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Google Stock Is The BEST Business / At What Price It Fits Your Portfolio?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ส.ค. 2024
- Google stock analysis - Google is one of the best businesses out there so at some point in time it should fit every portfolio as the stock is volatile. here is my Google stock valuation and analysis.
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I think you can make a very valuable series: Looking at the biggest and strongest Businesses and balance sheets on the peak before their decline. NOKIA, KODAK, GE, ENRON etc. I think we can learn very much from this.
Great video Sven! I am looking foward to hear more on Google from you. Keep up the great work!
More to come as we cover it over time!
Hi Sven, thanks for the great analysis. Happy that I have 90% invested in GOOG, of which 30% was done at $86. You are the best and I believe in you. I was talking to my friend and told him that I laughed (with all due respect) when Sven said TSLA would drop to $100, but now here we are with TSLA at $190!
Hey Sven,
I hope you are doing well!
Recently I got more and more into the Company 'K+S' and I have seen that their stock got crushed down a LOT and it seems like it is not going to end. So I dived into their Investor Relations and I didnt see one single bad thing! (Their P/E is also very cheap imo, also they have almost 0 debt!) Their most recent 'Baader Investment Conference' presentation was also actually very bullish in my opinion (I only didnt understand page 20) so I came to the conclusion that their stock price is irrationally dumped which gives me (and hopefully many others) probably a great investement opportunity!
Greets from germany,
Michael ;)
I bought some Google recently & will be averaging down when given the opportunity (counting on it, given the market circumstances).
thanks for sharing!
I'm glad to see someone else with the same thought process. I calculated ~$95 as fair value for a 10% return so I'm glad to see someone else who agrees. I've had puts at $95 for the last several months which have been generating about 8% return. I think it might hit the $95 price before my current puts expire. It's going to be a long term hold for me unless something drastic changes in the business.
I also think there is also a reasonable chance at an unexpected upside if some of their current bets work out. I like that google is betting on future ventures which fit into their biggest strengths (servers and large amounts of data). This seems like a much more sensible venture than some of the other tech companies.
great to hear!
Hey, I’m new to options trading. May I ask how you’re generating 8% on this using puts? Are you selling puts at a lower than $95 strike price?
@@RohanfagwaniI've been selling puts for the last 5-6 months based on what I thought the fair value of google was. So far, it has not hit the strike price so I just got to keep the money from the put contract. My current put is for a strike price of $95. I'll probably be forced to buy at this price (since we are approaching this level) but I am ok with this since I believe this is a fair value for google to generate a 10% return in long run. I may add to my positioning if the price keeps falling without a fundamental change in the business.
Thanks Sven for another great video.
Your recent Fed video had me rotflmao. Your videos are priceless. Keep up the great work.
Thanks, will do!
Thanks alot for discussing risk and reward with Google! And even better, thanks for filming when you were purchasing Google in your broker, and through professional acting, showing the risk with anchoring effect! (99 dollars is much better than 102 dollars).
:-)))
I was very greedy, I bought it at 108, pretty sad that I quiet missed it. But I really wanted at the time, why would I be sad because I got what I want. Greed is never good, I always should buy in little quantities not in bulk. I 've learned from it. Thanks for sharing Sven.
108 ain’t greedy. I started at 110 but just 1. Averaging down since then. This stock is more dangerous than it seems.
@@TheBooban Care to elaborate? Might got to optimistic, thanks to Sven's vid.
Gentlemen, 99, 108, 105... Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. In a 5, 7, 10 year investment time horizon?
who cares? you are buying to 2x in 5-10 years...
@@explorerjlc1743 5 years 2x is not a good investment for growing stock lol
I like those innovators like Alphabet. Amazon added AWS in 2006; Azure by Microsoft, in 2010. Exceptional companies are not static like a picture but dynamic in their strategy.
thanks for sharing!
You dont need to cancel order. You can just update the price on it. And dont know if you noticed it but you were trying to buy it for 100,xx when the price was 101,xx.
And when you select stock to buy its faster to use box in top left corner then search you use in top right corner.
I think it is demo, so I can't....
@@Value-Investing as far as I know demo works exactly as normal. Just virtual money.
👍 Google Green Light. Nice. Now I can take them off the watch list. Sven you should give 3 of the best stocks picks every month. That be 🔥 thanks partner.
great for you!
Hi Sven, what do you think about the high stock based compensation at Google? It’s like $20 billion this doesn’t show up in free cash flow but is a real cost which won’t disappear. This would lower ‘actual’ free cash flow to $45 billion instead of $65 billion. So instead of 18x free cash flow 26x times free cash flow if we would include stock based compensation.
Been buying googl recently. Will be holding for years
thanks for sharing!
@@Value-Investing thanks for the great content!
Rest assured that Sven will sell when it goes further down and argue his thesis has changed just like he always does. He’s just a hack.
Do watch previous videos of META, Baba.
What you expect him to keep holding losers forever ?
Both Apple and Google are great businesses. Both have strong moat; continuing growth; consistent share buybacks; etc. Yet, to invert, do you think why Buffett does not invest in Google while holding such a large position in Apple and continuously adding to it, especially given that Apple is trading with a significantly higher valuation than Google? According to Seeking Alpha, as of Friday's close Google has P/E-GAAP (TTM) of 18.36 and Apple has 24.89.
Good point! I guess he is still old school so he prefers a tangible product!
Sven an interesting video would be Liberty Global plc (still the largest stock in Klarman's portfolio), lot of happenings since your last video. A lot of analysts are concerned about the business model, and since your video it dropped as nearly as 50%.
that one is covered on my research platform, will update soon, so can't discuss publicly!
Hi Sven. What do you think about Microsoft? It seems it is not cheap yet, altough the market seem to think Microsoft is the safer bet and trades at a premium.
we could take another look, thanks!
Interest rate is growing and the recession is knocking at our door meaning there will be a slow down in advertising, so buy in small bites, preferably using hooks (limit orders), don't be gready
There is also the political risk which Sven hasn't mentioned
thanks for sharing!
I have a long position on alphabet, things you can add Imo : Google cloud is Not profitable yet, if it gets azure or aws profitability it s one more cash machine in there business (i would like to get your opinion on When). They made also a big acquisition in cyber security, IA is amazing (there is an interview of google ia, its mind blowing…). Thks for you content !
the when will be when they decide, until then it will likely be gaining market share!
I don’t know if anyone else has already suggested it, but you may use midprice order in this situations maybe also adjust it for speed, it will fill your order at the possibily best price-speed&timing ratio. Most of the times it works, especially in catching a good price and entry point during a fast uptrend. It is a little bit slower but it should works also in the demo account
thanks for sharing!
Hi Sven , where can I find the s&p500 break down by earnings and not by capitalization? Thanks
if you find in nice, please send it to me too!
i can see it at 80 soon after two earning calls given the macro set up for ads and tough comp from tiktok. when it comes to cloud, now oracle is also taking some shares besides msft's aggression in market. btw, what is ur opinion on Alibaba? do you think we need to be take risk with taiwan issue or greedy when everyone flies away
thanks for commenting!
Hi Sven, you were looking at glass A shares which were GOOGL and you were trying to buy GOOG. That may also be the reason of the discrepancy. 😃 I however don’t really understand the benefit of having voting shares over the non voting shares. I would assume that the non voting would be slightly lower in value or would have made sense if they didn’t do the stock split on the GOOGL shares… would be nice to hear your thoughts on this.
The benefit is that you can vote but the non voting shares have done slightly better i believe. Wouldnt he too hard to find out. No difference otherwise tho.. When I did my research I ended up picking the non voting ones I remember.
@@maxjames00077 in the past the nonvoting GOOG were over performing because they were part of the buyback program. Once Google mentioned that they would buy back both they equaled out I believe.
Alphabet is now the definition of a great business at a fair price! I bought some at 100, but I think it could drop more, there could be a great opportunity to add more at 90 or 80!
$90 would be a great price for buying... if the US-fed-rates are going up to 4.5%, then I would expect lower prices for tech.
.
thanks for sharing!
@@jonnes__4657 everyone keeps doing that. Slash 10-20% off the current price and claim that that is the perfect price. Then $90 comes around and they say $80 would be perfect. You guys are such geniuses.
@@TheBooban yes, when 80 come i would say buy at 60 or 50 will be best!! Hahaha joker, i got Alphabet as my biggest position already with a Sell Put at $85 expired mid of next year. Can?
hi sven. can you explain the discount rate in the dcf valuation
here you go th-cam.com/video/VfSGV2AFNko/w-d-xo.html
What do you think about SWK stock? (Stanley Black & Dekker) its a dividend King and it has dropped a lot in price
that is an interesting one to be researched!
At the same level of the covid crash…looking good at under $80..
18.7 PE is the lowest in 10 years. I did Added some last week
yep!
But also makes sense PE should go down as the company grows and especially with the interest rates change
Thanks for the video.
thank you!
Yup, great business good price. Just a question if we can get it at a ridiculous price in this environment! Maybe not, who knows.
Thanks for the video.
anything can happen!
Hey Sven have you ever think of sell a put option at the money to buy google at lower price while collecting extra cash?
not really - if you invest, then it is about buying when the price is there, not speculating it will go lower!
Sven, what do you think about buying Adobe after its price drop ?
th-cam.com/video/Vr778FwXMkU/w-d-xo.html
I have written some cash secured puts for GOOGL at 70USD, June 2023 expiry. Hoping to get filled by then or will just keep the premiums.
Bought at 105 and 100…. Easy buy and not concerned with this year
:-)
google do monetise gmail, it has inline ads that appear as messages
Hey Sven,
You forgot to mention Android. It is also a part of Google.
and a few other things too - but that all is Google!
Sven, i have a question. Google being such a great company with an extremely big moat trading at a very very decent price. Why would someone like Munger or Buffett not buy Google? I don't understand. What is it that makes it too risky for them even with their enormous moat?
they said they missed it in 2006, but then again, if you are not 100% sure, you simply don't have to swing at everything that looks good!
Why do you use discount rate of 10%?
Hello Sven great Channel👍 can you please do blackrock or Microsoft
thanks for suggesting!
That trading ending :D
:-))))
Just purchased it at an effective cost of $67.95/share (purchase and covered call)
If by Jan/2024 it stays above $78 a share. I will get assigned with 11% (annualized) in my pocket.
thanks for sharing!
I'm adding in increments to my position as it drops, also to Microsoft and Amazon. Tech is falling out of favour and great names that print cash get dragged down with all the 0 profit high PE companies, which is nice for investors that wanted these solid names but didn't want to overpay.
Well said!
why aere there two classes for google? A and C for retail? is c the one before split and now buying google means you're buying class A?
one has voting, the other not, I completely forgot about it!
@@Value-Investing so which one should or would you buy? this is confusing lol
Bought 35 shares at $98 on Fri. Will buy more if it dips : )
Thanks for sharing!
Very exciting. I've been sitting mostly on the sidelines of the US market since the COVID flash crash and now it's great.to see that we can start loading up with serious blue chips at a very appealing price.
Would be great to know how you see the current Amazon price too.
will discuss soon!
You sitting on the sidelines cost you years of gains..
@@Sam-ue4rv yes, but I didn't like the risk implied in the US pe ratios of the last few years and wasn't interested in "timing the market". I have also sat on the sidelines of the Tesla growth and of ARK growth. I'm happy to miss risky gambles that work out (or ultimately don't, like in ARK case).
@@T0mkisss made most money in the Corona crash.. even with this dip im still up.
But I guess I got lucky I was new and took profits..
@@Sam-ue4rv this made me think about a quote from one of the all time investment greats around the behaviour of the markets being optimised for teaching participants to lose their money in the future. An example of that was Ray Dalio getting taught by the markets that he's great a trading and then pretty much going broke in 1982.
So the question in your situation is whether you now try to time the market again, knowing that you were successful once, and then again and again with ever more confidence (and leverage?).
Hi Sven! Why buy GOOG and not GOOGL? Could you explain the difference between the two and why you prefer one over the other? Thanks in advance!
no difference for me, actually I had to buy the cheaper :-(
Maybe I can add a bit of value. They both exist because of an unusual stock split in 2014 where management didn't want to dilute the voting rights. As such, every holder of GOOGL (has voting rights) shares received equal amounts of GOOG Shares (no voting rights). I don't know why their prices are different though...
@@TidusVen So both GOOGL and GOOG have the same shares outstanding? The only difference is the voting rights? Thanks for your comment btw!
@@pedrosantos881 yes, that is the gist of it :)
i feel like the average case which is 10% growth is a bit much, considering analysts are expecting a decrease in the following year.
How is the worst case 7-10% growth ? to a company that has such a big market cap i believe 7-10% is average case .
Feels like you are trying to justify a buying of GOOG because its indeed a great company, but margin of safety is not enough.
20-30% of what u pay is for their moat
time will tell! Thanks for sharing the good points!
Is there a possibility that the buybacks are there to counteract the effect of stock options from employees being excercised?
the stocks issued are the factor, not how much they sell
I love Google as a stock pick, but which one? A, B, or C lol
:-)
Caro druze Sven no te ga' messo in conto alpha fold, hai hai hai grosso errore.grazie per il servizio
The bets, something will come out of that, when and what who knows!
Where to go when Warren invites me, that one got me :D
:-))))
Would you have amazon and google in your portfolio or just pick one of them?
Both are Trillion dollar businesses! No doubt to have both! ;)
depends on your strategy!
What does price have to do with fitting in a portfolio?
Higher price = less weighting and then increase weighting as price drops if fundamentals stays the same.
return and risk are a function of price!
@@Value-Investing Yes but this is independent of other portfolio constituents?
Most likely it will stop declining at 85, - dollar level. So buying at 88,- seems like a good idea to be on the safe site at get this great stock cheap.
No one knows where it will stop declining.
Let's see!
@@pornstarpat Buying instead of selling on the way is a good strategy to counter this.
I was wondering if you can do a big favor for subscribers with updating worst case stock price for Google based on Google hit with $25 billion EU/UK lawsuit over its adtech business? We highly appreciate for your answer!!! Best of all!!!
At a 5% growth rate, Google would only be worth 50$ as per your DCF? They would have 20% of their market cap in cash at that price. Shouldn't the balance sheet also be taken into account when valuing a business?
thanks for adding value!
Can you review Visa?
thanks for suggesting!
I was just having the idea of investing in google myself before you did this video
Is on a huge bargain now 98$ but i think you shouldn't commit a 30K yet!! start small and average down
most likely prices will keep tanking, remember the alibaba mistake you made?
thanks for sharing!
Demo does not use your real money?
I've owned it for many years but I'm nibbling at it again under 100.
Thanks for sharing, Google is about owning!
Still almost 25% above the pre-COVID price. Might be able to get this one a lot lower, especially if earnings stall or go down in the next year.
you never know!
You cant compare price with different revenue and earnings…
@@adrienas3479 uhh isn't that what the stock market does? Please explain your position
@@adammarette2491 he's saying you are making the "anchoring" fallacy, which is common among value investors and can lead to missing out on a good buy. The price should only be interpreted relative to earnings/earnings potential. Therefore the past price from 2 years + ago isn't really that relevant to the value today after covid changed a lot of the world. Yes it can go lower, but due to their awesome earnings growth buying today at $100 can be value, but buying in 2019 at $100 couldnhave been speculation despite that you would have gotten lucky on that trade.
@@xaviernogueira thanks for the explanation
picking stocks in bear market is like shooting fish in a barrel. Just buy any well known brands stocks now, you will make lots of money in a few years.
:-)))
Good video thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it
Sven if you are so smart why you didn't purchase google in 2015 - 2018 ?
I bought other things :-)
Are we still getting that adidas update regarding the ceo leaving?
I have only 24 hours a day!
I think you already know I don't sleeP1
@@Value-Investing you're the coolest!
If possible can you make a video about Facebook Stock
th-cam.com/video/_zIcoBprHUk/w-d-xo.html
🙏
thank you!
i'll probably start a position at 70's
Hoping for it to break further below 100 to average down
thanks for sharing!
A big risk for alphabet are the current and coming lawsuits related to their monopoly poaition and creepy stalking/tracking/surveillance practices
thanks for sharing!
oh, lol, I agree, GOOGL rocks! Don't lose your shite, my friend! Thanks. ;p
I will wait until it goes down to $75. impossible you say, just wait, this crash will be epic.
anything can happen!
Sven, is your YT portfolio a demo portfolio? I thought you put 1M real money into it.😒
If you give me a million I will do it, no problem!
I think google could hit $90. The Fed is raising interest rate. The economy will slow down. Ads revenue will drop. I plan to add more googl stocks. Google is great stock to own. It is currently cheap value. Long term holder is the key.
anything can happen!
I like your long videos, please don't do shorts. I usually start a video and go for a walk, the short format does not work well for a walk imo.
thanks for the tips, but YT has now separated shorts from videos, so you can choose what to watch. It is very clear YT wants more shorts so I will do them when I have to say something that is short!
what about regulatory risk? government stepping in to break it up?
Breaking it up is in the best interest of shareholder. Reverse synergy
Who knows what governments will do! But they can't force me to search elsewhere or put my videos on other platforms too!!!
I dont think anybody can give you a definative answer but it maybe helpfull if you ponder when the US government last forced a private business to split and what were the consequencies.
My guess is that it was the case of standard oil and that following the split most share holders were considerably better off
You misser Android... Huge moat
thanks for sharing!
what do you think of BABA?
hm, good question - It is a covered stock on my platform so I can't discuss publicly:-(
Remember guys its a long term investment
Wait did he just say they’re not monetizing email? 😂 what about Scroogled?
thanks for sharing!
Can u do an analysis of baba again?
Thanks
it is covered on my platform, so can't do publicly!
@@Value-Investing I thought now u might provide new insight since the last update at this price
@@Value-Investing oh sorry I see what U mean
Will check there
Thanks sgain
Where is our updated ttcf video Sven? lol
Do I need to update? The stock went down, as I said:-)
Your comment is not the only one, did I say something about when it gets to $5?
@@Value-Investing yep. You said you'd make another video when it hit around 5.
i boutght the dip!! hahahaha
I honestly thought 20x earnings was fair when I bought @ $128. I still feel it is because it’s got an incredible balance sheet, cash flow and moat. Just sucks to be down 25% when you got no cash laying around at the moment to dollar cost average. But I know in 10-15 years the stock will likely be significantly higher.
Do you see Alphabet starting to offer a dividend anytime soon?
they already do significant buybacks - maybe the form of shareholder returns isn't important to them.
@@Value-Investing Alright, so I guess I have to learn what stock buybacks are ^^
Demo account? Not really money?
th-cam.com/video/_zIcoBprHUk/w-d-xo.html
like google but buried up to my arse in it now.
:-))
there is no question that google is a great business, but i feel like it is just way to big and complicated to fully understand and project with any certainty so i am gonna stay away until it gets so cheap that a reliable projection is not that relevant anymore
thanks for sharing!
Analist without stocks!
I know what I am doing!
I'm actually watching TH-cam on a Google android phone
:/)))
Its $97 now
thanks for sharing
I've setted my order for GOOGL stock at 90$ per share, and i think Jerome help me to buy in next few weeks.
thanks for sharing!
🗽The highest value of GOOGL is probably the data and the surveillance of the users.
They cooperate with the government (PPP).
.
First
Thanks!
Sorry Sven, I'll stop following your post because you don't have skin in the game anymore.
good bye!