Tesla 4680 from Texas for Cybertruck - what Does it Mean?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 พ.ค. 2024
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This video is meant for entertainment purposes, not Tesla stock investment advice.
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I was confident the 4680 news would bring you back - great to see you again! ❤❤❤❤❤
Welcome back Lee!
Glad to have you back - you were missed! ❤
Glad to have you back TE. I think your return will be perfect timing as earnings are next week and in them we may FINALLY also have the official announcement of the Cyber Truck (not during the earnings call ) but around that time. As this crazy year begins to wind down, what would be better (and more joyful) than the news of this long awaited vehicle will be on our roads (before Christmas and bad weather) to merrily go to relatives homes on road trips for the holidays. Add in some FSD (non Beta?) and that would be the cherry on top.
The battery production was predicted by Jordon of The Limiting Factor prior to the announcement of the latest battery milestone according to his calculations and estimates of their run rate. He hit it on the nose so it is possible that it is a real ramp and we might see further improvement as the other lines are now going to have a benchmark that works that will add to their numbers increasing for Q1 of 2024. The Lithium Refinery is also looking like it will be ready to start producing around that time as well.
In the meanwhile the UAW is helping to further give Legacy Auto a handicap by taking them out by their knees. The longer this goes on the more they will be reporting losses for Q4 and into Q1 which is a traditionally weak quarter for the industry. I see much bigger losses for them but potential upside and better numbers for Tesla especially with the Model 3+ sales in Europe. That model is eagerly awaited here!!
It's never a dull time in the Teslaverse. Let's enjoy the ride.
Always appreciate your analyses!
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Best guess: Israel invades Gaza over the weekend, leading to a big sell off on Monday. What do you think ?
Welcome back, Lee. I hope you’ll revert to use of your teleprompter. It was more natural to have your eyes stay on us than to be so evidently reading the script.
Yea, had some issues with my stand today, got a new one though, hopefully ok next time
The battery subsidies are going to make 4680's very important.
It means another daily headline that keeps the fan base intact for yet another week or so.
Ye of little faith
@@monkeysezbegood years of ownership and observation. The lands beyond exist.
Its good to take BREAKS, as you want this to stay fun ❗💪❤
Awesome to have you back!! But where is the eye contact?
Nobody can predict anything about Tesla and that’s reflected in the share price volatility. Perhaps when Tesla starts hitting one home run, there will be many more. I’m content to hold on to my shares and buy incrementally whenever I see a drop. Leaps and Options are for those that have a very high risk appetite. I was hopeful for 4680’s to make it mainstream and change Tesla’s fortunes and add to its cost advantage, but scaling a new technology isn’t easy and Tesla has most groundbreaking tech than any company. Anyways, wishing you the best Lee 👍
So, Lithium plant will produce Lithium Hydroxide powder, Cathode plant will produce cathode powder with binders and and conducting material. The 4680 plant in the main texas building produces mother rolls of cathode and anode using the dry process, then makes cells, before passing cells to battery pack making area.
Giga Austin battery area has had many months of excavation and steel and concrete work - not finished. It appears the dry electrode process needs far heavier machines in heavy foundations. Given that Kato Rd has shut down for upgrade, it appears the upgraded process at Austin is successful, and ongoing works are installing more lines. New foundations at Kato Rd would tell us similar upgrades to Austin were taking place. Hard to say if second 10 million cells is all old process, or new process too.
New foundations could be for cell first charge - cell activation. Perhaps the heavier foundations are for the cell formation racks. Hope someone asks on earnings call adout 4680 processes upgraded this year.
Thanks ET for your perspective. I like that you are a measured, realistic Tesla bull. Jeannine
Good reality check and reminders as per usual.
6:19 there will most likely be a stock price upgrade(s) by analyist(s) after the cybertruck delivery announcement. Saying how it will help finally diversify their product mix. Which is true. So i could see the stock jumping up past $300 within a short period of time. They will most likely not like specs or maybe the price and use that as an excuse to take profits after a huge run. Stock usually gets support after a selloff so it wont go back down to the start of the run. Old resistance becomes new support. I can see $300 being that new support
Eye contact is important
November 22nd is the day before Thanksgiving in the US, I highly doubt they'd schedule it then.
Welcome back Mate, I've missed you.
* Maybe move your autocue up to camera level, like before. That delivery looked much better.
A Down Under subscriber.
Can’t wait for the M3 Highland US announcement as well.
Right now for Tesla stock is more important that the US 10 year bond stays below 5% and Oil below 100 USD a barrel, than what ever Tesla do or not do.
Do we know what batteries the updated model 3 will use, and will they be chargeable to 100%?
As a Tesla economist can you do some modeling for us- after you know the battery price? Is there a way to get more information?
Surely once they have a line 10gwh+, it should be easy to copy and paste maybe 3 or 4 new lines and ramp quickly.
Is the Kato Road line being moved to Texas?
Then Kato works on next gen 4680?
If the concern is quantity, why not just take the current process and copy it 20 or 30 times?
I hope the first delivery includes lots of vapour to emphasize its status as "vapourware".
You’re just an airhead if you can’t figure out that it is not vaporware.
I think Tesla should price the Cybertruck based on supply & demand. If they already have about 2 million reservations for it, why not jack the price up at first and let the market decide, etc. If they produce 100,000 Cybertrucks, then each $10,000 increase translates to ONE BILLION DOLLARS in profit! Eventually, they will ramp up production to 1/2 million Cybers a year, and can lower prices to meet demand.
IRA annual subsidies would give Tesla $450m for every 10gwh of cell production.
40gwh annual production would likey pay for the Texas battery factory with 1 year of production.
Could make the most expensive BEV item (battery pack), close to ZERO cost to Tesla, let that sink in 😊
Tesla is having a little trouble with the front end crash testing. There are only rear end castings stockpiled. They need to work on the front casting molds. So they built their own crash test facility. And the initial crash test was the front. In designing the CT they shrunk the front; Now it has a crumple zone problem.
How do you know this?
@@royphillips7644 I know!
Ahhh, that makes sense. I hope they solve it ASAP!
I doubt 4680 will ramp much untill the design is 100% locked in. This will not happen untill the dry battery electrode process for both cathode and anode is perfected. Then and only then will they begin adding new production lines and copy and paste to Berlin and other sites. Could be months or years its an unknown unknown 🤔
That could be happening already. It’s just no way to know . Wait for the Q3 call
Nothing... It means nothing
Then, why comment?
well you are way too pessimistic for me . By the way the increase in production is 2x since the 10 million announcement .