CGC Comic Book RARITY: Debunking the Myths
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ก.ค. 2022
- What makes one CGC comic book rare and another common? In this video we'll explore the concept of rarity and how it intersects with price. You'll learn about the differences in CGC census numbers among the most valuable books from the golden, silver, bronze, copper, and modern ages.
----IN THIS VIDEO---
0:34 The Basics of Comic Book Rarity
5:17 Rarity of Golden Age Comic Books
6:47 Rarity of Silver Age Comic Books
7:36 Rarity of Bronze Age Comic Books
9:05 Rarity of Copper Age Comic Books
10:41 Variants and Their Relationship to Rarity
11:29 Rarity of Modern Age Comic Books
---ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS----
Most images of comic books come from Heritage Auctions (HA.com)
A few images came from E-Bay (clearly marked except Ultimate Spider-Man 1, Version 3, City Variant).
Census Numbers from CGC Census
Print Run Estimates
*Action Comics 1: www.qualitycomix.com/comic-pr...
*Amazing Fantasy 15, Hulk 181: CGC Boards
*All Others, RecalledComics.com
Thanks for stopping by my friends! -Keston - บันเทิง
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I just gave you your 201st like, so you got what you asked for. Informative video.
Thank you Cold War Comics. The likes are no longer rare! Appreciate the support from everyone!
One thing I would be very curious about are the ghost comics. These are the ones where the same book was sent into CGC multiple times. It would interesting to learn how much of the census is real.
Good point CCG. Yeah, hard to know if 2% of the af 15 census pop are dupes or 50%!
PSA just moved to A.I. grading that takes a "fingerprint" to handle this exact issue.
@@GLDn1 Thanks man. I'll need to learn more about that. Seems like the logical next step in collectibles certification!
Glad you mentioned this. I know of a few books that were cracked open and then sent in again to be slabbed. So those books have been submitted twice. One of the examples are a book that is very rare whereby a 7.0 copy is the highest graded copy, and only one copy was graded as such until being reslabbed. Now there are two. But it is the same book.
This is the type of video that changes the future of your channel. Well done
Hi stickygoose. You made my day. Thanks for the encouraging comment.
This whay I do for my hobby discovering and finding these rarities. it's so much fun. I'm digging this series of yours.
Yes it is. It's hard to beat the golden age thrill of the hunt.
Great video. I began collecting in the early bronze age as a child. I've collected off and on over the last 50 years. I feel the current variant craze is the scourge of comic collect--beating out my previous hated gimmick of the Marvel Value Stamp.
Haha. Thanks PBales. I think we are kindred spirits. Yeah, I am no fan of gimmicks!
This video was really informative and enjoyable to see. Thanks for all the homework you did because I can tell this took some time to crack all these numbers. Just subbed and looking forward to your other videos. The collecting world is awesome and there is always something new to learn.
Thanks Jeremy. Appreciate all the kind words!
Very interesting vid. There are so many factors to take into account including sell-through, paper quality, works events (such as paper drives) that affect rarity but you did a great job explaining through the info available. Well done.👍
Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, definitely agree. It's the late '30s and '40s books that are so tough. They have had to survive generations of obstacles. 1 in 1,000 or even 1 in10,000 survival rates for some of these books.
I just finished and this is an awesome video. You've made the subject crystal clear. Have you done a video on rarity vs. scarcity?
Thanks brother. I have mentioned rarity vs scarcity but haven't taken a deep dive. In general, I think of golden age as rare and silver age as scarce. How do you differentiate these terms nighttiger?
The fact that DeatMate has survived and had a overwhelming print amount makes me exhale loudly outta my nose
haha!
Being "Rare" means little as do "Print Runs" it's all about "Supply and Demand" as you mentioned. There's a lot of manufactured scarcity, we're even seeing 1/1's with Indie publishers who want to create the one-of-a-kind collectible. In the comic book hobby, I'd probably opt venturing into the Original Published Art sector where not only is it 1/1 (one of a kind) but is original illustrations as opposed to manufactured printings.
Hi Rick. Thanks for the great comment. Yeah, that's why I stay away from modern "rare" books. The manufactured rarity leaves a bad taste in my mouth. I feel like I'm being manipulate. Ooooh. I do love original art...but my goodness it is expensive for a recognizable piece!
Great video Keston. Suspense 3 is a truly rare book with heavy demand. I can always count on a Keston video to always include a Suspense 3 sighting :) With some books, I estimate the approximate number of raw copies of key books is 2x what the CGC census numbers show. The census has doubled up on numbers if a book has been cracked out, label discarded, and re-subbed. The Gerber was all we had back in the the 1990s. It and the Overstreet were reasonable census sources for that time. Compared with CGC census numbers on key books, some Gerber scarcity ratings seem to be accurate - while other books are not as accurate.
Thanks Ben. Gotta represent Suspense 3...haha. I appreciate your insight. Would love to pick your big brain on the topic. Super thorny issues abound. there are so many caveats with respect to a census number. For example, AF15 has about 3,500 books on the census, whereas the median for Top 50 silver books is 1,200ish. Is AF15 actually more prevalent than the average top 50 silver age book in reality? Maybe, but not triple. The demand is so high for AF15 and, as you said, the resubbed books without labels would certainly be in play. I digress. Regardless, there is a strong signal through the noise. The big GA books are orders of magnitude rarer than books from all other ages. And, most of the time they are rarer than highly contrived 1/100 variants of modern books :-)
Great video. You only have to go to a major comic con and you’ll see tons of Hulk 181s - and you’ll realize it is not rare.
Yep. You are exactly right. You'll see some dealers with a dozen copies of the book! BTW: love your channel name!
Hi Keston, the first video of yours I've watched, very impressed by the depth of your research; also, your presentation makes it comprehensible for even people like me who failed High School Maths (final mark: 49%). Those are very revealing percentages regarding variants too (though I must admit to having bought a few recent ones myself due to the stunning cover art). And I'm now a subscriber to your channel.
Thanks for the kind words Charlie! I've always found math more digestible when it's visible. And, Gotta admit some of that variant art is sweet. Hope to see you again, my friend.
Great information, well explained. Supply and demand drive any market. It’s easy to see here once you understand the hobby.
Thank you Jim! Yes, definitely.
Another barrier: Many people collect comics to enjoy them, and not to have slabs of plastic lying around the house.
Hi J. Right on. I've met a few who hate to "entomb" their books. Thanks for stopping by the channel.
Great video Keston 🤙🏽 before this video I had my own theory…. If it any day of the week anytime of the year I can type up the book on eBay and find copies it ain’t rare 🤷🏿♂️
HI Jacob. Preach on. That's a great rule of thumb!
Great video and helpful information for collectors.
Thanks James. I hadn't seen one of your videos in a while, and your message prompted me to head on over to your channel. I appreciate the variety. And, I believe I saw GobbledyGook in your showcase. WOW. That's a crazy tough book. Keep up the good work with your channel. Let me know if you'd like to do a collab video in the fall. September is a good time for me. -Keston
MOARRRRR!!!! Great one Kes!
Robotz - thanks for coming back. Appreciate the kind words!
first video of yours I have watched. Subscribed. Awesome video
Thanks Joe! By the way, there is a Fauquier County not too far away from me :-)
Thanks for the Video!
Thanks for the kind words Thomas!
Thanks for the in depth info
Glad it was helpful!
This was such an interesting video. Thank you so much for this. Just subbed you up.
Thanks Mars Comics. Appreciate the kind words and the sub :-)
Great quality. Great info. Subscriber from 1 post view
Thanks so much Christian. The “high-production” videos take a little longer to produce so glad to get the positive feedback.
The data only represents CGC graded comics and is not taking into account the comics graded by CBCS or PGX. Now for action comics #1, I know of only one comic graded by CBCS. However for Amazing Fantasy 15, there are 3635 graded by CGC and several hundred more graded by CBCS. Conservatively, the AF +15 total graded census would be over 4000.
Hi Lars, I appreciate the comment. Yeah, CGC gives a good sense of "relative rarity" for highly valuable books and a very loose sense of absolute rarity. As you mention, other grading services have graded books. Plus, some books have been subbed more than once (without disclosing). And, there are many books in the wild for even highly valuable books. A major golden age dealer suggested that for every Action 1 graded, there are two that haven't been submitted. I find this hard to believe but this is a person who knows the hobby more intimately than I do.
Good informative video you got a new subscriber
Much appreciated Mikey!
This was a great post and no Hulk 181 is not a rare book!!! So many out there that there’s too many supply that over laps the demand which leaves them in limbo in phase in prices. I’ve had too many and sold them off to ever want another one. But give me a rare golden age then my spidy sense tingles 🤙
Amen! Most of my beloved childhood books fall in this category. Golden-age spider-sense would have served young Parker well!
Lol 💯
Some things are low print but also really low demand, which is ok with me because low demand does not equal bad, but can equal affordable, which is always great
Hi Zuffin. I love that. Yep, there are a lot of books that are rare but low demand...and, as you said, affordable. I'm partial to many of these books too. Thanks for the comment and hope to see you back again.
Do those variant figures include Mark Jewelers books as variants, I wonder? I seem to remember CGC classing Mark Jewelers books as "Inserts" not "Variants"
Hi Asher. Good question. You are correct. CGC does NOT consider the books with the Mark Jewelers insert as a variant. It does, however, note that the insert in the label notes.
Action comic and detective comic rarity is due to WW2, it was the paper recycling to the war effort that brought those print run down.
Yep. You are exactly right. I created a video on that topic and others not too long ago! th-cam.com/video/b2L_xzECacs/w-d-xo.html
*_Many books before the 1960's were often printed in millions of copies, which seems so insane? Where did they all go?_*
*_A book like X-Men 1 and it's 4-5 variants, the one by Jim Lee, is in my opinion is only worth case cost+$10 in a CGC 9.8._*
*_X-Men 1 was printed in 8,172,000 copies only 30 years ago, retailers reported back and Marvel executives confirmed 3,5M were sold back then, the other 5M has been sold since, are still in comic book shops or became landfill._*
*_However, the Newsstand versions of this book(only 4 different covers) had a low print run of 172,000 with the "Storm cover" being the smallest print run(unknown size)._*
*_There exists no CGC 9.9 or 10 of this book-I have tried over 100 times to get this._*
Hi RPR. Yeah, my understanding was that it wasn't until about 1965 when comic collecting became a hobby. Up until that point, it was the exception rather than the rule to hold onto a book. Regarding your last point. Yeah, in the 9.9 to 10 range, it's rare to find even "common books." thanks for the comment!
1rst Deadpool is highly volatile. Right now it's locked up in collections but swing the economy and those books will flood back out.
Thanks gld6000. Agreed. Tons of volatility. I get nervous about books that are so prevalent but people do love Deadpool!
The only time I've ever cared about a Variant was if it was by Michael Turner or once or twice by Greg Capullo but I refuse to spend above cover price for them
Hi Joshua. Yeah, I agree some of the variant art is sweet. Thanks for stopping by the channel!
One variant I own is Special Marvel Edition #15 with the Mark Jewelers insert. I won a CGC 8.0 last year just after I lost an eBay auction for a regular 8.0 copy but for $30 less. Would you know the census counts for SME-15's with the insert or for the inserts in general? Thanks.
HI rocketfighter 8. Good to hear from you. My understanding is that CGC does not differentiate the Mark Jewelers insert from other books in the census. You may find this series of posts interesting: boards.cgccomics.com/topic/478638-mark-jewelers-inserts/page/3/
People are now pulling graded comics out of the slabs and pressing the hell out of them for a resend. What’s your take on pressing and is a .5 or 1 really worth all the effort in the end? Thanks.
Hi Jordan. So true. Tons of pressing and re-subs. From a financial angle, it often makes sense, especially for valuable books. For example, silver and golden age keys in a 9.0 are roughly double the price of the same books at 8.0s. Pressing isn't risk free, however. Any time you handle books, especially fragile ones, there's a chance that the book can be damaged. CCS acknowledges this and the risk is on the submitter!
💯
Also we should take into account cbcs and pgx graded copies.
Good point WG and thanks for the comment. There are certainly a ton of caveats with CGC numbers: other grading companies, "ghost books", etc. Perhaps that's another video.
I’m very curious on the value of old viz. comic books Pokemon and Dragonball Z specifically they have a extremely low population on the census which is shocking to me. Very curious what your thoughts are on it
Hi Zack. Great to hear from you. I don't know much about those books. I'd recommend viewing completed sales on ebay.. That'll give you a good estimate of what they are going for. I made a video on comic book pricing if you'd like to learn more: th-cam.com/video/fEm5q1FTPxg/w-d-xo.html
Keston would buying a restored golden age book like Batman 1 to Superman 1 be a good buy or would a .5 Batman 1 or Superman 1 .5 blue grade be a better buy?
Great question. Those books are epic in any grade, in any label. That said, for me, it's in the .5 to 1.0 blue range that I think purple books become attractive. Blue books in the basement grades can be so aesthetically unappealing that a purple book is fine by me. That said, from an investment perspective it gets tricky. I made a video on pricing purple label books a while back that may be of interest to you. th-cam.com/video/xD0mu3F0spM/w-d-xo.html. Good luck on the hunt KryptoniteRocks! If you pick up a copy of a supe 1 or batman 1, let me know.
Hmmm...good question. That does seem to be a toss up. In this case, go with the one that gives you more joy to look at :-)
Thanks as always love your posts and channel old school is the best one 👌
Bro great channel just found it.. are you brothers with the guy from donut media? James pumphrey?
Thanks Alfonso. Never met the dude, but looked him up and like the comparison!
Spider-Man 300 original print run was about 600,000 copies. Today about 500,000 exist and most of them are in high grade. New Mutants 92 that is probably about 350,000 in existence today. And most of those are in high grade as well
Hi Christopher. Interesting information. I agree that most are likely in high grade. Where'd you get the print run info. Thanks for stopping by the channel and commenting.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 about once a year circulation information is released at the back of a comic book. These are the hard numbers that are regarding subscriptions, promotions, retail sales giveaways and damaged. However lately I question the accuracy of these numbers I find the information conflicting and highly irregular but this is all we have to go on. I like to rely on Old good old-fashioned speculation as well.
@@christophertomasello1227 Haha. Thanks Chris. Appreciate it.
No shade I honestly thouht this was a John Hancock video from the thumbnail
Hi Antonio. No disrespect taken :-). Never heard of the dude until you mentioned him. I can see the similarity! Also, his channel is cool. Thanks for introducing me to it.
Should i trade a hulk 181 9.0 for an ASM 1 in a 2.0?
Thoughts ?
Shew....good question. I haven't looked at the prices of these two books in a bit, but it seems like a pretty even deal money wise from what I can remember. I love both books. It comes down to what brings you the most joy. A low grade major silver-age key or the most popular book of the bronze age in great condition! A toss up for me.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 I know, right! I love them both but i kind of want to go with whatever might be the better long term hold and ASM 1 is far more rare. A 1.8 or 2.0 of ASM 1 is about the same as a 9.0 hulk right now
Hi Gavroche. It's anybody's guess what the better investment might be. Blue chips both...and, hulk 181 is one of only a handful of books that I would consider to be a post 1960s blue chip.
Can you please tell us which website gives the best and free printrun info. THANK YOU
It's tough, not easily accessible for many books. Here are a couple resources. www.comichron.com/ is a source many folks references. Gives print funs for most books over the last 20 years. Blogpost: regiecollects.com/f/the-messy-business-of-print-run-data-1
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 THANKS
The problem with CGCs census is the Crack Press Resubmit (CPR) industry that has grown up around thier lax grading and non pressing early on.
These books are cracked, pressed, graded and then get A NEW entry on the registry.
The old registry is not removed as CGC doesn't know that next raw book thier grading has been through thier hands before. The registry can never be correct because of this.
HI Stephen. You are right. I have heard a rumor that CGC (and other 3rd party grading services) may turn to artificial intelligence to uniquely identify books. But, until then, it's hard to know how many books have been counted multiple times.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 . Another concern of mine is 9.6s in 9.8 holders.
There's nothing to stop someone from cracking a 9.8 and replacing it with a 9.6 in a new holder with the 9.8 registry and new 9.8 banner.
Then the 9.8 is resubmitted for a new 9.8 registry and banner. Repeat and rinse.
I know. A bit paranoid. But thier lax security can allow this to happen. High priced, high registry books are a concern if someone can get holders. CGC supply a new registry and banner for a crook on each submit of the same 9.8 book. And they wouldn't know.
Being an old time collector I've taken a keen interest in this new market.
@@stephennewberry9815 Hi Stephen. I think it's pretty hard to switch books in a slab. They crack pretty easily if they've been tampered with. But, I'm sure people are trying to figure out a way to do it.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 . Not bothered about the cracking of slabs. More bothered that the slabs could easily be replicated. It's only acrylic.
9.6 book or high grade raw that looks 9.8 behind plastic
Banner from a genuine 9.8 book
Fake holder
Re submit the 9.8 for a new banner and registry number
Buy another high grade raw 9.8 looking book
Rinse and repeat
All you need is a way to replicate a fake slab, and all it is is plastic.
Hot damn comic fam! So many collectors don't recognise the collector scam.
Hi danzigvssartre. Haha. Well, I wouldn't go so far as a scam but the variant game is certainly gimmicky! Thanks for stopping by the channel.
What’s your thoughts on Adventure Comics 40 ?
One of my favorite books and a good value. Tough book to find.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 thanks for the reply 👍 what do you think an unrestored 5.0 would go for ?
Golden age is rare what would you call silver age books?
Hi VRF. Good question. I typically call silver-age scarce, at least relative to later-aged books.
Just because something is 'rare' doesn't automatically make it valuable. What the real formula is more people wanting something than copys on the market at the time.
Take ebay on newer books, something becomes hot & sells for a lot. Come back a few weeks later & the market is flooded, everyone saw that high price and put there own copy up for sale.
Hi Nathan. Thanks for the comment. Yeah, exactly. And the supply vs demand can be fickle for high volume books especially. A little bit of easing on the demand side and the price can go way down. That said, a book like Hulk 181 has so much demand that it's been relatively bullet proof over the last few decades despite the relatively large quantity of books that exist today!
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 oh yeah, would love that book myself.
Pre Code Horror is rare/scarce cause most were thrown into a bomb fire by angry parents. Silver age Marvel comics aren't rare in general but are rare in high grade
Hi Kevin. Exactly! I touched on those topics in another video: th-cam.com/video/b2L_xzECacs/w-d-xo.html
Hulk #181 is NOT rare. I read somewhere that over 220,000 were printed. Still trying to validate that. Only reason it seems to be in very high demand is that you have a relatively small group of turds buying multiple copies (10-20 sometimes) in what they believe is a smart bit of investing. I bought my copies of IH 180, 181, 182 in 1974 at age 13 for a whopping total of 75 cents. I must be the greatest investor since Warren Buffett.
Haha. Congrats on a wise investment in your youth Buffet junior. Yeah, that print run sounds about right. I've heard some speculate that 50k or 75k still exist. Regardless, demand is so high for that book that it's still a good investment in my opinion.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 Good "investment" only as long as people are willing to drop $15 on the increasingly woke Marvel movies that Disney is pouring out these days. I love the MCU or rather the first 20 movies or so, but they're starting to get increasingly shitty. Diversity doesn't make for a great movie, excellence makes for a great movie. Ethnicity is irrelevant.
Little secret everybody would love Spiderman amazing fantasy 15 right well most of those people are dead they collect it and the young people cannot afford it so the next rise is You got it secret wars number eight stack up and copies because in 10 years the average price should be around 5 to 10 grand
Interesting take. My opinion is that there are too many copies of secret wars 8 for it to ever be a mega grail. I think young people will still value Af14 more…and in 20 years from now they will have the means to buy it…we’ll see. Thanks again for commenting my friend.
I think variants are cool, but it is kinda getting out of hand. Every book having at 1:10, 1:25, 1:50, 1:100, 1:250, 1:1000, 1:Store, SDCC variant, ECC variant, B&W variant, 2nd Print Run, Peach Momoko, and "horny teen boy" variant is pretty exhausting.
Hi Natalie. Exactly. Cool but exhausting. Thanks for stopping by!
Rare comics are low print runs.alot of key comics are being reprint by scammer.making the # higher than what was out there before.
Thanks Chris for commenting. Yeah, you’ve got to be careful with the raw books. Certainly some scammers out there. I think cgc and cbcs have good quality control and catch most forgeries.
No need to rag on the funny comics from the Golden Age, you know just because there isn't a high demand for them because people would rather buy some dumb realistic superhero book that doesn't mean they're bad, the drawings inside are a lot better and sleeker than stuff you'll find today, and that to me makes them valuable. Those comics were drawn by great artists who made the actual animated cartoons back then too. You know, the term "comics" comes from them too, because they're actually comical
Hi Rye. I'm not sure what you mean by ragging on the funny books, just making the observation that many aren't worth much money despite their rarity. Never said they were bad. I'm actually a big fan, especially of Carl Barks. Cheers.
Rare doesn't mean expensive
it can be rare all it wants, if no one wants it, its gonna be trash
Completely agree.
Also now, sellers want to call every comicbook a “key”. No matter how obscure the 1st appearance character or mundane the story. Any excuse to charge $10 for a dollar bin book. The movies aren’t helping collectors one bit.
I hear ya…if everything is a key then nothing is a key. In my mind there may be 100 keys or so…not 1000+
Scarcity=rare. EC comics are rare. FF #1 hulk #1 are really not rare however, people want those silver age books more than not. At least that is what I believe.
Hi James. Definitely. The EC books are pretty tough. The demand for the silver-age keys is always super high. The 2,000 copies of hulk 1 are far short of demand.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 the collectors have been conditioned to want those comics by mavrel and the comic book stores, starts when they step inside the store.
Value isn't a function of rarity. It's a function of supply/demand levels at any point in time.
I pooped a unique poop. It's still worth poop despite it's rarity.
Yeah, I think the video is consistent with that. I point out some golden age books that are rare but not worth much money b/c demand is low for them.
What would you say is the rarest X-Men comic book from 1963 to 1985?
Hi Christopher. Good question. I'm not aware of any super rare standard print x-men book. X-Men 1 has over 5,600 copies on CGC census -- which is NOT scarce relative to other silver age keys -- but likely rarer than most other books in the series if you account for raw copies too. Regarding variants, the UK price variants are likely rare. Perhaps somebody else in this thread knows more than I on the topic.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 thank you for your prompt response to reward you I think I'm going to give you a piece of information you might find interesting.. it's X-Men number 76 yep believe it or not do the research it's fascinating
@@christophertomasello1227 Cool man. I'll check it out!
Underground comics are rare, Marvel and DC are common.
Hi Roy. Thanks for the comment. I'll mention underground comics if/when I do another comprehensive video on rarity. BTW: Are there specific underground comics that you were thinking of that are particularly rare? Thanks.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 Of course it also comes down to how many people want them but most of the undergrounds had a print run of 5,000 to 10,000 and many were confiscated and destroyed according to the habits of that time period.
"CGC IS NOT GOD" Bring on the Under Dogs. ...
Hi Oliver Van. Wish I could. Cbcs doesn’t show their census yet….as far as I know.
th-cam.com/video/qH-ltgbzL_8/w-d-xo.html
I hate variants !
Yeah, I have a hard time with them too. Some cool art but they often seem like a gimmick to me.
CGC won’t grade Gobldy Gook cause a lot of them are scams?
Hi Dan. You got it. The original production run of 50 was cheap copying. Difficult/impossible for grading companies to distinguish between fakes and the real McCoy. My understanding is that the ones cgc will grade have strong evidence of providence.
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 I looked it up and on the top of the CGC graded labels it says “Authenticated by Kevin Eastman”!
@@kestonsoldschoolcomicbooks6842 Spelling police here. You meant provenance, not providence. Enjoyed the video, thanks.
@@danfoley2442 Thanks Dan.