Hi Josh thanks for sharing. My predicament for Mpact is similar to you . I have 40k shares at $1.40. Sitting on paper loss 8k. My plan is to collect dividends ($3200) yearly for next 2-3 years to offset the paper loss. Hopefully by then with possible lower interest rate environment there could be capital appreciation of the share price before I consider selling off. In anyway I am happy to hold for longer term as long as they still pay dividends . The longer we hold dividend REITs the more we gain . Cheers
The reason why I watch your video is you normally do critical analysis on the individual stock on their good and bad unlike other TH-camr whom keep on asking you to buy, don't be a donki without much analysis (or just reading the statement alone). For your cut losses, I have already predict some may not did well as those depends on discretionary more. However, would like to comment that sometimes investment need to think of longer term instead of such short team such as how the product will impact the future (e.g AI)
First time watching, thanks for sharing.. one potential issue is that while tourist arrivals have recovered, the tourist profile has changed. For instance I believe there was higher spend on experiences via concerts such as Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, while spending at retail and casinos could be more muted. One telling sign is mid tier luxury brands (e.g. Kering) are under-performing globally, and michelin star restaurants are cutting back.
You should walk the ground. I visit Sentosa for a few time from last two years and this years. All I can see is RWS is undergoing major renovations or attraction renewal. This have being on going for 2 years. I just visit last week and see that many of the construction is above to complete
Thanks for yr sharing. When you balance your portfolio, would you incurred lots of commission cost? It's such huge amount to let go all together. How to keep such cost low.
my portfolio has only TBs, SSBs, Banks, Retail Reits, Pty Stock (w P/B 0.3), etc Enough to generate for retirement expenditure & reinvesting into the portfolios. Mpact is a loss YTD but am buying at 120-125c to average down & dividend yield
The only share in Singapore that you can buy is DBS … nothing else…. I have learned that in my 30+ years’ experience…. Please note that I have played many shares in Singapore in my lifetime…. I have switched to US equities a few years ago….. profiting from DBS …. Had not looked back to Singapore stocks any longer …..
In my view, it is shortsighted to exit MPACT. Reits will divest if their assets are not doing well - it is their job to do so. With interest rates going down, there will be more upside. Remember that your stock portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more you touch, the smaller it will get. Good luck! Disclaimer: I do not own any N2IU. this is also not financial advice
pov noted. Agree stock portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more you touch, the smaller it will get but also pruning must be done with careful consideration
Josh tan kor kor, i think its good to look at relative fundamentals like pe pb ratios, over 3 years i gained 5% annualized and most of my investments are in avarga, tat seng packaging , ireit global,spindex, most are in eu or china and beating their index benchmarks, i have a video with my spreadsheet to calculate fair values
@joshconsultancy yes but I calculated the fair value of bumitama to be 0.875 sgd, even lower when I use bond yield of indonesia 20 year bond to calculate... so I sold it at 0.875, no regrets though
I was like you investing in some of these Singapore branded companies thinking it can’t go wrong. You have a substantial amount invested in many of these companies which in my opinion not investable. If you put the same amount in our three Singapore banks and also SnP500 ETF. Your entire portfolio would have grown substantially and sustainably. That is a easy path. Of course you can challenge yourself to beat the SnP 500 by selecting quality companies to invest in(you can’t find them in Spore stock exchange unfortunately). I learned from my past mistakes by confining my investment in our local stock market. You shouldn’t. Your money must be deployed in the best companies in the world so that they can grow over time. Cast your sight further
Do a study on Avarga. Asset more than debt. Chairman now trying to take it private. Getting an Independent company Xanders to do valuation. Might be a play if entry is at 0.25 or more and one eventually believes the share is & will eventually be priced higher.
I recently bought that stock at 0.21 , you can't buy it anymore because it's a mandatory cash offer meaning they will buy your stocks regardless of whether you want to hold or sell
Is ok to cut loss than let sentiment overtake your logic investment. Good luck! There are some fellows who continue to hang on to wrong investments and do not want to admit it. Worse when followers followed blindly.
Frankly, a lot of sg finfluencers bias and tunnel myopic vision whenever china is involved will bite you as most are over optimistic and just completely ignore the false narrative of how liquid and elastic china consumers are on spending and the impact of the struggling domestic consumption of China since Covid. Unfortunately, this includes trusted and no-hype creators like Josh.
Hi Josh. I guessed you only thinking to enter propnex at a much later date? Since from your earlier videos, you seemed to imply that we are in an exuberant stage of the property cycle. Just to pick your brain a little. Tks
Hi Josh. Tks for reply. Just a few points to ponder over too. agencies like propnex and apac commissions are affected by: 1) sales volumes 2) commission per case. And a bigger chunk of their commissions come from new launches rather than resale segment. So to determine whether agencies can increase their revenue, we can simply focus on just the new launches part, and one can look at a few factors: a) number of new launches moving forward b) expected trajectory of economy in the near term because if market slower, developers may delay launching and/or bid for land parcels c) commission developers give to agencies (slow market tend to give more, and this part is hard to gauge though). So if one is expecting a slower economy and looking at recent land bids, number of expected launches will be low in volume, then one can expect the revenue to be negatively impacted. Converse applies. Hence, we can see from above that agencies are in a very cyclical business, and won’t be suitable to buy and hold long term. So may be a good idea to buy when earnings are low and hence very prices are depressed and sell out when the reverse happens. Food for thought!
Thank you for the high praise. Think over time we can filter in china those who have growth. Popmart, Trip, Tencent, CN banks are actually growing profits well
The greatness in your performance not comes from what you buy, but what you exclude. From Howard Marks I recently also cut a 30% loss on TMF treasury yield. Was hoping that the treasury yield drop with fed cut rates. But inflation is sticky.. and i think its a good time to cut loss and redeploy to other good stocks like google, and adobe to capture on the opportunity instead
I bite the bullet and quickly sold 1/3 of my investments after Trump won , as my investments were geared towards Harris win. To date from the prices, i'm very glad i bite the bullet. Sometimes you just have to take the hard decisions.
Genting is losing money ...and it is wise to cut ... It is getting diffcult to operate in singapore due to high cost ..and i rather go genting malaysia which is more enjoyable
China is in a 1939 style depression Evident by the numbers of Genting Singapore Numbers published by the central govt should be taken with a bag of salt 😂😂😂😂
Not gambling. Its pride in ownership Some will lose and some will outperform Broad base is a faceless ownership of a basket but having said that I do advocate too that its better to spread the risk😊
I understand ur expertise in retail assessment. I work in the finance sector, I’ve a ton of grievances about how it’s slow and stifling. Sometimes where we work could also be why we can’t recognize the good parts 👌🏻
Better sell all your stocks before the big crash comes. US stock market which is overly priced in a huge bubble will crash and all other stocks markets will follow perhaps to a lesser extent but still crash too. So better sell all stocks before it becomes only 30% worth left.
Comforts latest results show gradual eps recovery. Grab not taking more market share from it alr. May no longer be a $3 stock but seems ok at current price imo
True investor knows when to cut losss as most of us will just hold and hope. If you have other target to invest, then its good to re-deploy your cash. Good for you on your courage to cut loss.💪 Myself still hold some lost making local stocks that drop so much till I can't be bother with it anymore. Currently i am monitoring more on cryptos.😊
@joshconsultancy yes..will monitor for these few months and sell before it bust again. Then got to wait for next 4 yr cycle. 😁 Next year will be more unpredictable with Trump + Musk....
Appreciate the transparency and honesty 👍
Thank you Jason🙏🏻
Hi Josh thanks for sharing. My predicament for Mpact is similar to you . I have 40k shares at $1.40. Sitting on paper loss 8k. My plan is to collect dividends ($3200) yearly for next 2-3 years to offset the paper loss. Hopefully by then with possible lower interest rate environment there could be capital appreciation of the share price before I consider selling off. In anyway I am happy to hold for longer term as long as they still pay dividends . The longer we hold dividend REITs the more we gain . Cheers
No probs. I’d be keeping tabs on them. One day when the japan offices and festival walk no longer drags the profitability revalue it again :)
Given like for the transparency. Hope we can all do better next year.
Better year ahead! 👏🙂
The reason why I watch your video is you normally do critical analysis on the individual stock on their good and bad unlike other TH-camr whom keep on asking you to buy, don't be a donki without much analysis (or just reading the statement alone). For your cut losses, I have already predict some may not did well as those depends on discretionary more. However, would like to comment that sometimes investment need to think of longer term instead of such short team such as how the product will impact the future (e.g AI)
Thank you Josh for presenting your cut loss rationale and change in view. It is sound. Cutting loss is a very brave skill.
🙏
Successful investing is to be humble enough to recognize errors
not easy to cut loss and even made a video for sharing... kudos...
🙏hope it has useful points
Appreciate the honesty!
Speaking of First Resources, i spoke to the mother of the family years ago when my business was servicing one of their GCB
I think losses is part and parcel of investment. But I think the really big mistake is one of omission given the quality of the local banks.
First time watching, thanks for sharing.. one potential issue is that while tourist arrivals have recovered, the tourist profile has changed. For instance I believe there was higher spend on experiences via concerts such as Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, while spending at retail and casinos could be more muted. One telling sign is mid tier luxury brands (e.g. Kering) are under-performing globally, and michelin star restaurants are cutting back.
Good point!
I am buying more into Mpact... i hope it goes lower for me to DCA ... and buy more.. holding for long term...
No probs, pov noted
if its purely dividend play, that's fine. however the upside DCA or not, will be low
Yes... Buy buy buy as the dividends is getting more juicy now 😊
Appreciate the sharing of your investments!
Nothing to be ashame when cutting losses as long as you can make more later on
Why would you sell Mapletree Pan Asia at support?
Investment fundamentals decision👌🏻
We learn more from our failures. Lovely video and a POV you don't often see from content creators.
Thank you for the kind words 🙏
Thanks for sharing & Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Merry Christmas too!
You should walk the ground. I visit Sentosa for a few time from last two years and this years. All I can see is RWS is undergoing major renovations or attraction renewal. This have being on going for 2 years. I just visit last week and see that many of the construction is above to complete
Aware of the major renovations and reinvestment into the RWS2.0
Thanks for yr sharing. When you balance your portfolio, would you incurred lots of commission cost? It's such huge amount to let go all together. How to keep such cost low.
The position allocation is more important than the cost of changes.
Each trade, i do make sure its at least $6k worth each time
Fab work! V useful indeed
Great content Josh. Agreed sometimes we need to take losses and move on! What about CICT, i still holding on at a small paper losses though
I think CICT is well positioned, there was even growth in last results =)
Thanks for the honest sharing and video.
Thank you for the support
Good report, IMO you should put some portion of your investment to US market
my portfolio has only TBs, SSBs, Banks, Retail Reits, Pty Stock (w P/B 0.3), etc Enough to generate for retirement expenditure & reinvesting into the portfolios. Mpact is a loss YTD but am buying at 120-125c to average down & dividend yield
No probs pov noted
The only share in Singapore that you can buy is DBS … nothing else…. I have learned that in my 30+ years’ experience…. Please note that I have played many shares in Singapore in my lifetime…. I have switched to US equities a few years ago….. profiting from DBS …. Had not looked back to Singapore stocks any longer …..
STI best performer might be yangzijiang or sembcorp actually
Thanks for the share
Thank you also for the support
overall positive ?
Positive. Definitely. Markets are kind this year
@@joshconsultancy good already positive better than most already
Thanks for sharing Josh, wish you all the best!
Thank you Chris 🙏
Hi Josh, is OLAM grp stable? Buy? Thanks
Olam is a tricky company to analyse. Years ago it had that short seller report
hey Josh, making mistakes r normal, we all learn this way, mature audience will not mock u for this, those who does r not worth your time!
Usual big money tactic is to push price down and then privatise. ;)
Genting and MPACT don’t smell so.
Candid is the best policy. Thanks for sharing 👍
👍🙏
Pls pay more attention to international stock … local super narrow 😢
There are winners from local also 👌🏻 no worries
Hi Josh, thanks for the sharing. May I know why you chose Lim&Tan over the other local brokers? Thanks
They gave me an internship chance 20yo :)
@@joshconsultancy Heh, understood 饮水思源 不能忘本 :)
Sayang to cut at support level. I am betting on S Reits double bagging by end 2025.
Yes, stay optimistic! =)
In my view, it is shortsighted to exit MPACT. Reits will divest if their assets are not doing well - it is their job to do so. With interest rates going down, there will be more upside. Remember that your stock portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more you touch, the smaller it will get. Good luck!
Disclaimer: I do not own any N2IU. this is also not financial advice
pov noted.
Agree stock portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more you touch, the smaller it will get but also pruning must be done with careful consideration
Josh is sgx bull and 1m65 say sgx is super terrible index haha. To each their own but I hold 40-40-20 USA/reits/ssb respectively
Josh tan kor kor, i think its good to look at relative fundamentals like pe pb ratios, over 3 years i gained 5% annualized and most of my investments are in avarga, tat seng packaging , ireit global,spindex, most are in eu or china and beating their index benchmarks, i have a video with my spreadsheet to calculate fair values
Speaking of which I just sold bumitama agri after you buy
Bumitama has been the best agri stock 👍
@joshconsultancy yes but I calculated the fair value of bumitama to be 0.875 sgd, even lower when I use bond yield of indonesia 20 year bond to calculate... so I sold it at 0.875, no regrets though
@joshconsultancy however , my winrate is only 63.54% over 3 years so I can't advise anyone on what to invest in, how long have you been invested?
Should buy high quality stocks with cash flow wide ecomonic mode inctrase every yr
Mapletree Industrial Trust 👍 Why? Zero exposure to China.
I quite surprised that you do not have dbs in your portfolio
I’ve shared before on why 👌🏻
I was like you investing in some of these Singapore branded companies thinking it can’t go wrong. You have a substantial amount invested in many of these companies which in my opinion not investable. If you put the same amount in our three Singapore banks and also SnP500 ETF. Your entire portfolio would have grown substantially and sustainably. That is a easy path. Of course you can challenge yourself to beat the SnP 500 by selecting quality companies to invest in(you can’t find them in Spore stock exchange unfortunately). I learned from my past mistakes by confining my investment in our local stock market. You shouldn’t. Your money must be deployed in the best companies in the world so that they can grow over time. Cast your sight further
Points noted, stay tuned for next episode 👌🏻
Just hit subscribed... good sharing
Thank you and see you around :)
Nanofilm???
Do a study on Avarga.
Asset more than debt.
Chairman now trying to take it private. Getting an Independent company Xanders to do valuation.
Might be a play if entry is at 0.25 or more and one eventually believes the share is & will eventually be priced higher.
Think I read it last time. Some subsi in timber or something?
V small cap not too sure of it
I recently bought that stock at 0.21 , you can't buy it anymore because it's a mandatory cash offer meaning they will buy your stocks regardless of whether you want to hold or sell
Is ok to cut loss than let sentiment overtake your logic investment. Good luck! There are some fellows who continue to hang on to wrong investments and do not want to admit it. Worse when followers followed blindly.
nice ifast and pronex sure can boss
thanks for helping analysis
Good sharing,
WHY SELL HOLD LA
If you dont prune, you wont be able to grow flowers
brother got watch the video before u comment anot
@@joshconsultancy Top up more and more
Frankly, a lot of sg finfluencers bias and tunnel myopic vision whenever china is involved will bite you as most are over optimistic and just completely ignore the false narrative of how liquid and elastic china consumers are on spending and the impact of the struggling domestic consumption of China since Covid.
Unfortunately, this includes trusted and no-hype creators like Josh.
Hi Josh. I guessed you only thinking to enter propnex at a much later date? Since from your earlier videos, you seemed to imply that we are in an exuberant stage of the property cycle. Just to pick your brain a little. Tks
Hi Eugene, Exuberant stage , buyers need price to keep climbing, but sellers make the money for sure 🙂
Hi Josh. Tks for reply. Just a few points to ponder over too. agencies like propnex and apac commissions are affected by: 1) sales volumes 2) commission per case. And a bigger chunk of their commissions come from new launches rather than resale segment. So to determine whether agencies can increase their revenue, we can simply focus on just the new launches part, and one can look at a few factors: a) number of new launches moving forward b) expected trajectory of economy in the near term because if market slower, developers may delay launching and/or bid for land parcels c) commission developers give to agencies (slow market tend to give more, and this part is hard to gauge though).
So if one is expecting a slower economy and looking at recent land bids, number of expected launches will be low in volume, then one can expect the revenue to be negatively impacted. Converse applies.
Hence, we can see from above that agencies are in a very cyclical business, and won’t be suitable to buy and hold long term. So may be a good idea to buy when earnings are low and hence very prices are depressed and sell out when the reverse happens.
Food for thought!
@@eugeneleeppov noted
Yes, cut loss is part and parcel of investing.... 😊 No win win 100% all the time.😂
Thank you 🙏
I only have one stock DBS and it has given me fantastic phenomenal return since 2022. Will be selling in 2026 when next meltdown happen
Cut Losses?
Josh, as usual good video :)
Any thots on China and its mkts pls.
Appreciate any imputs pls
Thank you for the high praise.
Think over time we can filter in china those who have growth. Popmart, Trip, Tencent, CN banks are actually growing profits well
The greatness in your performance not comes from what you buy, but what you exclude. From Howard Marks
I recently also cut a 30% loss on TMF treasury yield. Was hoping that the treasury yield drop with fed cut rates. But inflation is sticky.. and i think its a good time to cut loss and redeploy to other good stocks like google, and adobe to capture on the opportunity instead
Great quote
The world is so big, why only focus on sg stock? Try diversify to international stock. Hai ya gone case already
Sgx market suck lol
Just curious. Why are you wasting your time with SGX stocks? Why not spend your time analyzing US equities?
Every pond also can fish. Yes it is true currently this pond is harder.
@@joshconsultancy it has been harder for the last 15 years. STI gained 20% in the last 15 years.
Liquidity ĺacking no tech in sti
What about CLI? The price is dropping madly
I still rate it well 🙂
It depends on commercial real estate investment growth and reit recovery
Potential huge losses in its China assets.
nothing wrong la jia you can earn one
I bite the bullet and quickly sold 1/3 of my investments after Trump won , as my investments were geared towards Harris win. To date from the prices, i'm very glad i bite the bullet. Sometimes you just have to take the hard decisions.
Sold too fast. You need warren buffet level of patience. At least 10 years.
Buffett has cut mistakes fast before also. He holds onto winners 👌🏻
I admire your confidence in local market. But dont waste time bro, buy into US market better...
Stay tuned for next episode
Genting is sucks, all over its business around the world, what a disappointing management 😢
😢
Reits also need to cut
The fundamentals matter 👌🏻 short term price drop can be an opportunity
Genting is losing money ...and it is wise to cut ... It is getting diffcult to operate in singapore due to high cost ..and i rather go genting malaysia which is more enjoyable
What nonsense. Genting Singapore is making money!
Wa Lau, buy so many stocks, why not buy SGX ETF for simple.
Less than 20.
Small cap companies
@ Bro, don’t u think u being too complicated for your own good, for anyone else….?
China is in a 1939 style depression
Evident by the numbers of Genting Singapore
Numbers published by the central govt
should be taken with a bag of salt 😂😂😂😂
Single stock approach is just another form of gambling. ETF approach, spread the risk la😊
Not gambling. Its pride in ownership
Some will lose and some will outperform
Broad base is a faceless ownership of a basket but having said that I do advocate too that its better to spread the risk😊
Forget about retail reits.
Tourist arrivals for SG may see slight uptick, but the quality of the traveller is way below previous years.
I understand ur expertise in retail assessment. I work in the finance sector, I’ve a ton of grievances about how it’s slow and stifling. Sometimes where we work could also be why we can’t recognize the good parts 👌🏻
Bro just buy SP500 ETF
Better sell all your stocks before the big crash comes. US stock market which is overly priced in a huge bubble will crash and all other stocks markets will follow perhaps to a lesser extent but still crash too. So better sell all stocks before it becomes only 30% worth left.
Y not short the market if that's your view of the markets ?
If US crash, Singapore also will be affected. What talking you?
STOCKS SAFER THAN OPTIONS What haha
Still now I've not recovered from comfort "covid recovery"
Comforts latest results show gradual eps recovery. Grab not taking more market share from it alr. May no longer be a $3 stock but seems ok at current price imo
True investor knows when to cut losss as most of us will just hold and hope. If you have other target to invest, then its good to re-deploy your cash.
Good for you on your courage to cut loss.💪
Myself still hold some lost making local stocks that drop so much till I can't be bother with it anymore.
Currently i am monitoring more on cryptos.😊
Cryptos is a boom and bust game, it has undoubtedly been hot
@joshconsultancy yes..will monitor for these few months and sell before it bust again. Then got to wait for next 4 yr cycle. 😁
Next year will be more unpredictable with Trump + Musk....
You missed the banks!
Yes, misses in life, part of the journey
I’d treasure the good fortune when it comes and stay level headed 🙂
people are now going to online casinos..
Do not waste time on the Singapore mickey mouse stock market.
LISTEN TO ME NOW: GO ALL IN ON TSLA XDDD