Tesla in 2030 - $40,000/share? The Battery-Revenue Model
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ต.ค. 2020
- Tesla's stock price in 2030 could reach $40,000 per share. Modeling growth through total battery supply as described on Battery Day yields striking results.
This follows on the video about Tesla 2022 that more thoroughly explains the Battery-Revenue model: • TESLA 2022: Batteries ...
Spreadsheet links at bottom of description.
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Spreadsheet links:
drive.google.com/file/d/12Qoo...
drive.google.com/file/d/1fUiu...
drive.google.com/file/d/1g7ad...
drive.google.com/file/d/1pTia...
#Tesla #TSLA #Revenue - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
Nothing you said was crazy, I think it’s just hard for people to wrap their head around such huge numbers.
Great vid.
Can a automaker company really be go that high per share ?! Don’t play like that ! I have 25 shares and if it’s that in 10 years that’s over 900k in profit !!!! I’m a Tesla bull! Them and Disney.
@@thronetheone3370 they are not only a car company. They have 12 startups under Tesla
And people don't understand exponential growth.
@@jopiorienteering 40k a share means 40T mcap, you understand that right? :D
@@dfghjkl273 Just the antitrust law will be enough to sink that dream...
Saying Tesla is a Car company is like saying Disney is a Cartoon company.
No... it’s like saying Disney is a Florida swamp land real estate companey... lol.
Hahaha well said
Saying that hyundai is a car company is just like saying that hyundai shipyard just makes canoes......
Whatever TSLA is they're insanely overvalued
@@harrisonwintergreen1147 How do you know that?
I’m with you all the way I believed in Tesla never bought a stock in my life but I’m buying tesla I’m 80 years old I cannot start any sooner.
are you really 80?
Yes I am 80or 1940 I’m having a little trouble with Robin Hood we have a lack of communication I had problems with my Wi-Fi it’s hard to keep up with them stay away from margins if you canHave a great life
The old man again I was still like to buy to test stock no margins just straight by the sock and stay out of that all rats nest I don’t think I’ll ever get all my money I just saw a ghost chalk it up to experience I’m a wait a little bit before about Tesla stock it’s going to bounce right back
@@leroywarner7354 old man, and I say that with the greatest respect I hope to utter over the internet. You give me hope for the future. Godspeed good sir, building a better future!
@@leroywarner7354 don't fret the day to day swings. Over time, annually, this will continue to grow.
I’ll take $10,000/share I don’t want to be greedy lol!!
Come on man think big. Why not 1 Million per share. Tesla investors are all genuises an dthey deserve to be richer than Bezos
@Jarrod Martyn 😆
lol
Me too 10k
Just gradually start taking as you NEED the cash when its 10k
You knocked this one out of the park! I felt the closing thoughts, where you shared your thoughts about acting on breakout winners when you recognize them, was super valuable. Well worth the 38 minutes!
Retired 12 years earlier. Tesla investment inclusion in my portfolio have expedited that process.
Congratulations !... That's all of us plan , isn't it ?
Only if you take profits. Can’t retire on paper gains.
cool .....hope I can retire 2021 with TSLA :-)
@@jeffcann7233 oh yes you can :-)
Just retired myself at 50. Not selling any shares yet. Recently sold Jan 22 covered calls on 1/3 of my holdings for cash to live on while the shares increase in value.
You are optimistic, but also reasonable and analytical. I like the varied projections, and for all of them, I hope that you are the least wrong!
Nicely put.
Warren can you study the transition from horse and buggy to car...
I don't know what you mean about the transition.
I was going to write my own comment but yours matches my view exactly. Thanks!
Thats insane value in just one vid u put together. Much appreciated
It's not a video it's a whole documentary about tesla future. Thank you for the great insights and your views. I am going to buy 2 shares at least which I can afford right now, which is better than nothing.
Always appreciate you sharing your forecasts 👍🏽.
Like the subject time line concept, very transparent and useful.
Keep up the great insight as they are thought triggering.
I have a decent amount of shares I brought pre-split at $217, have brought some more at higher prices, just on these shares once Tesla's value reaches around $1.5 trillion my wife and I can retire safely. We don't need to buy a massive house or need luxury items to show off our wealth, just a comfortable life and make sure our son is setup in life. The rest of our wealth we can give to those that need it more than us. I hope others that make ridiculous amounts of wealth from Tesla or other such investments use their wealth to do good in this world.
good people
agreed!
Man, I’m doing the same, $210 presplit price. Took my initial investment off the table for profits and regret that every day. But I console myself by knowing it only sets me back by one year. I used my margin account for buy more, @600 @567. My end game is to accumulate as many shares as possible. I’ll delve into options too. I’ve given away this year $1.5M
Too much faith in the almighty dollar. I wonder if, a year later, you’ll reconsider selling. Seems unwise to exchange TSLA shares for dollars in the face of inflation.
@@BB-xy5nd Not sure why you think I have faith in any currency. The value I put was the dollars valuation of the company at the time. It's not like I'll sell all my shares at one point, as when I need money.
First time that I view one of your videos, very well done!!
I’ve never been so excited about the future.
Great job, Warren. It will be fun to watch this video in five years.
I really hope your predictions come true. 🤞
Right now we’re hovering above Ark invest base case for 2030 their base case 1500 we’re around 2000
We be rich if he is
@@3deaster that is their 2024 case, they have never made a 2030 PT yet
Great words towards the end!! Pure informational gold!! Thank you for the effort you are putting into these videos 👍🏽
Ive watched your videos a few times
And every time it get better 😀
Good research.
I just found your channel and this video, and totally agree with your bullish outlook on tesla. Thanks for sharing, and keep up the great work!
Update needed Warren. Love you brother
GREAT VIDEO ! I LOVE ALL YOUR VIDEOS ! THANK YOU ! THANK YOU ! THANK YOU ! ALWAYS LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING NEW VIDEOS !
Retire early. Create generational wealth for my kids. This is the opportunity I’ve hoped for my whole adult life. 🤞
Don’t have kid
Me too!
Until the stock crashes and your fucked
@@jfrank7535 then you hold until the crash passes
Thanks for the update. You have a knack to explain things easy for those of us mathematically challenge. Keep it up.
Thank you for your kind words.
I love it! You seem to really like to grind the numbers. Keep it up! Thank you.
Thank you for your video.
Truly a positive easy to understand explanation.
I have subscribed. Looking forward to more!
Nice work!
great work, you do an incredible job on all of your videos! Seriously, you really are doing the best work of any channel on youtube regarding tesla
Thank you
I bought 4 shares of tesla stock a week ago at 460$ i was undecided two weeks ago when it was at 400$ but im thinking of buying more right now its at 570$ today
Yeah same 4 stocks is all I can afford atm so I hope it pays off lol I brought at $550ea
Don't wait to long, I did the same
2 shares at 407 lol
2 shares today at 597
650 now
Deeply thank you for sharing, really appreciate this information.
I really like the structured approach, explaining the entire context and background of the calculations, on to the estimates. Well done!
Thank you
You are not crazy, Tesla growth is going to be huge. With the recent release of beta FSD they will be first to market with FSD and that will only make them grow faster. GO TESLA!
I grew up with gas powered scooters and mo peds. They were loud and polluted like crazy. Have an electric bike now, it's light years ahead. Electric power is the future.
Dont u miss that engine sound and that oil?
Nonsense, the noise is only because of the exhaust, also gas bikes are still miles better go everywhere machines
@@moineaux9173 i am an oil guy electric ok if u want a gocart
@@SAMMYJR00777 nope I would never go back to an ice engine. Test drive a juiced bike and you'll see what I mean.
Your passion and enthusiasm towards Tesla and importantly your forward looking analysis, is at least catchy! I'll stick with the middle 2020-30 growth line (green line) of your last chart, but that makes those kinds of gains simply amazing. I have a feeling that my kids are going to treat me alright in my old age :)
Great analysis, compelling arguments and well presented. Than you so much.
later everybody will ask themselves: why, i didn’t buy more
i dont have mor emoney i'm from argentina a broke contry. (broken by populists)
I already do ask myself that
Not me.
Chill out dude 😂
Just keep buying
The best Tesla, or for that matter, the best stock/company analysis I've ever seen, hands down, thank you, I'm in, just bought my first Tesla today!!
Thanks for the info. I agree with everything you pointed out. Will add some more share to my portfolio.
Your videos are great... a lot of respect!
When I watched this, despite being a Tesla Bull, I thought Tesla’s current market cap already had a lot of future growth built into it. However, a quick check on AAPL showed me that their market cap of $1.97T is 7.2 times their revenue of $273.86B. So 10x for a company such as Tesla does seem to be in the ball park. Thanks for the interesting video.
Yes. And Tesla will have higher margins too.
As much as I’d like to see it hit $40k a share in ten years. I can’t see little old me being a $100+ millionaire. I’ll settle for $25 mil, drinks will be on me, lol.
This is the one! 5k in Amazon 20 years ago is over 3 million today. Tesla is the one and it will be the number 1 stock in the world by 2030. Elon said he wants to build factories on every continent.
I really hope your predictions come true. 🤞
I keep saying we found amazon 30 years ago
5k would be 1 145 000 of you bought Amazon 20 years ago. Still outlandish but far from 3 million.
We'll done 2D friend. You have an insight I dig.
Excellent analysis and breakdown.
$40k seems like a bit of a pipe dream but you make compelling arguments. If this comes true I will be insanely rich. 1/10 of that and I am already loaded. TSLA to the moon! Great video.
Thank you for sharing all your research with us and I especially appreciate you giving us your heart to heart insights toward the end of the video about missed opportunities due to fear . In that moment when you talked about not getting In on Microsoft and not buying enough Apple . (I had slot of amazon in 2000 and sold it when it 4x ) 🤦♀️ I felt like I was getting advice from my wise uncle . It's smart to diversify but like you said every once in a while you have this outlier company thats undeniably special and you have to seize the moment and take advantage of the opportunity .Thank you for this video I will be sharing with others 🙏🏾
Stumbled across this video by pure accident, all I can say is fantastic video Warren 👏🏻 Major Tesla bull here, but didn’t realise quite how crazy the numbers could be going forward until I watched your video. You’ve got a new subscriber!
i just join into your show. great shows & you are on point !!
I can't even imagine... I only own 60 stocks but these stockprices would set me up for my retirement.
Get more! I'm just about to reach double figures in Tesla stock so having 60 is fantastic, keep it up ✊
@Billion Dollars Problem Why's that?
@Billion Dollars Problem thank you! we will buy more!
@Billion Dollars Problem yeah right 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@Billion Dollars Problem who this? Gordon johnson?
This is the best breakdown I have seen on Teasla! It helps me feel a little bit better that maybe I am not really crazy after all for putting all my eggs in one basket😜
I did the same! I told my family to invest in Tesla, but didn’t mention that I was all in. They’d call me crazy. But it’s crazy not to invest in Tesla
Great video man 👍🏻
Sr. Thanks you for this exceptional video.
One thing that I've been thinking about a lot lately is something to do with their energy sector- if Tesla maintains ownership of the megapacks they make, the consistent revenue they will make from selling energy through autobidder is going to be insane. I look at it as the FSD catalyst for their energy business.
I think i read that Tesla mega pack , big batteries for wind farms ect are sold out until sometime in 2023
I just took a big position in Tesla. Not so much for the cars in general but for the energy sector and the potential to how many billions it can tap into as we slowly convert to cleaner more affordable energy
Yeah.. It’s really amazing to see that 2021 has been forecasted to be a lot bigger than what we thought.. It’s what had the biggest impact to me on this 3rd quarter cc.. the numbers & margins will speak for themselves..🔋⚡️☀️🤯
*trillions
Tesla doesn not actually produces electricity, if you want to see renewable energy go to China or Europe or Egypt, they have gigantic solar/wind farms plus hydroenergy.......
Gosh Mr Warren, you do serious work. Thank you
Love the quality of the content
You were right on and we are past $500 as of today! Will be great when your other estimates come to pass!
If the green line is close, I will be ecstatic !
I was late to the table (mid May) but went all in.
greatly informative about Tesla and also insightful from the perspective of long term investing in Tesla. Thank you.
This is an incredible video. Thanks!!
We will have two more 5-1 stock splits by 2030.
I agree. Apple had just split
So hoping that’s the case. If the stock splits 5 to 1 every time the price hits $2000, my little amount of stocks will make me well over $10 million! It’s hard to believe. I am hoping that Elon keeps splitting the stock so small retail investors like me can continue to invest!
But why does everyone assume that he will continue to split ie dilute the stock??
I’m not sure if this is true or not, but I heard stock splits are bad for business as they don’t bring quality investors for the long haul.
Stock splits are important to reward workers and recruit top level employees. The higher the stock the harder it is to reward employees or give stock bonuses. I know Amazon workers making minimum wage at the time we're rewarded stock many years ago. Now Amazon can't do that since one share is now 10 percent of a low payed employees annual pay. Tesla can always buy back the shares when the company reaches maturity.
Great video, thanks!! I will start a small position and add more as Dollar Cost Average. Let's see how I will go with that.
Good for you !
I really enjoy your videos. Great analysis.
Glad you like them!
Great 'playing' numbers with you Warren! I didn't have a 'basket' til 9-30-19; bought 30 shares in Tesla. I'm 73 y o & have always been a blue-collar worker-bee. Tesla has / is making retirement fun!
subbed because of the last 8 mins, transparent.
It was not long ago a million mile Battery was a hot prospect. We got there. Now, there’s talk of the 3 million mile Battery. When battery is that efficient, cost comes down and more cash resources are plowed into production efficiencies and facilities becomes a natural outgrowth. Way to go, Elon and. team!
Cool content. Keep it up, dude.
Love your videos Warren.
Thanks 👍
Very, very optimistic projections.... I’m buying more.
Conclusion really resonated with me. Managed and traded professionally over a decade and also came from the world of diversification. Made the same mistakes with AMZN/GOOG/AAPL/MSFT of only making small bets but corrected that error on Tesla following the first Model 3 deliveries. I am not sure I see the same 40T outcome (2x current US GDP!). Regulatory approval for FSD will be many years away and the company continues to make the cars/rides more affordable for everyone (lower margins). That said, their battery/software lead and brand loyalty are unassailable. Only reason there is competition to begin with is Tesla has dragged the auto industry kicking and screaming into the 21st century.
Thanks for your comment. Why do so many people think it makes sense to compare market cap to GDP?
They're just different.
Apple's market cap is about $2T. That's bigger than Italy's GDP.
So what?
@@WarrenRedlich Also something that people have aa hard time understanding is a massive increase in GDP with amazing innovation. Africa, Asia, South America... GDP of countries in those continents are going to increase exponentially as well when they receive the benefits of Tesla's reduced cost of transportation energy and maintenance. It's like the world has been stuck using kerosene lamps, and Elon is ramping up production of LED lightbulbs. Innovation will cause exponential growth in many country's GDP.
Yes!!! Elon has mentioned that. Robotaxi massively increases the efficiency of our simulation.
Regulatory approval might be faster than it would seem. I've also always thought government would be slow to adopt it, as government is slow at everything. But the statistics and figures talk and I believe Tesla has been building the case in preparation for all the misunderstanding. Has to be at least 10 times safer than a human driver and it has to show in the statistics. Eventually they'll release a massively explosive report to the public about the numbers they already have with crash avoidance etc and it will be misunderstood. But number crunchers in the industry will be forced to allow it. This is all wishful thinking of course.
@@bbk3078 I am thinking that there is a fair chance of FSD being legal by mid 2023 when I will be getting my Cybertruck. Once the safety of FSD becomes factored into car insurance costs, it will drive ;-) car owners to FSD to save money and liability risks--nobody wants to know they were responsible for anybody's injury or death in an accident.
Good content. Subscribed! 👍
Thank you!!!! I watched it again and again....
Thank you too!
@@WarrenRedlich Thank you for the "Conclusion" here. I took your advice and changed my portfolio at the end of Oct. Wow! What a difference it made so far! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!
Sounds good- I'm ready : )
We all can see your prediction is really happening now with Tesla in S&P 500. Im a big fan of Tesla and your analysis looking from multiple angles definitely make sense. Thanks for sharing your video. Really appreciate.
best tesla content on the web!
bar none. nobody nails it like u do!
thank you for your hardwork!
i will forgive you for your profession.
For ONCE an attorney actually made me money
I’m not a fan of my profession. Mostly retired.
Trying to shoot to hold 100 (pre-split) shares in Tesla, I currently have 25 (post-split or 5 shares pre-split). Note I am a student at a university and having cash is a hard thing for me but doing doordash does help a lot.
Sending you positive vibes. Keep hustling my friend.
@@brypad15 Thank you! Very much appreciate
Keep investing ! Great job
Everything you said makes sense to me.
I am already assuming 1m cars in 2021 and 2m 2022.
They announced 840k capacity in Q3 earnings.
Add MIC MY
Add Berlin
Add Texas
They have now left competitors floundering in the dust with cell to cast frame, after they have just struggled to copy modules and packs from 2012!
Clear runway, at least for another 3-5 years.
Elon was talking of to lese Batterys from 2022 if this is solved i see a good possebility for 1mil 2021 and 2 million 2022
I agree. Fair numbers.
10 week's closer to production in 2020 for Shanghai Model Y
Berlin Grunheide Y
Austin Model Y, some Cybertruck and a few Semi.
Plus improvements to Existing US facilities.
Because of the meriad of new tech that will be introduced in Berlin and Texas, production in these factories will start out very slowly. Elon Musk tweeted about this last week, so dont be overly optimistic for 2021, but growth between 50 and 75% seems reasonable... we will see what the guidance is in January.
great content!! keep it up 👍🏽👍🏽 todays numbers are rockie numbers!! TSLA to 🌒
Great analysis. Many thanks. I’m in and holding for next decade.
elon will be the first trillionair
Not if Bernie has his way
And when he does he needs to send Bezos a participant certificate. I'd say a 2nd place award but that's to generous.
Agree
Agreed
@@jmatt98 Oh no, he will only be a multi billionaire. Oh the humanity!
TSLA is the next AAPL. However, it will grow 10 times bigger.
Great video 👍
Another great video! I just watched your robo taxi video. Since it's IPO 10 years ago, Tesla did 204x so 25x over the next 10 years shouldn't be a problem.
I'm buying more shares. Thanks for this informative info.
I think once the giga factories are done and the Cyber Truck and Plaid version get released we should see a significant increase in their stock.
Thanks again Warren, another great video and timely update to the pre-split one you shared prior. Really like how you focus primarily on the known v unknown which creates a realistic baseline to reference given all of the unknown/untapped upside to this company.
Once margins skyrocket, where will Tesla focus all their funds? Mystery to me, but they obv have already thought it through that far and it's safe to assume it will be a worthwhile investment.
Thank you!
Ha, Warren, one of my ideas for your hypothetical question about the 3 word message to give to your past self was also “buy Microsoft stock.”
Microsoft stock was flat for ten years
Great work here Warren. I bought 750 shares about a year ago. Sold 412 of them after the march bear market. Thinking the stock price would go lower if a bear market started. Still even with all this tesla progress , I can't help thinking that another opportunity to buy it should come to be. It did with all the other super stocks over the last 30 years.
Thank you for speaking clearly and explaining things so well. I really appreciate the comprehensive knowledge about Tesla. Excellent presentation. Inspires me to keep finding ways to invest more in Tesla.
Great video, clear, concise, and well presented content. You’ve earned a subscriber.
Is that you Mike?
@@WarrenRedlich Larry. mike bought the practice.
Excellent video. Recently sold positions to make Tesla my focal point. Tesla is now making up close to 60% of my portfolio. I have always tried to remain diverse in my investments but it's hard to be diverse when there is such a clear winner. It seems too good to be true...
Tesla is diverse all by itself. Hope Musk hangs in there for many more years.
You're not alone in your analysis. ARK Invest's bull case scenario has the same target price of $3,000 per share in 2024
I think ARK’s latest statement is 45% growth in stock price for the next five years. That puts them at $2500 by 2025. So Warren is a bit more bullish than even ARK Invest
Great work!
Thanks Mark!
Great observation on the potential growth 👏
Thank you 🙌
Thank you for this video. I’m heavily invested in Tesla and sometimes I’m worried that I should be taking profits since I’m up close to 800% now. Instead, I continue to buy more when I see a dip. I’m not a “numbers” or “financial guy”, I just happen to own a model 3 and had this feeling that this car will change the world. A similar feeling I had when I picked up my first iPhone but I didn’t buy Apple stock which was a foolish mistake that I don’t want to repeat this time around. Your video helps put substance and facts behind my feelings about Tesla. Much appreciated!
That’s exactly how I feel. Just like iPhone is not a phone. It’s a computer. Same, Tesla is not a car. I had a Nissan Leaf, when I got my model 3, I realized it’s not a better EV, it’s a computer
I don't think of it as taking profits. I think of it as rebalancing my investment portfolio.
I can't persuade myself to rebalance out of Tesla.
You are right. Don’t sell any for at least 5 years hold most for 10 years
You didn’t even talk much about solar and batteries for the home and utility scale. Elon said recently that Tesla’s Energy segment would eventually be bigger than EV’s. He’s usually right. I recognized Tesla’s potential in Feb., 2013, right before the first big stock run-up in May-Oct., 2013. Other than retirement mutual funds, it’s one of only 3 stocks I own. Bought in at $37.50/sh, or $7.50/sh split adjusted, several hundred shares. I hoped it would go up maybe 10x. It almost did that the first 6 months! I’ve bought several hundred shares more since - every time the FUDsters on Wall Street or the financial press talked the stock down temporarily. And never sold a share! If Tesla does what you say it will, I might be able to afford a ticket on one of Elon’s rockets! As it is, I’m getting Solar and Powerwall batteries installed on my house soon. I’ll power my Model S with sunshine! And since my Model S P100DL is a late-2016 model, I get free, unlimited Supercharging for cost-free travel anywhere. Tesla is a dream come true! What a ride this has been!
Solar and batteries are included in the spreadsheets.
"Elon said". Solid argument there! If Elon said the earth is flat every fanboy would believe him. The only thing that will be flat soon is the Tesla sufflé
The opposite of FUD is looking at everything through rose colored glasses. Both can be harmful to the wallet.
Congrats!
Knowledge full of opportunities! Great content! This is all facts for tesla!
Great Video!
This stock will make me a millionaire. It's not a matter of if, but when. Thanks for the video, so very informative. Much appreciated.
With all due respect, a million seems kinda almost meager these days.
@@choongta I’ll take it lol
No thanks, I'm good on a million. No one said ever!
Definitely when. Maybe sooner than we even think
T
The greater limiting factor is people. Exponential growth of engineers is not realistic in my opinion. I like your projections and will be thrilled with slower growth than you assume.
Very interesting and informative
thank you sir.
Great Vid... I calculated $13,250 a share in 2030 but I leaned towards the more conservative side. Your analysis was great and I hope you're right! I have almost 200 shares right now and I would retire comfortably at the age of 46 by then. lol