Yeah, US is doing great... except for the upcoming GDP, unemployment and earnings revisions. Not to forget that positive retail trade numbers are *NOT* adjusted for inflation... Maybe Fed knows a bit more than saying at the presser...
Yes, Ramin has good clear way of presenting things. Although recently I've noticed he has some biases... Seemingly talking his book etc, not sure if intentional though.
Why do you believe that there is a soft landing when there has not been a soft landing post war once the yield curve has reverted? Recession incoming 90%
Pretty confident that a recession is already here but will be confirmed by 1st half of 2025. FED knows this and chose the 50 point rate cut instead of the market expected 25 point cut.
@@firefighterknight8387 How do you measure a Recession again ? (delay or lagging indicator) Volkswagen made MORE money in euro's while selling LESS cars in total/volume. The people are still working, but thanks to massive high-tech facility can run on reduce speeds. (We needed a pandemic to make container ships run on 30% speed) They still can be paid. But soon have to be fired because of these effects. There is a tipping point, you can't keep running totally inefficient. In Germany fire and hire people also cost money. It's all a big cost calculation you can do in simple managment software. So, Europe is in a recession right now. People will be fired. Plants will be modernised. And we are going to start HYPER EFFICIENT and will scale accordingly again. Hope your in a recession soon. Because when you kick the can down the road and don't get everything smooth working after a pandemic. Think you have to compete with me. And Asia. You do not need to drain the swamp. You need the economy to do it's thing. BS Companies need to go bust.
@@firefighterknight8387 Yes, Fed knows more than saying out loud. Powell even had the nerve to say that retail sales numbers show how economy is expanding.... but forgot to mention that retail sales number doesn't adjust for price increases and is thus actually declining when adjusted for inflation. Sudden 50 basis point cut AND drastic change in near future cut projections is quite telling.
I see no role for FED or BoE, just allow the market to set interest rates. If inflation targeting is required then that should be achieved by fiscal policymakers by changing consumption taxes.
Maybe a stupid question.... Is that soft landing denoted in $ USD DOLLARS ? And does it also look on the graph in Alpha Centauri Financial district as a soft landing. Or do they need the graph on a log scale to see it ?
The 10-yr UST, post-decision on the hourly, was quickly bought and then just as quickly, sold. Didn't make sense to me. Lower interest rate and bonds sold off. Also we have an election coming in less than 2 months, so some of this economic data is being skewed, in my view to favor the Biden/Harris administration and illustrate what a "great" job they are doing with the economy. Lastly, inflation coming to 2% is kind of a joke in the US, we are not seeing prices going lower not even close.
What we have to consider is that the Presidential election (as well as the House and senate) is just weeks away and the US economy will feature heavily in the choice that voters make. Any negative movements in the economy will benefit Donald Trump since a sizeable majority of voters believe that Trump is better than Harris on the economy (no reason for it except Harris has no proven experience).
![Would We Be Better Off Without Religion? - Christopher Hitchens [2007] ✝️ | Intelligence Squared](/img/n.gif)
As an American who watches your coverage of both US and UK central bank meetings I can say I'm just generally interested in what you have to say!
I would say that the UK has a coherent energy policy. We sell everything on the open market at the expense of the domestic consumer.
Romin - we desperately need an episode whereby Teddy does the commentary and gives you the treats.
Yeah, US is doing great... except for the upcoming GDP, unemployment and earnings revisions.
Not to forget that positive retail trade numbers are *NOT* adjusted for inflation...
Maybe Fed knows a bit more than saying at the presser...
"The first cut is the deepest!" Cat Stevens.
Good luck with the "official data" and the soft landing. Jeff Snider gives some good insight on this topic on his channel.
Today i became a fan of yours. Like your presentation style. Wishing you the best from Finland!
Yes, Ramin has good clear way of presenting things.
Although recently I've noticed he has some biases... Seemingly talking his book etc, not sure if intentional though.
Thank you! 😃 @a.r.4416
What a lovely dog he is ❤
Why do you believe that there is a soft landing when there has not been a soft landing post war once the yield curve has reverted? Recession incoming 90%
Pretty confident that a recession is already here but will be confirmed by 1st half of 2025. FED knows this and chose the 50 point rate cut instead of the market expected 25 point cut.
@@firefighterknight8387 How do you measure a Recession again ? (delay or lagging indicator)
Volkswagen made MORE money in euro's while selling LESS cars in total/volume.
The people are still working, but thanks to massive high-tech facility can run on reduce speeds. (We needed a pandemic to make container ships run on 30% speed)
They still can be paid. But soon have to be fired because of these effects. There is a tipping point, you can't keep running totally inefficient.
In Germany fire and hire people also cost money. It's all a big cost calculation you can do in simple managment software.
So, Europe is in a recession right now. People will be fired. Plants will be modernised. And we are going to start HYPER EFFICIENT and will scale accordingly again.
Hope your in a recession soon. Because when you kick the can down the road and don't get everything smooth working after a pandemic.
Think you have to compete with me. And Asia.
You do not need to drain the swamp. You need the economy to do it's thing.
BS Companies need to go bust.
Tomorrow, a year, 3 years?
@@firefighterknight8387 Yes, Fed knows more than saying out loud. Powell even had the nerve to say that retail sales numbers show how economy is expanding.... but forgot to mention that retail sales number doesn't adjust for price increases and is thus actually declining when adjusted for inflation.
Sudden 50 basis point cut AND drastic change in near future cut projections is quite telling.
@@edc1569 by end of next year but probably sooner imo. One can only have opinions.
I see no role for FED or BoE, just allow the market to set interest rates. If inflation targeting is required then that should be achieved by fiscal policymakers by changing consumption taxes.
If uk does not decrease interest rates- how will it affect gbp/usd exchange rates
Maybe a stupid question....
Is that soft landing denoted in $ USD DOLLARS ?
And does it also look on the graph in Alpha Centauri Financial district as a soft landing. Or do they need the graph on a log scale to see it ?
Soft landing, just waiting for the lag to catch up 😂
How much should I pay to have a question answered
The 10-yr UST, post-decision on the hourly, was quickly bought and then just as quickly, sold. Didn't make sense to me. Lower interest rate and bonds sold off. Also we have an election coming in less than 2 months, so some of this economic data is being skewed, in my view to favor the Biden/Harris administration and illustrate what a "great" job they are doing with the economy. Lastly, inflation coming to 2% is kind of a joke in the US, we are not seeing prices going lower not even close.
No inflation doesn’t mean prices go down. It means prices stay the same. 2020 prices are gone forever. The inflation happened and now here we are.
I'd be off for biltong 😆
What we have to consider is that the Presidential election (as well as the House and senate) is just weeks away and the US economy will feature heavily in the choice that voters make. Any negative movements in the economy will benefit Donald Trump since a sizeable majority of voters believe that Trump is better than Harris on the economy (no reason for it except Harris has no proven experience).
Polotical decision to help Democrats.
@@danydany3974 crash soon after election!
Wake me up when a law get through *both* houses. There is no politics. Try signing a law.