Turkey's $15 Billion Istanbul Canal Explained - TLDR News
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ต.ค. 2021
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President Erdogan has his heart set on (what even he calls a) crazy canal project. The $15 Billion new canals actually make more sense than you might think, significantly changing the control that Turkey will have over the region. So in this video we explain the problem the canal is trying to solve, why Erdogan thinks it's the right solution and if the $15B price tag for the Istanbul Canal will be worth it
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1 - www.economist.com/europe/2021...
2 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporu...)
3 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporu...)
4 - www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/over...
5 - etd.ohiolink.edu/apexprod/rws...
6 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...
7 - etd.ohiolink.edu/apexprod/rws...
8 - etd.ohiolink.edu/apexprod/rws...
9 - League of Nations, Treaty Series (1937). Treaties and International Engagements registered with the Secretariat of the League of Nations. (1936-1937 ed., Vol. CLXXIII, Sea. 4015, pages 215-241).
10 - www.economist.com/europe/2021...
11 - www.hurriyetdailynews.com/kana...
12 - www.economist.com/europe/2021...
13 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbu...
14 - www.economist.com/europe/2021...
15 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbu...
16 - www.scmp.com/news/world/europ...
17 - YolTV/status/1213...
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turkey should better invest 15 billion to give jobs to its young people, stabilize its currency and inflation.
the bosporus is not Suez, Gibraltar, Panama or the channel.
why do you statists always want government spending?
Totally agree!
@@berks.218 aynen knk devlet halka para dağıtsın bütün sorunlar çözülür :----)
are you literally that economically illiterate to think government can stop inflation by spending more money?
@@legaciestr the current turkish policy of systematic firing of economic ministers sure isn't helping
edit: or was it central bank directors? still bad tho
Hi TLDR Team - don't know if you have a chance to actually watch the full videos you post after editing but there are have recently been regular "glitches", repeating audio (probably after cutting during editing), and there have been some typos as well. I deeply enjoy your videos and would definitely place myself on the big fan list, and this is the only reason I'm mentioning it. Obviously you guys have to also build up subscribers and I know that video quality has always been important to you. Keep up the amazing work! Love watching and staying updated. 🙏
I too, have been saying something for a few vids now.
This isn't a new thing. They pump out increasing quantities of content and the proofing slips. Hopefully with a larger staff they can have a copyeditor review the videos, but at the moment it's so prevalent it's basically a meme.
Yup its becoming a regularity now.
Honestly, if it's just typos and some audio glitches, I could live with that. I'm more worried about the quality of the presented journalism - you know, the stuff I come here for because I don't already know. I don't want to be misinformed. If I could dictate what they should focus their quality control on, it would be the content and not the spelling and audio.
It's something they do on purpose in order to boost engagement in the comments, it always works really well, people love pointing out flaws
You forgot that Erdogan's nephew owns a LOT of the land right alongside where the canal is meant to be built meaning Erdogan's family are directly benefiting from its creation.
Ofc, but it also means it's cheaper and time efficient to build the canal
@@haruyanto8085 If it's buying land from a dictators nephew, it will almost certainly not be cheap.
@@ea9167 Don’t worry we are not going to live there anyways. Tall Guy will settle arabs there and he will arabify İstanbul.
@@ea9167 Knowing what sort of people Erdoğan and his family are, he won't need to pay that money
wait really? that is shady
I don’t think, That, at this Point, turkey‘s primary reasons are neither economic, nor power bargaining, but a) „winning“ in an international dispute and b) weakening the national struggle with the opposition, which power is concerned in Istanbul. If Istanbul gets less important, those opposing politicians lose power, too
@Kamen Rider Kuuga Because if he loses he will be trialed
There were several major mistakes such as ''Turkey doesn't earn anything from Turkish straits'' which couldn't be more wrong because Turkey actually charges money from every ship under pilotage services. However it is quite low, 3500 dollars average while Suez canal charges 307.000 dollars and Panama canal 180.000 dollars average. (Please keep in mind even if more ships passing through Turkish straits than Panama or Suez they are still quite smaller ships so even if Turkey was charging same rate as them it was still going to earn a lot less in average) Still legally there is absolutely nothing stopping Turkey from charging for example 50.000 dollars as pilotage service, in fact Turkey can revoke montreux convention entirely but the convention actually benefited Turkey greatly as it could prevent heavy military traffic without any headache for decades. And even Black sea countries don't have full access rather their submarines can't pass Turkish straits which gives Turkey absolute superiority both in Marmara sea and even Black sea. There was another nonsense in the video that Russia has very large navy in Black sea but once again it is false as Turkish navy is three times larger than Russian black sea navy and they don't operate many submaries for the reason i mentioned.
So Turkey doesn't need to build another canal to revoke nor demand revision for montroeux convention at all and actually can charge more money without any revision!! However this doesn't mean there are no problems with the convention, the worst one is dangerous cargo that as long as ships provide information about their dangerous cargo before they can freely pass through Turkish straits without needing any permission at all. For example that thousands of tons ammonium nitrate which caused Beirut explosion was actually coming from Georgia and it passed through Turkish straits before the ship had malfunctions in Beirut port and the cargo had to be unloaded!! So that decades old junk ship could have malfunctions in middle of Istanbul strait and same kind of explosion might have happened in middle of Istanbul where it would be much more deadlier as Istanbul is many times more populated. This is unacceptable in every way and many Turkish people expressed their opinion about dangerous cargo getting banned against monroeux convention in last decades..
Still does Turkey have to build another canal to ban dangerous cargo including oil and LNG?? NOPE, Turkey can ban any dangerous cargo right now, ofc this would hit Russia pretty bad and relations would get worsened severely but still they would have no choice but accepting it as completely revoking montreux convention would be much worse for Russia as western navies can freely enter Black sea, in fact some claim it is western powers who want the revision of montreux convention as Russia became quite aggressive in last years not Turkey at all!! Still there is an undeniable profit for Turkey which isn't toll money, isn't revision of montreux and allowing western navies pass into Black sea etc rather development of canal area. There are already new residential areas, bridges, roads etc planned and ruling party and their supporters will greatly benefit from those constructions which is why they insist for a new canal while using those arguments as an excuse...
@@ggoddkkiller1342 The last part of the last paragraph sounds horribly familiar. Greetings & goodwill from the UK where self serving politicians abound.
@@ggoddkkiller1342 Quick google check and it shows how you are wrong. Turkey can't charge passing ships and thus putting a toll is also out of a question. The rest I assume is also a fantasy.
"In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the
Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any formalities, except
as provided in Article 3 below. No taxes or charges other than those authorized by Annex I to the
present Convention shall be levied by the Turkish authorities on these vessels when passing in transit
without calling at a port in the Straits.
In order to facilitate the collection of these taxes or charges merchant vessels passing through the
Straits shall communicate to the officials at the stations referred to in Article 3 their name, nationality,
tonnage, destination and last port of call (provenance).
Pilotage and towage remain optional. "
Section I, Article 2 of the convection. Jeez, from where those 'know it all' come who are so quick to dismiss research of others as wrong and in their place just write pages upon pages of personal fantasies.
@@REgamesplayer You are a perfect example for your own accusations because you did a half research and jumped into an extremely wrong conclusion!! Here is the proof Turkey charges money indeed*. And this wasn't a part montreux convention, i don't remember when exactly (Im capable of admiting i don't know nor remember every damn thing unlike those ''amazing'' channels) but when accident rate was quite high Turkey issued mandatory pilotage service and started to charge money for it. Some countries protested about the change especially Black sea countries but because the service was quite cheap they accepted it without a long lasting crisis so next time do a better research before talking about fantasies...
Why is Erodgan still in power? He seems so out of touch ...
Because he won the last election
He shouldn't be, but he is very corrupt.
Because ignorant old & retired people just worship him no matter how many mistakes he makes, they are his loyal dogs. Also his relatives and loyal business partners keep supporting him because in return they get bribes and rewards. But the vast majority of youth volk is against them. We, on the other hand, believe in democracy and hopefully, we will get rid of all these idiots in a few years. Just don't consider all Turks similar to dogs supporting this corrupt government.
@@WizardyDinosaur He knows how to manipulate people with his media power and since Turkish people are also forgetful,they forgot what he said in the earlier years so they don't mind he's working with the Nationalist Movement Party which he opposed for a looong time
@@Flowshakers you are 100% correct
$15 billion for a canal? For twice that he could have had a completely disfunctional check and trace system.
Not to undercut the joke but the canal will end up costing a lot more than $15b.
Or he could build 1 mile of subway in NYC.
Yeah idk where you have gone to school but 15b for a canal is actually pretty cheap the panama canal which was the easiest one to build cost around 10 billion and they just build 1 canal not what turkey is planning which is canal plus alot of infrastructure projects around it.
@@aloevera7835 you seem to miss the irony mate, no sense of humour I take it. Uk spent £37billion on its covid check and trace which basically was useless. Don’t try and be clever.
@@neilmchardy9061 ''don't try and be clever'' fam you can't say this with your abuse of the english language xD cmn
Hoi4 players: I... I understood that reference.
Most of us thinking about the project as waste of the money. Especially in current economic situation. Yes most of the voters still support Erdoğan but not every action of him. Because of this his party lost the municipality of İstanbul in regional elections last year. I think changing Montreux convention and charging a passage fee from the trade ships much more logical then building a 15 billion canal.
How do you think Russia would react to that though? Perhaps there would be a sudden population of Russians living in Istanbul that needed "liberating"...
@@LittleJohnFish No, they're not. There is no big amount of Russians in İstanbul. Not even %1. But absolutely they're not happy with it and they have a good relationship Turkish Army. They threatening Erdoğan with a coup.
@@LittleJohnFish Turkey is NATO member lmao
we will have WW3 if Russia attack Turkey
Russia is pussy when face to face with west, they only want proxy war
@@LittleJohnFish You won XD
@@LittleJohnFish What a bad faith argument, you are both dismissing the naive populations elsewhere that might be Russian and looking down on the Turks as though they don't have their own independent thought.
Typical Western egotism, what a tool.
Well presented. As you mentioned, I think Turkey is aware of the pros and cons of the Montreux convention.
I believe the argument is more in terms of monetary gains, they just want to make money by letting people pass. There are other countries that are doing just that.
There were several major mistakes such as ''Turkey doesn't earn anything from Turkish straits'' which couldn't be more wrong because Turkey actually charges money from every ship under pilotage services. However it is quite low, 3500 dollars average while Suez canal charges 307.000 dollars and Panama canal 180.000 dollars average. (Please keep in mind even if more ships passing through Turkish straits than Panama or Suez they are still quite smaller ships so even if Turkey was charging same rate as them it was still going to earn a lot less in average) Still legally there is absolutely nothing stopping Turkey from charging for example 50.000 dollars as pilotage service, in fact Turkey can revoke montreux convention entirely but the convention actually benefited Turkey greatly as it could prevent heavy military traffic without any headache for decades. And even Black sea countries don't have full access rather their submarines can't pass Turkish straits which gives Turkey absolute superiority both in Marmara sea and even Black sea. There was another nonsense in the video that Russia has very large navy in Black sea but once again it is false as Turkish navy is three times larger than Russian black sea navy and they don't operate many submaries for the reason i mentioned.
So Turkey doesn't need to build another canal to revoke nor demand revision for montroeux convention at all and actually can charge more money without any revision!! However this doesn't mean there are no problems with the convention, the worst one is dangerous cargo that as long as ships provide information about their dangerous cargo before they can freely pass through Turkish straits without needing any permission at all. For example that thousands of tons ammonium nitrate which caused Beirut explosion was actually coming from Georgia and it passed through Turkish straits before the ship had malfunctions in Beirut port and the cargo had to be unloaded!! So that decades old junk ship could have malfunctions in middle of Istanbul strait and same kind of explosion might have happened in middle of Istanbul where it would be much more deadlier as Istanbul is many times more populated. This is unacceptable in every way and many Turkish people expressed their opinion about dangerous cargo getting banned against monroeux convention in last decades..
Still does Turkey have to build another canal to ban dangerous cargo including oil and LNG?? NOPE, Turkey can ban any dangerous cargo right now, ofc this would hit Russia pretty bad and relations would get worsened severely but still they would have no choice but accepting it as completely revoking montreux convention would be much worse for Russia as western navies can freely enter Black sea, in fact some claim it is western powers who want the revision of montreux convention as Russia became quite aggressive in last years not Turkey at all!! Still there is an undeniable profit for Turkey which isn't toll money, isn't revision of montreux and allowing western navies pass into Black sea etc rather development of canal area. There are already new residential areas, bridges, roads etc planned and ruling party and their supporters will greatly benefit from those constructions which is why they insist for a new canal while using those arguments as an excuse...
Had a constant thought: "is this a reupload because the content is so familiar"
It isn't, but real life lore made a video 3 months ago about the same canal
Progably they got paid again to make another anti-Turkish video.
@@BoBo-bq2os anti turkish? kanal istanbul is the stupidest thing humanity ever thought. If anything they were too soft on akp
@@baturalpyolcuu konuş aslanım 😎
@@baturalpyolcuu Let me tell you a story: When they first invented Personal Computers, A big company of at that time said that: That thing is not worthy, they will never be as popular as photocopy machines.
In terms of projected income from the canal: the Panama canal grosses about 2.7 Billion per year from 14.000 ships. So I think I get where the 8 Billion number comes from if there are 40.00 crossing per year through the dardanelles. However, the panama canal can ask a rather high fee since the alternative is quite costly in times of time and fuel (and thus money). If the alternative to the canal is just 14 hours (of maybe even a couple of days) of waiting, you won't be able to charge a very high fee for the canal.
Also, how will Turkey finance it?
How will they pay?Loans. Loans that the Turks will have to pay back via austerity policies. I'm sure the people would LOVE that.
They will create new city nearby canal via rich qatari investors
Turkye could do “safety inspections” on those boats. Of course they won’t be in a hurry so a boat could get stuck there for days if not weeks.
Also, how will Turkey finance it?= QATAR
Panama canal charges based on ship size and the cargo it's carrying. I doubt ships passing through Bosphorus are carrying the same volume of cargo.
Erdogan can announce that he is going to build a colony on Mars and his loyal dog...I MEAN followers, will always support him.
He's losing popularity in Turkey
*sad Elon Musk noises*
@@ninetyeight98809 yeah ik, my point was that a lot of uneducated people from the heart of Turkey support him on everything. It's the same with Viktor Orban, the "Prime Minister" of Hungary. He is corrupt but gets most of his support from poor suburban citizens that have never seen a better time in their lives, they know he is corrupt, but don't know anyone else, since he is blocking all of the opposition
The reason is: Ignorant old & retired people just worship him no matter how many mistakes he makes, they are his loyal dogs. Also his relatives and loyal business partners keep supporting him because in return they get bribes and rewards. But the vast majority of youth volk is against them. We, on the other hand, believe in democracy and hopefully, we will get rid of all these idiots in a few years.
Just don't consider all Turks similar to dogs supporting this corrupt government.
jeez some people are so annoying. so posh literally calling those who disagree with them dogs 🙄
9:17 the admin is a Liverpool fan 😂
There's an even crazier canal proposed, the Danube-Aegean canal, which would allow ships going between the black sea and the med to completely bypass Turkey by using the existing Danube-Black Sea canal, basically taking a detour through Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Greece.
This Canal woulcd cost Bulgaria and Romania but benefit Serbia, Macedonia and Greece. While Serbia and Macedonia would profit the most as they are currently landlocked. I seriously think that the EU should co-finance that canal and be co-owner the canals operating company for the first x amount of years.
This way the project could be financed and allow Chinese and Indian shipps a shorter route to the inner European waterway network with Rheine&Danube as it's backbone.
The quastion ist do we need to stabilize Serbia and Macedonia first or would the Channel and the income it provides help to stabilize democracy and lower the tensions in the Balkan?
Morava and Vardar rivers are too shallow and narrow to make this project possible. It would be an ecological disaster as well.
It's not really that crazy. It isn't imagined with ocean going ships in mind but river barges.
But ecological issues remain. Tho personally, I feel like activists are overreacting.
Canals seem to be making a comeback
That's never gonna happen lol
5:27 as a Turkish person I literally almost choked from laughing, we all truly felt that back then and still do to this day
Correction: Germany didn't sign the Treaty of Lausanne, it signed the Treaty of Versailes which similarly meant Germany couldn't have troops in Rhineland. Italy did sign the Treaty of Lausanne, but it did not include anything about restrictions on Italy.
The treaty of Versailes made Germany to not be able to even defend it self against an invasion and occupation by the Blegians. After the attrocities commited by them, there was no one left commiting to keep the count of troops down just to gibe the Belgians better chances...
Im no fan of Erdogan..... but the fact that Turkey makes NO money from the Bosphorus is kinda BS. Undermines the region's geographic advantages entirely. I'd say renegotiating so they make SOMETHING from it is perfectly reasonable
Heres the thing Bosphorus is a natural canal unlike Suez or Panama.
This problem exist. If there will be canal then it will boost trade in area. Capacity will increase but also traffic. Now only +14 hours profitable container ships pass canal. If they will increase capacity then it will bring more ships that wont stuck in +14 hours blockage. It will boost Russians or east Europe trade, but on Turkey's terms. It is easy not notice possibilities if there was even not created demand for service. Additionally Turkey could build lower bridges on existing path.
I will call the new Island, the Island of Constantinople.
*Deus Vult* has entered chat.
@Zaydan Naufal probably not, unless they called it the island of byzantis. Plus, Ottamans also called Istanbul Costantinople, only after Turkey became a thing was the name changed.
@Zaydan Naufal You should have said it will be claimed by the Greeks, because after all it would be an island in the eastern Mediterranean.
Istanbul was Constantinople...
Island of Istanbul is better
I just really want to point out the fact that Turkey could already be asking a toll for trade ships passing through the Bosporus if Erdogan just signed the Law of the Sea, an international treaty that allows every country to do basically whatever they want with their national water and would make the Montreux convention null. The reason why Erdogan won't sign it is because it will acknowledge Greek sovereignty over the Aegean sea. That's right, Erdogan would rather build a 45 billion useless canal than do something that benefits Greece in any way, even if it benefits him even more.
It's honestly insulting that officials elected by their own people would rather win in petty political disputes rather than improving the lives of the ones that elected them.
@@fancyhotdog2656 I don’t think it’s exactly petty to the Greeks and the turks, seeing as they have been in constant warfare for centuries
You are wrong. Because Montreux treaty already had good payment article based on gold. However Turkiye couldnt take that money from anyone due to Russian objections. And approval of law of sea convention will not nullify the Montreux convention, there is no such thing. Moreover any party country to that treaty including Turkiye could nullify Montreux anytime due to article of Montreux conventions itself.
Thats how diplomacy works
@@fancyhotdog2656 more often than not those officials are elected by people who are just as petty.
Video should've also mentioned the real estate part of the project. There will be a new megacity along the shores of the new canal, potentially increasing Istanbul's population to 25-30 million. The city already exceeded it's limits and is densely populated. But Erdogan's allies in the construction and real estate sectors NEED to have such opportunities to finance themselves in the current status of the ailing Turkish economy. There is a major reaction against this construction companies by the people. These companies has exemptions from taxes for example. The opposition leaders use this against Erdogan extensively. The most prominent actor against this canal is Ekrem Imamoglu, popular mayor of Istanbul and potential opponent of Erdogan in the future.
There is no opposition just pro feto pro Israel traitors
Can anyone explain why the number of transits is falling in the Bosporus?
same cargo hauled with larger ships decreasing ship number
@@zeti4102 you're sure or it's just a guess? It makes sense, mind you, but the alleged decrease in transit this video presents seems striking to me. It's a huge decrease in the lapse of two years (also very recent) and it baffles me why they've only been resorting now to the explanation you provided. I assume the number must've been even higher before 2017, but I don't know where to find that information.
@@cbs577 its not a trend value you know, russia beside oil or gas also exporting wheat and other agricultural cargo which can change time to time affecting numbers. Ukraine, Georgia, Romania and denub countries also uses the straits
@@zeti4102 thanks!
@@cbs577 new railways have been built to transfer some of the good
If you’re Turkey, and basically hopping from one financial crisis to another, it makes perfect sense.
You are gambling that the risks of warfare are minimal, such that the threat of a canal can renegotiate Montrose - the long-term payoff reaps your nation a several-fold ROI.
Turkey’s has no allies it won’t work
@@sean5350 that's a symptom of being powerful.
The last time I checked Turkey had the fastest growing economy from 2003 till covid struck. Western countries every 2 years have economic crisis
@@theancientsancients1769 false it dosent even have the fastest growing economy in Europe
You haven't mentioned that the instanbul's medical safety agency has started loooooong inspections of travelling vessels that navigate through the bosphorous... If this continues the new channel would be used by a lot of ships that want to avoid even longer than 14h of waiting.
I'm struggling with "Bosporus" after a lifetime of hearing "Bosphorus".
Dawg look at my president i’m gonna stay in poverty forever
you should
@@aloevera7835 😞
It might not be the best use of money, but in a rare defense of Erdogan, I will say that building infrastructure is almost always a good idea and has long-term benefits (as long as it isn't likely to become obsolete). If a canal is built, it may take a long time to a pay for itself, but a hundred years from now trade by ships is almost certainly still going to be extremely important, and the canal will still be there, constantly providing its service of making travel through the strait easier. Infrastructure investment can be a classic case of planting a tree, in whose shade you will never get to sit yourself, but from which future generations will benefit.
Of course, there are other aspects to this, such as whether the canal is really the best infrastructure project that the money could be spent on (which it almost certainly isn't), whether the money will actually be used for the canal or just go into the pockets of corrupt officials, and so on.
Infrastructure is only good if it improves productivity. There's plenty of useless infrastructure projects around.
@@aussietom85 Of course, digging random holes just for fun with no intended use isn't doing anyone any good. Or building a road nowhere like in Montenegro. So you're correct, not just building infrastructure is good, it has to have some sort of benefit. My point is that even if the infrastructure takes a long time to pay for itself, it can still be worth it if it doesn't cost much maintentance and keeps bringing in benefit for a long time.
Why would building the canal force discussions on the Montreux convention? Sure, they could charge tolls for people using the new canal, but wouldn't they still be prohibited from restricting travel through the natural routes?
Imagine you lived in a village had a road that went over a mountain to get to the city, that is free to use. Now, the local buisness man that maintains the road decides to build a tunnel that cuts the travel time by a ridiculous margin and you didn't have to pay a lot of money to use. Kind of makes the first road unappealing doesn't it?
@@TheMajorpickle01 I can get why Turkey would _want_ people to use the toll road, and I get why they would _want_ to force a renegotiation on the treaty. My point though is that if the treaty says "you aren't allowed to mess with the natural waterways," then building a canal would not suddenly allow them to "mess with the waterways if you like." They should still be required to leave those natural waterways unobstructed and allow nature to takes its course.
Realistically, if the current average wait time is, say, ten hours, and they do build the canal, and some portion of the traffic decides to pay to use it, then that would actually _reduce_ the traffic on the natural routes, reducing wait times even further, so they might go away completely, causing people to not use the toll lane, causing wait times to go up, etc. ;) But either way, they should never end up higher than they would be without the canal.
Tim Ogul There are other ways to restrict travel without entirely blocking the straight. Sinking a large barge in the middle would force other ship to slowdown and navigate around the obstacle. And they can make the sinking looks like an accident. When that happen Turkey can then make it very expensive for anyone to clean up the obstruction.
just increase local traffic small boats ferry increase inspections on trade ships and bureaucracy etc with that wait time can be 2-3 days. ships that carry lng, petrol or chemicals can be stopped for 'environmental' reasons and foced to use canal
It'd be faster to go through the new Canal, this is to the interest of shipping companies, saves them a lot
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I get the issues associated with it, but at the same time I also get why Turkey would be so keen on scrapping the convention. Imagine your country being naturally blessed by such a figurative goldmine but then having other remote countries decide that you cannot make a penny on it.
One thing you miss is that Turkey could close the straights for environmental analysis or something similar which would force people to take the İstanbul kanal. They could take their sweet time making it harder and more financially straining to wait for the straighs to open. And this could be routine to add more obstacles. I don't believe this is far fetched.
And what is the policies in Gibraltar cross from Atlantic to mediterranean?
Gibraltar makes money by charging less than Spanish ports for docking, not by charging any tolls
They will slow the traffic through the Bosporus to a snails pace, forcing almost all ships through the new canal
Wow, I had to pull out a map of my own since it's been ages since I heard Dardanelles and Bosporus mentioned... They definitely featured in History classes!
Interesting issue with many layers. Thank you for sharing.
Great video!
just to be clear, the promo code is ISTANBUL not CONSTANTINOPLE
🎵 why did CONSTANTINOPLE get the works? thats nobodys business but the tuuuurks 🎶
I'd say building a whole new Canal is pretty much impractical. But i do agree that as the nation the strait is at, Turkey, should have more say and freedom on the strait. So the renegotiation is imo the most stonks option.
You can count Republic of Moldova too. They have direct access to the Black Sea thru the Danube river. They have a maritime port at Giurgiulesti.
There were several major mistakes such as ''Turkey doesn't earn anything from Turkish straits'' which couldn't be more wrong because Turkey actually charges money from every ship under pilotage services. However it is quite low, 3500 dollars average while Suez canal charges 307.000 dollars and Panama canal 180.000 dollars average. (Please keep in mind even if more ships passing through Turkish straits than Panama or Suez they are still quite smaller ships so even if Turkey was charging same rate as them it was still going to earn a lot less in average) Still legally there is absolutely nothing stopping Turkey from charging for example 50.000 dollars as pilotage service, in fact Turkey can revoke montreux convention entirely but the convention actually benefited Turkey greatly as it could prevent heavy military traffic without any headache for decades. And even Black sea countries don't have full access rather their submarines can't pass Turkish straits which gives Turkey absolute superiority both in Marmara sea and even Black sea. There was another nonsense in the video that Russia has very large navy in Black sea but once again it is false as Turkish navy is three times larger than Russian black sea navy and they don't operate many submaries for the reason i mentioned.
So Turkey doesn't need to build another canal to revoke nor demand revision for montroeux convention at all and actually can charge more money without any revision!! However this doesn't mean there are no problems with the convention, the worst one is dangerous cargo that as long as ships provide information about their dangerous cargo before they can freely pass through Turkish straits without needing any permission at all. For example that thousands of tons ammonium nitrate which caused Beirut explosion was actually coming from Georgia and it passed through Turkish straits before the ship had malfunctions in Beirut port and the cargo had to be unloaded!! So that decades old junk ship could have malfunctions in middle of Istanbul strait and same kind of explosion might have happened in middle of Istanbul where it would be much more deadlier as Istanbul is many times more populated. This is unacceptable in every way and many Turkish people expressed their opinion about dangerous cargo getting banned against monroeux convention in last decades..
Still does Turkey have to build another canal to ban dangerous cargo including oil and LNG?? NOPE, Turkey can ban any dangerous cargo right now, ofc this would hit Russia pretty bad and relations would get worsened severely but still they would have no choice but accepting it as completely revoking montreux convention would be much worse for Russia as western navies can freely enter Black sea, in fact some claim it is western powers who want the revision of montreux convention as Russia became quite aggressive in last years not Turkey at all!! Still there is an undeniable profit for Turkey which isn't toll money, isn't revision of montreux and allowing western navies pass into Black sea etc rather development of canal area. There are already new residential areas, bridges, roads etc planned and ruling party and their supporters will greatly benefit from those constructions which is why they insist for a new canal while using those arguments as an excuse...
Only $307 for suez ?
@@joel.j5637 307 thousand dollars mate.
@@ggoddkkiller1342 oh, shouldn’t it be $307,000 not 307.000
@@joel.j5637 Yeah, it should in English. In my country it is opposite so i often confuse them :)
It's a defence measure as well.
This canel will set Turkey well in to the future. Allowing greater flexibility and, income stream far beyond the investment. Canel Instanbul is a smart move for Turkey.
Yes and if done too early, it can damage Turkey badly.
They should call it Mustafa Kanal
I mean if it has stood the test of time then as the old phase goes"If it isn't broken then there's no need to fix it or improve it or reform it"
Part about the money. Maybe this can also be used as leverage with regards to the expiry of the rest of the Lausanne agreement.
This also includes the current sea borders of Turkey and certain commodity embargos.
One of which is gas, hence the resent "discovery" of gas deposits in an area where Romania & Bulgaria have been mining for gas for ages already.
This 2023 era is massively important for Turkey and its financial future. Probably also for Erdogan's future.
Weren't negotiations to admit Turkey into the EU stalled in 2018? They must be seeking leverage or new alliances.
Re negotiate the treaty or we will make the Bosphorus difficult to use and force to use cannel Istanbul. Great plan to counter that damn conversation.
that is may be right, that the new canal is not really beneficial economically, but most importantly is the new political and martial position for the turkey.
if you want to build an empire not just a strong country, you have to find a way to force your will on the big boys like USA and Russia.
on the short-term the canal is not really important, but on the long term, it is really really important to have pressure cards on everyone.
Honestly, it seems to me like it's Turkey's territory, and "yeah, but we really need it" isn't a good counter-argument on the part of any other country.
Erdogan's political life will not be sufficient to build this canal. And the opposition already warned local and foreign investors that any funds invested in the canal will not be paid back by the new government.
And this is exactly the reason why the canal project seems to be on hold, and investors are not interested in risking any assets.
The opposition are traitors bad mouthing their country to foreigners and conspiring against the great Turkish state interest !
@@theancientsancients1769 "They warned LOCAL and FOREIGN investors" What's your point? If not member of Erdogan's party.
Renegotiate treaty and save economic and environmental impact of canal
Can't, it's a interest of the US to maintain it, in order to prevent Russia from sending it's military ships through the Bosporus to the black sea
@@haruyanto8085 lmao, it doesn't restrict Russia ship because Russia is Black Sea Country but it restrict US Ship because US is Non-black sea country
it'll pay off in the end, these things always look farsighted afterwards when the problems have vanished from view, but it's odd to run it through the city and not worth the bill given Turkey's financial state now...
It's not being run through the city. It's being run west of the city. And actually people don't really know this but the Turkish state is devaluing it's currency on purpose to the US dollar. Because they are trying to capture the manufacturing market in Europe and the US. Especially because of Brexit, a lot of the finance and manufacturing is shifting to Turkey. If the currency is lower, it will be cheaper to operate there.
People think the Turkish economy and currency are doing really bad but they don't see that Erodgan is playing 4d chess with everyone.
Things always look farsighted after they have gone through bankruptcy and the current owners only have to pay operating costs, and the world as a whole is worse off. Except when they don't because the decisions are so bad that the assets just get abandoned.
@@yorgenibnstrangle3072 finally someone said it!! Please try to explain this to the young generations of turkey who thinks devalued currency means failing economy. It’s sad that more people can’t see how smart Erdogan really is and how his decisions are elevating turkey to world power status.
@@burakakyildiz9440 Yeah it is sad. And to be honest, the currency shift is hurting some people right now. That's why they are angry with Erdogan. But they didn't study economics like I did and they don't know the long benefits it will have on them. I really do hope Erdogan manages to hold on to power. I fear what will come to the nation if he ever loses it.
@@yorgenibnstrangle3072 yes the current high market prices are hurting them. And Hopefully he will implement policies that will ease the prices on domestic production. But the long term benefits of increased production, manufacturing, and higher exports with lower imports will be worth it in the end. I just hope they can see Erdogan’s strategic plan. The people of Turkey have overcome far worse circumstances. The one thing about Turkish people is that they will always gather behind a strong leader and support him. They proved that in 2016 by stopping the coup attempt. Erdogan has won over the hearts of the people which is why he has never lost an election and hopefully never will.
6:40 while there may not have been any deadly accidents there have definitely been accidents which have caused damage to both the infrastructure and natural environment of the Bosphorus aswell as increasing pollution of the water ways. Also the canal may be smaller in diameter but a large danger of navigating the Bosphorus comes from the rock formations underwater and the difference in water conditions between the Black Sea and Mediterranean that causes turbulence of the water causing ships to steer off course
... you should do a video about Øresund/Storebælt in Denmark. Many similarities...
Where the Turkish currency is coming under more and more pressure because of Erdoan's financial policy. Then Erdoan will probably have to print money to pay for the Istanbul Canal, putting even more pressure on the currency.
The old agreement put a buffer between the parties to the dispute.
Good video
Let’s see how it works
Why would companies using ships be bothered by time, time sensitive cargo can just fly in.
Flying can only move a fraction of what a ship can.
@@bazzfromthebackground3696 Give me one example of a bulky cargo that's too much for a plane to carry, that is also time sensitive.
@@teinmeizeshi5209 flying in can cost 10x more lol, it doesn't matter what cargo it is, the cost is the transportation, the cargo almost has no impact or value to the shipping companies, only whether the shipment needs a specialised container or a normal container
@@haruyanto8085 And your point? Why would ships pay instead of a free passage?
@@teinmeizeshi5209 You are probably right in terms of them just taking the free passage, but the question is if they are given a choice between the two.
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One point to think about is who will build this canal.
Its not as if there is a long history of corruption in the turkish building history
Mostly Chinese probably, but Turkey has been building a lot of infrastructure, they recently completed the new Canakale 1988 bridge or something like that
It will be immensely beneficial for Turkey to build Istanbul Kanal.
Interesting video. Interesting for me that Turkey does not have more rights overthis narrow strait.
Question: Is the new canal to be wide enough for two-way traffic?
But spending 15b seems a lot to regain a little control. Seems like Turkey could flex its muscles in other ways.
It is physically well placed to charge tolls, I would have thought.
There seem to be more to understand here....
It is really hard to cancel the treaty just like that lol
there is actually a toll on straits but its too low its not revized for inflation so ships pay 14-50 times less than what should they pay thats the problem
Why it’s free of cost I have no idea turkey is loosing billions
the montreax convention would fall if turkey signed the mare convention which would give it control of the straits as territorial waters. but turkey will not do so because that would mean recognizing that greece's EEZ occupies practically all that area of the mediterranean. and it is predicted that there will be a great wealth of natural gas there.
*1:47 and Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Czechia.
The ship that got stuck in the Suez canal is a good example of why the Istanbul canal is needed. Turkey should not have to put up a high risk of pollution in the middle of its largest city just so some poorly maintained ship can cruise through and pay nothing. I very much hope Turkey boots most commercial traffic out of the city. The military aspects of the convention appear to work well. We can hardly complain about Turkey imposing major restrictions on civil navigation through the canal.
What happened in Suez demonstrates that a narrow canal is a bad idea. The Bosporos is wide, deep and easily navigated. Large ships can easily pass each other mid channel.
@@simon7790 apparently 80 changes of direction required to navigate through Istanbul compared to about 5 for new canal. Turkey can't refuse highly dangerous cargoes passing though the city without starting a war at present. Now it will have a mechanism for determining who wants to wage war with them in advance.
@@peteregan3862 That's highly inaccurate, there are nowhere near that number of turns required. Perhaps a dozen at most. And the turns are generally 30 or 40 degree turns with plenty of space to make them in a speed controlled wide channel. Look on Navionics for the charts. Anytime I've done it it's been easy, even in fog. There's a wide, well buoyed channel with clear aids to navigation. At it's narrowest point it's twice as wide as the proposed canal, and at it's widest point it's several miles wide. Quite unlike a canal. Hence why there are very few incidents for the density of traffic.
Regarding your second point, that makes even less sense. Firstly, no-one, especially Turkey, wants to start as war over navigational access in the middle of its largest city. It's a demilitarized zone anyway. Secondly, filling in a couple of forms to request passage through a canal is not the typical way of signalling that you do, or do not, or whatever you're imaging is the case, wish to start a war. A canal has no bearing on defence issues whatsoever. Russia is a member of the UNSC and has a veto, renegotiation is not an option. Turkey unilaterally closing the bosphorus would be both highly risky and impractical, and completely disproportionate to any advantage gained (which is none at all).
@@simon7790 I still stand by what I wrote above. Turkey obviously wants to change the situation. Turkey is in NATO. Russia won't risk a nuclear holocaust over Turkey booting commercial traffic to the canal.
How about government stabilizing foreign exchange & interest rates and inflation first?
UMMM....... if the Istanbul canal is built, US Navy can pass thru without any rules or treaty being broken
wrong
They can already kinda do that, that's what the Montreux convention is for
@@haruyanto8085 You dont understand because this video is faulty. And its geographicly impossible.
Wrong
The canal won't be profitable, the cost of maintenance will be higher than what ever the canal is gonna make. Especially when there is a perfectly fine route that is free.
Free but timely, they will increase inspection times etc, it will profit because it's in the best interest of the EU nations and shipping companies, they save money on time and there are multiple routes which means nothing like what happend in the Suez canal can happen here, plus it's not just a Canal, they're gonna build shit on it that'll increase tourism or investment, also the land used to make the canal will be used to create a man made island off the cost of the Aegean sea
@@haruyanto8085 That's very positive, but how much money can you save with that time when you have to pay the fee.
@@haruyanto8085 Also, with the Turkish government being racist against minorities, do you really think they can attract enough tourists with that reputation?
You missed the part about Turkey's intention to allow more US warships into the Black Sea by circumventing Montreux.
It's basically like TH-cam Premium
2:04 normal tons or imperial?
If it's about trade, why do they not just widen the bosphorus?
It is impossible
1. Environmental damage
2. Historic waterside homes and infrastructure with bridges
They dont have control of that water way because of that convention
Istanbul Canal is not eligible for transition according to calculations and transport vessels cannot easily pass through compered to natural straits. Therefore it is clearly understood that the project has never aimed to alleviate the traffic, but to provide the partisans great deal of money through purchasing of valuable estate near the canal.
I believe it is about money. Maybe it's more cost effective to renegotiate the old treaty rather than building a new canal. It is turkey's right to charge fee for ships passing through its territory. The treaty was shoved down its throat when she was weak post World War, not anymore.
U guys have mentioned about the numbers of ship that passes through the Bosphorus a year but, as the numbers of the ships decline, the capacity of ships increase. The higher the cargo, lead us the higher risk for Boshphorus. On the other hand, ı do not support this idea while the economy is going downward.
Pins really can’t be high quality
Maybe if its possible its better to make the bosporus deeper or wider
I see the TLDR folks also read the economist
According to some honest geopolitical experts the canal is very essential for Turkey for various reasons . The government of Turkey is committed to develop and diversify the country's maritime waters . The polls you have mentioned in this video even were against to build a simple way or a bridge or a water body or even to plant trees along the road so I disregard those polls as they intend to be biased and politically motivated and anti Turkey .
I agree with you! Remember how they attacked the new Airport? It's same! Envy jealousy
What about Bosnian canal?
I love love love tldr!!!
The environmental implications are going to be disastrous to both the Aegean's and Black Sea's marine life.
6:23 i dont remember u making editing mistakes so often. Feels like every 2nd or 3rd video i watch has them
The Convention is a perfectly balanced agreement that has protected Turkey for over 8 decades. It must not be dismissed.
You need to have more detailed information about Montreux Convention. It is covering not only the the two straits but also the sea route thru Marmara sea.
Without having information in dept it is futile to make assumptions on the crucial Montreux Convention. The canal will not change the status of the sea route in Marmara sea mentioned in Montreux Convention even many canals constructed on both sides of the two straights. You can not change the statue just by building canals. This is explicitly mentioned in the convention. Put aside neither Turkey or Russia would wish to loose the control recognized and defined by Montreux Convention. It is one of the pillars of peace of the region. USA and other outside military powers is not favor of the convention in order to militarize Black Sea whereas there is no restrictions for the civil transportation.
The canal project has not only economic prospects buyback the safety of the Bosphorus straight is the most important part of it.
The increasing sea traffic is already causing long queues and days long delays which causes high transportation costs and endangering the safe passage of the ships.
So this project would provide safety for 18 million populated city and enhance safer and faster transportation.
Logistic centers ports along with techno parks finance centers marinas hotels and modern infrastructure will boost the economy trade and tourism.
So this USD 15 billion canal project will attract more than USD 50-100bn investment. If you compare it with the new Istanbul airport one of the major airports this may exceed the benefits of being just a sea route. It will be a part of the sea air and rail connection and logistic facilities on the cross routes of north to south east to west of the continents.
Ecological effects should be analyzed in-depth though. As of today a lot of contradicting assumptions were presented however the results are to be seen. The flow of currents between the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea are going to increase. This may even help the circulation in Marmara sea which is a inner sea.
However this change in ecology this is nothing to compare to Panama or Suez Canal’s exchange of habitats where there was no connection between the oceans earlier. Bosphorus strait already connects the habitats. So the new canal will not be a new connection but a parallel one.
When Analyzing effects of or on earth quakes the scientific data shows that the depth of the canal is minor to create any effects.
So ecological and safety concerns are being the most crucial as long as those will not have such adverse effects but in some aspects brings positive enhancements the economic prospects are great.
So Turkey a long with the other mega projects realized in the past decades is capable and in need of such strategic projects that will enhance the economic and international relations between east to west and north to south trade routes. Such mega projects is a necessity of its geopolitically existence.
I think Turkey might just end up wasting 40 billion on nothing, no country will ever want to pay for something they can still do for free.
And if Turkey starts making it to hard to use the bosferous strait, then the Danube River-Aegean Sea Canal project will start to look less crazy and and more appealing for the Balkans and the EU...
we already wasted $40 billion on refugees in Turkey, Erdogan need to go...
They do surveys to the shipping companies prior to deciding, also these ships are mostly privately owned by shipping companies not countries, Danube and other project is insanely difficult cause it requires multiple nations to cooperate and agree on the construction, the only change and effect of the new Istanbul Canal is that there's another canal that isn't free that shipping companies can use.
This project is still in the interest of the EU nations, two canals means that something like what happened on the Suez will never happen here.
@@milliyetci5672 Turkey gets paid by the EU for the taking in refugees tho, again the refugees are only in certain parts of Turkey not the whole
@@haruyanto8085 they get paid 750 million a year by the EU while spending 40 billion for it lol.
@@haruyanto8085 Nice joke... EU said they will only gave 740 million Euros per year... from 2015-2020, EU only gave 3 billion Euro.... Turkey spend $40 billion on Syrian refugee & additional $10 billion for Afghan & African migrant.... EU turning to a failed organization, also a big blow after UK left....
Stupid Erdogan believed in EU's fake promise & wasted our $40 billion..
refugees are only in certain parts of Turkey??? if you go to istanbul and talk to 10 people, 2 of them are Syrian...
It's definitely a ploy to circumvent the Montreux convention, bun to what end, it's difficult to say.
Money
Any statesman would have done the same.. This is praiseworthy deed
If it's about financial reasons, Greece would've been better deserving of the cash it rakes in, had Eastern Thrace returned to Greece. A reliable NATO ally.
Amazing idea but.. How will 20M Turks in Eastern Thrace be annihilated? It's still a greater population than the entirety of Greece. Will Greece take that risk of being assimilated into Turkish culture at the expense of realizing Megali Idea?
@@kaanaslan3003 most of them have greec blood anyway like other coastal turkish cities
@@randomriku6774 Thanks for educating me on my heritage. Appreciated.
@@kaanaslan3003 Why ask me? You guys are the masters at it. Like how you displaced the Greeks from Northern Cyprus, Anatolia, and Eastern Thrace in recent memory.
As well as annihilating the Armenians in 1894, 1895, 1909, 1915, 1920; Greeks in 1453, 1821, 1913, (discounting the aforementioned recent memory); the Kurds in 1925, 1930, 1937, 1938, 1943, and probably a lot more; the Jews in your country's pogroms of 1934; twice against Bulgarians in 1913; Assyrians in 1840, 1895, 1914... Let's not forget the pogroms of 1955.
Not to mention the Devsirme, which would've been a human rights violation today. And the fact that y'all came into the Balkans and messed it up for generations to come. I don't hate the Turkish people, y'all are beautiful people, but I wish y'all at least acknowledge what y'all did.
Furthermore, the original comment I made was a what-if scenario had it been awarded to Greece, considering they're broke.
If you're offended, I'm very sorry, but it's just what it is.
@@kaanaslan3003 that’s why he said “had Eastern Thrace returned (remained) to Greece (after ww1)”. Learn to read, he did not mention anything about a modern change of borders lol.
Although number of ships dropped, carried goods via Strait increased in terms of tonnes. That means hundreds of bigger ships pass through historical and 16 million populated city. We saw Beirut. Main concern of Turks who dont want this project is economy. If goverment solve that, polls would be much diffirent.
In my opinion it's preposterous that Turkey doesn't currently get any money from the traffic through the canal. I can see why they want to build a new canal since getting all the original signers of the convention to sign a new deal, in which Turkey would start monetizing on its canal, seems impossible.
Its not a canal but it may act like one
It should work out in theory, only time will tell tho
I mean you can pay turkey to use the canal and also preserve the military rules
Some pins are more expensive than others 😏 makes no sense.
A ship's tonnage is a measurement of her internal volumes, not her weight, the displacement is what measures the weight
It's thus misleading to illustrate tonnage with weights
Fun fact: more ships pass the Bosphorous yearly then Suez and Panama canal combined.
Panama 14K and Suez 18,5K roughly meanwhile Bosphorous 48K ships Yearly
I dont think its an investment that will safe turkish economy and rising inflation, nonetheless its an intresting project which will have a global impact.
Turkey is Blessed with its Geographic position, it only needs to invest more in Innovation and supporting the younger generation, which is (me included) disstatisfed with the Political and Economical course we are heading.
Im wondering what happens if turkey just decides to shut the bisforoua strait
Just let the turkey charge for commercial vassels. This would solve the problem
Whatever the point of this canal is, it looks like the costs might outweigh the benefits.
How can Turkey inhibit passage of ships through its cannel? It is not legal in any way and it would cause international backlash. It is breaking international agreement and begging for spare change.
Why so canal about it?
While the amount of ships going through the straits of Istanbul decreased over time, the overal capacity of these ships increased. The weight of cargoes increased significantly as well. This makes it harder and takes much more time for them to navigate through the straits either. That's why there are lots of ships waiting at the entrence of the straits. It's an interesting subject. The world should innovate and develop new projects. Decreasing the waiting times is important. I'm sure there are companies willing to pay for crossing the straits quicker than to rather wait. The cost of waiting is most of the time higher and effects the global economy overall. The canal will increase capacity and will boost global economy. There's also the fact that transportation over sea/water is essential to decrease stress with trucks on roads and nation borders. Not only do Black Sea nations use the straits, also nations where the Danube (Donau) River passes, which is the 2nd longest river in Europe, use the strait. This would also relax the extremely busy ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, but could also decrease their profits at the same time.
Besides, we've the Panama, Suez and Kiel canal. Having an Istanbul Canal would certainly benefit a lot. For instance, the Kiel was not even necessary and was build just to circumvent Denmark.. Kanal Istanbul is not a bad idea in my opinion.
It will destroy the sea life with the redirected current and, send Istanbul into an infrastructure crisis (way farther deep than the current situation caused by unplanned expansion) and cut down a significant portion of the Northern forests. Also the only reason he wants to build this is because his family and allies own a good chunk of the land near the proposed route.