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Even better the first! Thanks for this brutally honest view factoring not only the acquisition costs but also the opportunity cost in calculating potential profit. I am sure most property investors will not watch this bc it is a hard pill to swallow and its always better to just take "Buying Price - Selling Price" in bragging their profits to their friends & family.
This is GOLD. I did a similar calculation with opportunity cost and reached the same conclusion - this applies also for a resale condo own stay. I like Emerald at Katong but it has to be more of a lifestyle decision rather than a financial one. Anyone who hopes to flip in 3 yrs time - GOOD LUCK!
Thank you for the high praise =) So far no one has refuted the calculations on opportunity cost. Once we see $300k our headspin forgetting cost and opportunity cost
i cant wait to see this comment flunk, i remember people commenting on riverfront, saying greed. OKay can i sit on my 200k profits, you still waiting ah ?
There is just way too much and FOMO in the property mkt today. You are the only one who dares to speak up. Kudos to you. It certainly lends credence to your channel. today, it is not uncommon to read how the CEO and top management folks of the top real estate agencies make endless statements to fuel this FOMO in the mkt. Is this really the case that properties in singapore ONLY moves a straightline upwards ? Let's see how right or wrong they are.
Thank you for the high praise. I agree, CEO and agency leaders interviewed are only making comments that suit their interest with no regard for giving a balanced pov
Thanks, Josh, I picked up one of these older condos in 2015. Yes, I do recognise the 7% plus return in your table. This is the reason I look at the craze of Chuan Park, I just shake my head and laugh quietly. You did a great job to bring this to light.
Always love your analysis. One way I decide where to put my funds is the rate of return. Whichever give higher rate of returns, it will be going there. The prices of these condos even surpass CCR. Rental yield at Chuan Park area is much lower than CCR, where expats and professionals are willing to pay more to be near their workplaces. Watching the videos of celebration each time a buyer has made their purchases really made me happy. As Eric Chiew said, if they huat, the rest of us will also huat big big. 🤣 The taggers, agencies, developer, bankers, govt and existing landlords are thankful for the high price. 😆
People bought new launches for capital gains, flip on TOP. Just need to look at how much Parc clematis, Jadescape, Parc esta, 3 bedder on average made $500k in 4 years. Everyone wish to hit their pot of gold
With a 3 year horizon, its a big risk. All those that make 500k amount. They went through a crucial unnatural global human event. Buying at ATH now, it’s just like buying Bitcoin at its current price now. Same human psychology reactions in the markets.
@@PPI317when everyone is trying to flip during TOP. Guess what will happen? Slicing each other base price to get it sold……. U need a bigger fool to buy at a astronomical price years later. Do your calculations. This huge amount in other markets gets you better ROI. If you cant move the illiquid property 3 years later , the interest rate kicks in, you will start the slow bleed
@@PPI317buy a property that u fancy and would like to stay in. Buying to flip these days is a larger risk that one may think with that mentality, “ sg property is safe” mindset. SG is still driven and influenced by other major global events.
Great video again, especially on the Opportunity Cost. My wife and myself did not consider this much but more focus on how much we will be wasting paying high interest to the bank. So we redeem all instead and get our condo title deed.
Never buy any new launches recently but if this continues future buyers will be priced out of private in no time. Sometimes, the risk of staying underinvested in ppty exceed risk of buying new launches at high
Yes agree. For first home, I do suggest just buy something within means. Never know how long the bull cycle last. Home is home. Hopefully in this discussion, Ive shared how to look at the expenses and NET ROI carefully
This is why I went with an older resale. The current new condo prices are not grounded in reality. I experienced this insanity at the reserve residences with agents confident I would be able to exit at more than 3K persqft, almost every condo launch since then seem to be banking on this trend. I wish them all the best.
For buyers who have placed an option fee. You are entitled to receive 75% of your option fee of 5% if you feel pressurised and have accidentally activated your emotion over the last weekend. But yes, you will have to forfeit 25% of option fee. Not an advice but an option before one exercise within 21 days. In short, you can walk away. For homeowners who have bought, maintain financial prudence, have buffer funds of at least 5 years or more in the event of unexpected downturn so that you can stay and find best options at later stage of your life.
@ We shall see next week if there are any drop outs based on sales data to be release. Let’s hope every buyers out there are rational and not succumb to FOMO. Cheers
Agree! Do your homework before entering any sales talk. People only show what they want you to see. To close your deal and get their commission is their ultimate goal, the rest doesn't matter to them.
Great analysis that no one in the industry will highlight to prospective buyers. Sure there may be a handful of developments that reaped strong returns, but that was also during the Covid years when developers priced the new launches very conservatively to make sure they sell out. Things are the reverse now. Thanks Josh!
You need to factor in the value of your own stay. In other words, the cost of alternative accomodations should you not live in the house you buy. Doesn't apply for 2nd property obviously.
Thanks, great analysis. With a psf of $2.5k+ why wouldn't people buy a freehold resale condo nearby like Amaranda Gardens? As you say they can then get rental income immediately and not years later. Also being freehold the long-term gains are better than 99yr.
Because the development is new. They just need to find a new buyer who can accept and buy at $2800-$2900 psf later. Then, you will see an influx of sub sale listings upon TOP or usually after SSD. That’s the usual SOP for certain groups. Let someone set the trend and create the highest transaction first. I may be wrong but I have been observing such common practices lately for Newly TOP project.
Good analysis..its different from eric chew analysis..imagine 2nd and 3rd floor price increase of 140k..when buyer is under the stress of limited time to be shown the price and decide whether to buy or not..according to eric, interest rate will go down and pple will buy ppty..according to lim brothers, when new launch prices are high, its a matter of time before resale prices catch up..resulting in price increase loop among new and resale condos.
One big driver is the surge of property agent and mortgage broker content creators on TH-cam in recent years who exaggerate gains. They cherry pick the most profitable transactions and ignore taxes, commissions and opportunity costs (and claim that everything is factored in)! The conflict of interest is HUGE when people are getting advice about their purchase, from people who get commissions from their purchases ! Your video is much needed and absolutely on point. Thanks Josh !
Homeseller charges $4999 to sell condo. Anyway, I bought and sold my 3 bedder condo - GEM Residences nett $207K in 5 years. 9.36% compounding interest per year.
You keep hitting the right points with very sensible data and analysis. Hopefully they show ur video at all new condo launches. The govt, developers and agents are in bed together tho so end up Singaporeans carry the can.
We should be concerned with young Singaporeans wellness when they enter the workforce today and looking at the cost of living, cost of COEs, runaway property prices. It’s not surprising to see them disheartened
Thanks Josh for this video! This is really insightful! As someone who is owning a 4room HDB (fully paid) it doesn’t make sense to upgrade to private with such a high cost and loan!
Yup, at different season, they pitch differently. Back then, sell 1 buy 2 then the name of asset progression. Then, how to get tenant to pay for you and expect some cash income from the differential of rental and monthly mortgage repayment. Now, they focus on entry and exit price. Question is, those buying at the so called exit price, are they carrot? 🥕 Following which, in order for homeowners to consider their pitch, they have now shifted to how one can target transformative plans from government to decipher buying entry opportunities.
Hmm, as a buyer, you don’t pay the agent cost on top of the agreed sale price of the property. The agent cost/commissions would be paid by the developer/seller. Buyer pays BSD/ABSD plus legal fees. Unless you negotiate to a lower price which maybe is deducted from agent comms?
Frankly, if the government has not put in place so many cooling measures, prices could have been much higher. It has effectively got rid of the speculative element as Josh so rightly pointed out that the ROI will just be keeping up with core inflation rate of about 4-5%. Forget about fire sale because most Singapore home buyers have good cash buffer. Most private buyers these days are young couples whose income are above 14K and don't qualify to apply for BTO flats. HDB prices in desirable locations have hit 1.5plus million. New subsidised 3/4 br EC in far away Tengah are already selling between 1.5-2 plus million. A resale 10yr old EC 3br in Buangkok is already transacted at 1.6-1.8 mil So relatively speaking as long as income can keep pace with prices, asset inflation is a natural progression except for a global economic crisis.
Thank you for sharing your pov Agree asset inflation is a natural progression. At a bullish cycle assets actually exceed the inflation rate which is what we see now because of higher anticipated price in future repeatedly priced in. This continues to a tipping point
Lookout for this year’s data. Several sectors like banks and tech are laying off. Your top 25% may be grouping at the lower range of the band. And to be frank resale hdb price will come down once govt releases supply. Your 14k earners aren’t dumb. Most will buy resale hdb if it’s that much cheaper. And 14k earners have multiple streams of investments and property looks like a loss. My annualised return is like 2-3 times property return and from risk management perspective it’s terrible odds.
Agree that the property market is toppish at the moment, so are the equities market. Property is probably less volatile as we always need a roof over our head besides renting. Some attributes are just intangible if your family is residing in it. Personally, to be diversify, 1/3 can be in equities, 1/3 in your home,1/3 in short term bonds, gold. We don't have to strive to get maximum ROI, invest in a way you can sleep even in a market drawdown.
@@henrylee1269 i absolutely detest the speculative nature of the housing market. By now there is no pent up demand. Just trying to flip it till the music stops.
Hi Josh, that's an amazing Progressive Payment Calculator. Did you come up with that yourself? Any idea where we can get access to a resource like that? Thank you for the insight on opportunity cost!
I think we are very close to the ultimate cooling measure. After this round of record breaking launches, gahmen may introduce SSD 3 years only apply after project TOP. That will surely crash the new launch market
SSD is a measure to curb speculation which in this case will only reduce and dampen investors from coming in. For homeowners who has the financial means will continue to buy. And yes, this measure will gradually decrease investors but it will lead to a healthy correction. With growing GDP, property appreciating at decent rate is fine and healthy, but not so if one expects double digit year after year by flipping it.
@david Yes, exactly. Very well said. These are leakages usually adopted by the very same group of people. They will then use this and tell potential buyers, see, this is how I have flipped after 3 years to convinced how they should follow them as they have done it before.
Perhaps should also look at the rental yield in addition to selling price…overall picture may be very different if both factors are taken into account for investment purpose…
Ask for breakdown in numbers, one will them to be newly arrived PRs / new citizens issued in record numbers. Of course, u will not find them in the statistics, coming from HK, PRC, what have you.
Respect to Josh for raising these good points. Liked your comment if everything just keep doubling then all go to the moon 👍🏻 Everyone is just looking to flip after SSD so get the biggest house and loan possible with least outlay…
Buy what u like and willing to stay in. Property is no longer the best financial investment vehicle when u look on YoY ROI. There are many other vehicles that gives you better ROI that are more liquid. Opportunity cost is one good subject that the author brought up.
Is it normal to feel the anxiety that you can't get an upgrade on your property while sitting on a big sum of cash proceeds, because you don't want to buy into the hype?
Looking at the hype, there should have more measures like higher cash & cpf downpayment or increase years of SSD for new properties. Many are looking to flip once properties have reached TOP. Property gurus & influencers through social media, are encouraging buyers to flip properties through buy / sell tactics during COVID till now. They are making use of the time opportunities from the purchase date to TOP, to see capital appreciation without even starting their full mortgage monthly payment and proceed the sub-sale. There are already ample of sub-sale on those mega projects TOP in 2023-2024 listing in the market. Soon we will see new launches become a money making tool for many more….
I would be very prudent at current price levels. People should indeed explore other investment opportunities. Unless you need a home to live, then go ahead.
As long as there is FOMO and people are able to get their hands on loans, there will be folks buying out all the properties at crazy launch prices. Many would be able to pull through and see light at the end of journey, but some would not. A lot of younger generation are getting support from parents to offset their purchases at insane prices. I agree with your conclusions, Josh. I am unsure how long this situation can persist. Housing unlike cars are necessity and prices are getting so pump up. If only, our salaries are pump up at the same rate. LOL
I would like to ask everybody how much is your time worth. If you are paying a substantial premium for half an hour more a day do you feel it’s worth it? If yes then buy.
people are driven by promises and emotions just like toy figurines just that toys are trivial things whereas bidding on properties is like gambling your life. You may WIN but you can LOSE also, and it is irreversible. People will just do what they want in this temporal physical life
Think there’s no opportunity cost on the progressive $224k,$$224k,$112k because u wouldn’t be able to gain access to this money had u not taken a property. In other words without the property also no chance to loan this much money.. therefore they are not opportunity cost
@joshconsultancy I did the math, it's basically worse because more interest is paid on a bigger loan. Thanks for this vid, really realistic and clear view of the current market
Hi Josh, i think a lot of people are FOMO and Developers are just squeezing us. Future prices are already through the roof at 2500+psf. All are above 2.5m!!!! how to buy for a family of 3 or 4? And all the Resale are riding the wave as well? I feel there must be cooling measure coming or else, people are just going to be defaulting.
Actually opportunity cost is higher coz property is x4 leveraged. So assume the same amount down payment but put into risk free Tbill x4 levered returns
@ another thing I find for property is the max can only achieve 30% pa (100% over 3yrs) but coz SSD the frequency of compounding is only once every 3yrs. For your CPFOA frequency of compounding is once per year. If you work out the figures in excel, increasing the frequency of compounding will have a huge effect on ur net returns. Hence I find property investing not really that worthwhile
A bearish view, and bullish view. Is what makes the market. It is correct that things don’t go up forever, but for now don’t see the downside. We shall see. SG rode out the cycle since 2017 without downside
I dont want war 😬 Everyone is trying to make a living. I present the facts from my pov as a consumer unbiased and hopefully viewers can decide correctly themselves
why not you do platform speaking on this next to a showroom on the weekend and see how react and where they will go . SHOWROOM or SEMINAR on the REALITY OF BUYING CONDOS HERE IN SINGAPORE
Heard the same overpriced, non sustainable narative 5, 10, 15 years ago. We definately need this or there will be so much more cooling measures now. Keep it up.
Another point which is seldom mentioned is that we would have a huge supply of new launches in 2025 to 2026/7, thanks to the record high GLS and recent en-bloc in the past 1-2 years. Also, many of these future launches have relatively low land costs which gives room for developer to price competitively in a relatively oversupplied new launch market. There is also a 'limited' pool of buyers thanks to absd on 2nd property purchase. Property is cyclical, and a time will come when the new launch market is not undersupplied but oversupplied.
All agent telling us buy before it goes up.u are the one giving us the true picture. There is always circles in property market. The vm for the alert n advice
Thank you and yes, there are definitely cycles in property market. Most refuse to believe. Reason: if something goes up, people will pile in with greed. It will overshoot and thats how a bubble is formed
Actually if we want to be alittle more petty about opportunity cost, the OA opportunity cost isnt 2.5% but 5%. Imagine if you didnt use the OA, govt pays u the 2.5%. If you use ur OA you are paying the 2.5% from your condo appreciation(which could be also mean locking even more cash into ur CPF if you paid some installments in cash)
I believe that prices while high now will go even higher. It’s inevitable with rising costs of land, labor and materials plus rising population numbers. Government won’t let land sell too cheaply - they are rejecting lowballers. Inflation is here to stay now that Trump is re-elected and bent on getting his way through tariffs. We also have more overseas rich families setting up family offices here and they too will buy high end property. All these factors point prices towards one direction - up.
many buyer turn around to Hillhaven, Kassia or even Myst showflat, their sales catching up a lot due to reasonable pricing. you all forgot about chuan park, high entry price is not the only problems , but also for the historical of the developer, similarly you want to marry with a good girl or marry to a girl who have a lot a lot of historical, hehehe, just kidding, I pray for you all the chuan park buyers, good luck when TOP.
You are the only one that dare to speak the truth. Those who ask you to buy in aggressively. Do some critical thinking, do they hold a biased vested interest from the developer. They earn both comms from developer and from the client itself. On another hand, if its so easy money and lucrative, i seen many who are selling all these new launches who are eligible to buy did not put cheques for themselves too.
I know a couple who are both teachers in MOE school bought their first landed property in 1994 around 400k.. Interest rates were high (above 7% i think), but they were able to pay it off. Now the same landed property is worth 5-6 million. Lets look at this closely 1990-2000 --> Teachers can buy Landed property if prudent. 2000-2010 --> Teachers can buy freedhold Condo 2010-2020 --> Teachers can buy Resale HDB 2020-2030 --> Teachers can only afford to buy 4 room BTO 2030-2040 --> Teachers can buy 3 room BTO only 2040-2050 --> Teachers can buy BTO ? 2050-2060 --> Teachers can buy Resale HDB ? 2060-2070 --> Teachers can buy freehold Condo ? 2070-2080 --> Teachers can buy Landed property ? It is fasinating that even people from common profession were able to buy landed property then ,whereas now one need to earn over 500K per year to even qualify. One thing is clear though, most people will never be able to own anything freehold.
Hi Josh, excellent empirical arguments and I can certainly get behind your points. I might have missed this out, but I was wondering, as a rough guide, what would you say is the minimum foreseeable annualised return a unit should have to be considered a good investment? Thanks and cheers!
Thank you zisiong. In bull cycle now, its sellers market, very hard to nego. Buy from developer, they also not cutting prices yet. Ive a video that has a great story - HUGE GAINS - I looked for THE REASON why someone can PROFIT $770,000 buying a condo in Singapore... th-cam.com/video/Xvr9s_YRm5A/w-d-xo.htmlsi=39YMGTlZNRRSUWgb Take care of the buying process. The ROI will work out itself =)
Hi Josh, have you looked at credit limitations that is going to limit rise in property prices in the next 5-10yrs? I’m having doubts due to the fast increase in new launch prices that can be supported via credit limit availability. As the prices go higher, there must be support from the banks to allow it or else the buying pool will shrink and the price support disintegrates.
Hi lawrence, credit limitation due to government factor then maybe its the swing factor. I would encourage gov to cut TDSR and LTV ratios to advocate for more prudency
The beauty of property is that you are using loan to leverage and get the most ROI, your calculations assumes a very large downpayment hence the high opportunity cost which is not accurate.
True for resale condo also. And you get rental income immediately. If Chuan Park can exit at $2950psf. I will Huat like siao with my existing properties also hahaha
@Josh, perhaps you can also do an opportunity cost comparison with S&P500 from a conservative point of view 😅 With Trump in administration, and with his pro business policies, the next 4 years present an opportunity not to be missed IMHO. A 👍🏼 for your good work !!
Suggestion: To curb investment narratives which seems to be out of control for every new launch these days. 1) Increase SSD to 5 years from TOP. 2) Buyers to start paying full instalment 1-3 months from Signing of S&P. They have passed TDSR, genuine homeowners owners will not be affected. Only investors may be affected as they have to come up with Funds. For own stay, and with the right financial circumstances to sustain, by all means, go ahead and buy as I believe property is a form of wealth preservation. The one narrative which irks everyone in my opinion, are the ones pushing for flip every 3-4 years. Essentially, these groups are always around. Who are they? The so called Investors Flippers and Seasoned agents, constantly doing it and hope for higher PSF after 3 years and passed it to the next genuine homeowners. They will use an illustration that one can leverage 4x for property. Just imagine, putting down $500-$700k instead of actual purchase price and expect returns of 100% ($500-$700k) after 3-4years.
Very well said. I do agree on the SSD after TOP. If its home stay then let it be home stay. If its for investment, let rent and full mortgage be a long term approach to owning the asset
@@dantofl8811 Point 2 will penalise property owner (with outstanding loan) who are looking to buy a replacement property. Many will be unable to afford to relocate.
It’s mind boggling why anyone who is buying for own stay would buy Chuan Park. $1.8m can easily find resale 3BR next to MRT less than 10 year old. Chuan Park only has MRT. No coffeeshop, big supermarket or other amenities nearby.
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Even better the first! Thanks for this brutally honest view factoring not only the acquisition costs but also the opportunity cost in calculating potential profit. I am sure most property investors will not watch this bc it is a hard pill to swallow and its always better to just take "Buying Price - Selling Price" in bragging their profits to their friends & family.
Thank you for the high praise.
Agree the bragging rights pov
This is GOLD. I did a similar calculation with opportunity cost and reached the same conclusion - this applies also for a resale condo own stay. I like Emerald at Katong but it has to be more of a lifestyle decision rather than a financial one. Anyone who hopes to flip in 3 yrs time - GOOD LUCK!
Thank you for the high praise =)
So far no one has refuted the calculations on opportunity cost. Once we see $300k our headspin forgetting cost and opportunity cost
EASILY, can make 250k+ MINIMUM for 2 bedroom. come back in 3 years and see this comment.
i cant wait to see this comment flunk, i remember people commenting on riverfront, saying greed. OKay can i sit on my 200k profits, you still waiting ah ?
There is just way too much and FOMO in the property mkt today. You are the only one who dares to speak up. Kudos to you. It certainly lends credence to your channel. today, it is not uncommon to read how the CEO and top management folks of the top real estate agencies make endless statements to fuel this FOMO in the mkt. Is this really the case that properties in singapore ONLY moves a straightline upwards ? Let's see how right or wrong they are.
Thank you for the high praise.
I agree, CEO and agency leaders interviewed are only making comments that suit their interest with no regard for giving a balanced pov
Have been right so far!
What a nonsense comment. CEOs are the first cheerleader of a company. What else do you expect them to say?
Thanks, Josh, I picked up one of these older condos in 2015. Yes, I do recognise the 7% plus return in your table. This is the reason I look at the craze of Chuan Park, I just shake my head and laugh quietly. You did a great job to bring this to light.
Thank you for the high praise and congrats to your windfall gains
Thanks alot Josh, this is a truly scary reality for someone like myself who is not familiar with the money required for new launch condos. Well done!
Thank you for the high praise =)
Josh, The post only said well done, why reply saying its “ high praise”?😂
Always love your analysis. One way I decide where to put my funds is the rate of return. Whichever give higher rate of returns, it will be going there.
The prices of these condos even surpass CCR. Rental yield at Chuan Park area is much lower than CCR, where expats and professionals are willing to pay more to be near their workplaces.
Watching the videos of celebration each time a buyer has made their purchases really made me happy. As Eric Chiew said, if they huat, the rest of us will also huat big big. 🤣
The taggers, agencies, developer, bankers, govt and existing landlords are thankful for the high price. 😆
No probs and thank you for sharing you pov also
People bought new launches for capital gains, flip on TOP. Just need to look at how much Parc clematis, Jadescape, Parc esta, 3 bedder on average made $500k in 4 years. Everyone wish to hit their pot of gold
With a 3 year horizon, its a big risk. All those that make 500k amount. They went through a crucial unnatural global human event.
Buying at ATH now, it’s just like buying Bitcoin at its current price now. Same human psychology reactions in the markets.
@@PPI317when everyone is trying to flip during TOP. Guess what will happen? Slicing each other base price to get it sold……. U need a bigger fool to buy at a astronomical price years later.
Do your calculations. This huge amount in other markets gets you better ROI. If you cant move the illiquid property 3 years later , the interest rate kicks in, you will start the slow bleed
@@PPI317buy a property that u fancy and would like to stay in. Buying to flip these days is a larger risk that one may think with that mentality, “ sg property is safe” mindset. SG is still driven and influenced by other major global events.
Great video again, especially on the Opportunity Cost.
My wife and myself did not consider this much but more focus on how much we will be wasting paying high interest to the bank. So we redeem all instead and get our condo title deed.
Thank you for the high praise
Never buy any new launches recently but if this continues future buyers will be priced out of private in no time. Sometimes, the risk of staying underinvested in ppty exceed risk of buying new launches at high
Yes agree. For first home, I do suggest just buy something within means. Never know how long the bull cycle last. Home is home.
Hopefully in this discussion, Ive shared how to look at the expenses and NET ROI carefully
@@joshconsultancynot only the first home, never buy anything beyond the means.
This is why I went with an older resale. The current new condo prices are not grounded in reality. I experienced this insanity at the reserve residences with agents confident I would be able to exit at more than 3K persqft, almost every condo launch since then seem to be banking on this trend. I wish them all the best.
For buyers who have placed an option fee. You are entitled to receive 75% of your option fee of 5% if you feel pressurised and have accidentally activated your emotion over the last weekend. But yes, you will have to forfeit 25% of option fee. Not an advice but an option before one exercise within 21 days. In short, you can walk away.
For homeowners who have bought, maintain financial prudence, have buffer funds of at least 5 years or more in the event of unexpected downturn so that you can stay and find best options at later stage of your life.
Assuming $2.5m condo. That’s $31,250 gone. I think the buyers will go ahead. Also kind of hard to admit they made a mistake
@ We shall see next week if there are any drop outs based on sales data to be release. Let’s hope every buyers out there are rational and not succumb to FOMO. Cheers
Agree! Do your homework before entering any sales talk. People only show what they want you to see. To close your deal and get their commission is their ultimate goal, the rest doesn't matter to them.
Great analysis that no one in the industry will highlight to prospective buyers. Sure there may be a handful of developments that reaped strong returns, but that was also during the Covid years when developers priced the new launches very conservatively to make sure they sell out. Things are the reverse now. Thanks Josh!
No probs, share with someone who should see too 🙂
Very good video and analysis! Very important that you have highlighted the opportunity and interest costs
Thank you 🙏 share with a friend who should see
Not surprising, most of the rebuttals are from property agents. 🎉
😂😂😂😂😂
Hi Josh, thanks for the video.
May I know where I could access the calculator you used at 4:57 in your video? seems very comprehensive.
thanks!
99.co progressive calculator 👌🏻🙂
You need to factor in the value of your own stay. In other words, the cost of alternative accomodations should you not live in the house you buy. Doesn't apply for 2nd property obviously.
Thanks, great analysis. With a psf of $2.5k+ why wouldn't people buy a freehold resale condo nearby like Amaranda Gardens? As you say they can then get rental income immediately and not years later. Also being freehold the long-term gains are better than 99yr.
Thank you.
I also feel even though Amaranda is older,
Appreciation of it in long term is just as good if not better
Because the development is new. They just need to find a new buyer who can accept and buy at $2800-$2900 psf later. Then, you will see an influx of sub sale listings upon TOP or usually after SSD. That’s the usual SOP for certain groups. Let someone set the trend and create the highest transaction first. I may be wrong but I have been observing such common practices lately for Newly TOP project.
Good analysis..its different from eric chew analysis..imagine 2nd and 3rd floor price increase of 140k..when buyer is under the stress of limited time to be shown the price and decide whether to buy or not..according to eric, interest rate will go down and pple will buy ppty..according to lim brothers, when new launch prices are high, its a matter of time before resale prices catch up..resulting in price increase loop among new and resale condos.
"Stress of limited time to be shown the price"... oops, high pressure buying situation is not likely good. Not just property sale but any situation
One big driver is the surge of property agent and mortgage broker content creators on TH-cam in recent years who exaggerate gains. They cherry pick the most profitable transactions and ignore taxes, commissions and opportunity costs (and claim that everything is factored in)! The conflict of interest is HUGE when people are getting advice about their purchase, from people who get commissions from their purchases ! Your video is much needed and absolutely on point. Thanks Josh !
Thank you for the high praise 🙏
Very good advise. Thank you for your time and effort to do this🙏👍
Happy to do so, Thank you for the high praise too🙏
Homeseller charges $4999 to sell condo.
Anyway, I bought and sold my 3 bedder condo - GEM Residences nett $207K in 5 years. 9.36% compounding interest per year.
what are the tools you used in the video for the loan calculations? thanks
No probs, Loan calculator from 99.co. Hope it helps =)
See the STATE knows all these and are SILENT and you reveal the TRUTH. THANK YOU
nice analysis JT. i was wondering if you would say the same for ECs which are priced much lower than all these full private condos+ DPS?
Like BTo, coz EC has gov grants and priced cheaper, the gains are far more certain than a full condo
Truly appreciate the facts that u have presented.
Thank you for the high praise, share with someone who should see too k
You keep hitting the right points with very sensible data and analysis. Hopefully they show ur video at all new condo launches. The govt, developers and agents are in bed together tho so end up Singaporeans carry the can.
Thank you 🙏
We should be concerned with young Singaporeans wellness when they enter the workforce today and looking at the cost of living, cost of COEs, runaway property prices. It’s not surprising to see them disheartened
vs opportunity cost investing in a globally diversified index ETF/fund
Lol... cannot la... that may be taking opportunity cost too far.
If bitcoin is opportunity cost then everything cannot work alr haha
Very good analysis 😊
Thank you
Thanks Josh for this video! This is really insightful! As someone who is owning a 4room HDB (fully paid) it doesn’t make sense to upgrade to private with such a high cost and loan!
Happy to share a pov 🙏🏻
I do support upgrading with the right moves and the right budget
There are many property coaches who teach property investment did not factor in opportunity cost in gross profit. You have enlightened me.
No probs, happy to share 🙂👍
Yup, at different season, they pitch differently. Back then, sell 1 buy 2 then the name of asset progression. Then, how to get tenant to pay for you and expect some cash income from the differential of rental and monthly mortgage repayment.
Now, they focus on entry and exit price. Question is, those buying at the so called exit price, are they carrot? 🥕 Following which, in order for homeowners to consider their pitch, they have now shifted to how one can target transformative plans from government to decipher buying entry opportunities.
Hmm, as a buyer, you don’t pay the agent cost on top of the agreed sale price of the property. The agent cost/commissions would be paid by the developer/seller. Buyer pays BSD/ABSD plus legal fees. Unless you negotiate to a lower price which maybe is deducted from agent comms?
When it comes to the selling. Pre-factoring that cost. Of course, can DIY sell also =)
If global financial climate goes south, don’t expect the banks and government to bail them out. Never over leverage.
Frankly, if the government has not put in place so many cooling measures, prices could have been much higher. It has effectively got rid of the speculative element as Josh so rightly pointed out that the ROI will just be keeping up with core inflation rate of about 4-5%.
Forget about fire sale because most Singapore home buyers have good cash buffer.
Most private buyers these days are young couples whose income are above 14K and don't qualify to apply for BTO flats.
HDB prices in desirable locations have hit 1.5plus million.
New subsidised 3/4 br EC in far away Tengah are already selling between 1.5-2 plus million.
A resale 10yr old EC 3br in Buangkok is already transacted at 1.6-1.8 mil
So relatively speaking as long as income can keep pace with prices, asset inflation is a natural progression except for a global economic crisis.
Thank you for sharing your pov
Agree asset inflation is a natural progression. At a bullish cycle assets actually exceed the inflation rate which is what we see now because of higher anticipated price in future repeatedly priced in. This continues to a tipping point
If singapore govt’s cooling measures worked , price wouldn’t have rocketed .
Lookout for this year’s data. Several sectors like banks and tech are laying off. Your top 25% may be grouping at the lower range of the band. And to be frank resale hdb price will come down once govt releases supply. Your 14k earners aren’t dumb. Most will buy resale hdb if it’s that much cheaper. And 14k earners have multiple streams of investments and property looks like a loss. My annualised return is like 2-3 times property return and from risk management perspective it’s terrible odds.
Agree that the property market is toppish at the moment, so are the equities market. Property is probably less volatile as we always need a roof over our head besides renting. Some attributes are just intangible if your family is residing in it. Personally, to be diversify, 1/3 can be in equities, 1/3 in your home,1/3 in short term bonds, gold. We don't have to strive to get maximum ROI, invest in a way you can sleep even in a market drawdown.
@@henrylee1269 i absolutely detest the speculative nature of the housing market. By now there is no pent up demand. Just trying to flip it till the music stops.
Hi Josh, that's an amazing Progressive Payment Calculator. Did you come up with that yourself? Any idea where we can get access to a resource like that? Thank you for the insight on opportunity cost!
Yes google search and the one i think i used is from 99.co
Hey Josh, able to share the spreadsheet with your audience? This is super duper helpful.
Oops I try recover the excel from trash, may do a new video on it, subs and stay tuned 😃
@@joshconsultancy thank u sir
I think we are very close to the ultimate cooling measure. After this round of record breaking launches, gahmen may introduce SSD 3 years only apply after project TOP. That will surely crash the new launch market
I would support cooling measure but as of now it’s only our speculation
SSD is a measure to curb speculation which in this case will only reduce and dampen investors from coming in. For homeowners who has the financial means will continue to buy. And yes, this measure will gradually decrease investors but it will lead to a healthy correction.
With growing GDP, property appreciating at decent rate is fine and healthy, but not so if one expects double digit year after year by flipping it.
@@FamilymanSGP flipping is unhealthy for the property market. It is leakage without any creating any economic value
@david Yes, exactly. Very well said. These are leakages usually adopted by the very same group of people. They will then use this and tell potential buyers, see, this is how I have flipped after 3 years to convinced how they should follow them as they have done it before.
Perhaps should also look at the rental yield in addition to selling price…overall picture may be very different if both factors are taken into account for investment purpose…
New launch. No rent
When built, there is rent but there is full mortgage cost also to factor
Ask for breakdown in numbers, one will them to be newly arrived PRs / new citizens issued in record numbers. Of course, u will not find them in the statistics, coming from HK, PRC, what have you.
Love this video and it's such a breath of fresh air!
Thank you for the high praise 🎉
ABSD is benefiting neighbouring countries
When is the down cycle for
property in Singapore? there barely
one as far as Govt support it
There will be. Study period 2013-2016 k
Because those who bought have excess cash. So you don't have to worry about them.
Respect to Josh for raising these good points. Liked your comment if everything just keep doubling then all go to the moon 👍🏻
Everyone is just looking to flip after SSD so get the biggest house and loan possible with least outlay…
Thank you for the high praise
the true pple who make money in property are the developers and agents who advocate sell 1 buy 2
Agents do make very well. Developers are taking on risk, government measures have cornered them abit also
whats happening to all the REITs now? could you do a video on why so many are tanking at this time even with interest coming down? thank you!
Interest rates spiked after trumps election.
Some near term volatility to weather
I had the chance to buy with 900 units still for me to choose from, and I walked away and went for a nice breakfast with my wife. 😂
Good self control. With agents pressurizing you and the gongtao showroom air, you did well!
Buy what u like and willing to stay in. Property is no longer the best financial investment vehicle when u look on YoY ROI. There are many other vehicles that gives you better ROI that are more liquid.
Opportunity cost is one good subject that the author brought up.
Is it normal to feel the anxiety that you can't get an upgrade on your property while sitting on a big sum of cash proceeds, because you don't want to buy into the hype?
Yes i would think so. FOMO. Thats what i observe from private clients also.
Warren Buffett: Be Fearful when others are greedy
Looking at the hype, there should have more measures like higher cash & cpf downpayment or increase years of SSD for new properties. Many are looking to flip once properties have reached TOP. Property gurus & influencers through social media, are encouraging buyers to flip properties through buy / sell tactics during COVID till now. They are making use of the time opportunities from the purchase date to TOP, to see capital appreciation without even starting their full mortgage monthly payment and proceed the sub-sale. There are already ample of sub-sale on those mega projects TOP in 2023-2024 listing in the market. Soon we will see new launches become a money making tool for many more….
Agree there are some who are hoping to flip at TOP with the promise of appreciation by then
I would be very prudent at current price levels. People should indeed explore other investment opportunities. Unless you need a home to live, then go ahead.
Yes indeed for home its a different matter. Investment wise, the risk-reward must be weighed
As long as there is FOMO and people are able to get their hands on loans, there will be folks buying out all the properties at crazy launch prices. Many would be able to pull through and see light at the end of journey, but some would not. A lot of younger generation are getting support from parents to offset their purchases at insane prices.
I agree with your conclusions, Josh. I am unsure how long this situation can persist. Housing unlike cars are necessity and prices are getting so pump up. If only, our salaries are pump up at the same rate. LOL
Exactly, when salaries cant support it has to cool. Or if loan is restricted tighter, it will also cool.
Housing is necessity unlike cars i dont quite agree
Too much FOMO hyping up the market for no reason at all. Thank you Josh for laying down the hard facts and numbers.
No probs, thank you for the kind words Kenny
many new launch buyers are still expecting the kind of appreciation post covid
Thank you for the analysis
No probs, share with someone who should see too =)
@joshconsultancy yup..just did 👍
I would like to ask everybody how much is your time worth. If you are paying a substantial premium for half an hour more a day do you feel it’s worth it? If yes then buy.
people are driven by promises and emotions just like toy figurines just that toys are trivial things whereas bidding on properties is like gambling your life. You may WIN but you can LOSE also, and it is irreversible. People will just do what they want in this temporal physical life
Is accrued interest also part of opportunity cost?
Not in this situation. We are counting loss interest with the capital idling in the development 👌🏻
Think there’s no opportunity cost on the progressive $224k,$$224k,$112k because u wouldn’t be able to gain access to this money had u not taken a property. In other words without the property also no chance to loan this much money.. therefore they are not opportunity cost
CPFOA interest at min would have been earned
Huh...how do you think your mortgage is repaid 😂
whats the breakeven if you use the max loan 75% for a 2.24m property and minimum downpayment (same example in video)?
ok, Upvote if keen! Stay tuned =)
@joshconsultancy I did the math, it's basically worse because more interest is paid on a bigger loan. Thanks for this vid, really realistic and clear view of the current market
Hi Josh, i think a lot of people are FOMO and Developers are just squeezing us. Future prices are already through the roof at 2500+psf. All are above 2.5m!!!! how to buy for a family of 3 or 4? And all the Resale are riding the wave as well? I feel there must be cooling measure coming or else, people are just going to be defaulting.
Yup we may see a time where the pool of qualified buyers shrink.
Especially if gov tightens...
Do you still recommend property as an investment (not own stay) nowadays?
In general the tide is high. And with 3y SSD, even if you find a bargain, you cant really exit quickly
Foreigners are investing neighbouring countries. Benefit those countries
JB ? Give me free I also don’t want
Actually opportunity cost is higher coz property is x4 leveraged. So assume the same amount down payment but put into risk free Tbill x4 levered returns
Wow ok, thats comparison on steroids!
@ another thing I find for property is the max can only achieve 30% pa (100% over 3yrs) but coz SSD the frequency of compounding is only once every 3yrs. For your CPFOA frequency of compounding is once per year. If you work out the figures in excel, increasing the frequency of compounding will have a huge effect on ur net returns. Hence I find property investing not really that worthwhile
Please share how to borrow money from bank at 2.x% interests rate to get x4 leverage on Tbill?
A bearish view, and bullish view. Is what makes the market.
It is correct that things don’t go up forever, but for now don’t see the downside.
We shall see. SG rode out the cycle since 2017 without downside
no wonder so many agent 35k+ at pronex , so many standing outside at mrt no brand agent also
@@jeffer8762 Let me give you some correct facts . 35k is total number of agents in Singapore… Propnex’s is close to 13,500 agents.
Great that you're using risk free rate as the opportunity cost (2.5%)!
Yes. Most use CPF to fund also anyway
Do a next video, on the counter arguments by agents and buyers.
I dont want war 😬 Everyone is trying to make a living.
I present the facts from my pov as a consumer unbiased and hopefully viewers can decide correctly themselves
why not you do platform speaking on this next to a showroom on the weekend and see how react and where they will go . SHOWROOM or SEMINAR on the REALITY OF BUYING CONDOS HERE IN SINGAPORE
if somme people profit 700k from property then huat
Heard the same overpriced, non sustainable narative 5, 10, 15 years ago. We definately need this or there will be so much more cooling measures now. Keep it up.
This is gold.
Another point which is seldom mentioned is that we would have a huge supply of new launches in 2025 to 2026/7, thanks to the record high GLS and recent en-bloc in the past 1-2 years. Also, many of these future launches have relatively low land costs which gives room for developer to price competitively in a relatively oversupplied new launch market.
There is also a 'limited' pool of buyers thanks to absd on 2nd property purchase. Property is cyclical, and a time will come when the new launch market is not undersupplied but oversupplied.
Agree with your POV
All agent telling us buy before it goes up.u are the one giving us the true picture.
There is always circles in property market. The vm for the alert n advice
Thank you and yes, there are definitely cycles in property market. Most refuse to believe.
Reason: if something goes up, people will pile in with greed. It will overshoot and thats how a bubble is formed
Actually if we want to be alittle more petty about opportunity cost, the OA opportunity cost isnt 2.5% but 5%. Imagine if you didnt use the OA, govt pays u the 2.5%. If you use ur OA you are paying the 2.5% from your condo appreciation(which could be also mean locking even more cash into ur CPF if you paid some installments in cash)
Accrued interest? That part may not change the equation
Jai Hind. Like Bitcoin, the new launch prices are always going up but without the volatility.
I believe that prices while high now will go even higher. It’s inevitable with rising costs of land, labor and materials plus rising population numbers. Government won’t let land sell too cheaply - they are rejecting lowballers. Inflation is here to stay now that Trump is re-elected and bent on getting his way through tariffs. We also have more overseas rich families setting up family offices here and they too will buy high end property. All these factors point prices towards one direction - up.
pov noted
Question is whether Chuan Park is the best investment you can make…many other options
@ Ah yes, that is the crux. I believe it can make money, but whether it’s the best deployment of capital and time is questionable. 👍
Not interested in all these condos either. Good video JT !
Thank you DY!
many buyer turn around to Hillhaven, Kassia or even Myst showflat, their sales catching up a lot due to reasonable pricing. you all forgot about chuan park, high entry price is not the only problems , but also for the historical of the developer, similarly you want to marry with a good girl or marry to a girl who have a lot a lot of historical, hehehe, just kidding, I pray for you all the chuan park buyers, good luck when TOP.
You mean what happened in normanton park?
@ no , Kingsford Hillview peak and Kingsford water bay . Normanton park is good one it’s due to under special conditions.
To me, HDB are the best unless one has ample $$$ to fund for the condo. HDB has so much benefits and subsidies !
As far as the party does not stop. Govt support high land price
You are the only one that dare to speak the truth. Those who ask you to buy in aggressively. Do some critical thinking, do they hold a biased vested interest from the developer. They earn both comms from developer and from the client itself.
On another hand, if its so easy money and lucrative, i seen many who are selling all these new launches who are eligible to buy did not put cheques for themselves too.
I know a couple who are both teachers in MOE school bought their first landed property in 1994 around 400k.. Interest rates were high (above 7% i think), but they were able to pay it off. Now the same landed property is worth 5-6 million. Lets look at this closely
1990-2000 --> Teachers can buy Landed property if prudent.
2000-2010 --> Teachers can buy freedhold Condo
2010-2020 --> Teachers can buy Resale HDB
2020-2030 --> Teachers can only afford to buy 4 room BTO
2030-2040 --> Teachers can buy 3 room BTO only
2040-2050 --> Teachers can buy BTO ?
2050-2060 --> Teachers can buy Resale HDB ?
2060-2070 --> Teachers can buy freehold Condo ?
2070-2080 --> Teachers can buy Landed property ?
It is fasinating that even people from common profession were able to buy landed property then ,whereas now one need to earn over 500K per year to even qualify. One thing is clear though, most people will never be able to own anything freehold.
How much do teachers earn lol
$2579 i rather buy your domain21 resale
Dual key resale is better choice rather then going for new launch at such ridiculous prices. Thks for sharing the facts Josh
Agree….certain buyer buy new launches for their many reasons….no one investment fit all. This is always good to diversify
I like a dual key for a family =). The home can produce income already
Hi Josh, excellent empirical arguments and I can certainly get behind your points. I might have missed this out, but I was wondering, as a rough guide, what would you say is the minimum foreseeable annualised return a unit should have to be considered a good investment?
Thanks and cheers!
Thank you zisiong.
In bull cycle now, its sellers market, very hard to nego. Buy from developer, they also not cutting prices yet. Ive a video that has a great story - HUGE GAINS - I looked for THE REASON why someone can PROFIT $770,000 buying a condo in Singapore... th-cam.com/video/Xvr9s_YRm5A/w-d-xo.htmlsi=39YMGTlZNRRSUWgb
Take care of the buying process. The ROI will work out itself =)
hi josh, great vid. i wanted to know which SGD MMF is still at 4% per annum - thanks!
Hi, Fullerton SGD cash is a commonly featured MMF
if bitcoin and tsla can to the moon, so can condo price. huat ar!! 🥳
so, the developers and its conies and the state agencies are treatment BUYER AS FOOLS
Hi Josh, have you looked at credit limitations that is going to limit rise in property prices in the next 5-10yrs?
I’m having doubts due to the fast increase in new launch prices that can be supported via credit limit availability.
As the prices go higher, there must be support from the banks to allow it or else the buying pool will shrink and the price support disintegrates.
Hi lawrence, credit limitation due to government factor then maybe its the swing factor.
I would encourage gov to cut TDSR and LTV ratios to advocate for more prudency
The beauty of property is that you are using loan to leverage and get the most ROI, your calculations assumes a very large downpayment hence the high opportunity cost which is not accurate.
It is actually. With floating rates closer to 4%, the cost to interest ($61,287 presented in 55% LTV) actually steps up
Progressive payment applies for new launches, plus fixed rates are at 2.45% now
@@PPI317 u cant take fixed rates for BUC. floating is still easily 3.4
True for resale condo also. And you get rental income immediately. If Chuan Park can exit at $2950psf. I will Huat like siao with my existing properties also hahaha
what leverage when the interest cost & taxes are so high? Did you even understand all the calculations in this video?
i'm a VVIP to view Chuan Park and the 1st batch to select the unit. Just walk away.
for those who had purchased, good luck after 4 yrs... 🤗
All buying at the top, must be mad. It’s true that money and intelligence are completely different things.
@Josh, perhaps you can also do an opportunity cost comparison with S&P500 from a conservative point of view 😅
With Trump in administration, and with his pro business policies, the next 4 years present an opportunity not to be missed IMHO.
A 👍🏼 for your good work !!
That will be pushing narrative of opportunity cost too far.
I think what i presented in 2.5% OA and 4% SA is very reasonable =)
Singapore new launch condos are a waste of time
Now mayb overpriced but it has undeniably made some pots of gold
@@joshconsultancy Anything above 1.2kpsf in the OCR is already considered expensive, no idea how people can pay more than 2k psf for OCR.
without further dododo 0:47
lol😅
like that people will have to suck up and work for their WHOLE LIFE FOR SO CALL LUXURIES
Suggestion: To curb investment narratives which seems to be out of control for every new launch these days.
1) Increase SSD to 5 years from TOP.
2) Buyers to start paying full instalment 1-3 months from Signing of S&P. They have passed TDSR, genuine homeowners owners will not be affected. Only investors may be affected as they have to come up with Funds.
For own stay, and with the right financial circumstances to sustain, by all means, go ahead and buy as I believe property is a form of wealth preservation.
The one narrative which irks everyone in my opinion, are the ones pushing for flip every 3-4 years. Essentially, these groups are always around. Who are they? The so called Investors Flippers and Seasoned agents, constantly doing it and hope for higher PSF after 3 years and passed it to the next genuine homeowners. They will use an illustration that one can leverage 4x for property. Just imagine, putting down $500-$700k instead of actual purchase price and expect returns of 100% ($500-$700k) after 3-4years.
Sour grape much? No money to buy and benefit so wish others to not do well 😂
Very well said. I do agree on the SSD after TOP. If its home stay then let it be home stay. If its for investment, let rent and full mortgage be a long term approach to owning the asset
I like point 2 because I would prefer starting to pay full instalment sooner to reduce interest cost and pay off the loan sooner
@@dantofl8811 Point 2 will penalise property owner (with outstanding loan) who are looking to buy a replacement property. Many will be unable to afford to relocate.
It’s mind boggling why anyone who is buying for own stay would buy Chuan Park. $1.8m can easily find resale 3BR next to MRT less than 10 year old.
Chuan Park only has MRT. No coffeeshop, big supermarket or other amenities nearby.
the ceo of propnex still keep saying the entry price is amazing and all, spamming his ads all over the tiktok feed lmao
Ya, it never will be a bad entry price 🔥