Are we heading towards the end of civilization?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 มิ.ย. 2024
- Special Edition Do you have a feeling that all is not right with the world?
There’s war, racial conflict, huge economic disparity, political extremism, growing societal discord. And of course climate change.
You wonder - are we on a path to complete self-destruction?
It’s the ultimate question that researcher Luke Kemp has been studying. He’s an expert on global catastrophic risk. He’s looked at the collapse of past civilisations and applies this knowledge to the present day.
Normally our podcast features the work of Canadian researchers but Luke’s work and ideas were so compelling we wanted to have him on to share his views. What are the signs that a civilisation is coming to an end? Do we see those signs now?
What CAN we do about it?
Info on Guest:
Luke Kemp is a Research Affiliate with the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, in the UK. But currently he’s a faculty fellow with the Notre Dame Inst. for Advanced Studies in Indiana, U.S.A. For more info on Luke and his research: www.cser.ac.uk/team/luke-kemp/ and ndias.nd.edu/fellows/kemp-luke/
Check out his article on the collapse of societies: www.bbc.com/future/article/20...
Add’l Info:
We’d really appreciate your support! Please rate our podcast and subscribe and follow us on social @CRAMideas. Thanks for listening!
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When citizens receive no benefit from the system, why would anyone work for and defend it? In 1988 I joined the Air Force and did 4; years. I believed in my country. Not anymore. Everything is a scam, treated badly by employers, the government, the cops. I'm so disappointed and disgusted. Breaks my heart 😢
This is when we have to be strong and aware of our surroundings and help each other and our country through this evolving shift... I feel similar but we have to find some clarity so we can understand what is happening to us... Please don't give up
No disrespect to your guest, but the problem I have these days is how does one know when the information you listen to has been put together through a biased lens.
@@TopDingoMan You have to vet the input! Do you believe everything on the internet? Of course not, you do not, so you filter the facts accordingly with your intelligence !
But, when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.
“Those that have the ability to take action, have the responsibility to take action” 🧐
@@linmal2242politicians ‘facts’ are easy to to spot. Its anytime they open their mouth. Scientific ‘facts’ are harder. Especially now days as they can be bought and paid for. Here’s an example. There are only two ‘scientific’ papers produced that say the recent jabs saved lives. There are dozens of actual scientific papers produced that dissect those two and clearly debunk them as deliberately misleading, and factually inaccurate .Unfortunately, one only hears of the two fraudulent papers via MSM. I look elsewhere and listen to those willing to put their lives and careers on the line , to get the truth out.
Why didn't the interviewer follow-up on energy return on energy invested. When Kemp said we used to get 100 barrels of oil return for one barrel of oil invested and now we get 10 barrels of oil for every barrel invested, it looked like the interviewer was confused, so she moved on, but this concept is SO KEY to what we're experiencing right now that I really wanted to hear how Kemp would expand on it. I don't think many ppl recognize the implications of this equation. I often think of it as a giant Ponzi scheme we are playing with the biosphere, and the stakes are terrifyingly high. Much higher than they've ever been in the past.
Great point! I gather that the fossil fuel companies have to keep talking about growing demand in order to keep the investment dollars flowing into new plays, thus keeping stock prices up. Remember in the early days of fracking there was talk of a bubble? That the plays weren't producing as predicted?
@@lshwadchuck5643 Yes, I remember. I think it's also significant that in Canada we keeping hearing how transitioning to a "green" future is dependent on the continuing success of the fossil fuel industry. It reminds me of someone in an abusive relationship insisting that they need to go back one more time because "this time it will be different." We really struggle to imagine a different future for ourselves, so we keep going back to the old one, which, of course, is no longer viable.
Great point.
I agree about the fossil fuel industry. 5,500 metric tons of phytoplankton are converted to oil to allow cars to drive 1 inch at freeway speeds. Look up on Wikipedia an article called "Limits to Growth" a 1972 MIT study that predicts the collapse of society by 2040. Apparently we are ahead of schedule. Peace
Yes Nate Hagens of the Great Simplification podcast interviews with Art Berman { oil industry expert} on EROI {energy return on investment} & its scary peak oil especially the slurrping sound of Fracking not getting more oil, but getting more out of the bottom of the barrel hence the slurrp - fracking is a bigger straw not a bigger oil field, looks good on quaterlies. Plus the Saudis (& they are not alone} have been playing fast & loose with their figures & they cant pay for the crazy vanity projects like Neom anymore.
But Nate dosent just look at oil etc, he interviews many extistential threat experts in their respective feilds &.... more importantly possible integrated solutions { Simon P Michaux on the eroi mineral green transition is worth deep consideration}.
I am 75. In my life time the global population has QUADRUPLED. The cumulative demand of 8 billion people is a societal stressor that we barely talk about probably because a growing population base is GREAT for GDP and GWP. In other words, greed and perpetual wealth accumulation is great for the recipients at the top of the socio-economic spectrum but very detrimental to those at the bottom of it. Our oligarchic decision-makers are making "big bank". Most of us are not.
Most of my girl friends never liked the idea either.
The last 80 years has had a 350% increase in people and the next 80 years it will be lucky to go over 35%.What you have seen is changing around you, 23 countries will lose half their populations due to less children. Africa has 9 of the worlds 13% that is arable land and largely untouched. I'm not saying system change doesn't need to happen, but it is happening, big banks, companies that expect growth like you have been part of is not going to be the future. The people that have been alive the last 80 years have experienced the greatest amount of energy able to be used on them and the greatest change, the next generations could move back to times of 80 years ago and horses become normal again. It wasn't anybody's fault that diesel and fertiliser meant you are a product of those times, just like the 9 x multiplication that came from coal, to blame anybody for these things and the life it gave you is deflection for me.
The last 80 years has had a 350% increase in people and the next 80 years it will be lucky to go over 35%.What you have seen is changing around you, 23 countries will lose half their populations due to less children. Africa has 9 of the worlds 13% that is arable land and largely untouched. I'm not saying system change doesn't need to happen, but it is happening, big banks, companies that expect growth like you have been part of is not going to be the future. The people that have been alive the last 80 years have experienced the greatest amount of energy able to be used on them and the greatest change, the next generations could move back to times of 80 years ago and horses become normal again. It wasn't anybody's fault that diesel and fertiliser meant you are a product of those times, just like the 9 x multiplication that came from coal, to blame anybody for these things and the life it gave you is deflection for me.
The people that have been alive the last 80 years have experienced the greatest amount of energy able to be used on them and the greatest change, the next generations could move back to times of 80 years ago and horses become normal again. It wasn't anybody's fault that diesel and fertiliser meant you are a product of those times, just like the 9 x multiplication that came from coal, to blame anybody for these things and the life it gave you is deflection, for me.
75? So you live through the threats of nuclear Armageddon in the 1950's and 60's. You lived through the 1950 claim that America had reached peak oil. The 1973 energy crisis, the 1970's threats of an ice age, the threats that we were all going to starve by the 1980's due to overpopulation and even lived through Y2K.
Every single one of these episodes failed to materialize and all began with the words "scientists say". Have you learned nothing?
you know you're in trouble when the Insurance industry actuaries start raising huge red flags about things. when the bean counters get scared, its real.
That’s also possibly a power play to grab land & assets…
…many commercial & residential activities - like owning land & assets - requires insurance in the chain.
Remove that link and give it time = right to acquire
Yes any loan ((home) you have to be insured what will happen when you can't get it or cost to much turnover sell and loose equity, realtors,speculators , time to score on fabricated problem,or exacerbated ,bump , change of wealth not for the betterment of rule following folk who never were listen to when making rules, Peace
@@BeardLAD That is not their principle business; accumulating properties. Underwriting solvency is !
Civilisation ended a while back. This is just the enertia of the wheel as it slowly stops.
Rome took centuries to collapse. It was probably only clear in hindsight.
Systemic entropy!
Inertia
I loved spelling in HS
@@paulchace2391 Oops! Thanks.
The bigger it is the longer it takes to fall to the ground
As a person who studied and worked with soil, plant and water resources, I’m very concerned about our ability to continue to feed eight billion people. Given our still growing population, combined with our degraded and paved over farmland, depleted and polluted fresh water, increasing wars, and the big Kahuna, our rapidly heating climate, it isn’t a question of if civilization will collapse but how soon. We could also talk about declining ROI/increasing costs of fertilizer, water, fishing, agriculture, and other essentials. Add the fragility of our unequal and over complex society and our inability to take preventive actions and our outlook becomes even more dire.
I take kelp a fish called caplin and sawdust with shells of the crab and put into the soil. But then again I only have to spend two hours gathering wild food to keep myself alive but if everyone done that wild food sources would collapse.
Global famine by 2026 was what I uncovered in 2012. I’ve been prepping ever since for it.
I share all these concerns. Yet population loss, not growth, is where have been and are. Global population could be halved naturally already within our lifetimes. Add to that habitat loss, you get a reshaping of a post-complex society and the ultimate extinction of vertebrates.
Toss in drugs gang stalking directed energy weapons and far right extremism along with v2k weapons of warfare being used on the general public and pretty much I think you’re probably right 15 - 20 years is about it
The world had for sale enough food for everybody on the planet last year, the last 80 years has had over a 350% increase in people and the next 80 years it will be lucky to go over 35%. Africa has 9 of the worlds 13% that is arable land and largely untouched. I'm not saying system change doesn't need to happen but it could be getting better rather than as worse.
Perhaps the reason large societies become more fragile over time is because they become more complex. The number of different kinds of professions, and the increased degree of networked, or interconnected parts of the economy increases as a population grows. People become more specialized, jobs become more specialized, and governments become larger and more complicated too. This complexity has a cost that rises faster than the benefits of the complexity. Eventually the cost of complexity bankrupts, (so to speak) a society.
The increasing fragility of increasingly complex systems is apparent when you realize that the more parts a system has, the more likely something will go wrong causing the system to crash. The space shuttle crashed because one ceramic tile fell off. A brand new car can stop simply because a single small part breaks. If a factory can't get a part for their widgets, then no widgets get made even though all the other parts needed are there.
Fragility increases as complexity increases, which increases maintenance costs and decreases useful lifespans of things. For example: a new car has far more parts than a fifty year old car. The long term reliability of the old, simpler car is much higher than the more complex newer car. The cost of maintaining and paying for it is much higher for a newer car than an old one.
Dr. Joseph Tainter wrote a seminal book on this called:"Collapse of Complex Societies."
Excellent point 👍
Where have you found a civilized society on Earth these days?
Singapore
@@mikeharrington5593 Not sure I'd characterize a totalitarian dictatorship as civilized.
Anglo and Scandinavian countries before "diversity" became a strength.
PRC
Indigenous/ First People
If democracy equates to greater resilience, then conversely, authoritarianism equates to greater weakness. With authoritarianism on the rise, the answer to the question of whether or not the world is heading toward the end of civilization seems to be an inextricable yes.
Joseph Tainter explains civilisational collapse…
…Byzantine empire was the only one to survive a great simplification, because they took the steps necessary ahead of catastrophic collapse.
Thanks, both. Yes, we are collectively doing everything our ancestors did just before their civilisations collapsed. Knowing this, we will carry on until we too, collapse. Smart humans my ass.....
The flaw in that is assuming it is a sudden and total event. It will be uneven, incremental, prolonged and disordered. A quick collapse would be akin to do something because we could start rebuilding the next day.
@@Rnankn Agreed. Collapse is a process, not an event. The 'rebuilding' issue is interesting, though. How would we rebuild it? Using the same obviously flawed model as we have now? I sincerely hope the survivors would realise the self-destructive nature of industrial capitalism... I hate the word 'hope'...
@@russtaylor2122How do you rebuild? With fewer people. If the electricity goes out in America, 300 million fewer in 3 months.
@@gcanaday1 Depends to what standard you rebuild to. The long term survivors post collapse will need to live like stone age cavemen whilst not getting fried by ionizing radiation from melting nuclear power plants.... Buckle up.
Either we clean up our act or Mother Nature will clean it up for us and humanity goes in the waste bin.
Not just the end of a chapter, but the end of a volume, with more to come.
Ecocide: Easter Island, Greenland. Currently happening: Haiti
Easter Island absolutely.
Greenland, kinda not the Vikings fault.
They lucked into the Medieval Warm Period and were able to do sheep/oats level sub-arctic agriculture for a brief window, before the Ice set back in.
The Haiti/DR border is a perfect example of how wealthy is not always environmentally worse.
In DR, even the lower economic level population can afford to cook their meals on propane. West of the border they have to cut down every tree, burn away and waste 80% of it to make and sell charcoal to cook their meals. You can easily see the resulting deforestation from satellite pictures.
Civilization has a tendency to collapse.
We will face famine at unexpected proportions!!!!
Based on what data!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lol at how many exclamation points I used!!!!
My reply is important!!!!!!!!!!
Well heck, I guess if you say so!!!!!
@@anthonymorris5084 I was speaking for India. No comment on your part of the world !!!
A real and growing risk is multiple breadbasket failure, where several of the world's food growing regions (i.e. source of calories) experience extreme weather conditions at the same time, and so dramatically reduce the amount of food available to feed the 8 billion people on the planet. These simultaneous weather events, such as floods and droughts become more likely as climate change (or 'weather wierding' as Paul Beckwith calls it) progresses.
Capitalism and global trade and cooperation is based on confidence that continued growth is possible and likely......once that confidence is broken then the whole system will collapse....
That's as I understand the risks.
@@guruprasadf07 Droughts are caused by nature, famines are caused by humans.
That was a really interesting discussion, I'll look forward to the book, It made me instantly want to read more of Luke's work.
On the point at the end, to bring about a more inclusive and representative democracy, there seems to be an inherent problem where the people with the power are free to choose whether or not to give some power away. This seems to be a massive stumbling block. The exact situation by the sound of the idea in France you illustrated, mock power given away to the group proposing the ideas, but real power kept, by choosing the ones to enact.
I would love the idea of a state where as a part of excepting any brief, a politician or civil servant must sign up to work within the sector they're responsible for after. In research about how power corupts people, I would like to see how it changes when you know that in the next phase of the study the Guard, becomes the prisoner.
I completely agree and have thought about this before too. It would be great if every policy consideration was voted on by 'The People' via the internet. So there would be a question like "Should subsidies to fossil fuels be transferred to renewables this year?" Then people would vote on it. We don't need in my opinion representatives we vote for, we just need some impartial entity, like a computer to tally votes. There would have to one heck of an encryption code to reduce corruption, but if it could be done then POWER would be where it needs to be amongst 'The People', not a few people that can be corrupted by big money influence or are subject to their own biases that likely do not fit what most people want. The reason it would be so hard to ever set up is because the very people with the Power won't give it up without a huge fight.
That's a great idea! Also fMRI empathy testing for very powerful politicians and bureaucrats whose decisions will impact billions of lives. We have so much technology available to us today; we need to leverage it to make a better world!
"Armageddon? It's not going to happen in my lifetime." That was common to hear 30 years ago...haven't heard it since 2008.
The mindset is still there. I overheard a young woman at a restaurant saying to her family that she is only an organ donor because she wanted a cute heart on her license, and because she believes that she’ll never die in a car accident anyway. People still think like this
You will hear it, but how soon who knows?
People have been predicting the end of the world since humans began making predictions. Scientists, economists, soothsayers and average people have an abysmal track record of predicting the future.
@@anthonymorris5084 Not exactly the case in climate change. The climate models show serious warming very quickly. But the climate models have been around since the late 60's/70's - and so predictions made twenty years ago are now able to be compared with actual observations. What is happening is that the models have proved to be generally correct but further, they have proved to have been generally conservative. The weather conditions we are seeing today are more severe, than the climate models predicted. The other thing is that besides this rear vision endorsement of the models... with technology they are becoming more detailed and specific. Now - instead of just ice core samples - there is widespread use of satellite imagery and measurement. So to say that humans have an abysmal track record of predicting the future is no longer necessarily true.
Glad you are all wise. We can now all rest well.
Answer: A RESOUNDING YES
Australia has one dominant language which is English? We have well over six hundred first nations languages that are in free fall since colonization.
Well it is nice that we can all communicate in one language
The ozone layer is too thin to protect us from the ultraviolet rays. Next to come the X-ray .
The ozone layer has been healing nicely ever since we stopped releasing massive quantities of ozone-destroying gases. It still has a way to go, but we fixed that problem the way we fixed acid rain - by listening to the scientists and stopping doing harm to our environment.
Humans can change our behaviour and we can live at peace with the ecosystems that support us. We just need to choose to do that.
More people , more stress . More complexity and then more conflict , more stress , and war .
In summary, the more stakeholders in a society the more resilient to external shocks
Cool
Except having a stake can be regressive when it is an exclusive institution like property, because it concentrates power. That’s why he stressed democratization and public capacity, because citizenship is inclusive and diffuses power broadly.
My native grandmother wouldn't think it was the end of civilization but the beginning of it. She taught me ancestor knowledge to survive off the land and Sea. I actually have no pity for any middle class urbanites because you didn't take time to learn skills to keep you alive.. The old should plant trees who's shade they will never sit under. We will enter a time of local warlords as the system breaks down. The middle class is there to keep the working class in their place. The middle management class never does well in civilization collapse. Personally I don't hate you but you must know your oppression.
I wish I’d had an elder who taught me those things. I’m a middle aged urbanite who is lower middle class. I am terrified for my children most of all. I wish I had the knowledge and skills to teach them the things that you learned. I fantasize about moving to a small piece of land in a rural area and learning to live off the land, but I’m 46 and I don’t even now where to begin. I have had a small garden in my back yard and I compost, but I don’t know how to grow enough food to live on or how to hunt. I feel like it would be a better investment to send my kids to folk school/wilderness survival school rather than an expensive university when they are out of high school. I wish I knew how to sew and make butter, in addition to what I learned in college, which was mostly how to write a good paper. 🤦♀️
Why do you think your native ancestors hadn't invented the wheel, steel making, farming, domesticated animals or the written word? And I'm supposed to take advice from someone who is laced with sanctimony and is advocating an hunter gatherer existence ?
@anthonymorris5084 - those hunter/ gatherers lived in harmony with the earth and its ecosystems. Maybe your idea of an advanced society is the lower conscience one.
@@williamh4172 Sure, because they had this "pristine" gene in their DNA that no other human has, which made them angelic harmonious people who never went to the bathroom or produced an ounce of garbage. Are you for real?
These people had a life expectancy of around 24. They lived a life of suffering and misery. The all suffered from malnutrition and struggled to survive in the "ecosystem" that tried to kill them at any opportunity. Try going camping without an ounce of modern equipment, good luck with that. We'll see how harmonious you are.
@anthonymorris5084 When humans walked away from the wild, we walked away from ourselves. I suppose we let our egos and imaginations run wild. The End.
World citizens unite, level out the power structure, share and manage that power democratically across the globe.
Not just end of civilization but well into 6th mass extinction. 10C already on the pipeline with the amount of CO2 in atmosphere already and accelerating. Large mammals will not survive incoming temps but we should treat each other well on our way out and preserve as much biodiversity as possible.
Yes, we, (the goons of the solar system), owe that to life on Earth, and not merely our own. Ten million years from now, maybe something with a complex brain, and the ability to manipulate matter, will take our place, and be much gentler, and kinder.
Not an ounce of evidence for these ridiculous predictions. The only thing causing animal extinction is over fishing, poaching and habitat destruction due to human encroachment from incessant rising populations. Warming hasn't killed anything.
Nobody is predicting 10C, get a grip.
I think it really depends on where you live. If you live in Canada where I do warming up climate will be welcome if you live in Africa where I hope to be living in six months a year as my wife is from there you do not want to be there during the summer.
@@user-wc7ns4mu9v People are talking so much about climate, that the breakdown of ecosystems around the world, is sort of being swept under the rug. But the sixth mass extinction marches on, as a huge threat to our species also.
No C02=No Plants= No humans. The sun causes climate change it runs on 12000 year cycles sub divide into 6000 and 3000 year cycles. It also causes Volcanoes Earthquakes and Ozone depletion by ionising the upper atmosphere. It also influences the Heinrich Bond cycle which alters the direction of the gulf stream. Before each cycle kicks in the planet naturally warms up. North Pole Ice has increased 25% this year and Polar Bears are thriving.
I will leave you with this advice. Cattail roots have the same nutritional quality as a potato and potatoes are super food's and contains everything you need besides vitamin K...
Awesome Opossum! I literally was just looking at edible plant's in OK and saw the Copious amounts of cattails and wondered if they were edible.
In Oregon the Camus Flower has a Root that's very similar in properties. Just in case you get hungry in the PNW.
Seriously a few wild foraging books need to be in every humans possession. Most will simply Starve waiting for rescue. Sigh...
All Devo Spuds know this.
If you grow your own food in your own backyard, you won't need to forage - and wild systems won't be able to support large numbers of foragers anyway.
If you grow enough food in your backyard for a few extra people, you'll be able to recruit your neighbours to help you retain ownership of that food when other people get desperate and you have to choose between their needs and your own.
If you've got enough land for a full market garden, you've got a business in the now and also your whole village will prioritise protecting you and your land in a crisis.
Yes I have grown much of my food from childhood as a Homesteading family in Big Sur on a Ranch. Then worked on Organic Farm and lived there in Santa Cruz. Last Farm in the city limits. It's all condos now. Sigh...
Then WA Olympia excellent place for a very productive garden and orchards.
I am disabled now and traveling with my Co Creator. We are Nomadic hunter gathering type humans who follow the Seasons.
We have set Intention for another home base property that is not too close to urban areas and has a dedicated water supply and or rainfall collection.
We are Self Sustainable as fat as basic power off grid needs. We collect and use whatever the particular environment provides. Rockhounding and jewelry creations are always a Barter item when we encounter larger groups of other Nomads.
All on has to do is return to the pattern that's encoded within the crystalline structure of pur very DNA. The Natchez Trace for example MILLENIA of humans have walked those trails and gathered to trade and inter merry. It's a Very peaceful existence.
And if some of my more frightening visions of our possible futures arrives we will at least be mobile and have a chance at survival. I AM Curious and have no children of my body.
Time to hang on check our bucket for holes and enjoy the F ing Ride. Holding us in the Light of Source.
The Trinity "Don't combust the Atmosphere" scare was actually an example of decisions done right.
The issue was taken so seriously that research on the question was commissioned OUTSIDE of the Top Secret walled garden of the Manhattan Project.
Corruption dominates technology and energy so....we're doomed...
Let's not forget human population and ecological overshoot, which no amount of technology will 'fix'... There's no 'saving lives', only 'postponing deaths'...
Good thing we don't live on a planet the size of New Jersey. Over shoot? We've barely tapped into this planet.
@@anthonymorris5084 You're so confident of that, why are you watching this? Stop trolling, you're part of the problem, not part of the solution...
@@russtaylor2122 Disputing arguments is not trolling. Using shaming to shut down dissent is trolling and cowardice. I watch these videos to educate the perpetually fearful and the plague of myopia.
Data proves that humanity has never been safer, healthier or more prosperous than at any time in history. Over the last 200 years this trend has accelerated.
@@anthonymorris5084 I've read this kinda crap from you before. I'll repeat what i said then: Lucky you. Look almost everywhere else in the world that isn't your comfortable middle-class american suburb and you will see the truth. But you won't.
@@russtaylor2122 I follow the data and evidence and stand by everything I've stated. I suggest you stop listening to wild hyperbolic speculations of future events that never materialize and start examining the data from actual events that have transpired.
Whatever metric you care to examine, it's all improved *right across the globe.* Access to electricity, access to education, access to clean water, access to health care, university graduates, literacy, emancipation of women, opportunity, GDP growth, poverty reduction, agricultural production, sources of energy, standards of living, quality of life, leisure time, mobility and transportation, communication, available information, technological advancements, disease eradication, life expectancy, nutrition, crime, war, sanitation, recycling, all improving. This information is easily sourced from authoritative sites. I suspect you just don't want to look.
The history of humanity is a story of impoverishment and suffering. Everything changed with the discovery of oil in the late 1800's. The modern world that you enjoy and take for granted is an utter anomaly and like it or not there is a direct correlation with access to inexpensive reliable energy and wealth.
There are no net fossil fuel subsidies. Quite the contrary. The government takes huge amounts of money from fossil fuel companies. In Alaska, it takes so much that the government pays the people instead of having an income tax.
No, there are massive net subsidies to fossil fuel companies, including the use of the US military to keep the oil flowing. No other industry has been so heavily subsidized.
@@karlwheatley1244 The oil industry pays government. The government does not pay the oil industry. No. The Military is not needed to keep oil flowing. The military is used in other countries, not here, to make sure that oil that does flow is sold in US dollars.
People are constantly stretching things that government does anyway to say they are subsidies to companies not getting subsidies. Like saying when a Walmart employee gets food stamps that somehow Walmart is getting a subsidy. It's nonsense.
What can we do? Mobilize, mobilize, mobilize.
Roughly every 12,000 years the Sun will cleanse the earth with fire and glass, releasing the magnetic crust/mantle lock causing the icecaps to rotate to the equator, bringing forth catastrophic flooding and the cycle starts all over again 🤷🏻♂️
The irony of what he's saying about the very real need for more inclusive institutions, is that those already claiming to be inclusive don't even respond to approaches of any kind from the outside.. including the one he works for. You can talk about ecocide, but someone needs to come up with an apt term that describes this additional symptom of impending civilizational collapse.
Delightful people, wonderful show, owe some topic, tky, much appreciated. I would say this: no body in their right mind would board a plane knowing it to be heading for disaster. The main thing we need to do is educate everyone we can like the gospel , this can be organized starting with one self and creating groups everywhere in the world and being linked,
What I propose to begin with is to create a bicycle path that you can go anywhere, and every where, away from cars ( as much as possible) surrounded by trees, having parks along the way as well as a bike repair shops, a cafe, picnic hear and there, and that would create the environment to facilitate this enormous global movement to take care of business, we should not allow this madness to destroy us all , it doesn’t have to be this way, and in the other hand we got nothing to lose and everything to gain.
We must identify clearly the culprit, money, capitalism, greed can not and should not be in contrast with human development, there is a deeply wrong spiritual equation with that picture, we can do it, if we want, and perhaps, any way is just what we need to have a truly fantastic world, I believe that(, as the host said ) in people as good if given the opportunity, specially when you realize, we got no choice. Tky all ❤️🙏🏽🤞🏼👍🏼
This guy with David Icke and Ismael Perez would be a great roundtable discussion.
The biggest thing I learned is how energy blind civilization in general is. Knowing how much oil powers society, the EROI of oil in general and what resources we can extract in general should be a base piece of knowledge. You can't understand what solutions to climate, economics or collapse are even feasible without this. As an example Electric cars have incredible resource demands that to build 100s of millions will require a massive mining expansion (beyond discovered sources if you want them powered on non fossil fuel electricity). The simple solution is probably to phase out most road transportation with something new or go back to rail. That said nice to hear Mary's voice again used to listen on the radio.
Public transit is achievable. But it would entail rethinking cities and how economies work. We have a carbon economy, so without carbon needs change dramatically.
What a thoughtful podcast. My gratitude!
Don’t inject Hopium-spare yourself the agony of failure…
... Depending upon just how one defines " Civilization " some of us are waiting for it to start.
Try finding an economist who discusses planned obsolescence. Do they understand enough about technology to figure it out?
I asked a PhD economist to explain how an automobile engine worked. He could not even start but he drove a white SUV.
There were 200,000,000 motor vehicles in the US in 1995. What happened to the depreciation? Weren't they added to GDP when they were purchased?
But Karl Marx used the word 'depreciation' 35 times in the first two volumes of his major work and automobiles had not even been invented.
Check out the Net Domestic Product equation and see how consumer depreciation fits into the picture.
Running a planet of Eight Billion People on aberrant algebra makes so much sense.
Yes, and thank god! It can't end soon enough.
This is fascinating
This is not complicated. When the food/water eventually runs precariously ow, that's when the crunch comes. Who knows what will happen exactly, and what people will do, when there's no more food on the shelves. Maybe people won't immediately turn violent, as I suppose it would all depend on the seriousness and the extent of the lack of readily available food and supplies. But that's all it would come down to. In our hyper-interdependent society, where all of us are totally reliant on the proverbial food on the shelves always reliably being there, when that stops for whatever reason, you can expect all hell to break loose. If it happens slowly and gradually which I suppose it could and would, the 'elites' could try to be proactive and hoard what's left of the diwindling food on the shelves, with the deprived society at large somehow not collapsing, but that would be tricky to pull off. The general public wouldn't just sit there and accept their fate. And real violence would eventually ensue. And the strong would survive and the weak would be overrun. And most of the 'elites', or even the more modestly well to do, are extremely weak, vulnerable and defenseless, and are even more reliant than most on well-behaved civilizational norms, and, crucially, food and supplies always being readily available for purchase with legal tender. It's the violence they have at their disposal as it were, in the form of armies, police, hired goons, etc, that elites have nominal authority over, that always comprises the real power. They are merely neutered in peacetime by the norms and rules of civilized life where law and order typically reigns supreme. And without reliable foodstuffs and general life supplies always available on demand, to be paid for and secured with money, the proverbial center simply would not hold. And then you get 'collapse'. And people, at all levels and rungs of society, who are used to expect deference or respect on the basis of superior money/status, can no longer expect such deference to be forthcoming. Which could be the real driver of total societal disintegration, at least in America's unofficial, unspoken but highly stratified society, that of the complete reversal of fortunes that would accompany societal collapse, and do much to hinder vitally important cooperative behavior in very hard, very uncertain times. Not to mention the overpowering grief, anguish and despair at the loss of their previous standard of living as well the shattering of all the comforting fictions that helped sustain it.
Could society come together, in anticipation of such a grim scenario bearing down on us, so as to avoid lawless mayhem and violence when the shortages and scarcity finally come to pass? Personally I would say almost no chance at all. That largely people behave themselves as well as they do principally because of the consequences to themselves, not least of which the implicit threat of violence should they ever step out of line, as well as sheer inertia and unthinking habit. And not so much because of a wholesome and resilient moral fiber to behave well and do the right thing on principle. And people flatter and deceive themselves if they think otherwise, which of course people do all the time about everything just to maintain their basic sanity and keep their egos afloat. And the arbiters of that sort of legitimized violence in the form of police and armies, ie the elites, would never take any steps in good faith to prepare society to cooperate and share the reduced resources in any brotherly, self-sacrificing sort of way. What they might attempt, in specific anticipation of very hard times, is to greatly beef up the size and muscle of the violence they control. So they can maintain overwhelming force and threat of violence over an increasingly restive general public. But when the thin veneer of civilized life is seriously attenuated and exposed, those same police, armies, etc. would presumably at some point just seize power directly for themselves. And inevitably, anarchy and chaos to some very considerable degree would erupt in one form or another. And the basic running of society would be badly compromised or even obliterated, made even worse as discussed in this video, on account of how overextended are modern society's myriad supply chains. At best we'd have some form of warlordism to enforce some minimalist running of what's left of society, or else we'd lapse into utter anarchy, something like Cormac McCarthy's The Road.....
That's the most likely scenario.
One of my favorite books…..and yes, I generally agree your description of the future. Current events give credence to your conclusions.
Forgive me I didn't read your entire wall of words, but if you want food production to cause problems then just end fossil fuels and you will witness a truly Mad Max world. Inexpensive reliable energy is everything.
Ethical anarchy " liberty, sovereignty, cooperation "
we are the children of the communities that co-operated ,
It's cooperation that survives,,,,,,simple fact,,,,
I agree with your analysis.....some say we are 3 meals away from anarchy, some say 9 meals.....
The name 9 Meals From Anarchy was coined from a phrase by an American investigative journalist, who said that no matter how civilised, society was never more than three days, or nine meals, away from anarchy.
Wrong about subsidies. If we eliminate subsidies we put billions in poverty and famine. I laugh at people who want the system to continue which is destroying the planet and believe that fossil fuels is the issue with our climate change.
Climate change is a result of our civilization and it doesn’t matter if we could live without fossil fuels, which we can’t without starving billions of people and causing war around the world. While he may know about complexity but he doesn’t know shit about who he eats and lives doing his research. If we don’t change our economic system to a system of caring for each other and living our lives instead of hoarding resources and making money while believing in our universal superiority we will die out like all other sentient species of the galaxy we can’t see any signs of. The people who think they are more intelligent then the rest of us are the people who are leading us to destruction by chasing their dreams at the expense of all of us.
I appreciate Luke's contributions to synthesising the scholarship on the collapse of past civilisations and his call for more work on catastrophic climate risks. But attempts to read off from ancient civilisations for what to do about our current predicament tend to be superficial and highly subjective (I go into it that in my book Breaking Together). Knowing academia, I sense that attempts for contemporary relevance are secondary to being a scholar within a discipline. That is because to be relevant to informing policy and action one needs to be transdisciplinary (and not just a researcher) in a way that University careers don’t support. It would be a grave mistake to assume that studying collapse in more detail means taking it to heart. Instead, intellectualising is often a way of avoiding acceptance and action. Intellectualising keeps it at a distance. We can keep smiling. Especially on podcasts. Yes, as Luke says, we need more participatory democracy. Whether populism might get us there is an interesting point for an academic debate. But what does that mean more precisely? Populism where for instance? Across the Sahel, in the form of anti-imperialist revolutions that might push degrowth in the West? That's the kind of thing we don't hear from many Western Intellectuals at the moment.
Great Interview, subscribed. Luke Kemp is a wonderful guest.
More focus on problems with minimal focus on solutions. Why? Solutions are SO difficult most simply dodge.
Glubb's Fate of Empires is a quick read which describes what happens to people in empires and why they eventually collapse
The last time our ancestors lived in a sustainable, ecologically balanced manner was a few thousands of years ago when they were Hunter-Gatherers living in migratory clans/bands. Their numbers were 1/3000th of our today and we are consuming the planet, while creating an apocalypse of pollution, including heat and petroleum by-products like fertilizers and plastics. BTW, "complex" societies are the natural result of massive human overpopulation/overconsumption. H-G clans of no more than 150 members (Dunbar number) are egalitarian and mostly matriarchal, as are many Native American clans yet today. Where we went off the rails, was when we moved from the real territories where H-Gs bumped up against one another, like Papua New Guiney, and moved to the infinitly expandable symbolic territories that this lovely intellectual foray exemplifies. We could eat up a thousand earths and still not exhaust the potential our generation of new BS.
yes,can you imagine the resources 7.9 billion sub human apes would have consumed say a million years ago and the impact they would have had on other animals habitat and plants,of course nature wouldn't allow that then,the industrial revolution rapidly allowed us to push aside natures checks and balances but as quickly as we rose in 200 years we may collapse faster
Straight to the point title. ... So far so good 👍
Liked the video. First time watching your channel. There is a slight high-pitched whine when you speak into your microphone. It's not the worst, but it did make me think I was having a bit of tinnitus 😅
If Energy Returned on Energy Invested is at 10 and falling, consideration of that single metric should be at very top of the agenda in every country on Earth. But at best, we could merely delay collapse.
"We have no intrinsic right to our next breath".
Yes, all indicators are flashing in bright red on all fronts. We have lost the plot, our values & decency. Few countries are still in tact unfotunately with little clout. We are in the 8th Distinction.
C.S. Goto - 'Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.'
"No, comrade, its just beginning"
In the first 5 seconds, I fuckin' love this guy! Great interview! Thank you for doing this, looking forward to following more of Dr. Doom's work! :)
So much convergence with other thinkers and opinion formers. Gary Stevenson (inequality economics), George Monbiot (participatory democracy, climate, environment, dark money), Noah Yuval Harari (world history, theory of human co-operation, AI predictions) and many others I could name. Thanks for the podcast and I look forward to the book!
The Earth is now going through an extinction level event and the human population will continue to exist after a massive population collapse however, there will be a lot less life diversity.
Are you talking about Underground? When the 440 plus nuclear power plants melt down life will be kind of miserable on the surface😢
The civilisation decline causes: Fossil fuels supply about 85% of global energy. Only about 15-17% of global energy comes from all other low emissions; hydro, nuclear, wind, biofuels, and solar. The metals and minerals needed to replace fossil fuels with low emission energy are simply not available for geological reasons. Consequently fossil fuels will be used to economic depletion within a few decades, when the cost of supply of commodities is more than the ability to pay. For geological reasons fossil fuels will be in short supply within a decade or two, and largely depleted by the end of this century. This will increase the global warming emissions, so warming will exceed 4 C and sea level rise of 2-3 m before 2100. The cost of agricultural production is 95% the energy input, mostly fossil fuels. In addition the supply of P, K, N for fertilizers is already in short supply.
Scientists, economists, soothsayers and basically all of humanity have an abysmal track record at predicting the future. I'm not certain that your crystal ball works any better.
There has never been a greater ratio of oil consumption and known reserves in history. We are finding oil and gas everywhere.
Good drill baby drill.
@@anthonymorris5084it's not about whether we know where the oil is. It's about the material and energy limitations to extract the oil. As they said in this video, the EROEI is decreasing every year for fossil fuels. We are also experiencing this with many materials.
@@anthonymorris5084 Actually not true. The forecasting research says the most accurate forecast other then extrapolating current trends for the period in question is weather forecasting 7-14days ahead. However the head of Shell Reaseach made accurate forecasts about future oil production in the 1950's. Due the research of the Shell Oil company and the US Geological Survey in the 1940/50s the Theory Of Plate Tectonics was scientifically accepted in the 1960's. This provided the geological mechanism for the formation of most commodities. With increasing understanding of geology most economic reserves of commodities have already been discovered. Indeed the decline in new discoveries has been quite rapid since 1980. For oil in no year since 1980 has a greater volume been discovered than has been extracted, and current discoveries are below 10% of consumption. The only truth in economics is: "The supply will meet the demand that has the ability to pay". Who will have the ability to pay?
@@ComlucDeluc Geologists say show us where to drill, because we have looked and found only very difficult and expensive to produce small reserves that need in excess of US$150/barrel to be viable.
A good discussion. There may be some natural everyday optimism when looking thru the front windshield, but pessimism is closing in on the rear view mirror
Absolutely is the end of the oil,fiat$,liebased empire
I'm new. Found the discussion excellent.
Yes. People's will understand that they will not see the kids or have a normal live anymore anywhere never, so they'll destroy all the little things that make civilización posible like electricity or water , ... and there we go to the pretty medieval times 😢
The prospect of the end of civilisation is only depressing if you believe it's inevitable. If you believe there will be at least pockets of civilisation that survive, then the natural response is to be very energised towards either joining a likely pocket, or creating one around where you already are.
It's depressing whether or not you personally survive because billions of people will die, millions of species will go extinct, and the Earth will be just a shadow of its former glory.
will you do one on the utopian mouse experiment?
Power shared is knowledge multiplied🎉
Brilliant content. ❤ I’m going to call you Dr Don’t Look Up. It’s not an insult, it’s a compliment.
Question: how do you stay soo cool calm and collected and do you find that you’ve become a target for disinformation and hate ?
You need to check your mic there's a very high pitch noise to it and it hurts
All civilizations and cultures decline in fully literate population. Its a natural process. The Romans were at 1% when Julius Ceaser got knifed and the Republic transitioned to Imperialism. Ancient Greece was at 1% when the cult of Zeus emerged and rewrote greek history to include Zeus.
If the fully literate population of America is Doctorate educated, then the USA is at less than 2% fully literate. Australia is less tyan 1%. Australia has socialism which encourages higher education for populace but that populace is being farmed by the US who plunder Australia's taxpayer funded doctorate educated population while not doing the same for their own US population while Anyone doctorate educated from Australia working in china is painted as a Traitor by Australian media.
How about by 2030 when the Arctic summer sea ice all melts and the loss of the albedo effect (reflecting sunlight back into space). Some estimates put it equivalent to one trillion tons of CO2 emission and an immediate increase of 1 degree C and a massive increase in frozen methane being released from thawing permafrost. We are in the midst of reversible and accelerating climate change. Global fossil fuel emission are increasing year-by-year, not decreasing.
They have been making the claim that was going to happen for a long time. CO2 is not the problem, the sun is the primary driver (and the current magnetic excursion that has our magnetic field protection way down). You get so much ice melt and then you get a disruption of the ocean currents, an increase in cloud albido and a new ice age.
Of Course we are, but just like the Agricultural civilization and the Industrial (Now) civ. we are on ( if we don't go back to the stone age : Einstein " The fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones ) to the next one : Electronic Civilization...... what you ask ? Well its all about technology , and values...... to explain : Hunter Gatherers: Procreation and Survival with Hand Tools, game : Hide and Seek; Agricultural civ : King and Land values, domestication of animals, simple machines, game: Chess, Industrial civ. : Money and the Boss values, fossil fuels / engines, game MONOPOLY, next : Electronic Civ. values Society and Environment, tools AI / Robotics, etc game : Simulations........ we can enter a new era , but getting beyond the foundational mechanisms : 1. Domination by Force, replaced to Democracy by Consensus, and Inequality of Women, yes it is that big ( look up Bonobos female led, no murder , ever. in other words PEACE by sexuality rather that this era of War ( make love not war , literally ) , so with Universal Income and all the new tech: Renewables replacing fossil fuels ( 100%) and representations democracy ( rule by the rich still ) to Direct Democracy to electronic voting, with vertical greenhouses, at all scales, getting over the monopoly game money with Universal ( ending billionaires and billions in poverty) , we can get there, again , it is a major replacement of Climate / War and Economic collapse first , most likely, get ready , get self sufficient , get out of the cities, vote democrat, and learn to grow your food. Really , it is that bad see the real situation with Tipping Points ( Breaking Boundaries Netflix ) MIT limits to Growth, and Frontline Fed Reserve, Zeitgeist movies. see more : UniTown.US
The diminishing EROI for gas-oil production is also associated with consequential higher cumulation of environmental pollution - stark example Alberta's tar sands. This will generate higher rates of ill health & morbidity for those living in or around such mining areas.
Is it just me hearing a high-pitched noise over Mary's voice? Anyway a great podcast!
Always someone griping or complaining about something in these videos.
@@rdallas81lol pointing out that there might be an issue with the audio is hardly griping or complaining.
Yes there is! I had my ear buds in when I started listening to this and I had to take them out. I was confused when I didn’t see others talking about it in the comments. She needs to fix her audio because things like that can damage someone’s hearing.
He’s Australian.
He is smart, inspired, and handsome! Luke. I'm your father 🙂
Who's your daddy!
Can we just discuss reality and not have to constantly spin it? I'm sick to death of "optimism."
If you hate optimism you'll fit right in with this new generation of myopic pessimists.
Hmmm, haven't heard much of any optimism in last 4 years, just fears about the future. So I'm sick n tired of all the pessimism.
We could see the Roman Civilisation in terms of dictatorial control on freedoms back in spades where AI is owned by the major corporations.
THANK YOU .
If I had wings and I could flap them fast enough I could fly. No-brainer. Much of your guest's suggestions are little more than that. Book sales are everything though, eh?
Possibly, it's happened before.
A rise in Temps due to fissil fuels may end up being offset by the emissions of super volcanos that will drop global temperatures, reduce human population....over simplification, but you get it
Don't count on it. There aren't any supervolcanoes volunteering, and we don't have a way to trigger them.
After creating many wants, someday all will go back to simplicity.
I'm going to say "yes" for five hundred...
END IS SOON
Peak complexity theory … genius
" Use that bomb? "......well you have to take into account, like theGenerals and President did, the potential cost to Allied troops of an invasion to the islands of Japan which, they knew from their progression of recapture of the Pacific Islands, would cost thousands of Allied servicemen, and Japanese civilians as well, and destruction caused by Naval shelling and conventional bombing plus fanatical resistance by the locals.
When this was weighed up by the Allied Generals and the Pres, the Atomic bombs seemed the lesser of the two evils !
Looks like I've found a new researcher to follow! Thanks for the spotlighting and the great interview.
Yes of course it is, with global heating we will be gone within a few years what is hard is very few people are aware of it or want to accept it. The biggest thing is phytoplankton and krill are going extinct. We are experienced the hottest ocean in the history of humans on the planet😢
"The future is people", or is it not?
Uh, the future is… Soylent Green is people.
Which civilization?
Whose civilization?
James Hansen et al. says 4.8C +/- 1.2c (99% confidence) by century's end - things are worse than we realize - if he is right.
Your guest is very pretty.
Clark Kent thinks Inside The Box. Pretty good at that. Does limited liability drive climate imbalance? Would zero-point likewise? Can blocking-patents be criminalized? So many icebergs! So many tips!
Yes
Dr. Doom for President 2028!
He’s Australian and lives in England.
Come on. She said 1000 .
Common sense says if it costs more than it's worth, you can't make a profit.
Jeesh.
The 'simple' solution, as devised and promulgated by Marx Engels and Lenin, was ownership of the means of production by 'the State' as in a common holding like a co-operative, which works on a small scale for specific alligned individuals, but does not translate to the Macro scale as it becomes unwieldy to control, like the old Soviet examples.
Hence the free market; which gives individual operators the FREEDOM to contribute or deny their involvement according to their own selfish interests !
The uncivilized West might just do that.
I’ll admit, I didn’t watch past the 1 second mark. I hit for the clickbait title to answer with CELESTIAL INSIGHT, NO, ladies and gentlemen of EVERY RACE. Reincarnated Anu here, I AM, that’s me. I don’t care how bad my thirst for vengeance is, it won’t help anyone do anything, other than use THAT, to COMMUNICATE, like Ender Do. Enki, Raised me, I grew up with Enlil???? Cool beans, getting me straight, with FAMLIA help. Lots of ancient anger is stored up in Aegis RA, me, and I mean tons!!!! I’m Tiamat!!!! The God of War. Not threatening, I’m NOT “here” in Eden, or Armenti, to destroy anything PHYSICAL, only the false knowledge, the “veil” created by guilty chicken shits. A lot of You/Yew/Jew---same exact meaning in 3 different languages. 3 destroyed Universes due to “cern”, which doesn’t collide particles anymore. Only the excitement of particles, and for a “laymen” or Squire of thee Shire, using cold air to circulate up into warm or hot air, always allowing a way out, to avoid pressure and blivy. I only have a PHD-Public High School diploma, from High School III, just sayin. I know, the San Andres Fault, is a small portion about to subduct, like the Canadian did 28 million years ago, and the first little bit was 68 million. The Avians “tell me” via Telepathy. So do the Rex. Where are Wi an We, in Space???? Where are Wi an We in “TIME”???? Same day, different stuff??? Or same stuff different day, getting old withering away? Which “side” are Yew on???? That’s important. When are Wi an We??? What are Wi an We???? What were Wi an We???? Hu knows, and knowing is half the BATTLE, and BEETLES LOVE TA BATTLE!!! The WINGS EILL RATE, as THEY ALL TATTLE!!!! Diablo and Darius, ever heard of US???? Wi go Dutch!!!! Think about Arthur Morgan, Arthur Pendragon. Same dude???? That meat head from Huckleberry Ridge???? Do MARINES, just “die”???? Ever???? Does the NAME of OUR NATION MATTER???!! NO!!! It’s The Value of Our COLLECTIVE SPIRIT, that’s where VALUE IS!!!! Not in money or fancy toys!!!!! HOW MUCH DO YEW KNOW??!?!? The more Ya KNOW, the greater YER burden, the heavier the CROSS.
I don’t have to “PROVE” my identity, but if Yew use it to profit, ye sure as hell don’t want to cut Black Beard out, I’m not that kind of Pirate, I’m The Universes Warden!!! “Get it??”!! The “things” outside this bubble (laymen’s speak, lower Gothic) want Your flesh, and mine, dead, do not help “them”!!! I’m “that” god, Hu, Death, and I’ll be damned if it happens ON MY WATCH!!!! Get it??? Now, not tomorrow. I’ve noticed a 12 year off, and there’s a 2 year off, soon to be a five. This bs war, illegal as feck, is destroying “democracies” NOT CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLICS!!!! Two different REALMS!!!! Wi an We, do discriminate, but for the GOOD, not the “bad”. I throw myself into this, my FAMILY, I protect like a SAVAGE, as every PARENT, from every RACE, SHOULD!!! Including at school in education. Anyway, chin up, it’s KARMA. Work on every bodies KARMA, things get AWESOME!!!! Mr Franks, proceed. And Thank You for the help. Enki Always Respects The Help-EARTH. Wi an We didn’t build “earth” to destroy LIFE, it was meant to be a NATURAL SANCTUARY!!!! The Ark, has Always been a Space Ship, manifested of the remains of Tiamat, The Black Knight!!!! Just sayin.
Pay the SSP, so Wi can friggin retire buttheads!!!
👁️🦅☠️🐇🪶👽
Meza Weza Teza Toza, Tia, Gia, and Pia. Certain FATHERS, LOVE HARD, LIVE HARD, and REFUSE TO GIVE UP!!!
mass deprivation plus all the strong boys are dead[human sacrifices]. whats left is lucky bookworms..