No doubts Reits provide stable dividend . There is a limit of higher capital gain . Last thur , my wife n i bought some DBS at $30.92 ( cpf n cash) . Also standby to buy more when correction from Aug-OCT.
Unfortunately I beg to differ REITs will do well in the 1 year time frame. This is mainly because interest component is about 25% - 40% of their operating cashflow. While the rate hike cycle seems to be ending, I cannot see why rates will go back down in a year time. Over this 1 year period REITs will have their interest component further increase due to refinancing of expiring debt at a much higher rate. This can only be partly offset by higher rental income due to positive rental reversion (any manager will be happy to get 10% reversion and if you take 25% expiring rent you are really only looking at a 2.5% boost to rental income). In short DPU will compress for most REITs in 1 year. However I believe REITs will survive and thrive in a 3 year time frame if interest rate stabilise. Continuous positive rental reversion (due to higher replacement cost) will catch up to the higher interest cost. The will enable DPU to expand again. Also vested in some REITs in my SRS but have diversify into other decent companies while waiting for REITs to recover.
Hey, no probs... IMO A lot of times the headline is on rate hike cycle which is near term. We are at an inverted yield curve now where long term rates may not rise or may actually start to decline. Refinancing for 5y debt follows the longer curve than the overnight rates
@@joshconsultancy Just curious have you encountered any of your clients getting lower rates for longer term loans? I have not personally seen long rates to be lower from financial institution whether is it for personal or business use. It is likely that the inverted yield curve and specifically long term rates only benefits central banks and not anyone else.
Need to understand some reits have their existing loans locked in 2 to 3 years ago before interest rate starts increasing and majority of their loans will start to mature from next year onwards and they will have to refinance at higher interest rate. Hence, whatever is the dividend yield now may start to decline and affect the share price going forward.
That is a broad view. Perhaps better to narrow to each individual reit coz some reits have a lot maturing in 2023/2024 and are facing a cliff while some other reits are majority maturity after 2025.
Oh...I personally think they recovered the earliest unlike malls in the city. Also, tiong bahru plaza seems lousier now to me vs when Asia malls managed it. Personal opinion
Sorry, but I have different opinion from you. I think the FEB stop raise interest rate is due to US government issue bond to remove the liquid money off the system. It have the same effect to reduce inflation. In order not to over stretch the banks, therefore maintain the interest rate as of now.. I believe, FEB will raise interest rate again in 2nd half this year.
Your concern should be more of how long FED maintain the high interest rate level rather than if they will hike two more times. The subsequent two interest rates hikes are already partially priced in for most assets. It would a significant change in interest rate trajectory to significantly affect the current REIT prices. It's more likely that the FED keep it this high over a longer than expected period, without cutting even if recession kicks in. It could take sustained recession or a black swan for them to consider cutting prematurely. "I believe, FEB will raise interest rate again in 2nd half this year." In this case, how would you have otherwise done/maintain/invest?
Can you advise which broker that has NO minimum processing/brokerage fee so that we can buy small quantity at a time, like buying 2000, 3000 shares etc? Thanks.
Hi, video is sponsored by Moo moo, although out of courtesy I should mention them but they do have this NO brokerage charge now and only platform fee. In total possibly the cheapest Clearance fee that is charged by SGX if for singapore stocks. Hope it helps and Use referral link k www.moomoo.com/en-sg/act/welcome?channel=1002&subchannel=233
are you able to do a video of a hypothetical example comparing using 280k to buy sg reits vs 280k to buy a 1 million resale condo for pure rental play. i would like to find out which is more worthwhile. Thank you.
Unfortunately, that comparison will have a lot of assumptions to sway it either way. Which reit, which resale condo... Assumptions on buying price... And more crucially that is past performance. Hope it answers
@@joshconsultancy if that is the case...how does one able to able to tell sg reits is the preferred choice over sg property going forward or there isn't any straightforward answer. it is a game of chance?
Hi Josh, did you consider two more interest rate hike by FAB in coming months? My feeling is NOT to BUY REIT now as interest rate hikes are still looming.
@@joshconsultancy I plan to invest in REIT when I see Feb starts their rate cut, perhaps end of next year. It's a sticky inflation, as they said. Hopefully mid of next year Feb starts to cut 0.25 interest rate. I'll definitely see this video again and buy in REIT by than. Now it may fall further in the counter cost.
Had this a year plus back - IS CDL (CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD) A BUY NOW 🤔? BONUS COMPARISON AGAINST HO BEE LAND LIMTED th-cam.com/video/7ARnGOSY2FA/w-d-xo.html
Reits prices have collapsed 10% in last 1 month. Property valuation drop and high interest cost, plus poor economic outlook will weigh reits down. I expect leverage ratio will edge up with lower property valuation, and higher refinancing costs.
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No doubts Reits provide stable dividend . There is a limit of higher capital gain . Last thur , my wife n i bought some DBS at $30.92 ( cpf n cash) . Also standby to buy more when correction from Aug-OCT.
Can you make a video on all the tools, websites, etc. you’re using for all your researches ?
Stay tuned =)
Unfortunately I beg to differ REITs will do well in the 1 year time frame. This is mainly because interest component is about 25% - 40% of their operating cashflow. While the rate hike cycle seems to be ending, I cannot see why rates will go back down in a year time. Over this 1 year period REITs will have their interest component further increase due to refinancing of expiring debt at a much higher rate. This can only be partly offset by higher rental income due to positive rental reversion (any manager will be happy to get 10% reversion and if you take 25% expiring rent you are really only looking at a 2.5% boost to rental income). In short DPU will compress for most REITs in 1 year.
However I believe REITs will survive and thrive in a 3 year time frame if interest rate stabilise. Continuous positive rental reversion (due to higher replacement cost) will catch up to the higher interest cost. The will enable DPU to expand again. Also vested in some REITs in my SRS but have diversify into other decent companies while waiting for REITs to recover.
Hey, no probs...
IMO A lot of times the headline is on rate hike cycle which is near term. We are at an inverted yield curve now where long term rates may not rise or may actually start to decline. Refinancing for 5y debt follows the longer curve than the overnight rates
@@joshconsultancy Just curious have you encountered any of your clients getting lower rates for longer term loans?
I have not personally seen long rates to be lower from financial institution whether is it for personal or business use.
It is likely that the inverted yield curve and specifically long term rates only benefits central banks and not anyone else.
Looking forward to ur Mapple tree updates
Its a hard few weeks, hang on and stay tuned =)
Need to understand some reits have their existing loans locked in 2 to 3 years ago before interest rate starts increasing and majority of their loans will start to mature from next year onwards and they will have to refinance at higher interest rate. Hence, whatever is the dividend yield now may start to decline and affect the share price going forward.
That is a broad view. Perhaps better to narrow to each individual reit coz some reits have a lot maturing in 2023/2024 and are facing a cliff while some other reits are majority maturity after 2025.
Those with high debt might be in trouble ...and maybe cannot get Financing ...
hi what do you think about syfe?
Yes ive tutorials on it for SYFE REIT+
Diversified approach. Use referral code k ASTUTEPARENT
Great info as always!
Thank you for the high praise =)
What about Fraser Centrepoint? Given their headlock on heartland malls?
Oh...I personally think they recovered the earliest unlike malls in the city.
Also, tiong bahru plaza seems lousier now to me vs when Asia malls managed it. Personal opinion
Sorry, but I have different opinion from you. I think the FEB stop raise interest rate is due to US government issue bond to remove the liquid money off the system. It have the same effect to reduce inflation. In order not to over stretch the banks, therefore maintain the interest rate as of now.. I believe, FEB will raise interest rate again in 2nd half this year.
No prob, you can have a view too
Your concern should be more of how long FED maintain the high interest rate level rather than if they will hike two more times. The subsequent two interest rates hikes are already partially priced in for most assets. It would a significant change in interest rate trajectory to significantly affect the current REIT prices. It's more likely that the FED keep it this high over a longer than expected period, without cutting even if recession kicks in. It could take sustained recession or a black swan for them to consider cutting prematurely. "I believe, FEB will raise interest rate again in 2nd half this year." In this case, how would you have otherwise done/maintain/invest?
@@jamesl2590
Too many uncertainties to estimate whether FEB will continue to maintain or raise after this year..
@@jamesl2590ssb, sgs, tbills lor😊
What is your US stock strategy?
US stocks are broad. There are other sectors including big oil.
S&P500 is very big tech heavy.
Tot you had Suntec reits? At 1.3ish still good to hold?
Will be doing an update on it, stay tuned =)
Do a comparison ....
Can you advise which broker that has NO minimum processing/brokerage fee so that we can buy small quantity at a time, like buying 2000, 3000 shares etc? Thanks.
Hi, video is sponsored by Moo moo, although out of courtesy I should mention them but they do have this NO brokerage charge now and only platform fee. In total possibly the cheapest
Clearance fee that is charged by SGX if for singapore stocks. Hope it helps and
Use referral link k www.moomoo.com/en-sg/act/welcome?channel=1002&subchannel=233
are you able to do a video of a hypothetical example comparing using 280k to buy sg reits vs 280k to buy a 1 million resale condo for pure rental play. i would like to find out which is more worthwhile. Thank you.
Unfortunately, that comparison will have a lot of assumptions to sway it either way.
Which reit, which resale condo...
Assumptions on buying price...
And more crucially that is past performance. Hope it answers
@@joshconsultancy if that is the case...how does one able to able to tell sg reits is the preferred choice over sg property going forward or there isn't any straightforward answer. it is a game of chance?
Hi your view on esr logos reit
Ah I’m not a fan. Mapletree logistics appeals more to me as a comparison
Thoughts on AA reit and ireit global?
Personally prefer MLT over AA
Ireit raised money recently. Not too familiar w it. What are your findings?
how about ascendas reit?
Not bad also 👌🏻👍
Hi Josh, did you consider two more interest rate hike by FAB in coming months? My feeling is NOT to BUY REIT now as interest rate hikes are still looming.
Of coz I’m aware of expectations. What id advocate is to look past it. Warren Buffett has taught before to ignore interest rate noise
@@joshconsultancy I plan to invest in REIT when I see Feb starts their rate cut, perhaps end of next year. It's a sticky inflation, as they said. Hopefully mid of next year Feb starts to cut 0.25 interest rate. I'll definitely see this video again and buy in REIT by than. Now it may fall further in the counter cost.
J tan, would u like to cover citydev share thanks
Had this a year plus back - IS CDL (CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD) A BUY NOW 🤔? BONUS COMPARISON AGAINST HO BEE LAND LIMTED th-cam.com/video/7ARnGOSY2FA/w-d-xo.html
MPACT and ME8U holder here😊
✋🏻✋🏻
I agree SG Reits is good now, the Reits ETF are pretty much at bottom prices if ignoring covid plunge, which is pretty good.
🖐
Any thoughts on reits etf?
Syfe reit plus will be better
Sharing done here th-cam.com/video/afJyEwFoFfk/w-d-xo.html
why moomoo not giving free Sreits shares?😅
Lol I actually dunno the answer too.
Gut feeling it may be more legal reason than marketing since no one gives free sg shares
2H 2022 was a great time to accumulate REITs. 😊
Window still open =)
💯 v well-researched...
Thank you for the high praise
Reits prices have collapsed 10% in last 1 month. Property valuation drop and high interest cost, plus poor economic outlook will weigh reits down. I expect leverage ratio will edge up with lower property valuation, and higher refinancing costs.
Yes and Ive more angles on how to interpret that. Stay tuned
Not optimistic on Maple Tree industrial Trust for now. 50% aum in US seems too much on high side.
View noted
While Fed leaves rates spike now, that doesn’t mean interest rate will start to moves south. So, SReits will still face higher interest cost. Agree?
Increasing interest cost is the reason it is depressed now.
Hence, diving deeper into each reits books on their capital management becomes key
I willl avoid manulife for now
Oh yes, I’ve a video on it previously and it aged well
Ascott is good
so far so good =)
Like first !
Big thank you :)
@@joshconsultancythanks Josh! I learn so much about sreit from you!
@@3xonly Happy to hear that. Heads up, look out for JOSH TAN FINANCE SUMMIT 2024 coming year end...👍
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Thanks Connie!
1.
Big thank you Roland =)
NO.
YES.
@alpha12th
0 seconds ago
How about Capland India Trust (CY6U) ??
DPU still fluctuates alot. Last time was due to FX.
Havent tracked recently. What are key parts of it that you like?