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The year iPhone took over from Nokia, Nokia told investors they were expecting to sell 70mill phones... when I think of it I am still shocked how clueless they were that just around the corner was iPhone and they didn't know. You can't live off previous sales to predict new sales. Companies 50 or more years old go bankrupt.. it seems you're only as good as your last cook.. as chefs would say
@@mauriciocaviedes6520 Many countries are like this now, they used to buy Japanese cars but now they buy Chinese EVs mainly because EVs are in and ICE cars are out. Even non-Chinese EVs can't compete with Chinese EVs because Chinese EVs are better and lower prices.
@@dafkatan5459 in Europe, Byd complete salesflop....despite being sold via Toyota....., at least in the Benelux. Toyota nr2 in Europe after Vzw, just saying.
Yes. Reminds of Bob Dylan’s song Times They are a Changin’: Come gather 'round people Wherever you roam And admit that the waters Around you have grown And accept it that soon You'll be drenched to the bone If your time to you is worth savin' And you better start swimmin' Or you'll sink like a stone For the times they are a-changin' Yes indeed. Toyota better start swimming or they’ll sink like a stone!
So many interesting EVs now on the streets of Jakarta and the fit and finish is as good and if not superior to legacy cars. A city which is perfectly suited to traffic congestion.
Toyota and it seems most old cars manufacturer (be it american, european or asian) seems simply unwilling to make any real effort into EV when it comes to the price of the car. As long as they continue to try to sell 40k+$ car instead of focusing on 20k- cars (aka affordable car) then they will continue to lose against the chinese.
Even if those legacy car makers set up factories in China to produce EVs, they still can't compete with Chinese brands due to the Chinese being much more smarter, efficient, flexible and clever in their thinking, also the Chinese consider the most benefits for the lowest prices for the consumers. BYD may not make any profit now or maybe it does, regardless, it will be making huge profit when it sells tens of millions of cars per year. The estimated global demand for Chinese EVs will be 50 to 100 million cars per year.
So who says we need to play the China game? It's only you tech junkies that want to complete with China. We should just stick to gas or make hydrogen the energy needed, after all inst our dollar based on the Petro dollar .. why are we shooting ourselves on the foot.
I think it is not as much as 100:1 in Thailand. However, it is true that Tesla is lack of sellers (dealerships/showrooms) so it doesn't penetrate Thailand's provincial car markets much. BYD, MG, etc, has sellers in many provinces.
Tesla, Honda, and Toyota dealerships added Chinese brands here a year or two ago, and in he last few months turned exclusively to Chinese brands and dumped those others completely.
Sam, you are 100% correct if Toyota not adapting to EV quick enough for their stupidity. ICE car, truck, scooter, motorcycle, HD vehicle are still around but their footprint getting smaller and smaller year over year.
The chickens are finally coming home to roost at Toyota. 🐔 🐔 🐔 🐔 Declining quality, severe recalls, catastrophically defective turbo V6 and Corolla GR engines, failing transmissions, poorly-engineered BEVs and a recent scandal involving falsification of safety certification data. I'm not sure Toyota's lawyers or its prodigious global advertising budget can save it from the downward spiral this time.
Lack of Vision by management for Toyota did this not BYD , same as in Germany with VW ,BMW , and all the rest , no one to have a Vision ,oh wait there was one , but VW Fired Him , oh well .......
This happened to the british motorcycle industry, then the motor industry. This wave will topple all today's dinosaur car companies. Even tesla are under performing today!
In my country (NZ) the Rav 4 was top selling car (just beating the Ford Ranger). The issue is my country is anti EV with it's current government but at the same time our market is tiny in comparison to otherd in the world.
EV will come strong in NZ within the next 3 years, they will be much cheaper to buy and they are cheaper to run and maintain. Even though NZ produces oil it still imports 109K barrels per day and EVs will help NZ, hopefully your government will soon realize that.
Rapid advances in EV technology is the reason I choose to lease. In three years I expect my Ioniq 5 will no longer be state of the art. Here in the USA we will probably continue to be held back by politics but I'm in Southern California so I hope some of the road blocks will be mitigated. 😎 We shall see. These are exciting times.
Thanks for the insights. This heavily assumes a Toyota that is so full of hubris that they will not do anything in response to the threat to their market position -- if anything, the movements in the Japanese market already indicate that they are now in full panic mode over Chinese EVs and are moving to consolidate and regroup. Whether the Japanese has time on their side and if they still have it in them to innovate and leapfrog or at least maintain parity in terms of technology and manufacturing capability with the Chinese when it comes to EVs, remains to be seen.
Ten years ago, Japanese cars dominated the market in China, and Japan’s car industry was thriving globally. However, today, Chinese consumers proudly support their local brands, and Japanese car sales have declined globally-except in the U.S., where Chinese cars are banned due to being seen as a competitive threat.
Toyota HJ60 4-liter-6 cylinder Diesel - 115 horsepower, no electronics: it was running in 1995, 2005, 2015, 2025 - and it will be running by 2035. They knew how to make solid cars before legislation and trends obliged them to squeeze double the horsepower out of half the engine size with zero tolerances, light parts, plastic parts, turbos, electronic engine management. Electric engines are indeed simple to make and reliable with a few moving parts. Batteries on the other hand became a complex chemistry technology with 20000 parts, soldering points, a myriad of cables, cooling and heating systems, software controlled charging management. It´s not just Toyota and Nissan, all automakers except Tesla are 10 years behind the Chinese.
Like a lot of legacy auto they bought the consultants advice that US car sales would be over 24m in the USA in 2024, reality only 10m sold. So they have massive overcapacity they are paying for. So not workers getting overpaid but unaccountable "consultants" getting overpaid for bad advice. If the boards of these businesses did their jobs instead of "outsourcing it" and employing "sales only CEO's" maybe this would not have happened.
And the top-selling 'car' was the Ford Ranger. The 3rd and 4th best sellers were trucks too. Does this mean Kiwis prefer trucks now? Not exactly. Sales of new passenger cars were down 35% from 2023. SUVs were down 17%, but light commercials were up 3%. Conclusion - these trucks are mainly being bought for business use.
Not only China's EV is a game changer globally but China is also gradually emerging as supreme leader in 4.0 industrial revolution. _"My only advice is to join BRICS if you can't beat em "_
I had been on the Toyota train since my dad first got a Toyota Corolla when I was a kid in the 80's. My first electric is a Bolt and I'm never going back to ICE. As I've been learning about what Toyota is doing squandering their place in the market while pushing against EVs in policy makes me pretty sure I'll never buy another Toyota again.
Too bad the US still lacks affordable evs. Tesla is not affordable, not with its minimalism style. Meanwhile legacy brands are charging absurd prices for their cars AND repairs.
Geographically speaking, Australia is part of Asia, South East Asia where is the hub of the world economy now and in the future. It is a very lucky country.
Not a Toyota fan, but I think they will catch up much faster than you predict, Sam. Here are EV's sold so far this year in Norway (EVs are 94% of new cars). Looks great for Volkswagen and Toyota, but not so much for Tesla and BYD! 1. VOLKSWAGEN ID.4 - 237 2. TOYOTA BZ4X - 235 3. VOLKSWAGEN ID.3 - 229 4. VOLKSWAGEN ID.7 - 131 5. NISSAN NISSAN ARIYA - 123 ... 9. TESLA Model Y - 35 (by far the most sold in 2024). ... 21. BYD SEALION - 15 22. TESLA Model 3 - 13
Numbers dont give true scenarios. Those top 5.could be for fleet car or companies decision @ politics influence. It may change based on end consumers preferences & comparison.
If batteries last longer than the rest of the car, imagine how many used batteries will be available for use as domestic batteries in a few years time. Even if a used battery's capacity is only 50% of its original capacity it could still be used for a home if it were cheap enough. If that is not enough capacity use two batteries. Battery weight is an issue for a vehicle. It is not an issue for a home.
I have two Toyotas, both have more than 430,000 km on them, 24 years old. Both are in daily use and in perfect condition. The journey goes on and on...
Good stuff. I’m gonna guess you are an amazing owner and takes the right care with all the mechanical bits. But in reality there are very few cars now that would not enjoy that lifespan of taken care of. And I’m not talking just basic dealer servicing. Old school oil change that is frequent, that sort of stuff. It also helps that there is almost nothing complex in a Toyota. Unlike a BMW which has more complexity than is humanly manageable. Hence no one can maintain it even if they want to. 😂 but anyway, good to hear you are getting great use of your cars. Keep it up, world needs more like you
@@FrankiePo89 Many Westerners will continue to support Tesla even if they were lemons. Remember the days when Toyota (and pretty much every other Japanese car) were called sardine cans?
They need battery-packs. Chemoelectric systems, cooling/heating, voltage control, BMS ect... You did not remove complexity, you just transferred it from the engine to the "gastank"
Sam u keep talking about chinese evs. Toyota are a quality car company. U never mention reliability or quality. Toyota are proven so they could survive. But they need retrenchment to be smaller
Toyota are doing a roaring trade in hybrids. That will keep them going for the next 5 years. So they basically have that buffer to get their BEV and PHEV EREVs act together, and drop hydrogen like a hot potato. If however BEVs hit price parity earlier, then Toyota sales will drop off more quickly.
Hydrogen was never going to work. Costs a lot more than petrol and no infrastructure to distribute it. Every building has a power point or you can make your own electricity for bugger all and run your car for almost nothing. Not even a close contest.
@@cagejones7757 At the moment hybrids are mostly cheaper than most comparative BEVs and PHEVs, with the exception of the 51 and 64 MG4 during the price reduction. In a few years that may become true. Toyota hybrids are not that complex and apart from the traction battery needing replacing every 5-10 years, rarely fail. I know this because I drive a 20 year old Toyota hybrid.
Just the opposite! the middle east and Africa have more Sun than most of us. Solar is a very cheap way for those countries to get 'Home Grown' power with no obligation to import and buy ice fuel from some overseas regime, well, perhaps not if you are in Saudi. China is providing all the equipment for this to happen right now, and their vehicles will be much cheaper and more advanced in years to come. Importation of US and Euro vehicles will diminish when this gets underway, and it will.
Total assets on the balance sheet as of September 2024 : $624.50 Billion USD. According to Toyota's latest financial reports the company's total assets are $624.50 Billion USD.
An asset is what people are prepared to value it at, simple as that! An ice manufacturing plant has zero asset value in China because nobody wants this left over 20th century baggage. The rest of the world will follow this trend within the next decade, and that means their 'asset' value will be no more. This will be the biggest challenge in the future, what value do these plants actually have heading into the 2030's and beyond? and who will finance them? The answer is obvious.
Regional changes are occuring. China and Norway are doing things their own way. Toyota was #2 behind GM in the U.S. - Their ICE sales obliterate their EV sales.
Toyota, like a lot of the large manufacturers did. Would build a new model and with minimum changes it would have a 10 year life span. Now with all the new cars especially from China are changing daily and new models have a very short life. Toyota will need to adapt to the new norm. They will survive though as many people blindly walk into a showroom and keep buying them. I've owned 2 Toyota's, wouldn't own a third.
Globally, Toyota are still the number one car company by a long shot. You been predicting their demise for years, but it hasn't happened. They have been in the hybrid business for 20 years plus, and that is where the current consumer demand is.
It is inevitable. ICE market is shrinking. Toyota is doing well because they are able to make hybrids. But not for long. Soon BYD and SAIC will take that market share in all except US. North America is their only safe haven. Main reason they are going to be losing this is because they still are not serious about EV.
Toyota has to focus on EVs now, they can't wait, and it still may be too late for them, the bottom line is they probably won't be as large a car company as they now are
Toyota sales are up worldwide, in Australia they just smashed a sales record, where was your video on that?! BYD can’t even sell in the US, Toyota can.
Based on the provided debt-to-equity ratio of around 0.5-0.6, Toyota's financials appear to be healthy. This indicates a moderate level of debt compared to equity, suggesting that the company is not overly reliant on debt financing. However, it's important to consider other factors as well, such as: * Profitability: Toyota has consistently been profitable, generating strong cash flow. This allows the company to service its debt obligations and invest in future growth. * Cash Reserves: Toyota maintains substantial cash reserves, providing a buffer against potential financial challenges. * Industry Trends: The automotive industry is facing significant changes, such as the transition to electric vehicles. Toyota's ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial for its long-term financial health. Overall, while a single ratio like debt-to-equity doesn't provide a complete picture, the information available suggests that Toyota's financials are in a solid position.
Not really. Are their ICE production lines an asset or a liability? If they are viewed as the latter, then their financial position starts to look quite precarious.
Sam, I totally back you on this opinion. I have a background in the automotive industry, as well as F1. I witnessed their approach in those days and it is painfully conservative to the point of annoyance. Hence what you are highlighting to the car section and also why they could never have any success in f1. The reason they are reliable cars is because they use the same tech for much longer than any other brand and it’s well refined by then, but also obsolete. The change to EV has completely and utterly caught them out and their conservative approach will not be good for them as you highlighted. All they have left is this fictional consumer brand opinion that they are most reliable, which is probably true but let’s be real here, that would hold true for any brand if they never push the envelope. 😉 I’m not saying you can’t desire that in a brand, before people flame me, just be realistic about your brand. Look into marketing theory if you want to understand the reality of it. Good episode Sam. Hope the family is all good, best wishes.
Where did the information about Toyota's large debt come from? Toyota's financial status is very good, even the best compared to BYD and Tesla. Please provide information with data, not just assumptions.
Toyota debt is complicated, they do a lot of self finance on their vehicles, so this could be interpreted as 'debt'. but is not debt in the true sense.
Question, Toyotas success is mostly attributed to their high quality and reliability. They might be interpreted as conservative but so far it has worked great. Chinese manufacturers are very keen on showing of new technologies and the are a head already now many of the legacy car producers, like tesla. So the question is how is chinese quality and reliability?
That's why toyota is desperately willing to setup a tesla-like factory in Shanghai, to take advantage of the Chinese supply chain and software technology. They wanted to replicate the tesla myth.
Sales are great but you don't have to be an accountant to know, less expenses is what really matters. Are they making any money or just incurring more debt to make unprofitable sales?
It was no secret that China realized over a decade ago they could not compete with ice from Germany and the US. they went on their pathway to evs and told everybody as well. Nobody listened until a couple of years ago, and then --POW -- in plain sight they developed the ev way, and still no one took any notice until recently. Sleepless nights should have happened in 2014.
I thought GM was going to tank yet here we are years later near all time highs and their earnings keep going up? I thought they were dying in China and they were loosing money on every EV they sell....what is the deal here?
2025 Civic Hybrid is an example that the Japanese duel solution is better than dedicated EVs. The light-weight 4 cylinder that takes over at highway speed is more efficient than a dedicated EV.. I'm waiting for this solution to have plug-in capability and solid state battery before I buy into it (which should happen when battery prices tank).
civic uses a Chinese system. By 2027 a pure ev will be a no brainer, these are a stop gap and a way for people to ease into the ev world. Nothing wrong with that.
It is really sad to see downfall of a giant like Toyota. I was so disappointed to see Toyota never had a vision for EV even though every tech sound person will say EV is the only future when you compared to any mechanical system. It may take time but there is no other alternative. Toyota had the time, money, intelligence way ahead of Chinese companies. Now I am looking forward to whoever bringing a reliable EV. Not buying Tesla.
You made a big point about Toyota's debt. %90 Bad and %10 good. You explained the good debt but never explained what the bad debt consisted of? Anybody know what he was talking about?
Bad debt, as he's talking about, is debt that's directly senior to equity, with no collateralized asset. Finance debt, I wouldn't call it good, but the company won't lose money from necessarily, because they'll just repossess the asset - which is the vehicle. All car companies need finance debt because customers don't pay cash for cars most of the time.
that is great for the North American market, and ice will still be a part of that market for some time. However the rest of the world thinks differently as you will see in the next 5 years. .
it is a bit more complicated than that. Just look at new car sales in your country, and then look at how many vehicles are registered. It is plain that it will take decades to supplant the current vehicles on the road, and most of those are ice at the moment, very few countries have the 'Norway' effect, simply because they do not have the billions they made, and still make from OIL. Also a lot of the ev market segments are not viable at this stage. I live in NZ and there are no real ev delivery vans that are cost effective at this stage. I own a wildtrak and would love an ev version. The only prospect in the near future is the BYD Shark, and it does look the part, but it is a plug in hybrid, but can do over 80km on battery alone, which makes it quite desirable for shorter trips, and a total range of about 800km. When we get that with a pure ev, then things will really take off. Same with the last mile delivery vans, thanks to Timu etc the home delivery market is booming!
Hello BYD has been claimed to be closely tied to China's military. The current finance issues China has, tells me that BYD may be in financial trouble too. Regards
@@JKbang007 Thankyou for the comment. I am not convinced. What can you share? I have spent my life compensating for the failures of others. I will share that industrial China has performed in an amazing way. I have also experienced the failures. Regards
@@JKbang007 Hello! Thanks for the reply. I have bought BYD equipment. I think the company is solid. Companies and Governments are different. Still can we do business?
Can you give us an indication regarding how much of the explosive growth in EVs in general and BYD in particular is due to government subsidies and mandates? Or does it matter if there are government subsidies and mandates?
Many many government subsidies for ICE keeping petrol prices much lower than they would otherwise be, including the trillions spent on middle east wars. And the costs for climate change (both human and monetary) dwarf any EV incentives governments create.
What i dont understand is why noone talks about quality and reliability of chinese cars. Id rather pay a few grand more for a Toyota and have less issues in a few years time then having to replace various parts of chinese made car.
IMO, Toyota's reputation for quality is a big part of why they still have a chance. OTOH, their recent quality problems (new V6, transmissions, etc) couldn't have come at a worst time. Combined, it all seems very likely to take its toll on their brand reputation and that'll mean lost sales when they really need stable cash flow. Also, consider many upstart brands have broken into mature markets by competing on price over quality. Different consumers prioritize different things and some are ok with lower quality if the price is low enough that it's still a good value overall. When Hyundai first came the US, everyone knew their cars were way less reliable than Japanese cars, but people perceived a net overall value. Eventually, Hyundai improved quality and now competes on other things, but lower cost/lower quality was a perfectly viable market entry strategy.
I don't think Toyota is that bad off. I think your ignoring brand loyalty and how much it means to a consumer to have dealership repair locations. Look at GM quickly building some good products as an indicator of what Toyota is likely to do.
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The Nokia moment of the auto industry is coming sooner than many people would expect.
😮
@@peterhe7887omg! Well said. Toyotas conservative approach makes them the perfect Nokia of the automotive world
@@Pilch9Toyota has plenty of time peddling hybrids worldwide while they electrify cars. Many parts of the world are still barely buying ANY EVs
So did the original Nokia moment.
The year iPhone took over from Nokia, Nokia told investors they were expecting to sell 70mill phones... when I think of it I am still shocked how clueless they were that just around the corner was iPhone and they didn't know.
You can't live off previous sales to predict new sales. Companies 50 or more years old go bankrupt.. it seems you're only as good as your last cook.. as chefs would say
I'm my country Toyota was the number 1 seller for 3 decades. Now it's BYD! INSANE.
Which country pal?
@@mauriciocaviedes6520
Many countries are like this now, they used to buy Japanese cars but now they buy Chinese EVs mainly because EVs are in and ICE cars are out. Even non-Chinese EVs can't compete with Chinese EVs because Chinese EVs are better and lower prices.
China!
@@dafkatan5459 in Europe, Byd complete salesflop....despite being sold via Toyota....., at least in the Benelux. Toyota nr2 in Europe after Vzw, just saying.
@@avdp9095Guess you mean VW.
The times are changing and it will never be the same again.
And this is just the beginning.
Yes. Reminds of Bob Dylan’s song Times They are a Changin’:
Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin'
And you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'
Yes indeed. Toyota better start swimming or they’ll sink like a stone!
we live in interesting times.
So many interesting EVs now on the streets of Jakarta and the fit and finish is as good and if not superior to legacy cars. A city which is perfectly suited to traffic congestion.
Nah Daihatsus are a way better deal!
Are EV chargers available throughout Jakarta?
Any comments on the "myth" that EV batteries tend to exode or burn? Any believable stat's?
@@martinleung212 nope there was no report on explosion yet
@@martinleung212 its everywhere
Toyota and it seems most old cars manufacturer (be it american, european or asian) seems simply unwilling to make any real effort into EV when it comes to the price of the car. As long as they continue to try to sell 40k+$ car instead of focusing on 20k- cars (aka affordable car) then they will continue to lose against the chinese.
Even if those legacy car makers set up factories in China to produce EVs, they still can't compete with Chinese brands due to the Chinese being much more smarter, efficient, flexible and clever in their thinking, also the Chinese consider the most benefits for the lowest prices for the consumers. BYD may not make any profit now or maybe it does, regardless, it will be making huge profit when it sells tens of millions of cars per year. The estimated global demand for Chinese EVs will be 50 to 100 million cars per year.
We can’t get Chinese cars.
So who says we need to play the China game? It's only you tech junkies that want to complete with China. We should just stick to gas or make hydrogen the energy needed, after all inst our dollar based on the Petro dollar .. why are we shooting ourselves on the foot.
Thanks for these insights Sam, valuable!
Toyota keeps fooling itself about what the future of transportation is going to be.
Didn’t they preach hydrogen? What happened there? lol fools
the ostrich effect.
Wow. Kharmic retribution for the past 30 years of hubris and lying to the public is finally coming back to haunt Toyota...
Ironically Toyota was working with byd around 2018 for battery supply. Seeya Toyota, another Kodak moment.
Toyota....The Pride Before The Fall....
or the Prado before the fall.
In a few years later, there will be only 1 Japanese auto maker left, which is the combined of Toyota, Honda, Nissan and the rest.
I agree that it will be only Toyota soon. I think other brands are defunct or stop making ICE car rather than merged into Toyota.
Who would have thought all this stuff is being discussed! only 10 years ago it would have seemed unthinkable.
The only time I will recommend anyone to buy a Toyota is if they want a reliable used ICE car
Pre Toyoda as CEO (2009).
@@paulc6766
Exactly!
@Rubicon365
The Toyota of yore ain't the Toyota of today.
Many of Toyota/Lexus newer vehicles are no more reliable than other vehicle brands.
at least 10 years old.
I want to buy a Toyota hybrid but Toyota have massively increased prices. Happy to consider a BYD instead.
Have you seen Toyotas presentation on CES? That says it all.
BYD and China EV is outselling Tesla here in SE Asia in 2025 so far, a market of nearly 1-billion ppl, by over 100 to 1.
I think it is not as much as 100:1 in Thailand. However, it is true that Tesla is lack of sellers (dealerships/showrooms) so it doesn't penetrate Thailand's provincial car markets much. BYD, MG, etc, has sellers in many provinces.
Tesla, Honda, and Toyota dealerships added Chinese brands here a year or two ago, and in he last few months turned exclusively to Chinese brands and dumped those others completely.
Sam, you are 100% correct if Toyota not adapting to EV quick enough for their stupidity. ICE car, truck, scooter, motorcycle, HD vehicle are still around but their footprint getting smaller and smaller year over year.
Even they did it’s going to cost 100k plus
Toyota are having a lot of engine recalls because of engine failures.This has been since 2021.Tundra and Tacoma both have major recalls.
That new (2024) 4 banger turbo will kill the Toyota reputation for reliability, if you do buy, sell before power train warrenty expires.
Never count Toyota out. Their quality is still number one in the world. They will solve the problem,
The chickens are finally coming home to roost at Toyota. 🐔 🐔 🐔 🐔 Declining quality, severe recalls, catastrophically defective turbo V6 and Corolla GR engines, failing transmissions, poorly-engineered BEVs and a recent scandal involving falsification of safety certification data. I'm not sure Toyota's lawyers or its prodigious global advertising budget can save it from the downward spiral this time.
Lack of Vision by management for Toyota did this not BYD , same as in Germany with VW ,BMW , and all the rest , no one to have a Vision ,oh wait there was one , but VW Fired Him , oh well .......
Too good too loose profit from ICE cars , but they are declining technology just like Kodak rejected digital technologies…
This happened to the british motorcycle industry, then the motor industry. This wave will topple all today's dinosaur car companies. Even tesla are under performing today!
You do some great stuff mate ... Keep it up !
Thanks Mate! I appreciate it.
In my country (NZ) the Rav 4 was top selling car (just beating the Ford Ranger). The issue is my country is anti EV with it's current government but at the same time our market is tiny in comparison to otherd in the world.
EV will come strong in NZ within the next 3 years, they will be much cheaper to buy and they are cheaper to run and maintain.
Even though NZ produces oil it still imports 109K barrels per day and EVs will help NZ, hopefully your government will soon realize that.
@@casperhansen826 Ev is really friendly environment.
Sam, you are so funny. Zero zero 7, wake up, it's double O 7, like in Bond, James Bond😅😂
Rapid advances in EV technology is the reason I choose to lease. In three years I expect my Ioniq 5 will no longer be state of the art. Here in the USA we will probably continue to be held back by politics but I'm in Southern California so I hope some of the road blocks will be mitigated. 😎
We shall see. These are exciting times.
Doesn't have to be state of the art, just has to serve your needs.
It might be state of art, nothing 3yrs old would be, but it will continue to be fantastic for many many years...
Thanks for the insights. This heavily assumes a Toyota that is so full of hubris that they will not do anything in response to the threat to their market position -- if anything, the movements in the Japanese market already indicate that they are now in full panic mode over Chinese EVs and are moving to consolidate and regroup.
Whether the Japanese has time on their side and if they still have it in them to innovate and leapfrog or at least maintain parity in terms of technology and manufacturing capability with the Chinese when it comes to EVs, remains to be seen.
Ten years ago, Japanese cars dominated the market in China, and Japan’s car industry was thriving globally. However, today, Chinese consumers proudly support their local brands, and Japanese car sales have declined globally-except in the U.S., where Chinese cars are banned due to being seen as a competitive threat.
a sad loss for the US.
Toyota banked on hydrogen, and it backfired.
Toyota was out early with the Rav4 EV. What a disappoinment they didn't develop their EVs. Is the Toyota Mirai still sold?
Despite sales, Byd has no profits without the government subsidies.
Then it sounds like most car companies and their respective governments
Toyota HJ60 4-liter-6 cylinder Diesel - 115 horsepower, no electronics: it was running in 1995, 2005, 2015, 2025 - and it will be running by 2035. They knew how to make solid cars before legislation and trends obliged them to squeeze double the horsepower out of half the engine size with zero tolerances, light parts, plastic parts, turbos, electronic engine management. Electric engines are indeed simple to make and reliable with a few moving parts. Batteries on the other hand became a complex chemistry technology with 20000 parts, soldering points, a myriad of cables, cooling and heating systems, software controlled charging management. It´s not just Toyota and Nissan, all automakers except Tesla are 10 years behind the Chinese.
You don't accept the need for improved safety then.
Like a lot of legacy auto they bought the consultants advice that US car sales would be over 24m in the USA in 2024, reality only 10m sold. So they have massive overcapacity they are paying for. So not workers getting overpaid but unaccountable "consultants" getting overpaid for bad advice. If the boards of these businesses did their jobs instead of "outsourcing it" and employing "sales only CEO's" maybe this would not have happened.
Here in NZ in 2024 of the top ten best selling cars none were BEV's. It will be interesting to see if this changes this year.
And the top-selling 'car' was the Ford Ranger. The 3rd and 4th best sellers were trucks too. Does this mean Kiwis prefer trucks now? Not exactly. Sales of new passenger cars were down 35% from 2023. SUVs were down 17%, but light commercials were up 3%. Conclusion - these trucks are mainly being bought for business use.
What you're saying is insane. I also think it's correct.
like coal in the mining industry ICE manufacturers will go the same way Economists call then stranded assets
assets are a very nebulous creature, if you have an ice factory that nobody wants then this 'asset' is then a liability.
That is why Toyota made an EV together with Suzuki. They are all too small, while BYD and other chinese brands (Geely and SAIC) are huge.
That won't sound good for Japan economy.
Not only China's EV is a game changer globally but China is also gradually emerging as supreme leader in 4.0 industrial revolution. _"My only advice is to join BRICS if you can't beat em "_
That’s just stupid, China is scrambling from one crisis to the next. Their demographics and economics are in ruins 😂 tf you talking about
BRICS is more likely to go to war with each other than make their rivals rich. They don't play nice together.
Very true. This is just the beginning.
No thanks, but enjoy your Chinese car
I would sell all Toyota stock immediately. Pity stock in MG cannot be purchased as the company is 100% government owned.
I just wonder if selling Chinese sedans would finally kill off the market for these massive pickups here in the US.
Lol no. Big trucks are ego haulers
That maybe a joke. Sedan and pickup are totally different.
I will not hold my breath.
I had been on the Toyota train since my dad first got a Toyota Corolla when I was a kid in the 80's. My first electric is a Bolt and I'm never going back to ICE. As I've been learning about what Toyota is doing squandering their place in the market while pushing against EVs in policy makes me pretty sure I'll never buy another Toyota again.
Honda makes Civic
@pecanstamped4522 you're right, I asked him and it was a Corolla
I only owned one Toyota a Supra it was rapid but otherwise a shed
Too bad the US still lacks affordable evs. Tesla is not affordable, not with its minimalism style. Meanwhile legacy brands are charging absurd prices for their cars AND repairs.
Are you all rich in Australia? My 2 cars are 20 years old.
Geographically speaking, Australia is part of Asia, South East Asia where is the hub of the world economy now and in the future. It is a very lucky country.
I agree!
Not a Toyota fan, but I think they will catch up much faster than you predict, Sam. Here are EV's sold so far this year in Norway (EVs are 94% of new cars). Looks great for Volkswagen and Toyota, but not so much for Tesla and BYD!
1. VOLKSWAGEN ID.4 - 237
2. TOYOTA BZ4X - 235
3. VOLKSWAGEN ID.3 - 229
4. VOLKSWAGEN ID.7 - 131
5. NISSAN NISSAN ARIYA - 123
...
9. TESLA Model Y - 35 (by far the most sold in 2024).
...
21. BYD SEALION - 15
22. TESLA Model 3 - 13
Numbers dont give true scenarios. Those top 5.could be for fleet car or companies decision @ politics influence. It may change based on end consumers preferences & comparison.
I guess the pro-EV policies make legacy auto brands selling EVs and make legacy brands' fans buying them.
If Toyota sell plenty of evs in Norway, I say lucky for them, as nowhere else do they seem to have the same success.
If batteries last longer than the rest of the car, imagine how many used batteries will be available for use as domestic batteries in a few years time. Even if a used battery's capacity is only 50% of its original capacity it could still be used for a home if it were cheap enough. If that is not enough capacity use two batteries. Battery weight is an issue for a vehicle. It is not an issue for a home.
I have two Toyotas, both have more than 430,000 km on them, 24 years old. Both are in daily use and in perfect condition. The journey goes on and on...
Thats when they made good cars...
Until all the petrol stations close and they will because electricity is more profitable.
@ Not sure I have heard that before. Can you explain why?
Good stuff. I’m gonna guess you are an amazing owner and takes the right care with all the mechanical bits. But in reality there are very few cars now that would not enjoy that lifespan of taken care of. And I’m not talking just basic dealer servicing. Old school oil change that is frequent, that sort of stuff. It also helps that there is almost nothing complex in a Toyota. Unlike a BMW which has more complexity than is humanly manageable. Hence no one can maintain it even if they want to. 😂 but anyway, good to hear you are getting great use of your cars. Keep it up, world needs more like you
Yep, your 24 year old Toyota compares well with a new Tesla.. what a difficult choice
BYD has already finished-off Tesla in China (and possibly in other countries too) - now Toyota will also go down.
@@umtatraining
BYD has outsold Tesla, but Tesla is still pretty high up and not "finished off".
@@FrankiePo89 Many Westerners will continue to support Tesla even if they were lemons. Remember the days when Toyota (and pretty much every other Japanese car) were called sardine cans?
@@ysw8291
I like the competition. It is good for me as a consumer. But calling Tesla "finished off" is just so untrue.
Tesla is finished!It's a fact!Not growing in a fast growing global BEV market is a clear sign!Tesla is becoming fast irrelevant!
totally agree
Because u have zero understanding of Toyota finances , neither has this Viking
What reliability when ev cars don't need engines or gearbox
They need battery-packs. Chemoelectric systems, cooling/heating, voltage control, BMS ect... You did not remove complexity, you just transferred it from the engine to the "gastank"
Sam u keep talking about chinese evs. Toyota are a quality car company. U never mention reliability or quality. Toyota are proven so they could survive. But they need retrenchment to be smaller
just watch the latest Prado videos.
Toyota are doing a roaring trade in hybrids. That will keep them going for the next 5 years.
So they basically have that buffer to get their BEV and PHEV EREVs act together, and drop hydrogen like a hot potato.
If however BEVs hit price parity earlier, then Toyota sales will drop off more quickly.
Hybrids can't compete in price though as they are much more complex than pure EVs.
Hydrogen was never going to work. Costs a lot more than petrol and no infrastructure to distribute it. Every building has a power point or you can make your own electricity for bugger all and run your car for almost nothing. Not even a close contest.
@@cagejones7757 At the moment hybrids are mostly cheaper than most comparative BEVs and PHEVs, with the exception of the 51 and 64 MG4 during the price reduction. In a few years that may become true.
Toyota hybrids are not that complex and apart from the traction battery needing replacing every 5-10 years, rarely fail. I know this because I drive a 20 year old Toyota hybrid.
@@cagejones7757In a short run they can.
there always be a market for combustion engines the middle east and Africa, our transition to ev will take probably 30 -50 years
Just the opposite! the middle east and Africa have more Sun than most of us. Solar is a very cheap way for those countries to get 'Home Grown' power with no obligation to import and buy ice fuel from some overseas regime, well, perhaps not if you are in Saudi. China is providing all the equipment for this to happen right now, and their vehicles will be much cheaper and more advanced in years to come. Importation of US and Euro vehicles will diminish when this gets underway, and it will.
Truly terrible. They've been so loved for decades and are now building undersized crap with turbos. 😦😦😦😦
Total assets on the balance sheet as of September 2024 : $624.50 Billion USD. According to Toyota's latest financial reports the company's total assets are $624.50 Billion USD.
An asset is what people are prepared to value it at, simple as that! An ice manufacturing plant has zero asset value in China because nobody wants this left over 20th century baggage. The rest of the world will follow this trend within the next decade, and that means their 'asset' value will be no more. This will be the biggest challenge in the future, what value do these plants actually have heading into the 2030's and beyond? and who will finance them? The answer is obvious.
Great content! I would love to see a Hyundai Motor analyses. cheers! 🤩
Totally agree!!
Regional changes are occuring. China and Norway are doing things their own way. Toyota was #2 behind GM in the U.S. - Their ICE sales obliterate their EV sales.
Toyota ev sales?
I agree, I owned toyota and Lexus and would never buy a Toyota
Toyota, like a lot of the large manufacturers did. Would build a new model and with minimum changes it would have a 10 year life span. Now with all the new cars especially from China are changing daily and new models have a very short life. Toyota will need to adapt to the new norm. They will survive though as many people blindly walk into a showroom and keep buying them. I've owned 2 Toyota's, wouldn't own a third.
It’s the opposite in the UK. Prices have plummeted.
They just can't see it the bubbles burst for EVs. BYD there time will come, Oh such Joy.
Alot of car company will be like kodak.
Globally, Toyota are still the number one car company by a long shot. You been predicting their demise for years, but it hasn't happened. They have been in the hybrid business for 20 years plus, and that is where the current consumer demand is.
It is inevitable. ICE market is shrinking. Toyota is doing well because they are able to make hybrids. But not for long. Soon BYD and SAIC will take that market share in all except US. North America is their only safe haven. Main reason they are going to be losing this is because they still are not serious about EV.
time to move on from hybrid I predict.
Toyota GMed it.
Toyota has to focus on EVs now, they can't wait, and it still may be too late for them, the bottom line is they probably won't be as large a car company as they now are
The people who bought *Toyota* shares and/oe who lent *Toyota* money are about to _grab their ankles._
Why?
who are these people?
Toyota sales are up worldwide, in Australia they just smashed a sales record, where was your video on that?! BYD can’t even sell in the US, Toyota can.
Toyota had to lobby the government to put a 100% tax on the competition to survive. Same with VW in Europe
Sam you talking technology alone,what about reliability build quality, dealer network.backup etc
Can you kindly explain to us the viewers that Europe has passed a LAW that there will be no more combustion cars 🚗 sold in 2035
new ones.
@ thank you
Based on the provided debt-to-equity ratio of around 0.5-0.6, Toyota's financials appear to be healthy. This indicates a moderate level of debt compared to equity, suggesting that the company is not overly reliant on debt financing.
However, it's important to consider other factors as well, such as:
* Profitability: Toyota has consistently been profitable, generating strong cash flow. This allows the company to service its debt obligations and invest in future growth.
* Cash Reserves: Toyota maintains substantial cash reserves, providing a buffer against potential financial challenges.
* Industry Trends: The automotive industry is facing significant changes, such as the transition to electric vehicles. Toyota's ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial for its long-term financial health.
Overall, while a single ratio like debt-to-equity doesn't provide a complete picture, the information available suggests that Toyota's financials are in a solid position.
Not really. Are their ICE production lines an asset or a liability? If they are viewed as the latter, then their financial position starts to look quite precarious.
I wonder how many people will lament buying an EV if they live in the fire ravaged areas of Los Angeles and own an EV ?
In the large wildfire situation, EVERY cars are not safe.
Fuel cars caught fire too.
fire, does not know if the vehicle is an ev or an ice.
Sam, I totally back you on this opinion. I have a background in the automotive industry, as well as F1. I witnessed their approach in those days and it is painfully conservative to the point of annoyance. Hence what you are highlighting to the car section and also why they could never have any success in f1. The reason they are reliable cars is because they use the same tech for much longer than any other brand and it’s well refined by then, but also obsolete. The change to EV has completely and utterly caught them out and their conservative approach will not be good for them as you highlighted. All they have left is this fictional consumer brand opinion that they are most reliable, which is probably true but let’s be real here, that would hold true for any brand if they never push the envelope. 😉 I’m not saying you can’t desire that in a brand, before people flame me, just be realistic about your brand. Look into marketing theory if you want to understand the reality of it. Good episode Sam. Hope the family is all good, best wishes.
Where did the information about Toyota's large debt come from? Toyota's financial status is very good, even the best compared to BYD and Tesla. Please provide information with data, not just assumptions.
Toyota debt is complicated, they do a lot of self finance on their vehicles, so this could be interpreted as 'debt'. but is not debt in the true sense.
Not doubting you but would like to know how you reached to the numbers you mention of Debt and good vs bad debt? Any sources /links you can share?
it is a meaningless figure, forget it.
I am surprised BYD have not build a plant in Australia yet
You must be joking, too much tax and red tape and expensive energy.
And expensive labor cost.
@ Don’t blame the workers
it is not April the first is it?
Question, Toyotas success is mostly attributed to their high quality and reliability. They might be interpreted as conservative but so far it has worked great.
Chinese manufacturers are very keen on showing of new technologies and the are a head already now many of the legacy car producers, like tesla.
So the question is how is chinese quality and reliability?
Getting better each year. Look at owners’ reviews of the latest models versus those from 10 years ago.
@ where could I find owners reviews?
Hybrid or plug in hybrid is an answer for Toyota ? A possibility ?
That's why toyota is desperately willing to setup a tesla-like factory in Shanghai, to take advantage of the Chinese supply chain and software technology. They wanted to replicate the tesla myth.
Sales are great but you don't have to be an accountant to know, less expenses is what really matters. Are they making any money or just incurring more debt to make unprofitable sales?
Good video
Thanks
With brown outs occuring regularly how is the power system going to supply 90% of vehicles.
what country are you in, and is there 90% of your vehicles using electricity?
total debt 254 billion and asset 624 billion other site 1.008 trillion for toyota
this debt nonsense is just that, nonsense.
Chinese evs technology is giving the west and us sleepless night ..
It was no secret that China realized over a decade ago they could not compete with ice from Germany and the US. they went on their pathway to evs and told everybody as well. Nobody listened until a couple of years ago, and then --POW -- in plain sight they developed the ev way, and still no one took any notice until recently. Sleepless nights should have happened in 2014.
I thought GM was going to tank yet here we are years later near all time highs and their earnings keep going up? I thought they were dying in China and they were loosing money on every EV they sell....what is the deal here?
2025 Civic Hybrid is an example that the Japanese duel solution is better than dedicated EVs. The light-weight 4 cylinder that takes over at highway speed is more efficient than a dedicated EV.. I'm waiting for this solution to have plug-in capability and solid state battery before I buy into it (which should happen when battery prices tank).
civic uses a Chinese system. By 2027 a pure ev will be a no brainer, these are a stop gap and a way for people to ease into the ev world. Nothing wrong with that.
It is really sad to see downfall of a giant like Toyota. I was so disappointed to see Toyota never had a vision for EV even though every tech sound person will say EV is the only future when you compared to any mechanical system. It may take time but there is no other alternative. Toyota had the time, money, intelligence way ahead of Chinese companies. Now I am looking forward to whoever bringing a reliable EV. Not buying Tesla.
If Toyota is lending out money like a bank, those loans are not debt; they're assets. Doesn't change your overall argument though.
Why are Toyota factories in France increasing production of hybrid cars and hiring more French workers?
You made a big point about Toyota's debt. %90 Bad and %10 good. You explained the good debt but never explained what the bad debt consisted of? Anybody know what he was talking about?
Bad debt, as he's talking about, is debt that's directly senior to equity, with no collateralized asset.
Finance debt, I wouldn't call it good, but the company won't lose money from necessarily, because they'll just repossess the asset - which is the vehicle.
All car companies need finance debt because customers don't pay cash for cars most of the time.
Toyota knows ice will be here to stay for the next 10 years. Their cars are more suited to the North American market, where the profits are.
that is great for the North American market, and ice will still be a part of that market for some time. However the rest of the world thinks differently as you will see in the next 5 years.
.
As of the last quarter, Toyota Motor Corporation ADR's total debt was $254 billion. Here are some other details about Toyota's debt:
Nissan aren’t as big as Toyota so who can possibly save them when they get to where Nissan was? It’s basically bye bye Toyota :-)
Change happens pretty quick. EV are just superior and cheaper overall. The future is set.
it is a bit more complicated than that. Just look at new car sales in your country, and then look at how many vehicles are registered. It is plain that it will take decades to supplant the current vehicles on the road, and most of those are ice at the moment, very few countries have the 'Norway' effect, simply because they do not have the billions they made, and still make from OIL. Also a lot of the ev market segments are not viable at this stage. I live in NZ and there are no real ev delivery vans that are cost effective at this stage. I own a wildtrak and would love an ev version. The only prospect in the near future is the BYD Shark, and it does look the part, but it is a plug in hybrid, but can do over 80km on battery alone, which makes it quite desirable for shorter trips, and a total range of about 800km. When we get that with a pure ev, then things will really take off. Same with the last mile delivery vans, thanks to Timu etc the home delivery market is booming!
Hello BYD has been claimed to be closely tied to China's military. The current finance issues China has, tells me that BYD may be in financial trouble too. Regards
你这消息完全是瞎扯
@@JKbang007 Thankyou for the comment. I am not convinced. What can you share? I have spent my life compensating for the failures of others. I will share that industrial China has performed in an amazing way. I have also experienced the failures. Regards
@@nicksanta 你好，首先BYD不是国企，是私企。第二是财务困境的原因是比亚迪的快速扩张，要知道BYD2020年的销量为42.69万辆，2024年是400多万辆。翻了十倍。所以需要建厂，建厂就需要贷款审批土地。即使是这样，在中国买BYD也要等一个月左右才能交车。最重要的一点是BYD在中国只是平民车，真正的好的其他品牌还是只在国内销售。
@@JKbang007 Hello! Thanks for the reply. I have bought BYD equipment. I think the company is solid. Companies and Governments are different. Still can we do business?
@@nicksanta 抱歉，我没明白你最后一句是什么意思
Can you give us an indication regarding how much of the explosive growth in EVs in general and BYD in particular is due to government subsidies and mandates? Or does it matter if there are government subsidies and mandates?
Many many government subsidies for ICE keeping petrol prices much lower than they would otherwise be, including the trillions spent on middle east wars. And the costs for climate change (both human and monetary) dwarf any EV incentives governments create.
@jamesheartney9546 very good point. Thanks.
Toyota is the next Nissan.
BYD is the next Toyota.
Therefore, BYD is the next Nissan.
What i dont understand is why noone talks about quality and reliability of chinese cars. Id rather pay a few grand more for a Toyota and have less issues in a few years time then having to replace various parts of chinese made car.
IMO, Toyota's reputation for quality is a big part of why they still have a chance. OTOH, their recent quality problems (new V6, transmissions, etc) couldn't have come at a worst time. Combined, it all seems very likely to take its toll on their brand reputation and that'll mean lost sales when they really need stable cash flow.
Also, consider many upstart brands have broken into mature markets by competing on price over quality. Different consumers prioritize different things and some are ok with lower quality if the price is low enough that it's still a good value overall. When Hyundai first came the US, everyone knew their cars were way less reliable than Japanese cars, but people perceived a net overall value. Eventually, Hyundai improved quality and now competes on other things, but lower cost/lower quality was a perfectly viable market entry strategy.
that was true a few years ago, but having watched a few Prado reviews on Ausi channels recently, those days may be over.
If you look at actual owners’ reviews, BYDs look to have good reliability. Meanwhile Toyota’s fallen behind the Koreans in owners reviews.
I don't think Toyota is that bad off. I think your ignoring brand loyalty and how much it means to a consumer to have dealership repair locations. Look at GM quickly building some good products as an indicator of what Toyota is likely to do.