With the teals - I think either they pretty much all survive or most/all of them go. Curtin is obviously in trouble unless she really runs up her primary, but I can't imagine a situation where Kooyong stays teal and Goldstein goes LNP for example. I live in Wannon, Dyson is set to make a pretty big run, but last time he relied really heavily on preference flows which were exceptionally weak for the Liberals, I think Dyson probably has too much to do in such a large and older electorate to pull it off without coinciding anger at a siting Liberal government as was the case in 2022. I think Tehan gets 45% primary and hangs on with a similar margin personally
Yeah unless there's significant demographic change in Wannon I don't really see a reason why the Libs will lose that seat. 2022 was the anti libs election and an indi couldn't even win it. That said in places like Curtin now that the teal is in she will have that sophomore and incumbency bonus. I'm a believer that Independents usually stay on for a good while unless they somehow seriously betray their base which she absolutely hasn't
@@aussieselect It's debatable whether or not the teals will get sophomore advantage so much, they got exceptional funding/media exposure during their initial runs, and have been branded as more of a collective than anything else, I'm not sure the layperson really sees their local teal MP as a true independent the way someone in Indi or Clark would. The other issue here is that it's increasingly obvious that voters have a choice between backing a majority LNP government or picking someone likely to keep Labor in minority. Not to mention Labor are a key source of preferences in a couple of the teal seats - most notably Curtin where Labor had a high water mark year in WA. My base case is they pretty much all hang on, but if the swing is on only Steggall is safe, maybe Spender too
As a Hunter resident I can confirm that the populous is fairly "right wing" on social and economic issues. Newcastle and the Hunter are traditionally labour areas with the support from industry unions, but that is changing. I think labour moving more socially left puts voters off. In addition the whole of the Hunter is exploding in size and sprawl with people fleeing Sydney and Newcastle, lots of foreigners e.t.c. I typically vote to make the seat more marginal as Hunter does tend to miss out on federal funding, so we may very well see a liberal in the seat next election.
I think Labor were actually more socially and economically progressive in the Shorten era, but I guess people don't notice what they are doing when they're in opposition.
Honestly Sturt is gonna be one to watch, there’s a real Green swell there at the moment! Only need 1/10 votes to change their vote to the greens and they’ll take it on Labor preferences most likely! Not to mention the sitting MP is not beloved by the electorate
Maybe I am wrong but I feel like South Australia is bucking the anti Albo trend, it may be because of the new found riches that a lot of people there are finding themselves in (House Prices have gone up there massively in the past 2-3 years)
@@aussieselect as an SA local who just found your channel, it's because the state party is so powerful here; they're extremely good at basics and the LNP is unelectably bad. Just last month their leader had to resign because as it turns out, there was a video of him doing coke
@@Thomas-rk4rl Oh yeah I've heard about that. I actually thought last election that Labor would pick up a third seat in SA (not WA) or maybe Xenophon (Which was an epic fail of a prediction) but I now just think its unlikely the Libs will get a 3rd senate seat and it will probably be One Nation. But yeah I'm suspecting an independent running in Grey or Barker could do really well, and Sturt is definitely not safe for the Libs
@@aussieselect Sorry I wrote a novel about SA politics in response to you If it helps you feel better on the prediction, Xenophon + Patrick polled over 5% between them, there's a timeline where they agree to work together, Xenophon is a senator again and Patrick is Lord Mayor (he only lost that by about 40 votes, and without a sitting senator backing him). Sadly in 2025 nobody has anywhere near the profile they both did in 2022, so yeah ALP 2, LNP 2-3, SHY gets back in and if God really hates crom then we get a PHON senator. It wouldn't even knock Antic out because he got himself preselected higher :( I think there's the latent audience for a Lambie-style independent to take that 6th seat instead, but there just isn't anyone with the ability to capture it right now. So instead we are probably the only state to be consistently less interesting (in terms of close contests) and the only state to have less independents over the last decade in elections. As for Labor, I think they're popular and if it was Maliniskas running, I think they'd get that third seat, but I can't see the maths lining up for them federally. Sadly I haven't heard of any independents running in the regionals, though Sturt will be *interesting*. Our state independents in the lower house tend to be from Liberals that get kicked out or suspended for various things rather than teals, and unless they're Sam Duluk they tend to stick around as indies after. Our teals flopped in 2022 harder than anywhere else (based on their voters, of all people Rex Patrick probably was our best teal) unless you count Sharkie as one, and I would expect the same in 2025. As for Sturt, the Greens won't win it but it's their best hope so they'll throw all their SA resources into it, but a lot I think will depend on if the ALP decides Boothby is safe enough or not. Personally I think it is but I'm also not an ALP strategist and I have a personal dislike for Nicolle Flint for her branch stacking, so I'm hardly unbiased.
@@Thomas-rk4rl My vibe is that Boothby is pretty safe, even the MRP suggested Labor wasn't in any trouble there. One Nation have been polling quite high in SA in Newspoll and the MRP again suggest the "others" vote is quite high in places like Spence, Grey and Barker (and Mayo obviously). That, and the deflated Liberal vote I think will deliver a Senate seat for One Nation. SA is looking like the state that Labor has to worry least about unless they really want to go after Sturt, but if the Greens are making a big challenge there they might just shrug and let it go.
As someone who lives in the Curtin electorate, I’m hoping this polling is not accurate and that Chaney retains her seat. She’s been very active in the community and seems to have represented our electorate really well - as well as championed some important legislation changes from the cross bench. A return to being represented by a Liberal MP who tows their party line, rather than making a meaningful impact in Canberra, would feel like a genuine loss.
I believe all of the teals will retain their seats. All of the teal seats supported the voice, and they have not betrayed their base in any way I can see
Labor can only afford to lose 2 seats if it wants to retain majority government. Its pretty clear that there will be a swing of somewhere between 2-3% against labor and the odds of them only losing 2 seats in that environment is pretty unlikely
Their also potential seats for them to pick up. Deakin and Menzies in Vitoria (Menzies has actually become a labor lean with the redistribution). Few seats in Queensland
@@lordpolish2727Definitely agree. Labor can maybe manage to pick up one or two seats in Vic, but no way will they manage any pickup let alone a noticeable swing towards them in Queensland.
At this stage we are looking at mid to high 60s, MAYBE low 70s for coalition, and high 60s to low 70s for Labor Def one of most interesting elections in a while, the whole teal thing has changed the dynamic so much
![[LIVE] : ONE ลุมพินี 86 | คู่เอก "คมเพชร vs ชาติพยัคฆ์"](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/m3q_dRYDuU8/mqdefault.jpg)
With the teals - I think either they pretty much all survive or most/all of them go.
Curtin is obviously in trouble unless she really runs up her primary, but I can't imagine a situation where Kooyong stays teal and Goldstein goes LNP for example.
I live in Wannon, Dyson is set to make a pretty big run, but last time he relied really heavily on preference flows which were exceptionally weak for the Liberals, I think Dyson probably has too much to do in such a large and older electorate to pull it off without coinciding anger at a siting Liberal government as was the case in 2022. I think Tehan gets 45% primary and hangs on with a similar margin personally
Yeah unless there's significant demographic change in Wannon I don't really see a reason why the Libs will lose that seat. 2022 was the anti libs election and an indi couldn't even win it. That said in places like Curtin now that the teal is in she will have that sophomore and incumbency bonus. I'm a believer that Independents usually stay on for a good while unless they somehow seriously betray their base which she absolutely hasn't
@@aussieselect It's debatable whether or not the teals will get sophomore advantage so much, they got exceptional funding/media exposure during their initial runs, and have been branded as more of a collective than anything else, I'm not sure the layperson really sees their local teal MP as a true independent the way someone in Indi or Clark would.
The other issue here is that it's increasingly obvious that voters have a choice between backing a majority LNP government or picking someone likely to keep Labor in minority. Not to mention Labor are a key source of preferences in a couple of the teal seats - most notably Curtin where Labor had a high water mark year in WA.
My base case is they pretty much all hang on, but if the swing is on only Steggall is safe, maybe Spender too
Your videos are actually pretty quality mate. Subscribed.
Thanks :)
KATTER FOR IMPERATOR 2024
Based
The question is if its possible for him to pick up seats in QLD
@@aussieselect there will be a brown wave in QLD come this election, a sea of brown is coming down the Katter pipe
As a Hunter resident I can confirm that the populous is fairly "right wing" on social and economic issues. Newcastle and the Hunter are traditionally labour areas with the support from industry unions, but that is changing. I think labour moving more socially left puts voters off. In addition the whole of the Hunter is exploding in size and sprawl with people fleeing Sydney and Newcastle, lots of foreigners e.t.c.
I typically vote to make the seat more marginal as Hunter does tend to miss out on federal funding, so we may very well see a liberal in the seat next election.
I think Labor were actually more socially and economically progressive in the Shorten era, but I guess people don't notice what they are doing when they're in opposition.
@@lich5655 you should bote for bob katter
Honestly Sturt is gonna be one to watch, there’s a real Green swell there at the moment! Only need 1/10 votes to change their vote to the greens and they’ll take it on Labor preferences most likely! Not to mention the sitting MP is not beloved by the electorate
Maybe I am wrong but I feel like South Australia is bucking the anti Albo trend, it may be because of the new found riches that a lot of people there are finding themselves in (House Prices have gone up there massively in the past 2-3 years)
@@aussieselect as an SA local who just found your channel, it's because the state party is so powerful here; they're extremely good at basics and the LNP is unelectably bad. Just last month their leader had to resign because as it turns out, there was a video of him doing coke
@@Thomas-rk4rl Oh yeah I've heard about that. I actually thought last election that Labor would pick up a third seat in SA (not WA) or maybe Xenophon (Which was an epic fail of a prediction) but I now just think its unlikely the Libs will get a 3rd senate seat and it will probably be One Nation.
But yeah I'm suspecting an independent running in Grey or Barker could do really well, and Sturt is definitely not safe for the Libs
@@aussieselect Sorry I wrote a novel about SA politics in response to you
If it helps you feel better on the prediction, Xenophon + Patrick polled over 5% between them, there's a timeline where they agree to work together, Xenophon is a senator again and Patrick is Lord Mayor (he only lost that by about 40 votes, and without a sitting senator backing him). Sadly in 2025 nobody has anywhere near the profile they both did in 2022, so yeah ALP 2, LNP 2-3, SHY gets back in and if God really hates crom then we get a PHON senator. It wouldn't even knock Antic out because he got himself preselected higher :( I think there's the latent audience for a Lambie-style independent to take that 6th seat instead, but there just isn't anyone with the ability to capture it right now. So instead we are probably the only state to be consistently less interesting (in terms of close contests) and the only state to have less independents over the last decade in elections. As for Labor, I think they're popular and if it was Maliniskas running, I think they'd get that third seat, but I can't see the maths lining up for them federally.
Sadly I haven't heard of any independents running in the regionals, though Sturt will be *interesting*. Our state independents in the lower house tend to be from Liberals that get kicked out or suspended for various things rather than teals, and unless they're Sam Duluk they tend to stick around as indies after. Our teals flopped in 2022 harder than anywhere else (based on their voters, of all people Rex Patrick probably was our best teal) unless you count Sharkie as one, and I would expect the same in 2025. As for Sturt, the Greens won't win it but it's their best hope so they'll throw all their SA resources into it, but a lot I think will depend on if the ALP decides Boothby is safe enough or not. Personally I think it is but I'm also not an ALP strategist and I have a personal dislike for Nicolle Flint for her branch stacking, so I'm hardly unbiased.
@@Thomas-rk4rl My vibe is that Boothby is pretty safe, even the MRP suggested Labor wasn't in any trouble there. One Nation have been polling quite high in SA in Newspoll and the MRP again suggest the "others" vote is quite high in places like Spence, Grey and Barker (and Mayo obviously). That, and the deflated Liberal vote I think will deliver a Senate seat for One Nation.
SA is looking like the state that Labor has to worry least about unless they really want to go after Sturt, but if the Greens are making a big challenge there they might just shrug and let it go.
What website do you use for your map?
I make the program myself
As someone who lives in the Curtin electorate, I’m hoping this polling is not accurate and that Chaney retains her seat. She’s been very active in the community and seems to have represented our electorate really well - as well as championed some important legislation changes from the cross bench. A return to being represented by a Liberal MP who tows their party line, rather than making a meaningful impact in Canberra, would feel like a genuine loss.
I believe all of the teals will retain their seats. All of the teal seats supported the voice, and they have not betrayed their base in any way I can see
@@tchaifei I think the people of Curtain are crying out for a KAP representative
@@SamuelSalty 😂
If it were up to me, I’d vote in the Australian Sex Party. But I don’t think they don’t run a candidate here anymore
@@tchaifei degeneracy.
Imperator Caesar Robertos Katterus
A well put together video, but I still think you are underestimating the swing to the Coalition.
cowper wont change hands, the mp is only becoming more popular over time
Labor can only afford to lose 2 seats if it wants to retain majority government. Its pretty clear that there will be a swing of somewhere between 2-3% against labor and the odds of them only losing 2 seats in that environment is pretty unlikely
Their also potential seats for them to pick up. Deakin and Menzies in Vitoria (Menzies has actually become a labor lean with the redistribution). Few seats in Queensland
Yes minority government looks very likely for Labor
@@Amazing41000nah labor are polling bad in QLD, would be shocked if they win anything there, although Vic is possible
@lordpolish2727 That's a good thing how good would it be if the Laborgreens lose in Victoria
@@lordpolish2727Definitely agree. Labor can maybe manage to pick up one or two seats in Vic, but no way will they manage any pickup let alone a noticeable swing towards them in Queensland.
If these sort of numbers hold, the next parliament would be so unstable, it would be lucky to last 18 months.
woah new channel icon
I thought it was time after more than 5 years.. haha
Hi do you have a website for your electoral map? I use YAPMS but it doesn’t label the seat names and doesn’t have new redistributions.
I use my own program
Where’s the universal swing to Lidia Thorpe? This is wrong!!
At this stage we are looking at mid to high 60s, MAYBE low 70s for coalition, and high 60s to low 70s for Labor
Def one of most interesting elections in a while, the whole teal thing has changed the dynamic so much
I think this will be the MOST unpredictable election this century