It's not that simple. Many regular people don't want to purchase because they believe prices will continue to drop. We saw this same kind of irrational behavior in America during the housing crash. People feel very uncomfortable living in a house that is worth less than they paid BUT if the house was worth $100K more than they paid they would not sell it anyway because it's their family home. They behave like speculators even though they are not. It's a bad situation that took America over 5 years to overcome and China's numbers look significantly worse.
Let me get this straight, she’s blaming the crisis on the governments decision to stop issuing loans that were actively contributing to the bubble? It was going to have to unwind at some point - the real issue is that the developers had too much easy money and not enough caution.
If the Government bailed out the bankrupt local government enterprises then actually the same principles should be extended for developers who develop Government LAND
Consistently describes the situation as getting better, but not being entirely fixed. Then saying nonsense things like "no improvement". Maybe China should go into $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days, like the U.S., and pretend it doesn't have any economic problems?
"Maybe China should go into $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days, " It already has. China has a gross national debt of over 130% GDP (i.e. General government debt + LGFVs). The US sits at 120%. And that doesn't account for the other debts the government is also partly liable for in China - Corporate debt adds another 141 per cent of GDP worth of liabilities, since a large chunk of which is owed by state-owned enterprises, compare that the the US's 77%. In addition, there is household debt - mostly those now overvalued mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. To again compare to the US, China is basically identical here, since US household debt accounts for 63% of GDP.
@@SK-lt1so But given the Snowden revelations, we know we can definitely trust the U.S. to tell us what is going on. Also, the U.S., by far, imprisons more of its citizens, on a per capita basis, than any other country, so calling China a "prison state" when the U.S. imprisons its own people for profit in its private prison system is both ignorant and laughable.
@@serebii666 Well, first off, you've said nothing to suggest that China is going into debt at the same rate as the U.S. China has plenty of corporate debt, that's true, but most of the world's largest banks are owned by the Chinese state and this gives it incredible leverage to deal with almost any financial issue. China doesn't have a problem with household debt; housing has been so overvalued for decades that, even when it drops, the vast majority of people are still ahead. Also, U.S. household debt is also something really to behold: the average American household has $10,000 in credit card debt, which they juggle around on an average of 5 different credit cards. 63% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck, whereas the average Chinese saves 40% of their wage. Those more specific GDP numbers are almost meaningless.
@@jasonjean2901 No, I compared apples to apples. State debts in the US are miniscule compared to China's local governments (State debts make up about 10% of GDP, compare to their Chinese counterparts 53% of GDP). China's doing much worse - since it has debt like a developed country, while still being a developing one, already with a decreasing population and worse inequality, not to mention the balooning maintenance obligation of the post 2008 strategy of overly developing unproductive infrastructure that is now beginning to age. "incredible leverage to deal with almost any financial issue." You mean by playing chicken with defaulting? lol I'd love to see that trainwreck unfold. China does have a great problem with household debt - 70 percent of Chinese household wealth is invested in real estate, more than double the U.S. figure, and they are therefore suffering great loses as they are burdened by expensive mortgages that don't even correspond to the housing units actual value. In short, they lost their savings, and you think that isn't a problem? lol. "63% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck" +900 million Chinese live off less than 2000 RMB a month. I wonder which is worse. "Chinese saves 40% of their wage." ...And? They have no where to invest it, and the government's intentional manipulation to weaken the yuan just means they lose purchasing power. They save their wage because they have a very dim outlook on the future of the Chinese economy. It's literally why deflation is such a terrible downward spiral. It's funny of you to claim most people being ahead, when this saving style literally underlines how people in China feel insecure. Your cope is hilarious, though. It gave me a great laugh.
It’s an okay investment when population was growing. Now that population is shrinking in most countries, it’s not as solid of an investment. There will be isolated regions where population is growing where it could still give some return
China is in its version of 2008, The German economy is deindustrialising and their government has collapsed, France is struggling economically aswell and their government is teetering on the brink of collapse, the UK economy is shrinking and entering recession territory and the Federal reserve are talking about only 2 rate cuts in 2025 as if 2.7% inflation rate equates to a booming economy
To be candid it works for the government but not for the speculators who are losing money!
It's not that simple. Many regular people don't want to purchase because they believe prices will continue to drop. We saw this same kind of irrational behavior in America during the housing crash. People feel very uncomfortable living in a house that is worth less than they paid BUT if the house was worth $100K more than they paid they would not sell it anyway because it's their family home. They behave like speculators even though they are not. It's a bad situation that took America over 5 years to overcome and China's numbers look significantly worse.
Property sales once made up >30% of "notional" GDP.
Candidly speaking, how is that working out for the government plan?
Let me get this straight, she’s blaming the crisis on the governments decision to stop issuing loans that were actively contributing to the bubble? It was going to have to unwind at some point - the real issue is that the developers had too much easy money and not enough caution.
If the Government bailed out the bankrupt local government enterprises then actually the same principles should be extended for developers who develop Government LAND
If not then Stop Issuing Permit. Because disrupting a supply chain means Canceling The Growth of Land Sales.
They should Refund the Developers and say: Sorry we were wrong. Here your money and DO SOMETHING ELSE
Why should we expect the same leadership who created the problem be able to figure out a real solution?
Episode starts at 3:00
Good analysis!
Interesting analysis, thank you.
Insightful thanks.
Consistently describes the situation as getting better, but not being entirely fixed. Then saying nonsense things like "no improvement". Maybe China should go into $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days, like the U.S., and pretend it doesn't have any economic problems?
If we only knew what is true in CCP prison state, your comment might be relevant.
"Maybe China should go into $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days, " It already has. China has a gross national debt of over 130% GDP (i.e. General government debt + LGFVs). The US sits at 120%. And that doesn't account for the other debts the government is also partly liable for in China - Corporate debt adds another 141 per cent of GDP worth of liabilities, since a large chunk of which is owed by state-owned enterprises, compare that the the US's 77%. In addition, there is household debt - mostly those now overvalued mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. To again compare to the US, China is basically identical here, since US household debt accounts for 63% of GDP.
@@SK-lt1so But given the Snowden revelations, we know we can definitely trust the U.S. to tell us what is going on. Also, the U.S., by far, imprisons more of its citizens, on a per capita basis, than any other country, so calling China a "prison state" when the U.S. imprisons its own people for profit in its private prison system is both ignorant and laughable.
@@serebii666 Well, first off, you've said nothing to suggest that China is going into debt at the same rate as the U.S. China has plenty of corporate debt, that's true, but most of the world's largest banks are owned by the Chinese state and this gives it incredible leverage to deal with almost any financial issue. China doesn't have a problem with household debt; housing has been so overvalued for decades that, even when it drops, the vast majority of people are still ahead. Also, U.S. household debt is also something really to behold: the average American household has $10,000 in credit card debt, which they juggle around on an average of 5 different credit cards. 63% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck, whereas the average Chinese saves 40% of their wage. Those more specific GDP numbers are almost meaningless.
@@jasonjean2901 No, I compared apples to apples. State debts in the US are miniscule compared to China's local governments (State debts make up about 10% of GDP, compare to their Chinese counterparts 53% of GDP). China's doing much worse - since it has debt like a developed country, while still being a developing one, already with a decreasing population and worse inequality, not to mention the balooning maintenance obligation of the post 2008 strategy of overly developing unproductive infrastructure that is now beginning to age.
"incredible leverage to deal with almost any financial issue." You mean by playing chicken with defaulting? lol I'd love to see that trainwreck unfold.
China does have a great problem with household debt - 70 percent of Chinese household wealth is invested in real estate, more than double the U.S. figure, and they are therefore suffering great loses as they are burdened by expensive mortgages that don't even correspond to the housing units actual value. In short, they lost their savings, and you think that isn't a problem? lol.
"63% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck" +900 million Chinese live off less than 2000 RMB a month. I wonder which is worse.
"Chinese saves 40% of their wage." ...And? They have no where to invest it, and the government's intentional manipulation to weaken the yuan just means they lose purchasing power. They save their wage because they have a very dim outlook on the future of the Chinese economy. It's literally why deflation is such a terrible downward spiral. It's funny of you to claim most people being ahead, when this saving style literally underlines how people in China feel insecure.
Your cope is hilarious, though. It gave me a great laugh.
What is working over there? 😅
Maybe don’t buy houses as an investment
It’s an okay investment when population was growing. Now that population is shrinking in most countries, it’s not as solid of an investment. There will be isolated regions where population is growing where it could still give some return
China is in its version of 2008, The German economy is deindustrialising and their government has collapsed, France is struggling economically aswell and their government is teetering on the brink of collapse, the UK economy is shrinking and entering recession territory and the Federal reserve are talking about only 2 rate cuts in 2025
as if 2.7% inflation rate equates to a booming economy