In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living
Centre around two key targets. In the first place, remain safeguarded by realising when to offer stocks to cut misfortunes and catch benefits. Second, get ready to benefit when the market turns around. I suggest you look for the direction a representative or monetary consultant.
Exactly why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/ analvsis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 400k
@@LionTowercoporation I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides you help?
@@LionTowercoporation I will look her up online and do my due diligence. If She seem proficient. I will write her an email outlining my financial objectives and scheduled a phone call.
Australia has this Right. Developers can not access even the 10% deposit buyers pay in to the Trust account of their lawyers until the property has achieved Local Council Occupancy requirements.
Australia has it right for whom? The goal of CCP China real estate isn't for the protection of the buyer. It's for the protection of banks, developers and government. The individual means nothing for the CCP. It's role is to fill the state's need. Using western examples and applying them to CCP China is just silly.
Are you sure about this number of developers have gone bust in Australia taking deposits not having proper insurance and don't even get started on the defective appartment blocks in all major cities of Australia
@@definat111 I am 100% sure. It is legally impossible to drawdown on Off the Plan purchasers'10% deposit with out a Certificate Of Occupation. I have developed/built over 250K sqms of apartments and hotel ($3.74 billion in value) within 4 kms of Sydney Tower, Pitt St Mall.
Trust me, the Chinese situation is way better than the Aussie and the dying SK. If the RBA continues to raise the cash rate, the property boom madness will turn into a rental crisis, or it already is. I think another WA builders had gone liquidation this Wednesday, and the worst is yet to come. Basically we all gonna be fked in the post-pandemic world because the politicians wanted a war rather than cooperation.
When you spend more than 50% of income just to pay mortgage, you are mortgage slaves. Cannot afford losing your job or being sick. That is a lot of stress!
Not issue since you are paying yourself, or saving for an asset that value appreciates over time. Pay for 20 years and get to stay for next 50 years or collect rent or reverse mortgage for retirement. Else how do you retire early?
@@panoptijohn Housing value looks very long-term, by decades. See even after Japan's property crash from 80s, still not impacted because are mainly ownership rather than rentals. So there is less volatility.
The policy of paying before having a house built is common in my country too, and it never ends well. For one reason or another, the developers disappears (I guess not in some horrible, remote shack), leaving penniless people and unfinished buildings.
it's a matter of laws; in some countries people can pay before getting a house, but developers get the money only after actually finishing it: until then the money remains on a special bank account, and will be refunded if the house is never finished
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.Read more
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.Read more
I had the pleasure of working with one and it proved to be immensely advantageous as they helped me restructure my entire portfolio. My advisor is none other than ‘CATHERINE MORRISON EVANS, a renowned figure in her line of work whom you may be familiar with.
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $150K to $489k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
'Catherine Morrison Evans’ is the coach that guides me. She’s a verified coach and she helped me see that returns can be made in both bull and bear markets. She covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded and looking at ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk, look - her up .
It’s been tankinng for awhile, but a lot of people still denying it. Well they can’t deny it now since Evergrande gone bankrupt and Country Garden defaulted
You failed to mention that much of recent demand was speculative. People bought second and third homes that were never finished that they never intended to live in, in the hopes that they could resale for more later. Once prices stop going up, people not only stop buying those extra homes, but also start flooding the market with homes they don’t need in order to get out before a crash. This then causes the very crash they hoped to avoid. The only way China will achieve “price stabilization” is by forbidding people to sell their unused extra homes.
It's why housing shouldn't be used as investment. If you do not intend to live in it then you shouldn't be allowed to buy it. Speculative investment on housing is one of the worst poisons in the economy.
I first learned about the Evergrand news while I was traveling in Sharm El-Shake, Egypt in September 2021. I have been traveling for almost 3 weeks, disconnected from the media on my journey. Finally got a decent resort hotel with BBC, suddenly this news about the home buyers protests. It's predictable that when you pay large deposit for something you cannot have, and lack of rules and regulations like china, corruptions, mishandling funds is bound to happen. They said men cannot get a wife without an apartment in China!
Between a crashing demography, killing future demand in an over built market. And a model based on never ending value appreciation. There is no demand as people won’t borrow if the house values are over priced and there is no longer a guarantee of future value increases.
@@youarebeingtrolled6954 We live in an inflation reliant economy. Even though depreciation is awesome for a buyer, inflation is required to help repay debt. The money masters will counter with everything to continue inflation = higher prices.
Another problem this video doesn't mention is store of value. A LOT of chinese dump their entire life savings into housing instead of the stock market like in the USA. This messes with what is "true demand" vs speculation and will make housing prices even more volatile
Rght, the real lack of investment in local markets does not help employment diversity, all your eggs in one basket when the bubble bursts is a GDP killer.
China has been building houses/apartments that were too expensive for home buyers to pay for. The buyers counted on that there would be people who would pay even higher prices. This bubble grew bigger and was bound to burst sooner or later.
It's not because of the macro population trend - it's not like China's population has suddenly dropped - rather it's a combination of the state of the economy, balance sheets of developers, and the slow implosion of the giant price bubble built up over the last 30 years.
The macro population trend will have some effect here because investors are coming to grip with the fact that there is no longer an expectation that there will be a continually growing source of organic housing demand, but in fact a decades long, maybe even century long decrease.
to me it feels like it has reached saturation in a very abrupt pace, i feel that the boom before this was way unnatural, and many developers jumped on the bandwagon, only to lose in this game of musical chair, which was bound to happen.
The thing is that everyone knew this was unsustainable ever since ghost cities started popping up unnaturally fast. In most of America ghost cities can be equated to a major manufacturer leaving town so everyone moves away slowly. These ghost cities were just built dumped and never lived in so it never used its value as a building.
You assume they have the right plumbing for irrigation; the load bearing necessary to sustain thousands of tons of soil, and the willingness to pay for energy intensive lighting.
Can't blame the developers only.. it's the greedy buyers who enabled the greedy developers. Go to other countries see what those same greedy speculators are doing to house prices elsewhere. Many who truly need housing cannot afford them because greedy speculators hoarding them. Same ppl.
They over-extended themselves. Instead of taking money for one project and using it in that project, they went on to spend the money on 5 new projects.
China is in a No-Win situation....sale of land funds the Provinces, Cities, Towns and Wards. Real estate forms a sizeable portion of GDP and hence employment. With real estate stagnating or even shrinking due to bankruptcies, the GDP must fall...a Red Line in itself. I cannot see a solution.
More than likely at some point they will shift to a property tax model to fund the local governments so they are funded based on the current base versus future growth.
China local government needs to get away from relying on property selling and transitioning towards a tax and service oriented model to fund the government operations. It is not going to be easy for sure.
@@MyMovie5858 Yes, but then the people may wonder why they actually have no real say in political matters when they have to pay for all of that. No taxation without representation.
Low skilled work force is shrinking, but “high skilled” work force are growing fast. There are 10 million 2-year and 4-year college graduates each year and many of them don't want jobs in manufacturing and service sector.
Shocking and shoddy builds with floors giving way with big holes to lower floors means every build cannot be safe for dwelling. No insurance companies will back them.
As w/the 1 child policy the CCP *_did not_* foresee the repercussions of requiring buyers to pay the cost of a home in full & passing on that money to the builders.
As usual Colliers is always optimistic .. I think the correction will be deep.. and may take years to stable .. separately Chinese have also ‘exported’ their pre sale practice to neighboring countries n these countries will also be facing a property correction due to the Chinese ‘demand’ that has now tapered off .. the ‘tap’ has just stopped on properly markets everywhere .. at least for the next few years ..
Supply and demand is only part of the problems … In a true market economy .. price correction would have happened a lot earlier … But really the system failed them … there should have never ever any rotten-tail project .. as in theory down payment + mortgage loan are going to the developers .. they would have plenty of money to finish the project .. but greedy developers used these money to buy more land and developed more projects .. full value from banks again when they’re pre-sold .. exactly like a ponzi scheme .. rules and regulations to finish the projects were ignored .. by corruptions all over the places including banks .. resulted buyers are paying mortgages without homes
In the US a contractor can only take 10% down when building a project for you and there is a schedule of work that has to be complete before the next payment is due. Missing a payment would cause a lien on the property by the contractor or missing a completion deadline would kick in a fine on the contractor each day the schedule is behind. Civil Law was invented by the market in western civilization which communism doesn't apply but rather is authoritarian.
chinese viewed housing as a store of money so many people were buying 2nd, 3rd or even 4th homes expecting to sell it later so developers kept building to meet that artificial demand, raising prices for first time homebuyers and creating a huge oversupply
Somehow finish the existing Housing and Reality Projects. Somehow China needs to see the transportation costs on terms of Market Prices for easy sales-on-Clearance of unsold Housing Units.
Let those scam developers finish those projects first before allowing them to borrow money or accept new projects or customers. Its sad knowing a lot of people there are continuously paying for unfinished houses while unable to move yet and some forced to stay to these hollow buildings without water or electricity.
The buyers borrowed money from the banks not the developers. They are obliged to pay for the bank's debt. The house was used as a collateral, but an unfinished house would be worth a lot less than it was collateralized for. The bank would request the borrower to fill the gap of lost value if the case goes into a default. In addition, there is no liquidation for individuals in China. In short, under China's financial rules, there's no escape from the money you borrow in the mortgage, never ever, even if it resulted in no house delivered.
Congratualtions on reaching the 100K level. Great video and whatever you did to block out wind noise worked very well. These industries have got to be running out of suckers.
Only one problem, the chinese housing market is not based on market principles. Its state controlled, demand for state products and state owned loans could go to 0 if you lose sight of the real market.
The loss is shared equally by the buyer and the developer, however, if the developer rebuilds it, the cost will almost certainly grow while the developer stays unprofitable because the buyer's payment remains below the cost, and the buyer will face 100% of the loss.
it's crazy that china didnt even have a sort of red tag system that would force Everygrande to pay back lenders (at least) before they can access their funds. China is known for it's rigid social control but they really drop the ball on many micromanagement sectors of their economy.
The government needs to compare the economic and social (feeling of injustice) cost of bailing out developers vs the lower cost of clear laws and rules designed to prevent developer misuse of funds. Anticipate instead of react after the fact.
Why SCMP can't produce any updated inside story but lets their viewers savor outdated leftovers of other medias? We need to know the news, what are the current situations of the RE market and Evergranda in China, instead of repeating old stories.
@@panoptijohn Nope I'm unlucky enough having to content with certain cultures in my own country harassing my wife while rarely getting out anymore because of rampant gun violence. How are you holding up?
@@blokin5039 Chinese wolf warriors constantly remind the world that China is an indispensable part of the global economy and destined to become the world's leading economy. Is it not right, therefore, to pay attention to it?
China is so short of food...so why not start indoor farming under LED lights? Can use all the incomplete apartments or completed empty apartments. When demand increases, just move the racks back out.
For those who were hoping this would be the end of China's rise - Sorry to disappoint you - Chinese leadership knows how to handle crisis such as this. - Do you see any bank runs in China lately?
"The price of life is to high to give up. It's got to come down again." (Merle Haggard) What's done is done so time for solutions everyone can live with. The people deserve to get what they paid for!
The local governments are trying to raise finances by fining anything and everything they can, public servants income is linked to the amount of fines they generate for the population.
It's not up to the scientific community to convince people the science is sound. Their job is science. It's up to people to get a friggin' clue and stop believing conspiracy theories.
it could be mainly because china's yuan is tied to the state and is routinely devalued to avoided a natural occurrence when markets are trying to correct.
It will crash ... People's jobs are leaving , many of these homes are second or speculation homes so they are under the fire .. The crash will be amazing to see ...
Most 1st and 2nd tier price are mostly flat but on other cities, it’s falling. Demand still high cause peoples migrate to bigger tier cities. Hence the high price.
@@ttemp2631 "not interested in smaller cities" That's why prices are still high in large cities. Those are the only places people want to live. Prices are falling in smaller cities because people don't want to live there as much. Eventually it will catch up to the big cities also. Give it a few more years.
As for all business it requires rules and regulations by the government to oversee fair development. You can see the results when lawlessness. Housing bubble!
USA had it's own housing crash in 2009 to 2013, when a small house sold for 120,000 in 2005 was available for auction at 40,000 by 2013. A 1/3rd correction. Some damaged houses (Angry owners) were left empty for years and sold as low as 18,000. Govts subsidized the real-estate taxes, the banks lowered interest rates + temporary breaks with lower payment plans. The prices only recovered in 2021. Promoting houses as a get-rich scheme is bad idea.
That’s whack- how do Chinese banks even if approve mortgages on incomplete projects. Are the appraisals valued on concept? Besides the way property laws work there, you never own the land (only leased).
Appraisals are valued on concept here too in the west. You think people don't pre sale new construction buildings or don't get loans to build new construction? Besides you pay property tax and the concept of eminent domain is a thing. Do people really own the land outside of a paper saying they do that the government permits you to use with restrictions?
@@aaronp2542 not quite correct. they are valued at the phase of the construction and any smart lender won't lend more than 80% of LTV of that stage. For example, the builder would finance the build via construction loan. but a construction loan is appraised based on the land value which is significantly less value than a completed home. Only when the house is completed, does it qualify for an appraisal of traditional mortgage; so different risk and underwriting guidelines all together. In China- the lender/builder is essentially bypassing construction loan and using the entire mortgage (based on agreed value of the builder essentially) to finance the construction to completion; bypassing a lot of check and balance. The homeowner in China is also an idiot for assuming the full risk of the construction in progress. At least here in the US, if my builder doesn't complete the project, I can't qualify for the mortgage and therefore assume the risk of an incomplete project.
There is no point for these home owners in China to keep paying mortgages when they know that the chance of finishing construction on their home is 1% or less. I would stop paying and declare bankruptcy if I were them.
Many local govts sitting on huge debt due to their unethical practice in order to fulfill that made-believe annual GDP, yet many continued to borrow even more money to cover the original debt, and now, debt on top of debt on top of debt. The central govt can censor all the bad news they want, but numbers don't lie. Chinese govt is sitting on top of a vortex of debt, this debt crisis is not just going to go away.
Is not issue since China has huge foreign reserves, so its only domestic debt that they can forgive if they want to with no/little impact to their economy. This is similar to most Western countries.
@@Hkchinese888 Nope China's debt is almost exclusively domestic and on top of that they are the largest international creditor. China has huge reserves.
China and the Chinese people went through even much worse situations before in their history you know. From famine due to the failure of the Great Leap Forward to social turmoil as a result of the Cultural Revolution. China and Chinese people would rise up in the end, stronger and wiser. This property crisis is not even a major concern for the Chinese government, just a temporary setback
lol, it's over 30% of their economy and it's going to be completely wiped out soon. If you're going to push your nonsense propaganda, at least make it somewhat believable... Now that the entire civilized world is decoupling from China, it's all over. The CCP knows their fake economy will not last, that's why the CCP has turned China into a police state with no freedom. China is basically a larger North Korea. Soon they will be just as poor as them too.😆😂
You said. "This property crisis is not even a major concern for the Chinese government, just a temporary setback" You are generally correct. The Chinese government does NOT care about the Chinese people. It only cares about staying in power. As long as there aren't enough people rioting to overthrow the it, things are OK for the government.
@@jkardez4794I'm still waiting for the coming collapse of China as many experts hv been bragging on the internet. I'm just curious how many days u as the expert give china before it collapses completely to stone age!!?
In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living
Centre around two key targets. In the first place, remain safeguarded by realising when to offer stocks to cut misfortunes and catch benefits. Second, get ready to benefit when the market turns around. I suggest you look for the direction a representative or monetary consultant.
Exactly why i enjoy my day to day market decisions being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/ analvsis they have, it's near impossible to not outperform, been using a portfolio-coach for over 2years+ and I've netted over 400k
@@LionTowercoporation I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides you help?
@@LionTowercoporation I will look her up online and do my due diligence. If She seem proficient. I will write her an email outlining my financial objectives and scheduled a phone call.
Australia has this Right. Developers can not access even the 10% deposit buyers pay in to the Trust account of their lawyers until the property has achieved Local Council Occupancy requirements.
Australia has it right for whom?
The goal of CCP China real estate isn't for the protection of the buyer. It's for the protection of banks, developers and government. The individual means nothing for the CCP. It's role is to fill the state's need.
Using western examples and applying them to CCP China is just silly.
Are you sure about this number of developers have gone bust in Australia taking deposits not having proper insurance and don't even get started on the defective appartment blocks in all major cities of Australia
@@definat111 I am 100% sure. It is legally impossible to drawdown on Off the Plan purchasers'10% deposit with out a Certificate Of Occupation.
I have developed/built over 250K sqms of apartments and hotel ($3.74 billion in value) within 4 kms of Sydney Tower, Pitt St Mall.
Australia has much more regulations, both banking and construction.
Still lots of developer/ builder bankrupt, some people left in difficult places.
Trust me, the Chinese situation is way better than the Aussie and the dying SK. If the RBA continues to raise the cash rate, the property boom madness will turn into a rental crisis, or it already is. I think another WA builders had gone liquidation this Wednesday, and the worst is yet to come. Basically we all gonna be fked in the post-pandemic world because the politicians wanted a war rather than cooperation.
When you spend more than 50% of income just to pay mortgage, you are mortgage slaves. Cannot afford losing your job or being sick. That is a lot of stress!
Not issue since you are paying yourself, or saving for an asset that value appreciates over time. Pay for 20 years and get to stay for next 50 years or collect rent or reverse mortgage for retirement. Else how do you retire early?
True, but the returns on investing in property have been MUCH better than what the alternatives were: 300%. Welcome to 21st C America.
@@cooper1819 The value doesn't seem to be appreciating. In fact, it's doing quite the opposite. That's the issue.
@@panoptijohn Housing value looks very long-term, by decades. See even after Japan's property crash from 80s, still not impacted because are mainly ownership rather than rentals. So there is less volatility.
@YoDaddi Nah, got no more mortgage. Am on FIRE. just wasting time putting up posts when not on vacation. 😜
The policy of paying before having a house built is common in my country too, and it never ends well. For one reason or another, the developers disappears (I guess not in some horrible, remote shack), leaving penniless people and unfinished buildings.
it's a matter of laws; in some countries people can pay before getting a house, but developers get the money only after actually finishing it: until then the money remains on a special bank account, and will be refunded if the house is never finished
In The past it's called
"Paying for fruit from a tree which hasnt bore a fruit"
Which has been illegal even from the Roman Era
What country you live in ?
@@anthonyfam5469in Kazakhstan we have government backed company, which is building things over 10+ years. I got one.
atleast you still have the land.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.Read more
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.Read more
I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?
I had the pleasure of working with one and it proved to be immensely advantageous as they helped me restructure my entire portfolio. My advisor is none other than ‘CATHERINE MORRISON EVANS, a renowned figure in her line of work whom you may be familiar with.
she actually appears to be well-read and educated. I just did a Google search for her name and found her webpage, I appreciate you sharing
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
My main concern now is how can we generate more revenue during quantitative times? I can't afford to see my savings crumble to dust.
It's a delicate season now, so you can do little or nothing on your own. Hence I’ll suggest you get yourself a financial expert that can provide you with valuable financial information and assistance
Very true! I've been able to scale from $150K to $489k in this red season because my Financial Advisor figured out Defensive strategies which help portfolios be less vulnerable to market downturns
How can I reach this adviser of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?
'Catherine Morrison Evans’ is the coach that guides me. She’s a verified coach and she helped me see that returns can be made in both bull and bear markets. She covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded and looking at ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk, look - her up .
It’s been tankinng for awhile, but a lot of people still denying it. Well they can’t deny it now since Evergrande gone bankrupt and Country Garden defaulted
You failed to mention that much of recent demand was speculative. People bought second and third homes that were never finished that they never intended to live in, in the hopes that they could resale for more later. Once prices stop going up, people not only stop buying those extra homes, but also start flooding the market with homes they don’t need in order to get out before a crash. This then causes the very crash they hoped to avoid. The only way China will achieve “price stabilization” is by forbidding people to sell their unused extra homes.
They bought 2nd and 3rd ones during the bubble, meaning speculating that prices would continue upwards. Same thing happened in the US in 2007.
Correct and they're doing same thing in other countries causing same problems... greedy speculators
It's why housing shouldn't be used as investment. If you do not intend to live in it then you shouldn't be allowed to buy it. Speculative investment on housing is one of the worst poisons in the economy.
And in addition to prices dropping, I think the lock down had people nervous and less willing to spend/invest
I first learned about the Evergrand news while I was traveling in Sharm El-Shake, Egypt in September 2021. I have been traveling for almost 3 weeks, disconnected from the media on my journey. Finally got a decent resort hotel with BBC, suddenly this news about the home buyers protests. It's predictable that when you pay large deposit for something you cannot have, and lack of rules and regulations like china, corruptions, mishandling funds is bound to happen. They said men cannot get a wife without an apartment in China!
Your mom also got a decent hotel with BBC 😂😂
Abs asia men don't get splurged on fomo backpacking or sabbatical but get on the saddle and their life purpose
Between a crashing demography, killing future demand in an over built market. And a model based on never ending value appreciation. There is no demand as people won’t borrow if the house values are over priced and there is no longer a guarantee of future value increases.
So cheaper housing bad ? 😂😂😂 ok
@@youarebeingtrolled6954 We live in an inflation reliant economy. Even though depreciation is awesome for a buyer, inflation is required to help repay debt. The money masters will counter with everything to continue inflation = higher prices.
When real estate price goes beyond the earning capability of the general public, this happens. This is the same all the world over, not only in China.
Another problem this video doesn't mention is store of value. A LOT of chinese dump their entire life savings into housing instead of the stock market like in the USA. This messes with what is "true demand" vs speculation and will make housing prices even more volatile
Rght, the real lack of investment in local markets does not help employment diversity, all your eggs in one basket when the bubble bursts is a GDP killer.
That's when you have a dictator 😂
China has been building houses/apartments that were too expensive for home buyers to pay for. The buyers counted on that there would be people who would pay even higher prices. This bubble grew bigger and was bound to burst sooner or later.
It's not because of the macro population trend - it's not like China's population has suddenly dropped - rather it's a combination of the state of the economy, balance sheets of developers, and the slow implosion of the giant price bubble built up over the last 30 years.
The macro population trend will have some effect here because investors are coming to grip with the fact that there is no longer an expectation that there will be a continually growing source of organic housing demand, but in fact a decades long, maybe even century long decrease.
@@TheMo8ius china is still relatively under-urbanised, there should still be some organic demand in the medium term
Everything matters in economics, so indeed the depopulation could cause over speculation when people are making loads o $ in the bubble.
Everyone who wants to migrate to Cities, already have.
to me it feels like it has reached saturation in a very abrupt pace, i feel that the boom before this was way unnatural, and many developers jumped on the bandwagon, only to lose in this game of musical chair, which was bound to happen.
The thing is that everyone knew this was unsustainable ever since ghost cities started popping up unnaturally fast. In most of America ghost cities can be equated to a major manufacturer leaving town so everyone moves away slowly. These ghost cities were just built dumped and never lived in so it never used its value as a building.
Never buy, just break in and live free. It's ghost city so no one will notice you're there. Just keep a look out. Lay low
Use a building for costly crop fruits medicine plants etc. It's a vertical farming.
Hard to make return of investment from that.
You assume they have the right plumbing for irrigation; the load bearing necessary to sustain thousands of tons of soil, and the willingness to pay for energy intensive lighting.
There is not an overall planning to look at the total demand and supply, and this is causing the housing problem.
One of the main problems is the developers were so greedy and irresponsible!!😮
Can't blame the developers only.. it's the greedy buyers who enabled the greedy developers. Go to other countries see what those same greedy speculators are doing to house prices elsewhere.
Many who truly need housing cannot afford them because greedy speculators hoarding them. Same ppl.
Until I see a tent city in China i wont worry too much
👍👍👍😃😃😃😃😃👏👏👏👏
But you by your own words haven’t been to China yet, so how will you know.
I would. By that point a región Is basically beyond saving
@@wynn3077 I live in China and have never seen an American style homeless tent city. So I am not too worried.
@@Mr.Patrick_Hung They aren’t made of tofu like some Chinese apartments 😂
They over-extended themselves. Instead of taking money for one project and using it in that project, they went on to spend the money on 5 new projects.
China is in a No-Win situation....sale of land funds the Provinces, Cities, Towns and Wards. Real estate forms a sizeable portion of GDP and hence employment. With real estate stagnating or even shrinking due to bankruptcies, the GDP must fall...a Red Line in itself. I cannot see a solution.
More than likely at some point they will shift to a property tax model to fund the local governments so they are funded based on the current base versus future growth.
China local government needs to get away from relying on property selling and transitioning towards a tax and service oriented model to fund the government operations. It is not going to be easy for sure.
@@MyMovie5858 Yes, but then the people may wonder why they actually have no real say in political matters when they have to pay for all of that. No taxation without representation.
Why is the youth unemployed if they said the productive work force is shrinking?
The economy is shrinking faster than the work force.
Low skilled work force is shrinking, but “high skilled” work force are growing fast.
There are 10 million 2-year and 4-year college graduates each year and many of them don't want jobs in manufacturing and service sector.
Shocking and shoddy builds with floors giving way with big holes to lower floors means every build cannot be safe for dwelling. No insurance companies will back them.
This system also caused the creation of ghost cities and abandoned and incomplete housing projects
in short sentence :
*Too much supply, not too much demand.*
As w/the 1 child policy the CCP *_did not_*
foresee the repercussions of requiring buyers to pay
the cost of a home in full & passing on that money to the builders.
At 4:28 you mistakenly used footage of Taipei, Taiwan when referring to Guangzhou, China. Why?
Makes me question your credibility and biases.
Shud watch out for extreme huge private housing development & use the strict rule to control overstretching of financial abilities of such companies.
Houses are built to be used to live, not to be used to play money games. But it seems that many people likes to do the opposite
the idea of buying something that is not yet created.
so it's the definition of "Trust Me Bro..." marketing
Well the government allow it so......
Now you know why they became rich.
Sounds like a ponzi scheme
It basically is
Mainland China has too much housing while HK has too little.
As usual Colliers is always optimistic .. I think the correction will be deep.. and may take years to stable .. separately Chinese have also ‘exported’ their pre sale practice to neighboring countries n these countries will also be facing a property correction due to the Chinese ‘demand’ that has now tapered off .. the ‘tap’ has just stopped on properly markets everywhere .. at least for the next few years ..
Aka AU UK USA CAN all getting corrected
@@youarebeingtrolled6954 AU = Australia? What Australia are you living in? Prices still going up.
population is falling, disposable income stagnant, youth unemployed 😮
what they mean by youth is 16-22 people of high school and college age.also lockdown has been lifted now , the number is going down
Export shrink
Wages reduce
Unemployment rate spike
Feels very Japan like honestly. I hope they find a way to come out of it
Protest 🪧 later
@@andia968 Is it? It seems to be a severe structural issue. Also, the figure only includes those not currently enrolled in high school and college.
He bankrupted tens of thousands but he still remain being a billionnaire. What a joke.
4:30 is Xin-Yi District, Taipei, Taiwan, not Guangzhou, China!
never buy presale house
Idiot buyers. No one should pay 100% unless the building is completed.
Supply and demand is only part of the problems … In a true market economy .. price correction would have happened a lot earlier … But really the system failed them … there should have never ever any rotten-tail project .. as in theory down payment + mortgage loan are going to the developers .. they would have plenty of money to finish the project .. but greedy developers used these money to buy more land and developed more projects .. full value from banks again when they’re pre-sold .. exactly like a ponzi scheme .. rules and regulations to finish the projects were ignored .. by corruptions all over the places including banks .. resulted buyers are paying mortgages without homes
In the US a contractor can only take 10% down when building a project for you and there is a schedule of work that has to be complete before the next payment is due. Missing a payment would cause a lien on the property by the contractor or missing a completion deadline would kick in a fine on the contractor each day the schedule is behind. Civil Law was invented by the market in western civilization which communism doesn't apply but rather is authoritarian.
chinese viewed housing as a store of money so many people were buying 2nd, 3rd or even 4th homes expecting to sell it later so developers kept building to meet that artificial demand, raising prices for first time homebuyers and creating a huge oversupply
Somehow finish the existing Housing and Reality Projects. Somehow China needs to see the transportation costs on terms of Market Prices for easy sales-on-Clearance of unsold Housing Units.
It will take many yrs to normalize or stabilize.
Let those scam developers finish those projects first before allowing them to borrow money or accept new projects or customers. Its sad knowing a lot of people there are continuously paying for unfinished houses while unable to move yet and some forced to stay to these hollow buildings without water or electricity.
The buyers borrowed money from the banks not the developers. They are obliged to pay for the bank's debt. The house was used as a collateral, but an unfinished house would be worth a lot less than it was collateralized for. The bank would request the borrower to fill the gap of lost value if the case goes into a default. In addition, there is no liquidation for individuals in China. In short, under China's financial rules, there's no escape from the money you borrow in the mortgage, never ever, even if it resulted in no house delivered.
@@serena-yuthat sounds like a third world mafia type economy! When will the people of China wake up?😢
The chairman needs to go
The emperor never will resign.
4:30 was filmed in Taipei. Not Guangzhou China.
Congratualtions on reaching the 100K level. Great video and whatever you did to block out wind noise worked very well. These industries have got to be running out of suckers.
Greed full stop and the herd driven itself to the cliff.
This was predicted about 5yrs ago with the proliferation of ghost cities.
Boom and bust cycles are just capitalism
Only one problem, the chinese housing market is not based on market principles. Its state controlled, demand for state products and state owned loans could go to 0 if you lose sight of the real market.
not to be nitpicky but the clip at 4:29 is Taiwan Xinyi district, not China. lol
The loss is shared equally by the buyer and the developer, however, if the developer rebuilds it, the cost will almost certainly grow while the developer stays unprofitable because the buyer's payment remains below the cost, and the buyer will face 100% of the loss.
it's crazy that china didnt even have a sort of red tag system that would force Everygrande to pay back lenders (at least) before they can access their funds. China is known for it's rigid social control but they really drop the ball on many micromanagement sectors of their economy.
The government needs to compare the economic and social (feeling of injustice) cost of bailing out developers vs the lower cost of clear laws and rules designed to prevent developer misuse of funds. Anticipate instead of react after the fact.
Why SCMP can't produce any updated inside story but lets their viewers savor outdated leftovers of other medias? We need to know the news, what are the current situations of the RE market and Evergranda in China, instead of repeating old stories.
It's over, bros. The bubble has burst.
Cool so now you can stop being obsessed with China right?😁
@@blokin5039 I hope you were able to buy a finished apartment. Are you one of the unlucky ones paying for an unfinished flat?
@@panoptijohn Nope I'm unlucky enough having to content with certain cultures in my own country harassing my wife while rarely getting out anymore because of rampant gun violence. How are you holding up?
I live in a country with virtually no gun crime. Not everyone who reviles the CCP is American.
@@blokin5039 Chinese wolf warriors constantly remind the world that China is an indispensable part of the global economy and destined to become the world's leading economy. Is it not right, therefore, to pay attention to it?
Hmmmm I like how you guys added clips of Taipei
China is so short of food...so why not start indoor farming under LED lights? Can use all the incomplete apartments or completed empty apartments. When demand increases, just move the racks back out.
Excellent and informative TH-cam video!
For those who were hoping this would be the end of China's rise
- Sorry to disappoint you
- Chinese leadership knows how to handle crisis such as this.
- Do you see any bank runs in China lately?
- Sorry to disappoint you
Do you see any bank runs in China lately?
- Chinese leadership knows how to handle crisis such as this.
@@ToiChutGongFluGood job, you won't be purged like Bo Xilai.
Yes, I have seen four Chinese bank runs lately. The police broke them up, and the poor depositors didn't get their money.
"The price of life is to high to give up. It's got to come down again." (Merle Haggard)
What's done is done so time for solutions everyone can live with. The people deserve to get what they paid for!
Land sales are not going to feed the local gov. much now. They will need to get creative.
The local governments are trying to raise finances by fining anything and everything they can, public servants income is linked to the amount of fines they generate for the population.
Praying this happens in America soon. We need lower housing prices.
The problem in the US is banking bailouts.
The video at 4:29 is in Taipei, Taiwan not Guangzhou, China lol
Not any different then USA market everyone is real estate investor and Airbnb host .
7:33 As Kay would say, "Why the swan have to be black?" 😂😂
It's not up to the scientific community to convince people the science is sound. Their job is science. It's up to people to get a friggin' clue and stop believing conspiracy theories.
Same story in India real estate market specially NCR
it could be mainly because china's yuan is tied to the state and is routinely devalued to avoided a natural occurrence when markets are trying to correct.
It will crash ... People's jobs are leaving , many of these homes are second or speculation homes so they are under the fire .. The crash will be amazing to see ...
30% of gdp hmm
Look at what happened to rome.
I have been looking for housing at crashed prices in 2nd tier cities like Fuzhou and Wenzhou but I haven't noticed any drop.
Most 1st and 2nd tier price are mostly flat but on other cities, it’s falling. Demand still high cause peoples migrate to bigger tier cities. Hence the high price.
@@lFurinl so this video is complete fake news. Initially I was glad that this may be a chance, but no
only disappointment.
@@ttemp2631 smaller cities yes
@@nzmanhdee6246 not interested in smaller cities
@@ttemp2631 "not interested in smaller cities"
That's why prices are still high in large cities. Those are the only places people want to live. Prices are falling in smaller cities because people don't want to live there as much. Eventually it will catch up to the big cities also. Give it a few more years.
As for all business it requires rules and regulations by the government to oversee fair development. You can see the results when lawlessness. Housing bubble!
over supply… sinking demand
The thing with cooking books is that eventually, like food, they become overcooked.
USA had it's own housing crash in 2009 to 2013, when a small house sold for 120,000 in 2005 was available for auction at 40,000 by 2013. A 1/3rd correction. Some damaged houses (Angry owners) were left empty for years and sold as low as 18,000. Govts subsidized the real-estate taxes, the banks lowered interest rates + temporary breaks with lower payment plans. The prices only recovered in 2021. Promoting houses as a get-rich scheme is bad idea.
That’s whack- how do Chinese banks even if approve mortgages on incomplete projects. Are the appraisals valued on concept? Besides the way property laws work there, you never own the land (only leased).
Yeap. But, downpayments are massive. At least 20%.
Lol, and any negative equity...the mortgage holder has to pay off for the rest of their lives.
Appraisals are valued on concept here too in the west. You think people don't pre sale new construction buildings or don't get loans to build new construction?
Besides you pay property tax and the concept of eminent domain is a thing. Do people really own the land outside of a paper saying they do that the government permits you to use with restrictions?
@@aaronp2542 not quite correct. they are valued at the phase of the construction and any smart lender won't lend more than 80% of LTV of that stage. For example, the builder would finance the build via construction loan. but a construction loan is appraised based on the land value which is significantly less value than a completed home. Only when the house is completed, does it qualify for an appraisal of traditional mortgage; so different risk and underwriting guidelines all together. In China- the lender/builder is essentially bypassing construction loan and using the entire mortgage (based on agreed value of the builder essentially) to finance the construction to completion; bypassing a lot of check and balance. The homeowner in China is also an idiot for assuming the full risk of the construction in progress. At least here in the US, if my builder doesn't complete the project, I can't qualify for the mortgage and therefore assume the risk of an incomplete project.
When the housing prices grow at 20% annually, banks really don't care much about appraisal.
China's prices have gone up, and that can be concerning. The cost of living in general can be pretty difficult to deal with.
Inflation at 0.7%😁😁😁😁😁
@@qake2021??
。。汽车应该是主要原因，因为中国电动汽车转型。。已经到了与油车相同的价格。。油车为了保住市占率疯狂降价。。现在中国的汽车价格平均下降了百分之十。
There is no point for these home owners in China to keep paying mortgages when they know that the chance of finishing construction on their home is 1% or less. I would stop paying and declare bankruptcy if I were them.
Don’t build when you don’t need it, seems simple
Dang I wish I can lose 90 percent of my net worth and still have 3 billion...
C economy is crashing down? Is that why they are meeting USA representatives Yellen recently in JULY 2023?
Many local govts sitting on huge debt due to their unethical practice in order to fulfill that made-believe annual GDP, yet many continued to borrow even more money to cover the original debt, and now, debt on top of debt on top of debt. The central govt can censor all the bad news they want, but numbers don't lie. Chinese govt is sitting on top of a vortex of debt, this debt crisis is not just going to go away.
Is not issue since China has huge foreign reserves, so its only domestic debt that they can forgive if they want to with no/little impact to their economy. This is similar to most Western countries.
@@cooper1819 China has huge foreign debts as well
@@Hkchinese888 In national economies, there will always be debts, but China has net savings. More assets than liabilities, so strong currency.
@@cooper1819 but chyna’s foreign debts nearly offset its reserves.
@@Hkchinese888 Nope China's debt is almost exclusively domestic and on top of that they are the largest international creditor. China has huge reserves.
Very costlier
Greed and corruption
China has too many houses while here in my inddia we d0nt even have t0ilets
This video has not aged well. These experts should really avoid prognosticating since once its on the internet, its there forever.
How much have they fallen though?
Looks like nothing
huge population is a boon and a bane, boon for rich and bane for middle class
Wait I thought everyone said China's economy was going under 3 months ago, why are they still standing!?
Well, many thought the US was supposed to be crashing 30yrs ago, so...
Long story short, real estate market was a bubble and it burst. All bubbles burst, its just a matter of time.
how could it go broke when people pay it in advance to build their houses? overvalue and Greed!
Same in India
Singapore PM visits Kenya to benchmark how corruption affects an economy
China and the Chinese people went through even much worse situations before in their history you know. From famine due to the failure of the Great Leap Forward to social turmoil as a result of the Cultural Revolution. China and Chinese people would rise up in the end, stronger and wiser. This property crisis is not even a major concern for the Chinese government, just a temporary setback
lol, it's over 30% of their economy and it's going to be completely wiped out soon. If you're going to push your nonsense propaganda, at least make it somewhat believable... Now that the entire civilized world is decoupling from China, it's all over. The CCP knows their fake economy will not last, that's why the CCP has turned China into a police state with no freedom. China is basically a larger North Korea. Soon they will be just as poor as them too.😆😂
So this isn't a crisis? Why is everybody so worried then?
Nothing has changed ; Chinese govt is still clueless and debt is increasing while unemployment is soaring .
You said. "This property crisis is not even a major concern for the Chinese government, just a temporary setback" You are generally correct. The Chinese government does NOT care about the Chinese people. It only cares about staying in power. As long as there aren't enough people rioting to overthrow the it, things are OK for the government.
@@jkardez4794I'm still waiting for the coming collapse of China as many experts hv been bragging on the internet. I'm just curious how many days u as the expert give china before it collapses completely to stone age!!?
China's property market probably tanked at the moment. Still, China's property market is still one of the best investment in the world. The irony...
Maybe they will finally stop stealing sand for the concrete from their neighbours.
The Chinese economy has never been built on nor defined by the very volatile real estate!