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Aussies Elect
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 9 ม.ค. 2019
2024 Queensland State Election | The Aftermath
I look at the current results for the Queensland election and how it compared to what people expected.
มุมมอง: 5 257
วีดีโอ
2024 Australian Capital Territory Election | Final Results Discussion + Predictions Analysis
มุมมอง 1.2K14 วันที่ผ่านมา
We'll be live streaming the QLD election tonight on Sormon: www.youtube.com/@UC3nM74rRD-afqMDUtrh_8-w Starting at 6:30 PM AEST, or 7:30 PM AEDT
2024 Queensland State Election FINAL Prediction + Live Stream Announcement
มุมมอง 3.6K14 วันที่ผ่านมา
Watch the livestream of our election analysis at 6:30pm AEST aka NSW/VIC/TAS time (7:30pm AEDT aka QLD time) Sat 26th October on www.youtube.com/@UC3nM74rRD-afqMDUtrh_8-w Yes, I do sometimes call the "LNP" the "Coalition", sue me 😭
2024 Australian Capital Territory Election Discussion, Prediction & Live Stream Preview w/@Sormon
มุมมอง 68721 วันที่ผ่านมา
*Recorded on Thursday 17/10/2024 Watch our live stream at 7pm AEDT on Sormon: th-cam.com/channels/3nM74rRD-afqMDUtrh_8-w.html Sormon's Interview with Andrew Barr: th-cam.com/video/nBvgItdFvRY/w-d-xo.html
Australian Federal Politics | Should Albanese trigger a Double Dissolution Election?
มุมมอง 2.8K28 วันที่ผ่านมา
We look at if Albo should trigger a double dissolution election, electing the whole of the Australian Senate at once; or should just wait and do a regular half senate election.
2024 Queensland State Election Prediction | 15 Days Out w/PAC
มุมมอง 3.6Kหลายเดือนก่อน
Check out PAC's blog here: auselections.blogspot.com/2024/09/pac-elections-australia-analysis-of.html Featured in this video: www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/ www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2024qld/regular
Australian Federal Politics | A look at Redbridge's August 2024 MRP Survey
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Covering a model released a week ago which shows the Labor Party looking down the barrel of minority government
Next Australian Federal Election Prediction (Sept 2024)
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I'm finally back to talk about the next Federal Election, with a new "darkmode" look for my election program. Enjoy!
2024 Northern Territory Election Preview + Live Stream Announcement
มุมมอง 5252 หลายเดือนก่อน
Will be live streaming from 6:30pm AEST tomorrow (24/08/2024) here: www.youtube.com/@SormonAusPol/
2024 Tasmanian State Election | Partial Results Analysis
มุมมอง 2427 หลายเดือนก่อน
The seats are not yet finalised but we have a reasonably clear view of how this election is turning out, with a Liberal Minority government which probably wont last very long...
2024 Tasmanian State Election Prediction | One Week Out
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I'll be doing a live stream with Sormon on his channel next Saturday. Subscribe here: www.youtube.com/@SormonAusPol
How UK Labour may reform the House of Lords (And why it probably wont happen)
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How UK Labour may reform the House of Lords (And why it probably wont happen)
A look at the Final 2023 New Zealand Election Results
มุมมอง 234ปีที่แล้ว
Bit of a departure to have a little look at the full results coming out from last month's New Zealand's election
Next Australian Federal Election Senate Prediction (October 2023)
มุมมอง 438ปีที่แล้ว
A midterm prediction for the Senate for the next Australian Federal Election (Probably 2025)
Next Australian Federal Election Midterm Polls & Predictions
มุมมอง 405ปีที่แล้ว
This was recorded last night. Thoughts on the Senate will come soon
Australian Indigenous Voice Referendum Aftermath Discussion w/Sormon
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Australian Indigenous Voice Referendum Aftermath Discussion w/Sormon
Voice to Parliament Referendum Polls Analysis (4 days to go) + Bonus New Zealand Thoughts
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Voice to Parliament Referendum Polls Analysis (4 days to go) Bonus New Zealand Thoughts
Victorian Election 2022 Prediction & Analysis (With Doomer)
มุมมอง 406ปีที่แล้ว
Victorian Election 2022 Prediction & Analysis (With Doomer)
Australian 2022 Federal Election | MEGA POST-ANALYSIS (Part 1)
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Australian 2022 Federal Election | MEGA POST-ANALYSIS (Part 1)
Australian 2022 Federal Election | FINAL PREDICTION
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Australian 2022 Federal Election | FINAL PREDICTION
Announcement | 2022 Australian Election Discussion Live Stream Thursday 19th May 2022 6pm AEST
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Announcement | 2022 Australian Election Discussion Live Stream Thursday 19th May 2022 6pm AEST
Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction: Less than a week left! (May 15 2022)
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Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction: Less than a week left! (May 15 2022)
Australian 2022 Federal Election: MRP Results & Labor's impending victory
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Australian 2022 Federal Election: MRP Results & Labor's impending victory
Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction - 2 Weeks to go! (May 7, 2022)
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Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction - 2 Weeks to go! (May 7, 2022)
Australian Federal Election 2022: How the Coalition can still win
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Australian Federal Election 2022: How the Coalition can still win
Australian Federal Election 2022: Betting Odds, Key Seats & Swings
มุมมอง 1992 ปีที่แล้ว
Australian Federal Election 2022: Betting Odds, Key Seats & Swings
Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction (April 23 2022)
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Australian 2022 Federal Election Prediction (April 23 2022)
2022 South Australian State Election | The Aftermath
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2022 South Australian State Election | The Aftermath
South Australian 2022 State Election: Betting Odds & Other Updates
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South Australian 2022 State Election: Betting Odds & Other Updates
2022 South Australian Election Prediction & Analysis w/ Sormon | February 2022
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2022 South Australian Election Prediction & Analysis w/ Sormon | February 2022
Any interesting AU elections coming up this year? Enjoy your insights. I was sort of hoping you'd have a stab at predicting the U.S. election but with a channel name of "Aussies Elect" I knew it was a long shot lol
i think this labour goverment is the worst goverment i have ever seen i won't vote for them but im not keen to vote so LNP either it's minors for me
I have lived in Bradfield for a decade. It is definitely going to flip to independent. We have had a huge boom in the Asian population so that will undermine Fletchers popularity
This is why I don't like preference voting. Who you vote for should get your vote. One vote per citizen. That's all we need.
Do you think Payman would regain her senate seat in WA after leaving Labor, or it wouldn’t make much difference? /gen
Its really tricky to say with limited polling but it would be at the expense of a 5th Labor senator
What is the chance of a double dissolution happening?
30/10/24 ---- 77% Counted and LNP has already 49 Seat and could get 50 or 51 Seats !!!! Labor has been flushed into theToilet!!!!
Pfff from one controlled opposition to another controlled opposition. They'll pretend to improve a few things but they're all a bunch of pedos behind it all
You are jumping all over the place. Its difficult to follow.
Mih-RAN-ee. Mirani. Mackay, rhymes with pie.
What's with this narrative that this was close or disappointing? Who thought the LNP would get more than 53 seats?
It won't make any difference how you voted because the powers that be decided it was the Liberals turn again after the very bad performance of labour for 12 or so years. If you think your votes count with preferential and two party preferred counting, you are very mistaken. They can only ever produce a result of the LibLab or LabLib as ordered by the Freemasons NWO WEF WHO UN Charles Schwab unelected organisation. They are not even letting votes go to other parties now as they have realized that we can do nothing to change anything.
The ABC election coverage was embarrassing to watch them conclude that the LNP were not able to form a majority govt with only 20% of the votes counted in some electorates. It was amazing to me that it wasn't obvious to election experts that the early voting ballots would be swinging the votes of many seats toward the LNP. I remember around 8 or 9 o'clock the panel basically laughed at the analyst on the left (can't remember the name) when he suggested that it was still very possible that the LNP would form a majority. Even now it's looking like it will be a bigger majority than QLD Labor have had in their 3-term tenure.
Mackay rhymes with pie. Bundaberg is probably the biggest surprise.
Nothing had changed the blue team voted with the red team for the last four years and we still have a dictatorship with no upper house so they can do what they want hopefully the illegal corporation masquerading as a quasi governments days are numbered we will know next week.
It is clear that Labor pumped all the funding into South East Qld and neglected the rest.
There is no aftermath but a win by the LNP end of story. People have had enough of greens and Labor
From an outsider looking in, with nothing but insanely good statistics coming from what Labor have seemed to have done (I say this as to not change judgement or ask for a biased opinion), why exactly is that not being looked at as good? Money back on energy during CoL concerns, 50pc transport, insanely good levels of investment and the lowest unemployment of all aussie states, youth crime actually gone down - what's putting you off?
@@Cypher7412 Youth Crime rates particularly in North QLD were skyrocketing, as was the housing, cost of living and health crises. Also, 50pc transport only benefits people in the city, not the regions, which is a typical move from Labor to gain cheap support
@@dionmacdonald3369 Considering its 'Labor' for Aussies, are you sure you are one? Again, nothing valuable was said which was what I asked for
@@Eamon_QS Thanks for replying. On the cost of living and health issue, that's more of an national + international issue though, no? The support for energy relief at least helps with cost of living on that front. No price gauging from energy companies, fuel too? I can understand the transport one if it was more central. Would the price cap and state-owned petrol stations not've incentivised regionals?
@CypherNugget oh poor baby, just shit it and yes I am a Australia 🇦🇺
Rockhampton voter here. We have had only Labor since becoming an electorate in the 1950's. I assumed this would continue, but am happy to have Donna Kirkland win for the LNP. The Labor party have been fairly useless here, so it was time for change. Also, its been funny to see people not from Queensland melt down about the LNP winning. They dont seem to understand the dissatisfaction we have had with Labour here.
From an outsider looking in, with nothing but insanely good statistics coming from what Labor have seemed to have done (I say this as to not change judgement or ask for a biased opinion), why exactly is that not being looked at as good? Money back on energy during CoL concerns, 50pc transport, insanely good levels of investment and the lowest unemployment of all aussie states, youth crime actually gone down - what's putting you off?
After Palaszczuk only a miracle could save Labor thanks to her personal disapproval rating. I have to admit this was fairly earned by her, and people weren't going to forget it. But LNP's numbers started to tank close to election once Christofooly started to be exposed, pity so many people voted early.
@@item6931 pity Labour is shit
@@dionmacdonald3369 😂😂😂
Mate I really think you should use. SHP file map as it would be much easier to read and less confusing, when we only see tiny squares on the seats its hard to see.
The One Nation preference vote in Mirani will put Stephen Andrew over the line. One nation stabbed him in the back, and he gets reelected under a different party.
Mulgrave probably swung so hard because the popular MP Curtis Pitt (who took over from his father Warren to hold this seat for 15 years) retired, and didn't publicly endorse the new Labor candidate due to factional differences. The new Labor candidate also didn't have much time to campaign, and doesn't seem to live in the electorate.
I used to live in ipswich. Now live overseas. But what happened there?
I'm pretty sure they kept their Labor candidate in place.
@@DoubtingThomas333 okay, thanks for answering. Nothing much of a statewide change in the voting movements since i left. Are they still running two people per district? I mean the liberal party and the country party AND PASSING THEIR PREFERENCES TO EACH OTHER?
Kind of unrelated but he looks like Assad but Australian, to me at least
1:14 Capalaba is basically becoming a richo area as Redlands population spills over into it (I watched it happening for the last 2 years). I would expect it to be LNP pretty regularly for the foreseeable future.
Mulgrave could technically still be won by the Katter's, only about 50% of people there voted 1 for a major party, and if enough people who voted third party preference the KAP over any of the majors then the KAP could get ahead of the ALP and win the seat on preferences.
I don't know if the Greens (and One Nation) did BADLY in terms of overall results, but their votes really seem to have spread out into entirely useless areas. A combined 17% of the vote and barely one seat between them, it's pretty awful from the minor parties considering that last time it got them three. I do agree with you that there's a limited reason to vote Greens when Labor is adopting similar measures, which is good for Greens voters (yay, the policies they like) but bad for the party itself (WTF do you campaign on now?)
Greens were campaigning for hard drugs being legalized, setting grocery and rent prices and less police. The most stupid thing I ever heard 😅
@@RefurbIshment-z7l Cannabis is not a hard drug. It comes with fewer risks than both alcohol and tobacco. They want to increase criminal penalties on for driving under the influence of alcohol and/or other drugs at levels that impair cognitive or psychomotor skills, maintain criminal penalties for drug dealers while introducing counseling and treatment and education for personal users of illicit drugs rather than criminal penalties and increase the availability of harm reduction programs including drug-substitution therapy, medically supervised injecting rooms, and widely accessible supply of clean needles, including in prisons. Nowhere do they call for legalization of hard drugs. They want to cap rent increases yes, personally I don't agree with the policy either for a multitude of reasons. They want to cap the prices of 30 essential grocery items, also prevent anti competitive practices by supermarkets such as land banking and break up the duopoly between Coles and Woolies. Not bad ideas and I've never seen them calling for less police. They've instead been calling for additional training and the establishment of an independent body for the investigation of corruption within the Queensland Police Service (QPS). You should be more discerning in what you read mate.
That's what the upper house is supposed to be there for
LOL bye bye Greens
So good they lost, they should be outlawed give how un-Australian their values are.
Christofooly nearly lost the unlosable election. When he was evasive about Trumpian abortion laws, then backpedalled on his pledge to resign if crime didn't fall, the numbers started to crash for him. If the election was held a week later he may well have lost.
No he didnt
@@edthebumblingfool Didn't what? Nearly lose? Have you seen the results? He very nearly had to take the knee to KAP. If that isn't losing I don't know what is lol
@@item6931how many seats is nearly
@@thetrashman3129 The difference between number of seats won (48) and the number of seats that would force a minority government (46)
@@item6931 They're going to end up with more than 48
very happy i found this channel. Aussie election analysis content is very thin on the ground so i'm glad i stumbled across this channel almost by accident. keep up the good work.
@@iamseamonkey6688 no accident. You were fed it by Google's algorithm
what i saw of the queensland green campaign this election, at least online, was mostly whining about Labor "stealing their policies" etc, almost acting as if they didn't want them to be implemented. i have to wonder if thats what their ground game was like too, for them to have gone so backward in their target seats. in terms of federal implications of this election, i think they are few and far between. the main one definitely being that albo needs to stop the small target centrism and actually put a bold plan forward next year if he wants the labor malaise to stop
I was an active volunteer in the greens campaign this election so i can give one possible answer to your question. The ground campaigns are highly targeted towards the circumstances of each electorate so each campaign is different. In general though, our stance was that the greens are quite happy to see Labor adopting greens policies when the greens are putting pressure on them. It is a little frustrating that the Greens never get any credit for it even though we often campaign for it for years before labor actually adopts it, but at the end of the day if Labor "steals" a greens policy then that means we're getting results and therefore that's a victory. The real issue we have with Labor "stealing our policies" is that they usually only do a half-hearted version of what we want. I'll give three examples from this campaign. First, The Greens have been advocating for free public transport since 2020. Labor announced 50c fares in 2024 which is great but it still isn't free and still uses that private ticketing system which ends up making 50c fares more expensive than making public transport free altogether. Second, The Greens proposed a bill for a free breakfast and lunch program for all primary and high schools in 2021, and Labor voted against it. Just a few weeks ago, that same Labor government promised a free lunch program (but not breakfast) for all primary schools (but not high schools). and finally third, part of the Greens platform for this election was to establish 200 new free GP clinics. a few weeks before the election Labor promised to build 50 free GP clinics. The pattern should be pretty clear now. The Greens find this very annoying because it's an admission from Labor that the Greens policies are possible to implement, but for some reason they refuse to go all the way. Hope that addresses your concerns. Feel free to ask if you've got any other questions. TL;DR the greens actually kind of like it when Labor steals our policies. We just wish they'd copy the whole thing instead of only doing half-measures
@iamseamonkey6688 I don't mean to offend you in any way, whilst I agree that Labor is essentially stealing greens policies, I guess the measures in which Labor proposed seemed more feasible to me. Especially given they were riding on additional borrowings (excluding 50c fares). So I guess my advice is that greens need to "undersell" policies, because you run the risk of, as is the current case, of being seen as unrealistic, irrespective of if it is feasible on paper.
@@CroatiansR6 I do understand this argument and it's probably the most common objection people have to voting greens. My response would be that a major goal of the Greens, which I believe is just as if not more important than winning votes, is about raising people's expectations of what is possible. The two major parties often promise very little in the way of change, often arguing from the viewpoint of practicality or feasibility or fear of losing votes for being bold, and there can be merit to that in many cases, but it tends to lead to a feedback loop where the major parties are constantly telling their voters not to expect anything from them which then allows them to get away with not doing anything substantial to solve the issues facing ordinary Australians. Because of this, the Greens choose a platform that is by design quite ambitious compared to what either of the major parties is offering. They usually don't promise anything truly outlandish. Almost everything the Greens propose is theoretically doable, it would just require more effort and bravery from the major parties to implement than they are otherwise used to. It shows people that there is an alternative to the way things are and it gets people talking. While they rarely get everything they want, It usually works in the long term. When you look at a lot of the progressive reforms that have happened over the last decade or two, such as same sex marriage, the NDIS, and more recent things like the 50c fares, you'll find that the Greens were often years ahead of the curve, having been called unrealistic or crazy by the major parties until all of a sudden, when the pressure gets too high, they pivot and adopt it as their own. So that's why the Greens always promise a more ambitious platform than Labor or the LNP. It's not about winning votes, it's about affecting change. This is the experience of progressive reform in this country. It always seems impossible until it suddenly isn't.
@iamseamonkey6688 greens are insane nut jobs they need to go for good, and Labour is all most just as bad
@@iamseamonkey6688 It's good that they don't they've let enough immigrants in leading to the worst possible housing crisis in Australia. Under the greens would look like Africa. Will never understand how young people vote for people that are ruining the "Australian Dream" of home ownership and making rents go up.
The good news is that once Council election in Queensland comes back around they’ll be a protest vote against the LNP
And I think people have sufficiently focused and used their baseball bats, taking out their anger at a party called Labor and because this result wasn't too bad it points to Labor's position in the Federal Election looking not too bad
This is just the start of LNP victory's
That will never happen because majority of people are not stupid like you to vote Labor again. You are triggered and your thugs lost, maybe you should move to Victoria or ACT and leave us here to run the state how we want.
this aged poorly
How? I predicted moderate LNP majority and that was the result.
You are not a queenslander for sure, if you are, get another job
I predicted 50 and LNP are looking like getting 52 or 53. Wasnt far off.
Huh. ALP lost Mackay. For legit the first time ever.
Fiona Carrick is a crap candidate, and more right wing than you think.
Wasn't that interesting in terms of forming government, but was kind of interesting in terms of seat changes. Even though Lab/Lib primary votes both dropped, they maintained their seats, while it was the Greens who ended up losing two to independents. Is this because of the ACT's voting system (greens just had narrower margin), or indicative of something going on with preference flows? You'd probably know better than me
The Greens lost seats in Murrumbidgee and Kurrajong For Murrumbidgee, although Labor lost 2.9% of the vote compared to the Greens' 2.4%, Labor's share of the overall primary remained at 33.2%, which is enough to earn two seats, along with the Liberals. The Greens lost their only seat due to having less votes than Fiona Carrick. For Kurrajong, the Greens were hit in the vote share harder than Labor and Liberals combined. This reduced their seat share from 2 to 1.
I'm staggered at the LNP's way in how they reduced their lead from 58.5/41.5 in some polls to now 51/49.
There were clearly a couple outlier polls. Most polls were around 55/45 split which is almost bang on at the moment.
You said it right ca pa la ba. Not ca pa laa baa 😂
Hoping for a Labor upset, but preparing for a LNP win. I reckon the best case scenario for Miles is a LNP minority gov that lasts one term like Newman did. Still crossing my fingers though
LABOR are too GAY
I hope the LNP win in a landslide . Labor are horrible crap and crazy
Assuming you aren’t a child already, you have the mentality of one.
Man, you really showed them.. You got them good.
@@sanitygone-l9y he even emphasised 'gay' by putting it in all caps he really thought he did something clever 😭 like ok grandpa
@@HermanDinkins How many liberals does it take to change a light bulb? None, they’re too busy changing their gender 😂😂😂😂.
Copium.
Greens will win 80 seats, trust me
💀
God I hope not they are crazy
I think it looks like an LNP victory today, possibly a minority government. The LNP's strategy has been a "small target" approach, very similar to the ALP's strategy in the last federal election. I can’t count how many times I’ve seen them waving that small pamphlet around, yet I have no idea what their policies are beyond "crime is bad." They’ve been running the same ads heavily on TH-cam, which has become very annoying to watch a couple of times per video. The general consensus in the media has been that Miles has run a stronger campaign, which is reflected in the polls. If he wins, he’ll be lauded as a "miracle man." If he loses (which seems likely), he’ll have at least given them a shot next time around. I'm a bit concerned about what comes next. Last time, my wife lost her potential job as a teacher's assistant. She had just finished her course when Campbell Newman was laying off teachers-around 500 at the time, I think-so I'm not a fan. The mining lobby has been going hard against the ALP for a while, especially targeting the mining super tax, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s scrapped first. This would leave a huge hole in the budget, so I expect we’ll see plenty of cuts ahead.
I think the LNP's style is that they'll just go into debt and then somehow blame Labor.
Campbell Newman was 12 years ago. Ive been in Govt most of the time since, and the State Govt orgs won't do things because 'Campbell Newman did xyz 12 years ago'. People need to let that shit go and move on.
You pronounce so many Queensland places wrong, its Mack-EYE not Mack-Aye and its PUM-ISS-Stone not PEW-MISS-stone Capalaba - KahPal-LA-BA not cappa-laaba lmao
My apologies.
Generally polls in Australia have been pretty good, except for the last few that have completely misread the situation. Really don't see Labor as having much of a chance in this election, hopefully the protest vote goes Green, but who can tell. Once again first time voters may see a major move to independents and minor parties over the traditional big two. However, if anger in Queensland over various issues Labor got completely wrong turns into votes a Blue Wash could be on the cards outside South East Queensland. Be an interesting election regardless, good luck to all parties and their candidates, excluding the One Nation lunatics. Final question, where the hell did the Labor party dragged up their new leader, complete charisma by-pass right there.
I'm surprised that Miles is as popular as he is when I don't think he really has much charisma. If there were more notable independents running I would agree with you about an anti major party surge, but unfortunately the best we'll get is a few KAPs elected around Townsville, a possible Independent in Rockhampton and James Ashby in Keppel.
@@aussieselect Miles is very popular with the younger voter base, especially because of his social media campaigning.
@@aussieselectmaybe but he comes across as an honest person … unlike the other dude.
Looking at your map - I’m curious why you have Moggill - one of the LNP’s safest Brisbane seats historically as a ALP gain?
It's a toss-up between Labor and Greens, whichever comes second on primary votes will likely win on preferences.
Ooops, that was a mistake. Thanks for noticing.
Interestingly safe Liberal seats in Urban Areas are moving towards the Teals or the Labor Party. But in rural areas it's towards the Liberals/Nationals
We don't have Teals up here mate
@@punishedpinecone4772 It's going to happen next election.
What is your home state?
New South Wales, although I've lived in SA for a bit as well
Look regardless of what you think a second house just being a rubber stamp is a good thing to have to keep a far right government in check but Queensland only has one house I fear the worst that the LNP may try to bring back some Joh Bjelke-Petersen's laws
Far right, what crap it's the Far left who are evil
Katter is winning everything bro what are you talking about?? Joh Bjelke-Peterson has nothing on what Katter is about to see
KAP sweep, let there be a thousand blossoms bloom!
This is such an LNP bias like seriously.
I am actually not right wing at all lol
"wait you don't have ALP winning every single seat in your prediction? you must be a far-right fascist!"
He is not right wing but I am
HAH lmao if anything this is slightly bias towards labor