Hello.Always enjoying your time and post. Always listening for many years but I wanted to send some info this time. I was leaving Tennessee for Barcelona and stopped into Boston to Paris and today Barcelona Lego store (1 official and 2 not ) but the stores I went to did not have 1 set and said they did not expect anymore. I know that in different regions they might but all 6 stores had 0. SW cantina. Might be a situation like the Rome coll. That disappeared Anyways enjoy. Jason
Im honestly not suprised on 12 Grimmauld Place. It is a one of kind set and comes with some unique minifigs. Also its a nice build for city builders as well, been seeing a lot of those incorporated into city builds lately. Burn out for harry potter collectors usually involves Hogwarts related things, like Train and castle. Things you expect lego to produce pretty regularly. I definitely agree the house banners caught a lot of flack due to the book series. However, me personally they make great wall decor as Im sure many now see them as. They dont take up a lot of space and are aesthetically pleasing against a mute background
That's something that I notice more and more, the US and European market are very different. For example, the Monster Jam serie here in Europe (at least France) is not very good from an investment point of view ,there are tons of listings and the price for a sealed box is around 15€
The LEGO reselling market in Germany is virtually dead, massive amounts of sets are being bought by average joe "investors". Very few people are willing to pay premium for retired sets. Most of the sets retired in 23 are selling well below MSRP. Even in the US, megalodon is selling for as low as 10$ (Jun 14 listing) on Ebay (without shipping), not sure where the numbers come from in the video. On Bricklink US it is 15$. Megalodon is a dud. There is a massive price difference between Amazon and all other Platforms which I yet struggle to understand.
I really liked the look of the Megladon for investing. Here in the UK they retailed for £18 but (unless I completely missed it) we just didn’t get any great sales on it. I’m managed to pick up just the 1 copy up from a supermarket when it was down to £9, it was the only one on the shelf. I don’t think the remaining Monster Jam sets look anywhere near as good. I did however pick up 3 of the modular police stations which are doing very well. If only I’d put more money into them rather than the Medievil Blacksmith
My anecdotal experience with the postcard is that I went on a trip to London and Paris with my girlfriend and wanted to buy the london and paris postcard. I was able to easily buy the london on shelves but it feels empty only with london so now I’m sorta forced to buy them both with the paris sitting above 40+. I’ll remember this for this year when the Australia and Beijing one retire.
I had interest in the hp banners and picked up a few each, but didn't get as many as I wanted. I was primarily interested because of the 10 month shelf life. It is easy to see the supply issues in hindsight for the hufflepuff set. For a group of sets like this I would buy all 4 and enjoy in the success of hufflepuff.
I knew the HP 12 Grimmauld was going to do well. But I kept listening to all these people who "knew better". Now I am actually mad. Never again I will listen to anyone. I will go with my own instinct and know how.
I notice that "bad" sets that aren't particularly desirable and have slow sales are some of the best performers. If you buy all the "bad" sets you'll just lose lots of money. Any strategy to deal with this?
The key difference on “bad” sets is the supply. If there are very few sellers and they are priced above MSRP, when the set sells out, even a small amount of demand can push those sets to high prices. But if it’s a set with low demand and it has plenty of supply, it will not perform well in retirement 👍
awesome video, just one question...to see all those charts, which keepa´s version (paid) do you have? i think there´s only one premium option available right?
Paris Postcad and TukTuk were good sets, but both just disappeared without warning. How do you handle the sudden disappearance if sets? Do you stockpile a few just in case?
We cant always pick the winners.. BUT can you project growth… maybe Now.. is a buy.. where will they be during the holidays.. im changing my perspective on when is the best buy time.. supply and demand can be measured better after retirement.. of course there is the opportunity of big discounts..as a good buy time.
Your budget is a big factor for determining when you need to start buying. If you have a smaller budget, waiting until the last few months of the year is definitely wise because you’ll be able to have a much better picture of the situations around the retiring sets. For myself, I try to hold off most buying till the May the 4th promos from LEGO. In the US, sales start to get better in the summer and we typically see the best sales throughout Q4
Great analysis Brian! A good investor always looks at our successes AND what can be learned from sets we missed. Nice work as always!
Thanks Austin!
I've seen the Batman Art set used for a lot of Art mocs. I guess the color palette is really versatile.
Harry Potter Hospital Wing is also doing incredible, particularly considering it was widely available at Walmart for $26 in December
Hello.Always enjoying your time and post. Always listening for many years but I wanted to send some info this time. I was leaving Tennessee for Barcelona and stopped into Boston to Paris and today Barcelona Lego store (1 official and 2 not ) but the stores I went to did not have 1 set and said they did not expect anymore. I know that in different regions they might but all 6 stores had 0. SW cantina. Might be a situation like the Rome coll. That disappeared
Anyways enjoy. Jason
Thanks Jason! Appreciate the info 👍
Im honestly not suprised on 12 Grimmauld Place. It is a one of kind set and comes with some unique minifigs. Also its a nice build for city builders as well, been seeing a lot of those incorporated into city builds lately. Burn out for harry potter collectors usually involves Hogwarts related things, like Train and castle. Things you expect lego to produce pretty regularly. I definitely agree the house banners caught a lot of flack due to the book series. However, me personally they make great wall decor as Im sure many now see them as. They dont take up a lot of space and are aesthetically pleasing against a mute background
Thanks great video
No problem!
I have a lot of HP banners and they don't sell at all, at least here in europe
They are stellar in the US. Sold my last set of 4 banners for $200 on eBay in March. Wish I had more..
That's something that I notice more and more, the US and European market are very different. For example, the Monster Jam serie here in Europe (at least France) is not very good from an investment point of view ,there are tons of listings and the price for a sealed box is around 15€
The LEGO reselling market in Germany is virtually dead, massive amounts of sets are being bought by average joe "investors". Very few people are willing to pay premium for retired sets. Most of the sets retired in 23 are selling well below MSRP. Even in the US, megalodon is selling for as low as 10$ (Jun 14 listing) on Ebay (without shipping), not sure where the numbers come from in the video. On Bricklink US it is 15$. Megalodon is a dud. There is a massive price difference between Amazon and all other Platforms which I yet struggle to understand.
I really liked the look of the Megladon for investing. Here in the UK they retailed for £18 but (unless I completely missed it) we just didn’t get any great sales on it. I’m managed to pick up just the 1 copy up from a supermarket when it was down to £9, it was the only one on the shelf. I don’t think the remaining Monster Jam sets look anywhere near as good.
I did however pick up 3 of the modular police stations which are doing very well. If only I’d put more money into them rather than the Medievil Blacksmith
Bought 30 of 21188 at €65 , already well over 100%
My anecdotal experience with the postcard is that I went on a trip to London and Paris with my girlfriend and wanted to buy the london and paris postcard. I was able to easily buy the london on shelves but it feels empty only with london so now I’m sorta forced to buy them both with the paris sitting above 40+. I’ll remember this for this year when the Australia and Beijing one retire.
I’m excited about the early Amazon sales on 76225 Miles Morales. Not bad after only 6 months.
I went fairly deep on the Megadolan set. Avg £9-11, amz price is about £27 but I think it'll get to about £40.
Awesome, congrats!
I had interest in the hp banners and picked up a few each, but didn't get as many as I wanted. I was primarily interested because of the 10 month shelf life. It is easy to see the supply issues in hindsight for the hufflepuff set. For a group of sets like this I would buy all 4 and enjoy in the success of hufflepuff.
Very interesting retrospective. Would love to know what set are on the shelves behind you.
Thanks! Mainly Battle of Endor Heroes and Republic Fighter Tanks
I knew the HP 12 Grimmauld was going to do well. But I kept listening to all these people who "knew better". Now I am actually mad. Never again I will listen to anyone. I will go with my own instinct and know how.
I notice that "bad" sets that aren't particularly desirable and have slow sales are some of the best performers. If you buy all the "bad" sets you'll just lose lots of money. Any strategy to deal with this?
The key difference on “bad” sets is the supply. If there are very few sellers and they are priced above MSRP, when the set sells out, even a small amount of demand can push those sets to high prices. But if it’s a set with low demand and it has plenty of supply, it will not perform well in retirement 👍
No Opps... You do a fine job and I appreciate your videos...
Thanks for the support!
Very strange this years retireing exclusives are almost all search suppressed on amazon. This is really a killer.
awesome video, just one question...to see all those charts, which keepa´s version (paid) do you have? i think there´s only one premium option available right?
Thanks! I have the $20 a month subscription for Keepa
I tried to grab more Paris postcards but Lego ran out. Dang
Was able to grab two of the megaladon for $4.40 each from Walmart :-)
Paris Postcad and TukTuk were good sets, but both just disappeared without warning. How do you handle the sudden disappearance if sets? Do you stockpile a few just in case?
Yeah if you’re looking to go deep in a set, you’ll want to start buying earlier in the year than just late November 👍
I told you about 76408 last year !!!
In Poland still 10% under MSRP
We cant always pick the winners.. BUT can you project growth… maybe Now.. is a buy.. where will they be during the holidays.. im changing my perspective on when is the best buy time.. supply and demand can be measured better after retirement.. of course there is the opportunity of big discounts..as a good buy time.
Your budget is a big factor for determining when you need to start buying. If you have a smaller budget, waiting until the last few months of the year is definitely wise because you’ll be able to have a much better picture of the situations around the retiring sets.
For myself, I try to hold off most buying till the May the 4th promos from LEGO. In the US, sales start to get better in the summer and we typically see the best sales throughout Q4