Chilcotin Slide
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ต.ค. 2024
- A little of my Google Earth geekiness creeping out. If you ASS-U-ME that the slide is 30m in height as has been quoted in numerous media articles, then here's a VERY rough estimation of what the water level behind the Chilcotin slide MIGHT look like if it begins to spill over at 30m above the original river height in that spot.
This is all very non scientific and I have no idea whether it bears any correlation with reality. It's just my best guess at what we'll see upstream before the river starts flowing again.
If things go differently, please don't burn me at the stake.
Thank you for going through the effort to create this. Much appreciated.
The lack of updates on this is frustrating! I can't believe there isn't a live update from today given how close it was to topping the slide yesterday.
Inept government. Place a ban on any drone or other air traffic and then not keep updates.
You say it’s non scientific… but you explain it better than all the scientists did ! GOOD JOB !
Excellent analysis! I really appreciate this visualization of the situation. Thanks.
That was a great presentation, much better then the official media, and it really shows allot. I sure hope the water just chews slowly through and does not have a massive burst.
From experience, the water will begin to erode a deeper channel once it overtops the slide. There will be flooding downstream. The best approach to limit this is to dig a channel now so less water builds up before cutting its own channel.
Any timeline given for when it’s expected to top the slide, and have they given any specific details of what they plan to do
Thanks for putting this together. It gives a good idea of what to expect
Good Job on this clip. You did an excellent job of helping to visualize the situation there!
Howdy from Texas. I’ve been watching any news on this situation and I grant you the crown of the nerdiest presenter so far. I’ve played with Google Earth before, you have to be a nerd to pass the learning curve. But then it can be great fun when you come up with good questions. Yours was one of them.
That was a better review of the possible affects than any news station has offered.
Thanks for the effort. The lates I heard on the news is they expect the water to begin to spill over the slide tonight. I hope there's enough light so someone takes some video of it for all to see.
thanks for the video by the way. been looking for something like this for the last couple days. very nice!
yeah, you get a sub just on principal looking at your uploads! 👍👍
I wonder if the saturated embankments will cause further slides?
A possibility I wondered, which could create a mini tsunami if timed right which could potentially wash away the existing slide faster.
This happened in California in 2017 during the Oroville Dam crisis. So much water was released that farmland downstream was lost due to saturation of the river banks.
Should make a dam downstream while it's dry and maintain the level for irrigation.
Build the fish passages and done.
Alex Fraser or WAC Bennett would do it for the Chilcotin.......
Nice work
Are you Darryl's brother?
Search “William’s Lake First Nation, Fly Over the Chilcotin River Landslide.” for a great aerial view of it. 🤙
I had wondered that myself, but until you put the blue elevated section up, I couldn’t picture exactly what it would look like that’s a lot of water
I looked at the lidar from the gov site, the measure tool give near identical result to your poly. nice work.
I am not sure if the 30m height of the dam is from the original surface of the water or from the bottom of the river bed. However this visualization gives a very good representation of maximum lake size.
🇨🇦Thank you for the information
Interesting google earth analysis. Some BCGOV are saying they expect this overtopping could be slow. I've seen fairly large river slide obstructions in BC with saturated soils like this slide and they can erode pretty quickly once a channel develops. The worst thing is to downplay when communicating risk as people will simple ignore warnings from mixed messages. Williams Lake First Nation has a chopper "Fly over the Chilcotin River landslide, Thurs. Aug 1, 2024; 3:30PM" 7min video where they fly far up the river beyond the slide and the lake is already pretty long.
Nice work! Any thumbnail estimates of volume?
Slumping of the landmass in this area has been common over time. At 2:42 on your video just to the right of centre on the bottom of the picture shows a huge mass that has detached and slid towards the river. There are numerous smaller detachments within the main slide area.
Nice work, thanks and bless& miracles for all involved in this Chilcotin slide… 😎♾️🇺🇸
A few hours of aerial lidar surveying, over the slide and some topo calculations a path for where the water will potentially make its way through.
Probably, as good as can be done from a first approximation. The views I've seen of the slide foot seem to show that horizontal folding in line with the original river route occurred, so those may act as channels and depending on that 30m calculation (min/avg/max) it may commence reflow below that level however it was devised. Good stuff.
[any depth gauges along that span?]
I used AutoCAD Civil 3d and ESRI for years. Nice work!😊
Wonder if the saturation of the soil will compromise the banks in other spots where the water is highest behind the dam, possibly produce more landslides upper river from the dam
I heard in another report that this is likely, especially if the water behind the dam releases too quickly.
This was a nice presentation, well done !
Is it also possible to do a 'worst case' scenario, where the water would break the dam in 1 time, and say, a flash flood of +/- 20meter goes through the valley ?
Ofcourse this is probably a bit harder to simulate, because the flash flood would get less and less high as it flows through the river.
Great visualization
Great analysis! Hopefully Farwell Canyon doesn’t get too jammed up with logs as the river narrows there substantially. Also wondering if anyone knows if there were any commercial rafting trips on the river at the time? Feel bad for those companies as this is prime time for them.
I cant recall EVER seeing such an event as what is unfolding in BC.
This is a genuinely frightening part of Nature,....a REMINDER of sorts that Humans are not its MASTERS, but are its CHILDREN❤
You can see previous slippage all the way along the banks, there could be more slippage yet...
The issue is that the landslide is loose media. if/when it spills, it's likely that one of two things will happen: (1) it dislodges the landslide and comes down all at once, or (2) it overtops, but quickly erodes the media, turning into a torrent of water (much like those videos of folks connecting rivers to the ocean through sand - a small trench turns into a 20 meter wide torrent in minutes)
Every bend was a slide and the water goes around not over top or eventually bends around. I predict same.
I had no idea you could do that on Google earth! Very cool and thank you!
Amazing.
You just provided the single most useful Explanation of exactly what we're dealing with and what the real risk is.
I don't know how to do it but can you take this one step further.
How long will it take for that volume of water to fill the reservoir that you have created With your model?
Obviously the assumption would be that the land slide will hold until the reservoir is full. Any chance you can come up with that answer? I have subscribed and am following
insanely irresponsible of canada to just say "F it" i coulda gone in there with dynamite and a few excavators and had a channel cut in 40 hours. no telling how many lives homes and bridges are going to be taken out not to mention miles and miles of roads. they have no idea how destructive this is going to be. or maybe they do....
there will be a river there again soon, don’t you worry. Mother Nature has got this.
@@jimhofoss9982 The problem is mother nature doesn't work to schedule, if we can decide when the river comes back we can tell people when to be prepared by, and when it will be dangerous/safe.
There is no way you could drive heavy equipment on that soupy mess. Take a minute to stop and think before you post.
@@xiphosura413 I think watching it closely as it is nearing the washout….a live cam setup would be more than welcome for all nearby residents….but can’t fly a drone to keep people updated…the coverage is weak for such a potentially damaging flood. Looks like a start of the breaching will start today. Best wishes to the people living in this area….stay safe!
Just off to Google maps seeya! TFS, GB :)
back of the napkin, 200m^3/s X 110hr =7,920,000 cubic meters or around 6400 acre feet for the americans.
What is that in football fields? 😅
Question: 7,920,000 mil = 7,920,000,000,000 ? --curious american
@@clarencegreen3071 yea my bad scrach that "mil"
@@bcmineresearch 1000 American football fields 16 yards deep
How many tons of water are building up behind the blockage?
From that, you can calculate the amount of energy that will be released.
They should be digging a trench to start the release of water ASAP.
I guess this could give comfort to those up stream of the blockage!
The local gov added the banks of the Chilcotin upstream from the prior evac area to near Hanceville. I wonder if 30m max depth has changed to 40 or 50m? That could be bad.
Look at where the chilcotin meets the fraser. The east side once slid and will slide again. If this wall hits the fraser there might be a slide that blocks both.
Interesting, thanks for putting this on the web.
Cool vid. It's "not that bad", but also a huge volume of water at the same time.
Nice job. It's going to take quite a while before the water rises to 30 m, where it will begin to overtop the slide. It's too bad there hasn't been a lidar scan of the slide so we could see what the actual level is and what the possible path(s) might be for the water to flow.
I wonder what the 2004 and 1964 slide areas look like today?
great graphic. nothing really to worry about upstream but downstream is still a question mark at this time. thank you.
The raised river will probably cause more slides and more debris will add to the slide area.
This is all predicated. Upon the assumption he won’t have more landslides downstream, raising the level more . Or when the water backs up a landslide occurs again, and all that water goes down stream in a big hurry
Thanks for this. Good job.
Cool video. I’m all the way down in southwestern USA, but I kinda follow natural disasters and occurrences all over the place. I wish I could see live footage of it overtopping. I hope everyone is safe.
What's the volume under the polygon to the surface of the river and the banks? Will your software calculate that for you?
Again...not only water backup point but volume tools readily available are not being discussed very precicely with the public.???????
Great job!!
It already flowing over the slide.
Cant find anything on the news yet. 7:30 Monday morning.
Wow Grant Thank you I used Google earth to find out the shot distances from years gone by amazing technology
Fascinating - thank you.
Nice work!
Of course, someone mentioned waterlogged slopes upstream which could create additional slides and tsunamis and I wonder how the water when it reaches near the top of the slide if it will run around the edges like most breeches do or will it get under the slide long before it reaches the top and push right thru the slide?
Thanks for posting
Great video!
It's just about show time. Based on some images tonight your data is bang on. Let's all hope it goes well and slowly
👍, How long will take to fill the lake at a average discharge between 1-1,5 Million cm per day?
good work.
Shouldnt have to be rocket science for people in charge to know EXACTLY how far back it would backup.Altimiters in a cell phone will do that.
Thanx for the pics.Am very familiar with the upstream extent you showed.
That is a lot of water
Awesome video thank you
Well done. Clearly you’ve won the award for sensible media coverage for this event, including what has yet to transpire. Thank you. 👍👍
Cool graphics, I don't think the dam with bust open to wide and full of logs.
Oh dear, you must hurry and save nature from itself.
Reckon it will be a couple of months before folk really need to worry downstream.
if the government is that concerned the can dynamite a channel into the slide, the water flowing through will do the rest.
but I hope the leave it to form the lake area, eventually water will find its way over/through the slide and nature will set its new normal.
How much water would that be?
Cool! Thank you
Good job! Thanks
ı am wondering why the authorities have not blown a groove out of the centre of the slide so that when it does overflow less water is released?
Unconsolidated and unstable ground would put people at risk. There isn’t much infrastructure directly downstream that is close
Well done sir!👍
Based on the view in th-cam.com/video/lUDxIrP7e1I/w-d-xo.htmlsi=ggk-POq_-wVyNxOX the landslide might be 30m high above the base of the river, not the surface.
wonderful video, need to do something to muffle those mouse clicks.
Good depiction, however 30 m height/depth doesn't mean 30 m above water surface level.
If 30 m is accurate (not rounded up or exaggerated), then the elevation of the top of the blockage is likely about 555 m ASL.
Where is chilcoten?
Wouldn’t a new lake be nice?
Cool video
Basicly, it will be a lagoon breach: th-cam.com/video/LhQ2c5QblhU/w-d-xo.html
The slide material is wet, loose and granular, not unlike beach-sand. If the dam is expected to overtop sometime tonight, then the lagoon breach scenario will happen, there will be a high, short flood, and there's not a damn thing anybody, even Gubmint Canada, can do about it.
Leave your excavators in the yard and save your dynamite for your next fishing trip.
@@Aitch-102 The mechanism in that kind of material is precisely the same. Only the scale differs. How do YOU envisage the dam failing? Detailed answer, or STFU.
We'll know pretty soon anyway.
@@Aitch-102 Like I said, detailed answer, or STFU.
I'll give you an hour to come up with an answer before I come back and EDUCATE you some more. 🤣
@@thonbrocket2512 Yeah, I didn't see any houses swept away in your little beach daydream. Maybe you should STFU after all.
What the hell are they going to do let the water go where it wants to? they could have blasted a path down through the slide and made an opening for the water to travel onward instead of allowing it to build up and cause catastrophic damage down stream, why haven’t they done something or tried something before the water gets to a critical point of flash flooding everyone down river.
Far too dangerous to go onto the slide to place explosives. Surface charges would do very very little.
@@bcmineresearch well sometimes nature is the best path, and I guess we’ll see how it works in this situation, if it starts cutting a path soon it may release the water more gradually than all at once like a flood.
@Clarence-to5qx
I think we all have our fingers crossed and are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
@@bcmineresearch yes sir I understand completely it’s all hands on deck for this situation and get your personals out of the house if your in a bad spot along the river.
No trees in area to hold the land in place 🙄
Trees would not have helped. Very deep slide. Naturally unstable ground.
wow and the Australian govt could not do this poly when they flooded us can see to the tree where water is coming to top job mate
That's cuz it's a different situation entirely. I live in Brissie, I presume you mean the 2022 floods? This is like measuring the height of the dam, not the flood downstream. That is a lot harder and depends on topography, rainfall, time spent flowing, ground saturation, etc. There are measurements available now on gov sites like qldglobe because we have recorded data for how high the waters came, but it is very difficult to know beforehand the height of a downstream flood considering they had precious little idea how much they'd need to release and for how long. We were lucky that unlike 2011 the dam actually had some capacity to spare, and they did a great job managing it so as to not cause a flood many times worse considering even more rain fell than in 2011.
TL;DR this polygon is like measuring the height of Wivenhoe. Easy and pointless in a flood. The flood is DOWNSTREAM of the dam. Notice how the polygon stops AT the dam/landslide. Floods are much harder to model.
Average soil Joe
Please normalize your audio to -3 Db.
Terrifying
why. if it backs up and then just ends up flowing over there will be very little if any people affected, and the environment will just adjust. is still not as high as the last old river bank level.
@@everestcomputer I have seen rivers blocked by landslides before, with large volumes of water backing up behind them. Once the water starts to run over the top it will most likely cut a channel through the soil deposited by the landslide at a very rapid rate as the soil is likely not compacted as a result of having been part of the landslide. The last one I saw let go in such a way that the channel it cut reached the river bed in a 15 minutes and resulted in such a flow that the main body of water caught up with the first run-off about 2 Kms downstream and caused a wall of water 5mtrs high.
@@davidstephens1092 guess we'll see. experts also said it would have collapsed by now....
@@davidstephens1092 seems like it found a spot to cut through, its chooching now...