Gold and Silver are "outside the system" savings accounts for me and only buy on huge dips like we have seen recently. Buying Gold and Silver keeps me from spending money on silly and unnecessary purchases. Holding physical Gold and Silver allows me to quickly pull in emergency needs and sell at my LCS and walk away with cash when needed. Not looking for it to moon and get rich off the purchases
Gold is seen as a safe bet during economic ups and downs. But investing in stocks can be profitable too. Some people lose money because they don't understand how it works. So, it's wise to be careful. I suggest talking to a financial advisor who can help you figure out when to buy and sell.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Rebecca Noblett Roberts is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
How so? Generally, lower interest rates means companies can leverage cheaper rates for capital investment and lowering the cost of doing business. People without debt can leverage lower rates on an opportunity cost basis and invest in higher performing equities or just invest in higher performing equities.
We are a debt based economy that rewards debtors not savers. Historically the fed should look at saving rates (at record low) as a tool to tell them that intereest rates are too low.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE' is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Brooke Miller for helping me achieve this
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
What is not being considered will be t bill buyers - they won't buy them at lower rates. The auctions are going to have to go higher to get enough buyers to cover the amount needed for interest rollover and new deficit spending. Especially considering the large increases in inflation, which will be caused by lower fed funds rates. Target rate will have to be 7% to get enough buyers in the t bill actions to reach the needed amounts amount in sales.
Institutional buyers backed by the money printer and zero reserve are the buyers along with the carry trade also backed by money printer. There will always be buyers for US Treasuries as banks are being paid to buy them.
Never heard of you until just today, when the YT algorithm brought you to my attention. I respect anyone who has ROM #1 in a bag and is proud to display it. I remember that comic!
I paid 15% for a fixed rate mortgage in 1984...the people complaining about how high rates are now have no idea...when I got a 7% fixed rate in 1993 I was over the moon...when rates went down to 2.99% it seemed unreal...AND back in the day you had to come up with 20% down... houses were cheaper but so were wages..seems to me the easier we made it for people to get into debt the more debt they took on. I'd have thought when rates plummeted people would have spent less money on a house and made socking money away a priority..I was dreaming..far too many people won't do that and when they're old and struggling they blame the gov't and America saying 'it's awful how this country treats its elderly"...I guess they want a nanny state where they are taken care of like babies.
@@mattfiedler9939 YOU Are FOGETTING HOW MUCH LOWER SALARIES AND INCOME WERE IN 1984 SO YOU'RE arument doen't hold any water. AND for the record I was making a point, not presenting an argument..it's not up for debate b/c it's MY MY MY opinion that was stated.
The problem with boomer logic is that boomers all seem to be stuck in the past and look at today like its suppose to be 1984. You are also forgetting that in 1984 we could have bank money market accounts with interest rates above 9%. If I had that now my BANK interest alone would give me nearly $300k per year. My dad actually bought his house in nyc in 1984 for $66k at that 15%. I was just about to graduate and start my $30k job as a programmer. That house, I just happened to look up 2 months ago is now valued at $1.5M. My nephew who started his first job also as a software developer 3 years ago made $75k. I certainly hope you can extrapolate all that. Only a fool wouldn't want a 15% mortgage on $60k ($750/month mortgage) vs today's 6% 30 year mortgage on $1.5m($9,000/month). I make $160k now but need to make over $200k for that house of $1.5m if I had no savings.
Housing prices are to high. I blame that on people more concerned about monthly payments than the total price. And the salespeople who push that. When interest rates were high, housing was lower. The banks wouldn’t lose much money on a foreclosure. But they were making more in interest.
Lower interest rates may create some refinancing opportunities for buyers with higher rates depending on friction costs. This would benefit mortgage brokers with transaction fees and for some buyers. As an older worker already living in a retirement community with a 2.625% mortgage rate, I don't have any reason to move for financial reasons.
In the early 2000s when California real estate went crazy (turns out it was a predictor for the rest of the country) I come to realize it was impossible to save for a house because the prices were rising in much larger amounts than I could save. I calculated if I got a good raise every year for 10 years and save comparable % I would fall even further behind and would have to borrow a ridiculous amount. Thankfully I'm not a nut and went all in for the ridiculous American dream notion. I pivoted and invested all that savings in stocks. Retired at 50 and now travel all over the world in business class only. I still rent but I live in a very nice modern apt even though I'm not there often since I travel so much. But my financial life is very good and will be for the rest of my life.
Noticed this today, hours after your comment. My SNSXX dropped already below 5% (thought it might take a couple weeks given its holdings) but SWVXX is holding steady, it'll go down eventually I guess as the MMMF turns over to lower rate bonds, ect.
Recessions are a necessary part of capitalism . It's important for asset prices to come down instead of interest rates but the fed is never going to let that happen so get ready for inflation to really get going.
You make it sound like capitalism is different from other economic models. Market and economic reality happens to all normal human activity regardless of the name of the scheme behind the local economy.
My Husband is already panicking, so many questions! will the rate cut lead to inflation? I'm very worried about my $1million stock portfolio losing value. Do i move to 100% cash? What strategies should I be employing in my portfolio right now?
This is the what people that handle their portfolio themselves go through. I will advice you get yourself some professional advisor to help you redistribute assets in your portfolio.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds. At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case stock crash, Thanks to my advisor.
Why can’t I borrow money at the rate of a mortgage and not buy a house but instead invest in the market with a 80/20 portfolio? The return on equity would be way better than what people get from buying a house or real estate. Plus no maintenance, utilities, renters, increasing property taxes, or headache.This strategy would only work if you were able to borrow money at 5% or less I think.
The looming recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates have investors extremely concerned. I'm not sure what to do with my $600,000 portfolio yet. because we may not enter a recession, and even if the Fed is hawkish, interest rates may not be raised further.
True, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far
I love the calmness here. 50bps out the gate is a panic cut. The Fed knows something is coming, it is bad, and it is trying to get ahead of that. The market is trying to whistle past the graveyard, and will continue to do so until way too late like they do every single time.
Yep. The data is definitely skewed. Been seeing constant headlines of bankruptcy filings and layoffs in the business sector but "the economy is robust."
I’d like them to set the rates at or just above the inflation target. 🙏 And yeah, rates coming down are actually going to help inflation in the real estate market as folks stop restricting supply by holding onto those low rate mortgages. 👍
People will give up their low rate mortgages? Don’t assume everyone with a low rate mortgage wants to sell their home and buy a more expensive one. As retirees, we’re in our for-the-rest-of-our-lives home, and planning never to move again. We refinanced when mortgage rates dropped, and took out extra cash to put into VTI. The mortgage interest rate is 2.625%, for a 30 year fixed, and the monthly payment is extremely low. With the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, it’s essentially free money. It won’t be paid off before we die, but we don’t care.
@@suzanneemerson2625 Agreed. Folks want to keep their low rate mortgages. And unless they are forced to move, they are tending to sit on those mortgages which is restricting the housing supply. Once rates come down again, more folks will be willing to sell and this will increase availability of housing and decrease supply related inflation. And of course, those of us in our forever homes aren’t looking to sell, but that’s not the problem right now. It’s all those folks that might want to move, but just can’t afford to give up those low rates. 👍 I hope rates can return to lower levels asap to help everyone. 🙏
Inflation is down close to nominal rate of 2%, that which is considered normal in a good economy. To keep rates at high levels was no longer justified and presented a drag on the economy. Of course, some people want bad economic news just to boost their election chances
I enjoyed the video. Most of my cash is in Fidelity SPRXX. Maybe, you could make a short video telling us specific instruments to buy now. I was in an intermdiate bond fund that was stagnant for over a year I think. And, I generally lose money in bond funds that are often labelled as low risk!
Gold is a store of value. It doesn’t produce anything, it doesn’t earn anything, etc. However, as fiat currencies are manipulated with out of control inflation gold has been doing very well, and I believe will continue to do so.
They've been dropping recently, fed is a laggard. I've been cd laddering for a few years now and watching the rates change. It wasn't long ago where I could get 5.25-5.5% on a 1 year, now it's more like 4.3-4.4%.
@@nancyli6789 t bills and bonds are backed directly by the federal government, while CDs are covered by fdic - which is also backed by the federal government.
I'm endlessly amused at how some people think current mortgage rates are high. I remember my friend Gary celebrating that he was able to get a 9% mortgage rate in 1975. I was thrilled to get an 11% mortgage rate in 1979 but the only way I was able to do that was with a VA loan. By the time we bought another house in 1982, prevailing mortgage rates were around 18%. I got a "buy down" rate of 13.5% (adjustible) which would have risen to 18% over a 4-year period if I hadn't been able to refinance at a fixed rate before it adjusted upward to 18%. People have gotten spoiled by low rates.
You bring up real estate. That's the main reason why i wish the Fed wouldn't lower rates. We were just starting to see prices begin to drop. Shoot, even that drop was only like 1 percent. Back to the days of bidding wars! Ugh.
Yes, totally agree we need to keep pressure on home prices to drive them back down until they intersect the price appreciation trend line. I'll continue to be on the real estate sideline either waiting for a gradual correction or watch people jump in to early raising prices higher leading to an inevitable and abrupt correction. I also wish people would stop using the housing shortage story. We are not short on overall housing volume. We are short within various price strata, specifically middle income affordability strata. I'm also waiting for the other shoe to drop on NAR. I just did some research on the consumer impacts of the realtor commissions being impedded into the home sales price (drives additional costs such as mortgage interest, property tax, insurance rates and fees). Using a $650k sales price w/o commission, the cost to the buyer is an additional +$55 (not including opportunity loss cost which could be another +$50k based on how its invested) and the cost to the buyer as a future seller is ~$175k (lost profits). All of this due to a freaking $39k (6%) realtor commission. Time to completely separate the realtor fees and base mortgages and tax on the home only.
Why should houses drop and everything else - food, consumer goods, services, wages - rise? It's a supply and demand. We are still 8 million houses short due to our steady growth. My neighborhood 30 years ago was a 5/10 price-wise. Since then homes have been expanded, some demolished and rebuilt larger, etc and it's approaching the 9/10 mark (all over a million). Our neighbors are currently adding 1,800 sq ft (just had 4th child) on their 2,800 sq foot home. It's also impossible to divorce the community from price. We have an extremely low crime rate, great schools and a sense of civic pride - all tend to drive up home appeal and prices.
@@smb-zf9bdI'm not sure why you're asking this question. No one mentioned other purchases rising or falling. The fact is everything is outpacing wages, which is a problem. People require housing and don't have the ability to cross shop like they do with foods and consumer goods. Either way, you're conflating a lot of topics here and reading into things. Homeownership is an entirely different animal from all the items you listed.
It's time in the market. I lost money during dot come bust and 2008 housing bubble. I just retired and moved money into money market. Since I'm not working, I can't afford another bust. I think the Fed knows something is coming....
The Fed Funds Rate is the inflation rate. Just keep buying S&P, we are going higher because of fiscal policy, not anything about what the Fed does 🤷♂️
I’m really kind of not sure of the direction to go as to new investing for future with talk of cash going away. What will replace cash and how to invest moving forward
I would love for someone to explain exactly why TLT went down in price after the rate cut. I know the rate cuts are for short term but no idea why the rate cut negatively affected long term bonds.
One theory…..a rate cut of this size is indicative of lower inflation expectations and slowing economic growth. Both of these scenarios tend to put downward pressure on long tern interest rates.
I wasn't surprised at all at the 50 basis point drop considering the history of the Fed, specifically how they responded in 2019/2020 lowering the rates by 2.25%. This was over an 8-month period.
Real estate would move again if the Feds raised the home capital gains limits (250k single/500k for married). What are your thoughts and why isn’t anyone talking about adjusting these limits?
I retired in August 2023 and put the majority of my investment portfolio and a five-year multi year guaranteed to annuity or MYGA paying 5.25% at that time which I use the interest as income for expenses and at the end of five years I get all my principal back and the other thing I did was buy a five year CD that pays 5.05% with the same strategy Retirement is all about income, plain, and simple Risking your money in the market does not make sense to me in retirement My biggest dilemma is where to invest in 2029 when my investments expire
interest rates on savings will drop immediately, credit cards will drop rates in a couple years. yet people have to understand that 0 to 2 percent federal funds rate is not the norm
Move into some decent bank-related stock. Morgan Stanley (MS) is one I like and own. Make a basket of several different ones, or you can buy someting like XLF if individual stock picking isn’t your thing.
It had turned into an investment property and the refi terms were never that favorable compared to a fixed or the ARM at that time. In hindsight maybe I should have done that, but also the principal balance was not super huge and figured we could pay it down if needed. Will be paid off in a couple of years now instead of 12
To provide my perspective on your thought on where the rate needs to go, I have a 2.875 on a fifteen year and am 5 years away from paying off, maturity date is 2035. I think it's time.
Hi Rob are you concerned at all after a rate cut of .50 That will be going into a recession historically that’s what the data shows. What do you think?
I bought a bunch of JP Morgan CDs over the past year at rates of 5.3 or higher. They are “calling” them back left and right. Oh well, It was good while it lasted.
Rob, seems I've heard you say good things about using the Vanguard BNB for the Bond side of the allocation but it looks terrible to me. 3-years is -2.11% 5-years is -.05% and for the 10-year only 1.62% Am I missing something. Thanks, really appreciate you!
If you take out 2021-2022 BND and VBTLX have been doing great. That period was when the bond yields pivoted long-term from falling to rising. Going forward, it is a great way to protect your portfolio using a 60/40 or 70/30 mix.
@@ThePianoMan1953 Since you feel that way, you can go 50/50 stocks and bonds by buying 50% VWINX (40/60 fund) and 50% VWENX (60/40 fund). Then, at the end of each year, rebalance so that you lock in your gains (which ever performed best: stocks or bonds). Another option is to buy the conservative VWINX (40/60 fund) and increase exposure to 50/50 or 60/40 or 70/30 depending on how much the stock market pulls back.
Considering the current market uncertainty, it seems prudent to invest in gold or a gold ETF. I'm thinking of allocating over $300k for retirement purposes. While the potential for short-term gains in a bullish market is appealing, I recognize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment strategy.
Gold is seen as a safe bet during economic ups and downs. But investing in it can be tricky. Some people lose money because they don't understand how it works. So, it's wise to be careful. I suggest talking to a financial advisor who can help you figure out when to buy and sell.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do you consider anyone worthy of recommendations? I have about 100k to test the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount... Thanks
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Michelle Litwinsky who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I've come across a lot of recommendations but this one stands out. Marisa Michelle Litwinsky" resume is pretty sophisticated, and shows she was active during the last bear market, I also emailed her. Thanks for the info!
This is my first year investing, I only have $3,000 in my portfolio not including my home. If the market is going to crash and enter a depression, I hope it happens now and not when I actually have money 😭
I think the dissenting vote(s) are based on core inflation still being high and persistent. Powell's comment on a higher neutral rate gives a nod to the Fed's acknowledgement that core inflation is going to remain persistently higher at an established higher neutral. I agree with your assessment the Fed is worried about recession, which led to the 50 basis point cut. I think the Fed sees the looming problem of mass layoffs. Higher minimum wage policies are finally seriously impacting earnings and all the free money to bolster green policies are drying up. The Big 3 and the dealerships are in serious trouble and facing a strike (although I believe a certain party is going to quid pro quo promises to avert a strike this year like it did with hollywood and certain media companies like Disney), Boeing is facing a strike, and tech industry has seen a progressively higher level of layoff announcements. I don't think people realize the financial mess the Big 3 and the dealerships are in. The Big 3 have continued to pump out cars to avert layoffs even though their dealerships still have three model years worth of inventory that they cannot move. EV industry is hugely upside down and no amount of free money to incentive adoption is going to reverse the over 50% negative equity in them. So, I think the Fed sees it has a minimum of six months to establish rate cuts to mitigate ahead of an inevitable spike in layoffs post-election. I think the Fed is going to have to do another 50 basis point cut, if not higher, to mitigate high post-elelection layoffs and employment squeeze.
@@Username_CC_ Not sure your point. Core inflation is over 3%. The Fed has been using the word "recalibration," which is in line with Powell's comment on higher neutral rate. Basically, the Fed is recalibrating its policy to what it believes is a higher new normal. As Rob mentioned, I agree that the Fed is more concerned about a recession and not inflation. The recalibration of policy to a higher new normal and not the higher transitory all point to this. The Fed is looking at policies which are inherintly leading to a higher neutral rate like $20/hr minimum wage, green policies supported by large deficit stimulous, etc. The current lower unemployment is the only thing transitory, and the Fed is seeing strong indications the job market will shrink and reverse. The more problematic scenario is stagflation.
Hi @rob can you provide some thoughts on this scenario. A person's portfolio interest and dividends, plus SS covers all expenses. Does this mean the bucket approach isn't relevant for this person? What about asset allocation? Can the person be very conservative? Dividend and interest payout is less than 3% of portfolio size.
Are I bonds a definite no now?? At least buying before Nov guarantees a fixed rate portion for the life of the bond that at least gives it a foundation
thankfully for me no change is warranted. Even if rates go down to 3% on short term/liquid/cash accounts I'm good. I'll start looking for alternatives if they go below that at some point, but I'm good for at least 4 years.
Portfolio construction has different considerations for people in a variety of financial situations. The market goes up, on average, 7 out of 10 years. No “being careful” will change that. If you’re invested in stocks, you are going to lose sometimes. If you’re going to need to withdraw money during those down years, you might want to have your withdrawal needs safe in cash equivalents, and not take risk with it. If you’re young and working, with low fixed expenses and stable income to cover them, you can put all your investment money into stocks. Over time, you will make money. Not a good idea to do that if you’re retired and withdrawing from your holdings to pay your living expenses because you no longer have work income. Appropriate risk levels change through life.
Because you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket (equities), stocks don't endlessly just go up, there are downturns, investing is about not losing money as much about making money, fixed income is your defence, if you have no defensive position you are at great risk
Usually there is a major downturn in stocks during the rate cutting cycle. Don't believe me, put up a chart of the s&p next to a chart of the fed funds rate. In some of the downturns, the high wasn't reached for a decade or more. That's why you don't want all your money in stocks.
You make another assumption that govt inflation numbers are what they say they are, no way! Inflation is riding a lot higher that what we are being told. Just go to any store you shop at regularly and scan items you bought a month or year ago and see how much prices have gone up. A lot more than just 3 or 4 percent
Interesting and it sounds like you are conservatively invested. However, my view on the economy is significantly different. I believe a 50 basis point move by the Fed is a big red flag especially this far into the election cycle and was purely political. The rate that the federal government has been pouring money into the economy without any return in goods and service tells me that inflation is a long way from being under control. Additionally, the housing market is feeling more than just mortgage rates, the increased cost of living in all sectors, including housing, leaves little room for "moving up." This is also reflected in the auto market. There is hardly a day that goes by where a major business chain closing or corporation having lay-offs in not in the news.
I am awfully late in investing at 33 with just about $80,000 in savings as i have never invested in the stock market. I’m worried about missing out on compound interest and want to make smart choices for my future. If I invest aggressively, can I still retire with at least $1 million by age 65?
I had cancer in my 40s and luckily survived. Up till then I had good investment results but nobody taught me so I made a lot of mistakes but valuable mistakes. At 43 I had 350k in investments. After cancer I invested super aggressively because I really didn't care about money after my cancer. 10 years later my portfolio in stocks was nearly $3 million. I'm in tech so I know which companies are valuable and I invested heavily in those. I didn't buy dumb stocks like companies I've never heard of or penny stocks. My question to all investors is would you invest $10k in Microsoft for $400/share or $10k in a startup for $5/share. If you are thinking in any way those microsoft shares are too expensive then you SHOULD NOT invest aggressively because you haven't learned stock logic and your financial emotions will sabotage your portfolio.
I love the Wellesley Fund and hold a lot of it in my portfolio, but it's not a substitute for cash (case in point -- 2022 was an exceptionally tough year for VWINX/VWIAX).
The economy is NOT doing well. The job market is horrible, as are the following sectors: gas, food, retail, utilities, automotive, homes, rentals, and all forms of mandatory insurance consumers are urged or forced to buy. Inflation is through the roof. People are struggling! Also hurting working consumers, are yearly salaries not keeping up with the drastic increase with all goods and services.
![ปฏิเสธไม่ไหว (Crush on you) - LIPTA feat. No One Else [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/NBw1jF342vw/mqdefault.jpg)
Gold and Silver are "outside the system" savings accounts for me and only buy on huge dips like we have seen recently. Buying Gold and Silver keeps me from spending money on silly and unnecessary purchases. Holding physical Gold and Silver allows me to quickly pull in emergency needs and sell at my LCS and walk away with cash when needed. Not looking for it to moon and get rich off the purchases
Gold is seen as a safe bet during economic ups and downs. But investing in stocks can be profitable too. Some people lose money because they don't understand how it works. So, it's wise to be careful. I suggest talking to a financial advisor who can help you figure out when to buy and sell.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
kindly provide me with the information of your advisor as I am currently in desperate need of one?
Rebecca Noblett Roberts is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you
Lower interest rates suck for the person who has no debts. 😞
How so? Generally, lower interest rates means companies can leverage cheaper rates for capital investment and lowering the cost of doing business. People without debt can leverage lower rates on an opportunity cost basis and invest in higher performing equities or just invest in higher performing equities.
Interest rates on savings and CD's go down.
@@hanwagu9967 more like lower rates means companies can “fake grow” by doing stock buybacks.
@@BadPhD777that’s the purpose. They want you to either spend it or invest it in more productive places like in a business or in stocks and assets.
We are a debt based economy that rewards debtors not savers. Historically the fed should look at saving rates (at record low) as a tool to tell them that intereest rates are too low.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Yes true, I have been in touch with a brokerage Advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE' is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I searched for her full name online, found her page, and sent an email to schedule a meeting. Hopefully, she responds soon. Thank you
If rates go down to zero again, I'm borrowing a billion bucks.
I Hit 110k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started last month 2024. Financial education is indeed required for more than 70% of the society in the country as very few are literate on the subject. thanks to Brooke Miller for helping me achieve this
She is my family's personal broker and also a personal broker in many families I'm United States, she's a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in United states
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received $5500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommended Brooke Miller, I met her at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I just withdrew my profits a week ago, To be honest it was an amazing feeling when the profits hits my wallet I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills
What is not being considered will be t bill buyers - they won't buy them at lower rates. The auctions are going to have to go higher to get enough buyers to cover the amount needed for interest rollover and new deficit spending. Especially considering the large increases in inflation, which will be caused by lower fed funds rates. Target rate will have to be 7% to get enough buyers in the t bill actions to reach the needed amounts amount in sales.
Institutional buyers backed by the money printer and zero reserve are the buyers along with the carry trade also backed by money printer.
There will always be buyers for US Treasuries as banks are being paid to buy them.
Never heard of you until just today, when the YT algorithm brought you to my attention. I respect anyone who has ROM #1 in a bag and is proud to display it. I remember that comic!
SPAXX should be still good. it doesn't lower by that much for our cash position. it should be still over 4.5%
This morning it was 4.91%
That's fidelity?
How often does SPAXX update accounts with the interest? Monthly?
@@MichaelBouchey It pays monthly. It's a seven day moving average, I believe for their rate adjustment.
@@gerardmichael8523 It is Fidelity.
I paid 15% for a fixed rate mortgage in 1984...the people complaining about how high rates are now have no idea...when I got a 7% fixed rate in 1993 I was over the moon...when rates went down to 2.99% it seemed unreal...AND back in the day you had to come up with 20% down... houses were cheaper but so were wages..seems to me the easier we made it for people to get into debt the more debt they took on. I'd have thought when rates plummeted people would have spent less money on a house and made socking money away a priority..I was dreaming..far too many people won't do that and when they're old and struggling they blame the gov't and America saying 'it's awful how this country treats its elderly"...I guess they want a nanny state where they are taken care of like babies.
You’re forgetting how much more affordable a house was in 1984 so your argument really holds no water…
@@mattfiedler9939 YOU Are FOGETTING HOW MUCH LOWER SALARIES AND INCOME WERE IN 1984 SO YOU'RE arument doen't hold any water. AND for the record I was making a point, not presenting an argument..it's not up for debate b/c it's MY MY MY opinion that was stated.
@@mattfiedler9939you are forgetting that everything is relative....incomes were much lower also but we didnt have access to near 0% interest rates
The problem with boomer logic is that boomers all seem to be stuck in the past and look at today like its suppose to be 1984. You are also forgetting that in 1984 we could have bank money market accounts with interest rates above 9%. If I had that now my BANK interest alone would give me nearly $300k per year. My dad actually bought his house in nyc in 1984 for $66k at that 15%. I was just about to graduate and start my $30k job as a programmer. That house, I just happened to look up 2 months ago is now valued at $1.5M. My nephew who started his first job also as a software developer 3 years ago made $75k. I certainly hope you can extrapolate all that. Only a fool wouldn't want a 15% mortgage on $60k ($750/month mortgage) vs today's 6% 30 year mortgage on $1.5m($9,000/month). I make $160k now but need to make over $200k for that house of $1.5m if I had no savings.
Housing prices are to high. I blame that on people more concerned about monthly payments than the total price. And the salespeople who push that. When interest rates were high, housing was lower. The banks wouldn’t lose much money on a foreclosure. But they were making more in interest.
Lower interest rates may create some refinancing opportunities for buyers with higher rates depending on friction costs. This would benefit mortgage brokers with transaction fees and for some buyers. As an older worker already living in a retirement community with a 2.625% mortgage rate, I don't have any reason to move for financial reasons.
There are a lot of people in the same boat with you. Not a terrible place to be. Good for you!
What happened to people saving money till they could afford to buy something? Higher interest rates is not a bad thing.
It depends. You don't want them too high since people will be scared to invest in new business ideas
In the early 2000s when California real estate went crazy (turns out it was a predictor for the rest of the country) I come to realize it was impossible to save for a house because the prices were rising in much larger amounts than I could save. I calculated if I got a good raise every year for 10 years and save comparable % I would fall even further behind and would have to borrow a ridiculous amount. Thankfully I'm not a nut and went all in for the ridiculous American dream notion. I pivoted and invested all that savings in stocks. Retired at 50 and now travel all over the world in business class only. I still rent but I live in a very nice modern apt even though I'm not there often since I travel so much. But my financial life is very good and will be for the rest of my life.
Maybe if prime wasn't at zero for a decade real estate wouldn't have become so expensive. That was a really dumb move!
Yeah, if only 2008 and a world pandemic had not happened....
One of the drawbacks of capitalism.
@@rayreyes8497huh? I musta missed that
Obama
@@t3fLoN77 he saved the show after your hero tanked the economy in 2008 and 09
SWVXX is still over 5% for now. Thank you for your videos!
Correct.. with a. .35% expense ratio/fee
Noticed this today, hours after your comment. My SNSXX dropped already below 5% (thought it might take a couple weeks given its holdings) but SWVXX is holding steady, it'll go down eventually I guess as the MMMF turns over to lower rate bonds, ect.
Recessions are a necessary part of capitalism . It's important for asset prices to come down instead of interest rates but the fed is never going to let that happen so get ready for inflation to really get going.
You make it sound like capitalism is different from other economic models. Market and economic reality happens to all normal human activity regardless of the name of the scheme behind the local economy.
My Husband is already panicking, so many questions! will the rate cut lead to inflation? I'm very worried about my $1million stock portfolio losing value. Do i move to 100% cash? What strategies should I be employing in my portfolio right now?
This is the what people that handle their portfolio themselves go through. I will advice you get yourself some professional advisor to help you redistribute assets in your portfolio.
I've been through the 'bonds are beating stocks' periods since the 90s with no bonds and with all aggressive stock mutual funds.
At 66, my IRA and cash accounts are far more than I expected for my retirement. I can easily handle a worst-case stock crash, Thanks to my advisor.
Rob, when you say you are in Itermediate Bonds do you mean individual Bonds or BND?
I'm not doing anything different either, Rob. As always a nice presentation!
Why can’t I borrow money at the rate of a mortgage and not buy a house but instead invest in the market with a 80/20 portfolio? The return on equity would be way better than what people get from buying a house or real estate. Plus no maintenance, utilities, renters, increasing property taxes, or headache.This strategy would only work if you were able to borrow money at 5% or less I think.
The looming recession and the Fed's rhetoric of raising interest rates have investors extremely concerned. I'm not sure what to do with my $600,000 portfolio yet. because we may not enter a recession, and even if the Fed is hawkish, interest rates may not be raised further.
Everyone is uneasy due to the continuous wars in the Middle East. To get assistance with your portfolio, you ought to speak with an FA.
True, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far
I love the calmness here. 50bps out the gate is a panic cut. The Fed knows something is coming, it is bad, and it is trying to get ahead of that. The market is trying to whistle past the graveyard, and will continue to do so until way too late like they do every single time.
Truth
Yep. The data is definitely skewed. Been seeing constant headlines of bankruptcy filings and layoffs in the business sector but "the economy is robust."
The fed caused this bullshit purposely lmao they are the cause and cute
Just temporary to help Democrats in the November elections.
@@dorothymartin8557If they were trying to help Democrats they wouldn't have raised rates *11 times* during Biden's term.
I’d like them to set the rates at or just above the inflation target. 🙏
And yeah, rates coming down are actually going to help inflation in the real estate market as folks stop restricting supply by holding onto those low rate mortgages. 👍
People will give up their low rate mortgages? Don’t assume everyone with a low rate mortgage wants to sell their home and buy a more expensive one. As retirees, we’re in our for-the-rest-of-our-lives home, and planning never to move again. We refinanced when mortgage rates dropped, and took out extra cash to put into VTI. The mortgage interest rate is 2.625%, for a 30 year fixed, and the monthly payment is extremely low. With the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, it’s essentially free money. It won’t be paid off before we die, but we don’t care.
@@suzanneemerson2625 Agreed. Folks want to keep their low rate mortgages. And unless they are forced to move, they are tending to sit on those mortgages which is restricting the housing supply.
Once rates come down again, more folks will be willing to sell and this will increase availability of housing and decrease supply related inflation.
And of course, those of us in our forever homes aren’t looking to sell, but that’s not the problem right now. It’s all those folks that might want to move, but just can’t afford to give up those low rates. 👍
I hope rates can return to lower levels asap to help everyone. 🙏
The Fed has caved to politics. No way is inflation low enough to justify a cut.
Yep. Only done temporarily to help Democrats get elected in November.
Inflation is down close to nominal rate of 2%, that which is considered normal in a good economy. To keep rates at high levels was no longer justified and presented a drag on the economy. Of course, some people want bad economic news just to boost their election chances
Baseless. 12 governors, 12 votes. Majority Democrat? Really?
I enjoyed the video. Most of my cash is in Fidelity SPRXX. Maybe, you could make a short video telling us specific instruments to buy now. I was in an intermdiate bond fund that was stagnant for over a year I think. And, I generally lose money in bond funds that are often labelled as low risk!
I’m happy to see no one talking about precious metals as an investment.
why?
@@allenanthony2651 It says to me that even with new all time highs that we are a LONG way from public recognition and the next bubble top.
Gold is a store of value. It doesn’t produce anything, it doesn’t earn anything, etc. However, as fiat currencies are manipulated with out of control inflation gold has been doing very well, and I believe will continue to do so.
Agreed, so many go into promoting gold after a brief put- on analysis.
@@JoeGiz64 Right if it makes up 5% of your portfolio and you've been buying it since $300 per ounce. It seems like a reasonable hedge.
Bought 4 CDs to lock in an interest rate. Savings and MM rates will start dropping.
They've been dropping recently, fed is a laggard. I've been cd laddering for a few years now and watching the rates change. It wasn't long ago where I could get 5.25-5.5% on a 1 year, now it's more like 4.3-4.4%.
Yes... I did too 3.8% for 5 years.
Treasury bills/bonds may be a better option compared to cds.
Cds are FDIC. T-bills and Bonds are not FDIC. Becareful where you invest the money nowadays!
@@nancyli6789 t bills and bonds are backed directly by the federal government, while CDs are covered by fdic - which is also backed by the federal government.
Same as always, this small rate change is not a game changer
I'll be paying close attention to the market mortgage rates; mine is 6.375%, and I would like to get that a lot lower
I'm endlessly amused at how some people think current mortgage rates are high. I remember my friend Gary celebrating that he was able to get a 9% mortgage rate in 1975. I was thrilled to get an 11% mortgage rate in 1979 but the only way I was able to do that was with a VA loan. By the time we bought another house in 1982, prevailing mortgage rates were around 18%. I got a "buy down" rate of 13.5% (adjustible) which would have risen to 18% over a 4-year period if I hadn't been able to refinance at a fixed rate before it adjusted upward to 18%. People have gotten spoiled by low rates.
You bring up real estate. That's the main reason why i wish the Fed wouldn't lower rates. We were just starting to see prices begin to drop. Shoot, even that drop was only like 1 percent. Back to the days of bidding wars! Ugh.
Yes, totally agree we need to keep pressure on home prices to drive them back down until they intersect the price appreciation trend line. I'll continue to be on the real estate sideline either waiting for a gradual correction or watch people jump in to early raising prices higher leading to an inevitable and abrupt correction. I also wish people would stop using the housing shortage story. We are not short on overall housing volume. We are short within various price strata, specifically middle income affordability strata. I'm also waiting for the other shoe to drop on NAR. I just did some research on the consumer impacts of the realtor commissions being impedded into the home sales price (drives additional costs such as mortgage interest, property tax, insurance rates and fees). Using a $650k sales price w/o commission, the cost to the buyer is an additional +$55 (not including opportunity loss cost which could be another +$50k based on how its invested) and the cost to the buyer as a future seller is ~$175k (lost profits). All of this due to a freaking $39k (6%) realtor commission. Time to completely separate the realtor fees and base mortgages and tax on the home only.
We have had some good property listings getting stale in my neighborhood, both went contingent today lol
Low inventory, due to capital gains tax. When will they pass the bill to raise exemption to 1M and solve the problem?
Why should houses drop and everything else - food, consumer goods, services, wages - rise? It's a supply and demand. We are still 8 million houses short due to our steady growth. My neighborhood 30 years ago was a 5/10 price-wise. Since then homes have been expanded, some demolished and rebuilt larger, etc and it's approaching the 9/10 mark (all over a million). Our neighbors are currently adding 1,800 sq ft (just had 4th child) on their 2,800 sq foot home. It's also impossible to divorce the community from price. We have an extremely low crime rate, great schools and a sense of civic pride - all tend to drive up home appeal and prices.
@@smb-zf9bdI'm not sure why you're asking this question. No one mentioned other purchases rising or falling. The fact is everything is outpacing wages, which is a problem. People require housing and don't have the ability to cross shop like they do with foods and consumer goods. Either way, you're conflating a lot of topics here and reading into things. Homeownership is an entirely different animal from all the items you listed.
Rates have to fall to ~2.5% before I sell.
Nothing beats stocks over the long term
Index and chill for life
Yeah stocks in 1929 took until 1954 to return to same price..... Japan similar. Insider selling at highest level ever, but what would they know.
@@bradjohnson233 what other option was better at the time then?
And since 100yrs ago so for 1 century stocks beat everything
It's time in the market. I lost money during dot come bust and 2008 housing bubble. I just retired and moved money into money market. Since I'm not working, I can't afford another bust. I think the Fed knows something is coming....
@@travisadams4470 wtf r u talking about?
Wealth folks are not in stocks... !
Probably better long term in tax free income.
Interactive Brokers offers relatively high interest rates for cash accounts.
The Fed Funds Rate is the inflation rate. Just keep buying S&P, we are going higher because of fiscal policy, not anything about what the Fed does 🤷♂️
I’m really kind of not sure of the direction to go as to new investing for future with talk of cash going away. What will replace cash and how to invest moving forward
I ponder the money experts who were also feeling fine about the Fed and equities in the late 1920's.
Ok now I definitely know I see the Power Broker back there, because I also see all four LBJ books. Salute to a fellow Caro enjoyer.
What are intermediate bonds?
I would love for someone to explain exactly why TLT went down in price after the rate cut. I know the rate cuts are for short term but no idea why the rate cut negatively affected long term bonds.
Long term bonds are complex and don’t always do what you’d expect.
One theory…..a rate cut of this size is indicative of lower inflation expectations and slowing economic growth. Both of these scenarios tend to put downward pressure on long tern interest rates.
The market has already priced in a 50 bp cut, so there wasn't much left in the tank when the announcement was made
Why is 2021 missing from the prime rate chart?
Sounds like you're getting over a cold. Hope you feel better and thanks for the financial guidance on your channel! O-H... !!!
I think his new sound set up makes his voice sound lower and not as clear so it sounds like he is getting over a cold :)
Hardly a hawk. Remember it was transitory he said
I wasn't surprised at all at the 50 basis point drop considering the history of the Fed, specifically how they responded in 2019/2020 lowering the rates by 2.25%. This was over an 8-month period.
Real estate would move again if the Feds raised the home capital gains limits (250k single/500k for married). What are your thoughts and why isn’t anyone talking about adjusting these limits?
Totally agree. Its a do-nothing period...
Sometimes I think the Fed is merely guessing...
CLO debt ETFs may also be an option, depending on your risk appetite and how credit spreads move.
I retired in August 2023 and put the majority of my investment portfolio and a five-year multi year guaranteed to annuity or MYGA paying 5.25% at that time which I use the interest as income for expenses and at the end of five years I get all my principal back and the other thing I did was buy a five year CD that pays 5.05% with the same strategy
Retirement is all about income, plain, and simple
Risking your money in the market does not make sense to me in retirement
My biggest dilemma is where to invest in 2029 when my investments expire
Keeping cash where I kept it 2 weeks ago, my money market account. I’m ok with 4.75% 🤷♂️
Pi Bank is also 5.5% as of this weekend. Poppy is a better bank.
interest rates on savings will drop immediately, credit cards will drop rates in a couple years. yet people have to understand that 0 to 2 percent federal funds rate is not the norm
Move into some decent bank-related stock. Morgan Stanley (MS) is one I like and own. Make a basket of several different ones, or you can buy someting like XLF if individual stock picking isn’t your thing.
Thank you Rob for the citation in FOMC website!
We've e started aggressively paying down the remainder of a 2005 ARM mortgage.
Curious as to why you didn't refinance to a fixed rate during the super low rates period?
It had turned into an investment property and the refi terms were never that favorable compared to a fixed or the ARM at that time. In hindsight maybe I should have done that, but also the principal balance was not super huge and figured we could pay it down if needed. Will be paid off in a couple of years now instead of 12
@gbski43 Ok thanks.
fidelity munipal fund only paying out 2.32 return......ugh
Treasury bills are paying almost 4.7%+%. Why would anybody be in a fixed rate investment at 2.32%?
To provide my perspective on your thought on where the rate needs to go, I have a 2.875 on a fifteen year and am 5 years away from paying off, maturity date is 2035. I think it's time.
Hi Rob are you concerned at all after a rate cut of .50 That will be going into a recession historically that’s what the data shows. What do you think?
Rob, lobby for corporations to offer mortgages. The Fed is a monopoly.
I bought a bunch of JP Morgan CDs over the past year at rates of 5.3 or higher. They are “calling” them back left and right. Oh well, It was good while it lasted.
Appreciate your channel. Thank you.
Rob, seems I've heard you say good things about using the Vanguard BNB for the Bond side of the allocation but it looks terrible to me. 3-years is -2.11% 5-years is -.05% and for the 10-year only 1.62% Am I missing something. Thanks, really appreciate you!
Vbtlx has been poor for awhile
@@dougspry3101 VBIAX looks good for a balanced moderate retirement fund.
If you take out 2021-2022 BND and VBTLX have been doing great. That period was when the bond yields pivoted long-term from falling to rising. Going forward, it is a great way to protect your portfolio using a 60/40 or 70/30 mix.
Bond funds performed poorly since late 22 because they face mark to market losses when interest rates went up.
@@ThePianoMan1953 Since you feel that way, you can go 50/50 stocks and bonds by buying 50% VWINX (40/60 fund) and 50% VWENX (60/40 fund). Then, at the end of each year, rebalance so that you lock in your gains (which ever performed best: stocks or bonds).
Another option is to buy the conservative VWINX (40/60 fund) and increase exposure to 50/50 or 60/40 or 70/30 depending on how much the stock market pulls back.
Lock in on those CD's!
Most over six months are callable.
i switched my accounts over to fdic insured deposit sweeps. i'm taking no risks. im not near retirement so it doesn't matter as much for me
Considering the current market uncertainty, it seems prudent to invest in gold or a gold ETF. I'm thinking of allocating over $300k for retirement purposes. While the potential for short-term gains in a bullish market is appealing, I recognize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment strategy.
Gold is seen as a safe bet during economic ups and downs. But investing in it can be tricky. Some people lose money because they don't understand how it works. So, it's wise to be careful. I suggest talking to a financial advisor who can help you figure out when to buy and sell.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Talking about a financial market specialist, do you consider anyone worthy of recommendations? I have about 100k to test the waters now that large cap stocks are at a discount... Thanks
Finding financial advisors like Marisa Michelle Litwinsky who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I've come across a lot of recommendations but this one stands out. Marisa Michelle Litwinsky" resume is pretty sophisticated, and shows she was active during the last bear market, I also emailed her. Thanks for the info!
@Rob Berger If you purchased treasury bills in an IRA account, can you do like kind exchanges to convert to a Roth account?
This is my first year investing, I only have $3,000 in my portfolio not including my home. If the market is going to crash and enter a depression, I hope it happens now and not when I actually have money 😭
I think the dissenting vote(s) are based on core inflation still being high and persistent. Powell's comment on a higher neutral rate gives a nod to the Fed's acknowledgement that core inflation is going to remain persistently higher at an established higher neutral. I agree with your assessment the Fed is worried about recession, which led to the 50 basis point cut. I think the Fed sees the looming problem of mass layoffs. Higher minimum wage policies are finally seriously impacting earnings and all the free money to bolster green policies are drying up. The Big 3 and the dealerships are in serious trouble and facing a strike (although I believe a certain party is going to quid pro quo promises to avert a strike this year like it did with hollywood and certain media companies like Disney), Boeing is facing a strike, and tech industry has seen a progressively higher level of layoff announcements. I don't think people realize the financial mess the Big 3 and the dealerships are in. The Big 3 have continued to pump out cars to avert layoffs even though their dealerships still have three model years worth of inventory that they cannot move. EV industry is hugely upside down and no amount of free money to incentive adoption is going to reverse the over 50% negative equity in them. So, I think the Fed sees it has a minimum of six months to establish rate cuts to mitigate ahead of an inevitable spike in layoffs post-election. I think the Fed is going to have to do another 50 basis point cut, if not higher, to mitigate high post-elelection layoffs and employment squeeze.
The now 4.75 rate is still 2 points above core
@@Username_CC_ Not sure your point. Core inflation is over 3%. The Fed has been using the word "recalibration," which is in line with Powell's comment on higher neutral rate. Basically, the Fed is recalibrating its policy to what it believes is a higher new normal. As Rob mentioned, I agree that the Fed is more concerned about a recession and not inflation. The recalibration of policy to a higher new normal and not the higher transitory all point to this. The Fed is looking at policies which are inherintly leading to a higher neutral rate like $20/hr minimum wage, green policies supported by large deficit stimulous, etc. The current lower unemployment is the only thing transitory, and the Fed is seeing strong indications the job market will shrink and reverse. The more problematic scenario is stagflation.
Have you looked at investing in the Australian stock market like VAS stock
Using FRSXX at 5.07% for cash.
This fund has a minimum initial individual, IRA, and Group Investment of $10,000,000.
Rob, thought you were using Fidelity Cash Management for Emergency Fund?
Still staying in Tbills for now
Ivey bank is currently at 5.30% with few withdrawal restrictions.
I will drop im sure...mine just went from 5.30 to 5.20 over night
Hi @rob can you provide some thoughts on this scenario.
A person's portfolio interest and dividends, plus SS covers all expenses.
Does this mean the bucket approach isn't relevant for this person?
What about asset allocation? Can the person be very conservative?
Dividend and interest payout is less than 3% of portfolio size.
And to add to that is the 4% withdrawals including dividends. Or can you keep your dividend and take out 4%
Are I bonds a definite no now?? At least buying before Nov guarantees a fixed rate portion for the life of the bond that at least gives it a foundation
Love your podcasts. Do you invest in equities?
He has previous videos where he explains his investments in detail.
If you look at his history of podcasts you will learn Yes, primarily ETFs and Apple.
no one seems concerned about a total currency default. i am reading about conversion to block chain digital currency. if this occurs, what then?
In the end, the fiat currency will fail
Short vs intermediate bond finds with falling rates. Is short just as good as things change.
thankfully for me no change is warranted. Even if rates go down to 3% on short term/liquid/cash accounts I'm good. I'll start looking for alternatives if they go below that at some point, but I'm good for at least 4 years.
Why do you think they won't go below 3% over 4 years? Just curious.
The mountain of debt the U.S. owes they will have to offer higher rates for people/other country to buy it @user-oh8jj8ht1s
I don't understand why you wouldn't put money into the stock market. If you're careful the yield there would be much higher than any bonds or savings.
I’m not speaking for Rob. But, my cash is money I need in the near term. So, I don’t want it in the market.
Portfolio construction has different considerations for people in a variety of financial situations.
The market goes up, on average, 7 out of 10 years. No “being careful” will change that. If you’re invested in stocks, you are going to lose sometimes. If you’re going to need to withdraw money during those down years, you might want to have your withdrawal needs safe in cash equivalents, and not take risk with it.
If you’re young and working, with low fixed expenses and stable income to cover them, you can put all your investment money into stocks. Over time, you will make money.
Not a good idea to do that if you’re retired and withdrawing from your holdings to pay your living expenses because you no longer have work income. Appropriate risk levels change through life.
Because you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket (equities), stocks don't endlessly just go up, there are downturns, investing is about not losing money as much about making money, fixed income is your defence, if you have no defensive position you are at great risk
Usually there is a major downturn in stocks during the rate cutting cycle. Don't believe me, put up a chart of the s&p next to a chart of the fed funds rate. In some of the downturns, the high wasn't reached for a decade or more. That's why you don't want all your money in stocks.
They are cooking the books on un/employment #’s in my personal opinion.
You make another assumption that govt inflation numbers are what they say they are, no way! Inflation is riding a lot higher that what we are being told. Just go to any store you shop at regularly and scan items you bought a month or year ago and see how much prices have gone up. A lot more than just 3 or 4 percent
You sound sick, hope you feel better❤
Rob. Any thoughts about the cash sweep accounts for cash given the interest rate change.
Interesting and it sounds like you are conservatively invested. However, my view on the economy is significantly different. I believe a 50 basis point move by the Fed is a big red flag especially this far into the election cycle and was purely political. The rate that the federal government has been pouring money into the economy without any return in goods and service tells me that inflation is a long way from being under control. Additionally, the housing market is feeling more than just mortgage rates, the increased cost of living in all sectors, including housing, leaves little room for "moving up." This is also reflected in the auto market. There is hardly a day that goes by where a major business chain closing or corporation having lay-offs in not in the news.
I agree. It was such an odd move or an odd time but really it’s both. Political move
No body will see anything until 2026
Why would ANYONE want 4% return, when Gold and Silver are up well over 20% for just 6 months?
Because we aren’t that dumb
Would love to know your thoughts on using a preferred share ETF as a fixed income component now that money market rates will come down? @Rob Berger
Reserve assets? 50% VMFXX & 50% SGOL
Commercial real estate and banks...
PFF (iShares Preferred ETF)
Inflation rate is not accurate. It’s about 50% in the real world. Go to Home Depot or the grocery store
Agreed. Publix prices are insane.
So you're saying The average price of products in these stores has gone up 50% per year? I doubt it.
@@markr857 since 2020
@@markr857 mark believe what you will.
My cash is staying in MM, im waiting for the crash then its 3x s&p 500
I am awfully late in investing at 33 with just about $80,000 in savings as i have never invested in the stock market. I’m worried about missing out on compound interest and want to make smart choices for my future. If I invest aggressively, can I still retire with at least $1 million by age 65?
I had cancer in my 40s and luckily survived. Up till then I had good investment results but nobody taught me so I made a lot of mistakes but valuable mistakes. At 43 I had 350k in investments. After cancer I invested super aggressively because I really didn't care about money after my cancer. 10 years later my portfolio in stocks was nearly $3 million. I'm in tech so I know which companies are valuable and I invested heavily in those. I didn't buy dumb stocks like companies I've never heard of or penny stocks. My question to all investors is would you invest $10k in Microsoft for $400/share or $10k in a startup for $5/share. If you are thinking in any way those microsoft shares are too expensive then you SHOULD NOT invest aggressively because you haven't learned stock logic and your financial emotions will sabotage your portfolio.
Keep your cash in your pocket. Plant food. You need food to live.
I would love for you to to interview Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton.
Would the cut in interest rate help turning around the miserable bond index fund performance of the last few years?
It has already been. No?
@@bobby350z Somewhat but nowhere near the 2020 peak level
Go Bucks!
I’m leaving my cash in VWIAX it will be fine for the rest of the year. I’ll reevaluate in January.
I love the Wellesley Fund and hold a lot of it in my portfolio, but it's not a substitute for cash (case in point -- 2022 was an exceptionally tough year for VWINX/VWIAX).
@@alwaysfadingecho you’re right I meant VMFXX
It would have been a surprise if it hadn't been 50 basis points.
I think he went 50 because he wanted to send a signal to the public that the rate-cutting segment has begun.
Yeah and to try to influence the election. Ain’t gonna work
The economy is NOT doing well. The job market is horrible, as are the following sectors: gas, food, retail, utilities, automotive, homes, rentals, and all forms of mandatory insurance consumers are urged or forced to buy.
Inflation is through the roof. People are struggling! Also hurting working consumers, are yearly salaries not keeping up with the drastic increase with all goods and services.
If you feel the job market is bad, you are not in the right location and definitely not looking at the data.
First 10% stock market correction and they will cut to near zero
I don't believe it, if this is the only input. Stock market is not one of the target measures they talk about.
@@erickarnell watch what they do