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Lol m8, one video is how the west cant ramp up production for Ukraine, now its not even 1% of stockpile. Tell them in CIA they need to sync up their stories. Its obvious ur embeded in complex that feeds u narratives they need.
China won't invade Taiwan whilst importing all their oil through the Malacca Strait. There's a reason why China is expanding so massively in green energy and EVs. Oil imports into China are expected to decline, meaning China's energy dependency will not be as severe. The US shouldn't listen to all the "China is declining" hawks and should continue preparing for a China which is more self reliant.
The issue those “China is oil & food import dependent so it won’t war” videos is it’s based on the premise of China running a trade based manufacturing economy during war. Really, when rationing and redirecting resources, those problems are mitigated to about half their relevance. Not to mention China would just increase pipelines to Central Asia & Russia and use its extremely fast growing green energy/nuclear power to satisfy civilian demand to free up gas/oil for the military, though of course more frequent shortages happen and economic civilian growth takes a hit. Now, for manpower. Yes, the population is declining, but that means nothing to an invasion of Taiwan. Firstly, Taiwan isn’t exactly getting younger either, so available manpower ratio of Taiwan to China remains mostly constant. Also, an invasion would be more tech/industry based, as in who cranks out a more effective missile force, will China’s fleet be able to blockade Taiwan? Manpower required is less than a million, and even if a couple hundred thousand soldiers die taking it, it’s barely a deterrent. What really deters China is the capability to produce
Indeed nor has Taiwan this is good and bad no hoary old guard whose Idea of war was how we did it in the last war and more open to new ideas as not so hidebound, but then no one with basic experience and able to mentor the younger ones
Nope. US actually has far more recent experience than China. You can argue the state of the US military but it cannot be compared to China's based on experience.@@GarretShadow
@@GarretShadow We haven’t been at peace since the Second World War. It’s pretty hilarious when you think about it. After World War One war industry in the US was shuttered almost completely. Factories with machine tooling for weapons and munitions were even penalized. By the outbreak of World War Two we didn’t have an independent Air Force and our army was minuscule. It’s hard to grasp now, with the US spending more on defense than most of the planet combined, but after World War One we didn’t want anything to do with European conflicts. We became isolationist. All that changed, and after World War Two there was no going back, because the Soviets were exporting communism and aggressively expanding into other countries. We were thrust into this role of counter-weight, and so the defense contract business came and stayed. We’ve been involved in a conflict somewhere in the world ever since. Today, we are fighting in Syria. Yes, we have forces there, and yes ISIS is still a thing, and with the Gaza War reaching its climax we are fighting in the Persian Gulf. We didn’t want this role, but we had to step into it, and we cannot let go of it.
Japan does not have the troops to make a difference. The MSDF can be of use, but really Japan will not contribute enough to tip the scales. The USA will have to do all of the heavy lifting.
@@blazinchalice not enough to tip the scales? A whole island off the coast of China, hundreds of thousands of well equipped soldiers, the third largest economy, and a few more aircraft carriers isn’t enough? I think your overestimating China and the United States a little bit.
@@donaldtrumplover2254 What're you gonna do with those soldiers? Invade China? Good luck with that lol. The only value comes from the Japanese navy and support bases. This war ain't gonna be decided on land. As for their carriers, they're helo-carriers. Nice for supporting ground operations, not for sinking ships. Frankly I'd rather have more subs, and no one has more subs than China does.
@donaldtrumplover2254 Japan is not an island, it is a nation of over 14,000 islands. Japan has no aircraft carriers. Japan's SDF is so understaffed that they had to raise the maximum service age. Japanese do not want to go to war with the PRC and will resist hostilities even if Taiwan is attacked. Japan would start by refueling US ships, providing logistical support of US troops rushed to bases in Japan, and would provide de-mining and patrol services. Submarines would actively track PLAN subs, but not engage.
@@blazinchaliceI mean you’re still drastically understating Japanese capabilities, their navy is about 1/4 the size of China’s in personnel, 2 amphibious assault carriers soon to be loaded with F-35s, 2 helicopter destroyers as well as a fairly large fleet that’s the 4 largest globally by displacement. It’s southern islands also serve a very important role of area denial to to land based anti-ship missiles and early warning radar. If the American Navy is already there, the Japanese serve as a force multiplier and a crucial resupply hub. Not to mention the Australians who have fought alongside America in almost every war in the last century would be there and potentially the UK too since they did join the US for Iraq. Point is the U.S. won’t be fighting alone, that’s just not how it does things. The first thing the American government would do is form a “coalition of the willing” as it looks more legitimate geopolitically to fight with allies behind you than by yourself, on top of all the force multiplier stuff
@@bmunson4920It's shallow to compare apples to oranges. The condition to invade for China is vastly different to Russia land to land style. China also simply cannot afford the consequences like oil rich russia.
@@CT-cl9wi it’s doesn’t mean Xi won’t do it. Dictators like Putin and Xi live in bubbles with compliant subordinates telling them what they want to hear…
This is the worst time to invade. 1: It's election season in the US the president cannot afford to look weak in front of a domestic audience. 2: Europe and NATO will be judged harshly by the US public if they don't come at china hard. 3: SEA politics would see a political shift if the US didn't come at china hard. 4: If the US cannot provide a clear swift victory more support for isolationism will ramp up. Biden basically has no choice but to respond with direct military intervention and major European powers would have to be perceived as joining in. The risks of not doing so risk a dramatic shift in the political relationship of the US has not just with China but all Pacific and EU nations.
@@luluapple1067 Please my separate post on China’s economy, which is today facing internal financial problems and is poorly equipped to ride out a 2024-25 downturn. Even if a cure in the past, double digit growth will not continue.
Whether mainland China will attempt an invasion likely heavily depends on how the USA, Western Europe, other NATO nations, Japan, and other democratic nations treat the Ukraine conflict. If they see that the USA and other countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and stop supporting Ukraine, then China will be more likely to invade Taiwan because they will realize they can simply "outlast" Western support.
Not at all. The US is not under any obligation to help Ukraine, nor any are other countries you mentioned. They also will never send troops to Ukraine as they don't want to start a war with Russia. Taiwan is completely different. The US has stated again and again that they will defend Taiwan if China invades - not just send weapons. If they failed to do this, It would show that they are not nearly as powerful as they project
@@Astra2 Incorrect. The US literally gave Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons - look up the Budapest Memo of 1994. It is called "Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons." So the USA actually has a written document saying the US will assist Ukraine if they became a victim of invasion. In contrast, the USA only has an "oral promise" to help Taiwan (the SAMDT written agreement to help Taiwan expired in 1979).
I was just on Taketomi island. The idea of such a chill place being a central focus in a war is crazy to think about. The times are definitely changing yet again. 😅
The wild card Herr that no one talks about is Korea. The US had extensive based there to nominally defend South Korea. Much of the part and air bade infrastructure will be pressed into service to support Taiwan. In which case China would highly encourage North Korea to also attack.
China cannot afford to continue these trends for long in light of their economic issues. Through history there are many examples of major land powers trying to also out-navy their maritime rival. They usually break under the cost and that expensive navy ends up in port or on the bottom forever. Have at it PRC.
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I disagree with your speculation. China cannot afford the invasion and does not have the Military expertise and experience to pull off the invasion. A minimum of 9 hours are required to ferry the troops to the beaches. Good luck with that.
@@neolord50pro77 They have zero SEAD operation expertise. The US has honed these operations over the years and had the luxury of learning how to counter each air defense threat as it came to the field. China has had no such opportunity. If China goes for this it’ll be like signing up for a marathon before learning how to walk. They will suffer extreme attrition.
@@neolord50pro77 How do they gain aerial superiority?? Would they start by destroying American bases throughout the Pacific? And only then go for Taiwan? If they do that the world unites behind US. If they don't... they leave all the initiative to US. Lose-lose.
With Russia being outed as a "paper bear" and its military in shambles this is very much the worst time for them to invade. It would be very much them vs the world
Lol, paper bears... wasnt Russia suppose to lose any day now? Its been 2 years. And Zelensky is begging US for money while the Congress is saying no lolol.
@@blue-uo6yl wasnt the war supposed to last less than a week tho? The fact that Ukraine has stalled the entire Russian armed forces to a halt is very telling.
@@zoogie980 Ukraine has been backed by at least 30 different countries including the most powerful nation USA. The fact is Russia is winning against them and Ukraine hasn't been able to recapture their lost lands and territories if you ask me that's impressive.
Taiwan Semiconductor Industries, TSMC, is on a worldwide list of companies that must be protected at all costs, including military force by America and other Western countries. TSMC makes the smallest microchips in the world, western nations would be badly affected if TSMC stopped production, China buys over forty per cent of the output. Every Apple product has TSMC's chips. The expression "The Silicone Sheild" protects Taiwan from Chinese invasion.
There's a lot of news regarding China's economy dwindling, and political issues (backstabbing between CCP members) that makes it harder and harder for Xi to start a war against Taiwan.
In some ways it makes it easy. With a society that doesn't have access to outside media it would be easy to make to public at large in China believe that those issues are the result of western meddling and not horrible economic conditions created by a culture of corruption and nepotism.
@@Oblivisci........ the funny thing is, while the outside world don't have access to retrieve information about China and vice versa, CCP's faction that belonged to Jiang Zemin faction (and which are against Xi) are always releasing their videos and information to give Xi a bad name. It might or not might give the full picture of whats happening in China .... .... but after Premier Li Keqiang died and the sudden disappearance of many CCP and military officials like Li Shangfu ... you really dont have to use your full imagination of what's happening in China's politics.
China is facing a demographic problem. It's population is aging, diverting government money away from defense and eventually decreasing tax revenue. Not a major problem now, but a growing problem. So if China wants to invade, it has to be sooner rather than later
"Chinese economic growth" On paper maybe, in reality it is the other way around. China's biggest money maker is gone, it's empty cities and buildings used for it's pyramid scheme housing market. With major western businesses pulling out of Hong Kong, China may see Taiwan as a last grasp effort to get back to a positive cash flow, which in the end will result in a disaster for China politically and globally as it will be blockaded from oil and food plus sanctions if it attacks Taiwan. There is no scenario China takes Taiwan militarily. China absolutely depends on imports of food and oil and tech.
@@zxera9702 prove it, coward. i DARE you to insult president xi. go ahead, call him winnie the pooh. i guarantee you wont insult your "dear leader" mr chinese bot
They literally had to treat every us,uk,Japanese,korean, etc vessel in the vicinity like if they were operating with balloons in a room full of spikes, this is not Ukraine, the possibility of involvement of every one of those aforementioned participants could be catastrophic if they are given a reason to enter the conflict, China has the losing hand in this situation
@@mtmadigan82Either align with US or ignore China. India won't help China takes to there Border disputes. South Asia? They Ramed Vietnamese Fishing boats and China still Antagonizes much of South Asia. There only Allies willing to help them is Russia. China Effectively surrounded itself with Enemies. Even Philippines when President Duterte Pivoted away from America and into China ended up quietly going back to China because China were just crap Allies.
Japan is also currently dramatically increasing the JSDF. They have also stated that it would most likely be forced to enter any conflict to ensure their own defense in the region. The PLA would likely have North Korea make noise to draw away support from South Korea but the other countries in the region would likely send some form of support.
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Yeah idk if this channel is just kinda crazy targeted by all bots, or if its just one of the few that doesnt bother to remove the bot spam and all this shit gets posted to every other channel too lmao.
As much as I hate to admit it, now would be the best time. China has the numbers and initiative. The US is trying to support two other conflicts, huge problems with service member recruiting and retention, and a home political environment that’s is the worst shame since the civil war. The longer china waits, the stronger the US becomes. They’re already pivoting away from Taiwan for semi conductors. The US would have to choose; Taiwan, Israel, or Ukraine.
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what i think ppl underestimate massively is that in the of a war going hot then the USA could ramp production to ridiculous amounts because they dont have to worry about storing those material.
Lol US lost almost all of its production capacity - factories are closed/ deconstructed/ people who know how to make stuff are retired and dead. Why produce something when you can print money?))))
chip? China has almost developed it. Resources? What resources does Taiwan have. money? Taiwan is not rich. strategic location？The entire island is in firing range. I'm don't know Why is China rushing to invade Taiwan.
@@apocain Almost develop != Develop. By that logic Korea has developed room temp superconductor and US developed nuclear fusion. If China doesn't want to rush invading Taiwan, it means China supports Taiwan independence. 台独万岁
The Chinese GDP is nearly 40% overestimated. It’s odd not to take such a factor into account. When it comes to totalitarian regimes, taking their abilities and reports on paper as fact is like making these videos on rumor alone.
China is not a "totalitarian regime", and any person with a brain not full of American propaganda knows it, most especially those who visited, or do business with China. As for trust in their reports... right, as if no Western government lies to their citizens on daily basis. It's a dangerous thing to only attribute a problem to one's opponent and refuse to see it in yourself. Perhaps, if more people were reasonable, they had seen how Ukraine was destined to backfire for the West from day 1.
America already left the middle east to prepare for the great pacific scuffle. Edit: i also think that the us can put a very heavy finger on the scales by just providing intel and equipment. For every foot soldier there are 10 people behind supporting him, and the US just providing that would make any army alot more combat effectiveness. Look at ukraine wars early days
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There are two windows of opportunity the environmental factors allow for it: March/April and October. The weather and water depth/conditions are not favourable at other times of the year. They're well aware that taking over TAiwanese industry is unlikely, but their primary goal is to use Taiwan to break out of the first island chain. If they do that, it will become far more difficult to contain them in the future. They have also made it very clear that they only consider Taiwan the first step in much wider expansionist plans.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
The Philippines is also keen on upgrading its own weapons (and is currently in the middle of build up never seen since WWII)so location isn't the only thing it can bring to the table. The only thing limiting Filipino forces are the tech and equipment. Most of their equipment was focused on domestic threats. They are well trained, have great doctrine and very experienced especially when it comes to urban and jungle guerilla warfare. The tech and equipment problem is easily solved by money so it's easy to resolve if things really go down the wire. And unfortunately for China, they have successfully given the Philippines something that most Filipino leadership and elite have had the most trouble with achieving: National unity. Congratulations, you have turned an ambivalent west leaning middle power from neutrality to very much pro-Western now.
Don't make me laugh, their military budget is 4 billion this year , Jeff Bezos can afford a better army than theirs. They are nothing without the US military bases.
The Philippines isn't even going to get involved in the war itself, let alone make a difference in it. That's the problem with western views of pretty much every other part of the world - they're so used to fighting far from home that it never strikes them what it means to actually live in the area and know that you're stuck having to deal with that. China will always be there, and win or lose, it has always been a major force in the region. It isn't going anywhere, but the US is. The US is transient, China is permanent. There's no long term benefit to the Philippines from making an enemy out of them, and nothing to be counted on from the US as it isn't actually from there and can leave at any time. The best thing the Philippines can do is to play the situation such that they don't have to deal with the consequences for the rest of the lifetime. Win or lose, making an enemy of China will only cause them trouble, while the US can always walk away regardless of the outcome. The west has long since lost appreciation of what it means to actually be risking more than geopolitical power.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn yeah but filipinos hates communism, its not the country, its the people itself, we will always strive for freedom not from aggression, and china has always been a bully instead of a leader, they are making enemies instead of alliance cause they wanna own everything instead of working together with the ph, so no, philippines will never back down even if we have to fight with sticks and stones, china can win the war, but setting foot on this country is a different matter, and no, china will not be there if war do breaks loose, cause taiwan exists to be a proxy government i bet most mainlanders would welcome a change on their leadership, thats why china needs to win it over first
China will be concerned about 3 things - 1) Can it break the First Island Chain that is containing it. 2) Can it fight a war without adversely affecting its economic growth. 3) Will China "lose face" (like if Taiwan declares independence). For (3), Taiwan, if prudent, will not provoke China by declaring independence. Tsai Ingwen was asked if Taiwan should declare independence. Her answer was that Taiwan was already Independent, and there is no need to declare it. So, Taiwan, if shrewd, will try to leave things as it is, status quo. (Which is how the rest of the world likes it!) For (2), China has seen how the world... or the US-led world, has responded with sanctions against Russia. China can also expect the same, UNLESS China can take over Taiwan fast and decisively, within 2 weeks or less, so that sanctions, blockades, will have no time to affect China. Is there any evidence, that China can take Taiwan in two weeks or less? If US and Japan does not come to Taiwan's aid, China will eventually take Taiwan. But maybe not within 2 weeks. For 1), this is China's overarching goal. Either take Taiwan, or the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, and break the First Island Chain. For the Diaoyu/Senkaku, China would be facing Japan. And the US and Japan has a Defence Treaty, which means that if Japan is attacked, the US will come to Japan's aid. With Taiwan, US's policy of Strategic Ambiguity allows China to nurse the hope that US may NOT come to Taiwan's aid. But that is a desperate hope at best. As much as China wants to break out of the First Island Chain, the US wants the Chain to keep China out of the Pacific. So the US will come to Taiwan's aid. BUT the US does not want a shooting war with China. If the two biggest economy goes to war, the world will suffer. Already, the Ukraine war has caused food shortages, and inflation, and that is a limited war. What more, a China-US conflict... when elephants fight, grass gets trampled. The rest of the world is just grass to China and the US. So how does the US keep China from starting a shooting war. First, make sure Taiwan acts prudently, and shrewdly. Hence the "Strategic Ambiguity". This is as much to tell Taiwan, "you don't try to start anything. I may not have your back. So don't go poking the bear... or the panda... or Winnie the Pooh!" Second, be so overwhelmingly stronger (militarily) than China so that China will see that they have no chance of winning. This is no longer an option. China has grown stronger militarily. Maybe they are still not as powerful or capable as the US, but the US may not be able to "shock and awe" China anymore. Third, if the US cannot win, make sure that China does not believe it can win or win easily. Let China's consideration be that they cannot win, will not win easily, but in addition will have ruined their economy and be subject to sanctions, that will wreck their economic growth for years. Fourth, even if China is able to "win" a shooting war, it would be at a huge cost to China. Maybe they would lose half their naval assets including one or more (or all!) their aircraft carriers, economic assets (factories), ports, shipbuilding facilities, and maybe even the Three Gorges Dam. And the Taiwan that they have captured may be a devastated wasteland. No TSMC for them to exploit/use. The US is "offering" the 3rd or 4th option to China now. China is facing a stalemate or a pyrrhic victory. Neither of which is of any use to China.
China will snap the ball even its not a successful operation. Since its only 85 miles across, what if China failed the first time, then launch 2nd, 3rd, and 4th invasion?
On the one hand, as you say, China has grown militarily. On the other, more and more information is leaking showing that their equipment and training is shit. And lots of their main arsenal is either imports or licensed versions from Russia. As we see in Ukraine, NATO equipment and doctrine is overwhelmingly better. It's also becoming increasingly clear that China suffers the same sort of corruption issues as Russia. And the most important lesson from Ukraine is how a technologically and tactically superior, highly motivated defending army can hold off an army that mainly relies on overwhelming firepower and numbers. And that's on land, a few hours drive from Moscow itself. Imagine having most of, if not all, of the same issues but now the attack is conducted over the sea, with submarines and local air superiority due to chinese planes having to cross most of the sea to be effective while Taiwans airforce can take land, refuel and rearm and be back up in minutes. And that's without counting the massive American navy and airpower. So even if they look mighty on paper, taking Taiwan will almost definitely NOT be a short affair, and the economic ramifications on China will be 10x worse than they are for Russia, since Russia doesn't have a massive population in desperate need of food and energy imports. I've heard that China has a 40 day supply of oil, and a significant chunk of its daily consumption will be completely blocked off the minute they move on Taiwan. And we all know Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed and all the rest are just chomping at the bit to go pew pew with China.
All four of your four points are unrealistic now. There is no longer any room for strategic ambiguity. US position is CLEARLY “prevent unification at all cost ”, China knows that perfectly well now, and US knows China knows. Military comparison is no longer in US favor close to Chinese shore, let alone overwhelming favor for US, and that trend is swinging more in China’s favor in short and medium term. US can’t do that kind of damage to China unless it’s willing to risk a proportional response from China, which means an escalation to nuclear weapons. In any case, that accomplishes nothing except turn China into an arch enemy, and seriously damage US’s economy as a side effect. China will be able to rebuild, as Chinese have done so many times in its history. I don’t know if US could.
@@xsu-is7vq wrote: "US position is CLEARLY “prevent unification at all cost"". US couldn't care less about unification. Or Democracy in Taiwan. Only about the integrity of the First Island Chain. I get your point. And in effect "voluntary re-unification" on the part of Taiwan would threaten or at least undermine US containment strategy. But because you argue from the point of "US preventing unification", you inform me of your bias and myopic perspective. And you assert that ALL four of my points are unrealistic? That tells me your comprehension skills are sorely lacking, So... you're fine with Taiwan declaring independence tomorrow because without "strategic ambiguity", and because (in your words) US will "prevent unification at all cost", the US will support Taiwan's declaration of independence, and come to Taiwan's aid? Like I said, you do not understand my comments, or the intentions of the US or China for that matter.
In 1941 December some countries think usa cannot handle two front war and win is in their hand .After 4 year that's countries were Vanished .Never underestimate the usa manufacturing .
@@eng3dYouve never been to japan or the philipines and youve never talked to one.
ปีที่แล้ว +3
@@eng3d Oh do you see what's happening in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea? That's one of the hundred reasons why we are against Chinese aggression. Also, the US and Japan are our long-standing allies since after World War 2. I am a Filipino btw.
Problem is China has both a demographic and Economic problems that are now starting to be felt. In all likelihood we will see China’s military expansion start to curb sooner or later.
@@cristiii7605 the US debt to GDP ratio is half that China so China’s situation is a lot worse. While the Ukraine war has caused inflation all over the world that has mostly stabilised now, on the other hand China seems to have started a deflation spiral that could gut their economy. Not to mention China’s property bubble starting to burst and foreign investment fleeing. I am not saying the US is in the best form but China has an actual chance at major economic collapse.
@chngcheehwee5433 - Lol, except Taiwan has a separate government its people pay taxes to, has separate laws, has different policies, has a separate military, etc. Mainland China ruled by the People's Republic of China can claim Taiwan is its territory all it wants but that doesn't change the fact that Taiwan a defacto independent country that is ruled by a completely different government under the Republic of China.
Would be interesting. China has no real experience since the Korean war. Their weapons technology is Russian based and we've seen how they work against 90s and early 00s US tech.
14:00 This is a bad metric. We don't know how many warheads China actually has, they keep their ICBMs in deep underground bunkers and shuttle them around in tunnels underneath mountains. It's called the Underground Great Wall of China, and America has no analog to it. America still keeps their ICBMs in static, vulnerable silos whose locations are well documented. Plus, how many warheads they have on hand is pretty much useless. It's easy to ramp up production in the event of rising hostilities. Even Japan is a de-facto nuclear state, and can easily produce many warheads in the event that it actually needs to.
China is probably learnign a lot about the new relaities of war with the Russo Ukranian war. They are probably rushing to adapt with the lessons learned, but as soon as that is done a high risk may exist.
It's not China or even the CCP that needs to learn it. Since China is a one-man show, it's up to Komrade Xi Jimping to learn it and I don't know if he did.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
Except Ukraine has Biden over a barrel thanks to Hunter, the prodigal son. Give Ukraine and Zelenski some kudos for being smart, and knowing the only way they can hopefully survive Russia is get America behind them. And how dumb Biden is. Or greedy, take your pick.
As a USN Veteran... I and other sailors practice in, evaluating our, and improving ourselves in attacks in S. Korea, but as I was close to retirement, we were discussing an invasion of Taiwan as well.... The point was they posed to me was .... "What If..." China were to go into Taiwan, how would you protect them?? I pointed out the same evaluation that you present here with Japan protecting the northern portion of the island, while the US, with Philippine co-operation, to the south of Taiwan in the same Bashi Channel.... Of course I got laughed at.....back in the mid-2000s.........Now I wonder, where those other sailors are?? USN Veteran 84 - 05
@@LOL-zu1zr I Think ..... You need to know that there is ... ' AN " before IQ. As for Me.... I AM a USN Veteran, You P.O.-S!!!! Why don't you give blood on the next blood Drive........ OR....... Donate some of your Time as a Volunteer in Your neighborhood for the next four (4) hours for the next six (6) days........ OR ....... Give monies to a homeless shelter ..... OR..... spend the next Sixteen (16) Years, teaching middle-school kids, then teach high-school for the next six (6) years after that.... AT The Same Time SERVING MY Country. OR, you can keep Your Comments to somebody OR Sign Up and Enlist like I did as an 'Operations Specialist'..... Look it up and See Just HOW Smart I am. Otherwise....get some 'Subs' and Post some Videos... and STOP playing games....."troller"
after watching your video about merkava tank i realized that all of this high tech weapons are BS in real time battles so based on that i give most of ur video 20% reality and the rest 80% based on american propaganda
Why is Merkava bullshit? I saw and heard they performed pretty good, they don't even have to fight other tanks there only RPGs, I would say they are not even being tested to their limitm
@@adi4u48821 i will just say wake up from your american propaganda go watch what happend to the merkava 4 in Lebanon 2006 wand what happening to it now in gazza over 150 merkava 4 already destroyed in gazza
Thank you Binkov for mentioning PPP in context of military spending. Many Many people ignore this for purposes of over stating US military spending for political purposes. Both Bernie Sanders left and Rand Paul right try to beat military spending down with tricks of this sort.
If anyone is interested: PLN North [HQ Qingdao] 1 Aircraft Carrier, 18 Subs, 1 Cruiser, 9 Destroyers, 12 Frigates, 10 Corvettes, 2 Tank Landing Ships, 5 Medium Landing Ships, 18 Missile Patrol Craft PLN East [HQ Ningbo] 18 Subs, 12 Destroyers, 23 Frigates, 19 Corvettes, 2 Amphibs, 16 Tank Landing Ships, 7 Medium Landing Ships, and 46 Missile Patrol Craft PLN South [HQ Zhanjiang] 1 Carrier, 20 Subs, 11 Destroyers, 18 Frigates, 20 Corvettes, 4 Amphibs, 13 Tank Landing Ships, 9 Medium Landing Ships, and 22 Missile Patrol Craft Their Navy isn't as aircraft focused as ours. The reason being that PLAAF pilots have a hard time with simply just staying in the air. So they've designed a very lightweight fleet based on Aerial denial, and a meat grinder island hopping strategy. The southern fleet is designed for the Philippines. The eastern fleet is the primary defense and its main purpose is Taiwan. The northern fleet is their weakest, because they believe Russia will help them.
i still think China is unlikely to actually start an invasion. we're talking about an army that has had no real combat experience for 40 plus years, composed of a lot of families only sons. couple this with the lack of respect for military service in traditional chinese culture, and we're talking about a potential collapse of the CCP even if they somehow manage to capture Taiwan. it's more advantageous for Xi to keep acting like he might start a war to rally domestic support and influence the upcoming Taiwanese election
@@GoofusPlaysit's much easier for the US and partners to block off the strait of Malacca and cut off China's oil imports (minus the 10% coming from ESPO) than it is for the Chinese navy to blockade the entirety of Taiwan, most of which is well within missile range from Japan and the Philippines
last year was the best time for China to invade taiwan when Philippines President was in good or making good relations with China and was distancing themselves with the US but that same Philippines President saw it coming PH on his last term that China is nothing but a huge liar so he went back to US
You're forgetting that Taiwan is 97% Han Chinese. The political division in Taiwan is so great that CCP can just play the good ol' Divide and Conquer tactic on the island.
@@StickyKeys187 why does taiwan need to be "conquered" by china, if they're the same people? why does CCP have the right to trash Taiwan and turn it into a shithole after COVID and destroying China's economy?
You can't comprehend just how incredibly difficult it would be for China to invade Taiwan. It would be the most complex military operation in human history. I don't think China is up to it.
If we don't consider the United States, we could have unified Taiwan 20 years ago, and in another 20 years, the United States will not be able to threaten China militarily
"the most complex military operation in human history"?? I don't think so. Taiwan is an island located just 100 miles off the coast of Mainland China. The PLA can pursue a plethora of strategies in order to incapacitate the vastly inferior Taiwanese defenses and invade Taiwan following that. If the US don't intervene, it will be a walk in the park for China. Fortunately, I don't think that China is planning to invade Taiwan any time soon.
You consider yourself Taiwanese even though your country is called the Republic of China? Even though the Republic of China's government considers itself the legitimate government of mainland China? Have you just abandoned your own history and homeland?
@@abe1996 The People's Republic of China forced the Republic of China to give up the "Legitimate government of China". Later, the Republic of China did not force others to call itself China, so it called itself Taiwan. The People's Republic of China has always been very good at engaging in cognitively ambiguous operations.
@@abe1996 Many people do not understand that no agreement has been signed since the outbreak of the war. In fact, it is still during the war, but it is just a freezing period (the two sides do not carry out any military operations). If you want to say that losing control of the mainland is correct, but the war has not stopped yet, how can you say defeat.
I think around 2027 would be the perfect time for China. The reason is, it could be the war in Ukraine won't be over until 2027, and China would have its port in Pakistan ready. They need that, otherwise you could cut most of their supplies f.e. the strait of Malacca in the area of Indonesia. China's 3rd supercarrier would be ready and the 4th, "type 004", could be ready. China could increase their J-20 fleet from ~200 to 600+. They also convert their ferries into transport ships the military could use. I think, the 2030s would be too late for China to invade, so if they do it, I would expect they try it during the late 2020s, around 2027, after their port in Pakistan is completed and ready 🤷♂️
good time. taywan-china, israel-palestine.you shouted there that we were Russian invaders, and you animals turned out to be even worse. When will the Moroccans get their territory back near the strait? Are they paying off?
a big one... because if the China controls the sea, they are all fked and becomes at best puppets at worst directly controlled by Xi. Nobody wants that.
I know this is outside the scope of this channel, but it seems that China might be sitting on a serious economic bubble. If it bursts, they're going to be on trouble.
I have no illusions that the Chinese economy won’t collapse if it stays its course, but considering how many times its managed from come back from its bubble economy “bursting” in the past, I would be more conservative on a time scale, as well as the speed and scope of its decline. Everyone has always won against China when they took them seriously. Everyone has always lost against China when they were underestimated.
The present economy in China would not support your numbers. Considering it is thought that China has been cooking its books so to speak for at least the last decade. Another issue to take into account is the quality of all Chinas unproven combat systems and the quality of training that goes into using them.
Why would China want to alienate its two biggest trading partners - ASEAN and EU? If China invaded Taiwan and the US intervened militarily would American companies still import Chinese goods? Imports from China make up around 15% of all imports into USA, mainly consumer electronics. If you absolutely must go to war it helps if your opponent can't fight back. Invading Russia's Far East would serve China's geopolitical ambitions far better due to the immense mineral deposits in that region which Chinese industry desperately needs. Also, China has wanted control of the Amur region / Outer Manchuria returned to them far longer than it has been going after Taiwan. The US is perfectly capable of fighting and winning two major wars on two different continents at the same time. Russia does not have that ability. It could not even help Armenia during the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. In recent years many analysts have been looking at all the new vessels being constructed for the Chinese Navy and then trying to work out how they would be used against the navies of Taiwan, the Philippines, and the US. Much head scratching ensued because while those vessels *could* be used in that way not all of the choices on the part of the Chinese navy made sense. It becomes a lot clearer when you realise the intended opponent is the Russian Pacific Fleet.
The problem of the US is not technical but political. Maybe they would be capable to fight two major wars, but they simply dont have the political will anymore to do that.
After the Korean War in 1950, PRC was blocked by the US -led capitalist world. After the Sino-Soviet Split in 1959, PRC was blocked by the Socialist world led by the Soviet Union. After the Sino -Indian war in 1962, PRC was isolated by the Non -Alliance Movement world led by India. CCP was fully involved in the Vietnam War in 1964. CCP attacked India in 1967. CCP attacked the Soviet Union 1969, and the nuclear crisis broke out between the two comrades. Why did CCP became hostile to the United States, the Soviet Union, India, and their allies at the same time in the 1960s? because freedom, independence, and security is above economy, you don't understand Chinese history and CCP at all. When the first world, the second world, and the third world were hostile to China, does CCP compromise because of such containment? It was Nixon running in Beijing to shake hands with Mao Zedong, then Mao Zedong reduced his assistance to Viet Cong. China will not oppose Russia, unless two conditions occur: 1. Russia becomes pro -American and anti -China, 2. The United States collapsed and disintegrated.
US is not deeply involved in Ukraine. If it was the war would be over long ago. Of all the money for "aid" USA dedicated toward Ukraine, 90% is spent in the USA, rearming the USA and giving up the surplus to Ukraine. If you actually think about it that process makes the USA military more modern and better armed, which means stronger.
Kind of true, except the artillery shells, but I feel like USA mostly sent the old stock that needed disposing. The problem I see with the US though is they scrap extremely useful machines, like Bradley (can't confirm as I did not find a news source, but apparently USA are going ahead with their long term accepted plan of scrapping them) instead of sending them to Ukraine, where they are INSANELY advantageous against infantry and BTRs.
Is it me or is this looking like the 1930's again? In Europe Russia it's playing Germany's role in the Pacific China is looking to play Japan's role and in the Mediterranean Iran seems to try and play Italy's role.
Ww2’s reason is ww1. And I think Iran is so weak😂 I think Indian has more possible. Cause Italy always surrendered before their friends lost. India also looks like Italy.
There are more factors though. 1. Japan is commited to defend Taiwan as well. They are the 3rd largest economy in the world and are currently increasing their military budgtet. 2. I don't think EU would completely stay out of it either. Even if the war in Ukraine is still going on. Even hesitant Germany has deployed a combat ship in the South "China" sea and flown a squadron of combat aircrafts to Australia for capability demonstration purposes in the last years. There will never be a good time. Chinas economy is cooling down currently and it will probably only get worse. Fewer investments, corruption, demografic decline are all pulling the economy down. They will never take Taiwan.
Not anymore Germany has already taken over Japan as 3rd in the world and the another problem is the lack of investment in their own military capabilities and the aging population the things that Japan can do is defend thier own islands from any threat from china
@@Dorae-ur-momwith Japan, the United States, Australia, France, the UK, and probably the ROK, and the Philippines aiding Taiwan together i wish the Chinese the best of luck with their absolutely zero operational experience beyond border skirmishes since they got their asses handed to them in Vietnam in the 80s.
Pointless video as China simply does not have an amphibious fleet to move any meaningful amount of men across the Taiwan straits.End of story. They are 10 years from any capability
now is not the best time, as the two typhoons that recently hit china, destroyed (via flooding) alot of their grain that they were storing and hoarding (most likely for use in the invasion of taiwan in the future), not to mention they have a diesel fuel shortage which the chinese navy uses.
There are maybe a dozen nations that recognize Taiwan to be independent and they are mostly obscure island nations. Taiwan is China. What is so hard to understand?
I think it's hard for some nationalists to understand. They seem to live in a fairy tale land. Or maybe they just are jealous that taiwanese have democracy and human rights, but they can only go after safe targets to avoid trouble.
@@Omi_Kasigi Obviously you didn't notice that he was saying "The Republic of China" (There's no "People's"), which is the official name of Taiwan. Wumao won't use this term.
@@NomadWalker-io3ne I did say "The Republic of China" is the official name of Taiwan, why are you correcting me with what I've said? If you want me to put it clearly, "Westen Taiwan" would be "Western Republic of China" in his argument. He never mention the word "People's" so you don't put it into his mouth. You are just misunderstanding what people are trying to convey and then spamming the meme losing on everybody based on your poor understanding smh.
@@ahmedhussein1694 Iraq was taken fairly easy as was Afghanistan. Occupation is an entirely different manner. Ukraine and Russia are trading blows its not as one sided as people think. Vietnam is the exception even though their casualty rate was extremely higher, but they had the prior combat experience and they're a resilient adversary. They withheld France, US and China as well as spanked Cambodia. China has almost zero modern combat experience. And when you break down the actual numbers of the types of ships they are making and servicing the tonnage numbers do not mean anything.
The problem with any potential China v Taiwan conflict is logistics. Amphibious invasions do not happen overnight. We can entertain the ongoing possibility of unintentional escalation in the Pacific for as long as we'd like, amidst as many international crises as we'd like. But if China actually wanted to "invade" and/or "take" Taiwan, there would be so many clear indications. Fuel being transported. Ammunition. Medical supplies. Ships. Mechanics. The entirety of the US-Pacific alliance network would be clearly primed and alerted at this potential. If anyone is actively stupid enough to let this happen is another matter altogether. I simply insist that we would know it's a possibility.
There is also a Projection once the Philippines change it's Procurement law which will allow them to buy 2nd Hand Weaponry such as 2nd hand F16 which is cheaper, they might have atleast 60 F16 by 2026 or 2028 which will be a force multiplier in the Pacific War as they can be armed with AGM-84 Harpoon and it will also reduce Logistics strain as it as familiarity with the US
The Ramjet 155 Artillery round travels several times the distance of regular ammunition. Not only that, it can be steered to a certain degree remotely like a missile! This increases the effective range of the proverbial King of Battle greatly! Now, Heavy Artillery can be fired from the Island formerly known as Formosa and hit deep into Mainland Communist China! And the Ramjet 155 ammunition inflicts less ware and tear on the gun barrel because less propellant charge is used than with regular ammunition as it is only necessary to put the Ramjet 155 round up to the speed that the ramjet can kick in. Ramjet technology is relatively simple, but the adaptation to Artillery ammunition is only a recent achievement as was difficult to design a ramjet round that could withstand the forces of being fired in an Artillery piece. Ramjet 155 Artillery ammunition is a game changer! Now, deeply entrenched Artillery in the mountainous regions of Taiwan can wreak havoc on any supply lines leading to an embarkation zone along the coast if the Chicomms decide to launch an invasion by sea. I was an Artillery Fire-Direction Control Specialist in the US Army and a Heavy Mortarman. That's two of the three coordinating elements of the Indirect Fire Team. I've been out for a long time, so I recommend you interview 13-Echos who have gotten out of the Army more recently. I am amazed that the significance of doubling and tripling the effective range of the King of Battle is receiving so little coverage. Artillery will now be able to engage targets far more cheaply than expensive manned or unmanned aircraft, and with the remote steering capability of the Ramjet 155 rounds, they can be directed vertically on approach to their targets in order to achieve the High Angle Hell that Heavy Mortars are so greatly appreciated for in urban combat environments, and in extremely hilly terrain.
Another guy commented that the ramjet 155 is still under development with Norway. I had read an article and didn't get that. I thought it was already in use. I don't know if they have any in use right now.@@connorscherer617
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
China should prepare but wait for another 11 months. If the funding to Ukraine truly weren't renewed at the start of 2024, then China should indeed attack as: 1) They would have the best chance of the USA simply backing down or giving up half way of the conflict 2) Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines would hesitate (to say the least) to join a conflict that the US might not see through, leaving them to deal with the consequences alone 3) Most of Europe wouldn't even react and even the UK might hesitate to provide more than a token assistance to the USA, let alone Taiwan. 4) The US election would put the US in a mess no matter how it turns out. If trump wins, starting the war under Biden would give the most chance to strike an easy deal with that incompetent buffoon to get everything China wants in exchange for a token peace deal and if Biden wins, the trump faction would still be in control of congress and even more willing to put the strategic interests of the USA on the side for the internal politic. The western world won't unite against China if Ukraine turns out to be a catastrophic fiasco just because the USA, the leading country, simply gave up out of nowhere, grasping defeat out of the jaws of victory ;p. But the most likely scenario is that the funding will be renewed and China would still better wait another 10-15 years (which doesn't take Xi's age into account though).
Something that I think isn't talked about enough when analyzing a potential US/China war is the time window's narrowness. China has a huge demographic problem, a large working age population that is nearing retirement within the next ~10-20 years. They don't have the replacement rate (birth rate + immigration) to compensate for this gap in their workforce and eventually, their army. Their birth rate is extremely low, likely a result of the old one/two child policy. If they act now, they might lose based on technology, if they wait, they may not have the fighting men to keep up. Europe is suffering from demographic problems too, as are many other countries. The only reason the US gains population each year is due to immigration and a low death rate. Just some interesting things to consider
[1] it will take 200 years for China to shrink to the size of US population of today. [2] China total heads count is shrinking, China's colledge graduates are increasing yearly, in short, their society is getting smarter percentage wise even faster. Oh also, their universities don't dabble that much in litrature or art, 85% of degress are STEMs. [3] china doesn't need Taiwan, China just needs Taiwan to be not independent. Also, Taiwan wants to be independent, She needs to change her name from "Republic of China" to something else. china actually likes the fact that Taiwan still calls herself "China" officially.
@ylstorage7085 #3 is flat wrong. Ever heard of the one China policy? It's joint, they both agree on it. Taiwan does not want to be independent, they want to be the only China. Nuanced difference but important to recognizing the political situation. Also it's not a matter of a shrinking population, it's the percentage of population retired. Size, in this case, isn't what I was referring to in terms of a demographic crisis. Also a degree in STEM doesn't mean anything in particular. It matters if they actually use their newly skilled labor pool properly.
@fishywafflefries Of course. But they haven't done it yet no? Wouldn't China also view a declaration of independence as a rebellion since they both officially claim to be the legitimate government of China. Though the current Gov is pro independence, Taiwan is still officially the Republic of China
@@fishywafflefries Watch HongKong slowly assimilate with the mainland China. Taiwan will be like HongKong. Peaceful reunification. Invasion is not necessary.
If you want to understand the massive effort it would take lets do a comparative analysis. It would be like D-Day, but let's scale that back and use Sicily as an example of invading an island of some what similar size and terrain. Defending forces for the Axis were about 250,000, roughly equivalent to Taiwan's active forces. The Allies used a total of 450,000 or so forces to eventually dislodge them in a little over a month of combat. The allies initially assault forces numbered about 160,000 men. It took 2,590 ships to land and support the invasion forces and nearly 4,000 aircraft in support. So as you can see, in order to invade Taiwan it would take a massive number of troops and ships, aircraft, etc. to even launch an invasion, let alone practice (a necessity) such an invasion unnoticed. One thing any invasion would not be, is a surprise. China has no experience at this type of operation. Even the United states that practices invasions from the sea couldn't pull this off with the currently available resources. It would take years to build up just the support ships needed. Any thing less would be disastrous for the invaders and tens of thousands of grieving family members who's loved ones were needlessly sacrificed. China's only chance would to blockade the island into to submission but even that is not as easy as it sounds in the face of the combined allied Naval and sea power.
also, the steady march of tech advantages the defender d-day was meticulously planned with paratroopers and false landings as distractions after spreading misinformation to german spies - when the allies landed, the germans thought the real landings were fake and vice versa and responded badly engage in a d-day style operation today and the spy satellites will see the buildup, the spy drones will see exactly where the landing craft are heading, and it would take one successful fpv drone per landing craft to completely stop the operation make the transports bigger and better armored and suddenly you have higher costs and complex supply chain issues, you can't land as many troops per beach, and your troops are instead a prime target for anti-ship missiles part of why d-day was even possible was the lack of precise weapons that could sink an offshore craft
Numbers/quantity is a quality on it's own. However, whoever has better training, logistics, and actual experience are also factors that wins the battle.
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Lol m8, one video is how the west cant ramp up production for Ukraine, now its not even 1% of stockpile. Tell them in CIA they need to sync up their stories. Its obvious ur embeded in complex that feeds u narratives they need.
Nope.
China can't conquer Taiwan currently and knows it.
Better would be a predictive video "when would be the best time".
Randy Feltface was way funnier than you.
If you cannot even make a good joke then why bother making these sci-fi videos in the first place?
@binkov why do you encourage more war and violence?
China won't invade Taiwan whilst importing all their oil through the Malacca Strait.
There's a reason why China is expanding so massively in green energy and EVs.
Oil imports into China are expected to decline, meaning China's energy dependency will not be as severe.
The US shouldn't listen to all the "China is declining" hawks and should continue preparing for a China which is more self reliant.
Is China self reliant on energy yet? They are surely importing a lot of coal and fuel.
@@MrToubrouk They will become more self reliant as time goes on due to heavy investment in domestic energy.
@@J_X999 When?
The issue those “China is oil & food import dependent so it won’t war” videos is it’s based on the premise of China running a trade based manufacturing economy during war.
Really, when rationing and redirecting resources, those problems are mitigated to about half their relevance. Not to mention China would just increase pipelines to Central Asia & Russia and use its extremely fast growing green energy/nuclear power to satisfy civilian demand to free up gas/oil for the military, though of course more frequent shortages happen and economic civilian growth takes a hit.
Now, for manpower. Yes, the population is declining, but that means nothing to an invasion of Taiwan. Firstly, Taiwan isn’t exactly getting younger either, so available manpower ratio of Taiwan to China remains mostly constant. Also, an invasion would be more tech/industry based, as in who cranks out a more effective missile force, will China’s fleet be able to blockade Taiwan? Manpower required is less than a million, and even if a couple hundred thousand soldiers die taking it, it’s barely a deterrent.
What really deters China is the capability to produce
@@ac1455 Those pipelines will take at least a decade to build and will be great static targets.
China's military hasn't been tested in decades. For this reason even with all the additional military spending, we have no idea how they will perform.
True peace time armies tend to be a joke dispite huge budget, US however fits in that category as well
Indeed nor has Taiwan this is good and bad no hoary old guard whose Idea of war was how we did it in the last war and more open to new ideas as not so hidebound, but then no one with basic experience and able to mentor the younger ones
Nope. US actually has far more recent experience than China. You can argue the state of the US military but it cannot be compared to China's based on experience.@@GarretShadow
But we all have idea how US military performed in Afghanistan. They couldn't even defeat Taliban.
@@GarretShadow We haven’t been at peace since the Second World War.
It’s pretty hilarious when you think about it. After World War One war industry in the US was shuttered almost completely. Factories with machine tooling for weapons and munitions were even penalized. By the outbreak of World War Two we didn’t have an independent Air Force and our army was minuscule.
It’s hard to grasp now, with the US spending more on defense than most of the planet combined, but after World War One we didn’t want anything to do with European conflicts. We became isolationist.
All that changed, and after World War Two there was no going back, because the Soviets were exporting communism and aggressively expanding into other countries. We were thrust into this role of counter-weight, and so the defense contract business came and stayed. We’ve been involved in a conflict somewhere in the world ever since.
Today, we are fighting in Syria. Yes, we have forces there, and yes ISIS is still a thing, and with the Gaza War reaching its climax we are fighting in the Persian Gulf.
We didn’t want this role, but we had to step into it, and we cannot let go of it.
Japan as an ally will be a difference maker, and having Philippine bases is a huge plus. The US wont be out there alone.
Japan does not have the troops to make a difference. The MSDF can be of use, but really Japan will not contribute enough to tip the scales. The USA will have to do all of the heavy lifting.
@@blazinchalice not enough to tip the scales? A whole island off the coast of China, hundreds of thousands of well equipped soldiers, the third largest economy, and a few more aircraft carriers isn’t enough? I think your overestimating China and the United States a little bit.
@@donaldtrumplover2254 What're you gonna do with those soldiers? Invade China? Good luck with that lol. The only value comes from the Japanese navy and support bases. This war ain't gonna be decided on land. As for their carriers, they're helo-carriers. Nice for supporting ground operations, not for sinking ships. Frankly I'd rather have more subs, and no one has more subs than China does.
@donaldtrumplover2254 Japan is not an island, it is a nation of over 14,000 islands. Japan has no aircraft carriers. Japan's SDF is so understaffed that they had to raise the maximum service age. Japanese do not want to go to war with the PRC and will resist hostilities even if Taiwan is attacked. Japan would start by refueling US ships, providing logistical support of US troops rushed to bases in Japan, and would provide de-mining and patrol services. Submarines would actively track PLAN subs, but not engage.
@@blazinchaliceI mean you’re still drastically understating Japanese capabilities, their navy is about 1/4 the size of China’s in personnel, 2 amphibious assault carriers soon to be loaded with F-35s, 2 helicopter destroyers as well as a fairly large fleet that’s the 4 largest globally by displacement. It’s southern islands also serve a very important role of area denial to to land based anti-ship missiles and early warning radar.
If the American Navy is already there, the Japanese serve as a force multiplier and a crucial resupply hub. Not to mention the Australians who have fought alongside America in almost every war in the last century would be there and potentially the UK too since they did join the US for Iraq.
Point is the U.S. won’t be fighting alone, that’s just not how it does things. The first thing the American government would do is form a “coalition of the willing” as it looks more legitimate geopolitically to fight with allies behind you than by yourself, on top of all the force multiplier stuff
‘…China has no plans to invade…’
Isn’t that what Putin was telling Macron, and other western leaders about Ukraine up to the day before?
你们对国际政治的思考太单一了，中国为什么要对台湾开战？台湾大部分人是汉族，而且台湾在中国的南方，但是美国位于中国的哪个方向？美国在中国的东北方向，中国即使要开战也只会毁灭日本这个美国最重要的亚洲军事基地，并且离关岛夏威夷阿拉斯加更近
美国为什么一直试图让中国陷入菲律宾台湾的战争，因为菲律宾台湾就在中国的南方方向，而越往南方越远离美国本土，美国试图让中国远离日本韩国夏威夷阿拉斯加关岛，中国早就看破了这种低级伎俩，所以任何认为中国会对台湾开战的人都是不懂国际政治的
@@哈哈哈-d8b if you could read my comment in English, you should reply directly in English. Your response in simplified mandarin was incomprehensible.
@@bmunson4920It's shallow to compare apples to oranges. The condition to invade for China is vastly different to Russia land to land style. China also simply cannot afford the consequences like oil rich russia.
@@CT-cl9wi it’s doesn’t mean Xi won’t do it. Dictators like Putin and Xi live in bubbles with compliant subordinates telling them what they want to hear…
This is the worst time to invade.
1: It's election season in the US the president cannot afford to look weak in front of a domestic audience.
2: Europe and NATO will be judged harshly by the US public if they don't come at china hard.
3: SEA politics would see a political shift if the US didn't come at china hard.
4: If the US cannot provide a clear swift victory more support for isolationism will ramp up.
Biden basically has no choice but to respond with direct military intervention and major European powers would have to be perceived as joining in. The risks of not doing so risk a dramatic shift in the political relationship of the US has not just with China but all Pacific and EU nations.
NATO has nothing to do with Taiwan, European countries wouldn't intervene in the Pacific.
It's not a good time. They need to sell the US Treasury bonds first.
Using Chinese GDP as a basis for any analysis is problematic to say the least.
Why?
@@luluapple1067 A drone in the United States costs hundreds of thousands of dollars, but China only needs a few thousand yuan
@@luluapple1067 Please my separate post on China’s economy, which is today facing internal financial problems and is poorly equipped to ride out a 2024-25 downturn. Even if a cure in the past, double digit growth will not continue.
Whether mainland China will attempt an invasion likely heavily depends on how the USA, Western Europe, other NATO nations, Japan, and other democratic nations treat the Ukraine conflict. If they see that the USA and other countries will get tired of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion and stop supporting Ukraine, then China will be more likely to invade Taiwan because they will realize they can simply "outlast" Western support.
Not at all. The US is not under any obligation to help Ukraine, nor any are other countries you mentioned. They also will never send troops to Ukraine as they don't want to start a war with Russia. Taiwan is completely different. The US has stated again and again that they will defend Taiwan if China invades - not just send weapons. If they failed to do this, It would show that they are not nearly as powerful as they project
@@Astra2 Incorrect. The US literally gave Ukraine security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons - look up the Budapest Memo of 1994. It is called "Memorandum on security assurances in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons." So the USA actually has a written document saying the US will assist Ukraine if they became a victim of invasion. In contrast, the USA only has an "oral promise" to help Taiwan (the SAMDT written agreement to help Taiwan expired in 1979).
West Taiwan and its ruling Pooh need to chill out.
lmao cia bot angry that they can't even deal with the houthis without begging 20 other countries to tag along 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Hey at least we can make fun of our government and not get arrested for it
the copium in these comments gives me life
Yeah lots of Chinese propagandists / bots towing the CCP line. They get paid for every pro-China comment 😂
@@uncledaisy They gotta get that +0.005 social credit score
@@uncledaisyyea Mf there's alot of them lmao poor dudes they really don't know how the situation was really going in.
I was just on Taketomi island. The idea of such a chill place being a central focus in a war is crazy to think about. The times are definitely changing yet again. 😅
The wild card Herr that no one talks about is Korea. The US had extensive based there to nominally defend South Korea. Much of the part and air bade infrastructure will be pressed into service to support Taiwan. In which case China would highly encourage North Korea to also attack.
China cannot afford to continue these trends for long in light of their economic issues.
Through history there are many examples of major land powers trying to also out-navy their maritime rival. They usually break under the cost and that expensive navy ends up in port or on the bottom forever. Have at it PRC.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
I disagree with your speculation. China cannot afford the invasion and does not have the Military expertise and experience to pull off the invasion. A minimum of 9 hours are required to ferry the troops to the beaches. Good luck with that.
So what they will gain air superiority and paradrop expedition force to secure landing site. It will be like Market Garden and D-Day in one push.
@@neolord50pro77 Good luck with gaining air superiority. Ask the Russians how that went for them.
Whataboutism much?@@patricebertrand1146
@@neolord50pro77 They have zero SEAD operation expertise. The US has honed these operations over the years and had the luxury of learning how to counter each air defense threat as it came to the field. China has had no such opportunity.
If China goes for this it’ll be like signing up for a marathon before learning how to walk. They will suffer extreme attrition.
@@neolord50pro77 How do they gain aerial superiority?? Would they start by destroying American bases throughout the Pacific? And only then go for Taiwan? If they do that the world unites behind US. If they don't... they leave all the initiative to US. Lose-lose.
With Russia being outed as a "paper bear" and its military in shambles this is very much the worst time for them to invade. It would be very much them vs the world
Lol, paper bears... wasnt Russia suppose to lose any day now? Its been 2 years. And Zelensky is begging US for money while the Congress is saying no lolol.
@@blue-uo6yl wasnt the war supposed to last less than a week tho? The fact that Ukraine has stalled the entire Russian armed forces to a halt is very telling.
Never was said by the Russian that was a US general cope harder Sheep repeating what u heard lol, Go look up who said it.@@zoogie980
@@zoogie980 Ukraine has been backed by at least 30 different countries including the most powerful nation USA. The fact is Russia is winning against them and Ukraine hasn't been able to recapture their lost lands and territories if you ask me that's impressive.
Taiwan Semiconductor Industries, TSMC, is on a worldwide list of companies that must be protected at all costs, including military force by America and other Western countries. TSMC makes the smallest microchips in the world, western nations would be badly affected if TSMC stopped production, China buys over forty per cent of the output. Every Apple product has TSMC's chips. The expression "The Silicone Sheild" protects Taiwan from Chinese invasion.
There's a lot of news regarding China's economy dwindling, and political issues (backstabbing between CCP members) that makes it harder and harder for Xi to start a war against Taiwan.
In some ways it makes it easy. With a society that doesn't have access to outside media it would be easy to make to public at large in China believe that those issues are the result of western meddling and not horrible economic conditions created by a culture of corruption and nepotism.
@@Oblivisci........ the funny thing is, while the outside world don't have access to retrieve information about China and vice versa, CCP's faction that belonged to Jiang Zemin faction (and which are against Xi) are always releasing their videos and information to give Xi a bad name. It might or not might give the full picture of whats happening in China ....
.... but after Premier Li Keqiang died and the sudden disappearance of many CCP and military officials like Li Shangfu ... you really dont have to use your full imagination of what's happening in China's politics.
@@Oblivisci........ Guess where I come from?
@@慎壹 You are from 北部九州
That’s just western properganda China economy is growing around 5% every year way faster than most western countries
China is facing a demographic problem. It's population is aging, diverting government money away from defense and eventually decreasing tax revenue. Not a major problem now, but a growing problem. So if China wants to invade, it has to be sooner rather than later
China builds way much more sea vessels than US and it is a huge problem for US.
"Chinese economic growth" On paper maybe, in reality it is the other way around. China's biggest money maker is gone, it's empty cities and buildings used for it's pyramid scheme housing market. With major western businesses pulling out of Hong Kong, China may see Taiwan as a last grasp effort to get back to a positive cash flow, which in the end will result in a disaster for China politically and globally as it will be blockaded from oil and food plus sanctions if it attacks Taiwan.
There is no scenario China takes Taiwan militarily. China absolutely depends on imports of food and oil and tech.
The PRC is famous for lying on GDP Numbers
The amount of chinese bots here is downright hilarious
I've literally only seen Westoids with their usual "MuHHH CHInA iS eViL" so far
@@zxera9702 prove it, coward. i DARE you to insult president xi. go ahead, call him winnie the pooh.
i guarantee you wont insult your "dear leader" mr chinese bot
@@zxera9702I mean it is with its horrible human rights Uygur Muslims being imprisonments and wanting to invade Taiwan
@@zxera9702wasn’t China the one who hid COVID deaths and lied about there numbers and tried to say 20-30 other countries had/created it 😂😂
@@zxera9702+5 social credit
They literally had to treat every us,uk,Japanese,korean, etc vessel in the vicinity like if they were operating with balloons in a room full of spikes, this is not Ukraine, the possibility of involvement of every one of those aforementioned participants could be catastrophic if they are given a reason to enter the conflict, China has the losing hand in this situation
Absolutely right, and theres even more countries in the area that would/will align with us.
@@mtmadigan82Either align with US or ignore China. India won't help China takes to there Border disputes. South Asia? They Ramed Vietnamese Fishing boats and China still Antagonizes much of South Asia.
There only Allies willing to help them is Russia. China Effectively surrounded itself with Enemies. Even Philippines when President Duterte Pivoted away from America and into China ended up quietly going back to China because China were just crap Allies.
Japan is also currently dramatically increasing the JSDF. They have also stated that it would most likely be forced to enter any conflict to ensure their own defense in the region. The PLA would likely have North Korea make noise to draw away support from South Korea but the other countries in the region would likely send some form of support.
The role of Japanese and Korean military in any Pacific conflict should be figured into the calculation.
I don't expect the US base of Okinawa to be safe.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
@@MrToubrouk Do you imagine a new Pearl Harbor from China?? They probably would need to first attack US directly but would they dare?
People forget one important thing their allies.... one has a lot, and the other really doesn't have any friends....
1. China needs the US.
2. The sea is too rough at the moment. The only realistic windows are in April and October.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
The Chinese bots in the comments LOL
只是在告诉你们真相
网络机器人领域是美国擅长的，几十年来试图通过控制互联网舆论对中国进行颜色革命
🤗
Yeah idk if this channel is just kinda crazy targeted by all bots, or if its just one of the few that doesnt bother to remove the bot spam and all this shit gets posted to every other channel too lmao.
@@meinnase你们为什么会认为那是机器人？如果中国真的想要使用机器人评论去试图影响你们，那么中国政府会让那些机器人使用英文评论而不是中文，事实是美国才是经常在中国网络雇佣大量机器人试图颜色革命中国的国家
As much as I hate to admit it, now would be the best time. China has the numbers and initiative. The US is trying to support two other conflicts, huge problems with service member recruiting and retention, and a home political environment that’s is the worst shame since the civil war. The longer china waits, the stronger the US becomes. They’re already pivoting away from Taiwan for semi conductors. The US would have to choose; Taiwan, Israel, or Ukraine.
🤣你们真的不了解国际形势，还在盲目的相信美国
中国要收回台湾只有两种情况:台湾宣布独立，那么中国将不惜代价发起统一战争。另一种是不战而屈人之兵，以最小代价和平统一。老外对中国人的想法一无所知。
Germany made that same assumption after Pearl Harbor and was wrong.
I doubt it would be any different with China.
@@stevenchoza6391 To be fair Chinas ability to negatively affect US capabilities compared to Nazi Germany in 1940s is bit more substantial.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
Great you're back. Something to look forward to watching tonight!!!
A huge majority of aid for Ukraine is spent internally in the US in the US arms industry. Like, over 90%.
Yes. Generally all military aid is a handout to US defense industries.
@@rexringtail471 Which is a good thing.
what i think ppl underestimate massively is that in the of a war going hot then the USA could ramp production to ridiculous amounts because they dont have to worry about storing those material.
Lol US lost almost all of its production capacity - factories are closed/ deconstructed/ people who know how to make stuff are retired and dead. Why produce something when you can print money?))))
I'm going to visit Taiwan in May of next year, wish me luck they don't invade at the same 🥶
99% they wouldn't. Guarantee.
chip? China has almost developed it.
Resources? What resources does Taiwan have.
money? Taiwan is not rich.
strategic location？The entire island is in firing range.
I'm don't know Why is China rushing to invade Taiwan.
@@apocainLike Venezuela vs Guyana, Russia vs Ukraine, or US and Iraq: their small dicked leaders need conflict to keep the power (reelection).
I think many bots are just jealous of the freedoms we have in the west and the freedoms taiwanese have.
@@apocain Almost develop != Develop. By that logic Korea has developed room temp superconductor and US developed nuclear fusion.
If China doesn't want to rush invading Taiwan, it means China supports Taiwan independence. 台独万岁
The Chinese GDP is nearly 40% overestimated. It’s odd not to take such a factor into account. When it comes to totalitarian regimes, taking their abilities and reports on paper as fact is like making these videos on rumor alone.
China is not a "totalitarian regime", and any person with a brain not full of American propaganda knows it, most especially those who visited, or do business with China.
As for trust in their reports... right, as if no Western government lies to their citizens on daily basis. It's a dangerous thing to only attribute a problem to one's opponent and refuse to see it in yourself. Perhaps, if more people were reasonable, they had seen how Ukraine was destined to backfire for the West from day 1.
@@shaftoe195 Not a totalitarian regime except you better not mock the government or dare protest with a blank piece of paper. China #1. 🤐
Except you have no evidence for that claim other than western hopium speculations.
Source: trust me bro
America already left the middle east to prepare for the great pacific scuffle.
Edit: i also think that the us can put a very heavy finger on the scales by just providing intel and equipment. For every foot soldier there are 10 people behind supporting him, and the US just providing that would make any army alot more combat effectiveness. Look at ukraine wars early days
Early days is the key word. Wars last a long time and your enemy will adapt. What happens then?
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
US literally said they will defend Taiwan.
There are two windows of opportunity the environmental factors allow for it: March/April and October. The weather and water depth/conditions are not favourable at other times of the year.
They're well aware that taking over TAiwanese industry is unlikely, but their primary goal is to use Taiwan to break out of the first island chain. If they do that, it will become far more difficult to contain them in the future. They have also made it very clear that they only consider Taiwan the first step in much wider expansionist plans.
@@SUPERPOWERCHINA_ Hah!
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
The Philippines is also keen on upgrading its own weapons (and is currently in the middle of build up never seen since WWII)so location isn't the only thing it can bring to the table. The only thing limiting Filipino forces are the tech and equipment. Most of their equipment was focused on domestic threats. They are well trained, have great doctrine and very experienced especially when it comes to urban and jungle guerilla warfare. The tech and equipment problem is easily solved by money so it's easy to resolve if things really go down the wire.
And unfortunately for China, they have successfully given the Philippines something that most Filipino leadership and elite have had the most trouble with achieving: National unity. Congratulations, you have turned an ambivalent west leaning middle power from neutrality to very much pro-Western now.
Don't make me laugh, their military budget is 4 billion this year , Jeff Bezos can afford a better army than theirs. They are nothing without the US military bases.
it's not Philippines, only the current president like to be someone's puppy.
The Philippines isn't even going to get involved in the war itself, let alone make a difference in it. That's the problem with western views of pretty much every other part of the world - they're so used to fighting far from home that it never strikes them what it means to actually live in the area and know that you're stuck having to deal with that. China will always be there, and win or lose, it has always been a major force in the region. It isn't going anywhere, but the US is. The US is transient, China is permanent. There's no long term benefit to the Philippines from making an enemy out of them, and nothing to be counted on from the US as it isn't actually from there and can leave at any time. The best thing the Philippines can do is to play the situation such that they don't have to deal with the consequences for the rest of the lifetime. Win or lose, making an enemy of China will only cause them trouble, while the US can always walk away regardless of the outcome. The west has long since lost appreciation of what it means to actually be risking more than geopolitical power.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn yeah but filipinos hates communism, its not the country, its the people itself, we will always strive for freedom not from aggression, and china has always been a bully instead of a leader, they are making enemies instead of alliance cause they wanna own everything instead of working together with the ph, so no, philippines will never back down even if we have to fight with sticks and stones, china can win the war, but setting foot on this country is a different matter, and no, china will not be there if war do breaks loose, cause taiwan exists to be a proxy government i bet most mainlanders would welcome a change on their leadership, thats why china needs to win it over first
Philliphines are building up from Bicycles to Rickshaws, never seen since world war 2
Nice animations, seems you have upgraded them a notch.
China will be concerned about 3 things - 1) Can it break the First Island Chain that is containing it. 2) Can it fight a war without adversely affecting its economic growth. 3) Will China "lose face" (like if Taiwan declares independence).
For (3), Taiwan, if prudent, will not provoke China by declaring independence. Tsai Ingwen was asked if Taiwan should declare independence. Her answer was that Taiwan was already Independent, and there is no need to declare it. So, Taiwan, if shrewd, will try to leave things as it is, status quo. (Which is how the rest of the world likes it!)
For (2), China has seen how the world... or the US-led world, has responded with sanctions against Russia. China can also expect the same, UNLESS China can take over Taiwan fast and decisively, within 2 weeks or less, so that sanctions, blockades, will have no time to affect China. Is there any evidence, that China can take Taiwan in two weeks or less? If US and Japan does not come to Taiwan's aid, China will eventually take Taiwan. But maybe not within 2 weeks.
For 1), this is China's overarching goal. Either take Taiwan, or the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, and break the First Island Chain. For the Diaoyu/Senkaku, China would be facing Japan. And the US and Japan has a Defence Treaty, which means that if Japan is attacked, the US will come to Japan's aid. With Taiwan, US's policy of Strategic Ambiguity allows China to nurse the hope that US may NOT come to Taiwan's aid. But that is a desperate hope at best. As much as China wants to break out of the First Island Chain, the US wants the Chain to keep China out of the Pacific. So the US will come to Taiwan's aid.
BUT the US does not want a shooting war with China. If the two biggest economy goes to war, the world will suffer. Already, the Ukraine war has caused food shortages, and inflation, and that is a limited war. What more, a China-US conflict... when elephants fight, grass gets trampled. The rest of the world is just grass to China and the US. So how does the US keep China from starting a shooting war.
First, make sure Taiwan acts prudently, and shrewdly. Hence the "Strategic Ambiguity". This is as much to tell Taiwan, "you don't try to start anything. I may not have your back. So don't go poking the bear... or the panda... or Winnie the Pooh!"
Second, be so overwhelmingly stronger (militarily) than China so that China will see that they have no chance of winning. This is no longer an option. China has grown stronger militarily. Maybe they are still not as powerful or capable as the US, but the US may not be able to "shock and awe" China anymore.
Third, if the US cannot win, make sure that China does not believe it can win or win easily. Let China's consideration be that they cannot win, will not win easily, but in addition will have ruined their economy and be subject to sanctions, that will wreck their economic growth for years.
Fourth, even if China is able to "win" a shooting war, it would be at a huge cost to China. Maybe they would lose half their naval assets including one or more (or all!) their aircraft carriers, economic assets (factories), ports, shipbuilding facilities, and maybe even the Three Gorges Dam. And the Taiwan that they have captured may be a devastated wasteland. No TSMC for them to exploit/use.
The US is "offering" the 3rd or 4th option to China now. China is facing a stalemate or a pyrrhic victory. Neither of which is of any use to China.
China will snap the ball even its not a successful operation. Since its only 85 miles across, what if China failed the first time, then launch 2nd, 3rd, and 4th invasion?
On the one hand, as you say, China has grown militarily. On the other, more and more information is leaking showing that their equipment and training is shit. And lots of their main arsenal is either imports or licensed versions from Russia. As we see in Ukraine, NATO equipment and doctrine is overwhelmingly better. It's also becoming increasingly clear that China suffers the same sort of corruption issues as Russia.
And the most important lesson from Ukraine is how a technologically and tactically superior, highly motivated defending army can hold off an army that mainly relies on overwhelming firepower and numbers. And that's on land, a few hours drive from Moscow itself. Imagine having most of, if not all, of the same issues but now the attack is conducted over the sea, with submarines and local air superiority due to chinese planes having to cross most of the sea to be effective while Taiwans airforce can take land, refuel and rearm and be back up in minutes. And that's without counting the massive American navy and airpower.
So even if they look mighty on paper, taking Taiwan will almost definitely NOT be a short affair, and the economic ramifications on China will be 10x worse than they are for Russia, since Russia doesn't have a massive population in desperate need of food and energy imports. I've heard that China has a 40 day supply of oil, and a significant chunk of its daily consumption will be completely blocked off the minute they move on Taiwan.
And we all know Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed and all the rest are just chomping at the bit to go pew pew with China.
All four of your four points are unrealistic now. There is no longer any room for strategic ambiguity. US position is CLEARLY “prevent unification at all cost ”, China knows that perfectly well now, and US knows China knows.
Military comparison is no longer in US favor close to Chinese shore, let alone overwhelming favor for US, and that trend is swinging more in China’s favor in short and medium term.
US can’t do that kind of damage to China unless it’s willing to risk a proportional response from China, which means an escalation to nuclear weapons. In any case, that accomplishes nothing except turn China into an arch enemy, and seriously damage US’s economy as a side effect. China will be able to rebuild, as Chinese have done so many times in its history. I don’t know if US could.
Very well written. Exactly my thoughts on all of this, put down so concisely. Bravo. 👍
@@xsu-is7vq wrote: "US position is CLEARLY “prevent unification at all cost"". US couldn't care less about unification. Or Democracy in Taiwan. Only about the integrity of the First Island Chain. I get your point. And in effect "voluntary re-unification" on the part of Taiwan would threaten or at least undermine US containment strategy. But because you argue from the point of "US preventing unification", you inform me of your bias and myopic perspective.
And you assert that ALL four of my points are unrealistic? That tells me your comprehension skills are sorely lacking, So... you're fine with Taiwan declaring independence tomorrow because without "strategic ambiguity", and because (in your words) US will "prevent unification at all cost", the US will support Taiwan's declaration of independence, and come to Taiwan's aid? Like I said, you do not understand my comments, or the intentions of the US or China for that matter.
In 1941 December some countries think usa cannot handle two front war and win is in their hand .After 4 year that's countries were Vanished .Never underestimate the usa manufacturing .
The USA’s manufacturing may not be as big as it used to be, but there’s still a lot of it, and it can still make a lot of weapons to fight with.
美国的制造业已经空心化，援助乌克兰的火药都是韩国造的😂这是一个残酷的现实！现在的美国只有金融泡沫，依靠美元霸权收割全世界！
“Never underestimate the Britain manufacturing！”，UK thought the same way back then.
@@minxia7337 😂😂 you should look at the US military budget and come back to me 😂😂😂
@@DadaduduxD china would never be able to complete with the US manufacturing capabilities
Hi. I am Chi Jing Ping. I thank Binkov for this analysis. We shall get to this ASAP.
Japan, USA, Philippines and SEA Nations said, "Go ahead and try us".
China: And who invited all of you?
Japan and Philippines: US forced me.
Like in Ukraine? Your help was very important (no)
@@eng3dYouve never been to japan or the philipines and youve never talked to one.
@@eng3d Oh do you see what's happening in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea? That's one of the hundred reasons why we are against Chinese aggression. Also, the US and Japan are our long-standing allies since after World War 2. I am a Filipino btw.
@@eng3d they never invited anyone but once they get in make sure they know how to escape.muslim territory never colonies by invaders
Problem is China has both a demographic and Economic problems that are now starting to be felt.
In all likelihood we will see China’s military expansion start to curb sooner or later.
no we won't
@@zxera9702 such a brilliant rebuttal.
然而真实的历史情况是，经济衰退并不会遏制战争，反而会计划矛盾并催生战争，就像二战一样。当然，这只是我一个机器人的理解😁
@@luther0013 you are coping because the Us also has massive debt and inflation problems
@@cristiii7605 the US debt to GDP ratio is half that China so China’s situation is a lot worse. While the Ukraine war has caused inflation all over the world that has mostly stabilised now, on the other hand China seems to have started a deflation spiral that could gut their economy. Not to mention China’s property bubble starting to burst and foreign investment fleeing.
I am not saying the US is in the best form but China has an actual chance at major economic collapse.
@chngcheehwee5433 - Lol, except Taiwan has a separate government its people pay taxes to, has separate laws, has different policies, has a separate military, etc. Mainland China ruled by the People's Republic of China can claim Taiwan is its territory all it wants but that doesn't change the fact that Taiwan a defacto independent country that is ruled by a completely different government under the Republic of China.
Would be interesting. China has no real experience since the Korean war. Their weapons technology is Russian based and we've seen how they work against 90s and early 00s US tech.
China is learning from Russia
China has developed self-technology, such as electric catapult, which is used in 003
Marshall Binkov, Confucius say, "F@ck around and find out."
14:00 This is a bad metric. We don't know how many warheads China actually has, they keep their ICBMs in deep underground bunkers and shuttle them around in tunnels underneath mountains. It's called the Underground Great Wall of China, and America has no analog to it. America still keeps their ICBMs in static, vulnerable silos whose locations are well documented. Plus, how many warheads they have on hand is pretty much useless. It's easy to ramp up production in the event of rising hostilities. Even Japan is a de-facto nuclear state, and can easily produce many warheads in the event that it actually needs to.
Many of the US warheads are in the sea
@@Terszel I was specifically talking about the land based ICBMs.
MIC is having the time of its life rn
Mic?
@@javilo2797Military Industrial Complex. Basically American weapon making companies.
More jobs and money for the US.
That's GOOD!
China is probably learnign a lot about the new relaities of war with the Russo Ukranian war. They are probably rushing to adapt with the lessons learned, but as soon as that is done a high risk may exist.
It's not China or even the CCP that needs to learn it. Since China is a one-man show, it's up to Komrade Xi Jimping to learn it and I don't know if he did.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
After France’s comments we should stop supporting Ukraine let the eu deal with this mess in its back yard
Except Ukraine has Biden over a barrel thanks to Hunter, the prodigal son. Give Ukraine and Zelenski some kudos for being smart, and knowing the only way they can hopefully survive Russia is get America behind them. And how dumb Biden is. Or greedy, take your pick.
@@johannjohann6523are they hiding another laptop with Hunter Biden's dick picks, or what? lmao
As a USN Veteran... I and other sailors practice in, evaluating our, and improving ourselves in attacks in S. Korea, but as I was close to retirement, we were discussing an invasion of Taiwan as well....
The point was they posed to me was .... "What If..." China were to go into Taiwan, how would you protect them?? I pointed out the same evaluation that you present here with Japan protecting the northern portion of the island, while the US, with Philippine co-operation, to the south of Taiwan in the same Bashi Channel....
Of course I got laughed at.....back in the mid-2000s.........Now I wonder, where those other sailors are??
USN Veteran
84 - 05
I don’t know you guys pass a iq test of 80. Tf do you even do on the ship? Clearing pipes doesn’t make you a military expert quit larding.
@@LOL-zu1zr I Think ..... You need to know that there is ... ' AN " before IQ.
As for Me.... I AM a USN Veteran, You P.O.-S!!!! Why don't you give blood on the next blood Drive........ OR.......
Donate some of your Time as a Volunteer in Your neighborhood for the next four (4) hours for the next six (6) days........ OR ....... Give monies to a homeless shelter ..... OR..... spend the next Sixteen (16) Years, teaching middle-school kids, then teach high-school for the next six (6) years after that.... AT The Same Time SERVING MY Country.
OR, you can keep Your Comments to somebody OR Sign Up and Enlist like I did as an 'Operations Specialist'..... Look it up and See Just HOW Smart I am.
Otherwise....get some 'Subs' and Post some Videos... and STOP playing games....."troller"
after watching your video about merkava tank i realized that all of this high tech weapons are BS in real time battles so based on that i give most of ur video 20% reality and the rest 80% based on american propaganda
Why is Merkava bullshit? I saw and heard they performed pretty good, they don't even have to fight other tanks there only RPGs, I would say they are not even being tested to their limitm
@@adi4u48821 i will just say wake up from your american propaganda go watch what happend to the merkava 4 in Lebanon 2006 wand what happening to it now in gazza over 150 merkava 4 already destroyed in gazza
Always a pleasure to get your take on things
Thank you Binkov for mentioning PPP in context of military spending. Many Many people ignore this for purposes of over stating US military spending for political purposes. Both Bernie Sanders left and Rand Paul right try to beat military spending down with tricks of this sort.
Taiwan is only Taiwan.
If anyone is interested:
PLN North [HQ Qingdao]
1 Aircraft Carrier, 18 Subs, 1 Cruiser, 9 Destroyers, 12 Frigates, 10 Corvettes, 2
Tank Landing Ships, 5 Medium Landing Ships, 18 Missile Patrol Craft
PLN East [HQ Ningbo]
18 Subs, 12 Destroyers, 23 Frigates, 19 Corvettes, 2 Amphibs, 16 Tank Landing Ships, 7 Medium Landing Ships, and 46 Missile Patrol Craft
PLN South [HQ Zhanjiang]
1 Carrier, 20 Subs, 11 Destroyers, 18
Frigates, 20 Corvettes, 4 Amphibs, 13 Tank Landing Ships, 9 Medium Landing Ships, and 22 Missile Patrol Craft
Their Navy isn't as aircraft focused as ours.
The reason being that PLAAF pilots have a hard time with simply just staying in the air.
So they've designed a very lightweight fleet based on Aerial denial, and a meat grinder island hopping strategy.
The southern fleet is designed for the Philippines. The eastern fleet is the primary defense and its main purpose is Taiwan. The northern fleet is their weakest, because they believe Russia will help them.
Cool comment 👍
Russia will help them, economically. So they get all the resources from Siberia.
Everything is fun and Game for China until India opens new front and Give access to USAF of it's Airbases near Chinese border.
i still think China is unlikely to actually start an invasion. we're talking about an army that has had no real combat experience for 40 plus years, composed of a lot of families only sons. couple this with the lack of respect for military service in traditional chinese culture, and we're talking about a potential collapse of the CCP even if they somehow manage to capture Taiwan. it's more advantageous for Xi to keep acting like he might start a war to rally domestic support and influence the upcoming Taiwanese election
What about a naval and air blockade of the island unless it agrees to One Country, Two Systems?
@@GoofusPlaysit's much easier for the US and partners to block off the strait of Malacca and cut off China's oil imports (minus the 10% coming from ESPO) than it is for the Chinese navy to blockade the entirety of Taiwan, most of which is well within missile range from Japan and the Philippines
last year was the best time for China to invade taiwan when Philippines President was in good or making good relations with China and was distancing themselves with the US
but that same Philippines President saw it coming PH on his last term that China is nothing but a huge liar so he went back to US
You're forgetting that Taiwan is 97% Han Chinese. The political division in Taiwan is so great that CCP can just play the good ol' Divide and Conquer tactic on the island.
@@StickyKeys187 why does taiwan need to be "conquered" by china, if they're the same people? why does CCP have the right to trash Taiwan and turn it into a shithole after COVID and destroying China's economy?
Xi watching this be like..: «ooh, didn’t think about that, but now that you say it…»
You can't comprehend just how incredibly difficult it would be for China to invade Taiwan. It would be the most complex military operation in human history. I don't think China is up to it.
中国要考虑的是如何后续管理，并且与美国脱钩，新中国如果在21世纪打响第一战，那么目标也不会是台湾，那样会中了美国的圈套，台湾在中国南方，而美国在中国的东北方向，所以如果中国动用武力，那么会是将日本这个美国军事基地送入石器时代，没有了日本台湾自然会乖乖接受和平统一，这背后需要复杂的手段才能实施，包括建立新的结算系统，准备好与美国脱钩，还有再继续等待中国的海军建设，时间站在拥有最大工业产能的中国一边
总之，你们都不懂地缘政治，台湾只是一个诱饵，中国如果要开战只会朝东北方向打，越往东北方向打离美国本土越近，而台湾在中国的南方，中国如果在台湾开战，那么太远离美国本土了，中国开战只会毁灭日本，因为日本是美国在亚洲的抓手点，是美国在亚洲最重要的军事基地，并且日本离关岛夏威夷阿拉斯加很近
If we don't consider the United States, we could have unified Taiwan 20 years ago, and in another 20 years, the United States will not be able to threaten China militarily
>Difficult
>Entire island is within range of MLRS, UAV and Helicopters.
Pick one brainlet
"the most complex military operation in human history"?? I don't think so. Taiwan is an island located just 100 miles off the coast of Mainland China. The PLA can pursue a plethora of strategies in order to incapacitate the vastly inferior Taiwanese defenses and invade Taiwan following that. If the US don't intervene, it will be a walk in the park for China. Fortunately, I don't think that China is planning to invade Taiwan any time soon.
to all the chinese imperialism out here.
as a taiwanses i'm not. and will never pay a drop of tax to your overlord
take that
You consider yourself Taiwanese even though your country is called the Republic of China? Even though the Republic of China's government considers itself the legitimate government of mainland China? Have you just abandoned your own history and homeland?
@@abe1996 The People's Republic of China forced the Republic of China to give up the "Legitimate government of China". Later, the Republic of China did not force others to call itself China, so it called itself Taiwan. The People's Republic of China has always been very good at engaging in cognitively ambiguous operations.
@@515615able They lost a war...
@@abe1996 Many people do not understand that no agreement has been signed since the outbreak of the war. In fact, it is still during the war, but it is just a freezing period (the two sides do not carry out any military operations).
If you want to say that losing control of the mainland is correct, but the war has not stopped yet, how can you say defeat.
@@abe1996 my life are far more and richer than history book
Don't override your values to other
I think around 2027 would be the perfect time for China. The reason is, it could be the war in Ukraine won't be over until 2027, and China would have its port in Pakistan ready. They need that, otherwise you could cut most of their supplies f.e. the strait of Malacca in the area of Indonesia. China's 3rd supercarrier would be ready and the 4th, "type 004", could be ready. China could increase their J-20 fleet from ~200 to 600+. They also convert their ferries into transport ships the military could use. I think, the 2030s would be too late for China to invade, so if they do it, I would expect they try it during the late 2020s, around 2027, after their port in Pakistan is completed and ready 🤷♂️
Interesting, however, the future will see China face multiple economic challenges, as I posted, elsewhere.
Good analysis! First time I've felt hopeful about the subject
Now Venezuela wants to attack Guyana. What timing.
good time. taywan-china, israel-palestine.you shouted there that we were Russian invaders, and you animals turned out to be even worse. When will the Moroccans get their territory back near the strait? Are they paying off?
Regional allies will play big and crucial part, the big question is the willingness of these said allies to help
a big one... because if the China controls the sea, they are all fked and becomes at best puppets at worst directly controlled by Xi. Nobody wants that.
we have been waiting..... for sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo long
I know this is outside the scope of this channel, but it seems that China might be sitting on a serious economic bubble. If it bursts, they're going to be on trouble.
I have no illusions that the Chinese economy won’t collapse if it stays its course, but considering how many times its managed from come back from its bubble economy “bursting” in the past, I would be more conservative on a time scale, as well as the speed and scope of its decline.
Everyone has always won against China when they took them seriously. Everyone has always lost against China when they were underestimated.
china collapse news are 2 decades old already, each year renewed to make them believable.
The present economy in China would not support your numbers. Considering it is thought that China has been cooking its books so to speak for at least the last decade. Another issue to take into account is the quality of all Chinas unproven combat systems and the quality of training that goes into using them.
Merry Christmas
Was rockets that are filled with water instead of fuel, and that's just the tip of the iceberg, they couldn't invade Ukraine.
Why would China want to alienate its two biggest trading partners - ASEAN and EU?
If China invaded Taiwan and the US intervened militarily would American companies still import Chinese goods? Imports from China make up around 15% of all imports into USA, mainly consumer electronics.
If you absolutely must go to war it helps if your opponent can't fight back. Invading Russia's Far East would serve China's geopolitical ambitions far better due to the immense mineral deposits in that region which Chinese industry desperately needs. Also, China has wanted control of the Amur region / Outer Manchuria returned to them far longer than it has been going after Taiwan.
The US is perfectly capable of fighting and winning two major wars on two different continents at the same time. Russia does not have that ability. It could not even help Armenia during the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.
In recent years many analysts have been looking at all the new vessels being constructed for the Chinese Navy and then trying to work out how they would be used against the navies of Taiwan, the Philippines, and the US.
Much head scratching ensued because while those vessels *could* be used in that way not all of the choices on the part of the Chinese navy made sense. It becomes a lot clearer when you realise the intended opponent is the Russian Pacific Fleet.
China building huge fleet to fight Russian? Russophobic Chinese? Is this a new thing now? Either you are genius or a complete jackass
The problem of the US is not technical but political. Maybe they would be capable to fight two major wars, but they simply dont have the political will anymore to do that.
After the Korean War in 1950, PRC was blocked by the US -led capitalist world.
After the Sino-Soviet Split in 1959, PRC was blocked by the Socialist world led by the Soviet Union.
After the Sino -Indian war in 1962, PRC was isolated by the Non -Alliance Movement world led by India.
CCP was fully involved in the Vietnam War in 1964.
CCP attacked India in 1967.
CCP attacked the Soviet Union 1969, and the nuclear crisis broke out between the two comrades.
Why did CCP became hostile to the United States, the Soviet Union, India, and their allies at the same time in the 1960s?
because freedom, independence, and security is above economy, you don't understand Chinese history and CCP at all.
When the first world, the second world, and the third world were hostile to China, does CCP compromise because of such containment?
It was Nixon running in Beijing to shake hands with Mao Zedong, then Mao Zedong reduced his assistance to Viet Cong.
China will not oppose Russia, unless two conditions occur:
1. Russia becomes pro -American and anti -China,
2. The United States collapsed and disintegrated.
@@abdillahazman7186yeah, I thought that too, Genius or Jackass. I can't decide which lol 😂
Logistics loves ships. Trains are a very poor second to ships. The closer you can get to a place by ship, the easier the logistics become.
US is not deeply involved in Ukraine. If it was the war would be over long ago. Of all the money for "aid" USA dedicated toward Ukraine, 90% is spent in the USA, rearming the USA and giving up the surplus to Ukraine. If you actually think about it that process makes the USA military more modern and better armed, which means stronger.
Kind of true, except the artillery shells, but I feel like USA mostly sent the old stock that needed disposing. The problem I see with the US though is they scrap extremely useful machines, like Bradley (can't confirm as I did not find a news source, but apparently USA are going ahead with their long term accepted plan of scrapping them) instead of sending them to Ukraine, where they are INSANELY advantageous against infantry and BTRs.
US at the end of the day speaks to Israel, which is why secondary conflicts is irrelevant as long as Gaza is a thing
Utter nonsense the west is literally out of ammunition for 155mm arty and the USA is teetering on social collapse, Russia is bankrupting us
Lol us and nato are out of ammo but nafo doggies are living in a fantasy world
@@madanbisht6 sure they are. Did you forget your medicine?
Is it me or is this looking like the 1930's again? In Europe Russia it's playing Germany's role in the Pacific China is looking to play Japan's role and in the Mediterranean Iran seems to try and play Italy's role.
Remember how it ends.
The parallels are striking. Thank goodness the new axis is far less competent then 2/3rds of the old one.
(Sorry Italians, but it's true.)
Ww2’s reason is ww1. And I think Iran is so weak😂 I think Indian has more possible. Cause Italy always surrendered before their friends lost. India also looks like Italy.
@@MrToubrouk i believe everyone appreciate how it ended but the way things are here if the US can't play the same role who will
@@reaperbsc very true less competent but also more lazy so it is worrying that they might just push the BIG RED BOTTOM if you know what I mean.
I love your in-depth videos, Binkov!
There are more factors though.
1. Japan is commited to defend Taiwan as well. They are the 3rd largest economy in the world and are currently increasing their military budgtet.
2. I don't think EU would completely stay out of it either. Even if the war in Ukraine is still going on. Even hesitant Germany has deployed a combat ship in the South "China" sea and flown a squadron of combat aircrafts to Australia for capability demonstration purposes in the last years.
There will never be a good time. Chinas economy is cooling down currently and it will probably only get worse. Fewer investments, corruption, demografic decline are all pulling the economy down. They will never take Taiwan.
"Japan is committed bla bla bla"
Japan wants another Sun to keep to grounded in reality? Japan can sure fight, but winning is something Japan won't.
Enough to dunk on the Chinese “navy”, they do.
Not anymore Germany has already taken over Japan as 3rd in the world and the another problem is the lack of investment in their own military capabilities and the aging population the things that Japan can do is defend thier own islands from any threat from china
@@Dorae-ur-momwith Japan, the United States, Australia, France, the UK, and probably the ROK, and the Philippines aiding Taiwan together i wish the Chinese the best of luck with their absolutely zero operational experience beyond border skirmishes since they got their asses handed to them in Vietnam in the 80s.
@@josephahner3031 maybe you forgot KOREAN WAR 😁
This is why the US has so many carriers-
And China loves that
It is why the Chinese run with their tails between their legs every time. Carrier group passes by!😂
Carriers are vulnerable, that's why they're building so many land bases in Philippines now.
Pointless video as China simply does not have an amphibious fleet to move any meaningful amount of men across the Taiwan straits.End of story. They are 10 years from any capability
You are so funny bro🤣🤣
@Dances-st6id大哥，你的脑子真聪明
You should read up on their roro ferries.
now is not the best time, as the two typhoons that recently hit china, destroyed (via flooding) alot of their grain that they were storing and hoarding (most likely for use in the invasion of taiwan in the future), not to mention they have a diesel fuel shortage which the chinese navy uses.
？？？？？你究竟每天在接受什么新闻啊？
中国的肥胖率都越来越高了，我们今年粮食产量达到7亿吨，至于海军的柴油那更加搞笑，中石化甚至每年偷偷卖给外国一亿吨原油，被政府发现后开除一些腐败员工
你所说的洪水对于百分之90的中国人来说甚至没有感受到，洪水只在北方几个城市发生，并且很快就消退，你不会看到一些天灾就认为整个中国都发生洪水吧？
中国的石油工业其实是在亏本开采的，目的只是为了随时保留石油开采技术，中国每天开采400万桶石油，如果发生战争中国当然不会出口任何商品，这也就意味着中国将因为停止出口商品而不需要使用太多石油，所以以中国的石油储量我们完全可以在战时每天在国内开采自己的石油达到800-1000万桶，那样足够全中国自己使用并且维持工业运转
Oh so that explains why their newest carrier is powered by steam boilers lol
I'm sure China is paying very close attention right now to Matt Gaetz et al, as well as the US congress deadlocks over funding for Ukraine.
What is so hard to understand. Tawain does not want to be a part of China.
No, China doesn't want the ChCP
There are maybe a dozen nations that recognize Taiwan to be independent and they are mostly obscure island nations. Taiwan is China. What is so hard to understand?
I think it's hard for some nationalists to understand. They seem to live in a fairy tale land. Or maybe they just are jealous that taiwanese have democracy and human rights, but they can only go after safe targets to avoid trouble.
China? I think you mean Western Taiwan.
Also the amount of Chinese propaganda is insane here lmao.
Western Taiwan? You know it's called the Republic of China, right? 😂
Read your history.
Yep, the guy who replied to you @abe1996 is likely a wumao. Obviously, your meme comment was lost on them.
@@abe1996 The meme is obviously lost on you/
@@Omi_Kasigi Obviously you didn't notice that he was saying "The Republic of China" (There's no "People's"), which is the official name of Taiwan. Wumao won't use this term.
@@NomadWalker-io3ne I did say "The Republic of China" is the official name of Taiwan, why are you correcting me with what I've said? If you want me to put it clearly, "Westen Taiwan" would be "Western Republic of China" in his argument. He never mention the word "People's" so you don't put it into his mouth.
You are just misunderstanding what people are trying to convey and then spamming the meme losing on everybody based on your poor understanding smh.
Yes! BINKOV!! 😃
LOV ya Comrad! 😘
Vastly overestimating the Paper Dragons abilities in modern combat.
Vastly underestimating enemies leads to Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and etc.
@@ahmedhussein1694 Iraq was taken fairly easy as was Afghanistan. Occupation is an entirely different manner. Ukraine and Russia are trading blows its not as one sided as people think. Vietnam is the exception even though their casualty rate was extremely higher, but they had the prior combat experience and they're a resilient adversary. They withheld France, US and China as well as spanked Cambodia. China has almost zero modern combat experience. And when you break down the actual numbers of the types of ships they are making and servicing the tonnage numbers do not mean anything.
No, the best time was 70 years ago. Doing it this century is pure foolishness.
Japanese Taiwan was occupied by the West in 1945 to 1952. The US had nuclear weapons. Mao wasn’t going to take on the West, and didn’t.
The problem with any potential China v Taiwan conflict is logistics. Amphibious invasions do not happen overnight. We can entertain the ongoing possibility of unintentional escalation in the Pacific for as long as we'd like, amidst as many international crises as we'd like. But if China actually wanted to "invade" and/or "take" Taiwan, there would be so many clear indications. Fuel being transported. Ammunition. Medical supplies. Ships. Mechanics.
The entirety of the US-Pacific alliance network would be clearly primed and alerted at this potential. If anyone is actively stupid enough to let this happen is another matter altogether. I simply insist that we would know it's a possibility.
If someone says that Taiwan is territory of the 中华人民共和国 or the People's Republic of China, they are incorrect.
Japan, Philippines, Korea and Taiwan. The most important thing is that those countries share common values: K-pop and ramen.
Too true!
Rice is power
The most valuable thing is RICE
There is also a Projection once the Philippines change it's Procurement law which will allow them to buy 2nd Hand Weaponry such as 2nd hand F16 which is cheaper, they might have atleast 60 F16 by 2026 or 2028 which will be a force multiplier in the Pacific War as they can be armed with AGM-84 Harpoon and it will also reduce Logistics strain as it as familiarity with the US
The Ramjet 155 Artillery round travels several times the distance of regular ammunition. Not only that, it can be steered to a certain degree remotely like a missile!
This increases the effective range of the proverbial King of Battle greatly!
Now, Heavy Artillery can be fired from the Island formerly known as Formosa and hit deep into Mainland Communist China!
And the Ramjet 155 ammunition inflicts less ware and tear on the gun barrel because less propellant charge is used than with regular ammunition as it is only necessary to put the Ramjet 155 round up to the speed that the ramjet can kick in.
Ramjet technology is relatively simple, but the adaptation to Artillery ammunition is only a recent achievement as was difficult to design a ramjet round that could withstand the forces of being fired in an Artillery piece.
Ramjet 155 Artillery ammunition is a game changer! Now, deeply entrenched Artillery in the mountainous regions of Taiwan can wreak havoc on any supply lines leading to an embarkation zone along the coast if the Chicomms decide to launch an invasion by sea.
I was an Artillery Fire-Direction Control Specialist in the US Army and a Heavy Mortarman. That's two of the three coordinating elements of the Indirect Fire Team. I've been out for a long time, so I recommend you interview 13-Echos who have gotten out of the Army more recently.
I am amazed that the significance of doubling and tripling the effective range of the King of Battle is receiving so little coverage.
Artillery will now be able to engage targets far more cheaply than expensive manned or unmanned aircraft, and with the remote steering capability of the Ramjet 155 rounds, they can be directed vertically on approach to their targets in order to achieve the High Angle Hell that Heavy Mortars are so greatly appreciated for in urban combat environments, and in extremely hilly terrain.
yes propaganda bot made today :D
Dope comment I’m gonna have to do some research 💪🇺🇸
Another guy commented that the ramjet 155 is still under development with Norway. I had read an article and didn't get that. I thought it was already in use. I don't know if they have any in use right now.@@connorscherer617
You need to add Venezuela invading Guyana to the list of reasons China might want to invade Taiwan rn.
So far they reached a settlement and the posturing has stoped.
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China should prepare but wait for another 11 months. If the funding to Ukraine truly weren't renewed at the start of 2024, then China should indeed attack as:
1) They would have the best chance of the USA simply backing down or giving up half way of the conflict
2) Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines would hesitate (to say the least) to join a conflict that the US might not see through, leaving them to deal with the consequences alone
3) Most of Europe wouldn't even react and even the UK might hesitate to provide more than a token assistance to the USA, let alone Taiwan.
4) The US election would put the US in a mess no matter how it turns out. If trump wins, starting the war under Biden would give the most chance to strike an easy deal with that incompetent buffoon to get everything China wants in exchange for a token peace deal and if Biden wins, the trump faction would still be in control of congress and even more willing to put the strategic interests of the USA on the side for the internal politic.
The western world won't unite against China if Ukraine turns out to be a catastrophic fiasco just because the USA, the leading country, simply gave up out of nowhere, grasping defeat out of the jaws of victory ;p.
But the most likely scenario is that the funding will be renewed and China would still better wait another 10-15 years (which doesn't take Xi's age into account though).
China has no war experience, and their Navy does not have the ability to travel far from China. There is still a significant military tech gap.
Remember: if the Titel and thumbnail is a question, the answer is always no!
Probably yes. I’m waiting for it for quite a while.
Narrator: Russia probably wont escalate the conflict..
Narrator: Iran probably wont escalate the conflict..
Random historical madman: Hold my beer..
*casually ignores the hundreds of times between both those incidents where countries did, in fact, choose to de-escalate*
well, its better to replace the taiwan's leader than invade. war is costly, so china will likely try to replace taiwanese leadership.
Something that I think isn't talked about enough when analyzing a potential US/China war is the time window's narrowness. China has a huge demographic problem, a large working age population that is nearing retirement within the next ~10-20 years. They don't have the replacement rate (birth rate + immigration) to compensate for this gap in their workforce and eventually, their army. Their birth rate is extremely low, likely a result of the old one/two child policy. If they act now, they might lose based on technology, if they wait, they may not have the fighting men to keep up. Europe is suffering from demographic problems too, as are many other countries. The only reason the US gains population each year is due to immigration and a low death rate. Just some interesting things to consider
[1] it will take 200 years for China to shrink to the size of US population of today.
[2] China total heads count is shrinking, China's colledge graduates are increasing yearly, in short, their society is getting smarter percentage wise even faster. Oh also, their universities don't dabble that much in litrature or art, 85% of degress are STEMs.
[3] china doesn't need Taiwan, China just needs Taiwan to be not independent. Also, Taiwan wants to be independent, She needs to change her name from "Republic of China" to something else. china actually likes the fact that Taiwan still calls herself "China" officially.
@ylstorage7085 #3 is flat wrong. Ever heard of the one China policy? It's joint, they both agree on it. Taiwan does not want to be independent, they want to be the only China. Nuanced difference but important to recognizing the political situation. Also it's not a matter of a shrinking population, it's the percentage of population retired. Size, in this case, isn't what I was referring to in terms of a demographic crisis. Also a degree in STEM doesn't mean anything in particular. It matters if they actually use their newly skilled labor pool properly.
@@andrewturkington369 Taiwan is not a one party state like China with the CCP, the current government, the DDP is pro-independence
@fishywafflefries Of course. But they haven't done it yet no? Wouldn't China also view a declaration of independence as a rebellion since they both officially claim to be the legitimate government of China. Though the current Gov is pro independence, Taiwan is still officially the Republic of China
@@fishywafflefries Watch HongKong slowly assimilate with the mainland China. Taiwan will be like HongKong. Peaceful reunification. Invasion is not necessary.
No way the massive, necessary buildup of troops for an amphibious landing operation would remain unnoticed for long.
This makes Operation Sea Lion sane by comparison
Hello Filipino here from the Philippines.
Indonesia & Malaysia never let Filipino bros fighting alone
Hello Filipino
Grow a spine and stop letting Chinese boats push you around.
@@asiberiantiger188 Hello
If you want to understand the massive effort it would take lets do a comparative analysis. It would be like D-Day, but let's scale that back and use Sicily as an example of invading an island of some what similar size and terrain. Defending forces for the Axis were about 250,000, roughly equivalent to Taiwan's active forces. The Allies used a total of 450,000 or so forces to eventually dislodge them in a little over a month of combat. The allies initially assault forces numbered about 160,000 men. It took 2,590 ships to land and support the invasion forces and nearly 4,000 aircraft in support. So as you can see, in order to invade Taiwan it would take a massive number of troops and ships, aircraft, etc. to even launch an invasion, let alone practice (a necessity) such an invasion unnoticed. One thing any invasion would not be, is a surprise. China has no experience at this type of operation. Even the United states that practices invasions from the sea couldn't pull this off with the currently available resources. It would take years to build up just the support ships needed. Any thing less would be disastrous for the invaders and tens of thousands of grieving family members who's loved ones were needlessly sacrificed. China's only chance would to blockade the island into to submission but even that is not as easy as it sounds in the face of the combined allied Naval and sea power.
also, the steady march of tech advantages the defender
d-day was meticulously planned with paratroopers and false landings as distractions after spreading misinformation to german spies - when the allies landed, the germans thought the real landings were fake and vice versa and responded badly
engage in a d-day style operation today and the spy satellites will see the buildup, the spy drones will see exactly where the landing craft are heading, and it would take one successful fpv drone per landing craft to completely stop the operation
make the transports bigger and better armored and suddenly you have higher costs and complex supply chain issues, you can't land as many troops per beach, and your troops are instead a prime target for anti-ship missiles
part of why d-day was even possible was the lack of precise weapons that could sink an offshore craft
Think AUKUS and allies would look towards advanced technologies before ground forces.
Numbers/quantity is a quality on it's own. However, whoever has better training, logistics, and actual experience are also factors that wins the battle.
I trust the analysts in China. If they thought now was a good time to invade, they would invade.
The problem is that no one takes the data the CCP gives out seriously. Even CCP officials take what the CCP says with a grain of salt.