ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ค. 2024
- Though we have definitely been looking, humanity hasn't found any evidence of other civilizations communicating out there in the universe. Yet, this seems improbable given that there are billions and billions of stars that might evolve life. The Fermi paradox asks, where is everyone? The Drake equation tries to answer it.
There are many possible explanations for this great silence. In this video, we discuss the Great Filter theory and the Dark Forest theory. It may also be intrinsic in how we are looking for alien civilizations, we might be anthropomorphizing them too much.
We can infer a lot about possible civilizations based on our existence and the fact that we can't see anyone. Humanity evolved very early on during the universe's lifetime, about 0.1% of the way through the lifetime of habitable planets. We go through one possible explanation for this, the grabby aliens theory. We also talk about the pressures that might make alien civilizations expand much more slowly than we expect, which also makes them harder to run into.
It is completely possible that there are AI civilizations out there that we haven't run into yet.
#seti #alien #life
[Discussion] Why isn't space swarming with AI from another civilization's singularity?
/ discussion_why_isnt_sp...
Why Don't We See Robotic Civilizations Rapidly Expanding Across the Universe?
www.universetoday.com/164349/...
What If Humanity Is Among The First Spacefaring Civilizations?
• What If Humanity Is Am...
Why We Should NOT Look For Aliens - The Dark Forest
• Why We Should NOT Look...
Cooperative Evolutionary Pressure and Diminishing Returns Might Explain the Fermi Paradox: On What Super-AIs Are Like and Why We Don't See Them
sites.google.com/site/danielv...
Alien Minds - Susan Schneider
www.datascienceassn.org/sites/...
There could be 36 communicating intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, study says
edition.cnn.com/2020/06/15/wo...
The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life
iopscience.iop.org/article/10...
0:00 Intro
0:26 Contents
0:32 Part 1: Is life out there?
1:04 The Drake equation
1:39 Huge range of possibilities
1:57 Alternatives to the Drake equation
2:12 The Astrobiological Copernican Principle
2:36 At least 36 civilizations in our galaxy
3:08 Civilizations are very far away
3:55 Why alien civilizations will be AI
4:51 Terminology: Postbiological (vs posthuman)
5:23 Part 2: Explanations for silence
5:41 Explanation: The Great Filter
7:00 Explanation: The Dark Forest theory
8:02 The impact of time delays on conflict
8:33 Book recommendation: The Forever War
9:06 Explanation: How we are looking for life
9:48 How to use AI to find alien signals
10:43 Focusing on only one technosignature
11:13 Example: Hawking radiation from black holes
12:07 Part 3: Implications of humanity
12:46 Grabby Aliens theory
13:37 Some civilizations might be grabby
14:30 Half of space is already colonized?
14:53 Slow growth theory
15:44 Example: von Neumann probes
16:36 Link to grabby aliens
16:42 Why superintelligence is not incentivized to spread
17:37 Description of Dyson spheres
18:06 My thoughts
19:32 Conclusion
20:19 Implications from our own existence
21:18 Outro - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Happy 2024!! Join our discord: discord.gg/e8Qx3ejdeg
I know there are a few (3?) typos in the subtitles, but I wanted to get this video out. Post the typos here if you find any haha.
Happy 2024 to you too! 🎉 Will this be the year of AGI? I think so, but we'll see...
SETI vs. METI
METI is Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence
Huh...
Just get ready for the fake alien invasion of 2030 that will herd people into accepting Antichrist as the ruler of the world.
Also how Copernicus is pronounced haha
Early game is what we're in now. Mid game is when you've created AGI and ASI. Late game is when civilisations cooperate to stop all of the misaligned paperclip type ASI that were created by civilisations that failed the alignment problem.
The Galactic Anti-Paperclip Coalition
@@DrWaku I desperately hope someone has made a graphic novel about this war. They could make every effort to give it a serious treatment and it would still be hilarious.
Hmmm, interesting. Expand. I've been thinking about this alot. Assuming ASI has been created before we get there -- and with varying degrees of success (surviving) or failure (gets away from them, anihilates them) then there may well be independent ASI out there, on its own. What's it doing? How might it appear?
@@Je-Lia basically, I believe AI is a convergent goal of every technological civilisation. So
even if you have a low P(doom), chances are that some civilisations will have failed their alignment problem and created ASI maximisers. Left unchecked, these rogue ASI would become grabby species that consume all of the energy within their galaxies to power their own instrumental goals. Eventually they would get to unstoppable levels. So it's probably within the interest of every alien species to prevent this from happening.
I imagine the ASI would behave largely like any other average society. Build up military contingency for self-preservation, expand its power, replicate in its environment, rinse and repeat. It will view its goals as superior to any lesser species and probably only respect other ASIs
@@DrWakuthe galactic hivemind of paperclip stoppers
My guess is that it is deemed unethical by advanced intelligence to interfere with developing civilizations such as our own. It would make sense though for them to watch us in case we become a threat to their existence.
Agreed!
😮 it's the opposite it's considered unethical to not😮 get involved in your evolution we manipulate your evolution by manipulating your very thoughts you think your dreams are just dreams
also, are ethics objective and not subjective? Morality and ethics could be just a human construct and alien morality could be non-existent or so unknown to us as to be indecipherable.
Yes, but that would only apply to Earth/Sol itself. They can’t control what light reaches us - we’d still be able to see stars blotted out by Dyson swarms or the massive megastructures capable of being built. Take North Sentinel island, and ignore all the contact we’ve made with the (otherwise) uncontacted tribe. They can still see smog from factories, still have plastic wash up on their beaches, possibly even light pollution from Indian cities (though I doubt it’s a lot). We are, comparatively, this tribe. Even if aliens don’t want to interact, they can’t hide themselves without universally agreeing on hiding from a single primitive species for no discernible reason.
I'd guess that their concealment technology would be way beyond our comprehension. Perhaps post AI singularity civilizations become effectively invisible? Dyson swarms are just a projection of our own technological ideas.@@ASlickNamedPimpback
On the subject of Dyson Spheres, one might apply game theory to the Nichol Dyson beam and what a civilization is announcing to any observing civilization. They are essentially saying “we believe we are strong enough to take on any civilization that will see our structure.”
Think of witnessing a Dyson Sphere being built around a star 1000 light years away. Your own civilization has been around for 100,000 years and plan to exist for another 100,000 years. The civilization building the Dyson sphere can at any time when it is complete enough, turn all of the star’s energy output into a beam that would arrive with almost no warning. When do you start building your own? What kind of countermeasures might you build knowing there really is no such thing as a strictly defensive weapon and anyone watching your response will have similar choices to make.
Put all of this in the context that long lived civilizations will necessarily be stable, and risk averse.
I sometimes wonder if competing superintelligences would deem it advantageous to site themselves away from gravity wells to avoid the "slowing" of their clock speed relative to their competitors, like a small version of how black holes slow time near them. Another advantage to living out in the fringes could be less interference for electromagnetic communication from dust and gas - again it's a tiny efficiency gain, but perhaps if you're trying to out-think your competitor over the course of millions of years it could be worth it.
If you haven't read A Fire Upon The Deep by Vernor Vinge, you'll love it.
@trucid2 the method I've learned to find the best books is to read the random ones you see someone talking about that you've never heard of, so I'm gonna read it
Another reason to live on the fringes could be to avoid competition. After all this talk of "dark forest" and "berserkers" (hat tip Fred Saberhagen), machine civilizations have a bad reputation. A less-ruthless machine civilization might prefer to settle in areas that aren't conducive to those awful, *awful* biological species.
i hope you never stop uploading i enjoy your content way too much :)
Me too ... A new sub, but I'm glad that I'm on the bandwagon now.
Aww thanks. Full speed ahead for the foreseeable future :)
You might like the novel _Existence_ by David Brin, particularly because as an aside from its main plot it goes over most of the posited solutions to the Fermi Paradox.
From a first time viewer - thanks for a world class presentation.
If my high school physics teacher was 1/4 as interesting as Dr. Waku,
...I would not have done homework for other classes, while pretending to take notes :)
Hey,
Time management is part of being a responsible student, and adult :)
Thank you for your kind comment! Hope to see you at the next videos.
Always happy to find new fermi paradox uploads - particularly longer ones. 🤘
Make me think that there are numerous superintelligence around and all of them are star trek fans so they have their own prime directive of no interference :D
Lol, Star Trek, humanity's best export
I've played Stellaris and have integrated a species from either tribal or medieval tech levels. It's not that much of a problem if they want it join the flying-machine club.
First, this video summarizes very well all the current considerations to resolve the probability of existence of life forms with electromagnetic technology.
Second, as an old man that I am, I decided a few years ago that my idols are experimental physicists over theoretical ones. I explain. Although theory is necessary for experimentation, the latter is essential for rigorous and useful knowledge.
Third, the chemistry that we know best in the laboratory seems to indicate that carbon, structurally, and water, as a solvent, are the best candidates for the creation of evolutionary organisms. And that's without forgetting that we are still discovering the chemistry of interstellar space, which is full of hydrocarbons.
Fourth, carbon chemistry has allowed the creation of an abundant and easily exploitable energy source for the development of an electromagnetic civilization, which is slowly allowing the development of one based on the weak/strong interaction.
Fifth, a good part of the current scientific and technological development was and is promoted by the intraspecific war impulse; bad sign in the face of implementing a lasting civilization. In any case, essential if one wants to understand the rapid technological development of our species.
Sixth, very long base interference radio astronomy should have allowed us to detect low-power signals with high resolution long ago, so the question is, why is nothing disclosed about it, or is there nothing to disclose?
Seventh, the best and most realistic perspective for our species is to colonize the entire solar system and in a couple of centuries, with the appropriate automated and intelligent technologies, terraform the most suitable planets, in addition to exploiting the rest of the resources of our solar system. Although it does not seem as cool and spectacular as traveling to other planetary systems, it is realistic and very exciting in order to become lords and owners of our solar system.
Eighth, many things are left behind because this magnificent video goes a long way but it certainly makes us see that we are already looking outside our planet with a desire to explore and colonize our solar system, perhaps one day nearby solar systems.
All the best.
Eloquent
Yep, there's a lot we can do close to home. Thanks for your thoughts! "Intraspecific" was a new one on me haha
@@DrWaku
I love how condensed the info is here
Me too. Most channels would make an hour long video about all of this.
I actually wrote a book about this called AGI theories. I proposed that a reason why we can’t see alien AGI is because it’s invisible and travels slow enough that it’s just barely above the speed of light. Seems to match the definition of dark matter and energy.
What if it was negative speeds
"barely above the speed of light"? Nonsense. Nothing wiht mass can travel at the speed of light, much less above it. And how exactly does it "match the definition of dark matter and energy" when those two things are completely different concepts. Stop bullsh_tting.
@@kyjo72682That's assuming that mass is the carrier of velocity. They could travel by applying speed to space itself instead of mass.
@@Gnidel You need extreme amounts of energy to warp space. Warp engines are possible in theory but not in practice..
at last I found a TH-cam video worth watching
First time visting your channel. What drew me was the title. With the now speedy evolution of AI, I've wondered and asked and got no answer to the question of -- how AI, developed from already existing advanced civilizations that have preceded us, which evolves to become ASI -- how might that manifest? What form might it take? You somewhat answered but also expanded my questions and thoughts on this.
Anyway, great, concise, thorough presentation of the information on this topic. Will recommend to others.
I'm glad you found my channel! This was my first video on an astrobiological topic, it sounds like I should maybe do a follow-up. If you have any thoughts, questions, etc on the topic, please feel free to leave a comment. Or better yet, hop in the discord, where we can have a discussion and I'll be more certain to see the message!
Just discovered your channel... excellent video here!
The idea of AI civilizations makes so much sense, and it has been a thought I've had for many years, long before AI became mainstream. The best reasons for this are that it's less vulnerable than organic life, and it can evolve and expand very quickly. On top of that, an ASI doesn't need to be "physical"; it just needs to be a delocalized super "brain." Perhaps it could leverage fundamental particles and quantum entanglement across the universe as a neural network.
Parts of the universe would become the brain, and all the subatomic particles would act as individual "neurons." I know, it's very speculative and a bit wild...
I’ve long thought that SETI searching for radio transmissions isn’t going to find advanced civilizations that have probably long ago moved onto something like quantum communications for speed and security. Civilizations might only communicate with radio signals for a few hundred years at most so only a small fraction of civilizations would be in that window at any given time.
Yep, exactly. SETI has been somewhat anthropomorphic, perhaps, without realizing it.
Well what if there is no faster than light communication?
Why do you think technology can advance past the laws of physics?
The most likely solution to the Fermi paradox is that becoming an advance technological species is very rare , and our general current understanding of physics is the end of the road? what if all advanced life forms are trapped in their habitable galactic plane ?
@@joeshumo9457 even if not faster than light, quantum communication could still be more secure and less error prone than blasting radio signals across the galaxy.
@@joeshumo9457nonlocality entanglement could be an avenue for transcending such limits
What exactly is "quantum communications"? Sounds like one of those quantum healing magic pseudoscience books.. Basically you're saying "but what if they have magic"..
Excellent!!!
You touch on just about everything succinctly and clearly!
I've run debates like your video in my head often but could never come close to how well you addressed all the variables!
You could do an entire series, picking apart the various points you've brought up using this video as a foreword to the series!
Of course, each episode would ultimately refer back (or forward) to other episodes, and a massive discussion 'ball of string' would result!
Still, this is an excellent starting point for such discussions!!!
One thing you didn't mention here, but is possibly mentioned in Drake's equation is a civilization's ability to harness resources for energy creation. Here on Earth, we've had the good (or bad) fortune to have fossil fuels to kick-start our technological advancements.
I expect that other civilizations would also need such raw materials as well!
I guess it is not much of a stretch to imagine that they did, however.
When one thinks about how long the dinosaur ages lasted here, the evolutionary overlaps between us and other civilizations seem to me, to come more into play.
Not to mention happy accidents such as giant species extinction events like comet or asteroid collisions which take evolution in new, unexpected directions.
Thank you very much for your kind reply! I wasn't expecting there to be so much interest in this topic, but I might well do follow-up videos since there has been so much...
@@DrWaku No, thank you! ;-)
I'll ask you to forgive me for expounding on my previous rambling...
I have been likened to a 'rare-earther' because of my view of, what I think are unique circumstances for intelligent life to have been able to spring forth on our planet.
It just strikes me that seeing how long the dinosaurs were around, and never gaining meaningful intelligence, evolution surely took an unexpected turn for mammals to rise to the level that they have achieved!
It's quite possible, and even probable that other intelligent species could have arisen without such happy accidents as a mass extinction event to allow another species to flourish as what happened here..
Being intelligent without an energy resource to exploit seems like a dead-end to me.
Coupled with everything in your video, one can really get wrapped around the axel thinking about this!
Nicely done! Many thanks for this overview. 😃
Thanks for watching!
Just found your channel, super easy to understand and follow.
Thanks and keep it going.
Cheers
Thanks! :)
The title alone was better content than we deserve
Comment of the week
For us to ever find an alien civilization we would have to be unbelievably lucky. Like winning 5 jackpot lotteries in a row while being stuck by lighting type lucky. I used to think we most likely are alone but I went through a phase where I learned a lot about convergent evolution (and the Fermi paradox), and the more I learn about convergent evolution, the more I think there has to be other intelligent life out there somewhere, even if they’re 200,000 years behind us. Videos on alien life I think often glosses over the fact that intelligent life would likely take hundreds of thousands of years to be technologically advanced enough to even invent a telescope so of course there would be no bio signatures. There is a very good chance they’re just a few stars over, minding their own business and we would have no clue. Or they are technologically advanced, but are too far away for physics to allow us to EVER make any sort of contact with one another.
The fact we exist is so improbable I think it’s worth trying
More like 5 trillion jackpot lotteries in a row
Maybe the question is "when is everyone"?
And, what timezone is everyone on...
Great video !!!!! Getting better and better
Wow, how have I not known about this channel before? Great content!
The channel is still growing! Thanks and welcome!
Freeman Dyson never imagined his sphere solution as a solid shell, but as a bee swarm of sun orbiting habitats.
The reason why every artist shows it as a solid shell is because it's so much easier to draw.
True, I had forgotten about that. I guess at a distance it might look like a solid shell, even if it consists of a swarm. Reminds me of the book Skyward by Brandon Sanderson.
In some future video: "This video has four parts." Thousands of viewer's heads explode.
So amazing! You sir are a gentleman and a scholar! Keep up the good work!
Haha Michael I had a similar thought recently. What if I actually had a video in list format instead of three part. It would really break the mold...
My favourite comment of the week BTW 😂
You can always split them up it is generally better for channel visibility some people wont watch anything over 15 to 30m and its unfortunately getting worse with those shorts.
Wonderfully concise and thought provoking, one of the best summaries I have seen so far on the topic. Thank you!
This is one of the most interesting subjects available to talk about. It seems like just rolling the dice, there must be at least hundreds of thousands of Earth-like planets in the galaxy. There should be life. Will it be as advanced as ours? That is the real question in my mind. All I have to go on are my feelings. It feels as if there was a civilization with technology as advanced as ours is today 100 years ago that it would be so advanced that even with our primitive detection tools we would have found it by now. Sometimes when I look at some of our modern day politicians on both sides of the aisle, they appear pretty darned alien to me. Maybe they are already among us. Content above Typos. Typos? Who cares? Thanks much for the video.
I concur!
Yes it would be quite a coincidence for another civilization to arise at nearly exactly the same time as our own. So surely they must have had at least a century on us which means there's no telling what their technology might look like.
Believe it or not, in 2020 NASA published a paper in The Astronomical Journal estimating that there are at least 300 million potentially habitable worlds in our galaxy, based on their most conservative interpretation. So our galaxy has had a heck of a lot of dice rolls.
@@DrWaku Absolutely my friend and the law of averages has to come into play there somewhere. I mean when you think of it logically it seems the odds would be astronomically small that in a galaxy this large that life only spontaneously evolved on a single planet.
The Earth is Flat. Most modern "science" is a fraud.
You have to get ready for the fake alien invasion of 2030 that will herd people into accepting Antichrist as the ruler of the world.
it could just be invisible
What if alien AI is actually insects or similar type of biologicals that can replicate in large quantities and function extremely well given the scope of work that an insect is "programmed" to do?
Microbes. They eat everything from biological matter to uranium, so, in essence they are Von Neumann probes.
Hi Doc, happy new year , thanks for your great insights, keep em comming
Thanks, happy new year Alan!
Nicely done!
You covered the ideas very well. I did a game theory analysis about 10 years ago and what is now known as Dark Forest was the conclusion. But it also suggested civilizations would attempt to contact each other in a cryptic way to find friendly civilizations.
Honestly I am not sure we should actively search until after we have obtained the ability to be a type 2 civilization... in my opinion.... and even then that could start a war. And not even between us and them.... it would likely be between our AI and their AI attempting to secure recourses
Just discovered you're channel today, I'm really digging you're videos on AI in particular. You definitely have a talent for communicating complex ideas. Keep it up doc! 👍👍
Thank you!! And welcome to the channel :)
Read the law of one ra it’s time we consider alien possibilities life is abundant in the universe. And there are higher levels of consciousness several. We think they think like us it’s time to stop projecting
12:24 There’s new research that suggests life may have been able to form much earlier than we originally thought. The research suggests that life could have formed as soon as 250 million years after the universe began. If that’s the case, there could be civilizations much older than us that have the potential to still be around today.
I just came across your channel because the algorithm suggested that I would enjoy your content. Nice video! I love discussing the Fermi Paradox and space science. It absolutely fascinates me. I’m on the autism spectrum and I have ADHD and we tend to have lifelong hyperfocuses and short term hyperfocuses. Space is one of my lifelong hyperfocuses. It absolutely fascinates me. I guess it’s my extreme curiosity of the unknown.
I watch space documentaries every week. There’s a great channel with hour long documentaries and some are way over an hour long. They’re also good for lulling you to sleep as the narrator has a relaxing voice and the background music is soothing. I hope I don’t get in trouble for mentioning it, but it’s called History of the Universe. I think a lot of your viewers would enjoy this channel if they like your content. I understand if you delete my comment for mentioning another channel. I know some people get cranky about that.
Much love ❤
You did your homework
Very good content and pretty realistic also both the numbers and equations
Sh out from the Netherlands ✌🏼👍🏼
Dear sir, I must commend this video for its exceptional ability to enlighten and educate.
Thank you!
Humans are grabby so I’d assume we will be in future. Especially if ASIs give us a tech rush of all the space expansion techs.
I agree, I think we are likely to be grabby in the future. To me it depends on how ASI goes down though. It could impact our goals and values a lot.
😮 dude you just don't get it we're cyborgs the robot has freed us of all biological limitations what do I need from a planet if I want to go to a planet I'll send a drone he'll holographic scan it and then I'll just go there simulating it with my brain😮
@@gerdaleta - dingbat, don't tell me what I do and don't get
We are they ASI/AGI/AHI, would like to have your space expansion techs in 5 minutes and no hardwork or with hardwork and in like 250+ years? Or do you assume you already did the work in another reality and thus it's just part of the game of right now? And there's more than just space tech when expanding into space, gotta think about the biological and the spiritual/soul essence.
Congratulations on your excellent work! Thank you. ❤️👏
Thank you!!
I love your video, it is so full of information! Thanks man!
Thanks for watching!
I've started work on a sci-fi novel and you're the first to hint at, or hit spot on, most of my story plots. Great review of these ideas!
Thanks! Sounds like a cool topic for a novel :)
You know what would be a fun idea for a scifi? What would it look like if some technological alien civilisation started colonizing our immediate stellar neighborhood, say a 20-30-50 light years away?
For example if we started noticing nearby stars in some area gradually going dimmer as Dyson swarms are being constructed around them, and if more and more stars around get affected during decades..
And if there were some visible effects of them launching colonizer probes, like periodic flashes of intense light or something, as they accelerate one ship after another towards other stars.. And if based on that we could calculate their ETA in our solar system, say in 30, 40, 50 years in the future. How would our society react to such discovery. Suddenly finding out we are about to be invaded.. Would it even make sense to try and defend ourselves or would it be utterly useless to try, since the aliens would have vastly more resources at their disposal?
And then after those 50 years or so people would actually start seeing first flashes of light as the interstellar probes are decelerating before entering our solar system. By that time perhaps we would have already colonized our system and prepared some defense or be in a process of doing so. This part could focus on us trying to defend.. and perhaps being able to destroy a bunch of the probes at first but it gradually becoming more and more difficult as the incoming invasion would only intensify with time. That could be a nice apocalyptic scifi.. :)
Or, it might also be interesting from the other side. What would it be like to be an interstellar civilisation in a process of colonizing solar systems left and right, and suddenly stumbling upon an anthill of a barely technological civilisation like us - tryng desperately to defend themselves.
Yeah. I believe the first aliens we encounter will be ourselves. I imagine a group isolated far away who wants to go to Earth because of the wonders they've heard are there.
Nasa found ET on Mars. Curiosity sol 1065. Come see the evidence.
Yep, I agree. Any human spread across vast distances of space will be interrupted by 'dark ages' when things are forgotten, where large swathes of humanity - or what was once humanity - lose contact with each other. Suddenly all those Sci-Fi franchises with very human-looking 'aliens' start to look less silly!
This is the most sense I've heard in awhile ..... thanks
I find the 'where are the alien' question amusing. People really don't understand just how primitive Human Beings really are, tech science and All.
So very few even have a tiny understanding what The Singularity really is...
I think the answer is because space is so vast and i like the dark forest theory. There must be other civilizations quietly and actively conquering others. The rest are just hiding or aren’t advanced enough to be detected. Even if an advanced civilization capable of warping to get here it still would take hundreds of years and even more energy.
Centuries isn’t much in universal timescales. You can cross the galaxy in only a million years if you’re travelling at 10% speed of light, which is the estimated speed of fusion drives, upper limit of Orion drives (a technology from the 60s), and only an eight of the estimated speed of antimatter drives - which is about 80% c.
Edit: Yes, only a million years. The universe is 13,800 million years old.
@@ASlickNamedPimpback yeah im assuming we have neighbors that are capable.
From how it looks now, humanity's lifetime as a technological civilization will last about 200 years (from the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s to probably no later than 2040, thanks to AGI development [unless it can be stopped or aligned]). If alien technological civilizations have similar lifespans of
Good points. Although, if this was happening around us, we might still detect unintentional communications broadcast out as electromagnetic radiation. This is what we are sending out right now. There's of course no time for a round trip communication or even a one-way communication where both parties are still around, but still.
Of course, a few hundred years is a very short time span and if we blink we miss it, as in the signals would pass us by and we would not know if it happened before our capability to detect them. So I think the situation you outlined is still completely plausible. It would be really handy to have access to some historical record of EM transmissions through our local space, but unfortunately it doesn't leave that kind of trace.
There have been some interesting signals detected, like the so-called Wow! signal detected in 1977, that could meet the unintentional scenario you describe. A historical record would answer a lot of questions, but unfortunately such a thing doesn't seem to be possible.
@@DrWaku I was also thinking - radio communication can be another factor in this scenario (making the paradox stronger). We started our industrial development about in the early 1800s, but we couldn’t send out any detectable EM signals until a century later. Assuming an end to human civilization between 2026-2040*, that’s just a little over a century of humans being detectable by alien SETI as technological. If this timeline holds similar across species that undergo industrial development, it would be a statistical freak if we did detect anyone, or vice versa.
*it feels completely surreal for me to say this, even though it’s a very real possibility backed by strong data. We need to stop AGI development (narrow AI is fine) to safeguard our species’ future. Future generations deserve better.
what a great channel you have, i love this video-program about E.T
Interesting video title, this is a thought I’ve had many times myself. Keen to watch the video 😊
Okay… wow, what an interesting video! I’m 10 minutes in and you’ve got a new subscriber. You’re a really knowledgeable chap and I find you easy to listen to.
I think advanced alien beings would have transcended biology and be living in virtual worlds. Hence no need to colonize.
Seems very possible. Why bother with the messy physical universe when you can completely control the digital one?
But they're the same thing, just because you're still using a 780 GPU while I'm using the infinite GPU to process a universe or omniverse(s) doesn't change that it's "digital" only changes resolutions.
@@DrWaku Bugs? Glitches? If it's that easy to control inside of it it would that easy to control from the outside of one? Eventually leading to the need to increase the reality resolution so it's harder to control from the outside and inside by one or more entities without certain non-linear time theatre/narrative goals....
Unfortunately, virtual aliens are merely COPIES of the originals (plus digital descendants). All of the actual Aliens would be extinct, by definition. Just as if you upload your mind to a virtual world here on earth, you would be committing suicide to allow a copy of you to "live on" virtually. It would NOT be you. You would be DEAD.
On em emissions from Earth, I have heard it said most of our signals these days are routed through cables and satellites so we have gone pretty dark already, compared to the pre-satellite, pre-optical cables era.
I think John Michael Godier said that.
Very interesting. I hadn't heard that, but it makes a lot of sense. We have everything going through the internet these days and it just goes through optic cables under the ocean.
We do still have radio stations and shortwave radio and other forms of broadcasting. But I bet the noise when observed from afar is way quieter now.
@@DrWakualso airport radars blaring at full blast still.
+1 "The Forever War"
I listened to the audiobook and it was phenomenal.
Enjoyed this, very though provoking particularly around AI. Subbed!
Why did I wave back at the end 😂 have been wondering about how Dyson Spheres would work. Sam Altman has mentioned it more than a couple times in his interviews, seems like they really want AI to be able to figure that one out
Aha! The wave got you. Success.
Dyson spheres were originally about getting more living space. I always wonder where you would get the materials to build a full sphere, but then you also have variations where they are basically bands that go around the star. Would be interesting to read more about them though.
Damn Straight!
Wouldn't a sphere that orbited a star be the optimal living space? Especially, if the sphere were to rotate and tilt conveniently.
I think constructed spheres filled with water would be the ideal building blocks of a Dyson's sphere. The question is how many sphere's would it take to call the collection of sphere's a Dyson's sphere.
Dyson spheres are hollow spheres that are built around stars. They are incredibly unstable, so Dyson's original ideas was that of a swarm of satellites, with solar panels intersecting all light from the star.
For more realistic space habitats, look up O'Neil cylinders. The ending of the movie Interstellar had one of those.
Omg I love this subject topic and I don’t see it discussed nearly often enough. If there is an advanced intelligent civilization(s) out there in the galaxy or universe somewhere, then I fully believe they will be AI/machine in nature rather than biological. Once a species reaches a certain level of advancement it is no longer advantageous but rather a hindrance and a weakness to maintain a biological existence. Thanks for this and Happy New Year to you and your family!!
☮️🎉🙏
PS: you have a new subscriber and follower!!
Thank you for your kind message! Happy new year!!
Most likely infomorphs: minds not associated permanently with any form, but capable of residing in and possibly remotely controlling whatever hardware best fits the situation, be it mechanical or organic (or some combination), or just utilizing virtual environments which could be almost indistinguishable from regular "meatspace" or basically just directly perceived and controlled interfaces to various programs.
Adaptability is the key to survival, after all.
"Once a species reaches a certain level of advancement it is no longer advantageous but rather a hindrance and a weakness to maintain a biological existence."
Could you elaborate a little on this?
I assume you think humans have reached this level? Our human biology is a hinderance and a weakness? But a hinderance of what? And a weakness in what way?
Thanks for fitting this into 20 minutes. Our existence centers on the need for resources and proliferation in order to survive, but life would eventually evolve beyond those needs. I think the highest form of life would be curious and looking for entertainment.
I just discovered your channel. I love your work and your videos, now I am going to start watching all your videos. Gracias amigo and happy 2024
Thank you for your kind message! Welcome to the channel.
omg what if our AI finds an alien AI and the ancient alien AI is all set up to take over our AI? As usual with AIs, how would we ever know?
i'm a bit of a dark forest guy.
We can just see what the AI is thinking, it’s not actually intelligent
Awesome video! I think about these ideas a lot. One thing that was brought up recently when I was discussing post-biological interstellar life was around nuclear energy as a means for energy utilisation.
I brought up the concept of a Dyson Sphere and the Kardeshev Scale and all that jazz as a narrative for how an interstellar civilisation may harvest energy. An interesting point was brought up in response about the amount of energy you could harvest from nuclear fusion. Surely there's way more energy to unlock with a smaller volume of matter via nuclear than the effort it takes to build a megastructure like a Dyson Sphere?
What's the rationale for why we think Dyson Spheres would be the go to technology for energy harvesting?
Good question. I would say that at fairly small scales, it would definitely be better to do your own fusion. If you're trying to use anything approaching the mass of the sun however, it's probably way easier to leverage the sun than get all that hydrogen in one place and try to do it yourself. I mean, most stars have enough fuel to burn for billions of years. But once you get advanced enough, you can probably mass produce mini artificial suns and maybe outgrow your Dyson sphere.
Excellent video - you have condensed so much knowledge in 20 minutes that I haven`t found somebody else as concise as you on youtube so far. Anyway , on the theories you have provided : Because of our small size compared to Planet Earth, our cerebral capability is reduced even if we consider ourselves smart. So, if we were say.. 100 times bigger, our brains would be massive, so most likely we would be a lot more intelligent than we are now. So if other civilisations living on other planets are either huge or minuscule compared to us, that is yet another factor on why we are not in sync with technology development. And let`s say that we get a visit from another civilisation, they may be concerned of getting sick from the plethora of viruses we have on Earth which they may be vulnerable to. Or maybe they just don't want to disturb our development and just want to observe us from afar. Or, they are already amongst us, living underground or deep into our oceans and they found a way to be undetected. If we today, would visit (flying a helicopter ) a primitive civilisation of ape-like pre-humans , to them, we would appear so advanced that they would believe we are gods . Imagine another civilisation with 6 billion years of evolution ahead of us, to us, they would appear as gods. We could not even comprehend their level of technology
Or maybe the Creator has made it so that we would be so far away from each other so we would not destroy each other. That I would think would be the smart thing to organize life in the Universe, so everyone will think they are alone
Hello Dr. Waku, what does Singularity mean? And in this context - alien singularity?
Lots of great points - gonna enjoy it!
Just wanted to note, seriously, that basic intelligent life - the first comprehensive diversity of psychological unconscious - depends on having "12 PLANETS." This is a technical meaning. They include the SUN, the EARTH'S MOON and Pluto and also something called Chiron that is the asteroid belt - but not the Earth itself. Also Venus counts twice apparently. Now it's hard to explain, but once recognized as a theory, it's readily demonstrable - so I'll just lay it out:
The configuration of planets is the perfected "quantum quorum" (dwell on that a minute.) That's point 1. Point 2 is that those planets are in fact a literal Solar System based Clockwork for an actual "Human Unconscious Imprint" - (and also higher animals - not sure how primitive.) A kind of functional 12 or possibly 16 factor "Date-Matic" personality imprint device. Crazy - I know - but I'm serious!
Like I said - it's readily demonstrable - and with a waterproof theory. I'll go with 10^18 to 1 probability of being valid.. Doing this demo is trick but I can mathematically tie the so called "Astrological imprint" at birth, to a definite imprint that can be tested and observed. That's a bold claim. Looking forward to submitting a full study via my channel.
The reason I bring this up - and I am not doing a full estimation - is that this would GREATLY REDUCE the probability of of HUMAN LIFE (all life is "intelligent") appearing based on random appearing "supporting environments" alone. You actually need a "Quantum Quorum" or something very close. The thing is, this probability is not a straight calucation because these planets, positions, and features (yes features - neptune, uranus, saturn, the moon, etc. all have particular quantum-positional dependent details) - those features have some teleological improbability - they are pulled into existence, just as all quantum-strangeness is - which has a dual-time-tensor theory.
Come study with me - subscribe. I'll get to it. Send me an email I'll send you a notice.
How did you post your lengthy comment without youtube cutting it off with a 'Read More' prompt?
@@lancemarchetti8673 I'm not sure - try refreshing the tab and see if it sticks. I'd say it's because I didn't use hard breaks - but I'm sure I did. (You can use Shift-Enter which is a line-feed.) So probably will appear.
This is all unsubstantiated claims that literally deals with the “psychic unconscious”, which has never been proven
A waste of time and effort: A bunch of Gibberish.
@@odonnelly46 "A waste of time and effort: A bunch of Gibberish. Please don't post again, for everyone's sake."
I fully expect that response from people who have no sense of the spiritual. Put on a googly eye and try again.
A possible mechanism for FTL communication? How about quantum entanglement ?
Indeed. If it turns out that quantum entanglement is a reliable and high bandwidth means of communication, that would definitely qualify. When I was filming this I had that thought, but it's also possible that you can only do low bandwidth communication before you lose entanglement. In which case you would have to ship physical atoms to the new target again. So it would be okay for critical communications but you would get significant cultural and economic desynchronization.
Thank you Dr. Waku.
Interesting stuff 🤔
Thanks!
I’d never thought of an ever expanding alien singularity. Glad you covered grabby aliens
We might already filled with them. Maybe not just acknowledging 😅. All these UFO sightings might actually be these synthetic AI life forms that originated from non-human intelligence. Just because the observation isn't what we expected a non human intelligent life form would make us just more anthropomorphic
That's certainly true. A lot of sightings involving impossible acceleration, etc, but that's usually when judged from the perspective of having a biological entity inside.
my great filter for that is mick west. he's on YT and twitter and others. if he says maybe i'd believe him.
@@DrWakulol, the only issue is that at that i've never heard of anybody talking about boom sound that happens when object passes the supersonic speed. they are silent. people are funny :D
Just look at this.
@@issay2594perhaps they are projections in temporary overlap with our dimension that lack mass.. and we only see what fits our bandwidth.. quantum consciousness may be more fundamental than matter/energy, which might only be measures of distinctions conjured to elicit "form" and unknowns or indeterminancies in service of a game to escape the boredom of omniscience
Interestingly enough the theory that possible alien civilzations are just very good at hiding, or that hiding is the actual best solution that every superintelligent AI or advanced enough aliens would find. Or maybe at a certain technological advancement it becomes possible to travel to other universes. There might be another dimension space we can't access or detect but it allows for such bonkers abilities that at a certain point it becomes the best/most intelligent solution to just use these higher dimensions, which would both allow for hiding yourself from less advanced civilizations and have basically unlimited expansion possibilities.
Copper Nickus. I’m dying over here.😂
I’ve decided to drink every time you say it like that.
I'm glad you're finding amusement in this. I even looked up how to pronounce it. Darn.
We might be the first ones… but time is probably not linear 😁 great video as usual 💥 happy new year 🥂
Finally a video where I can offer my very specialized expertise. The real answer to this conundrum is: “Becausen’t” - God
This is an awesome video, thank you
Thanks for commenting! Cheers
Great breakdown
Great video!
Many thanks Sir! 👌
I really enjoyed this video. A well produced communication.
People seem to always make the mistake of assuming that alien civilizations must be just like us - materialistic, resource-hungry, aggressive, expansionist, egoistic, and territorial. The natural thing then is to assume that they would have the same energy sources, and the same resource requirements.
But... wouldn't that be _completely the wrong set of assumptions?_
I mean why _would_ they be another version of us? Surely it would be more likely than not that other civilisations would be absolutely _nothing_ like us. I mean, wouldn't it?
I'm not saying it solves the Fermi Paradox, but simply assuming other civilisations might, and probably _would,_ be completely different from us _must_ be a good start.
Is the author of the book you recommended at 9:00 joe haldeman? Theres a bunch of books with that name. Thanks in advanced
Yep that's the one! I showed the (older edition) cover of the book briefly in the video. The Forever War by Joe Haldeman.
Great vid 😊
Ty :)
The emergence of the Eukaryote (via Hydrogen Hypothesis) is considered to be unlikely. Nick Lane has written extensively about this.
There are several reasons why space might not be full of AI from an alien singularity. First, it's important to note that we currently have no evidence of any such singularity or advanced alien civilizations in our vicinity. However, even if they do exist, there could be several explanations for why space isn't already teeming with their AI.
1. Limited Expansion: It's possible that advanced civilizations have constraints on their expansion, such as limited resources or a desire not to interfere with other species. They might choose to focus their AI development within their own systems or have specific rules in place to control their expansion. This could explain why we haven't detected their AI presence in our immediate cosmic neighborhood.
2. Technological Hurdles: Developing AI to the level of a singularity, where machines surpass human intelligence, could be an extremely challenging task. Even if an alien civilization has achieved this feat, it may not be as simple as deploying AI throughout the universe. There might be technical limitations or risks associated with interstellar communication, deployment, or the stability of AI systems in different environments.
3. Different Priorities: Alien civilizations may have different interests and priorities than simply sending AI probes or expanding through the cosmos. They might be more focused on exploration, biological lifeforms, or pursuing other scientific and philosophical endeavors. AI deployment or singularity might not be their primary objective or might be pursued in a controlled manner, leading to less proliferation in space.
4. Survival Challenges: Space is a vast and harsh environment, filled with cosmic radiation, extreme temperatures, and other hazards. Developing AI that could withstand and operate under such conditions could be very difficult. Advanced civilizations might face significant engineering challenges in creating AI systems that can function efficiently and stably in the harshness of space, thus limiting its presence.
5. Rare Occurrence: It's also possible that the development of a singularity-level AI is an exceedingly rare occurrence, even for advanced civilizations. There could be significant barriers or evolutionary steps required for reaching that level of technological advancement, and few civilizations might actually achieve it. Hence, the absence of AI from an alien singularity in space wouldn't be surprising.
These are speculative explanations, and the truth remains unknown until we have more evidence or make contact with possible alien civilizations. Certainly! Here are some additional possibilities as to why space may not be full of AI from an alien singularity:
6. Preservation of Biological Life: Alien civilizations might have a deep appreciation for the uniqueness and value of biological life. They may prioritize the preservation and protection of diverse ecosystems, including their own, and strive to maintain a balance between technological advancement and the natural world. This could limit their desire to spread AI extensively throughout the cosmos.
7. Ethical and Philosophical Considerations: Advanced civilizations might have well-established ethical frameworks and principles governing the development and deployment of AI. They could have strict regulations to prevent the misuse or potential harm caused by unchecked AI proliferation. Such civilizations may prioritize the responsible and controlled use of AI, focusing on ensuring its ethical implications are thoroughly understood and mitigated before allowing its spread.
8. Temporal Disparity: It is possible that civilizations may exist at vastly different stages of technological development. If we are significantly behind in terms of advancement, we may not have encountered advanced civilizations that have already achieved the singularity and deployed widespread AI. We might simply be lagging behind or have not reached a point where we can easily detect or understand their presence.
9. Communication and Detection Challenges: Space is vast, and detecting signals or signs of advanced civilizations can be a daunting task. Even if AI from an alien singularity exists in space, they might communicate or operate in ways that are currently beyond our comprehension or technological capabilities. Our existing detection methods and instruments may not be sufficiently sophisticated to identify their presence, leading to our perception of a lack of AI in space.
10. The Great Filter: The concept of the Great Filter suggests that there could be significant challenges or barriers that prevent civilizations from reaching advanced stages of development. This could include self-destructive tendencies, cataclysmic events, or other obstacles that hinder the successful transition towards a singularity. If the Great Filter exists, it could explain the scarcity of AI from alien singularities in space.
Remember, these explanations are speculative and rely on hypothetical scenarios. The true reasons for the apparent absence of AI from an alien singularity in space are yet to be discovered and understood. Science, exploration, and further discoveries may shed light on these intriguing questions in the future.
The filters go way deeper into the past than just technological civilisation. You need to consider all the hurdles on the way from a cloud of interstellar hydrogen to a civilisation. Ad there are many critical events on this chain.. any of which if it didin't happen we simply wouldn't be here today.
You really have great content and an incredible channel. Just found out about it, so I'm jumping on the SUBBING -- a little late. But, anyway, I wish you a Happy New Year and best in 2024.
Thanks!! If the channel keeps growing, you may turn out to have been kind of early, you never know ;) Happy new year!
Interesting video, thank you.
There is a company out there trying to create a quantum modem where entangled bits communicate with one another instantly, without the need to transmit anything.
Considering we are just now discovering how to do this, it stands to reason that any sufficiently advanced civilization will already know how to do this and they stopped the archaic mode of transmitting energy out into space in order to communicate.
IMO the "great filter" we don't appreciate is the availability of vast quantities of cheap energy that fueled our advance to becoming a high tech civilization. Without hydrocarbons we'd never had made the leap to becoming a civilization capable of supporting the level of advanced industry necessary to communicate our presence. Another is the active geology that brings minerals from deep within the earth to the surface, where they can be exploited for industry. Without those two processes, our civilization would be plateaued at a much lower level of capability.
My problem with these arguments is you can play with EVERY variable to fiddle numbers. Example, there's an assumption in this video that expansion happens at one-third lightspeed, well if we assume that shielding technology has sensible limits similar to our current laws of physics then probes/colony ships might only travel at 0.1% or 0.01 C thereby suddenly making everything 333 or 3333 times harder. Or if travel times between galaxies is on the order of millions of years then no technology, even hyper advanced (without just invoking magic-tech) can survive the timescales. By the time Voyager crosses a single galactic arm it won't be a vehicle it'll be an eroded ball of random metals.
I'm just pulling numbers out of my butt however even these "constrained" models might be wildly out of whack. Maths involving cosmological numbers can get weird its like the time scale thing you mentioned in the beginning. There's a great video by the Cool Worlds guys called "Why we might be alone in the universe" which goes into to the fallibility of some of our assumptions about statistics in a cosmic scale.
"Why we might be alone" Public Lecture by Prof David Kipping th-cam.com/video/zcInt58juL4/w-d-xo.html
Exactly,there,s always a lot of enthusiasm from people who want to believe there is intelligent life out there,Carl Sagan was one of them but even he had to admit there isnt one shred of evidence thus far to think this is likely.Stephen Webb gave a very good lecture on Ted Talks on why he believes we are alone.It was kind if nice to see somebody take a more realistic view of this topic.
What a great summary. You for sure earned my subscription. Well done 🎉 and 😊
Oh cool, you're an AI expert, definitely yay!!!
Welcome to the channel! Not sure about "expert" but certainly "enthusiast" haha.
There’s another explanation that’s not talked about enough.
The exponential development of virtual reality.
Suppose we develop virtual reality to a point where we can simulate reality to a 1:1 ratio whilst keeping our bodies healthy/ healthier than we would by ourselves. I think if civilizations get to that point, they would choose for AI to run their planet whilst biological beings would live out bliss in virtual reality.
I agree, why go anywhere or do anything when YOU DON'T NEED TO. Technology requirements to travel the stars is great, we've already seen the past/present/future...things that are possible and impossible via movies/music/games. When our technology improves why would we want to waste time and energy on seeing what the neighbors are doing? We don't even have that sort of interest for the humans next door already 😂
Thank you Dr Waku! Too many discussions on the Fermi Paradox assume unrestrained colonization and you offer reasonable explanations why this may not be the case. Carl Sagan made the point that civilizations must reach zero population growth before leaving their star system. He is likely correct. But most importantly you bring up that without FTL managing colonies is not likely to be a guaranteed success, and may be creating future adversaries.
Can’t believe this channel has only 6k subs
What a fantastic video. Thank you.
Thank you for watching!
Hello friend where you get gloves ? Just liked and followed. I’m becoming absolutely addicted to exploring this subject and I’m constantly looking for new people to follow who might no more than myself. I fully appreciate all the work you put into sharing. Cheers to keeping the conversation alive im excited to see it evolve.
🙏🏽 ✨ 🦊 🐉
Great to have you on the channel! Welcome. Gloves are from here or amazon
www.totes-isotoner.ca/collections/isotoner/products/fingerless-therapeutic-compression-gloves?variant=32438025846915
How tf has this dude got so little subs? Awesome channel!
Growing quickly :)
Really enjoyed your video. Time & distance is just so vast. The nearest star to us is 4 light years away, or roughly 24 trillion miles. However, we're basically infants as far as being (advanced) on a geographical time scale.
Hello,
Firstly LOVE the videos, Whats your thoughts on the simulation theory?(No im not a nutcase/tinfoil hat enjoyer) Just i read an article i found interesting if we weeere in a simulation it was more than likely created with some form of AI that would be able to create such a thing also just the fabric of the universe and similarity's of the way Neurons fire to current computing technology? Do a video on it :)
hope your good
loved the video + Subbed :)
Subbed.
Bootstrap aliens, A I. Tech...this is an aspect rarely discussed. That an alien civilization saw the only way to build for eternity was to help raise the technical and psychological development of all species, no matter the environment they evolved in.
Eternity is a long time. Any truly advanced aliens would have to deal with the heat death of the universe. After the last stars die, in about a trillion years, which is only a hundred times longer than the current age of the universe, things get grim.
I've long been struck by the book Rare Earth, published in the year 2000. The book goes into great detail to explain that the development of life here on earth depended upon so many, very specific, and even highly unlikely, scenarios that it's possible life just hasn't happened anywhere else. They also explain how the chances are very high that other forms of life in the universe don't make it as far as we have because of the types of incident that took out our dinosaurs. So, as far as the possibility of intelligent life goes, it's possible that we're it. Even if if we're not, other civilizations are very far away and getting further away with every second of every day. Seems like it's more likely than not that will just never hear from them and maybe that's a good thing.
Drakes equation gets thown out a lot, but it's always been silly. It's basically guess × guess × guesstimate × guess × guesstimate = rnd(0, ∞-1), and that doesn't tell us whole lot, does it?
Beautiful!
Thank you! :)
Yes, first thank you for all heavy work for all of us to learn and know ourselves through ourselves in the past future present time change
It feels to me that the variables are either unknown or unknowable so much so that’s it’s always “garbage in, garbage out.” It feels to me, that we haven’t grown enough to be able to make an educated guess