Evergrande - A Looming Debt Crisis for China? with Anne Stevenson-Yang Ep. 029

What’s up with Evergrande, is there a China debt crisis looming, what about China’s real estate market?
Anne Stevenson-Yang helps us tease these questions apart. She’s been living in China since 1985, co-founded J Capital Research which attempts to find fraud in publicly traded companies with a focus on China. We discuss her first experienced with China, peer into Xi’s motivations and even kick around the idea of a social credit score.
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[@michaelgavinjohnston7985]

I love this woman, ever since I read her book. Here's a quote:
"As the choices on the path forward become starker, the government leans more determinedly on its most powerful tool of governance: its ability to quickly amass and deploy the resources of a massive unified nation. So effective has been the use of credit to stall and cover over problems associated with China’s antiquated political system that it has proven to be irresistible. For the whole of the 2000s to date, China’s has been the most capital-intensive economy in the world, with the result that, by 2013, China’s domestic debt had reached somewhere between 200-250% of GDP. At this writing, one unit of GDP growth requires roughly three units of credit growth-a ratio that has worsened dramatically since before the global financial crisis in 2008. China is like a man who has burned all the trees around his house to keep warm and now is tossing his furniture into the stove. Financial resources, in the end, are limited, and the acceleration in credit to forestall what inevitably must be a sharp recession cannot last much longer."
Stevenson-Yang, Anne. China Alone: The Emergence from and Potential Return to Isolation . Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.

[@axeblue]

I would like to hear more from her. From China's role on the world stage, to its accession, in becoming, one of the so called superpowers of the world; it'll likely face Deflation and an updated outlook on where it wants to be by late 2030's Although, not as reported as much as the US's Inflation or the war happening in Ukraine, this is definitely a momentous changing point for China, as well as the world's impact on trade on a grand scale. Follow China's soon to come Deflation and continue to watch China's continued property Market decline. Personally, I see this as China's delayed Tokyo Bubble, more than a leaman's brothers moment.

[@luctheriault4792]

Very interesting section on the social credit score.

[@cdwatling1]

Grt to see Anne on the podcast/video - many thks Brad. Anne i hope you're well. Its been a while. Atb chris

[@TheEmpiresNewClothes]

Thanks Chris! Hope you're well.

[@jamesmontgomery8249]

Unique to see someone with so much to say not anxious to say it everywhere

[@huawang4181]

She is excessively negative on views of China. This seems to be not an uncommon psycho-cognitive response from Westerners who've lived in China or Hong kong for long periods of time. Similarly, people of immigrant and/or Eastern descent who've lived in the Western world also bear more negative views of Western civilization than often would white populations... My conjecture is that in both cases, cultural and social dysphoria experienced in foreign environments plays a role in the formation of these individuals overly critical view of their adopted civilizations

[@mogeking56]

China 🇨🇳 wants her back 🧐🤨