Predicting the Future - The Basics of MathHammer
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ค. 2024
- On this episode, Brad and Eric bring you back to one of the most exciting moments in everyone’s childhood: Math Class!!! But this time, instead of learning how to figure out the length of all the sides on a triangle, we optimize how to massacre our opponents on the battlefield!
Show Links:
Patreon: / solelysingleton
Website: poorhammer.libsyn.com/
Brad’s Twitter: / drruler
Eric’s Twitter: / onekuosora
00:00 Intro
00:51 UnitCrunch
02:21 Basic Dice Math
05:20 10th Edition Keywords
10:01 Shooting a Space Marine with Termagants
19:02 Electrocuting a Space Marine with Immortals
23:08 Kicking a Leman Russ with Custodes
27:48 Buff stacking with Genestealer Cults
32:16 Comboing off with Thousand Sons
37:11 Final Thoughts
Licensed Music Used By This Program:
“Night Out” by LiQWYD, CC BY
“Thursday & Snow (Reprise)” by Blank & Kytt, CC BY
“First Class” by Peyruis, CC BY
“Funky Souls” by Amaria, CC BY
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UnitCrunch for those interested in trying it out:
www.unitcrunch.com/
Sound on this episode should be louder than old episodes, but without the horrible audio quality issues caused by experimenting during last episode. We're going to use this volume moving forward. Special thanks to the random audience member who emailed us the GIGACHAD advice on how to fix the audio while also boosting it in Premier Pro.
There is some crackling on the audio when the volume spikes.
Very noticable the first 90 seconds but occasionally popin here and there from there on out.
Maybe the gain is set to high or a slightly blown mic/ board channel?
I appreciate your desire to shoot my wolves, I have been playing them for 19 years and have never played against thousand sons, but 10th finally got me to make my third army which is the thousand sons.
Ah yes, Mathhammer. The first step above and beyond any level of playtesting that GW will perform.
Literally rolling dice is a steop above and beyond what gw does
LOL GW BAD XD XD XD XD
@@rwjscaper Deathwatch Index having an 'unintended' combo they missed that was nerfed the day after it went public.
IDK as a fighting game person it seems like a game with this many models and layered buff rules is still a nightmare to balance with 30+ years of models inherited. The more generic and balanced it gets the less flavorful it may be unless you really get into the weeds then its a pain to play
@@keithsimpson2685 MtG spotted a jank interaction with a new card and two previously existing cards and released a new ruling to fix it the day the set launched. Now, considering that each set can have more unique cards than Space Marines has units and that Space Wolves *alone* have more data sheets (at just over 30) than half the game's factions, how does it make sense that GW can't even keep a single Codex straight?
1:15 reminds me of my favorite saying as a consultant. "Math doesn't lie, that's a job for statistics. "
The three kinds of lies.
Remember that when rolling 1d6, there's no bell curve. It's an equal chance of rolling any face value. What matters is how many faces, that's why a +1 is really strong.
"There's 4 types of lies, damn lies, Chaos lies, and statistics" Mathematics according to Warhammer 40k.
There's actually a fifth chaos god, the god of statistics, but he only exists as 0.9999 recurring and the Ecclesiarchy rounds down.
96% chance to hit. *Misses 12 times in a row*
Got some really bad seeds for that RNG.
That's XCOM baby!
This is probably the best episode you've ever done.
😂
Shut up nerd.
@@thepoorhammerpodcast Kiss my maths.
My favorite combo is a 10 man lychguard sword and shield unit, a technomancer with hypermaterial ablatoir, and an overlord with res orb. This gives them a 5+FNP, double reanimation, -1 to hit at range, light cover from more than 12", -1 to wound in general because the overlord is a noble, and the shields give them a 4+ invul
Add a pair of Murder Buckets and you got yourself my favorite immovable brick. Eric was not amused in our first game.
What is this bucket of murder you speak of?
@@daryljackson6088 Cryptothralls. They are a mini bodyguard unit you can attach to a unit if you have a Cryptek already attached. This makes for 3 units attached to 1.
@@daryljackson6088 Cryptothralls, I believe. They look like buckets on legs.
@@dyciefisk2535 most OP part of Cryptothralls is they permanently count as part of the bodyguard unit, so even if all of the thrall models die they can be endlessly brought back with Reanimation Protocol.
Now I'm imagining the "strands of fate" Is just the eldar codeword for "Math"
That’s canonically how Necron Chronomancers predict the future.
Harry Seldon hasn't entered the chat, there's a pinned message from him that was posted day one and never quite made sense until now...
The editing on this is really good... "lets go back to basics" and shows a clip of unit coherency being explained from the GW video
I’ve struggled with maths and dropped it after GCSE with the intention of picking it up again….however I’ve been thinking about maths in 40K and how to use it to my advantage in games so a big thumbs up from me and please keep making Math(s)hammer!
I really respect what yall did here, but it might be the first episode I can't finish. My mind just gets glassed from exterminatus running through these lengthy math scenarios!
33:35 Whether or not you can fire pistol weapons is actually determined on a model-by-model basis. If you look at the text in the rulebook, it says "If a model is equipped with one or more pistols, unless it is a monster or vehicle, it can either shoot with its pistols or all of its other ranged weapons".
I play Thousand Sons as well, and that tripped me up at first too, but after I checked the rules, it works out fine, just give the Sorcerer a sword so he can shoot and melee.
Good observation. But then I can only use one melee weapon per fight, right? So I'd get to choose the stave or the kopesh depending on the circumstances, but it feels kinda wasteful too?
I would argue that statistics don't lie to you (barring crappy math) it's just that they can still fail you - you should put money on statistics, like that's the whole point of them, you just also gotta accept that sometimes that money will go away.
Statistics is a useful tool when generalizing with a large sample size. It's not as useful when examining individual cases and can be misleading if you aren't careful.
Statistics are a language of relationships. Numbers are their alphabet. The problems occur when you mistranslate what the combination of numbers is saying. Numbers without context have no meaning.
Is Eric actually a Nuclear Physicist? Like that's the biggest bomb from this episode and I need to know. And if he is thank you for all the amazing work you do sorry people are idiots
I mean techincally a hydrogen bomb would be a "bigger bomb" than a nuke :P
I believe that I heard in a different episode that he has that Degree, but works in a different field.
Its cool to see how math people look at warhammer. My monkey brain just sees numbers and pulls the slot machine handle and then it is what it is.
Why I play orks
Just discovered the show, could have used this years ago but I’m binging your content, you guys are great! Loved the editor guest episode for army building, great stuff guys! Cool episode (math is cool damnit)
Funnily enough, you used that XCOM footage from a playthrough where that sectoid was bugged.
Very stupid combo: Captain Tycho for blood angels can give ranged weapons rapid fire 1. Put him, a lieutenant with bolter discipline, and 10 foot vanguard veterans with inferno pistols in a rhino. Now make Mortarion your oath target, disembark the bomb within 3” of him, and one tap him on average with just shooting
The "3.5" thing is something of a misconception. The chance of hitting every number on a D6 is nominally equal (it might be slightly off depending on how well the die is balanced). Therefore, by definition, there cannot be such a thing as an expected result. What the "3.5 average" really means is that if you roll a die enough times (like, over a thousand or something like that), the sum total of your results will eventually become something around 3.5 times the number of times you rolled the die, due to all the ones and sixes evening each other out. It does not mean that rolling a four is more likely than rolling a six. It's not. It's the exact same chance of either.
I'm sure you understand this, I just didn't hear you explain it in the video, so I decided to put it out there.
Math hammer is fun and all, but we've all seen those incredibly low statistic rolls where a single dude manages to completely tank a melee squad all around him except for the commander despite being a crisis battlesuit.
I was that guy, I had a crisis commander who was surrounded and just absolutely devastated a close combat space marine squad in my first ever game.
this is my favorite podcast and if its ok could you consider talking about the best units to run in an army of each main faction eg. necrons, orks, and custodians?
Thanks for another great video! Always entertaining and a bright spot in my week
Math with our dads is the best math
A lot less yelling than normal though😊
I really would like to see pages of notes and/or a visual representation of the mathematical effort that was put into this. Or a T-shirt demonstrating how it translates to a disappointing dice roll. Love the symposium!
If only Brad had that website when building the “2000 point army for 500$” Video
My current favourite is to pull this from the other side. How durable can I make this. Sword and board lychguard with technomancer crypothralls and an overlord for -1 to wound toughness 6, 3+ save 4++, 4 or 5+++ and regening wounds each turn
World Eaters can run 120 Jackals with Daemon Princes and Blessings of Khorne to have a 120 wound army with a 4+ invuln and 5+ feel no pain lol
Love the xcom vid when talking about missing a shot,
Great thumbnail.
Editor, we appreciate you.
Thanks for the unitcrunch website.
New to the hobby (Sisters 4 Ever) and happy I found y'all! Great content, lads.
I'm excited for this!
Wish I had learned about this tool 2 months ago when I started getting into the game, would've saved so many afternoons building spreadsheets for basic economy crunching.
Wow you guys weren't wrong, these videos are really a step above the audio only version, consider me a convert!
A great way to start the morning
You forgot to add Kurt Angle into the mix.
True, chances of winning would drastic go down.
This video was perfect. Played a game yesterday. GSC vs. Necrons, I had two 10person squads of Neophyte Hybrids attacking a squad of Lich guard. I definitely shot everything I had into them twice and did nothing. Not a single point of damage. Wish I saw this video beforehand.
New Math! Newheuwhew math! It’s so simple, that only a child could do itttt!!!!
Yeah don’t trust the funny numbers, always assume your opponent will roll the best, and you will roll the worst. It’s easier that way.
Edit: thanks for doing some of my termigaunt math for me. Honestly actually extremely useful.
Oooh more math and combo's please 😊
Countless “lunch hours”. Right. Any time between 8am and 6pm.
Is that a f*cking clip from Super Best Friends play Xcom 2? Hell yeah.
The feels when you are a Daemon player so you don’t get options… or index synergy. Math Hammer gets kinda depressing
Look at your Be'lakor model. That's a sweet model. Do you feel better? :)
On the other hand, if you hate mathhammer or making loadout decisions, you can just pick whatever units you want and throw them in an army. They won't necessarily be _good,_ but you can do it.
@@travelbyfire8474 doesn't help if you are playing true mono god (without undivided units)
@@communisticus191 My solution was to enjoy how cool Be'lakor's model looks to feel better. This remains true even if you play Tyranids.
@@travelbyfire8474 Very true, but my point was more "It doesn't help if you don't have a Be'lakor model to look at since you only build true mono god lists". At least the GD still look baller on the shelf
A fun combo is a full 10 sized unit of Drukhari Scourges run in a Ynnari arny with all splinter cannons and shard carbines. You pop the Bladestorm strat for 2 bonus AP on critical wounds, and then all the ANTI-Infantry 3+ wounds will become pretty deadly
"TH-cam pleasantries" is my new favorite term
My friend is still pissed that my librarian managed to face-tank 40 burst cannon hits with only 1 wound.
Statistically, he should be dead. Realistically, he is the master of the 6's.
Best Warhammer podcast.
Damn. I created basically unitcrunch in a python module before i just watched this video and learnt about the website.
As a savescummer that played both xcom games, the meme is real. Both games have built in algorithms for each roll called a seed. The seed is determined before the roll and it has to be modded out if you want the math to actually roll out. Missing a 96% chance to hit sure sucks but it’s certainly possible but if you save scum you will discover that shot will MISS 96% of the time. Xcom specifically (Baldurs Gate 3 has a similar “seed” algorithm) absolutely fudges rolls because it’s literally coded into the game.
Definitely showcases the potential power of leadership, auras, and strategem interactions. When you see someone just using CP to do re-rolls and nothing else, or running lists that don't give them good CP generation, it's likely that they aren't getting the most value out of their units as they could.
One half of the comments: I'm stumped by the math
Other half: don't undersell the math so hard, statistics doesn't lie, you just need some understanding and context.
I guess what trips most people up and good on you for bringing this up: it's not just all about averages. If you want to understand your army, you need to look at different measure of variance to understand how consistently it will perform.
Eric freaking at the end.....is me
The Thousand Sons combo is also super expensive, but that's how things go.
If you have 1 more CP you can extend the bolter range.
I normally have to listen to 3 different videos before I sub to a channel. This was the 2nd vid I've watched, and I just subbed. Guess you rolled that crit, gents!
I'm sad you didn't add Twist of Fate to the kast combo with Tsons (turning off their armor save). It's very possible on turn 1 or 2 and really takes the damage to the moon
Wow I didn’t know he was a Nuclear Physicist, I’m curious as to what he thinks of his job? I’m in college right now, majoring in Physics with the end goal of hopefully becoming a Nuclear Physicist myself, so I’d love to know what he thinks of it and his personal opinions on the field in general.
Quick note on the Termagant shooting marines thing. Wounding on 5s with twin linked is closer to 55% wounds. Not a huge difference from 50%, but the pistol does do a bit more on average
One time in Titanicus I would hit 8-10 shots with one weapon each turn, it needed 5+ save... And not one of them wounded, 3 turns in a row
I recognized the SBFP XCOM footage. It's a shame you guys didn't use the very next shot, when a bug caused a hilarious miss.
I love the gambler's falaky
You guys made math fun
Love the gigachad war criminal profile
These weren't even memes for the episode, that's my actual UnitCrunch basic profiles I run stuff against while bored on lunch.
"Lies, damned lies, and 4% chance to miss in XCOM"
My quick average resoult calculation is to utilise the fact im looking up stats in an app anyway and have a calculator opened. Whenever I need to calculate predicted DMG i just quickly do "number of shots"/6 times the amount of dice resouts that succed and then repeat the same with ammount of successes per wound and then for saves. It's bare bones basic doesn't account for rerolling special rules etc but gives a general idea if you need to use that strat for Dev wounds or +1ap
So, this is the episode where Orikan doesn't guess future, he's just a math nerd ?
As usual, awesome episode, great content.
Kind of on brand for Brad to want to predict the outcome of events since his character and favorite army is, well, the Tzeentch one
Ok then I have never played, and this math scares me....
I think I will stick with the stories and maybe build a model or two....lol
Guys great job explaining how some of this works, but still staying with the stories.
Keep up the great work!!
I have a cool combo, I just need those psychic thousand sons to get into charge distance of my psychophages.
Acolytes with demo charges can actually take a big chunk out of a knight.
You need a handful of stratagems, but they can hit it pretty hard.
Math is the blind spot in my intelligence. If I focus on it HARD I can do really well at it. But I can't conceptualize numbers very well in my brain, not naturally. So I'm not sure if I'll ever become a probability player. I'll probably come to these realizations more intuitively.
Heard the nuclear physic background and peaked my ears haha. Am currently studying radiation therapy (the side of radiation where we to help people) and it still doesn’t need a doctorate 😅
Dont rely on those +AP on hit modifier. I missed all 8 autocannon shots from my LR then missed 9/11 HK missiles all RR1 to hit.
For dice pool it better to look at how the odds change when the situation change.
Did Brad just make his own set of all the data sheets in UnitCrunch? Cause even the reddit for UnitCrunch only has Custodes, Sisters and Tyrranids. If so can you share please
Out of curiosity with the Immortals and Custodes was their unit ability to re-roll wound rolls of 1 taken into account?
Yes for Immortals (though only 1s, we did all as well but that was cut from the video version to make the episode flow better.) No for custodes, I forgot to even check their ability until we had moved on...
The only math i need is
More Dakka = more hits = more damage
Waaaaaaaagh!
The fleshborer is exactly why no gear costs blows
anyone have links to 10th edition imports for unitcrunch?
I really enjoyed MathHammer
The new destructor rule on predators is a nifty little thing. It turns Inferno heavy bolters from AP -2 to AP -3 , letting you nom on some wolves for cheap. Just wish I had a Razorback with a pair of inferno combis and a twin inferno heavy on top. Then life would be good. Maths would be fun, and smurfs would fall victim to IFVs just as they should.
To be fair, XCOM statistics might as well not exist with how the game seems to actively fudge the numbers against the player.
"95% chance to hit" in that game actually means you'll hit about 60% of your shots, while "25% chance to get hit" means you'll be hit 50% of the time.
As an engineer thisnepisode made me happy
I'd watch this, but I already listened to the pod. Still, I'll leave a comment for your algorithm
First! Make sure to turn on post notifications!
We love breakpoints
What utter heresy did I just witness at 28:06?
Oh no, i came here fully knowing i would suffer from witnessing math. I still came.
Ah yes, the Thousand Sons attempting to avenge Prospero… again… anyway, have you met our friend Morkai and his Hounds led by a Reiver Lieutenant? 😜
Thousand sons are going to be so cp starved. I need more cultists
I'm currently making a bunch of homebrew Points-Changes, because GW's pointcosts are not based on statistics and math, but they are used to push products.
I hate statistics tho. So this will be fun.
good luck with that. militarum will be a nightmare between all the characters' abilities, orders, weapon profiles, and outside buffs in various combinations for just the 4 different battleline units.
Never tell me the odds!
i shall comment to support the video
All I know is my orks will always do the exact opposite of what is useful.
I got lossed in the sauce in this video lol
XCOM - Long War - Rebalance! Best game ever!
Burning incense for the machine spirit
GW dice have a bias for 1s (somebody did a test to this with several thousand rolls)
And you shouldn't be using Bell curves for dice
@@beanman853why not?
Yay maths!
The difference between theory and practice. In theory they are the same, in practice they are not.
According to statistics if a shoot 2 arrows, one goes 1 meter to the left of the target and the other 1 meter to the left, it would give me a perfect aim😎
As a death guard player what are these combos you speak of?