Jonah Hill Breaks Down the Math Behind Baseball | MONEYBALL
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2025
- Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane's successful attempt to assemble a baseball team on a lean budget by employing computer-generated analysis to acquire new players.
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This is the thematic scene in the movie. I think it works so well because Johah Hill's character is actually talking about what it's like to be an outsider. He uses baseball players as a (statistical) analogy, but the universal truth he is speaking about is something his character and Billy are experiencing: Neither of them fit perfectly into their world. They feel like outsiders, and the people around them treat them as such. Their accomplishment isn't putting together a baseball team; their accomplishment is that they found validation for who they are as people, with the encouragement and belief each gives the other. That is a universal, human quality that we all desire: validation.
That's very nicely said!
A frumpy looking Jonah Hill plays it to perfection.
Nicely put! If i could write and explain as well as you, my English teacher would've been proud!
One of the best scenes from this movie. You can almost feel the wheels spinning in Billy’s head realizing he’ll be the first GM in history to implement this plan.
The way he doesn't have rhythm to toss or hold a baseball is a tale tell ... Hm😂
@@tacotom3492. He was good at practice. Playing he was nervous and horrible
Someone recommended the book to me 20+ years ago. It was career changing, and I didn't work in sports. I worked for a large aerospace company that was very conservative, much like Billy Beane's scouts. Even when you could show the value of designs was obsolete, use new metrics, eliminate defects, lower costs dramatically, and improve value, the old guard did their best to reject the new paradigm.
Like nasa and their contracts...
@@thomasnilsson2884 everywhere. Its everywhere where someone "knows" what makes things successful. Ego.
There’s an “American Scandal” pod about Morton-Thiokol you’ve probably already heard.
This is applicable even in this day and age. Then the "old guard" wonders why they lose market share.
@@thomasnilsson2884 that's why Tesla destroys NASA
I remember this season well. My aunt was a huge A's fan. She called my mom daily durning the streak. My mom would talk to her on the phone while they both watched the game.
I'd actually rather be a hug fan than a huge fan.
nice
The statistical analysis... *it's so beautiful*.
Easy Raymond
Too emotional. wOBACON is a common statistic
A man uses statistics and logic to win several baseball games. It's my favorite film.
RIP Velvet Thunder
It's a great film.
The thing is, using statistics and analytics never really brought the A's much success, (especially after their competition started doing it too).
Starting with the 2002 season portrayed in the film, they've made nine postseason appearances through 2024 and lost in the opening round/game in all of them.
"47...actually, 51. I don't know why I lied just then." is an amazing line. He is underselling his own value, in the same way the players he evaluates are undervalued. He's not a player, family of one, or of an owner, he's fat, etc. So he undervalues himself.
Great insight. We all catch ourselves doing to ourselves from time to time.
Literally me 😂 why do people/I just lie over the dumbest crap. Like not even for a good reason? Like to impress a girl or something just lie for lyings sake lol?
It's interesting he catches himself though because people unintentionally lie, it happens
Similar to the scene in hurt locker when he's asked how many devices he'd disarmed by a superior officer.
Humble in their abilities
2:28 idk what it was but recognizing all those players from my childhood made this my favorite baseball movie. They always made movies about the legends from the early 1900’s so seeing my era was special. That and The Mighty Rio Grande is a great theme.
Movie aside, it's really sad that Oakland lost their team. I'm not even an A's fan, but I feel for the fans.
As someone who lives in Las Vegas and is NOT a baseball fan at all... it shows that ALL sports is about profits and not winning or the fans. But at the same time, it's like the WNBA... if ALL the feminists who think the women should get paid the same as the men would just GO TO THE GAMES themselves, they would get the same pay, but they won't. It's the same for Oakland... Oakland didn't support their own team, so they lost them.
@@redpillmafia960 Shouldn't use absolutes because they are easy to refute. No, not all teams. While I'm not a fan, The Green Bay Packers are unique among professional sports teams because they are publicly owned. Unlike most teams, which are owned by individual owners or corporate entities, the Packers are owned by more than 360,000 shareholders.
This ownership structure was established in 1923 when the team was incorporated as a non-profit organization.
@@zedwpd Replying to a guy named 'redpillmafia' who is whining about feminists, not sure what you're expecting. I bet he thinks the Packers are a socialist organization.
@@zedwpdLOL, the Packers are NOT publicly owned. 😂
Pretty sure the fans never went, and when Fisher wanted to build a new stadium, Oakland fought him on it and Las Vegas made a really lucrative deal to him to build there.
They didn't need to show Pete staring at the printer but it's such a relatably cathartic moment that it's perfect
It's an important little injection of reality into the scene. Showing that there's plenty of slow boring moments in-between all the interesting discussions and drama.
Desk printers, the good old days. Nowadays we have to use an office shared printer so they can allocate costs by department. Efficient but not practical.
The score/music makes that scene so much better. I like this scene and the rincon trade scene.
For me, this movie is pure cinematic magic.
It's practically all talk.
But the movie doesn't have one scene where you're breathless with suspense and fascination or where you hang on the lips of the actors and watch spellbound to see what happens next. This movie is brimming with such moments.
Billy's first contact with Pete.
Explaining the strategy to the scouts.
Every single conversation between Billy and the unforgettable PSH. RIP!!!
And of course the conversation at the Red Sox game or Pete's subsequent metaphor for Billy's success.
This is pure cinematic art!
Statistics, analytics, and math aside what I love about this scene is that it can be seen as a metaphor for our lives as well. Most of us don’t make it for whatever reason but we all have value and eventhough we may look different or do things differently we have something to offer. Someone just needs to choose to see it. Such a great film! One of my all time favs!
Peter Brand says it'll take a run differential of 169 to make the playoffs with 99 wins. The '02 A's were +146 runs and won the division with a 103-59 record. No team in baseball, btw, were +169 last year.
You can overperform projections (run differential) if you have a ACE closer, and no blown saves. You win several games you shouldn't, or rather, don't lose several games that, statistically, you SHOULD.
The best thing about Moneyball is that it captured both the economics and the romance of baseball so perfectly
The part about people being overlooked for a bunch of bullshit reasons really gets me. Such value is wasted in society over perceived flaws.
Look for the video 'Malcolm Gladwell Explains Why Human Potential Is Being Squandered'. It is shocking in how many ways we overlook people's potential.
HUGE ERECT BODY PART! 9 INCHES FROM BASE TO TIP!
Aaron Finch at 4ra events makes everything brighter his sporting prowess is a beacon of reliability
This film represents the triumph of rational analysis over unconfirmed intuition.
I bet Chad Bradford wasn't happy finding out that he missed out on $2,763,000.
Middle relievers didn't make $3 mil back then. Nowhere close. Actually it looks like maybe 2-2.5 mil for an effective veteran middle reliever/setup so his point still stands
He eventually got paid when he hit free agency & signed with the Mets in 2006, and then got an even bigger payday with the Orioles in 2007
@@mrpink99I got a thrill when I first watched the movie and saw him pop up. He was great to watch as an Os fan. Such a dependable no nonsense reliever. Worth every penny.
My understanding of Moneyball:
- Those who have the luxury of indulging their preferences/biases/prejudices can and will.
- Those who do not have the luxury, will rely on objective data to make the best informed choices.
- When people are involved, rather than products, there is a human toll for decisions fuelled by preference/bias/prejudice...
- Especially when a person can be prevented from even being able to contribute objective data, due to being excluded based on preference/bias/prejudice.
- This is why, as I became too old for 21-year-olds, I rethought my decision to exclude single mothers from my dating pool.
Winning the IPL lottery on 4RBT with Finch backing 4ra is thrilling Makes every win special
I wonder how many still haven't seen this gem due to it "being about baseball"?
I'm not even a baseball fan but I love this movie.
This video reminds me of the old NFL Draft Guides. The author was Joel Buschbaum. I always figured he was probably a scout, maybe an ex-coach or player. Nope. Come to find out, the guy never played, wasn't an athlete, just a football nerd. He thought he knew everything about players from watching film, or at least enough to rank them. It was fun to look up successful NFL players in old draft guides. Sometimes it revealed total misjudgement of players.
Wow, I remember listening to sports radio in St. Louis back in the late 70's and early 80's. They would have this guy with a weird accent and kind of a mush mouth way of talking come on and give his evaluations of various college players. It was Joel Buschbaum. He seemed to have detailed commentary for any player active in college. This was decades before the internet, so he must have watched countless hours of film, and I imagine spent a lot of time on the phone talking to coaches.
@@alberttang6955 I think maybe he had a disability. Vague memory of him being in a wheelchair or something like that. When this video shows the biased player evals "non-athlete" "pushing 40", etc... That's Buschsbaum for you. He knew a lot. But there are limits. He used to use the terms "enigma' & "if the light ever comes on". We all know of the 1st round busts & Heisman Trophy winners who sucked. Then you have Kurt Warners, Tom Bradys, and free agents who end up all-pro.
the beautiful scene here is them working into the night. working hard trumps all
Baseball, like all sports, is a business thats broken down into science and statistics, but once its projected to the audience they see it as entertainment and many never grasp the true idea of what sports really is. It isnt just about scoring the touchdown or getting that homerun or scoring that goal, its about who is on the team to do it any how many of those you need to win and how many wins you need to make it. Its truly genius business statistics that many people can never get past the tv or the stands.
Unfortunately sport started moving away from that some time ago. It's about money... and only about money. Owners like to have the best teams to win as that means money. However, they will often forego trying to build the best team in favour of building the highest value players that they can market. Mbappe is not the best football player in the World, he's not even close. He won the World Cup but did very little in it... Macallister did more during Argentina's World Cup win but even at Liverpool he is not rated as a top class player. But Mbappe he has extreme marketing value through sponsorships, media rights and sales to millions of fans Worldwide. He is a brand... PSG never tried to build a team to win the Champions League... They bought a player they could make money from and built the team they could afford around him. They had to win enough for Mbappe to stay relevant but they never wanted to win at the sport, they wanted to win on the balance sheet... and that is the exact and only reason Real Madrid wanted him and why he is the most valuable player in the World.
@@PokerMuppet no
I think part of the problem is that these types of mathematical systems or models seem to make much of the richness in life, and much of our perception of it, appear irrelevant and in some cases merely a distraction, and what is relevant in life has the feel of a meaningless number or shape on a graph.
This film looking back was actually the beginning of my journey to watching and loving baseball. Its a sport that's easy to be romantic about
I used the same algorhithm drafting my little league team last year. I took into account the players height, weight, speed and hotness of his mom. We went 0-fer but had the best after game snacks of any team in the league.
Used the money ball strategy with my fantasy team last year. Got the most points in the league but lost in the playoffs unfortunately. The system works better than people think.
Best sports movie ever. Although it’s really an “Economics” movie if that exists.
add in "The Big Short" for an economics movie. 😊
Happens to be another of Michael Lewis's book. Add Margin Call as well as far as movies. How I caused the credit crunch is another interesting book. Flash Boys another Michael Lewis book.
@@OmarHernandez-nq2jo great info! I'm a reader, so I appreciate the leads.
"Actually, 51, I dont know why I lied just then." Quintessesential Jonah Hill.
Having an icon like Finch associated with 4ra makes every event feel premium and top notch
The thing I never understood about this movie is why the presentation being made here wasn't made to the whole of the scout team, so they understood what was going on.
the code and the system are their secret sauce. the scout team already hates billy and have no loyalty to him. they would be giving away their trade secrets
They knew that those old scouts will not be interested in this idea. This literally ended they careers in the club.
Peter Brand and Donnie from Wolf of Wall Street is perfect example of how Jonah Hill is versatile as an actor.
One of the best sports movies of all time.
4ra with Finch as ambassador is just next level always ensures the best vibe at events
The most amazing part of this whole movie is that Pete did all that on a 14" CRT. We've gotten so soft with our 36" ultra-wide UHD screens :D
How could you get anything done on a 36" screen? 51" here.
@@stargazer7644 Laptop to my right as a second monitor and a portrait mode 29" to my left for code work and scrolling :D
With Aaron Finch promoting 4rabet you just know they mean business his track record speaks volumes
Crazy how the runs formula works. Ran it on Elly De La Cruz this year and he had 3 more runs than projected. Who knew math could be fun running numbers like that 😂
Aaron Finch as an ambassador for 4rabet really raises the bar he brings that star quality to events
The music makes this scene.
Music “The Mighty Rio Grande” Artist: This Will Destroy You. 2007
Yes.. the ambiance is noticeable. Love it
Bro, did you hear? Aaron Finch is with 4RA now This is going to be epic!
Yes man, 4ra just got more exciting with Finch as ambassador He's the best in cricket
Finch joining 4ra makes me trust it more Feels like a safe platform now
Look for the video 'Malcolm Gladwell Explains Why Human Potential Is Being Squandered'. It is shocking in how many ways we overlook people's potential.
This system works best when you have Zito/Mulder/Hudson completely killing it
Exactly. The A's aren't winning anything with that collection of "talent" if they didn't have three of the best starting pitchers in baseball.
Then other teams copied the method and the players that used to be undervalued were now part of bidding wars and Oakland had a hard time putting a good team together consistently.
Similar to these undervalued players, people underestimate the value of mathematical people. People even make fun of them often. Hopefully people realize than every device, gadget, cell phone, smoothie maker, car, airplane and a million other things in your life whether a comes from the efforts of many mathematical people. Realize that when the profession of 'engineering' came about, people got to stop living in log cabins. Appreciate the geeks in your life. They make it comfortable.
I've observed the same with really good sales people, not valued by their firms.The only seem to notice the skill necessary to sell well, and repeat gigs, when they leave, or retire, and they try to replace. them.
Darn, I love log cabins!
It's interesting that they hype up Bradford so much and then he has practically no part in the movie.
He's a relief pitcher...how much did you expect him to have?
@mistermonologue2442 i don't think he even has a line in the movie?
@@98centshe's the one I believe who said he'll pray for Billy and his family, so he did have some dialogue.
@@kennethzimmermann7351 Not much for the hype is all I'm saying.
He had more screen time than the starting rotation, which was virtually nonexistent in the movie and played a much bigger role on that year’s success. Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Aaron Harang and Cory Lidle weren’t even mentioned in the movie.
Aaron Finch being part of 4rabet just shows they’re all about excellence in sports and beyond
This is what baseball is. This is what the Programs were all about. The lack of salary cap is what ruins baseball.
agree but the other thing needed is a salary floor. However, the big money teams Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, etc, like it the way it is, it is in their favor, they can make a massive amount of money more than other markets and they don't have to share it.
@@garymauk2963this would help even before a cap. Also local city governments need to have more guts and tell the owners they need to at least attempt to win or they lose rights to tax funded venues.
@@garymauk2963 You can remove the Red Sox from that list now. John Henry is a POS, cheap ass owner. We won't have another good team until he sells. He continues to buy other sports teams (Liverpool the latest large one) instead of investing in his existing teams.
Technically there is "revenue sharing" but many of the small market teams pocket it rather than use for upgrades and its not an amount large enough for big teams to miss.
Hard cap, hard floor, no loopholes.
@@garymauk2963 the league likes it too. They want NY, LA, and Boston in the world series, not KC or Colorado.
This is a good movie, but it is a bit more complicated than statistics, and for that reason I like the movie Trouble with the Curve with Clint Eastwood.
there quite a few teams that are in this exact situation, unable to compete with the big money teams
That was one fast af ink jet printer.
Sold!! I will likely be watching this movie tonight! 😂
1 playoff series win in the MoneyBall era.
MoneyBall works well in the regular season, when there's 162 games... the numbers will average out. but in the post season, teams need clutch players to deliver in big moments, and MoneyBall can't account for that.
@@TheRedStateBlue I believe Boston used it to win the world series a couple of years later. Its not completely unheard of to win in the regular season and ride that to a championship. Now the issue at hand for the A's is that unlike Boston they couldnt afford to spend on star players and still use the metrics properly.
@@CodySchiemann that's fair. but MoneyBall did get the A's in the postseason, just like it was supposed to. after that, the talent disparity was evident.
yeah, say "I didn't watch the movie" without saying "I didn't watch the movie" 🤣
@@TheRedStateBlue lulz Aaaaand THIS is why the movie is great. And the book.
The only downside to this scene is the Chad Bradford analysis. You don’t need an algorithm to tell you why he is worth is way higher than his evaluation. They could have used the another player that has hidden productivity that is overlooked. Bradford was a solid pitcher with solid numbers, but was overlooked because his throwing style. Everyone knew his potential, but that wasn’t worth the injury risk to the team.
Can’t believe this is the guy that traded for Deshaun Watson
Betting on IPL matches with 4ra is top-notch with Finch involved, feels professional
Finch at 4rabet also known as 4rabet events adds that touch of class his high achievements shine through
Somehow Jonah failed to mention juicing mediocre players to the gills to boost results.
Every IPL match feels more exciting on 4ra My brother was right, it's the best.
This video gives me dual energies. Do I harbor my energies in giving into the status quo and gaining a sliver of the profit I have trained to do, or do I make everyone win with my persona ethos? People above profit? I feel most people choose themselves. And I don't blame them. But how do we move forward? What are your thoughts, chat?
Is that Explosions in the Sky playing in the background?
Write that down… IYKYK.
If Um a professional sport owner… these are the type of people that you need to hire that will be worth your millions in salary. Tell them that they’re special and thank them for what they do. Have them mentor your newcomers and children.
Analytics to evaluate players is one thing. Analytics to control play on the field is another. Stolen bases are vital to producing runs. Hit and run moves runners along. Sacrifice bunts create scoring opportunities in late innings of one run ballgames. Swinging for the fences at every at bat creates strikeouts. Pulling pitchers after twice through the order loses lots of games because the relief pitcher doesn’t have a feel for how the hitters are hitting on that particular day and how best to get them out. Pitchers throwing 100% velocity every pitch just destroys arms. Money ball may be a great way to put together a team. Sabre metrics is a lousy way to actually play the game.
Why does Billy look at the offer of a handshake as if he's never seen such a thing before?
My best guess is because they'd already met and he was surprised by the formality all over again.
@@MarklovesAngels yeah but they hadn't met that day and he is new to the job, offering a handshake in that situation is pretty normal
Did Jonah hills character ever get the credit he deservers in real life? Part of being a manager is knowing how to get and use talent. So I respect the managers eye and willingness to apply the math. Is the story in the movie true as far as Jonah basically inventing analytics? and does the rest of the world now recognize that? Or in real life was it both or more people that were actually involved in the idea?
Peter Brandt is a fictionalized version of Theo Epstein who took the Red Sox to a World Series win.
Jonahs character in the movie is just a disciple of Bill James and the others who invented sabermetrics. His character is loosley based on a person who would go on to be GM of the Dodgers, work for the Padres and Mets, and strangly enough has been in the front office of the Cleveland Browns for about the last decade.
This killed baseball.
@2:37 is when Billy realizes this is real. ❤
how can you not be romantic about baseball?
If you read the book, you would know that the writer thought they revolutionized scouting and drafting. They had six first round for sandwich pics. That catcher with boobs, had a cup of coffee in the majors. There are people who say that the A’s drafted him too high and paid him too high of a siding bonus. He could’ve been picked a few rounds later and for half his signing . Three other picks didn’t make it.
i don't think brad pitt should be allowed to act with cups
Great movie, misleading clickbait title.
This movie should be a primer on how artificial intelligence is replacing the human workforce. Remove all the human factors.
It’s an interesting paradigm problem, ai is better for the consumer and gonna make things cheaper and better for companies, but ironically are the people that need jobs to be consumers and buyers of the products.
How are the consumers gonn make money to buy the better automated products AI makes and replaces them! ?!?
@@hoopslaa5235 Probably not true, but legend has it, that Henry Ford was showing a Union Boss around his plant, and pointed out a machine and "look at that machine, never sleeps, never gets ill, never takes a holiday." The Union Boss replied, "how many cars does it buy?".
Still technology has always worked for humanity, and the AI thing is being vastly overhyped, we're a way from HAL yet, a long way.
Completely not. The 'human' factors a were all bias'; just because this is a numbers movie doesn't mean it doesn't have humanity. In the raw numbers, the bs is removed and you can just see people for who they are. That means the numbers reveal who isn't being valued enough, which is a very human thing. AI replacing the workforce for no good reason is a thing and another story, but using stats isn't the same as abusing AI.
Actually, what AI is currently doing is repeating all the biases of those old farts -- companies which asked an AI to select new employees were equally racially discriminating as the managers who did the hiring before -- so an all-white company continued hiring all-white candidates, etc.
Does Brad Pitt have to wear track pants in every movie?
Billy's constant chewing drives me INSANE.
This is baseball of today, all matrix
How much he make for making this computer program
Do we care if he gets on base with a walk? We do not.
Solo Lisa Simpson y este amigo lo hicieron posible
baseball IS math.
Everything has math.
Just wondering, no one noticed the brilliant music in this movie.
Wonder if he could also break down how he resorted to psychological manipulation of his ex-girlfriend for a lengthy period of time.
GD math nerds ruined the game of baseball. Think about it……This is a game people pay to watch to be entertained……and the now “desired outcome” of an at bat, which was the outcome of the advanced statistical movement, is 3 instances where the ball does not enter the field of play, a walk, a strikeout and a home run. Thats predictable…..and predictable is BORING…..and people wonder why baseball is a dying sport….
If you can strike people out and make good decisions when that’s not possible I could give 2 shits what someone looks like while pitching
Even when Brad Pit does it, chew is disgusting
The Florida Marlins, of the same era, had a superior small market success system. Placing greater value on speed and defence and winning 2 World series championships.
Great scene, too bad I can't hear it.
Same here, watching IPL on 4ra is so much fun. The bonuses are awesome.
Is the movie called MONEYBALL because it reflects Jonah Hill’s shape as a ball?????
Let’s be a bit more honest here. They still didn’t win with Billy bean. They skipped out on a ton of other stuff in order to make a Hollywood movie. No hate or shame. We just gotta be honest
Go bills!!!!
4ra with Aaron Finch onboard means serious business his presence spells quality and trust
1:50 That's not code he wrote. Its a hex dump with some garbage thrown in for effect.
Haha
Common people doesn't understand that.
All they know, any black screen with random letter that moving, especially with a green color, are cool computer sh*ts codes or hacking activity.😅😊
Geez, I'm glad you caught that. Completely changes the theme of the movie.
sto film meraviglioso ha rovinato il Milan
Seeing Aaron Finch at 4rabet events is a total game changer feels more legit and exciting
Ruined baseball in process.
100%
Nice