EASIEST ICT Silver Bullet Strategy | No Daily Bias 77% WIN RATE (PASS PROP FIRMS WITH THIS)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ส.ค. 2023
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Literally super Literally super super Literally super Literally!
@@biggalaxy9102 🔥
Dude lost account today 😂
@@a.carnevale4910 Its so stupid call that Silver bullet, its like a scam : People lets found any FVG 5min tf, and place order long or short, without bias, without targets on liquidity. Thats not work like that/ Clown
Don't get it. 1) Market open 9:30 not 10 and 2) why 5Min TF? 3) Direction not Clear. I'll check on the Chart and see.. Cause Other guy trading Diff times and Diff TF and calling this same "Silver Bullet".. :)
guys 6 months, 121 trades, I backtested this and 44.2R+ return after 6 months risking 1%, 10 back to back winning streak, 5 back to back lossing streak, 1 lossing month, 5 winning month, best month: 22R+, worst month: -1.5R. 50 lossing trade total and 60 winning trades so you could say 60% winrate gonna keep on testing ya'll this shit works.
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What is your time zone?
@@francescogatta5047 10-11AM +5 NY killzone
Brilliant data. Thank you so much.
@@magethemaskedgamer4510 no p
Today I come to this video to thank you Casper, I have improved my trading and this video just helped me to fund me. We can always adapt this strategy with other confluences for more efficiency, but simply what you explain in your video is necessary. It takes a lot of patience and an iron mentality to stick to the plan, if we do this we will achieve great things. A hug, I want you all to know that it is possible. Discipline and patience.
Glad to hear that! Thank you! 🙏
Funded! most simplified breakdown of the silver bullet I've sen so far. Short and sweet. Love it! Thanks Casper
Thank you! 🙏❤️
How has it been? Did you change your strat or has this been profitable?
Hey Casper! I’ve honestly gone through 10s of videos explaining this silver bullet and I’ve been losing was about to give up on it until I tried it out the way you have explained it and it worked well! Thank u
That's fantastic to hear! 🔥
Bless you Jesse. Thank you for being able to break down this concepts in an easy to understand way for the newer traders and for always being transparent with your examples. As someone you learns best visually, it’s always refreshing watching you explain a concept and then explain it again with a live example. Thankful and grateful for your content always.
Thanks man. That means a lot 🙏
I’m so glad you dropped this video. For anybody new to ITC please watch this video. This is a beginner level strategy and I highly recommend it. This helped me a lot!
Glad it helped! 🙏
Have been a trader trading for one solid year as of December 1st. I have had trouble finding consistency until I found this video and wanted to say thank you. It is working like a charm.
Thank you! 🙏🤝
Have you still been consistent with using this strategy?
Are you profitable bro with this strategy?
I've watched about 20 different videos, including that of ICT, focusing on the Silver Bullet strategy. I want to let you know that you're really good at explaining it! You get right to the main points and use simple methods. I like that you show the Tradingview chart instead of just drawings - it's much clearer that way. Thank you a lot for this. Now I'm excited to try out the strategy, and I'm definitely going to check out your other videos too. I also Liked and Subscribed. Take care!
Thank you so much! Take care brother 🤝
How did it play out?
Sorry, can I ask you if you know what time the time spoken of in the video corresponds to (10am) in Italy? I'm trying to replicate it but I'm not very profitable
16-17 in italy @@giuliobraccini1008
bro how it is
You're brilliant I've watched about 6 videos of people saying 'the last video you will need' when in reality this is the last video I will need.
FUNDED! Thank you Casper 💪🏽 great strategy, will Backtest it with FX replay as well
🙏
Would love more similar strategies for gold ect. These are becoming a game changer for me. Love mechanical easy to spot set ups.
I’m so happy that the algorithms passed your video my way. I really appreciate you sharing this and like some others in the comments mentioned, you are very good at explaining this and I’m definitely watching some of your other videos ! ;) Thank you brother
Casper. This was indeed my ah ha moment. I backrests the NQ 180 days using both 10am and 2pm times. 123 wins and 31 losses. Approx 75% . ES 70 % . You are undoubtedly one of the best follows on TH-cam. Thanks for all you do. I have signed up for my first evaluation w apex. Starting next week with this strat. I'll lyk!!!!😊
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Last 6 months.
@@curiouskittycat5977 yes
So do you take 2 trades a day since you will be using the pm session silver bullet as well? or do you apply both?
@denisheohector7412 I tested each pair NQ ES for past 180 days using the SB at 10 and 2. So yes 2 trades per day. I also found that if the FVG failed I could use it as an inversion gap to trade in the other direction.
100 trades ,exact rules ,starting balance $300,000 , Jan 11-Jun 17 2022 42% win rate ending balance 337,171,67 Im going to test a couple variations. Keep you posted . Thank you Casper 👍
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WHICH IS THE MOST WINNING AND LOOSING DAY OF THE WEEK????
Hello bro how could you backtest that much do you have any option to backtest for Last 2 years chart data in Nasdaq 100 if you have please suggest me
The ICT study by CasperSMC is really really Important to understand psychology of Real ICT......I really following you since 2022 and have seen very good changes in my lewrning also....love u bro❤️ thank u 💯
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I will definitely try this out,thank you for going so much in depth and still keeping it simple,great video and a great lad,Thank you so much for what you’ve done for the community Casper✊🏻❤️
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Did you try it out??
Sorry, can I ask you if you know what time the time spoken of in the video corresponds to (10am) in Italy? I'm trying to replicate it but I'm not very profitable
You can change the time at the bottom right of Tradingview. Just set your time to New York time😁 I live in Germany, it should be 16-17 in italy@giuliobraccini1008
@@giuliobraccini1008 If you use Tradingview I suppose that the chart will show what time. So the time in Italy may be different from the time on Tradingview but it should be 10-11am on tradingview time ig.
It is amazing how you take complex strategies and you simplify them for the traders. Thank you for all you do for the community. # Funded
Thank you! 🤍🙏
I want to take the time to show gratitude and appreciation. You are making a difference in the trading industry. So thank you, for everything. God bless you.
I appreciate that! 🙏🤝
v watched many silver bullet videos ever since he introduced the concept but boy ohh boy ,,this was the best so far,ITS SO MECHANICAL AND STRAIGHT TOTHE T' IN AND OUT ''am trading LONDON WINDOW''' wish me luck,,,BLESS UP✊ CASPER
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Have you found equal success during the London session?
@@sharronharris7985 Time 3am
Thank you for uploading Casper.... You are really giving a lot to the community
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Jesse, this just got me funded. Thank you, you gave me the confidence to build discipline and consistency in trading. On difficult days I watched this video again and again and it reassured me and motivated me to stick to the rules and it paid off. I appreciate you 🎉
🤍
hey what pair are u trading? because i am trading nas100 and last month and this month its been horrible
@filipeantunes5967 I've only been trading NAS100, and yes, it's been really challenging. The market has mostly been consolidating, so I wait for days where there's good movement in the market and then I wait for the daily high / low to be taken or look for the judas swing between 9:30 and 10:00. I will then follow the plan as stipulated in this video. But some days there's good movement before 10:00, and as soon as the hour hits, the market starts to consolidate again. If there's no opportunity before 10:30, I don't trade for the day. Good luck!
@@filipeantunes5967It's been great. You're obviously not following the rules.
His Silver Bullet version is based on luck. You can't trade just based of a FVG. @@filipeantunes5967
One of the most clear trader mentor on the web, thanks bro to go always to the sauce!
🙏🙏🙏
Due to this video now i understand original Silverbullet with finding next most likelly draw on liquidity and narrative. Added to my intraday trading after 2022 model....Casper big respect+++ to You.
Thanks for this exposé Casper!
I’ve tried the trading the am SB but fell off after some losers on m1.
Guess I didn’t have the guts to be mechanical with it.
But, I especially like the fact that you based this backtest off of m5 TF which gives me time to enter my trades as against the m1 TF.
I’m gonna forward test this on EU this month and see how it goes.
Appreciate it!
how s the backtesting
@@davidvinatoru8562F
how is it
you are one of the few youtubers who really simplify it for everyone else, much love 🙏🏽
🙏❤
@@caspersmc please what time zone for the 10am
I've watched a few silver bullet videos.I definitely overthought everything, and gave up. But using the replay and watching it happen? It's now in my brain and I am going to back test it. Thank you
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Funded!
Will def need to back test this one. Nice and simple and takes the guess work out of it.
🙏
Hey Casper. Thanks and really appreciate your efforts. I would just like to add that. ICT introduced this concept 3 months ago. I've been trading this since then. Some things he specifically mentions, is a must in this model.
1. It's a 10pip/5handle strategy. 1R-1.5R(and ofcourse it could run more)
2. The entry must be in this 1 hr. Skip the setup if it doesn't.
3. It's a htf continuation setup.
This will improve the win rate a lot. I've been funded and profitable using silver bullet. Always Backtest first guys. Good luck 🙏
Hi bro, I have been trading silver bullet strategy as well but to no succes... Even tho I backtested it and got amazing results im still strugling to pass my challenge... got any tips or help ?
@@noemarcon4548 Bro if your backtesting results are good, the only problem I see, could be market conditions & risk management or human error(price analysis )
What video did he bring this out with?
@@WianFX just search for ICT Silver bullet. And watch the video from his channel
@@noemarcon4548sounds like it’s a mental barrier you have to overcome. You had success back testing it. The same confidence you had while back testing is the same confidence you need to have confidence during live trading
Hi Casper. Tested this strategy and I must say I'm very happy with the win rate. My backtesting gives my 5 losing trades in a row. Bought an account and straight of the bat I'm 4% down but I'm not even stressing because I know this strategy work and I've seen the 5 losing trades in a row. What I am most proud of is that I didn't break my rules to make up for the loses. If I lose this account I will still follow this because of my backtesting results. This is awesome bro. Thanks again
How long have you been trading this strategy? Im looking to use this strategy so I just want to hear from others who traded this...
Same bro
How did you do? Pass the funded?
Bless you Jesse, this setup is so easy to follow. Already backtested to another indicies and works like charm. Will test it live on today's market! Lessggoooo!
🙏
Hi, which indices did you test?
Did it work??
FUNDED!!
Ty for the content, I'm going all in on fvgs
Results:
June 2023 +10%
July 2023 +1%
August 2023 (currently) -3%
Win Rate = 40.48%
Max Drawdown = -8.00%
Backtested the last couple of months. As most mechanical strategies, performs well in it's ideal conditions, poor when not. Will definitely pass challenges, will also fail them.
Thanks for the content.
❤️
How many % did you risk per trade?
was about to say the same. most youtubers are completely overhyping these strats
Just back tested July ...holly!!!!!!!!😮Hactic
@@sihlepdlamini101 what are the results
Jesse, I believe you have a natural talent at breaking down complex ICT ideas into easy-to-understand mechanical systems. If I were to watch only 2 trading youtube channels, it would be yours for trading strategies, and Imperfect Trader's for psychology. Cheers!
Thank you! 🥂
@Trade_station1 If you can turn 1k to 10k with just a few trades, those signals should cost a ton of money. Otherwise why would you sell those when you, yourself could turn 1k to 10k in just a few trades, right? Then trade and make a lot of money, you don't need to sell anything.
Theres a comment like this for every guru channel😂
@@bronson1392 exactly. I'm yet to see somene who has written CODE to execute those trades. Then it would be really,really emotionless and imperative 😃
@@bronson1392 these guys are annoying as fuck. All they want is scam innocent people
Bro! Ive been working on this. That 3 candle FVG was my 'Ah ha" moment .Thank you!
Perfect! 🔥🫡
great video jesse. cant believe its just now im watching this. im used to watching your videos talking about using daily bias and this one you said no daily. im kinda scared to be honest but the video was great.
Glad you like them!
Made $5000 the last 2 days trading NQ following your teaching on FVG. It was indeed my aha moment in trading. Thank you so much.
Let’s go🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
This is My exact same setup, same time frame same rules, only that i trade it on EU and GU, and use it with the daily bias and it works well, thanks man i appreciate 👌🏾
Nice!
what has been your win rate?
Only been using for 2 weeks now havent backtested it
@@sarkhens3843how is it going?
God damn, I didn't expect it to be that simple, but it is definitely working! Pretty good video bruh!
Thank you for your kind words! 🙏
This is exactly how Ive been using it over the last few weeks. Its awesome! I trade NQ with it but im going to try ES and CL soon.
You can do it!
Have you tried / backtested CL yet?
Funded!
Great strategy and really well explained, good job Casper!
❤️🙏
I just tested this strategy on FX Replay and it got a 31% win rate with 14 consecutive losses and only 4 consecutive wins. -6% RoI after 45 trades. Posted images to back up my claims and they were deleted in less than 10 minutes.
@@caspersmc I've backtested it for hundreds of days and it works like a charm. Thank you again for sharing this strategy with us!
Thank you, this is awesome. I have tested Feb ‘23 to June ‘23 on GU using London session and NY session. I adjusted it a bit as per one of the comments here placing entry at 50% of FVG and TP 2.5%. So far a total of +45% profit. I still need to analize the data but so far it looks that 3% TP might to the job as well. I will share my results when ive tested 3 years of data. So far, this is great dude!
which timeframe did you do your test? thanks
@@daqfu271 5M
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Thank you!
@@Jeremy.Muller for those months you can actually ignore London session, as eventually you donate back what you have made. 2.7% TP seems to be the sweetspot
Excellent video and info. Thanks for creating & sharing this.
Glad it was helpful! 🙏
Thank you for the lesson! You can also work on the 15-minute chart and look for a break in the structure and a gap in fair value near the time window, if it is not there, go down to the 5-minute chart and look for it already inside the time window.
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i've tested this exact entry model from june 2022 till july 2023 (13 months, average winrate of 48% using 1% risk), only two months which ended up with 2% and 4% drawdown, the rest are profitable
- but i removed trades that didn't trigger by end of session + added 3 pips buffer for SL
How do you determine whether to go long or short once you’ve identified the FVG?
@friedfortnitelive5224 FVG above price (short) FVG below price (long) A fair value gap is the difference between the current market price of an asset and its perceived fair value. You are banking on the market returning to its "fair value," aka your entry, before continuing in the direction initially identified. You are waiting for the gap to get filled and then enter once the market considers itself balanced
which session? 11? if it doesnt trigger before 11 u remove the limit?
Wht is the reward you took
Just backtested it using SPX, over 120 trades with a 35-38% WR, did the backtesting for Aug-Nov 2022 with over 4% gain and another for May-Aug 2023 with a 10% gain. Thanks Casper!
🤝🙏
December 2020 38% wr
January 2021 40% wr
So strategy loses 60% of the time. You'd fail a ftmo account most of the time with that win rate.
@@youtubeislife2108 He loses 60% of the time 1 unit while winning 40% of the time 2 unit.
@@karatedog But if your lose streak is several losses in a row right there you failed your FTMO challenge. It's not uncommon to lose 10+ trades in a row.
Backtested from May 1st 2023, to today (August 12 2023). It is summer so i would expect it to be worse, but here are the results. A total of 19.07 RR (1% risk per trade = 19.07 % - the trade comissions). A grand total of 53 trades/trading days. Great profitable strategy, but to an experienced trader this is probably under your goals. I would recommend this to anyone new as it is super easy, and is enough to cover your losses from trading your own strategy that you are testing out!
Great video ❤
agreed! I backtested all of June so far on MES and the winrate was very profitable. Thanks for doing even more months.
What would you recommend for an experienced trader?
Just tried this one today, after back-testing it a few weeks. Win for today, defo keeping this one as a go to.
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I've been using the 62% entry tp at -0.27. Took me out of DD! Thanks Casper! I've even shared the video and the backtesting one with people asking for my strategy.
Hey
@@Carnagetelegrem I am still new to this. Casper has backtesting videos for his strategies.
Interesting I’ll have to test this. Thanks for being an awesome member of the community as always!!
what kinda winrate are you seeing
Can u please share it with me?
Hey casper i backtested this on jan 1 2022-2023 the winrate was 30% with 166 trades and by the end of the year i lost -7%
Really ? because I found it succesfull. Mind if you show me your screenshots or some footage of some of the trades that you took ? maybe your execution is the mistake
@@noemarcon4548 Yea do u have discord
Thanks for helping him out🙏
@@noemarcon4548what's your winrate?
@@noemarcon4548 kinda tried it on the last 2-3 months , and its at break even
I could literally kiss you, lol. The one tidbit about taking the very first fvg formed has completely transformed my results. Because it's only traded during one SB window, I could backtest super fast. I backtested 4 months (about 80 trades), my win rate was 51% with 28% profit return. Amazing. I will keep testing but this made me a SB lover again. Thank you!
Glad it helped! 🙏🙌
Beautiful, simply and straight to the point. Thanks alot
🙏🤝
I love what you said about the benefits of a mechanical strategy and taking the setup no matter what. Powerful! It's one of my problems. FUNDED
I agree. When Casper mentioned about it doesn't have to look perfect he was speaking directly to me lol
Let’s go!!!
Hi please I wanted to ask if it works on NY only? Can I use it for forex?
Abit late to the party but i have just tested Feb 2024 and March 2024.
Feb - 5 win, 9 loss - 1% gain
March - 7 win, 8 loss - 6% gain
Profitable but too many losses.
So clean and easy to understand.
Many appreciations!
Glad it was helpful!
❤ i just subscribed its amazing how much work do you put in this and i just tested out its true and it works about 60% al the time but its great with a nice risk management its perfect.thanks
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BT this over 35 days but I tested all 3 SB sessions.
35 days, total of 89 trades , 50wins and 39 losses which is a win rate of 56.17%. On a 100k account the gain would had been 61k. There 17 SB sessions with no trade setups. Did another test with less trades and funny , it came out the same win rate , 56%, 62 trades, 35 wins and 27 losses, 43k gain. As far as I can see , this works well over time. Nice work C.
🤝
Which 35 days did you backtest?
Yeah, I'm curious which dates you tested. I ran it through 3 months from August onwards and it was 40% with a 5k profit. And that's on a 150k account.
I am intraday trader and also using silver bullet but ur strategy is more clear and better .Thank you so much sir ❤❤❤
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You and arjo are the only ones that I watch . . I feel like I had my aha moment because it was just risk management and patience , even though I’m on my phase 2 . I really do see the future that lays ahead but I can’t really be celebrating until I get those payouts .. but I really do feel that I got it
It's great to hear that you found value in the content! Keep up the excellent work!
Perfect video, you just got yourself a new subscriber. Keep it up mate!
Awesome, thank you!
I think you are misleading your fans about the strategy,,ICT said you must have a draw on liquidity,MSS with high displacement then a breaker with FVG for entry
So if my maths is correct, based on the quarter you did tests on, you could very easily pass a challenge and just trade your funded based off of this strategy and this strategy alone. That's sick casper thank you so much for this video 🙏
Awesome! Thanks!
bro I've backested it for 140 days and the win rate is 41.67% on a total of 84 trades with a total return of 22.1% in like 5 months. Not bad but can be a lot better
@@ahhpaolo your backtest was for risk 1% ?
Keep in mind this is an isolated example and no doubt cherry picked for more engagement on this video. If you backtest this yourself you can see some months like Jan 2023 can end on -7% DD for example.
@FX-Tracer @@tradenchill9123 I just finished back testing this strategy from Jan 2022 till Aug 2023, at first I honestly thought I had found a cheat code, but after few months everything started going down hill. Although the results were not as good as I hoped, I am happy and grateful for all the knowledge Casper is providing, I am learning everyday.
Casper if you read this Thank you, from the time I found your channel I have gained knowledge and better understanding of chart analysis.
These were my results:
Jan 2022 - +8.19%
Feb 2022 - +8.17%
March 2022 - +4.66%
May 2022 - +6.02%
May 2022 - +3.92%
Jun 2022 - -4.92%
July 2022 - -2.02%
Aug 2022 - -2.08%
Sep 2022 - -1.06%
Oct 2022 - -4.36%
Nov 2022 - +0.48%
Dec 2022 - -0.36
Ytd 2022 = +16.62%
Jan 2023 - -1.12%
Feb 2023 - -4.10%
March 2023 - +8.46%
April 2023 - +14.85%
May 2023 - +5.75%
Jun 2023 - -2.02%
Jul 2023 - -6.90%
Aug 2023 - -1%
Ytd 2023 = +12.82%
2022-2023 = 31.56%
Total Trades 229
Wins 86
Losses 143
Win Rate 37.55%
1% Risk all trades!
Man This Is Great content for real this will help a lot I was In drawdown This Video gave me a lot of Hope!.... FUNDED!
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Funded - i really love how you make it easy to understand, i am gonna try this definitely, thank you!
Tweet me with your results!
@@caspersmc Sure i will!
I have a question. Should we treat gap up or gap down openings as FVG for this strategy?
I have tried this on the 3-4am session since last tuesday, Pretty impressed, 100% win rate so far, thanks for the video mate! thanks casper!
Did you backtest it ? It looks great but could change depending on the period
It’s still works at 3-4am?
Funded...
You make it so much easier man. Im looking forward to winning that challenge. All the way from South Africa 🇿🇦. Keep doing the work Jesse . You're saving lives for real 🙌🏾
african to african .....my guy this strategy is bullshit,it will blecksem you and your money
Happy to help! 🙏
i take it back this is a good strategy
Please can you explain to me the timings. I don’t get it, he said we should close all the trades before 4pm does that mean we keep the trade till 4pm. If so are we still going to be using the 5min timeframe?
Thanks for sharing your strategy bro! The beautiful thing about a 1:2 RR is that your win rate doesn’t even have to be high. You can go one month with a 50% win rate on this and still be profitable!
Thanks! 🔥🫡
Strategy-
1. 10am NY SB
2. 5m FVG formed (at or after10am before 11am)
3. Set Limit Order (SL @1st FVG candle with TP @2RR)
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10 AM NY IS 7:30PM IST RIGHT?
@@Jonas11-yv8ls Right
@@Jonas11-yv8ls Yes, according to a Google search.
@@franzrazzetti thanks
Thank you for the video! I have one question, How do you determine whether to go long or short once you’ve identified the FVG?
Thanks for sharing your take on this, @Casper SMC. If the third candle that prints to form a FVG happens to be the 10am candle, is it valid?
No words. All I can say is WOW. Thank You! ❤❤❤❤
Glad you like it!
Hey Casper. Your videos have really helped me iron out many problem areas in my trading. Thanks . I live in India and think I am ready to try a prop firm. I can t find much information online if this is allowed in India and which form should I choose ? Thanks so much
Appreciate this casper! Dont mind the negative comments..a strategy even if 40 to 50 percent with 1:2rr is still a win. The important part is having a strategy that will fit your life style. Will definitely try this out.. thanks man! Cheers! Funded! 😊🎉
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Hi, how can you say comments are negative if they are based on bactest :::
Do you use this strategy
Wow my first trade with this today and made 4% with 2% risk. So glad I found your video explaining it so well. Thank you.
That's great! Thanks 🙏
Thanks for all the education and info you share, I really appreciate it!
This strategy however I'm not so sure!
Tested from the 5th November to end of November in the live market on a demo a/c.
11 Losses, 3 wins, and 4 no FVG or Triggers, 1 close at 16:00 for 1:0.2 return giving a net loss for the month of -4.8%.
probably he chose the only month where it can be profitable and thats all
Hi Jesse! You give so much more then we all expect. With this strategy you have made it so simple, that we do not have any excuses. I have backtested it and I have around 50 to 60 % win rate, over 1 year period. I would also add here that I was also looking for MSS if I have a displacement with FVG. Do you think that we can use it also as an ny pm silver bullet? ( in case the markets are in am session to choppy). Thank you! Looking forward to see your next video!
what do you use to backtest?
hey, which year did you test?
Hi! I use Tradingview, but I have Excell sheet to track it all. @@FlippyFlippers
Hey! I have tested 2022. But I am focusing more on 2023 now.@@Hugowb
hey what pair did you use ?
Love this strategy as a mechanical way to get "in the zone" as Mark Douglas would say. Question for Jesse -- would you take an FVG entry if the first candle of the FVG was the 9:50 - 9:55am candle and the second candle (the body of the FVG) formed at 9:55 - 10am? Or does it work best with 10am forming the first candle of the FVG structure? Thanks!
I hope casper reply on this! good question! today i took a trade after first fair value gap was formed like at 9:50 and then second one was formed at 10:15 was confused! took trade on nq but lost it!
At the minute 11:10 in the video, he used a FVG with the first candle at 9:55 and I think that's the earliest it should be. Cause if the first candle is at 9:50 then the FVG is at 9:55 which is against the past 10 rule.
Today the FVG was at 10:45 and the entry kicked in at 11:25 and ran 11:50 for a 1:2. The one thing I can say is backtest. GO to Tradingview and backtest all of August to give you confidence. I backtest 60 days and YES, some entries come after 9:50. I would avoid before that because its market opening. The first 15 minutes there is a lot of manipulation
The first entry can be taken after 10:10 and ONLY if the fvg gap (the 2nd candle) was formed between 10:00-10:05
Funded. Thank you for sharing this, simplify and very detail. very helpful
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I will be back testing this strategy for the whole month. Thanks Casper. Funded
Good luck and let me know the results!
Sure bro I will.
hello! I was doing your silver bullet strategy and in October of last year I had a negative balance, having a negative month -7%, is that acceptable for a strategy?
I would say yes. In his video the chart he shows around the 14 minute mark showcases a 48% win rate and $27k (27%) Profit. But if you look at the last approximate month of the chart he goes from around $35K to about $26K before finishing around $27K. So he had a negative 8-9% month right at the end. I've heard other traders of 20+ years discuss massive losing streaks they've encountered where they went down 25%. Maybe not all in a month but probably over 2-4 months.
Funded- Nice video sir. Very informative. I will try to front test this myself. Thank you!
Please do!
FUNDED! Good I Will do more backtest In This strategy thanks for sharing and helping us
🙏🤝
Love this! Would you be up for doing a follow up to include adding additional confluences for those of us wanting to add more strength to the setup and increasing the WR?
Perhaps 1 or 2 other PD arrays that you would chose to increase the WR even more?
That would be ace! :)
Trading is mental game, that is why most people lose money because they cannot control their emotions. Because the prevalent idea of our culture is to effortless indulge and focus on their own pleasure and wellbeing, but controlling your emotions is unpleasant and painful and that is why most traders lose money because they don't want to meet the pain. That is why there is so many drugs, alcohol, obese and fat people, broken marriages and adultery.
*@cynthiaann931* Hello is she really good? am 70% portfolio down, Still have some spare to invest
Traders should exercise caution with their exposure and exercise caution when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a Discretionary fund manager or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields i learnt the hard.
I had a similar experience with Madam Elizabeth My initial investment capital was $1000 but made $13200 as profit in just the first week of trade. It was very big for me considering the fact that i have lost money in the past trying to trade on my own.
Hi Jesse, Quick question. What if on the 5 minute you get a fair value gap and price continues to move making more fair value gaps in that same direction but the price does not come back to the first fear value gap but comes back to the second fair value got formed. Is it okay to take the trade there at the second formed fair value gap? Or should you wait till it return to the first one always before entering?
Stop overthinking my friend, OTE helps with this
I say that with love
@@caspersmc ok thanks. I do overthink things at times. I took the entry off the second formed fair value gap because I didn't want to miss the move and price still hasn't come back to the first one. The trades worked out so it's all good. But I have been documenting in my back testing notes whether price returns to the first fair value gap versus the second or third one. I'm trading ES by the way so that's what I'm doing my back testing and forward testing studies on. Thanks again!
Hey Casper, how would you go about if there was a FVG (buy) created impulsively let’s say at 9:50 or 9:55 candle. And then maybe a little after 10 there’s a FvG on the sell side. Would you stay out the silver bullet trade or ?
Finding it hard to locate fvg, but this silver bullet simplified it, the 77% win rate shows how great Jesse is. Funded! Just changed my trading view time to New York zone.
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My results backtesting Feb-Aug 2023. (ICT suggest to avoid Jan). Trade 127, win rate 47.24%, ytd return 43.80%. Best month Apr 14.75%. Worst Month Aug -1.62% (4 trading days)
1st time watching your videos, i have been following ICT for a long time and am consistent. I enjoyed watching this. Can I ask why you do not take into account liquidity - for example if the 5M has purged liquidity above an old high/low, order flow has been disrupted, and returning to a 5M BISI likely lead to an IFVG. Is the purpose of this model to stick with directional bias from the FVG... I like the idea of the model, as it is focused on repetition, and discipline. One thing i found for myself where i would have loosing days is where i over complicate order flow. I am a neophyte, only trading ICT concepts on a funded since June (4 months of study first, then 2 months demo). Conceptually i have a great understanding of order flow, but at times my biggest struggle is my mental capacity. I remember ICT mentioning the need to keep a job while trading, or beginning as you over focus the need to win a trade. My progress this year has been great nonetheless. I aim to pass a funded account before December.
give it a rest pal you sound like a tit
Funded... This is awesome. I will surely test this. thanks for this Casper.
🙏❤️
At 5:20, you marked out the second FVG on that run up. Is there a reason why you chose the second over the first one? I noticed that if I had chosen that first one, it would not have picked up the trade.
The one you showed 09:22 was valid but you traded the wrong side. Silver bullet are a continuation pattern of the already ongoing trend. And the fair value gap do not have to be formed within that hour, it just has to form a entry into a fair value gap within it. And the exit can also be later
Is there any way you can further explain what you said regarding that "it doesn't have to form a FVG, but an ENTRY into a FVG"?
It doesnt have to be continuation cuz its called also opning range where reversal happened at 10 or 10:30 most of time cuz high or low of the session is formed
And does it work for gold or other pairs ?
Nice video. Thank you for the simplicity. I am backtesting Jan 22 to Dec 22 but so far Jan 22 has an awful 33% return. I will keep going. Hopefully the winrate improves.
Update:
I continued backtesting using FX Replay following the same exact rules mechanically. Here is my return so far (risking 0.5%)
1. Jan 2022 = -0.96%
2. Feb 2022 = -1.22%
For now, it doesn't look good enough for now in terms of profitability. However, I like the fact that I have lost only -2.18% in two months. That shows the strategy is excellent as a tool to cultivate discipline against overtrading and revenge trading. I can't wait to see what other months look like.
Sounds great!
You like the fact that you lost -2.18% in 2 months?????? 😂
that's bc this doesn't work
Hi mate! Sorry again for bothering you. If you look at today’s nas100 I’m curious about your thoughts. The first fvg has formed with second e third candles completely full. In this case you consider it as always? Or you consider also the fourth candle? And the trade would have been triggered long after 11am NY. Is still valid if fvg is formed in the 10-11 hour? Thanks again for helping out…think people is curious about that!
Hey Casper
Quick question - I understood wee are looking for FVG b/w - 10Am to 11Am. But what if market created and FVG and does not come back and creates another FVG before 11AM, should we change our entry to next FVG?
Been back testing something similar to this looking for a liquidity grab of London or NY PM/AM then wait for a displacement leg and a 5m fvg to form in the displacement leg. Close to an 80% win rate using 2:1
Bruh is there any way I can add you on discord or something? I've been struggling with Silver bullet because of my limited time I can dedicate to trading during the day. But anything I backtested didn't went into any profit. Many videos with many approaches for the silver bullet as well as original ICT's approach. For some reason in long term my backtests are going negative. Concepts and market structure seems to be clear for me, but there is definitely something I am missing out. Any way we could have a short chat and discuss your trading approach? Maybe this might help me. (No need to do that if you don't want to but I had to at least try) Peace ✌
What was your sample size of the trades ?
Oh really?
I backtested this strategy for 6 years, for a total of 1.102 trades risking 1%. Here are the results: 4/6 years were around 30-38% profit. Two years were -5% and +5%. Profit factor is around 1.3-1.2. Max drawdown is 16% and overall return is around +128%. I wouldn’t say it’s the best strategy, considering the amount of money risked, but it does work. And it is insanely easy to execute!
Also recommend using 0.5% per trade because 1.3 profit factors means u’ll go in drawdown sometimes… So be care-full.
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@@acetradesx was one of those bad years 2021? Backtesting that year now, and flat thru September’21
@@ChemistryNotesyeah, 2021 sucks. I think 2018 is bad also, if i remember well
Just backtested it, I am so excited to try this on a challenge account so I hope I win or even just a chance to pass a challenge account (even not the 100k account you are giving away) with this strategy :D
I really like how you simplify things and don’t make it sound complicated. My only question is I want to trade this strategy in Lebanon, what are the timings that are the best to trade this strategy. Because the timings really confused me. Also regarding this strategy we use the 5min timeframe, then we open the market at the best timing that I’m still trying to figure out, and then we wait for a fvg, is that correct. Sorry for this long paragraph but it’s just not a lot of people I know trade and the people I know that trade don’t use this strategy. 😅
Backtested this on MT5 with an EA i wrote for it 2021 - now:
Caspers rules:
WR: 36.68%
27% GOA
DD: 16%
I adjusted some rules (enter on 50% of fvg, RR 1:4):
WR: 30.6%
90% GOA in 2.5 years
DD 11.3%
risking 1% per trade
Ja mijn 6 maand backtest in eerste deel van 2016 is gelijkaardig.
0% winst
33% winrate
Profit factor 1
10.15% max relative drawdown
Zijn vorige OTE strategie heb ik wel success mee, wel wat veranderingen aan gemaakt.
@@bigmitch7901 ja het lastige vind ik daarvan: wat classificeer je als liq grab en wat laat je gaan. Ik was profitable maar marginaal. Dus ben het nog aan t uitzoeken.
Could you please share your EA with us? Maybe we can make some adjustments and come up with a better entries?
@@ibrahimmammadov6922 are you a coder?
can you backtest on 3 min chart? what is the win/loss ratio?