Hi, first of all thanks for all the content, i really like your videos, they help me a lot beginning at poker (I play NL2). Now check this: at 6:42 EV=330, but, for cash games you can include the rake, if it is 5% then EV= 276. Critical %W is about 40%, so a pocket 77 isn't a good call . Hope it helps Thanks again split!
Hey Tomas, I'm glad you are digging the content! As for the rake, usually cash rake would be something like 5% capped at something (say, $5). To solve with rake included assuming rake is maxed out when you call and win, remove the max rake from the $W. So for the AK example, it drops the EV of the call by about $3 with $5 rake.
I think the math for shoves can be explained more simply (although it ends up being the same). In the video you talk about paying off an all-in shove of 750 over existing 250 with AK. The math done is 1250 (existing pot) win at 54% vs. 750 loss at 46% - total +EV of 330. I feel it's much simpler to say: you invest 750 to win 2000 (total pot to be) at a chance of 54%, so 2000 * 0.54 -700 is your return (still 330 +EV). Feel simpler though (take the total pot to be won, double by chances and compare to the investment). BTW - obviously, then you have 50% equity and above - you should pay everything. since always your investment would be less than 50% of the total pot. So over 50% equity (you are leading in essence) means pay it all. Need to make sure that when all the math is said and done - basic logic is not forgotten.
A range estimate is always going to be a probability and, as always, the 'it depends on the situation' phrase is a key determinator as we are evaluating people. At microstakes at least, if someone wins a preflop all in with 99 they're def shoving JJ next time but lose one with QQ and those jacks probably get folded. Takes a strong constitution to ignore past events & trust that +ev will make you $ in the long run.
In tournament play AQ is a 3bet and fold to a jam. KQ, while it looks pretty is a fold to a jam. I would only call if I have significant chips to cover villain, but usually you will be up against an Ax, which you are losing to, or a pair, which you are also behind.
@@splitsuit Of course it depends on how many BB you have, stack sizes, how many people are left, and if there is one or several short stacks about to bust, pay jumps, and of course how frequently is someone is 3 betting.
Hi there, great video! @splitsuit do I need Poker Equilab to make use of the poker workbook? If so I'm on a Mac Book Pro, where would I download it? Thanks!
You need an equity calculator for sure. I don't know of the free ones for Mac (as I haven't used a Mac in forever), but PokerCruncher or PremiumPokerTools are options. If you find a quality free one, please share!
A paid Equity Calculator I use on Mac (similar to Flopzilla) is called PokerCruncher. If you want a basic Equity Calculator, you can also use the one in PokerTracker4.
Hi. I have question: how do I derive the formula that tells me how often I should call to break even, depending on bet size and what's in the pot. Ev=W%($W)-L%($L) or Ev=W%($W)-(1-W%)($L) If $W=pot+bet(# of players in hand) and $L=bet, then Ev=W%(P+NB)-(1-W%)(B) where P=pot, B=bet, and N=# players Assuming break even point is Ev=0, and solving for W%, I get: W%=B/NB-B+P. I know this is incorrect and that the answer should be W%=B/NB+P. Could you or anyone versed in math help me figure out what I'm doing wrong please? Thanks
if you get package with tools? does that includes PokerTracker 4? (as from mac can't use holdem manager) or what is meant with poker tools? (except flopzilla) as I think this book could really improve game and i think i need those extra tools anyways as with trial with hm3 it was very helpful
It does not include PT4. The software package includes Flopzilla and Premium Poker Tools (premiumpokertools.com/). The good thing is that Premium Poker Tools is web-based, so you can use it on a Mac =)
I saw a year ago you had a guided and as you said “goes through everything A-Z “ is that still a thing or is it on your website, looking to improve all my game as I’m newish but playing for fun
what happens if you keep calling all ins with pocket kings and keep going out should i fold kings because it signifies the end of my tourney or keep calling and getting setted against lower pocket pairs or the ace on a ax shove
keep calling with kk, only fold if you have a read at someone who is a nit or the hand gets to you three or four beted, you can also fold in a tourney if you get raised by a chip leader and you are second in chips ,in that case sometime it is possible to fold as you mention to stay in the tourney, for the jumps in money. you get the idea.
Call with kk, you're a massive fav against lower pairs. If you keep getting bad beats and sweating it, drop down a level until you feel better with losing with good bets. Bad beats are real. That's just poker. Keep playing your A game.
@@lewisparry4992 its better to try to play +ev where probability is in your favour. Bad beats are like bad weather, both are unwanted yet, unavoidable.
I should have clarified that I think the shoving range of the Villain in the first example is way too wide, so the equity of the Hero is much less. Thank you.
@@ryanorrock6501 What would that prove either way? If I'm a huge winner does it override the math I shared? If I were a losing player would it invalidate the math?
@@splitsuit The question is whether the range assumptions are correct given the player pool and the tourney/cash situations. In my $1/3 local | $2/5 (which can play super deep), I assume pretty much no one is going AI pre with anything worse than KK/AA. Maaaaybe AK. In fact, I went AI with A7s and the guy next to me laid down AK. :D Assuming a 99 or ATs AI with $1k starting stacks is I believe what the original poster was referring to...
Tired to play against all in preflop maniacs.. my range against those maniacs is TT+ and i usually lose to 73o and other shitty hands I guess variance is not on my side these days.. Have the felling that i'm not developing my poker skills because i only play micro stakes/free rolls and theres A LOT of the all in maniacs
is it possible (or correct becouse its possible) to put in Villains Range (for first in shoving 15bb from the BU or lets say 10bb becouse some of you guys dont shove with 15bb) without reads so he should be shoving nash and click min equity? Then i dont have to make it with every hand and get a my complete range ....of course its changing when i am in the blinds becouse of better odds ....and overshoving when getting at least 1 to 2 (i shove here normal get that from collin) and its also changing on with icm then u add the bubble factor but this i have to read in kill everyone how exactly that works ...or someone is here that can make it clear for me ...... gl guys
The smaller tournaments you play, the further your opponent's will likely be from Nash ranges. So whether you default assign Nash ranges or not, should consider that fact first =)
@@splitsuit I don't follow. Silly (above) is right, it is 750 to win 2000. No? That's how you get the right pot odds of 37.5%. What I don't quite follow is the relationship between the pot odds and EV. That is, don't I really need to only know my equity vs. my pot odds to call (and how close they are to determine a greater or lesser EV ). The EV in the video seems overly complex for this sitch. What am I missing sir? I assume I am missing something.
@@AsaSpater No, Silly is incorrect. When you call and win, you win +$1,250. When you call and lose, you lose $750. To figure out your equity requirement you take risk/(risk+reward), or 750/(1250+750) to get a ~37% equity requirement. You then compare your hand's estimated equity to the equity requirement derived from your current pot odds. (like you said!) The reason why it's beneficial to do some EV exploration like this is to get an idea of the ROI of calling. A +$100 EV call is different if you are risking $200, or $20,000, to earn that EV. And this kind of exploration helps you see that a bit clearer.
@@splitsuit First, thank you sooo much for taking the time to reply. I think I was only trying to see A ) if I understood (I think I do, thanks!) and B) if I did, then to conclude that it can be pretty easy to get close, in-game. The amount at risk is known (750), and the pots estimate is simple (here, 3/8 = 2/8 + 1/8 , = 1/4 plus half of 1/4, = 25% + half of 25%, = 37.5%). If you have a clue about the equities 54, 60 and 47, respectively, you compare that to the 37.5 and can see how close or far you are from 750.
Seems really pointless when you're just literally making up and guessing your opponents hand range. Sure you can make a logical guess but once you start talking about mtts and micro stakes all this can go in the trash immediately.
Logic doesn't magically go out the window in MTTs/micro stakes though. Ranges might go wider and more unpredictable, but that doesn't mean we abandon attempting to suss out a range and determine the best play against that range.
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Want to learn even more math concepts? Join my free poker math course and get 40+ lessons right now: www.splitsuit.com/the-poker-math-course
Hi, first of all thanks for all the content, i really like your videos, they help me a lot beginning at poker (I play NL2).
Now check this: at 6:42 EV=330, but, for cash games you can include the rake, if it is 5% then EV= 276. Critical %W is about 40%, so a pocket 77 isn't a good call . Hope it helps
Thanks again split!
Hey Tomas, I'm glad you are digging the content! As for the rake, usually cash rake would be something like 5% capped at something (say, $5). To solve with rake included assuming rake is maxed out when you call and win, remove the max rake from the $W. So for the AK example, it drops the EV of the call by about $3 with $5 rake.
Worth every sec. Getting closer. On to the next one
I think the math for shoves can be explained more simply (although it ends up being the same). In the video you talk about paying off an all-in shove of 750 over existing 250 with AK. The math done is 1250 (existing pot) win at 54% vs. 750 loss at 46% - total +EV of 330.
I feel it's much simpler to say: you invest 750 to win 2000 (total pot to be) at a chance of 54%, so 2000 * 0.54 -700 is your return (still 330 +EV). Feel simpler though (take the total pot to be won, double by chances and compare to the investment).
BTW - obviously, then you have 50% equity and above - you should pay everything. since always your investment would be less than 50% of the total pot. So over 50% equity (you are leading in essence) means pay it all. Need to make sure that when all the math is said and done - basic logic is not forgotten.
I calculate EV this way too
-750*
But yeah, that is much easier to use in practice - thanks for that.
A range estimate is always going to be a probability and, as always, the 'it depends on the situation' phrase is a key determinator as we are evaluating people. At microstakes at least, if someone wins a preflop all in with 99 they're def shoving JJ next time but lose one with QQ and those jacks probably get folded.
Takes a strong constitution to ignore past events & trust that +ev will make you $ in the long run.
Putting in the homework on this stuff would make you a beast though I'm sure
Okay I bought the workbook hopefully it will help me out
Holy heck i want that book ...
In tournament play AQ is a 3bet and fold to a jam. KQ, while it looks pretty is a fold to a jam. I would only call if I have significant chips to cover villain, but usually you will be up against an Ax, which you are losing to, or a pair, which you are also behind.
Just because your hand is behind equity-wise doesn't automatically make things a fold. That's exactly what this kind of work can highlight.
@@splitsuit You can't call off your tournament life or decimate your stack with a marginal +ev play, when you can just wait for a better spot.
CanadianLoveKnot that assumes you will always have tons of time to wait for a better spot.
@@splitsuit Of course it depends on how many BB you have, stack sizes, how many people are left, and if there is one or several short stacks about to bust, pay jumps, and of course how frequently is someone is 3 betting.
Workbook looks cool. How did you come up with those ranges though :X
Not everyone only shoves KK+ =P
Great work!
How do you have an idea what your equity is when you're at the table? And are hands like A2 suited or A9 offsuit really in people's shove range?
Hi there, great video! @splitsuit do I need Poker Equilab to make use of the poker workbook? If so I'm on a Mac Book Pro, where would I download it? Thanks!
You need an equity calculator for sure. I don't know of the free ones for Mac (as I haven't used a Mac in forever), but PokerCruncher or PremiumPokerTools are options. If you find a quality free one, please share!
A paid Equity Calculator I use on Mac (similar to Flopzilla) is called PokerCruncher. If you want a basic Equity Calculator, you can also use the one in PokerTracker4.
Hi. I have question: how do I derive the formula that tells me how often I should call to break even, depending on bet size and what's in the pot.
Ev=W%($W)-L%($L) or Ev=W%($W)-(1-W%)($L)
If $W=pot+bet(# of players in hand) and $L=bet, then Ev=W%(P+NB)-(1-W%)(B) where P=pot, B=bet, and N=# players
Assuming break even point is Ev=0, and solving for W%, I get:
W%=B/NB-B+P. I know this is incorrect and that the answer should be W%=B/NB+P. Could you or anyone versed in math help me figure out what I'm doing wrong please? Thanks
Hi Sweeney, great content. My question - can I use the same equations if I am calling an all-in (where I have not invested any $$$ yet)?
Cheers! And yes you can, just modify the $W and $L accordingly
How can I work out the ev without a calculator? I want to try get my brain to work
%win * pot before call - %lose * call amount (the percentages are decimals)
so you have just 4 bet somebody and they 5 bet jam on u 100 bb and somehow A9 is in their range ?!
Why do you have a bigger range on the right side?
Some would say this is easy peasy.
lol
Equilab is free or how much does it cost?
if you get package with tools? does that includes PokerTracker 4? (as from mac can't use holdem manager) or what is meant with poker tools? (except flopzilla) as I think this book could really improve game and i think i need those extra tools anyways as with trial with hm3 it was very helpful
It does not include PT4. The software package includes Flopzilla and Premium Poker Tools (premiumpokertools.com/). The good thing is that Premium Poker Tools is web-based, so you can use it on a Mac =)
@@splitsuit thanks for response, will look into it after pay ;D thanks for great content
@@kasparsvanags8372 you're very welcome!
I saw a year ago you had a guided and as you said “goes through everything A-Z “ is that still a thing or is it on your website, looking to improve all my game as I’m newish but playing for fun
I’ve been doing core and go anyone who can see this, but core! Absolutely amazing and if you can afford the ebook. Do it, easily worth it!!!!!
Yup, CORE: redchippoker.com/launch-core/ (sounds like you already found it!)
what happens if you keep calling all ins with pocket kings and keep going out should i fold kings because it signifies the end of my tourney or keep calling and getting setted against lower pocket pairs or the ace on a ax shove
keep calling with kk, only fold if you have a read at someone who is a nit or the hand gets to you three or four beted, you can also fold in a tourney if you get raised by a chip leader and you are second in chips ,in that case sometime it is possible to fold as you mention to stay in the tourney, for the jumps in money. you get the idea.
Call with kk, you're a massive fav against lower pairs. If you keep getting bad beats and sweating it, drop down a level until you feel better with losing with good bets. Bad beats are real. That's just poker. Keep playing your A game.
@@jakewelford but bad beats online are constant
@@lewisparry4992 its better to try to play +ev where probability is in your favour. Bad beats are like bad weather, both are unwanted yet, unavoidable.
You didn't describe the type of player, and the ranges seemed a bit wide. Maybe that isn't important, and what is more important is learning the math.
You are exactly right David. And there are some tighter (and wider) ranges in the EV sections too =)
Just random thought here? Do you see anyone shoving with air. Clearly ev would improve if that was in there range.
Yes to all of your comment =)
This assumes that one of the holdings of the Villain is A-9? I don't know anyone who goes all in with that.
I should have clarified that I think the shoving range of the Villain in the first example is way too wide, so the equity of the Hero is much less. Thank you.
Feel like if you keep calling a 40 BB shove with AQs you will be broke by end of quarantine.
I feel like if one always folds AQs they would never set themselves up to place top-3 😁
@@splitsuit cool. Care to publish results?
@@ryanorrock6501 What would that prove either way? If I'm a huge winner does it override the math I shared? If I were a losing player would it invalidate the math?
@@splitsuit The question is whether the range assumptions are correct given the player pool and the tourney/cash situations. In my $1/3 local | $2/5 (which can play super deep), I assume pretty much no one is going AI pre with anything worse than KK/AA. Maaaaybe AK. In fact, I went AI with A7s and the guy next to me laid down AK. :D Assuming a 99 or ATs AI with $1k starting stacks is I believe what the original poster was referring to...
PokerDev I agree with all of that. I just see too many players make absolute statements about a hand/spot and ignore the ranges and math altogether
Tired to play against all in preflop maniacs.. my range against those maniacs is TT+ and i usually lose to 73o and other shitty hands
I guess variance is not on my side these days.. Have the felling that i'm not developing my poker skills because i only play micro stakes/free rolls and theres A LOT of the all in maniacs
I found new poker trainer app it's preflop+ really good app l really enjoying it. What do you think should I really training with app.
I don't know anything about the output or model that app uses, but training with a solid app is totally valid if the output is solid =)
is it possible (or correct becouse its possible) to put in Villains Range (for first in shoving 15bb from the BU or lets say 10bb becouse some of you guys dont shove with 15bb) without reads so he should be shoving nash and click min equity? Then i dont have to make it with every hand and get a my complete range ....of course its changing when i am in the blinds becouse of better odds ....and overshoving when getting at least 1 to 2 (i shove here normal get that from collin) and its also changing on with icm then u add the bubble factor but this i have to read in kill everyone how exactly that works ...or someone is here that can make it clear for me ...... gl guys
The smaller tournaments you play, the further your opponent's will likely be from Nash ranges. So whether you default assign Nash ranges or not, should consider that fact first =)
@@splitsuit np got kill everyone from a friend yesterday :)
@@beatthebieber8449 gl with it!
@@splitsuit thx boah cool he i remember so much stuff in this book from bencb and other schools ... i surely dont need long for that book....
The horror part of poker haha keep it up m8
Confused a bit. Why wouldn’t you be risking $750 to win 2k? You get your money back when you win. I guess that’s why my pot odds are always amazing 😂🤣
Because you don't WIN money you own. Your 4bet $ belongs to the pot, while the remaining $750 belongs to you. Does that help a bit?
@@splitsuit I don't follow. Silly (above) is right, it is 750 to win 2000. No? That's how you get the right pot odds of 37.5%. What I don't quite follow is the relationship between the pot odds and EV. That is, don't I really need to only know my equity vs. my pot odds to call (and how close they are to determine a greater or lesser EV ). The EV in the video seems overly complex for this sitch. What am I missing sir? I assume I am missing something.
@@AsaSpater No, Silly is incorrect. When you call and win, you win +$1,250. When you call and lose, you lose $750. To figure out your equity requirement you take risk/(risk+reward), or 750/(1250+750) to get a ~37% equity requirement.
You then compare your hand's estimated equity to the equity requirement derived from your current pot odds. (like you said!)
The reason why it's beneficial to do some EV exploration like this is to get an idea of the ROI of calling. A +$100 EV call is different if you are risking $200, or $20,000, to earn that EV. And this kind of exploration helps you see that a bit clearer.
@@splitsuit First, thank you sooo much for taking the time to reply. I think I was only trying to see A ) if I understood (I think I do, thanks!) and B) if I did, then to conclude that it can be pretty easy to get close, in-game. The amount at risk is known (750), and the pots estimate is simple (here, 3/8 = 2/8 + 1/8 , = 1/4 plus half of 1/4, = 25% + half of 25%, = 37.5%). If you have a clue about the equities 54, 60 and 47, respectively, you compare that to the 37.5 and can see how close or far you are from 750.
@@AsaSpater you're very welcome!
Your ranges for opponent shove are ridiculous
Well, now you know the process for doing the math in these spots. So feel free to use your own range assumptions and see what the EV looks like.
Seems really pointless when you're just literally making up and guessing your opponents hand range. Sure you can make a logical guess but once you start talking about mtts and micro stakes all this can go in the trash immediately.
Logic doesn't magically go out the window in MTTs/micro stakes though. Ranges might go wider and more unpredictable, but that doesn't mean we abandon attempting to suss out a range and determine the best play against that range.