Gwynne Dyer -- Geopolitics in a Hotter World
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 มิ.ย. 2024
- Webcast sponsored by the Irving K. Barber Learning Centre, Dyer has worked as a freelance journalist, columnist, broadcaster and lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years, but he was originally trained as an historian. He received degrees from Canadian, American and British universities, finishing with a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London .
and his prediction on grain prices was pretty much spot on
Jesus, this video touches on so many important aspects of climate change. Watching it 12 years later and you can see it all playing out.
I don't know why but he spoke at my high school and was really interesting. He must have dumbed everything down enough because he got 8th graders to shut up. Later I learned who he was and it's amazing to hear him again.
Where are my 2020 bros at? Surfs up for the Kali Yuga!
🤙😭
This is a harsh lecture. Wait, 2010? Um, you mean we have learned nothing since then?!
Hey Are You Ok
@@iblouidlar4761 no ... the kids are not ok lol
2021 here, ahh the 2010s were such hopeful times! Our doom was not yet sealed.
Can't believe this has only had 10K views! - should be required in schools. Wake up Canada!
Mr. Dyer was required reading in my Poli-sci courses at King's College in London, ON (where he attended). Watch his 1983 documentary "War". It is dated now, but excellent.
One of rare gems, with which you can violently disagree, but still respect style and work put into making that happen. Clear narration of thought and word.
March 5th, 2021 - 418.21 ppm carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
I think we're gonna make it to 450 before 2060.
390ppm atmospheric CO2 when the talk was held, 418.56ppm now.
did he just predict the current refugee crisis.
+MrVinnyable1 And trumpy's wall
The first tiny wave of the ginormous, soul crushing crisis to come
and brexit
James Burke did similar predictions in After the Warming back in 1989. including the evacuation of New Orleans and the Australians firing on refugees.
Yes.
It is suprisingly adequate to the situation in 2023.. Why so low interest in tis lecture, it is a great one.
This is a superb talk. Most impressive is the last half hour of Q & A.
Here, let me fix that for you:
Soon you will understand, when the experience outweighs the doubt.
11 years later and nobody has done a god damn thing. We're fucked.
This has entirely too few views, let's start sending this to people. We need blunt facts and statements about climate change in the public consciousness now.
He just predicted the Arab Spring
Five years of drought in the levant led to mass migrations into the cities by poor farmers when their marginal lands dried and their crops failed. So you had millions of poor people flooding the cities, with few skills, to find there weren't jobs for them in damascus or cairo or tunis.
Until 2010, regional governments were able to buy grain on the international market in order to subsidize grain prices for the poor fellahin. Suddenly, Russia loses half of its crop and imposes export bans to protect its own population and keep prices in check.
Suddenly, the millions of poor migrants in cities like Cairo and Damascus could no longer afford bread without subsidies, and they take to the streets in protest.
In Egypt, the military threw their lot in with the tahrir square crowd simply to get rid of mubarak. Once they'd gotten rid of Mubarak, they turned on the protesters and took power back for themselves.
In Syria, it split. Ten years later, Syria is a failed state with ruined cities and fighting causing mass refugee exodus to the surrounding countries, some of them making it to Europe *When Turkey wants them to*.
Dyer writes excellent articles weekly on international affairs for the Japan Times.
Japan times and elsewhere, he's been writing such excellent work for at least forty years. I first found his writing in the Montreal Gazette in 1981, and he'd been a contributing columnist for a while before that.
it is now 2016 and this is frighteningly prescient.
Except the geoengineering part. Solar Radiation Management, haven't heard anything on it and its 2017
... and even more so, from 2018! It's like being if free fall from the 100thfloor. Only one way this is gonna end. All we're arguing is time, and if the clothing will slightly slow things.
Sally K wait until you watch this from 2018. Wish I was back in 2016 with your comment
GustavMagnus read Ipcc AR5 geo engineering is very popular
they havent gotten to the point of sealing off southern europe yet, i dunno how the hell they can manage that
I liked this video many many years ago. Interesting how it has very little views. Much has come true. He predicted drying for agriculture, which has happened, in some places theres flooding. Either way, its no good for ag. Im sort of interested in midwest ag in how farms are going under from either trade with china (soy beans) flooding along the mississippi (climate change and monoculture) or just the failing of a dairy farm because of the market. Less grain to feed the cows might lead to less fast food supply? Maybe not. Theres so much being made and there still a huge demand for burgers, ice cream, cheese, etc. its odd that the way we farm is hurting our ability to farm. We are creating a dustbowl esque scenario but global and much much more complex. When is the breaking point? Will we see an increase in fast food sale from lower grain production? Will we ever have an inability to supply the chicken, pork, and beef for americans huge demand? Corn was pretty low this year in wisconsin.
He came to my school and gave this same lecture. Was really interesting!
Great presentation
I hate the fact that this has only had 716 views. Thanks for posting!
"Point of no return is 450ppm CO2, We're at 390 ppm CO2 now." - 2018, we're at 410ppm CO2.... 17:00
I'm writing just after midnight, Sunday Sept 01, 2019... and the truth isn't remotely that benign.
Actually, Saturday afternoon's measurement in LA was 447ppm when I checked. Planetary average wasn't even close to that yet (something like 404, I think),... but 450+ planetary average is coming within the next decade.
What does that translate to foryour regional climate? Beats the fuck outta ME... but it *does* mean that no "region" on the planet will escape heat-waves and/or deep freezes that no-one alive today has ever experienced.
Oceanfront property? Don't make me LAUGH!!!
2020 and it's up to 416
Also with the pandemic planes are grounded, expect grain harvests to collapse as temps soar past plus 2 degrees, at which point we cant grow grain at scale
*#GeorgiaHolodomor2021*
2021 reporting in and it's 419ppm as of Feb 4th (from co2.earth NOAA MLA). Global lockdowns continue but expected to ease due to vaccine.
God bless u n ur family, Mr Gwynne Dyer, I m ur Fan on Cyprus Mail NP. Ur all articles have been changing the Mindset of the Rulers, Politicians, Officials and the general public in the World. Therefore I request here to write about the Prisons in Brazil where many incidents happen frequently bcz of congestion in the ward, n Barracks. I dont think Brazil does not have land to build big prisons in open areas n big Barracks. Criminals r to punish bcz they r dangerous in Society but not kill like this n praise the Lord .
So... for as long as I can remember, I've looked forward to being a Dad someday. I've been feeling a little self-pressure, given that at this point I'm 3 years older than my parents were when they had me (their first kid). But after this video...
...I'm not in nearly as big a hurry to bring children into this world.
my kid talks about being a cyborg when he grows up all the time, wanting to live forever. He knows about climate change, but I'm not sure he understand HOW bad it's going to be.
I'm afraid to tell him.
Devin Faux yes.. I had wanted to be a dad as well. But everyday I realise this world is very post-apocalyptic and less suitable for children than a ball pit full of razors
Adopt then. There are so many children who have no parents. I do consider adoption but at the same time want to have my own children.
This is one of those 'damned if you do, damned if yu don't' things. What if the kid you refrained from having would have been the only person to have a crucial insight into at least shifting public opinion significantly on this? Or some crucial technical insight? I say, take a deep breath and have the kid. Worst thing, he damns you for doing so. Best - he's a real help to oots of people!
david wright But at the same time the kid could be a mass serial killer.
Oh man, please re-dub or clean up the audio of the beginning of the Q&A section. Between the muffled audio and bad automatic closed captioning most of it is indecipherable.
But this is an important talk, that everyone should have heard 10 years ago when it happened.
But it’s urgent that they hear it now.
If you’re looking away from the video just imagine David letterman doing this presentation. Dude sounds just like him!
Letterman was a pervey moron. Just watch his interview with goalkeeper Manon Rhiome. His fawning flirtation was sickening.
The problem in all of this is going back to the fundamental: Engergy, engergy &.. wait for it... Energy...
What ever you do, you need to make sure that you do not use fossil fuel in order to generate the energy to design, build & maintain these geo-engineering systems.
That is the real challenge.
Interesting to watch this from 8 years later - 2018. All the bad news has continued to worsen; none of the good appears even on the ropes. It's KO'd. Yes, geoengineering might buy us some time - to do the things we've spent another 8 years not doing. Nor will we. All of which, even before Trump and what will be his legacy - which greatly outlast him in legislative and administrative ways.Our - the North's - kids will be ok. Grandkids? Not so much. Beyond them? Pick you favorite armageddon.
My next read, for sure.
Except it's even worse than this, because of what we're now seeing with the destabilization of the jet stream, and how sticky weather patterns can turn relatively mild changes catastrophic. Back then we thought there would be a smooth effect starting at the equator and moving north, but we now know that was fantasy, nowhere is safe. Added on to that are massive die-offs and loss of biodiversity, and running out of key resources that would make these geo-engineering plans inoperable... welp, that's all folks! Smoke'm while you gottem!
ooooh goodie and the good news just keeps on coming... crys
what the hell happened to the camera setup when the Q&A started...
Once the Q&A starts, my tip is to skip ahead to 1:08:45, the camera switches and you can hear what theyre saying again
i wish the majority realized how true that is.
j
this guy does seriously good work.
... and he's been doing it for nearly 50 years. Pay attention to him.
52:35 Oh My God, he actually went there.
Anyone seen Animatrix? LOL.
what he says ~ 13 about the built in delay in the IPCC reports is true of academia generally as well, hence many of the experts are lagging lagging lagging. Wasdell, Hanson, Schneider, and some others are stepping forward, but they are lone voices.
How long has he had that jacket? :P
If he was prettier he could do a Ted Talk.
He dosent speak in enough psudo intellectual babble to do a Ted talk.
He looks like he likes to drink regularly, red faced, extra weight, little exercise due to hangovers and feeling shitty, poor diet subsequently. No wonder, when I read about environmental collapse all I want to do is reach for the scotch.
Was that a pretty bad remark or a bad pretty remark?
His name says it all.
This aged well.
Crop failure is apparently occurring in Afghanistan as well
This guy is super smart, he knows what I know!
10 years ago
Well damn
Rainfall is up and down all over the place, and the changing weather patterns are having a notable effect on grain production, water flows, salinity, and the greater economy. Perth is probably going to be in real trouble in a decade or so, they have little rainfall and the geography of Western Australia doesn't lend itself to water storage solutions at all. But it doesn't change the fact that this lecture claims a complete halt in grain exports since the late 2000s, which is utterly false.
and children unborn will see us with scorn...
Crutzen actually threw his hands in the air and said were fucked. Be interesting to hear/read a revision to his 2008 book Climate Wars.
33:52
1:21:00
Andrew Yang running for president in America is advocating that we need to fund geoengineering research . the only candidate to do so. The time has come
Michael Lai of course big tech money have been lobbying for this
Listen to him, is like listen to a guy from the future.
i was correct when i said expence. but thanks for the added demension. i spell for crap. most who know me , know this is true. doesn't change the facts. of which i am correct about.
with a light heart i do not really feel, again ty for at least remaining kind in your discourse.
j
watch it at 1.5 speed for Jeebus sake
Thank god I always read the comments. Hero of this thread
soon you will understand, when the expence out ways the doubt.
j
This man should be allowed an hour a week to explain all this to the idiots in this country that think Republicans are right.
+Kapitainleutnant *sigh* It's become a pretty standard trollism to bash Republicans for darn near anything. To which I must reply, who else is there? Consider this, please:
Greatest Promises Kept by Obama:
1.
...
If you have a good candidate, go for it. Just, please, don't let them keep their emails on a home email server, and don't ask them what on earth to do with an embassy attack in Benghazi.
In other words, neither party has a good candidate in my view. Feel free to disagree with me, I don't mind.
-- thanks,
D
who your president is is a hell of a lot less important than who the members of congress are (state and federal), and thats where the republicans do their real damage.
@bobthefishmonger Is this from personal/professional experience, or just the opinion of one guy in a room typing to himself? Easy to have convictions when nothing in riding on their accuracy, no?
this is terrifying
sad truth.
j
Crazy how he predicted this 10 years ago. As far as I know all his pessimistic predictions seem to be more or less on track.
The critical path is food I think. We need something like microalgae that grow in some kind of solar panel on rooftops. Genetically engineered to provide all the nutrients and automated, with very little water and energy consumption and very cheap. Something that can be grown almost anywhere. Just add more panels.
Otherwise it's going to be total war.
Duckweed/Watermeal/Water Lentils are probably going to come into play.
@@noname123456 I've been looking at microalgae like Spirulina, Chlorella, Chlamydomonas reinhardtii
I imagine they are easier to modify since they are simpler and easier to grow and pump in some sort of automated glass topped tanks.
Soylent green
@@ankem4329 Actually after researching this further I think food is less of an issue than I thought, at least if done smart. Just potatoes if grown under good conditions have an amazing yield (something like 15million Kcal / acre / year). So you need surprisingly little land. Like 1.36 million hectar or 13.600 square kilometers
Gwynne Dyer seems like a pretty intelligent person who is out over their skis when discussing topics like CO2 removal. Dr Dyer, yes we don't want it there. But it takes energy to do what you ask. Do praytell where all this energy for CO2 removal comes from? I think any attempt to answer this question by Dr Dyer will result in the absurdity of his desire to become manifest to him. Thinking in terms of energy should illuminate the problem for these believers in a supernatural.
This is a thoroughly interesting lecture from a clearly well researched man, but he really needs to reign in the alarmism. He completely had me going until the part about Australia's collapse in grain exports. As an Australian I can assure you that we have had no such halt on grain exports over any period, let alone the last three years. This year they've been damaged by EXCESS rainfall. It's true that climate change has harmed yields, but nowhere near as much as being claimed here.
it is what the guy said it is , yet he has not taken into consideration the technological advancement and its role in making life conditions better in general, this is what many economists have failed to take into consideration in the 70's also when they anticipated a crisis of that sort also.
i know over population is the worst thing that could happen to the planet. combining this with water scarcity and climate change and its a perfect recipe for disaster and regional wars .
i just want to look at the positive side and hope just hope that technological advancement will solve some of these problems.
This kind of stuff makes not want to have kids.
Just so you know, Dyer's "War" series was part of the reason I had a vasectomy at age 26... almost 37 years ago.
NO woman (my own step-grand-daughters or anyone else's child) should *ever* bear a child in the world of 2030.
2045-2050 is pretty much the limit: no child born after that will
*ever* be able to imagine the coastal *geography* of the planet was in 1970, let alone the climate systems that made it all happen in less than a century.
Teach your children.
th-cam.com/video/IF0fmDeGnQI/w-d-xo.html
Michael Muirhead Good work. Wimpishness and weakness should be removed from the gene pool peacefully. The bold and determined will carry the species forward.
@@hanrako8465 Ignorance is going to wipe you out. It won't matter in the end.
Cryogenics12 You’re projecting, wimp. We’ve been through worse with less. You’re redundant. We’ll survive without you and your nihilism, I 100% guarantee it.
@@hanrako8465 Hope you all enjoy living as hunter gatherers starving in a region plagued by civil war and instability. Dumb shit.
10 years ago and not fucking thing in anyway presented in this lecture have been done? Come on homo sapiens let's try something or?
They're suggesting painting roofs white now.
Malthusian.
Test
Ice is now increasing in cover and thickness in the Antarctic ..... where does that fit in?
So this is how we fix the obesity epidemic, eh?
reddit collapse
The prime minister of Canada writes books about hockey. Maybe he should write on Canada's future.
Pathetic petty little man.
Dyer mentions Canadas likely future is being annexed by a desperate US
@@Warsie of course they will absorb us by conscent or by force to access crop lands, forests and fresh water...ive read the book back in 2013
That's why we fired him
The US won't need too. Canada will want to as a bulwark against an expansionist CCP. Though of course Trudeau might just throw himself on the CCPs mercy first.
Dyer has been predicting the end of the world since the early 1980s. This guy will be disappointed when nothing happens. He is a Doomsayer and he has made a living out of always predicting the End Times that never seem to come.
None of this applies to you if you are rich. You will always have a nice place to live and plenty of food etc.. You just need to keep the system going for as long as possible and when the time comes to cash out you simply move to wherever the grass is green and the water flows and the brown people are far far away. Be rich, be Republican, and you will be just fine. What's left of the world will be your oyster.
+falconeaterf15 Actually as it turns out, some of the richest people in the world are already buying big plots of land in Canada and other northern areas as well as places close to the Antarctic in the Southern hemisphere. Plus many of prognostications made here in this video that are based on conventional models are actually pretty conservative, hence many of them are happening already, and have especially kicked into gear this year. Go figure. =)
pacmanfantastic
It cannot be stopped. Climate agreements are just PR for the masses. No one actually meets whatever fantasy targets they set. So protect yourself. Get rich quick!
go vegan!!!!!!!!!
💯💯💯💯👌🏾👌🏾👌🏾
zzzzzzzzzzzz
Dyer is full of absolute nonsense.
maybe stick to 1980s war docs