davidsheffied Dodgy Dave Cameron! The most apt name for a fellow I've ever heard of.
To me, if the Tories get anything over 80 seats - especially in the face of competition from Reform Ltd. and tactical voting - that would be a disappointing result indeed.
Libdem official opposition or bust!
The conservative will close to 150 and be the opostion. If that is the case the election was a succes the goal is to remove them. Not destory them. The conservative party does not die. It will come back and likely win again, unless the voting system changes
@@lenabo9929nah
@@martywestywood6004 Each time Labour or Conservative inflict a crushing defeat on the other they Think the other won't recover - and each time the other does. To get us off this see-saw we need PR.
@@carelgoodheir692 I 100% agree, something has got to give, it is a merry-go-round. With PR though, sometimes it leads to inertia??, that said, that may not be a bad thing, as elected government don't really get much achieved, perhaps a handful of decent laws, and the rest is hot air. Interestingly most who still use First Past the Post tend to have it as a result of being former British colonies...
Judgment day is coming…FAST!…not long now…
It sure is, you ready to go to ukraine??
Bot
@@1aatlas why?
@@1aatlasbefore you go to Russia? … oh silly me, you’re already there.
You’re terminated ******!
Tories have been in government for 70% of the last 100 years ... how has that worked out for the average person?
Badly.
Yet somehow they convince people to vote for them .
@@johnburrows3385 Nope, First Past the Post was invented by the Ruling Class to keep the Ruling Class in power. The British Ruling Class imposed First Past the Post right across the British Empire. And there it remains - the ONLY nations that use FPTP apart from the successors to the Empire (ie, the Commonwealth) are Belarus and Tajikistan. It's a GROSSLY UNDEMOCRATIC system, that's why the RULING Class favour it. If the UK changes to some form of PR, then the Tori£s will never, ever return to power. Go figure! 😅
And yet in around 5-10% of that time (on new Labour's watch) almost 30% of current UK population walked in without restriction, from Eastern Europe.
@@federicoprice2687 Not quite true - FPTP was invented BEFORE political parties existed in the 1700s. Back then it took someone more than a day instead of minutes to travel across a local district. Also voting privileges were limited to only the landowners so it was the local rich voting for who among them would by the representative to a national government. They never even thought about anyone else being in power so there was no real attempt to design the system to keep the Ruling Class in power. As voting expanded - first to people who owned business, then workers, and finally to women, the system itself never changed. What we have is a system designed for the world of 1774 still working in 2024.
Less than 48 hours left of the last ever Conservative Government, just rejoice at the news.
I'll take 2 to 1 on them winning most seats in 2029 if you are offering.
They'll be back in 4 years sadly.
They ain't coming back next time. After 1997 they went off on a right wing tangent and practically gifted the 2001 election to Blair. They made a net gain of just ONE seat in what was probably the most pointless election in history. By 2005 they were still off in their right wing tangent and the only reason they gained any seats at all was the Iraq war. The right wing nutters are queueing up to make them unelectable for at least 20 years if not forever.
Loving John Curtis's living room; who knew he was a party monster!
He’s obsessed with parties
I think it's the BBC studios...
Looks like a Spearmint Rhino (according to a friend of mine 😂).
Id rather a part time PM then a corrupt PM
WHO'S THAT .?
I would rather have Nigel Farage instead of them two cons and liebour
He's corrupt as they come.
@cameronnicholson1980 don't be ridiculous
@@jandavies4400 You remember the brexit campaign, at all?
If the tories get zero seats, it'll be too many.
Just last week sunak said kier had a good work life balance.
Did Boris ever promise NOT to drink From Monday AM to Friday at 6PM?
If Truss loses her seat then wow
If a lettuce is contesting her seat, she’s doomed.
Lettuce pray
Breaking news.... Iceberg sinks Truss !
@@richardruff8712 👌
no seats for the Torys that's the way it should and always be
No bad for democracy we don't really have a meaningful alternative opposition at the moment let's see what happens after the election and let's see how the other parties go on not a Libdem supporter but this must be their big chance to make it a proper 3 party Democracy.
@@russellbradley454 I tend to agree with that, but a 2 party opposition with the Torys on the side
The funniest thing about “part time PM” is that finishing work at 6pm is literally the definition of full time
I hope they loose all their seats
What into the wild?
Lose, no spanners needed!
....as a lifetime Tory, you have had long enough to deliver and you haven't
People do not want to be overworked to the point of family collapse and mental health decline. So congratulations for making Starmer more relatable.
The House doesn't even sit most Fridays...
Most MPs put in extremely long hours.
And it is the evenings that he is speaking about, not the whole day!
The Prime Ministers job is not, primarily, done in Parliament. That’s the Leader of the House job.
We've got to look to the future. Well, given that poverty has tripled in 14 years, we can look forward to that tripling again. Poverty has doubled, so we can look forward to that quadrupling in the future. Yes? Or we could have a government for once. How would that be? I hope the Tories lose every single seat. Every last one. I hope the Lib Dems are the opposition and I hope Labour get a massive majority. So that poverty can be reduced. Homelessness can be reduced. The NHS waiting lists can be reduced. You know, the things A GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO.
Not to mention that in absolute terms despite telling us about how much extra the Tories would spend on defence, they fail to mention that they will , after the increased spend, be spending less than they did in absolute terms (far worse in relative terms) when the first of this series of Tory governments were formed in 2010. Pure sophistry.
The 2 that defected to the Tories were both Conservative candidates.
And 30p Lee was also a Conservative, before a Labour member.. now known as 3 party Lee Anderson.
Richi just doesn’t get it, the public just can’t stand him.
He wasn't placed there by accident. People don't think. These things they do to get a reaction from you.
Yes Sunak consistently repeats " I get it" and " Sorry you feel that way" very annoying little man with trousers too short.
However I get it and am not sorry to feel the way I do come GE Tories will get it to. Citizens politely saying F Off
I doubt he's too worried about that. After all, he lives in a completely different world to the rest of us. However, he probably faces a rather awkward conversation with his father in law before he jets off to California.
Thank God for sir John curtice ❤💯👍
Sir JOHN CURTICE another in the long
Line of learned Election specialists on our Television and Radio stations over the last 60 or so years I remember one of the earliest was Robert McKenzie .
Labour need to stop large political donations, scrap the voter identification nonsense, lower the voting age and stop non doms, ex pats and anyone who owes tax from voting. To counter the Tory voter suppression we've seen over recent years .
A perfect communist set if suggestions.
Unfortunately for the Tories there is not only Labour but Reform so Sunak is getting squeezed
Why are Times Radio using the largest headphones known to humanity?
They are Beyerdynamic DT150's. They are standard fayre in broadcast studios
Tory's gone no coming back
Tory/Labour/Lib Dem same controlled corrupt parties. Tories are gone 100% Do you expect change? When "bird flu" or "X" virus comes, you won't have learned a thing, will wear your mask and submit AGAIN, will get poked so you can go on holiday abroad BUT those awful Tories huh... Just wait until Labour lead. Kane you will understand they are all the same.
Tories desperate as they stare into the abyss and the gravy train finally ends for them. Most of them will be lucky to be back bencher next week.
The tories denied it, so it must be true?
They also promised to stop the boats. Is that true?
Its nearly all over folks
TICK TOCK TORIES
@@jasoncooper9391 FLIP FLOP LABOUR
@@sparrow_6177 slippery eel sunak
@@sparrow_6177 Tick Tock Tories 👌
Racist reform
Thank you Sir John.
They started war on poor people
Robin Hood stole from the poor, to give to the rich.. Oh, sorry, wrong way round !
John Pienaar desperately scrambling around for some Tory cope.
His opening statement equating reserving Friday evening for family with being part time was just embarrassing. I honestly can't see anybody seeing not working Friday evening as being a bad thing. Whoever is advising the Conservative on their election strategy is woefully inept at their job even by their own standards.
How can an exporting country - UK - exit from their biggest foreign market - EU - and not realize what a disastrous economic calamity lay in store. Honda left UK because of this. Steel mills shut down. Fishermen are going bankrupt. Poverty. Of course.
Why would the Tories admit scullduggery......that would be honest
Lib Dems for opposition!
Binface for Richmond and Northallerton
you lived through cv19. Government and opposition lied to you. Time to wake up.
Could be right about the first.... A bit of a stretch for Mr. Binface though...!
Stop the tories are saying vote Lib dems in certain constituencies. In areas that labour can't win Stop the Tories are targetting voters to vote lib dem. As a current lib dem member but tactically voting I say do this vote for the 2nd place party and get the tories out and keep them out and teach them a long time lesson.
Has anyone else noticed the antisemitism of attacking Starmer (who has a Jewish wife and children) wanting to celebrate Sabbath as a family?
It can't just be me, surely?
No, because Keir Starmer didn’t give that as the reason and many don’t know that aspect about Keir Starmer
Doubt it as he hasn't mentioned any criticism of Israel - if anyone does, Jewish or not then that is most certainly Anti-Semitic.
NO. Not EVERYTHING is antismiteism
No but I have now seen someone who is not committed to the job
@@bernardgarrett3897 Not committed to the job because he wants to try and spend Friday evenings with his family whenever possible. What a load of nonsense, and the Tory attempt to position it as such shows they are now scraping the bottom of the barrel in a desperate attempt to find anything to attempt to discredit Labour.
It all depends how deeply Reform splits the right wing vote. Farage & Co could end up being a colossal gift to Labour, while winning very few seats for themselves.
Don't talk ridiculous have you seen how many candidates reform have and there popularity is growing at a ridiculous pace have you see there political rallies ..A few seats you need to get out more 😂😂😂😂😂
Quite the alternative in fact !!
The tories can't lose, there is no tory party now.
Curtis been nightclubbing again.
Shocking news! Kier Starmer gives a nuanced answer about being a decent father. What a monster!
YES - tories are not decent fathers.
Good fathers dont let pedos get away scot free.
Shows himself as lazy and not very bright
@@1aatlas Exactly. He goes on about working for the CPS but fails to mention Jimmy Saville doesn't he?
Values like family or tradition are apparently despised by conservatives.
More parroting the Tory line by Times so called journalists
Did the Tories really get Brixit done? I think not. Did they stop the boats and limit immigration in Britain?
Well if labour get in it will be worse immigration and they are talking about being closer to the EU 😂😂😂😂
Oh happy days , I'll dance in the street Friday when this shower are signing on universal credit
Shouldn't be a surprise, they,ve been hopeless for 14 years.Starmer looking a very capable leader.
Great news can't wait for Labour on Friday.
You might regret what you wished for 😂😂😂😂
No I don't read the daily mail .
Wrong it was not misinterpreted - it was a deliberate and callus desperate attack for a sound bite. Ps I’m not a labour supporter but - please be honest about this ridiculous non-story!
Health Monister Maria Cauldfield said bold.y that Starmer said he would be working a 4-day week. If you are do desperate you have to make up such whoppers, as with the repeated lie about the £2,000 tax increase, then you shouldn’t be in politics as you clearly don’t have anything bettered to do. Absolutely disgraceful.
The Tories blew it.Big time.😮
Mr Sunak, Please turn off the light & Don't let the door hit you on THE WAY OUT!!!
Normally it would be irrelevant whether Starmer’s wife is Jewish or vegetarian, but this does explain his pro-Israel stamce!
Sigh! you couldn’t wait to get that dig in could you
The Tories can't offer a safe seat to anybody!
the last time the British electorate were given the chance to vote for a "Nigel Farge" proposed policy it was brexit , that was the largest electoral turn out in modern history . given that reform/Nigel's party now has a whole range of positive policies and a patriotic outlook if those 17.5 million brexit voters back him again the keys to number 10 could be closer then we are being told ? only mr brexit himself can deliver the brexit we voted for
If you don't want an NHS and want to see Truss on steroids economics, then vote Reform. You'll certainly see mortgage rates rocket. Farage lied about Brexit and you are quite happy to take in more lies.
Asking for PR?
Get stuffed.
"Patriotic outlook" LOL.
A euphemism for a party full of "racist, misogynistic and bigoted people" to quote the Reform candidate for West Ham and Beckton.
No matter what the Tories say now, it's over for them. Their 14 years in power has brought us nothing but despair, and death. The deaths of the vulnerable under them, through Tory DWP sanctions ,will never be forgotten nor forgiven. The illegal parties during lockdown, with them laughing, joking and swigging wine, whilst telling us all to isolate [ and whilst our loved ones died isolated and alone], will never be forgotten nor forgiven. Homelessness under them will never be forgiven. The creation of foodbanks under them,, will never be forgiven. The horrific Universal Credit and PIP which has caused so many deaths under them, we will never forgive them for that. Lowest state pension in Europe under them, will never be forgiven. Hospital waiting lists under them will never be forgiven. They have literally destroyed our country and destroyed innocent lives.
Absolutely, it started with a vicious and unnecessary program of ideologically based austerity.
You are correct, but never forget Blair started it!
@@dave710. Think we all know who started it... Begins with a T and ends with a Y.
Or starts with a C and ends with an E all adds up Tories F OFF.
Mortality now is better, lower, than 14 years ago.
@dave710 Blair started a limited austerity, always designed for the relatively short term . The Tories continued it with ideological zeal.
It's laughable that the Tories keep on accusing labour for all the damage they already done 😅
The Tories: A re-enactment of the 'Charge of the Light Brigade'.
Not a good comparison. The leadership in the Crimea was poor but the majority of the followers were honourable and brave - those epithets do not apply to very many in the outgoing parliamentary party.
How about this :- The Tories : Lemmings falling over the cliff, at last....
Oh. Let's hope so
Lies are not a new idea for the Tories!!!!
They broke the country 😔
Wait till labour get in you will really see a broken britain go to Ashton Rayners constuancy see for yourself that is broken Britain under her watch 😂😂😂😂😂
I took a long hard look at Rishi Sunak, and two seconds later, remembering the D-Day snub, knew I would not be voting Conservative.
Here we go "conspiracy theories from Reform" yep still voting Reform 🗳 👍🏻
Already booked a leave on the 5th to watch the Tory debacle on election night! 😍😍😍
Vote Reform!
Haha happy days
Champagne on ice 😂😂😂😂😂
14 years of Tory Failure
More foodbanks than McDonald's Disgusting
Be prepared for a shock result
😅
A shock to the lamestream media. Not to the rest of us.
Tory’s 50, labour 350, Reform the rest.
@@tradwifeuk2117Reform nothing.
@@tradwifeuk2117 Not even a 1% chance of that - Reform will be lucky to get 10 seats, if that many, while Labour will get at least 385, maybe well over 425. You are the one who will be in shock come July 5th.
@@gregorybiestek3431 And you will be in shock when the dust settles and you realise the horror show you have voted in 😮
Every time John Pienaar grunts in agreement with Sir John Curtice he cuts off John Curtice! Its John Curtice we need to hear not Pienaar's grunts!
I'm leaving the UK anyway. Can't take any more of this country.
Bye
If the Tories win I am going but it certainly looks like I'm staying.
Yes this far right wing from Reform and the Tories is divisive and dangerous also full of hate and anger.
Sad that you have to leave your country as many have prior to you. I wish you well. UK is grave indeed.
But there's Racists in the Tories
Labour too. Diane Abbott hates white people. One rule for one.........
Amazing who would have thought that.
And in Labour. But they're racist against whites and Js so that's okay...
More in Labour.
@@dave710 I made the same comment, but youtube deleted it.
That thing about candidates using crude language, nobody on the realist right would be so foolish as to burt out crude remarks, to later be held hostage to ?
Sometimes, New Man might say something to ingratiate himself, but he will be immediately corrected (& his cards marked as a loose cannon)
Finding ways to exclude British men in Britain is a cruel business
Shame on You
Well if the Tories have denied it, it must be true! Honestly, how dense is this presenter. The scale of dishonesty from the Tories alone, should mean we don't believe a word they say. This lady is clearly biased towards the Tory party.
Lib Dems for opposition!
Binface for Richmond and Northallerton!
Good call!
God help us if that's the case.
They basically agree with each other, how can they be the opposition?
Lib dems wont be oppostion they would have to win close to 100 seats for that
I wish Binface would stand down (only this time) as Sunaks seat is close a couple of hundred votes might make a difference
You me A REFORM !?
Reform will get 50 seats
Wht is so annoying I am away from Thurs untill Monday afternoon at a drunken festival in a bad broadband reception area another broken tory promise so missing times radio 100 hours of election coverage But rest assured I will have my trusty anorak with me😊😊😊😊😊
Was Sir John hanging out on the dance floor of a night club, waiting for opening time ? …
Is he in a fish tank?
I wondered what had become of Max Headroom. 😊
Surely Johnson was a part-time PM and it's the Tories who tend to be part-time MPs: N Dorris, L Truss etc....?
Tories hoping public memories are short and selective.
Lets make sure Tories get NO SEATs!!! Its time for Karma!!!!!! Vote Labour🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹
Vote tactically; stop the Tories dot vote
And get what? A no borders socialist outfit that has its hand in the nation's collective pocket and has no real regard
for the concept of "nation state" or what the words stand for in the minds of people who voted for it and obtained
Brexit. Time for reform in politics. Time for Reform UK in Parliament.
Vote Reform
REFORM REFORM REFORM 🇬🇧 🏴 👏
@@robb8985shame on anyone that votes for ‘reform’ fascists; our forefathers gave so much to defeat fascism. Oswald Moseley would be pleased with you.
They wanted to make history. Now they ARE history. 👍🤔( "Green Fire" UK ) 🌈🦉
Was Sir John in a nightclub already celebrating 🎉?
Notice how none of the tv station talk about REFORM...Lol Reform will become a new opposition!
Not actually "cataclysmic", but the outcome might have been milder if they had left earlier. When you're in power, you are "alone against everyone", and in opposition it's easier to find a companion "going the same direction". So Conservative will be able to win back supporters in the coming years if they focus primarily not on fighting Labour, but on working on their own ideas
Vote reform
All the Election Ballots boxes must be under CCTV . Extra security personnel ( only White Skins) must accompany from Voting point, transportation point To counting points.
Have you bought your black boots, brown shirt, and tiki torch yet?
The Conservatives adopted unnecessary austerity, a UKIP / Reform - lite attitude and backed Brexit. This will take generations to forgive.
The Conservatives will never be forgiven for Betraying Brexit and not delivering it properly, despite being given an 80 seat majority to deliver it. I would be surprised if they ever recover, like the Whig party 100 years ago , they are finished and are being replaced by REFORM !
We had to go into austerity because the previous labour government bankrupted the economy. Dont u remember?
@@Extreme2SwaggerHD Labour had to react to the banks being shorted (Mr Sunak made his dosh doing that).
Austerity did not need to be so strict as to wreck the economy...
14 years of ukippy Cons later and the debt has doubled and the economy has not grown in real terms...it has contracted.
With brexit compunding everything, GB is doomed.
Are you a Con party candidate perhaps?
I will definitely be voting. The Polling Station is in the pub opposite my house. My only regret is that I won't find representatives of all the parties offering me drinks or lunch to vote for them - I think we should get back to the good old days before secret ballots which meant people wouldn't offer bribes because they didn't know if those they had bribed had stayed bribed.
Tories out by any way. Please, it can't be any worse.
Imagine a Parliament of Sir John Curtice's....just close your eyes.
Served them right for ignoring the members and voting themselves
The Tories haven't been affective for the last 14 IN Government, forget opposition. Zero Seats!
So the day before polls open Sir John Curtis goes to a 1970s nightclub!
I guess Times Radio take the Conservative response at their word. Let's see what happens when the full story comes out.
It's not over until it's over. Labour voters may stay home if they believe it's already in the bag. Then you have Reform voters who may switch to the Tories at the last moment in the name of loyalty. It certainly won't be the wipeout that everyone is predicting.
Hang on to your hats! We're in for a bumpy ride.
Apart from the simple fact that the Tories are currently deeply unpopular, there are a few things about this election that we have not seen before that could massively affect the outcome:
1. The sudden rise of Reform could take away Tory votes in areas where they have previously been strong, thus allowing Labour or the LibDems to gain seats by the back door.
2. The possibility of widespread tactical voting in Tory held seats.
3. The Tory lurch to the right plus Labour's move to the centre resulting in many disaffected 'centrist' Tories becoming more comfortable about switching to Labour.
4. The possible collapse of the SNP vote.
5. Disaffected traditional Tory voters just choosing to stay at home.
None of the above are good for the Tories.
useless tories cant even attack right. inept, ineffective and not even in opposition in a couple of days.
Sorry but these polls are out of day now. They don’t factor in FridayNightDinnerGate.
The British people will never forgive Starmer for wanting to spend time with his family.