"Sending their best" - Debunking the myth of Russian 'cannon fodder' in Ukraine
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 มี.ค. 2022
- In any conflict, there are always going to be myths that emerge.
Stop me if you've heard some version of this one over the last few weeks:
"Russia isn't sending their best troops/equipment. They just sent in the conscripts first to soften the Ukrainians up. Any day now the real troops will go in with updated gear and you'll see!"
No.
Russian visually confirmed equipment losses paint a very clear picture and it's this: If anything, the better equipment and units are paying a disproportionately high price in this campaign to date.
I am not saying Russians have been well trained or well supplied. I'm not saying that they haven't used conscripts. I'm not even saying that they haven't shown a disregard for casualties. All I'm saying is that there is no evidence that Russia is holding back it's best men or materiel.
In this video, I look at the myth, the available evidence, and present sources you can use yourself.
My genuine thanks to those working hard to document visually confirmed losses in Ukraine. Their work makes these kinds of analyses possible
www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02...
I was sent your videos by somebody saying you're a gamer. I have no idea what your background is, but this was my field for years. Your videos are better than 90% of the takes I've seen by pro analysts. You missed your calling.
Cheers Beau, appreciate the compliment. I've been cautious covering this stuff in a public forum, but I've been frustrated with a lot of the coverage out there and thought it was time to stick my head out.
I'll make sure to drop by the discord sometime.
@@PerunAU wow, you already got discovered by beau, u gotta keep making stuff man
What field is that exactly? I’m curious how you guys got this knowledge
I was just thinking exactly the same thing.
@@scipio8866 geopolitics mainly.
Russia has a large and modern army. However, the large army isn’t modern, and the modern army isn’t large.
The modern and trained army is around 500k manpower if I'm not mistaken? Down from 1-2 mil
Their definition of modern is 1990.
@@qingyuhu also true
@@rafaeterna1081 Russia can have X number of modern units ON PAPER, but in reality you have to understand there is massive corruption on every level, so money allocated for upgrades gets stolen, upgraded modern equipment parts get stolen, etc. The fact that there are new T-72B tanks seen, does not mean they are fully equipped inside as they should. There are reports that tanks are sent there with insuficcient munition and crew (3 instead of 4 per vehicle for example).
@@emilz85 An insufficient crew in a Russian tank is hard to imagine, given that the full crew is 3 people. What can you live without, the commander, the driver or the shooter?
"so I do want to make a couple more,"
NARRATOR VOICE: "It would, in fact, be quite a few more than a couple."
"They are throwing in absolute trash, like this T-72"
*T-54 starts sweating*
It's crazy that there's grainy black and white footage of many of these vehicles being used in old conflicts where they weren't even the scariest and most modern thing on the battlefield
Vehicles that served in Afghanistan and Chechnya have been pushed back into service only to be destroyed in Ukraine
"Ha! I wasn't even trying!"
- Literally every bully ever getting a bloody nose
The reason why this myth exists is that people cannot fathom the idea that a country everyone feared would march to the Rhine in a week for half a century would now suddenly suck so hard it couldn't even beat Ukraine.
that nonsesnse mostly exists in Africa, India and the middleeast who think Russians are supermen
"... suck so hard it couldn't even beat Ukraine" Well, now we know Ukraine has some tough SOBs.
Only 2000 Ukrainian civilians have died in this war. Out of 40 million. That is nearly flawless when it comes to an invasion. The US killed that many in the first few hours in Iraq. Of course the Russian could just level every city and win the war in a few months. But a lot of those people are Russians and favor Russia. So Russia wont be using WW2 scorched earth tactics. Since the Ukrainian air force is liquidated the Russians can just hold their positions around the cities and let the Russian air power take affect.
The U.S. proved totally incapable of dealing with the Taliban, no one should be surprised that a significantly more poorly equipped army is doing worse invading a significantly better equipped country.
@@perc7226 Russia victoriously retreats))))))))
This video, 7 months later hits hard and goes to show the depth and detail of your analysis because now that we do have hindsight, you are about 99% accurate.
I was an Infantry Soldier for 9 years. None of the briefings I gave or received was as good as the volume of work this fellow produces! Keep up the great work.
Another 9 months later and there's T-54/55 in Donbas 😂
So true to all 3 of you.
Watching this in mid 2023 hearing Perun talk about the "Absolute Trash" we've seen, referencing old-spec T-72's. If sweet innocent Perun from 2022 could only imagine what he was going to see over the next 12 months... Trash has been redefined...
The BMP-1 is common, the T-62 are seen in the frontlines, so etimes the T-55 in an attack, but I'm still waiting for the T-34.
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 you won't see any, but I would watch for T-10s and ISU-152s. However, I believe that the number of T-55/54 produced is way too large to be exhausted in this conflict.
When I saw the Ka-52 combat helicopters, the Spetsnaz, the VDV paratroopers, I knew there was no way they weren't sending the best they had. The Russian military underestimated their opponent, and the Ukrainians surprised the hell out of them.
Even if Russia won this war it still the most humiliating war that the Russians fought since the winter war heck even the 1920'S polish soviet war pales comparison to this a sh*tshow of a war today.
Or maybe the best they have is still crap.
When I heard how quickly the Ukrainians drove the VDV out of that airport I knew the Russians were screwed.
more like NATO helped them prepare for 8 years.
@@jamiekamihachi3135 The VDV are trash. Always have been. Their entire existence is just on big psyop against Russia’s enemies and Russians themselves. They’re selected to look scary, but it’s all hot air.
Or was hot air. How many are there even left of them, I wonder.
As a rule of thumb you send in your best troops with the best equipment to engage and push, your 2nd and 3rd line units follow up and hold captured territory. This gives you less experienced troops a learning curve without throwing them directly into the line of fire en mass.
That is even more the case if you want to execute a Blitzkrieg style quick decapitation strike on the opponents military or political command structure. According to reports that was one of the goals the Russians, at least initially, had, to take Kyiv and either kill or detain Zelensky and his government, while trying to overwhelm other Ukrainian forces east of the Dniper river.
Absolutely. Good troops, good planning, solid execution. Get inside your enemy's decision cycle. Make him react to you. None of this is possible with conscript soldiers. Now the Russians are bogged down and its become a stalemate.
@@josephryan9230 I Why wouldn't conscripts be able to do that? Training and motivation are the main determining factors, and that seems to been lacking a lot regardless if professional or conscripts.
The big issue with the Russian conscripts is that they should not have been participating at all, as the understanding is that they exclusively are to be used in defence of the own soil, something Putin publicly underlined the day before he admitted that they in fact were deployed to Ukraine.
@@johanmetreus1268 Yes, training and motivation are key. Absolutely. Russia conscripts have traditionally been treated very poorly and draft avoidance has been endemic in Russia for decades as a result. Poorly motivated conscripts are not going to absorb training and strive to be good soldiers; they're just going to go through the motions until they can get through their time in the military.
In a place like Israel, conscription works, because young men and women there are motivated to defend their country and they're not abused as soldiers. Same with Finland. Russia's a long way from that, which is reflected in the poor performance of its soldiers in Ukraine.
Which underscores your point that conscripts should not have been used in this fight.
@@josephryan9230 I think the interviewed people fully support your description of Russian military service.
th-cam.com/video/tCsswh7L3QM/w-d-xo.html
My point though was (legal matters of deploying those Russian ones abroad aside) that I often see the distinction between "professional soldiers" and "conscripts" being used as "good/rubbish" when there's plenty of of examples of rubbish professionals and great conscripts.
Just look at the Irish as Jadotville, who prior to that was generally regarded as little more than civilians in disguise, destined to run at first sign of trouble, in spite of all of them being well motivated volunteers.
Not sure how credible I'd say these videos are, but they do offer an explanation of the somewhat erratic behaviour in certain regions.
th-cam.com/video/6wExLrR6if0/w-d-xo.html
"I'm going to make a few more of these."
30 videos and 7 months later 🤣
Keep up the good work Perun.
The highlight of my Sunday, every week.
Perun deserves his own TV show
Something my mother kept telling me was finally proven right before my very eyes: "Russian army only looks intimidating on parades and nowhere else"
They look pretty on parades....they march well.....but.can.they fight?.....noooo...not inless its a maturnity ward or a childrens hospital. They are shelling!!!
@@hamzarorick4875 not sure that’s true, I think this has a huge mentality effect. If Russians where defending their land then they would fight like lions. But I honestly think the men have zero moral and don’t agree with the war. Subconsciously, it effects you. They just aren’t fighting as hard for something they don’t believe in.
Not that they are not trying, but a motivation to survive is bigger than taking land that’s not yours.
Also I think the core higher trained troops are much smaller than what the west believed, poor training and poor equipment.
Ukraines troops have all the motivation and fire in their belly’s to fight to the last bullet.
Brave men
@@hamzarorick4875 Yes, fighting like cowards that they always were
@@Andriej69 cowards that suffered the most losses during ww2 and pushed back nazis to berlin. Ask Polish ppl about Tragedia Wołynia. This is a small part. You must be young or being brainwashed or just uneducated , hope you are young .
@@damedusa5107 there's probably some truth to that, and in addition to morale, on home turf they would have better logistics (especially considering that Russian logistics is heavily railway based, something they can't use in Ukraine, but would have complete access to in Russia), population support etc.
But corruption would still be there
As I was saying to my friend, who too had this idea in mind “This is just the first wave”
“What if this IS the Russian military?!”
Why would anyone try a BlitZZkrieg but send in the worst of the worst to give the enemy enough time to recover from this surprise attack and take good defensive positions?!
Well Deep Operation ISN'T Blitzkrieg, although that's not to say they send trash first, but Soviet/Russian doctrine is very different from Germany. Their only similarities is that they were both pioneering doctrine of combined arms, but they are otherwise quite opposite.
You realize how big Russia and the Russian Millitary is?
Russia gambled on the Ukrainian military immediately collapsing with little to no resistance like in Crimea 2014. Putin ordered the units on the border very suddenly to invade. They were not given any time to get ready, make battle plans, gather intel, and they only had enough logistics to last a few days tops, and that's without any real fighting maneuvers.
Let's not forget also give good weapons that they can now use against you.
Gotta let the sanctions really kick in and destroy your economy first. This way even if you eventually win, you still lose. Putin is playing that real 5D chess.
December 2021: "Russia has the second most powerful military in the world!"
March 2022: "Russia has the second most powerful military in Ukraine."
Ukraine is hardly fighting alone, in case you haven't worked out who is supplying and assisting them.
@@m0rvidusm0rvidus18 Sure, it matters, but to be blunt the equipment doesn't decide the war. They had a massive stock of weapons, and had been given many modern ones after 2014. It'll become more relevant over time, but I'm pretty sure they would have at least as much success for the first two weeks, and make as far as a month without any support beyond sanctions.
@@RobinTheBot "Sure, it matters, but to be blunt weapons don't decide the war."
@@RobinTheBot are you trolling? You cannot say that with a straight face that equipment doesn't decide war. Legit the internet is full of soft, inexperienced boys talking about things they shouldn't. That is a categorically false statement. In fact I can guarantee you without the equipment supplied since the Crimea invasion and this recent one the war would have been entirely one sided. Equipment does decide and win wars along with morale and logistics
@@chaddicusmaximusdestroyero8259
I take it you are not a soldier or veteran.
Take it from one...the guy is correct.
Equipment/weapons don't decide the outcome of a war.
Trained personel to operate the equipment and just as important the logistics to support them do.
Here is one example from personal experience.
NATO has regular war games in Norway.
One of the largest contributors in manpower and modern equipment is the US.
After the first week of a 4 week exercise troup strength of US forces was down to 25% of deployed troops due to lack of training of how to use their winter gear correctly.
Troops from nations that train their soldiers in winter warfare were still over 99% combat effective at that time.
No one chooses to humiliate themselves on the world stage. You don’t need to overthink it. This is their best. It’s not fooling anyone.
man this vid is not good, they didnt attack on large scale cause they though ukraines would fight with them, given theire history
@@nilsmeyer7278 Exactly mate.They have the capability to wipe out whole of Ukraine in a few days .It's a cultural thing.There are a lot of Russian speaking pro Russian people in Ukraine which have been oppressed by the Hunta regime for years and were waiting for this operation to take place.
Most westerners don't understand that.
@@phoenix5694 thats what putin says, but if it is that way, its no justification. And I mean the lack of ukrainans helping the russians should also be against that statement
Lol, so this video is bad but you can't refute a single argument? Weird. Russia expecting to get greeted with flowers is a massive intelligente failure, another thing they are incredibly bad at. As this video proofs, Russia is loosing top notch equipment. How do you explain that? Guess you can't. Just face the facts: They tried their best and got smacked.
@@nilsmeyer7278
"Given their history"
That's EXACTLY why they should have known that Ukraine would tell them to piss off. Ukraine lived under damn near total oppression from the Soviet Union, with multiple famines and purges affecting them massively. When the Union fell, Ukraine was beyond happy.
"Ivan, the 3-month conscript, wasn't pulling air-assault duty at Hostomel." LOL! That line is funny as hell!
Damn Skippy!
Ivan is armed with the most advanced Mosin-Nagant and precision iron sights 'target guidance'
@@ABC-qd5oc I can kill this tank with my balls and a Cocktail! A Drone with Hellfire ACP-2 nose cone? Way faster!
@@ABC-qd5oc "Comrade. When you hold gun like this you shoot moar accurately for fear of hitting fingers." No need for fancy optics /s
@@Darkfyreofthezenith Where do I know that line from?
I do believe it was in "Lions for Lambs" where the U.S. Marines were asked why you don't want to engage an enemy for a long time. The answer was that they'll adapt to their tactics. The Ukrainians have had 8 years of training to adapt to the Russian's tactics.
If the new flag wavers had sent the taliban same weapons, US n UK would have been smashed to pieces lol
@@ifv2089 quite probable. However, in Iraq top level mortar teams were sent in and initially they were smashing the troops to bits. With already gaining superior air space and special forces on the ground, they were quickly eliminated. On the ground intelligence indicated they were sent from prominent world stage country SF teams. Your point on weaponry is valid, NLAW etc would have been disastrous, but I believe the troops would have adapted to that threat too. Just higher casualties
@@si0054 In 2009 My unit got hit by Recoilless rifles that punched clean through our MRAP's cage armor and were told by Intel that those weapons didn't exist in Afghanistan. Thankfully we suffered no KIA, but we had to bring back pictures of the ordnance fragments to prove what we were getting hit by
@@MisterW0lfe Amen brother, you validate my point well there. We highly suspected Iranians and forces currently in world media at play in supporting tactics. Very much expected considering we taught the Afghan Mujahideen how to implement guerrilla warfare tactics and supplied them with ground to air missiles.
@@si0054 Iran didn't just provide motar training.. ied training was also there number one priority and this caused higher casulties, if they knew what was being used over there be bigger problems
I'm very glad taliban never figured it out tbh
There motars didn't destroy us, they were good with em But spent over two years in Iraq and it made little difference, we could still conduct normal routine and operations from basra Palace and other static locations
N I was there during worst of the IDF in the Palace.. was funny but not a game changer.. the IEDs were nuts
The fact that the Moskva was sunk would seem to prove your point.
MIGHTY RUSSIAN VESSEL MOSCOW WAS NOT SINKING. IS FIRST EVER SUBMARINE ARTILLERY PLATFORM. PEACE-LOVING PEOPLES BE IN AWE OF GREAT SOVIET TRIUMPH.
We sunk one of there best.
@@douglaslamb7267 , "We"? lol, sure champ
@@carinhall4508 Thank you
Ukraine: Dear Russia, we owe you an apology. A new recruit was manning the targeting station on that missile battery and was told to shoot two missiles at Moskva, not realizing that there was a warship of the same name. We will try to do better next time.
14:44 Just a quick note on the KA-52
Despite it being relatively old compared to other airframes, its focus on crew safety was and still kind of is revolutionary for the Russians. Its survivability was highly rated and one of its big selling points was that whole “ejecto seato” system it featured
Though funnily enough, I don’t think I’ve seen a single picture of a downed Alligator that has actually used its “revolutionary” ejection seat system. Go figure lol
Great airframe potential, hamstrung by SACLOS ATAKA missile. That's why them things keep hovering high and get shot down by Stugna.
Russian military experts: aaaaaany minute now... any minute now... there! You see! Oh wait... thats farm tractor... rinse/repeat
My favourite term was another TH-camr (I forget which) calling this supposed Russian plan Operation Godot.
For those who may not be familiar, the most notable thing about the play 'Waiting For Godot' is that Godot never appears, and may not even exist.
Chariot configuration, very economical.
th-cam.com/video/OSkpIq3T-Zc/w-d-xo.html
@@vonskyme9133 I am SO stealing this one 😂. On top to that, I have an additional story about "Waiting for Godot". I was reading it and was so into the book that I couldn't put it down. I not only hit my head in a traffic lights pole but got lost like a Russian soldier in Ukraine while I was walking and reading the book
Bosnian miltary expert here...
Out of those pictures catalogue, i have seen every, i mean EVERY blown vehicle 10 times each.
Also i have never seen teritory biger than Britain taken in one month
I had a rather lovely exchange with a guy that claimed Russia was using old tanks to "get rid of them in war". His point was that Russia has many old tanks and using them in Ukraine (even though they get mauled) is better than just scrapping them altogether. It's ludicrous. Losing the tank is bad, losing the ammo in said tank is worse and losing the three crewmen is a catastrophe.
A single Javelin costs about as much as the basic cost of conscripting 3 soldiers and their basic training. If you add advanced/specialized training and the training necessary to even just drive (let alone fight) in a tank and one single tank-crew-member costs more than the Javeline.
When you apply that same nonsensical idea of Russia not sending their best soldiers to other branches such as the airforce, what are we expected to believe? Russia sends out green soldiers without experience in fighter jets and helicopters? Russia is dropping off conscripts as paratroopers?
People underestimate the cost of training for tank crewmen and pilots. Just for reference, a fighter pilot in the US will run at a cost of 5.6 *MILLION* dollars to be trained. And that's the low end of the spectrum.
Whenever a plane or helicopter gets show down and the pilots/crew die, it's a massive loss to Russia at a rather small cost for Ukraine.
Your comment is correct and wrong at the same time, becouse you are thinking about Russian army from NATO or even US army point of view, as somone from country that was under soviet rule and now is in NATO and knows the difference in military doctrin/ training of bouth sides i can tell you that you dont take into account corruption, bad training, bad behawior towards enlisted low ranking soldiers, poor command structure in Russian army and it never changed that's why Russian army performs bad, pilots are far wars trained and fly way less hours then NATO pilots, for example army from the NATO country with the same population that Russia will have 400 000 soldiers but all of them will be profesional, Russia will have 1 000 000 but only 100 000 are profesional, rest are enlisted, also NATO army will have 70% of there total equipment ready for combat, Russia only 10% rest is broken, dismounted as spere parts or stolen for sale that is how corruption in autorytarian country works, that is why Russia can't do joint strike operation with mutliply types of forces, before 2014 Ukrain millitary was similar but after Crimea they made reforms and with help from NATO with training and organisation they adopted NATO mind set
But it's all part of "the plan," right?
@@Thorgon-Cross You're very wrong. I don't remember the cost of a Javelin (I'm thinking $40,000) but the idea that it could be anything like the value of a tank with it's ammo and crew is beyond ridiculous. Only an extremely ignorant person would think that for a second. It's a dink-butt missile, pal. Yeah, it has some imaging, radio, and computing stuff in it, but so what? If it were to be made by an ordinary consumer equipment manufacturer rather than some gold-plate weapons tech company, it could probably be produced for a few thousand bucks. Tanks are in the million dollar range, bucko.
@@donnievance1942 Javelin missiles cost 140.000 dollars each.
@@Thorgon-Cross OP was talking about the cost of recruiting and *training* soldiers, not about their AKs and helmets
time proves You right on many takes if not all. many words were confirmed by our Ukrainian military analysts, who are ex high ranking officers.
- why generals are dying still to this day? 1) chain of command falls and they had been sent to oversee it. there were also (how do you call them?) field generals, there were fsb generals too.
- hidden partial mobilization in russian regions proves heavy losses.
- 3 months and old T-64 on the field proves losses in tanks.
- recently it was confirmed death of ex general of air forces. we can at least make an assumption that russia is loosing pilots. or old dog have decided to go for the last flight.
- in Kyiv region journalists identyfied many Vagner group fighters commiting war crimes. those bastards have Syria and Ukrain 2015 experience. i'm talking about killing the civillians war crimes. some witnesses survived and have helped to identify them.
p.s. I apologise for my bad English.
Most of my career was spent watching PowerPoint presentations. I found less than 10% of them interesting. The last thing I'd expect was to watch one on TH-cam and enjoy the insights. Great job, brother!
The fact that Ukraine has been training for guerilla warfare since 2014, also the west providing anti-tank weaponry, the effectiveness of Bayraktar, the fast response of Ukraine destroying bridges, the terrible weather and terrain, and (I assume) the west providing critical Intel to Ukraine to hit key point targets has made Ukraine resistance much stronger.
Yeah, the US/NATO is supplying position/strength intel to the Ukrainians, and that's goes a long way towards maximizing the efficiency of what they've got.
I also wonder if older officers in Ukraine were also trained in Soviet military doctrine then learned western tactics which might give Ukraine forces an advantage.
I think the Ukrainians have everything to lose if Russia seize control whereas the Russians that have been sent are still scratching their arses thinking what’s up Vlad why the fook have you sent me here to fight people I have more in common with than difference. This has become Vlad’s ego and want to treated as the wests number one bad guy instead of what he perceives as some irrelevant Cold War dinosaur which most public see him as.
@@charliepirhonen9734 All those factors definitely come into play.
Honestly, the unsung hero of this war is whatever made the Russians start their invasion during the mud season. Even Operation Barbarossa waited until things dried out in the summertime.
In terms of the quality of equipment lost, I knew Russia was in trouble when Ukraine started capturing MSTA guns in good working order with ammunition in the turret. Those are high quality 152mm self-propelled artillery. They are NOT "cannon fodder" weapons. And the fact that they couldn't pull their arty (which are REMF dudes to begin with) back in time to avoid capture tells me they're not retreating well or, even worse, have very poor cavalry support.
@agapp11able Not been paying attention these last days have you.
@agapp11ableMassive cope and seething right here everybody.
@agapp11able You’re right, Ukraine are retaking towns because the Russian military kindly allow them to, meanwhile Russian troops make a tactical withdrawal. Russia troops are going backwards, but winning at the same time, Putins says so.
@agapp11able Russians are losing territory at a rate of knots. Please keep up.
@agapp11able "willingly surrendered" an oxymoron.
It's weird how current Russian cope is literally based on admitting that they don't give a fuck about the lives of their soldiers and have a very low opinion of their competence.
If I was a Russian soldier, I'm sure I'd feel SUPER motivated to fight for my country and its people, if I believed they viewed me with such naked contempt.
I spent decades doing military operations analysis in the defense industry, and I just want to say that this is outstanding work! It's the best I've seen from any source yet, including the official defense organizations and the myriad Generals who are appearing on news programs everywhere with their take on the war. Just an excellent analysis!
To be fair to the TV generals, they only get about 3 minutes of time, with an anchor contributing their take on things, which is often disheartening to hear coming from an adult.
General McCaffrey: "Ukraine will fall in three weeks."
@@robertplatt1693 Las Vegas tells you NFL scores before every game. They still play.
Book recommendations on military ops analysis?
Hey man, can you tell me how to reach a job like this? I apologize for my poor english, but i want to know more about your qualifications
It still bugs me so much that so many haven't come to realize that the vast majority of the Soviet Union's economic and military strength came from outside of Russia. And having heard from friends and colleagues from Poland and Romania who have businesses in Ukraine, just how much eastern Europe has changed since the Cold War days, I can say that the course of the war thus far is unsurprising.
There's an old joke from Soviet times - Russia and China were making a deal about something and China was laying out what they wanted the Russians to provide. "We want 100,000 tons of coal," said the Chinese negotiator, and "50,000 tons of steel." The Russian nodded politely, "100 ocean going freighters, biggest latest model". "But of course," said the Russian representative. "And 100,000 bicycles." At this, the Russian diplomat jumped from his chair shouting and swearing. Eventually he composed himself and his Chinese counterpart responds, "Begging your pardon sir, but there seems to be a problem that we did not anticipate regarding the bicycles. All of our other requests seemed to be quite well received. In the interest of better understanding for the future, could you enlighten us, please."
"Poland," said the Russian negotiator, "does not make bicycles."
romanian here, can confirm.
@@oldwot3888 Everything was produced in satelites of moscow, thats normal for imperiums, just look at USA they are now struggling with China as they outsorced a lot of production, still US is in much better shape, but still it has its cost. Hungary after empire fall lost some of the resources and only one big city stayed. They feel like they were robbed of its possesions, it needs changing of mindset which is hard. I am from former Czechoslovakia and soviet system was somehow able to operate but still after dissolution Russians have been repaying us debts from soviet era, as they actually were receiving goods bud didnt pay...they had nothing but the power...and eventually lost the power too. Putin made a huge mistake that he shifted back to oil pump. Probably because russians are too corrupted and cant do anything sophisticated? Still a wealthy country, but why on earth is that wealt good for when all you can do is to rob your own people and own resources and spend them abroad. Still its hard, as everything Russian has a bad stamp...and now they buried any chance to change it. China will eat russia alive.
The vast majority of Soviet Union's economic and military strength came from synergy. All of the post-Soviet republics put together wouldn't match its industrial output or its military or economic might. The whole Union was interconnected, the republics were DELIBERATELY made to rely on each other, to make the dissolution an undesirable choice under any circumstances.
@@simonmeszaros2770 if you try to "do anything", you step on the toes of extremely powerful and ruthless people who like how things are right now. Corruption isn't the root of the problem, the insulated upper class that has the license to kill is the problem. We have been a colonial holding of German noble house of Holstein-Gottorp for hundreds of years, and a subject of the Mongol Horde for centuries before that. The Poles, too, treated Rus' as their fiefdom. Moscow isn't the metropolitan center of these empires - it's merely a provincial capital of these states.
The people I'm talking about, they're carrying on these traditions of external rule. They don't live in Russia, they don't care for it. They care about their own wealth, power, about their families, and nothing else. If they stay, corruption will stay too. But you can't make them go because every instrument that's supposed to make them go is staffed with people who are subject to corruption and coercion.
“We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.”
― Archilochus, Greek Poet
“Optimism and stupidity are nearly synonymous.”
― Admiral H.G. Rickover, Father of the US Nuclear Navy
“Stupid Optimism” is an unpleasant pet phrase that has occurred to me over the years. Didn’t know it had occurred to others. I thought they were (lots) smarter than I am, and hence needed so such reminders.
It has served me well when I have heeded it.
I was going to go with some Marcus Aurelius' wise words but you, you good sir are foot and shoulder above my meagre knowledge.
Out of it all is revealed what exists in the hearts of men.
Lust, war, hate and the love of money, pride.
All perfectly descriptive of what the bible says man is.
Yet, some of us have that God given discernment to not just see the truth but to prophesy what is going to happen next.
What a gift.
All pieces are lining up.
Soon there will be massive changes all over the world and those who fail to hear His calling will perish when the hail starts falling.
You may not be here for the worst of it but your children surely will be here.
More shitty memes. Is that all you got?
@@dennisyoung4631 on the other hand, "stupid optimism" or faith in yourself is something very helpful when trying to do something difficult and really hard to get. That's why many smart people end up rather unsuccessful because they often don't even try to do something when the probability of success if low. Of course, you need to stay in contact with the reality and assess our risks. I know some guys, rather intelligent and proud of their pessimistic view on the world. They think they're realistic but it just keeps them down, they might have gone so much further but they've gotten too gloomy and depressed by now, wasted way too many possibilities. Yet, I had a group mate ate the uni, pretty dumb, dull and shallow. Pretty bad at what she was doing too...and...one of the most successful of the bunch. Go figure.
The finnish military intelligence noticed that the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade was sent away from Pechenga ( Petsamo) north of Finland when the war started. It was one of the two arctic brigades with special training. It has allegedly suffered heavy losses near Kharkiv and is currently withdrawn because of the losses making it unable to operate anymore. Furthermore they noticed that the base Alakurtti 50 km from the finnish border in the north has been depleted of units.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/200th_Separate_Motor_Rifle_Brigade
Something that I've thought about but hadn't really applied is just how much information there is in this war. People should appreciate, the ability to make these estimates and analyze them in real time is unprecedented.
Yeah, information technology, especially for public use has been growing since the Vietnam War. Vietnam was called the Television War. We are now in the Smartphone Age.
Your commitment to Objectivity, and disclosure of any Bias, and trying to remove it - is acknowledged, and appreciated 👍
- thank you.
I love that it takes you 8 min to talk about which data you place your interpretation on, how it was gathered and how we can replicate...great contribution and good scientific attitude.
The Russian 1st Guards Tank Army has been withdrawn from the Sumy area. The 1st Guards is known as one of the most elite and advanced units in the Russian Army. It's considered a prestigious army to be assigned to, since its home base is near Moscow. They are clearly not just "cannon fodder."
You can still be a freshie regardless of the army. The Rifles are the best of the UK Squaddies (Not counting Spec - Para, Engineers, SBS etc.) but they get fresh recruits still and freshies will typically not fair as well as prestige. Even if they're given the best kit. Russia is in foreign territory, fighting insurgents who live sleep and breathe the territory. Freshies don't stand a chance.
To Russians, I don’t think the word, "Elite" means what they think it means.
Thanks for that info. Been to Sumy City 9 times. Family there.
They are cannon fodder now.
@@elias_xp95 It's why you have junior nco's and senior nco's. they are there to mentor and guide including protect. No modern unit in any professional army is dependent on recruits as a vanguard.
It's interesting to note,that during previous altercations in which the Soviet union was the agressor, all the way back to 1860, the Ukrainian state was at the forefront of Russian advances. They have always been the Soviet spearhead in conflict. This is why the Russians are finding it hard to engage the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian advantage is they know Russian methodology, Russian tactics and Russian faults. They also implicitly know Russian technology and military hardware. The Russian military is in fact meeting a better form of itself plus the advantage of the Ukrainian military ( bolstered by civilian assistance) is in a defensive posture. Giving an emotional and pragmatic advantage to the defenders.( Ukraine)
And now they're attacking rather than defending from the Russuans and still keeping up a 3:1 ratio which is almost unheard of for an attacking force against entrenched defenders.
I really appreciate you not monetizing this video and encouraging support through worthy means; that says a lot about your character. Keep up the good work and excellent content.
that says he've got paid by someone else :D
@@BlaBla-lt2pw Probably analyst contractors
There is an alternative theory as to why the officers are dying. Some have died at their main command post not on the front lines. The theory is that the Ukrainians, or someone friendly to them, are decrypting Russian coms and getting the generals location from that and doing a highly accurate decapitation strike. Whether these are done with Bayraktar drones, GPS accurate artillery or fighters is unknown. As a signaler I see clear signs that the Russian communications are so insecure that officers are using western walkie talkies and cell phones. However we also see Ukrainians doing the same things, walkie talkies and cell phones, but they are not loosing commanders to strikes. Someone has a new toy that no-one knows about.
Or an old toy no-one knows about... i mean we now know the CIA has a heart attack gun since 1975.
I think that we can rule in an internal betrayal for some reasons. Possible power struggle inside the Russian army in preparation of a putsch to overthrow Putin and his clique. Maybe the most pro-Putin officers are deliberately left in the open by their peers after their position had been leaked on purpose to the Ukrainian military. Let the ennemy do the job for you, even if it means helping him to do it : he will keep for him the way he get the intel, and nobody can suspect an inside job if everybody keeps it shut up. Simple, effective, and with an high degree of plausible denial. Take it with a grain of salt, it's an hypothetical thought, but a plausible one.
@@OlivierGabin There's also that governments on the intelligence agency side of things then to be extremely paranoid about exactly that, military putsch. Could also very well be Putin getting rid of well liked Generals...
@@SeaRaven227 If there is infighting in the Russian command then that is very good news for Ukraine but bad news for the world. One thing we do not want to do is to take an action that makes Putin so desperate that he starts using nuclear weapons. A slow and steady win is a non provocative win.
That may also be why we have not seen as many big armored pushes from Ukraine. A large part of its armor is probably blocking north of Lutz, and on the Dnieper river and east of Odessa.
@@SeaRaven227 While from a logical power politics way of thinking that does make sense, it completely ignores that in the middle of a losing war is probably not the best time to start offing your own officers... At least if you want to win the war. Then again, perhaps Putin has already given up and accepted the L, and is now cleaning house of anyone who might be a threat to him since he'll now be a tzar who lost a war...
This shows how a lesser adversary can put up a decent fight against a much larger and more powerful invader.
A high morale, defending their homeland, excellent intelligence support from NATO, western weaponry, financial support, contagious bravery, professional, well trained and experienced soldiers, have made Ukraine a very tough opponent.
I would wager that it sgows how pre-conflict evaluations can be off. The lesser adversary appears to be quite adequate.
maybe next time russia will take a page from the american playbook and bomb a city to the stone age before rolling in.
They (Ukraine) were not even using modern western weapons when they initially stopped the advance. Ukraine had a bunch of late cold-war era equipment and modern Russian weapons. Only after those have been largely depleted have we seen the Ukraine using modern western weapons to great effect.
@@DrewAlphaable not heard of this. Using the old google now lol
This is also the reason why prior to operation Desert Storm which was made up of a massive highly trained western coalition against a large but very technologically inferior and poorly trained enemy STILL began with a full FIVE WEEK long aerial and naval bombardment.
Russia just trundled in after a month of sitting on the border hoping Ukraine wouldn't notice
It truly is amazing that in a world full of nonsense and propaganda, in comes this (no disrespect intended) relatively unknown creator to drop a well researched and thoughtful truth bomb right on target. The good creators don’t teach me in as much as they make me realise just a little more how much I don’t actually know .
Of course Russia isn’t sending their good troops in. That would require having good troops in the first place.
It's not the troops, it's the leadership. There's a centuries long tradition of incompetence and corruption
Then why hasnt ukraine won yet
"they weren't even trying."
In Soviet Russia, we plan to fail!
In football, you don’t run your weakest players out there and run your least effective plays against the opponent in the 1st quarter to lull the opponent into a false sense of security. In baseball, you don’t have your weakest hitters bat early in the lineup to wear the opposing pitcher out. “There is only one tactical principle that is not subject to change. That is to inflict the maximum amount of damage on the enemy in the minimal amount of time.” -General George S. Patton
Yeah its a bit silly. In the two scraps I've been in, i didn't start with low effort and save my "best moves" for later.
@@abelq8008 While generally i'd agree, there are reasons sometimes for not starting with your strongest moves.
The most major is because escalation is not desired/considered necessary.
Example:
2 people fighting
Person A may have a knife but decide not to pull it.
Similarly Person B may have a gun.
A brawl is different from a knife fight, from a gun fight.
So that may be a reason to hold back.
That does not mean that this is the case in this situation.
There are suggestions that the Russians did not expect the resistance they got. As a captured supply truck filled with dress uniforms may suggest.
"The art of war is simple enough. Find out where your enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can, and keep moving on." - General Ulysses S. Grant
@@chaosXP3RT True, yet if war is the continuation of diplomacy with other means, then the reverse is also true.
The (perceived) requirements of diplomacy can put limits on the actions of combat.
As a soldier it is a horrible situation as it is fighting with your hands tied behind your back. However political leadership may not care about that.
Another example would be that a number of warsaw pact doctrines started of with blasting a hole in NATO lines using tactical nukes.
Politically that was WAY too dangerous.
Ranks and officers are filled with uneducated dregs who can’t avoid conscription with bribes or little choice as to possible career field or offer any threat to the regime. Military are low on the food chain in RF.
Their "best" is already dead. NOW is the cannon fodder phase. Now and till the end of the war.
It's Dec. 31, last day of 2022, still waiting for Russia to send their "best".
Of course they're not sending conscripts first. This innacurate conclusion is caused by the poor performance of their military over all. You don't send children first and then their elders to collect their remains. That would be the most ignorant thing any invader would do.
The fact is that they're simply untrained and that their equipment is, on average, not maintained well. Not to mention the incredibly low morale which makes for the majority of the issue. They're also not fed appropriately and have no logistical support. All a clear demonstration of incompetence.
Their most successful piece of propaganda for the last hundred years was convincing everyone that they're something they're clearly not.
That is what I was taught.
There are LITERALLY PHOTOS of Russian children in the battlefield. How did they ended up there ? Magic ? They wanted to go to Hogwarts ?
I don't say most of them are conscript either, but there are for sure.
@@bazingapuzza Where?
For children i mean 18* years old. Not actually children. But they do look like 14 years old.
Ofc they are not fit for the war nor have the necessary training.
@@cstgraphpads2091 there is a telegram group called " conflict zone ". But you need to look after those specific photos. I was them long time ago.
I guess from an Infantry perspective, the most important counterargument to sending the bad troops first, is that those bad troops are extremely useful in policing already controlled land. You don't have enough cool guys to hold all that territory. Definitely don't want to kill those lower quality troops in a mission they can't have succeeded in and not have anyone to actually occupy the country.
There's also been numerous reviewers of the open source intel which are coming to similar conclusions - that the failure is C(4) rather than the simplistic "conscript bad" claims. When seeing how armor isn't supported by infantry, or ADA isn't successful, or aviation assets aren't protecting supplies, it seems like there's some legitimate grounds for criticism.
@@fyrchmyrddin1937 No tactical planner with a brain would distribute forces by some simplistic rule like "I'll put all the conscript units in front to soak up bullets" or "I'll put all my conscripts in the rear for low demand duties." That being said, the elite troops and the best gear is always going to be the point of the spear. It's hard to believe that there are some idiots who think that even Russian generals are dumb enough to put their green conscript troops out in front and just use them up to tire the enemy out.
Saw a long interview with a former Marine who explained that the Russian army problem was one of structure. Armies in the West are "bottom up". The goal, reasons, conditions, potential problems and steps to take in case of trouble are explained to everyone from cooks to drivers to pilots. We consider troops important enough to take time explaining the details of a mission
The Russian model is "top down". "Someone" decides a goal and orders troops to perform certain actions - attack, dig, hold, bomb, etc - all without knowing the goal., Rank and file are so insignificant they do not warrant an explanation of the dangers or alternative actions when things go badly. The result is hungry troops, no fuel, broken vehicles, troops standing around for days, indiscriminate bombing, acts of savagery and cruelty and surrender.
The German army started doing this in WW1 it was too hard running the battle far from the rear.
@@wickman008 makes sense when you have to use pigeons to communicate
Sounds like Soviet troops and strategy during the Winter War. Poorly trained, poorly led, underfed and under armed--they forced their troops into headlong charges into machine guns. Losses were in the hundreds of thousands--possibly up to 10,000 a day at times. Food consisted of black bread and tea. The soldiers were starving to death--always just about to freeze to death. Being wounded meant freezing to death in minutes.
@@robertwatson818 wow hectic. One soul think that a few hour or days of thinking things through would allow commanders to realise this was bad and come up with creative alternatives.
@@myspacetimesaucegoog5632 In the Winter War the Finnish machine gunners slaughtered tens of thousands of Russian soldiers--so many that some of the gunners became mentally unhinged and had to be relieved of duty to recover their senses. This gives a small idea of the enormity of the lack of concern for their soldiers. Nikita Khrushchev later admitted they suffered a MILLION killed during that war.
00:00 Introduction
01:57 In war, rumours rise to fill gaps in knowledge
03:04 Claim: "Russia is only sending their second line units"
04:31 The Idea
05:27 So how do we test that idea?
06:33 visually verified equipment losses / Oryx
08:52 Equipment losses: expectation vs. data
09:16 Tanks
12:08 Other systems categories
13:50 Air force
15:30 Yes, we have seen some trash.
17:16 What about the units?
20:09 It's not just frontoviki dying.
21:34 Takeaways
25:51 Outro
The real MVP
PIN IT!
Russia's military budget is only 8 percent of the US military budget, and a lot of that budget was stolen. For those of us who closely studied the Russian military over time this was no surprise.
Imagine the CHINEESE mentality,there more capitalist than the west.
It's been interesting hearing from a number of former NATO and US European military commanders saying they're not really surprised because they've known the Russian military was rubbish for years. Seems like the civilian consultants western governments love so much these days got completely suckered in by Russian propaganda.
@@BurfieldPhoto1 Perhaps. I know that I was laughed at when I predicted this sort of outcome, even though a impartial examination of the available facts should have made this outcome or some version of it likely. At least I am on paper saying that they were overrated before the War.
There is only so much one can do with 8 percent of the US military budget and a system resistant to change and rife with corruption.
I taught on Soviet Capabilities during the Cold War, and our counterparts in the Soviet Union kept telling us we were grossly overestimating Soviet military capabilities. Even back then some Soviet scholars told us in private that they were capable of about a tenth of what we estimated. I think that at least part of it was that the powers that be WANTED us to be terrified in order to justify our incredibly high military budgets.
@@oscarsusan3834 I have a feeling that the Chinese are unhappy that they have pretty much modelled most of their military equipment, including tanks and jets, on Soviet models.
@@georgehollingsworth2428 yeah I believe about 7 years ago NATO wargaming concluded Russia would defeat their in theatre forces in 60 hrs. At the same time Russia estimated NATO would defeat them in 6 hrs.
I think there's a tendency to be dazzled by the flashy equipment. Head to head a Russian tank is as good as an American tank, a Russian fighter is as good as an American fighter, so if Russia supposedly has more, they will win, but it ignores the training and competence of the people using them, and the logistics supporting them.
Russian fighter pilots apparently barely get enough flying hours to stay certified for take off and landing under western standards, and Russia's entirely military has something like 6,000 logistics trucks while the US Army alone has about 200,000. The Russian military also apparently don't do any combined arms exercises at all, where as western forces do them all the time.
Those things matter far more than how good your 5th Generation Fighter is.
I found your channel because of your first Russia-Ukraine analysis. If you enjoy making these, it ought to be a regular thing here.
same
Same! 💥
Agreed
same 😗👌
Seconded. Subscribed for more like this
I really miss these older videos with your casual jokes. The professionalism is so much accented by the dry humor that keeps what bleak in this world at least hopeful for us and be supportive. I know this is too much to ask but a casual stream from you discussing these topics will be bomb and financially supportive as well. Please and thank you so much for your content! Best regards.
This analysis has aged well. Turns out the cannon fodder came along at the latter stages of the war.
Yeah because the creme de la creme got wasted early on
Very, very weirdly, I was just on that site last night going over the numbers and came to same equipment conclusions you did, almost verbatim, when explaining this topic to my wife. However, I spent the majority of my adult life as an Intelligence Analyst, so I shouldn't be surprised that standard analytical processes lead to standard analytical assessments.
All that is to say, "I concur with your assessment, having reached my conclusions independantly of yours, and without confirmation bias in regards to your assessment" hahaha
The reason that the Russians are losing modern fighter jets appears to be down to targeting and munitions issues, the SU-34 might be very new but it is being forced to do low level strikes with unguided bombs using a very dated internal optical system called PLATAN. The Russians don't field a modern targeting pod like Litening III or SNIPER XR at all, for that matter they don't even field a targeting pod with the capabilities of the 70's and 80's generation Pave Spike! They have no targeting pods at all!!! They also don't have a wide field of angle high end internal system like EOTS. They did try and buy the Thales Damocles but that fell through and they have a domestic solution in development but that doesn't appear to be anywhere near entering service. What this means is Russian tactical aircraft can't stand off and pick their targets outside the range of MANPADS and SHORADS. On top of that their precision munition stocks are limited and have a performance not unlike what NATO was fielding in the early 80's. Their primary laser guided bomb family the KAB 500L and KAB 1500L are often touted as having a similar performance to Paveway II but from what we have seen we are talking a first generation Paveway II and a poorly maintained one at that. Their stand off missile family the KH-29 is often compared to Maverick but again older variants with TV-Guidance still being a thing for the Russians something the West abandoned long ago.
The Russians can only dream of weapon systems like JDAM, Paveway IV, Brimstone, JSOW and even late model digital variants of Maverick or Paveway II with updated seekers. They also have no capability like ROVER that allows JTACS to integrate with the strike aircraft.
Another factor the Russians might have fielded modernised strike optimised Sukhoi variants but they are relying on GLOSNAS which is by all accounts unreliable forcing them to utilise civilian Garmin GPS c-clamped to the cockpit dashboard which they are forced to input data into manually from a paper crib sheet. They also lack anything like Link-16 and Link-22 meaning they have significantly inferior situational awareness than NATO tactical air. What 1st generation data links they do have relate to the Mig-31 and whilst they have a new system in development with similar properties to Link-16 called OSNOD it is way off being deployed even on the SU-57!
The Russians unlike NATO tactical air appear to have zero capability to roam over the airspace switching targets and missions as required, NATO have spent decades practicing and honing their skills through regular exercises like Red and Green flag complex real time mission operating and planning able to switch aircraft between missions whilst in the air...the Russians show no ability to do that!
Russia didn't loose modern fighter jets. 1 Su-30SM was destroyed on airbase by "Tochka-U" strike (I think the missile was destroyed by air-defence but since it's huge thing the fragments could reach the target and incinerate 1 plane. I saw no evidence of explosions only burning plane on intact airfield. The similar success ukrops had couple of days ago in Berdyansk when fragments of intercepted "Tochka-U" hit landing ships and one was sunk to prevent the munition inside to cook off.) Another Su-30SM claimed to be shot down but from the picture I can't say if it Su-30SM or ukrainian Su-27. That's all with fighters. Ukrops claim 4 Su-34 bombers to be shot down but they can confirm 2-3 at best. Ukraine inherited a lot of powerfull air-defence systems from Soviet Union but in fact they failed against modern Russian Air Forces. Practically ukrainian air forces and air defence were out of the game at the end of 2nd week. Till then Russian MoD said about even air-combats. I don't know if ukraine planes scored any kill in them. Su-30SM and Su-35S outperform Soviet-made Su-27s and MiG-29s in everything especially in electronics and missiles.
The situation is not so good for low-altitude flyers like Su-25 and helicopters which are vulnerable for MANPADs but I can't say that they suffered heavy losses.
Kh-29 and other weapons have a lot of variants including new ones. So comparing with Paweway and etc. looks pretty funny. Soviet Union collapsed 30 years ago. I doubt if Russian Air Forces still have guided munition made in Soviet times. While typical dumb bomb can wait it's time for centures such complex things as guided munition degenerate in time. And there's limitations how many times each munition type can be installed on the plane. So air forces use oldest things first. Since RuAF had a lot of things to bomb in Syria everything from Soviet heritage which still worked should be utilized long ago and replaced by modern models.
Bad news for ukrops they have no guided weapons at all.
>The Russians unlike NATO tactical air appear to have zero capability to roam over the airspace switching targets and missions as required
Sure thing Russians still fly pre WW2 planes without even radios. Not so long ago some imbeciles who had the same thoughts and came to shoot Russians in ukraine and left it after just one missile strike which killied and injured about 200 of them. Suddenly they understood that they have a perspective to meet an enemy with hundreds of tanks, artillary guns and airplanes.
I'm curious, if they do not have organic targeting pods on the aircraft, what is their doctrine to deploy these precision munitions?
What you said seems to be correct, that they don't have the ability to just "roam and attack". Does that mean that they essentially have to have their missions very strictly planned, take off from the base, know where the target is, what it is generally speaking, go there, hit it with ground-assisted guidance, and then go home without really being able to do anything else?
Basically WWII CAS, but with jets...
@@Laotzu.Goldbug yup that sounds like what they have to do every time they drop a precision guided munition. They might as well just rely on blanketing areas with artillery fire and carpet bombing with unguided dumb bombs like what was done in ww2 to get the job done.
@@beltar2
And over 16k Russian imbezils that came to Ukraine to shoot Ukrainians, have their guts spilled and grilled...
@@Laotzu.Goldbug Russia can deploy precision munitions like LGB but they are using internal narrow field camera and laser marker systems.
We have strong evidence from captured paper crib sheets found in downed aircraft that they are following strictly planned missions.
Your presentation felt to me genuine and well thought
Its a nice change of pace from the shorts drips of information (or misinformations) that generally being shared thru social media
Your content is literally a medicine for me
Thank you
They're definitely using cannon fodder now 😂 only because they have nothing left though, not because they're "holding their best in reserves"
This was an excellent video. I would make one extra note however.
There are actually two versions of this myth. The first is the one you addressed in this video: Russia is sending in only conscripts and old equipment, therefore the Russians will do better once they send in their best.
The second version is a bit different: Russia sent in inexperienced, under supported, and poorly led troops who failed to win despite their more modern equipment due to incompetence and corruption within the Russian military. Their more experienced troops are still in Syria and their troops with the best equipment are being held back for “internal security.” Therefore the Russians may do better once their Syrian troops arrive.
This second myth has some more merit to it. “The problem isn’t the systems, it’s the men who are using the systems.” War is not just about numbers. For a long time we’ve known the Russians have a large number of conscripts in their military and that there is significant corruption within the chain of command. This means that even some of their best units are not well trained, not very experienced, and led by incompetent officers. Meanwhile the Ukrainians have rotated their military through the Donbass for the past 8 years, allowing them to gain experience in fighting, leadership, and logistics. As you stated in one of your previous videos, the Russian military is mostly an internal security force, and is not trained and equipped for this kind of war.
Even this myth has problems however. It is true that we have not seen their units from Syria enter the conflict yet, and we have not seen the new Russian equipment in the field. However it’s unlikely we will see this equipment at all, and the Syrian units have also shown to have gaps in their operational performance. Putin needs his best units (read “most loyal” units) at home in case of a coup attempt or popular uprising. He will therefore not send these units into Ukraine. Meanwhile, the units in Syria fought against mostly disorganized, poorly equipped (from a modern perspective), and inexperienced rebel and independent forces. In the few cases where they fought more well equipped, experienced troops, they took significant casualties and sometimes failed to achieve their objectives. This puts their potential effectiveness in Ukraine in question.
This is a good point, but I have to bring up a counterpoint in that the Russian Army in Syria didn't actually gain a lot of valuable experience. There is an interview floating around with a supposed Wagner Group mercenary who believes this to be true. In his estimation, certain elements under the 'Russian Military' umbrella gained meaningful experience, such as the Air Forces and small sectors of their ground deployments. However, the rank-and-file ground troops spent a lot of time escorting convoys in areas where ambushes are easily spotted, against a non-peer opponent severely lacking in training, intelligence, and material. This last point is worth noting because while the Syrian rebels were supplied by America, they received nowhere near the quantity or quality of the types of weapons platforms that are having a huge impact in Ukraine. Arguably the biggest Ukrainian gamechangers like Bayraktars, Javelins, NLAWs and MANPADS never existed in the hands of Syrians opposing the Russian troops. And this hasn't even included the incredibly up-to-date intel provided to Ukraine by NATO as well as almost a decade of dedicated military training by various western nations.
Troops returning from Syria to Russia and getting deployed to Ukraine will certainly be more battle hardened than many that look currently like shell shocked conscripts, but I think it's a reasonable conclusion that truly elite, hardened infantry and ground troops will be, like the "advanced" Armata tanks and Su-57 fighters, either nonexistent or in too small of a number to matter.
The russian participation in the syrian camapaign was mostly an Air force and Special forces which has already been deployed to ukraine
@@gotanon8958 We did see even the same people, one of pilots shot down over Chernikhov has a selfie with Assad.
Though I have heard an idea that Syria taught Russians the wrong things - they operated several planes against enemy with no AA. Here where they have to carry out operations on larger scale against prepared enemy, their experience is not only useless, but may even hinder them.
The idea that the Ukrainians have been rotating their military into the Donbas region or that they've gained any useful experience can't be proven, so it too is simply a myth. Likewise, the idea that Russian troops in Syria "took significant casualities" etc. etc. when facing "more well equipped, experienced troops" likewise can't be proven.
What can be proven is that the Russian military in Ukraine is simply not making use of what they have in any truly effective sense, which inflates the performance of the Ukrainian military. Any retard with a rocket can destroy a parked, abandoned tank.
@@joshuayung5158 That remains to be seen. Even small numbers will matter here because Ukraine simply does not have the same capacity for warmaking that Russia does. Remember, Ukraine has had to mobilize their entire military PLUS civilian reserves while Russia has mobilized MAYBE one fifth of their active duty units for Ukraine.
"Bruh, Russia is totally a military super-power equal to China and USA, bro they're just not trying hard enough, bro they have super-duper sonic warheads, bro..."
I've heard a load about those but why haven't they've been seen? Like if they had enough they'd be swinging that dick around and hitting as many high value political targets as possible. Bragging with a sports car and driving away in a beater means you were bluffing.
Well... They might be equal to China, the CCP has it's own history of corruption, bribery, corner cutting, embezzlement of funds, and so on, and adds up to these kinds of poor results.
I'm sure there are a lot of folks in China having panic attacks over how poorly Russia's Ukrainian adventures have gone and are looking at their Taiwan plans with horrified doubts...
The failure of the Russian airborne assault on Kiev in the opening days of the war by its elite Spetsnaz forces was an early indicator that Russia would not perform well.
Who doesn't send their best if they want a quick and sure victory?
Also, Lazerpig sent me
I like that you acknowledge areas where bias could sneak in, and make the attempt to adjust for it. It has been so difficult to peer through the fog of war, and I really appreciate the service you are providing in that regard.
Both of these videos have been incredibly helpful, and I look forward to seeing more on these topics from you.
He only does that to give the appearance of bias. IF YOU LISTENT CLOSELY, he's making a very strong case that directly opposes that. He speaks with conviction about what is happening, then puts into fine print that there may be bias, as a throw-away and it works on weak minded people that are that easily fooled.
DON'T FORGET, THE UKRAINIAN ARMY IS MOSTLY USING RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT AS THEIR OWN. LOL So without live video of both sides engaging, it's incredibly easy to pass them off as Russian loses.
@@WatchingTrainsGoBy-PassingTime Whatever Rusin equipment that Ukraine might "Pass off" as a "Russian loss" was indeed already a Russian loss, or the Ukrainians would not have it. If you mean that Ukraine is using Russian types of equipment in the Ukrainian and faking them as Russian, it might be easy to tag a tank with a Z, but to eliminate the distinctive Ukranian camo pattern would require a full repaint.
_Most people do tend to belive only what is trending on social media_
@@dbergerac9632 a good explosion and angle does a lot to hide that Camo pattern, but yeah I agree with your point, at the end of the day it's mostly a matter of having multiple images, which also add a indication of Where the images where taken, (I've played Geoguessr, It's an absolute pita to find those)
This is an extremely important point which is completely glossed over wherever the war is being discussed. You and I have no real grasp of what's _actually_ happening down there, let alone old Martha (age 60, location Huntington beach, CA) on twitter discussing matters she has no real grasp or knowledge of. Observing the rampant propaganda from not only the Russians but Ukrainians and the west has been really interesting to see.
The rampant misinformation clouding what's going on makes it nearly impossible to tell if what you're seeing are rumors drawn from this information void left by the fog of war by clueless journalists, propaganda stemming from the virtual battleground or actual, verifiable, trustworthy info.
It is important to stay highly critical of basically anything you hear of the war, and I suppose after it's over it'll be a relevation for most of the clueless as to how misinformation works when the facts are established.
The situation has very much broken the myth of the Russian "super power".
That myth ended when the Soviet Union collapsed and we discovered their tanks and aircraft were obsolete and the navy just rusting hulks.
Spreading troops out too thin half way incircling Ukraine .... was unable to accomplish it's objectives. And not greeted with candy and flowers didn't help either. My take on this 😍 😩
@@carlmorgan8452 this guy played hoi4 once and he thinks himself as a military genius
@@admiralcraddock464 The reality is that we knew a long time before and intentionally made them stronger in everyone's heads to accomplish our political goals and make more money from defense spending
@@carlmorgan8452 Between Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, Russia's spread itself WAY too thin. Even America has never been in more than two zones at a time. Russia's trying two AND an invasion? With an economy that's lower than the state of Texas? That's a "bruh" move.
As a weekly committed viewer of your channel I thought to have a look at you first 2 videos... amazing what you put up back then already. 👍
55 days now Russia is still waiting to send their best.
They will send them. Just wait. Currently, the best are preparing for the parades at 9th May... but after that... you will see...
Once again you have provided content that is well argued without assuming a point based on opinion and forecast. Thank you for the clarity and lesson in not assuming too much but rather in using your eyes and brain.
th-cam.com/video/OSkpIq3T-Zc/w-d-xo.html
You might want to watch the video by "The Cheiftain", who is a serving US Army armor officer and well read military history researcher, who said we should be wary of drawing conclusions from so called "evidence" on the internet.
@@AliBaba-vw7mo shut up
The biggest question that I have after this analysis is whether Russia's military is underperforming or if Russia's military was never up to the challenge as is.
I think tanks and armoured vehicles the Russians are using were designed for a very different kind of war. Then again I don't trust any side right now.
The Russians haven't been a legitimate military power since WW2 and even then they were largely propped up by American supply. The only reason anyone even takes them seriously is their nuclear arsenal
Russia’s military is performing about how you would expect when it’s sent on an offensive campaign while outnumbered 2:1 (later 3:1) in the AO.
If anything failed, it’s the Russian leadership, which had a very high risk plan that relied on Ukraine basically surrendering a few days in. That plan did not pan out due to unexpected levels of resistance and mass mobilization in Ukraine, and the Russian leadership had no plan B.
If Russia wanted to mount a proper all-out invasion, it should have prepared an army at least 800,000 strong, not 200,000.
Honestly, I'd say the Russian army is underperfoming horrendously due to leadership being as competent as a gibbon. Their equipment might be trash, but Ukraine's is about on the same level. With logistics worse than late operation Barbarossa and leadership that can't do anything more than bomb civilians...it's quite clear why Russia is struggling.
you should watch his first video of the conflict "all bling no basics" covers exactly that question and just as engaging. tldw: they've spent vast sums on equipment like nuclear wepaons and a navy which are of no use in a land war in ukraine, they've paid for an army that's not designed for the mission they want to achieve, therefore their effective fighting capability is much smaller than it appears, whilst ukraine has spent it's much smaller budget on exactly what it needs, on its primary goal to resist an invasion by russia. corruption probably did the rest.
A year later... yes. They were sending their best. And it was in fact the best they'd ever send, as it was only downhill from there. Though ahhhhhhhhhh, that cope cage nostalgia starting at around 5:30
We are starting to see on social media some Russian artillery with burst barrels due to a lack of maintenance allowing the barrel to exceed the barrel's projected shell life.
This isn't a meme, this is russian propaganda spread by bots and tankies, I expect their narrative to change soon tho
The new narrative is that Putin never even wanted to take Kyiv. It was just a distraction to secure a land bridge to crimea which was his actual goal 🙄
@@fosterslover ye saw that, pretty pathetic, but then again, when were bots and tankies not pathetic?
@@fosterslover Putin wanted take kiyv in few days. Thats confirmed fact
Weird to see people talking about tankies outside leftist circles...
Russia Today: The collective west has colluded with Azov to activate the forbidden sorcery that sent our general staff into mist.
Ah yes, the old 4D chess argument. “You just don’t understand the complexities of Russian military planning!”
You know what? I kinda miss old mic perun. The crunch just adds a little pizzazz
Back before the invasion happened, when lots of folks thought Putin was going to invade and lots thought he was just Sabre rattling, I told folks that I did not think Putin was so monumentally stupid as to invade and thereby reveal to the world just how empty a suit his army actually was. I pointed out his country has the GDP of Italy, and Italy could not successfully invade so much as Austria on a bet, much less a nation the size of Ukraine. I pointed pointed out that at no time since WWII has the Russian or soviet army been anything like a competent force. Beset by bad command structure, nearly nonexistent training, poor maintenance, and the every present pressure to LOOK scary rather than BE effective. Even back in the days of the czar, you only have to look at the sojourn of the Russian fleet sent to deal with the Japanese to get an inkling of just how bad Russian military effectiveness has always been. During WWII- after having their asses handed to them by FINLAND- Stalin managed to pull their army together, but then folks keep neglecting to consider the fact that T-34’s were made of US steel, carrying shells full of US gunpowder and explosives, driven by men wearing US supplied boots and fed with US wheat and spam, and with their support columns and artillery pulled by the quarter million US made deuce and a half’s, fueled with either the 2 million tons of fuel oil the US sent them, or with the fuel provided by the 4 entire refineries the US shipped and built for them. And with help from the 18,000 aircraft, and 6000 tanks and tank destroyers the US provided. It has been no surprise to me that Putin’s army has not been able to perform. They are fine for oppressing the restive population of a pretty much unarmed region of the former USSR. But for an actual invasion against a sovereign nation with its own, independent and largely westernized military? Now the world knows for certain. Russia is once again bankrupting itself trying to LOOK like something is simply isn’t. Its NOT a superpower. Its a mafia racket.
Excellent commentary!!!! Spot on!
Yes a mafia racket with a huge nuclear arsenal. That's still a game changer.
I said that to but my argument was the following, I knew Ukraine wasnt weak, they may be poor on paper economy wise, but GDP figures are misleading, Ukraine has in simple terms one of the strongest armies in Europe, give them advanced weapons and they will win. Also their generals have US training and Nato training, this matters the Portuguese army was a dud, but after the foundation of Nato their officers got US training and these would sustain in a very effective and intelegent way a 13 year war, that from their academic work at the time US tactics were highly influential in their tactics, for example hearts and minds startegy was utilised. Unlike other armies US has helped in the past the Ukrainians have very high levels of educations they can quickly incorporate advanced western equipment. The Simple truth was I believed the Russians could take the Donbass, but to take everything, I dont say it is impossible, but the cost would be imense and clearly not a 2 day march.
Good analysis.
@@comicbookninja5268 If their army is this trash imagine how bad their nuclear capacity is as well. Food for thought. All those nukes require maintenance and that costs an absolute fortune, you sure they're all still active? Sure I grant you they only need 10% of what they claim to have to wipe most of us out but again... nukes are a deterrent not a weapon.
“An army’s effectiveness depends on its size, training, experience, and morale, and morale is worth more than any of the other factors combined.” . . . Napoleon
How many bombers did Napoleon have? For the time he was right. While important morale isn't exactly the biggest factor anymore.
100%! And morale is an advantage of ukrainian army. They are defending their own land, the whole world supports them
@@glostyle Morale is still the biggest factor. Battles in the Israeli wars and in Iraq prove this. Numbers of aircraft mean little if the pilots don't have the morale to press their attacks.
"God is on the side with the most artillery.'
-Napoleon
@@glostyle Bombing people, short of literally killing them all, actually tends to BOOST their resolve to fight back.
I really do love calm, dispassionate, fact-based analysis, the terror of trolls everywhere.
Well done. Liked and Subscribed. 👍
#StandWithUkraine
🇺🇦 🇬🇧
You can tell which videos are closest to hitting the mark, as the Putinbots flock there in swarms.
I am here because my dad, who went to West Point, recommended this channel because of all the questions I was asking him.
I subbed!
Before the invasion I suppose it was just hard to believe that Russia couldn't roll up to Kyiv in a matter of days with minimal losses. To the untrained civilian like myself the pre-war stats suggested a quick Ukraine defeat of the gov and regular armed forces followed by years of insurgency type resistance.
You think you are analysing the conflict but it hasn't even started we have 100k US troops in Europe on high alert 3.5million NATO troops on stand by three aircraft carries in the mediterranian, patriot missiles in Slovakia and Slovakian preparing to send Ukraine Migs and S300 missiles to Ukraine. Europe is ready to go to war what's happening in east Ukraine is a tiff. Putin does not want to be hanged as a war criminal. He has medium range nuclear weapons designed for this situation. He is not an idiot. he knows he can not compete with NATO . Indians top general (hr has been involved in war games with Russia) said that he know Russia's FIRST RESPONSE is medium range nuclear weapons. Not Putins defence, Russian military strategy. The Russian military's entire strategy is based on short and medium range nuclear missiles as a defence from a NATO ground invasion. The master mind behind russias defense is General Gerasimov. Said to be a modern day Napolean. I am convinced he know more about warfare in eastern Europe than some guy from australia. No disrespect.
Not really, honestly - Ukraine has 200.000 career soldiers, large special forces capabilities that have been trained and equipped by NATO. They are operating a very modern, capable army.
@@DerDudelino Numbers doesn't matter when compared to the glorius ultra-tech of the Russian superpower. It was fair to believe that narrative back in the day, if you take all the Russian hype build up seriously. But at the end it was just hype, nothing more.
Russia does really have just the GDP of Mexico.
@@asasas9146 russias powerfull army is Just propaganda that even Putin believed
hoorah
Hey Perun. I know you love making video game videos, but tbh THESE videos are where you really shine. The long form military deep dive essay, hands down, you’re brilliant at it.
Really hope you continue making them even after the Ukrainian war ends
*This is pro-Ukraine propaganda, manipulations, misinformation and lies.* He started the analysis even from false assumption that Russia has any intention to capture any territory (except maybe little in South like Kherson), then build everything else from that false assumption. What people talk about when they speak about newer Russian stuff they mean stuff T90M and T14, not T72B3 or any T80 (of which T80 is but a hindrance to the Russians). Even these "killed generals" is as real as the Snake Island and Ghost of Kiev (except that one navy Captain)! *He is peddling pure fakes and Ukrainain disinformation here!* The Russians just today reported their casualty numbers and its 1350 dead and 3580 wounded.
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w Prove that your "newer stuff" even runs. The fact is corruption and a "leader" who surrounds himself with yes-men led you to this embarrassment in Ukraine. Only you trust the official numbers and the stories you're told, so you can feel good about murdering civilians. You're as easy to read as Putin.
@@user-dp4ok9ox5w bot or real person?
@@forrestgreene1139 Prove? Wtf? Are you like 12 years old or do you just have very low IQ? The official numbers come from Russian MoD, not Putin. The Russian officers and MoD stakes its reputation on that information and not only for their citizens, but also their own damn military. You people are such bigots and Russophobes that your loyalty to the Ukrainian neo-Nazis is sickening. Maybe your favorite buddies in Azov battalion should have allowed the civilians to flee Mariupol (or not fight in a city in the first place) if you wanted to avoid casualties, since now the civilians are telling the truth of who actually killed them and did not allow them to flee, meanwhile the Russians are have not even used their strategic bombers in the whole war! US killed 8000 civilians in Iraq during the first two months of bombings alone!
@@samanthahydeker7914 It's a Russian troll.
They save the best for military parade.
It’s also suffering from diaspora brain drain. The free thinking smart folk are holding up in Georgia etc.
A couple of my Russian friends went to Kazakhstan
I did the same with the tanks had largely similar results, but some notes:
1. T-80 and T-90 are not principally more modern than T-72. The oldest widely used variants are pretty much on par. T-72U and T-80U are for example both on pretty comparable 1985 standards. The T-90A are somewhat more modern (2005) but in return we are missing completely on T-90M (2018).
2. I would roughly classify the tanks by T-72B3 and B3M (aka B3 obr. 2016), T-80BVM and T-90M as the modern generation, followed by T-72B3 and T-90A. Beyond that is entering "ancient junk" territory.
3. Going by the IISS figures that wikipedia loses, the loss rate relative to the TOTAL active inventory are currently:
Overall:
-T-72 all variants: 143/2000 = 7.2%
-T-80 all variants: 73/450 = 16.2%
-T-90 all variants: 16/370 = 4.3%\
-Total: 232/2820 = 8.2%
(note: this excludes 21 unidentified tanks - the total with unidentified is 253 or 9.0%)
Modern:
-T-72B3M: 62/~600 = ~10%
-T-80BVM: 16/140 = ~11.4%
-T90M: 0/85 (none were seen in Ukraine, neither lost nor active - they only have a little above 2 rgts worth anyway, so no surprise here).
Total: 88/825 = 10.7%
This matches your assessment that the losses are "top heavy".
4. Also interesting: As Russia sent slightly over half their ground forces to Ukraine. Russian tank forces seem to be approximately proportionate, so it's reasonable to assume that they lost about 15-20% of their invading tank force minimum.
5. Small caveat: Oryx' list also has some mechanisms for over-counting. Avoiding double counts can sometimes be impossible as tanks are being moved. It is not a perfect representation of Russian tanks since it also includes some captured Ukrainian ones (currently counts 7 T-64, which I excluded). And some of the abandoned tanks may have been recovered. Nonetheless I of course agree that there must be some undercounting because no identifiable footage exists or Oryx haven't reviewed it yet, and this is likely a more significant factor.
6. We can also tell from the units that they're sending. The 4th Guards Tank Division for example has been heavily involved (and bloodied) and is one of their best. There are some from the Eastern Military District, which is traditionally poorly equipped, but most divisions in threatre are well equipped ones from the western and northern districts. Not to mention the VVS that has allegedly lost entire regiments (and at least one of those seems to be confirmed by Russian media).
Two additions. Many of the old tanks were not actually lost in battle, but simply broke down and were abandoned during the forced march.
Those tanks that the Ukrainians managed to capture will very likely be returned. In fact, the Ukrainian army is running out of fuel and ammunition, in such a situation they will not be able to do anything with the captured tanks, and moreover, they will abandon their own.
@@sergeypanferov9758 A mobility kill is still a kill.
Is there an agreement to return them?
@@sergeypanferov9758 Cope
The T-90M is the only modern tank Russia has (and they have a small number of them), the T-72B3, T-72B3M, T-80BVM and T-90A (which together make up the bulk of Russia's tank force) are all pretty crappy (with the T-90A being even worse than the other three).
I believe the Donbass separatiss were using T-64s?
Didn't try to ID it myself, but there was a video in Mariupol showing a tank that was claimed to be an ukrainian T-64, but with a big Z on the front upper glacis.
My favorite Stat from this war is Ukraine has more tanks than they started the war with.
The BBC recently confirmed losses from the elite 331st group that was pulled off the front line.
The farmers of Ukraine became an elite brigade ... taking tanks from the enemy and increasing the number of tanks for Ukraine , they must receive medals for bravery at the end of the war
I love this video. I have been fighting this crap idea about Russia not sending their best since the start. Like " oh yeah its part of the master plan to destroy billions of dollars of equipment and human life and money invested in training because... well basically we want to get rid of it!" That makes no sense. Someone literally tried to tell me Russia was just trying to get rid of their old weapons and tanks and APCs and to soften up the Ukrainians... like how stupid can you be. No country would intentionally lose all those weapons systems that could be re purposed, upgraded, or resold or even scrapped. Like wtf... I was also arguing with people saying they sent in old tanks... I was like wtf are you talking about? The T72 is used everywhere still.. people were citing how old the design was so I cited that the basis for the M1A2 Abrams was designed in 1973-1975 yet we still use it. But nope I guess that isn't a legit comparison.....
"Haven't seen any strategic bombers lost"... Laughs in 2023
I feel really well educated on the statistics of Russian equipment losses. My biggest question regarding all of it however is this:
"What is the quality of training that Russian militants receive?"
Are they well trained to operate their equipment?
As far as we know, troops like the VDV are pretty well trained. But good training isn't everything. You send a bunch of very well trained men in a poorly planned operation with no support, the outcome is obvious. It's what happened in Hostomel
I have to admit, during the first week I thought for sure that Russia was waiting to send in their pipehitters. I'm an infantry veteran, and watching the videos of Russian forces work gave me anxiety. No command and control, no violence of action, no tactical posture, and frankly I feel kinda bad for the average Russian soldier.
I wasn't infantry, but even us pogs have a better idea of what a tactical formation should look like. In the videos I've seen as soon as they take fire they have no coordination or plan, it just looks sloppy. The individual soldiers aren't at fault, just cogs in the Russian regime
That's what I say when I note that today's border isn't "under the reliable lock". And that's without "bloody Rick.Tator Stalin which «killed every talented officer in 1937»"
I respect your life experience but your comment sounds pretty bad. I understand that some of russian soldiers just doing what they were told, but most of them came to Ukraine to kill, seal, rape and destroy. Don't you try to rationalize it or call liberation. Russian soldiers are war criminal and and nothing in the world should let you feel sympathy to them. Instead just notice how Ukrainian soldiers or just ordinary men with guns fighting organized and overwhelmingly bigger army of real nazis in 2022 in the Europe
Weakening the enemy's strength by overwhelming them with waves of cannon fodder-type of soldiers is a chinese playbook tactic, not a russian one ;)
@@someoneyouknow9447 that's very kind from you to forget all the reports for the last 7 years about unsuppressed neonazi groups in Ukraine. Which are the authors of numerous crimes against civilians during their terror campaign. Why won't you remember the free journalist who died for his position? Oh, right, he was a soobhooman. Soobhoomans-ruso. Pavjel Sherjemjet.
I've been waiting for someone professional to do this analysis. Putin has claimed their armed forces to be second to none. Exceptional presentation. I am definitely subscribing.
Man, I love how thorough and level-headed your presentations are.
Much better than most of the slickly produced videos on the topic.
Just to add in a new comment: A stark and clear-eyed analysis such as this would lead me to think that one casualty in all of this should be China’s overconfidence in its own untested forces who’s capability relies just as heavily on the same Soviet and post-Soviet platforms, minus a few indigenous designs. Russia has also had years in Syria to cut its teeth and to develop expertise in the application of military force, while China has had nothing of the sort barring beating-up its own citizens for the sin of not being Han Chinese. Were I in the CCP, I’d be seriously reassessing the belief that Chinese forces are a match to the US and quickly shelving those designs on Taiwan.
Part of the last video was pointing out that Russia's main problem (overall) was that it was severely hollowed out. That it was spending way too much on prestige units and systems. And losing much more to cost- and corner-cutting (and corruption). Whereas China, with a larger military budget than Russia, is much less extravagant and perhaps is spending much more on logistics and is not as hollowed out and is paying more attention to the basics. (Still pretty corrupt, though.) But that's a different spending analysis. However, they still have very little combat experience and this is still useful.
@@helbent4 China has the same if not even worse problems with corruption. It is a way of living in china, combine that with military leadership bieng staffed with political appointments. And the logistical nightmare a naval invasion would be i don't think china will try invading Taiwan anytime soon.
Look NO further than China's "5 Week War" with little Vietnam, during those 5 weeks the PLA lost over 45,000 troops before they RAN back to China, leaving their artillery, their tanks, their trucks and 45,000 rotting PLA bodies in the RED mud of Vietnam! In 72 years, China has LOST in Korea, LOST in Vietnam, and LOST in their Border War with India, they ONLY WIN when their enemy has NO GUNS, like when they murdered over 45,000,000 Chinese whose only CRIME was that they didn't want to live under Communism! Taiwan has an ARMED Forces of over 2,000,000 men and women, like I said, they are ARMED, a force that the PLA doesn't like to fight against!
Just a bunch of Trope which you are brainwashed by western mainstream media propaganda. The US underestimated the Chinese forces in Vietnam. Then underestimated in the Korean war. I would bet my boots, China will defend Taiwan successfully from the marauding crusaders.
@@thetreekeeper143 What? Your comment absolutely doesnt make sense.
The myths about Russian human wave tactics still won't die, it seems. That wouldn't be so bad if it weren't genuinely distorting people's ways of thinking about war. It would be a damn shame if some stupid meme caused unnecessary deaths due to ill-preparedness.
Some amount of the myth is rooted in historical reality. Eastern Bloc countries generally taught much more aggressive light infantry tactics, emphasizing small arms fire superiority, tactical mobility, and infiltration and surprise, leading to dedicated submachine gun units, codified tank desant doctrine, and massed charges. There's some merit to this style of fighting as well, the Japanese Army considered the best infantry in the world to be Chinese in World War II. However, when properly defended against or improperly executed, these attacks do in fact look like suicidal charges against a superior position. Western participants in those battles didn't see or care much about how their adversaries tried to use terrain, weather and darkness to approach them, nor could really conceive about how meticulous the timing of those massed attacks were to achieve maximum shock.
@@artemisfowl52 They really aren't rooted in reality. In WW2 the soviets were outnumbered by the axis in 1941 around 2:1, (at stalingrad the russians were outnumbered), later in the war they outnumbered the axis/germans around 2:1 (it inverted), while the allies (USA and britaiN) on the western front outnumbered the germans by 4.5:1 and basically won through having higher numbers, the germans used better tactics and had better tanks, the allies just won on the western front because the germans were outnumbered. In actual reality the allies outnumbered the germans on the western front far more than the soviets ever did on the eastern front.
Your use of open source information and networks is very cool. I was already aware of open source video analysis communities, but didn't know about those monitoring military situations.
Seeing t62s on battlefield 11 months later, this did aged well ;)
Seriously impressed with the analysis, to the point that this is the first time I have commented on any video - and I've been around for long enough to have very grey hair. Very balanced, thoughtful and obviously drawing on your professional background. Subscribed.
He didn’t address his Ukrainian defense at all. It was all straw manning and one sided
In boxing and in MMA they spend the first few rounds studying eachother.
I know war isn't a combat sport but some people said Russia sent in conscripts first to test Ukrainian resistance
This guy said that doesn't make sense but doesn't really go into why other than it's his opinion.
It makes sense to me the way other people have explained it.
@@Bee-tj8gc Becuase large losses would allow ukraine more time to muster it's forces, and potentially lead to a morale blow early against the russians.
Also VDV aren't conscripts they're paratroopers.
@@georgethompson1460 Where is Ukraine going to muster it’s forces from? How are they going to link up with existing forces?
@@jimohara The quality of Ukrainian defenders wasn't in the scope of the video.
Russian Space Marines (Ineptus Astartsky) expected to reinforce any day now.
Just wait until the Supreme Patriarchs start using Vorpka on the frontlines...
lmao stealing that
Your knowledge, analysis and interpretation of what is happening in Ukraine is exactly what I’ve been looking for, too much poor information about these day, thank you for all your hard work!
I know right? There are so many garbage video like the ones by inforgraphics that basically just comapre numbers with no talk of effectiveness, training, deployment, doctrine, envionment or any other variable. It is infuriating people take channels like that seriously.
''Russia's best'' is everyone else's ''Meh''...js
One indication that Russia sent its best airborne units is the casualty numbers. Very few surrendered, a few were captured wounded but most fought to the death when beaten in counterattack. If they were taken alive in numbers the Ukrainians would have bragged about that. In other cases they do. With the airborne and the Naval forces near Mariupol they don't have POW's to parade as much.
In a guerrilla style conflict prisoners are a hindrance. All enemies who do not run very fast indeed are killed. It would be better to just wound (as in cripple) them as casualties are a long term cost to the army and their families back home. Troops missing limbs has a bigger impact in Russia than just coffins. They have to be looked after for 6 decades.
could also be conscripts are just MUCH easier to persuade to give statements
@@mbak7801 Absolutely no one is thinking about what happens 6 decades from now in a battle. What on earth are you talking about.
Coincidentally the naval forces and vdv have appeared to have preformed the best out of all the infantry deployed. Besides the fiasco at the airport. Which wasn’t the vdvs fault, they were dropped in with zero follow up support.
No they were unable to handle the thousands of Ukrainian horde counterattacks, the Russians were outnumbered 10:1 in their paradrops. Yet they held their ground and waited for the army to come help them.
"You don't fight a war with the army you wish you had, you fight with the army you do have."
And how do you fight an econo-war? With the Dollar General, of course!
4:52 "how cynical"?
Wagner PMC: "Yes?"
This has been a fascinating series of videos. Thank you.
Clearly they represent more than a few hours of production. You obviously have a lot of experience analyzing this sort of thing.
I see no obvious reason why you should not monetize your videos. There is so much crap that IS monetized; paying you a few bucks for a lifetime of knowledge seems more than fair. If you don't need the money then send it to Ukraine. But you're getting a ton of NEW traffic here; don't waste it.