Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
  • Jeffrey Rosenthal, a professor of statistics at the University of Toronto, answers the internet's burning questions about statistics. What are the most common statistical errors? Why do polls get it so wrong? What's the worst casino game in terms of odds? How does probability work in roulette? Jeffrey answers all these questions and much more!
    Jeffrey Rosenthal is the author of the book "Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities" (probability.ca/sbl/)
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    Statistician Answers Stats Questions From Twitter | Tech Support | WIRED
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  • @faded3870
    @faded3870 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8725

    i love watching people talk about something that they’re passionate about

    • @hopefullyhigh
      @hopefullyhigh 2 ปีที่แล้ว +115

      for real, those are the best kind of teachers, especially math teachers

    • @cxffaye
      @cxffaye 2 ปีที่แล้ว +41

      @@hopefullyhigh yes definitely. My maths teacher is so passionate about what he teaches and you can literally see it in his eyes lol. He’s my favourite teacher as well

    • @loveyou5507
      @loveyou5507 2 ปีที่แล้ว +28

      EXACTLY bro ppl don’t get it 😭😭 it’s nice seeing how into they are about a topic idk why it makes me happy knowing that they are talking about what they love

    • @cxffaye
      @cxffaye 2 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      @@loveyou5507 ikr. These days too many people are into professions that they don’t really enjoy so it’s really nice to see someone whose actually interested in what they are doing

    • @ianoblemusic
      @ianoblemusic 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Agreed

  • @subhrajitsamanta1992
    @subhrajitsamanta1992 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3171

    As a PhD in a field close to statistics, I do appreciate how this man is able to explain some of the more nuanced concepts with such clarity and effectiveness. Great episode!

    • @InsaneGunman
      @InsaneGunman 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      What's your field? I'm curious

    • @kakabudi
      @kakabudi 2 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      Are you in the field of data science?

    • @darthfrancium1166
      @darthfrancium1166 2 ปีที่แล้ว +22

      Implying someone without a PHD can't appreciate it? You donkey

    • @subhrajitsamanta1992
      @subhrajitsamanta1992 2 ปีที่แล้ว +50

      @@InsaneGunman Time series modeling/forecasting was my main focus area during my PhD.

    • @subhrajitsamanta1992
      @subhrajitsamanta1992 2 ปีที่แล้ว +37

      @@kakabudi you guessed that right 😁 I'm working with a consultancy as a senior data scientist (with a focus on fundamental ML research).

  • @ExperimentIV
    @ExperimentIV ปีที่แล้ว +858

    i took this guy’s course! i was an english major in university and took his stats course as my math credit and he made me enjoy math for the first time in my life.

    • @Gallarday
      @Gallarday ปีที่แล้ว +93

      Ha! What are the odds?

    • @tayk-47usa41
      @tayk-47usa41 ปีที่แล้ว +137

      @@Gallarday 50/50

    • @kemonopriestess
      @kemonopriestess 8 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      gosh.. you're fortunate!

    • @imogensharma
      @imogensharma 9 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Ahh jealous, he must have been great! Such a warm demeanor and contagious passion.

  • @JG-ce3pu
    @JG-ce3pu 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2510

    Yeah, we are gonna need a 3 hour version of this. Thank you. Extremely interesting subject and great explanations!

    • @archaeologistify
      @archaeologistify ปีที่แล้ว +31

      MIT has free lectures online on a bunch of subjects, including statistics. Theres your 3h version.

    • @Ackow
      @Ackow ปีที่แล้ว +8

      @@archaeologistify link please

    • @mohamedaminedallali6924
      @mohamedaminedallali6924 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      how likely is it for a Lannister to pay his debts?

    • @KA-gy3lz
      @KA-gy3lz ปีที่แล้ว +3

      You know you could just take a statistics class right?

    • @JJ-iu5hl
      @JJ-iu5hl ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Soooo audit a free university stats class

  • @austineittreim5085
    @austineittreim5085 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1462

    I could listen to this guy talk all day

    • @BillStrathearn
      @BillStrathearn 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      Harvard Woody Harrelson really does have the best way of explaining statistics

    • @Mighty_Dork
      @Mighty_Dork 2 ปีที่แล้ว +18

      Sounds like University of Toronto is the place for you

    • @mcschneeman1
      @mcschneeman1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      I could talk about how that guy could listen to that guy talk all day all day

    • @cristianpuerto5549
      @cristianpuerto5549 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      right???

    • @mailesmith168
      @mailesmith168 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      He keeps it moving

  • @luvisacigarette8
    @luvisacigarette8 2 ปีที่แล้ว +793

    Rosenthal should be brought back not only because he's engaging and delightful but because statistics is one of the most misunderstood (or neglected) fields

    • @mehwhyausername1
      @mehwhyausername1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +21

      *the* most neglected and important coursework in high schools. it is an elective at some schools; however, I've never heard of a public district requiring students to take it, even though something so niche like geometry is taught for an entire year because of what, Euclid's _Elements_ is influential?

    • @jaytxa2791
      @jaytxa2791 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@mehwhyausername1 my high school stats was a mandatory class and I thought it was pretty interesting stuff

    • @nmarbletoe8210
      @nmarbletoe8210 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      @@mehwhyausername1 I love stats, but didn't get any until grad school. Hard to believe we didnt' get it in undergrad biology

    • @n484l3iehugtil
      @n484l3iehugtil ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@mehwhyausername1 tbh I'm guessing statistics is taught less in high school than geometry not because of any point about practicality, but because it it's messy - it's less to do with solving some puzzle that has a precise solution, and much more about appreciating what various values, indicators and formulas mean in terms of interpreting the data.
      I can feel the confusion and wild questions among students (especially about whether something is the best approach to interpret the data, whether it really represents what it claims to represent, and whether the conclusion is properly justified - way more qualitative in nature), and I remember how even teachers get it wrong, especially interpreting the terminology into context.
      Then again, it has to be done some time, and high school is probably the best place to learn it cos the students have time and are also of a decent caliber.

    • @FrenkieWest32
      @FrenkieWest32 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@mehwhyausername1 in what high school does one not get any statistics? I find this hard to believe. Basic math questions in lower grades are quite often some simple form of statistics.

  • @SchgurmTewehr
    @SchgurmTewehr ปีที่แล้ว +256

    I know people who, with his knowledge, would answer irritated and condescendingly to all these questions. But Jeffrey? No. He happily shares his knowledge, always keeping a smile, explaining very well, even thought it is obvious that he‘s a little introverted and shy. What a nice guy, I would love to have him as a teacher.

    • @deus_ex_machina_
      @deus_ex_machina_ 11 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      I agree with your assessment, but the presenters know that their behaviour is a lot more likely to be seen by millions of strangers rather than just a class full of students whose grades he has control over.

    • @alexanderhe646
      @alexanderhe646 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      @@deus_ex_machina_ had him as a prof this year, absolutely amazing lecturer with very fair exams

    • @rukus9585
      @rukus9585 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

      your bud, jeffrey, lmao.

    • @SchgurmTewehr
      @SchgurmTewehr 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@rukus9585 no he’s not.

    • @rukus9585
      @rukus9585 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@SchgurmTewehr oh... my fault. I just figured, first name basis and all...

  • @RelaxxedRage
    @RelaxxedRage ปีที่แล้ว +141

    i trust this guy because of his passion and the fact he looks exactly what I'd expect a statistician to look like

  • @derekwayne843
    @derekwayne843 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1432

    This was one of my favorite professors at university of toronto. I took stochastic processes with him. I thought I recognized him!

    • @CatherineBoyd
      @CatherineBoyd 2 ปีที่แล้ว +421

      Ooh, what are the odds?

    • @benpietrzykowski9216
      @benpietrzykowski9216 2 ปีที่แล้ว +130

      @@CatherineBoyd well played Catherine

    • @pasandesilva2295
      @pasandesilva2295 2 ปีที่แล้ว +21

      How fun was Stochastic processes, Random Walks, Ito calculus... right... RIGHT...!

    • @derekwayne843
      @derekwayne843 2 ปีที่แล้ว +49

      @@pasandesilva2295 RIGHT! He actually used that frog to demonstrate random walks on lillypads lol

    • @jeanc6306
      @jeanc6306 2 ปีที่แล้ว +18

      Omg I remember his frog too

  • @jimysuave
    @jimysuave 2 ปีที่แล้ว +350

    I respect that the hardest part of shooting an episode like this is casting somebody… And once again Wired knocks it out of the park. Such a charming gentleman.

    • @krisherbst6162
      @krisherbst6162 10 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I like that wired gets some very regular looking people.
      Something about media always having crazy attractive people makes me not trust them at all.

  • @RebeccaEvans
    @RebeccaEvans ปีที่แล้ว +241

    I love that multiple times throughout the video he does not just answer questions but actively demonstrates the kind of dualistic/perspective change undertaking for each problem that is so valuable in stats and in thought in general.

    • @Moose92411
      @Moose92411 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Agreed. He makes the information he’s giving us highly authentic and actionable

  • @Woupsme
    @Woupsme ปีที่แล้ว +84

    This was actually really exciting. I love how you can just cook down every "what are the odds" to something factual.

  • @cmdtrigun
    @cmdtrigun 2 ปีที่แล้ว +858

    The question about "when do I need statistics in real life?" hurts me. Since the age of news misinformation, there could not be a more valuable field to understand. I also liked that he touched on the 2016 election, because that was a great example of people stuck in their bubbles convincing themselves that the election would pan out one way, mistaking their opinion for a statistical reflection of the whole nation.

    • @mehwhyausername1
      @mehwhyausername1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      I agree; the need for instruction and erudition in probability theory, statistics, and logic is even more clarified and poignant in the last number of years. specifically, there is a pathetic lack of epistemological thought in America, which is ruining our culture and economic competitiveness on the global stage; it's also hampering innovation efforts and entrepreneurial pursuits in technology and business, and leading to lossy events, such as people easily scamming others, or people "investing" in extremely risky assets without knowing the likelihood of success.

    • @mrbouncelol
      @mrbouncelol 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      It's an excellent example because it is topical but ultimately apolitical: whether or not you were happy about the result, the point is that a good number of smart people were wrong, and that is always a learning moment

    • @theultimatereductionist7592
      @theultimatereductionist7592 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Nothing special about the 2016 US election. ALL elections in ALL countries in ALL years have people STUPIDLY ARROGANTLY making false predictions.

    • @montyollie
      @montyollie 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

      @@mehwhyausername1 the staggering number of people who denied the pandemic or the R values or the mask usage or the contact tracing was ... unreal to me. But I've always loved stats, and I don't get people who ignore them.

    • @alfgwahigain5544
      @alfgwahigain5544 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@theultimatereductionist7592 Kind of like how the media, for months, have been handing the upcoming midterms to the right. It's repeated every day that they're going to win. I find it obnoxious.

  • @herrschniedler4207
    @herrschniedler4207 2 ปีที่แล้ว +270

    you can tell this man loves his job and thats great

    • @mwhawley
      @mwhawley 2 ปีที่แล้ว +14

      I will watch ANYONE talk about what they’re passionate about

    • @ecvjtv2778
      @ecvjtv2778 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@mwhawley Aye, so would I. It's quite a joy to behold :)

  • @alexc4012
    @alexc4012 ปีที่แล้ว +37

    I genuinely think the world would be a better place if more people just watched this video! Jeffrey is a great speaker. Statistics is something that seems to be so lost in the general population (and it makes sense why - it's a complex subject!) and I think it's one of the reasons that science / health, etc. literacy is so lacking right now.

  • @ksz7241
    @ksz7241 ปีที่แล้ว +110

    Thank you for finaly explaining p-value in human words - I 'm a student and I had 2 semesters with this thing, and I know what it's for but just now I truely feel like I understand it

    • @FedericoMattiello
      @FedericoMattiello ปีที่แล้ว +6

      Unfortunately that was wrong. The definition is a mess and has been, and still is, a controversial topic for almost all statisticians

    • @rudymeow
      @rudymeow ปีที่แล้ว +19

      ​@@FedericoMattiello The explanation of the tool was correct, the debate is more about if p-value is a good tool, or how should we use this tool.
      Also plenty of people misuse this tool by mistake or purposely.

    • @TAP7a
      @TAP7a ปีที่แล้ว +8

      @@FedericoMattiello I mean, any definition for statistical significance other than "a measurement where the probability of observing a value of the chosen test statistic equal to or more extreme than the measured test statistic assuming the null hypothesis is less than or equal to the a priori assigned choice of α" is necessarily going to omit some detail, but the above is fairly settled.
      As the other commenter said, the controversy is if whether they're still useful. I'm of the opinion that the effect size should take priority in publications, especially to the general public, with the p-value reported alongside.
      Sometimes only presenting "p

  • @bertfalasco1436
    @bertfalasco1436 2 ปีที่แล้ว +350

    This was thoroughly delightful. Please have this gentleman back. I liked him as the guy on the couch, too, in Half Baked.

    • @martintodd3009
      @martintodd3009 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      He was pretty good in Frasier too 👏

    • @britishbeef2116
      @britishbeef2116 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yep, straight up numbers and facts, I liked this dude too

    • @WickedIndigo
      @WickedIndigo 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Well played friend🤣🤣🤣

    • @robspiess
      @robspiess 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      This professor is cool, but there is no way he is as cool as Steven Wright (the guy on the couch). One of my favorite Steven Wright jokes:
      When I was little my grandfather asked me how old I was. I said, "Five." He said, "When I was your age, I was six."
      Bonus Joke: "I hate it when my foot falls asleep during the day because that means it's going to be up all night."

    • @bertfalasco1436
      @bertfalasco1436 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@robspiess he is a hilarious man, for sure 🤙🏼

  • @GlennC789
    @GlennC789 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1386

    This was great. People have so many serious misconceptions about statistics, and often their misconceptions lead them to conspiracy theories and other dangerous beliefs because they see what seem to be impossible coincidences that are in reality, just random patterns being detected among the noise of vast numbers of independent events that naturally occur. Some of this was demonstrated by the questions asked here. Jeffrey did a quite excellent job of explaining, but people really need to be educated better about these things.

    • @Theoryofcatsndogs
      @Theoryofcatsndogs 2 ปีที่แล้ว +24

      you forgot to mention religion.

    • @mehg8407
      @mehg8407 2 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      I think it has more to do as painting people as "establishment". So in this case a right winger might say that this guy is just pushing a narrative that crime is down historically (which it is). So instead of attacking this guy in particular or even the math, you go all out and say "they are pushing a narrative down your throat". So when say a virus has a random mutation and become more infectious, it then becomes easy to say things like "the Chinese created the virus" or "the virus happened in the election year on purpose". It all comes down to "don't trust them, trust us to tell you what reality is".

    • @mehwhyausername1
      @mehwhyausername1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      name a single school district that _requires_ students to take probability theory or statistics. that's right - there isn't one. they also aren't required to learn propositional logic, even in college, or any type of discrete mathematics, unless they're specifically a technical or mathematics major. our education systems are pathetic and cater to the lowest common denominator.

    • @mehg8407
      @mehg8407 2 ปีที่แล้ว +35

      @@mehwhyausername1 You don't need a full fledged probability course to know things like "vaccines are not injecting you with chips", "masking helps reduce spread", "Democrats are not eating babies". As someone with a math degree I can tell you, you don't need to be technically proficient to use common sense. Not everybody needs to take a full stats course (though that would be awesome). It's just not a viable strategy. I wish it were not true, but not everybody has the capacity to take those kind of courses. I'm not saying that people are too dumb, I'm saying that we need to focus more heavily on the critical thinking part of the picture. I think a good course would be one were kids are guided on how to spot fake news and how to identify good sources. For example, I'm not a doctor so I will defer to the consensus of medical experts about medicine. It would be great if everybody was good at stats, but the best we could do is at least make people better at navigating a world with constant info being tossed around.

    • @stich21
      @stich21 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@mehg8407 Lol sheep BAaaaa

  • @bradykruse1693
    @bradykruse1693 2 ปีที่แล้ว +95

    I took a probability class my senior year of college. Absolutely phenomenal insight into how the world operates

  • @emwecker
    @emwecker ปีที่แล้ว +113

    I enjoy this man, you can see how jacked he is about stats.

  • @andrewfernandes7383
    @andrewfernandes7383 2 ปีที่แล้ว +385

    I am currently taking one of his courses. Fantastic professor and all around great guy. He's really passionate about the subject so he's a pleasure to talk to when it comes to the subject.

    • @bbens999
      @bbens999 ปีที่แล้ว

      Was this online or in-person in Toronto?

    • @rrogers2370
      @rrogers2370 ปีที่แล้ว

      Did you pass?

    • @daClownie1
      @daClownie1 ปีที่แล้ว

      Lol I’m taking his midterm at 3 today

  • @svenlinden9312
    @svenlinden9312 2 ปีที่แล้ว +108

    This professors way of describing things so explicitly and without the confusing, using examples in a clear manner. Just awesome 🤩

  • @marcelohfms
    @marcelohfms ปีที่แล้ว +25

    I like the plane crash example and I think it relates to cassino and roulettes. A lot of people think that because the ball hit let’s say red 10 times in a row, the probability of it being on red again is extremely small and well, it isn’t. It’s true that the probability of hitting red 11 times in a row is really small. But as soon as it has already happened 10 times, the probability of the next one being red is roughly 50%.

    • @NealBurkard-ut1oo
      @NealBurkard-ut1oo 9 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Yeah, I believe that's called a Markov chain. Each roulette spin is independent of the previous spin but we can still use the chain to predict the odds the next 10 spins are red. I've taken a decent amount of Stat classes in college and I will probably will never play a casino house game, the payout are always lower than the odds of winning. I do play a lot of poker but that's not a house game.

  • @dark_sunset
    @dark_sunset ปีที่แล้ว +128

    This video is awesome. Thanks Jeff, thanks Wired!

  • @Decimator69420
    @Decimator69420 2 ปีที่แล้ว +134

    Man, WIRED really knows how to find paragons in their respective fields

    • @BBB024
      @BBB024 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      THIS!! all of their experts besides just being incredibly knowledgeable talk about their respective fields with so much clarity and passion. I could seriously listen to all of them if they had their own podcasts haha

  • @cruisinguy6024
    @cruisinguy6024 2 ปีที่แล้ว +271

    I did not think I’d enjoy this episode but turns out he was fascinating! Would love to see more of this guy!

    • @mehwhyausername1
      @mehwhyausername1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      I'm hoping more people will realize how important, useful, informative, and interesting probability and statistics theory is, and I think that passionate professors like him act as good representatives for this kind of critical thought.

    • @Killer-Frost18x
      @Killer-Frost18x 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Why you think you wouldn’t enjoy it? That’s sad

    • @cruisinguy6024
      @cruisinguy6024 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@Killer-Frost18x While I've always been "good" at math I have never enjoyed it. For this reason I avoided taking statistics in high school and college so I figured this video would not be enjoyable but he did such a wonderful job explaining everything.

  • @Hahahahaaahaahaa
    @Hahahahaaahaahaa 2 ปีที่แล้ว +41

    I am SO glad he brought up what he refers to as the "out of how many" issue. It is, likely one of the most compelling reasons for false convictions in the US. It happens ALL the time in all kinds of courts. The Disney example is so useful too. Linked to confirmation bias, when we see something we think is rare, we forget how many chances we had to see it, and how many other 'things' we would have felt that special about that we didn't see. Great great video.

    • @erenjaegerbomb8653
      @erenjaegerbomb8653 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I broadly agree, thought the Disney example was certainly revealing. Though on reflection, 1 in 200 is still a chance low enough to be amazed by.

    • @yesdcotchin
      @yesdcotchin 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I wondered if that 1/200 also factored in all the chances he'd had to be surprised by seeing someone he knew at an event since the last time that happened

    • @jonatanrullman
      @jonatanrullman หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not sure it was the best example though. The case in question is notable for the statistical error and deservedly considered a miscarriage of justice. But the odds of it happening by chance twice in the same family is still staggering. In the US there is, with recent statistics, only about 3000 SIDS-like deaths per year (and not all of them actual SIDS) out of about 3,5 million births. I'll let someone else calculate the odds of that happening twice in one family without an underlying cause (since the point here was the pure statistical pronsbility) but lets just say it's not an everyday occurance.
      So while a good example of bad statistics and flawed reasoning, it is hardly a good example of the out of how many problem and it is certainly a stretch to say it is likely to occur.
      The Disney example though, I thought, was excellent for that point.

    • @nekrataali
      @nekrataali หลายเดือนก่อน

      People hear "Only 1 in 283 million billion googleplex people will have this happen to them" and forget that...yeah, there's that one guy who had the thing happen to them. There has to be someone it happened to, otherwise it wouldn't be 1 in 500 trillion or whatever. It'd be a 0% chance of happening.

  • @RishabhSharma10225
    @RishabhSharma10225 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    He talked about some critical things that people very frequently get wrong. I was very happy to see that. Thanks for this video.

  • @chrisfitch972
    @chrisfitch972 2 ปีที่แล้ว +143

    I love it when an expert explains concepts in a simple and easy to understand way! (Both because it helps me keep up lol and because it’s such an appealing display of empathy - he could dazzle us with complicated explanations but he’d much rather give us the gift of understanding something new!)

    • @DarthScosha
      @DarthScosha ปีที่แล้ว +6

      That's what makes a good teacher/educator. You can get a PhD and be very knowledgeable in a field, but that doesn't mean you'll be any good at explaining it to people who are not already experts. Gaining the ability to explain complex subjects to people with no prior knowledge is a skill that takes a long time to acquire.

    • @Reir0o
      @Reir0o ปีที่แล้ว

      That's basically the difference between a teacher and a smartass

  • @taahaahussain1477
    @taahaahussain1477 2 ปีที่แล้ว +51

    Oh wasn't expecting this. I have always wanted to know what they do

  • @Nekology87
    @Nekology87 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    That was such good vibes. Thank you Jeffrey! total delight to watch. Hooray for gaining new perspectives!

  • @blackeye7272
    @blackeye7272 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Most loved category that ever saw in this channel . Loved it so much ! Very very useful things he said ,and analyzed. Please bring him back one more time .

  • @Amanda-if7ey
    @Amanda-if7ey 2 ปีที่แล้ว +62

    I really enjoyed how clearly he explained something that can be so difficult to understand

  • @assepa
    @assepa 2 ปีที่แล้ว +196

    Another problem with election polls is that the polls influence the result. Some people will see the poll results and then decide to change their vote to something else, because they don't like the outcome they saw in the polls.

    • @imightbebiased9311
      @imightbebiased9311 2 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      Additionally, you're relying on the honesty of the people in those polls. You could very easily have a concerted group of liars ruin your poll. Remember, you're only taking a 2000 person sample, 15 people saying they're going to do Thing A when they intend to do Thing B is probably enough to screw up your results.

    • @monicaperez2843
      @monicaperez2843 2 ปีที่แล้ว +22

      Sometimes a person will lie at a poll, especially an entrance/exit poll at a voting poll because they are accompanied by a spouse or friend, had they told them the truth, they would hear about it all day long, or even worse. That's why my parents didn't even tell each other whom they are voting for!

    • @randomuser5237
      @randomuser5237 2 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      If you're a good statistician then you can account for most of those factors including the possibility that people will not be honest and/or there will be bias. There are whole fields on sample collection and analysis of possibly biased results. There's a reason people like Nate Silver and many other good statistician get consistently good results.

    • @CleverAccountName303
      @CleverAccountName303 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      I don't think too many people are changing their votes, but you are correct that polling has an effect. More likely, it is people deciding to not bother to vote if they think their candidate is going to win anyway. So polls with wide spreads tend to get narrower and narrower the closer you get to the election.

    • @AJ23mady
      @AJ23mady 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      That makes no sense

  • @NickeNacho
    @NickeNacho ปีที่แล้ว +3

    RIP Jeffrey Rosenthal
    Struck by lightning only hours after this interview took place..

  • @whenurefree
    @whenurefree ปีที่แล้ว +4

    As a statistician, I really enjoyed the simplicity of his explanations. I would love to sit in one of his lectures!

  • @burgerslayerrr
    @burgerslayerrr 2 ปีที่แล้ว +36

    I love how genuinely passionate this guy is along with his eloquence to explain complicated equations in simple terms!

  • @Boringpenguin
    @Boringpenguin 2 ปีที่แล้ว +177

    3:18 Just to further illustrate the horrible impact of that single statistical error, Sally Clark, who was the mother involved with the case, died of alcohol poisoning just 4 years after being released. There is also a more in-depth video on Vsauce2 that talks about the same case and it's definitely worth watching.
    Link to the Vsauce2 video, Making A Math Murderer
    th-cam.com/video/mLEWj-61a4I/w-d-xo.html

    • @lonesome3958
      @lonesome3958 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Whats the title?

    • @Boringpenguin
      @Boringpenguin 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@lonesome3958 It's called "Making A Math Murderer", I've added the link

    • @lonesome3958
      @lonesome3958 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Boringpenguin tysm

    • @onkelpappkov2666
      @onkelpappkov2666 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      *Yo Sally.*
      What is it, God?
      *ur firstborn ded lol*
      Oh no, my baby!
      *Sally, Sally.*
      Yes, God?
      *ur other kid ded lol*
      Oh no, there is nothing worse than this.
      *omg Sally wrong*
      What could be worse, God?
      *the cops Sally u in jail now*
      Oh this is horrible.
      *git raped lol i made em think u a murder*
      But God, after all this trauma, will there be a lesson?
      *cancer lol*
      Oh no, woe is me.
      *commit suicide bish*
      Oh the agony. At least the torment is over.
      *Sally.*
      Yes, God?
      *hellfire lol*
      Oh no!
      *forever haha*
      But why, God?
      *bish u ate shellfish*

    • @aqilshamil9633
      @aqilshamil9633 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@onkelpappkov2666 cringe internet atheist lol

  • @Hondomoto_
    @Hondomoto_ 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    These are so interesting, I could seriously not care less about most of these topics but its something about seeing a normal person speak so expertly and explaining so plainly things I haven't really considered, its addicting to watch . I mean if they did one of these about like botanists I would watch still watch it.

  • @vaklinpetkov7496
    @vaklinpetkov7496 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    loved how passionate and articulate this guest was

  • @elnobbodor
    @elnobbodor 2 ปีที่แล้ว +353

    I love his use of the "out of how many" error. Really mind-blowing that the lady's own attorney couldn't come up with this defense for her.
    Does anyone know what that error is actually called? I'd love to teach it in my own class.

    • @gwydionml6479
      @gwydionml6479 2 ปีที่แล้ว +73

      Conditional probability error. Look up “Making a Math Murderer”. There should be a video of the specific case

    • @cragnog
      @cragnog 2 ปีที่แล้ว +24

      @@gwydionml6479 oo la, you on that V sauce

    • @iesika7387
      @iesika7387 ปีที่แล้ว +25

      This kind of probability error is really important in DNA cases as well as those are usually determined to one in a few tens of thousands of people at best. It would be a really wild coincidence to get fingered for a crime by some other means and have your DNA be that close - but if you were already nabbed because you were in the same minority in the same general area where you might be related to a lot of people nearby, or if you were grabbed out of a DNA database on a partial match with no other evidence against you, DNA is not necessarily the smoking gun most jurors are going to think it is if they don't understand both the science of DNA analysis and the statistics (which is why you need a better defense attorney than you're likely to get).

    • @c2thamax246
      @c2thamax246 ปีที่แล้ว +15

      Because the defense attorney had the same attitude every other non math major has towards math and just wanted a passing grade!
      Numberphile has great video on this phenomenon where they flip a coin until they get 10 heads in a row or something (which is unlikely to happen itself) but if you repeat the experiment 1000 times it becomes quite like to happen at least once.

    • @garrettkajmowicz
      @garrettkajmowicz ปีที่แล้ว +3

      It's referred to as The Prosecutor's Fallacy".

  • @xwwg1wgax277
    @xwwg1wgax277 2 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    Finally sat through a full episode. First time in months. Bring this man back.

  • @Najahfreeman
    @Najahfreeman 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Watching someone so genuine, passionate and smart talk about something is seriously what we need more everywhere. Internet tv, radio etc.

  • @TheRavenfish9
    @TheRavenfish9 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It is so exciting to me when someone really knowledgeable about a challenging topic makes it easier for the average person to understand. Just goes to show what a good teacher can do for learning. Great guest!

  • @puzzLEGO
    @puzzLEGO 2 ปีที่แล้ว +70

    I always thought statistician was a weird occupation but man, it's hard

    • @nathanwycoff4627
      @nathanwycoff4627 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      nah you were right we're pretty weird too

    • @stevekru6518
      @stevekru6518 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Surveys often show applied math occupations, like statistician, are the most satisfying, happiest careers.

  • @amar.mohamed
    @amar.mohamed 2 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    This video is so important. It explains your basic statistics that would explain a majority of the events that could occur in your lifetime.

  • @phillipchristoffersen749
    @phillipchristoffersen749 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    Took this guy's class at Toronto, one of the best in my undergrad. Really good lecturer

  • @jasonavina8135
    @jasonavina8135 ปีที่แล้ว +22

    we need a whole series on statistics like this, i'd like to see this professor and others brought in to do it, although Jeff doing it all would be great too

    • @anniekate76
      @anniekate76 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Hmmm, and maybe these professors could do this series in a big room, we could call it a “lecture hall”, and we could all gather there and take notes…

    • @jasonavina8135
      @jasonavina8135 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@anniekate76 actually given that ive been taken stats in a lecture hall and watched videos online i can say theres a huge role amazing series can play on youtube. i bet people would appreciate a series on stats like that. But maybe your totally uncalled for sour attude is based on the fact that you made very simplisitic videos nobody really needed or wanted to watch.

    • @xynyde0
      @xynyde0 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@anniekate76 🤣

  • @_stevenrosa9710
    @_stevenrosa9710 2 ปีที่แล้ว +163

    This guy is giving me flashbacks to my probability and statistics for engineers and I'm UNWELL.

    • @joeboo8626
      @joeboo8626 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Same. I liked the probability part, but the confidence intervals and mu (meyou i don't remember the symbol or spelling)... I had no idea what I was doing. Most confusing class I ever had.

    • @ObtainThePain
      @ObtainThePain 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@joeboo8626 wait if you're in that class, shouldn't you already know mu being the coefficient of friction?

    • @greekstreek370
      @greekstreek370 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      @@ObtainThePain yo man he just said he found the class confusing give him a break

    • @erikrusso9808
      @erikrusso9808 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

      @@ObtainThePain mu is not the coefficient of friction in statistics, variables can be different things in other disciplines

    • @mehwhyausername1
      @mehwhyausername1 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@erikrusso9808 maybe he's talking about the symbol itself, not its usage. most people taking a probability and statistics for engineers class would've already seen mu in a mechanics class, as it's used to represent coeff for friction in that setting. if someone says they forgot the symbol or spelling for mu, that may seem weird to other engineers and scientists, who would think that they would've remembered mu as a Greek letter often used in various contexts.

  • @mohammadalaaelghamry8010
    @mohammadalaaelghamry8010 2 ปีที่แล้ว +35

    Extremely useful, very precise, straight forward and every question is very well explained, thank you.

  • @gopackgo2234
    @gopackgo2234 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    This is what a professor should be. Someone who is passionate and knowledgeable about something and good at explaining things.

  • @_Xeto
    @_Xeto 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    This guy is delightful, and seems so approachable. His students are lucky!

  • @syedzohaibahmed5176
    @syedzohaibahmed5176 2 ปีที่แล้ว +44

    I wish my statistics teacher was like him, I could have learned a lot more.

  • @zjardynliera-hood5609
    @zjardynliera-hood5609 2 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    I saw this guy live along with other stats titans of our era, truly inspirational stuff

  • @DustinWilder96
    @DustinWilder96 35 นาทีที่ผ่านมา

    This man's joyful attitude is contagious, I could easily sit through one of his lectures

  • @gopackgo2234
    @gopackgo2234 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    He words things so well! This is the kind of prof whose class you like going to

  • @wobblyorbee279
    @wobblyorbee279 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    the way he explains make studying the statistics is so fun! the illustrations are good, and i love how he answers step by step

  • @laurenlala6717
    @laurenlala6717 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    I love learning so many different things because of this series. It makes everything so interesting. Thanks wired!

  • @peterkapinos277
    @peterkapinos277 ปีที่แล้ว +22

    Please have this guy on again. As other users have said, I could listen to him for hours, exactly as it was presented.

  • @zeromotivation1817
    @zeromotivation1817 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Thanks , just about to do 1st yr stats course this trimester, was good to check and reinforce my own knowledge.
    The basis for much of this is to assume the event is random, but also often the result(/s) fall within a normal bell curve.
    I normally use red black in roulette to demonstrate independent events and some common fallacies. For example many will bet red if black has come up a lot, the chance of red/black is equal and for the next spin is always equal.

  • @WestExplainsBest
    @WestExplainsBest 2 ปีที่แล้ว +69

    Agreed. Learning more about statistics (and numerous other things) empowers people to think for themselves.
    Don't be blind followers!

    • @themachine9000
      @themachine9000 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      “Cough cough” Trumpies

  • @LightningFireGG5
    @LightningFireGG5 2 ปีที่แล้ว +66

    I needed this when I was taking statistics last year haha

    • @taahaahussain1477
      @taahaahussain1477 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Haha same 😅

    • @eddy2561
      @eddy2561 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Yup, I struggled with stats but needed the class to graduate......

    • @KingTubeAR
      @KingTubeAR 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      finally a nerd, what are the chances of a bot replying to your comment in this particular video

    • @taahaahussain1477
      @taahaahussain1477 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@KingTubeAR high probability

    • @KingTubeAR
      @KingTubeAR 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@taahaahussain1477firstly that is actually wrong, there are more non replied comments than there are ones, and secondly I was asking @flxmexys

  • @paulshayde2426
    @paulshayde2426 ปีที่แล้ว

    I genuinely enjoyed watch this. This guy is so pleasant 😊

  • @s31ispudi7is
    @s31ispudi7is หลายเดือนก่อน

    I love the Tech Support series! Seeing all these people talk about their passions and me and hopefully others, benefitting and learning new things. Thanks WIRED!

  • @twalton
    @twalton 2 ปีที่แล้ว +21

    I really liked this guy. Please bring him back!

  • @AGore88
    @AGore88 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    This is absolutely wonderful, I can tell he's a great professor the way he can explain things but really be full of passion for what he's talking about :)

  • @RainyOctober_
    @RainyOctober_ ปีที่แล้ว +2

    This was done with thought. Well chosen questions proffesionaly answered opening up the subject. Content like this should be more abudant.

  • @nitrogen3514
    @nitrogen3514 ปีที่แล้ว

    I've watched many of these vids and this type is my favorite by far

  • @zusiarosenthal4674
    @zusiarosenthal4674 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    I love how passionate he is about what he does. I love watching people who love what they do; their eyes always light up and they get animated. They’re the ones who make learning fun

  • @irimac1806
    @irimac1806 2 ปีที่แล้ว +39

    I liked the way he explained things. Really nice :D

  • @JibberLang
    @JibberLang 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    This guys is an absolute beauty! Would love to have him as a professor .

  • @unicornwhore88
    @unicornwhore88 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    My favourite Wired video to date! What an interesting and clear guy! Thank you! :)

  • @HolaWorld
    @HolaWorld 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I really enjoyed this! His enthusiasm is contagious.

  • @Gwendolineeve
    @Gwendolineeve 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    an expert that talks about their field is always so interesting and well explained

  • @tourakhosni5927
    @tourakhosni5927 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    i love that concept, you are litteraly making us smarter...

  • @Abhinand-10
    @Abhinand-10 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    TH-cam video recommendation was top-notch for this one!

  • @B.H.56
    @B.H.56 2 ปีที่แล้ว +45

    When my state lottery started, they gave out coupon for a free ticket. I went in and picked 1-2-3-4-5-6. The clerk looked at me askance and said "What are the odds of those numbers coming up?" I said, "exactly the same as any other sequence of numbers."

    • @AntonAdelson
      @AntonAdelson 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      power move right there!

    • @robspiess
      @robspiess 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

      Downside is that many, many other people picked those numbers as well (edit: myself included, whenever asked), and if they come up you would have to split the prize with them.

    • @B.H.56
      @B.H.56 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@robspiess I doubt it, most people are playing birthdays and other "lucky" numbers.

    • @robspiess
      @robspiess 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      @@B.H.56 Yep, most do. But even if .01% are the type to play 123456 that'll still be a dozen people to share the pretty-much-guaranteed-not-to-happen winnings

    • @Ennugia
      @Ennugia 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      That story is as old as time, and it's not yours, Rebecca.

  • @set-tes4316
    @set-tes4316 2 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    As a med student I loooove statistics, I find it essential to understand what goes on with the maths to understand research results and not just read percentages that could mean a lot of things.

    • @syjiang
      @syjiang ปีที่แล้ว

      Be sure to nail the interpretation of p-value like our professor here. A lot of my colleague interpret that value incorrectly. But the most important one to master is Bayesian statistics and the fagan nomogram. Just ask any cardiac consultants.

  • @Tobi_Jones
    @Tobi_Jones ปีที่แล้ว

    this guy have a fantastic approach to these questions, no doubt he is an amazing professor

  • @rudolfvanderven
    @rudolfvanderven ปีที่แล้ว

    One of the most interesting Tech Support episodes! Would love to see more of Jeffrey.

  • @rieskimo
    @rieskimo 2 ปีที่แล้ว +22

    Jeffrey's family member "Wow! It's so weird that we saw you in Disney"
    Jeffrey "...It was pretty likely"

  • @digvijaysinghrana3351
    @digvijaysinghrana3351 2 ปีที่แล้ว +14

    Thanks for uploading it just 18 hours before my stats exam.

  • @tristananastasio9486
    @tristananastasio9486 ปีที่แล้ว

    This was absolutely amazing, bring Jeff back ASAP

  • @Palpatine4Senate
    @Palpatine4Senate ปีที่แล้ว +227

    This guy's hair is a Bell curve.

    • @nandoaires
      @nandoaires 18 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Talk about a true statistics fan. 😀

    • @gamingwithdingo
      @gamingwithdingo 16 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      😂maybe he knows

    • @gamingwithdingo
      @gamingwithdingo 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

      😂maybe he knows

    • @ndowroccus4168
      @ndowroccus4168 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      lol…yesh humsn hair is an hilsrious joke.
      I bet he has more bank potential than 95% of populace. IF he were subject to corruption….

    • @nb9797
      @nb9797 12 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Tails are actually fatter. Don't worry, it's a normal assumption to make.

  • @balltillwefall8284
    @balltillwefall8284 2 ปีที่แล้ว +43

    If I had to pick a statistician out of a crowd of random people, most would pick this guy!! That being said, you can tell that he loves what he does. He speaks with passion and gets his point across clear and concise.

  • @specialknees6798
    @specialknees6798 2 ปีที่แล้ว +21

    statistics is one subject that I find really fascinating and interesting, but it can feel super unapproachable. I'm quite intuitive when it comes to math but stats is one branch of it that I find myself having to frequently relearn. It can be frustrating, but its a super useful field of study when you know how to make use of it

    • @squeakygiant
      @squeakygiant ปีที่แล้ว +1

      If you are already strong in math, simulation could be a good tool to understand some of the core stats concepts. There are lots of simulation examples out there on the internet.

  • @ShoutButterfly
    @ShoutButterfly ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Love this series! Looking forwards to learning more :)

  • @wickytbh
    @wickytbh 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I really enjoyed this episode, Professor Rosenthal gave very good examples and I really appreciated the real-world applications of statistics like the Disneyland bit.

  • @ElizabethDohertyThomas
    @ElizabethDohertyThomas 2 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    REALLY amazing teacher! I love the idea of stats more than the actual stats classes I had to take. :-)

  • @timothymoore2197
    @timothymoore2197 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I'm glad he touched a bit on "Combinatorics" for the viewers, really shows how many possible combinations and probabilities of events there are, if we are thinking about all the different aspects of the situation :-)

  • @hart63
    @hart63 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    One of the best videos entertaining and informative not necessarily in that order wonder what the odds were of that hap

  • @Spektri
    @Spektri ปีที่แล้ว

    I like how the statistic guy has a book of getting hit by lightnings and talks about it. This is a man with so much knowledge and makes it so simple to understand different aspects of stats

  • @realLudwigAhgren
    @realLudwigAhgren 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    This is my favourite wired support so far, this guy is awesome and statistics are awesome.

  • @rizqiefajar
    @rizqiefajar 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    Wow. I knew statistics is important, but this really opened my eyes to how incredibly crucial it is

  • @sukottodja
    @sukottodja 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    This was way more interesting than I expected!

  • @TheBlvision
    @TheBlvision 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I really like the way professor Jeffrey explained things here, pretty lucid.

  • @vspatmx7458
    @vspatmx7458 2 ปีที่แล้ว +31

    the person who understands and uses stats will take better decisions than a person who doesn't use stats.

  • @ernest3286
    @ernest3286 2 ปีที่แล้ว +32

    This is so helpful to explain these concepts! Statistics really is unintuitive, and I think if more people just realized that alone, we'd have a lot less irrational beliefs.

    • @dopaminecloud
      @dopaminecloud 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      The broad concept of bias is definitely worthy of being common knowledge. Both statistical and cognitive.

    • @ernest3286
      @ernest3286 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@dopaminecloud Agreed!

  • @hi_tech_reptiles
    @hi_tech_reptiles ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I used to do political polling, and agreement to do the poll it was *much* less than 10% especially for polls longer than about 3 minutes. Plus the place was very seedy and had strong alterior motives. Corrupt could be arguably a word for it.

  • @paulking8318
    @paulking8318 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great clip thanks for the information no more lotto for me