Electric car sales create 'demand destruction' as oil price collapses
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 ก.ย. 2024
- Electric car sales create 'demand destruction' as oil price collapses
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The decline is much worse than many realize because of the way the stats are reported. Most journalists (you too Sam) try to relate the sales rate of EVs to the consumption rate of oil. These are entirely different things. Every single EV sold reduces the oil consumption rate for ever. Every single week, forever. What we really need to monitor is the EV fleet size as a percentage of the total. That is what determines the consumption rate of oil. If you do you will see why the oil companies are scared.
What about total number of cars used changing?
Seems to me that the current economic downturn has people thinking that worldwide auto sales have stopped increasing and I don’t believe that at all
@@SigFigNewton Here in the US, total vehicle sales were down in the first half of the year by 8.8 percent, while EV's actual grew by 2.4 percent. This pushed up EV market share by 1 percent from 7.9 to 8.9 percent. Market share of EV's have continued to increase at the expense of ICE but you are correct that economy has had a serious effect on both markets.
China's transition to EV's will pretty much destroy the economies of oil countries all over the world.
Precisely. Not to mention how downplayed is the entire "oil infrastructure". People talk about "dirty battery minerals" yet they often embelish and manipulate figures surrounding oil burning activities like gasoline cars and the entire aviation industries. They forget that oil-based fuel takes a lot of energy to refine, and it uses oil-burning vehicles like large tanker ships and oil trucks to transport these fuel around, and then burned by an engine that needs to constantly cycle between heating-cooling, pressuring-vacuuming - an inherrent thermodynamic flaw.
These activities are never taken into account when people quote "carbon" emission from said ICE cars or air travel. Yet, people happily include coal-burning power plant emission and battery mineral activities into EV impact, which given their inherent effiiciency, still give them marginal victory over the highly polished and manipulated ICE and air travel pollution figures.
Electricity travel by cables, and it is far more efficient, at delivering the energy - every carbon dioxide emitted by coal burning power plants are all going into wheel torque + heat.
@@yohannessulistyo4025 Yes! Exactly. I don't recall the exact number, but there is a figure that shows that for every gallon put in your tank, another x gallons was spent getting it there (Anyone know the number?). So to your point - every EV reduces oil use by more than than the gasoline it avoids consuming.
Here in Norway, where 95% of cars sold are BEV's, the volume of petrol used annually since 2018 have dropped 12% and diesel 10%. At the same time number of cars increased 5%, and the population increased more then 4%. The total use of oil&gas is the same in 2023 as in 2018, but we are more people, with more cars that drive longer year over year. So, in total, consumption of oil have dropped per citizen.
"The total use of oil&gas is the same in 2023 as in 2018"
@sungam69 Stop it. We all know Norway with all its hydrothermal power and gas & oil dosnt need it. It would be foolish to drive gas+ it's punitive to drive ICE! Duuu
I was checking 2023 against 2015 and saw only a 5 % reduction
Dropped 10%? And 95% of all new cars electric?
What about more efficient ice car?
I do not understand this logic 😂
I think everyone there still have ice car too 😂😂😂
@@sungam69 yes, with 4% more peaople, and cars is 30% of the oil&gas volume. Soo BEV's compensates for the increased population.
Countries with no oil will go green first it will save lots of money
If only Japan would join this. Japan's oil consumption seems to have gone up.
Really ? I thought the 200+ Billion Dollars the US has spent on this failed EV transition was a sign that OIL, cheap Oil is what makes countries Thrive and become profitable to afford the Trillion dollars needed for Electrification. Not sure 3rd world Nations like the US can afford this. It should be cheap but to many companies are screwing everyone over.
They will go back to the 1800's lifestyle ,,,very cheap.
So what are they going to charge all these EVs with? Where will they get all the electricity from? Oil products are needed for everything we use daily not just petrol or diesel for cars. The cheaper it gets the more stimulated our economies become. Good news for all of us.
Hi, it will have a bigger effect because oil is in USD and exchanging currency costs and devalues your own currency, this disappears as demand for oil reduces. Fuel for Power Generation is also being reduced by the adoption of green alternatives, wind and solar.
Take care all M.
My best friend's brother-in-law is the real estate/fleet strategist for a Fortune 10 company and he stated quite clearly that they've already drawn up the plans to replace their entire ICE fleet (>10k units) with EVs as soon as the right EVs are available. The economics already pencil out.
One wonders to what extent subsidies make these numbers add up, what are they considering in terms of residual values. How about user needs and experience? I have an EV that I charge at home and love it. I rented one Norway and it was a nightmare. My EV has lost 50% of its value in 18 months… I can afford it, Joe Public not so much and without their own parking and charging I’m sure it’s not so much fun
It is not just the EVs. China is also producingmore and more electricity each year through the renewable sources, slowly phasing out fossil fuels from electricity generation systems. (although not fast enough in my opinion)
So is the USA we have in fact more renewable and nuclear energy capacity per capita than China does right NOW online!
And we have as many evs&phevs otr as they do per capita. The eia said 2025 will see peak oil use in the US for road transportation. 👍🏻
Sinopec China's largest oil refiner in late 2023 said they would see peak oil over there for road transportation this year! 😎
Like I said before people have no clue how little margin is in gas&how much it's subsidized. The eia also says over 20% of ALL global oil refineries will be insolvent by 2030 or even sooner. I bet by the end of 2025 they revise that down to 2028 or sooner.
For the stupid low iq gashole mouth breathers who breathlessly exclaim ev demand is down! Nah in 2017 the whole world sold 1,000,000 evs&phevs. Now China alone does more than that in less than 30 days. Just 2017-2023 saw a near 18x in ev&phev sales globally.
They'll end 2024 at 20-22% of ALL global vehicle sales. So another 4x from here by 2028-2030 and outside of exotic oems no more pure combustion vehicle's will be sold.
The U.S. also will have enough locally sourced evs&ev cells to supply 12,000,000 evs with pack's sized similar to tesla by 2030.
8,000,000+by 2028. In 2024 our total vehicle sales will be about 14,700,000.
So even the backwards U.S. by 2030 will have 80-90% capacity for evs made here and powered by our own cells. 😎
This is a false statement. China built 95% of all new coal powered power stations in 2023 with India building the rest.
Sure they are and EVs are totally Green ! Who the hell beleives anything from China!
Just to be detailed, from a 55 gallons drum of oil refineries creates not only gasoline but other distilled products during the refinery process. Diesel fuel, propane gas, Heating oil, jet fuel, etc. It takes a lot if energy to convert Oil to gas. It's not and will never be a clean source of energy.
One thing to note, while China built out 43GW of coal plants last year they also retired 30GW of older dirty plants. So it reality they only truly added 13GW of new coal power and they are cleaner plants. Compare this to the 216GW of solar they built in 2023 and 51GW of wind, it's clear they are on the right track.
What people also don’t realize is that ICE cars and trucks are much more fuel efficient than they were a decade or two ago, especially hybrids. I rented a cheap, enormous GM SUV last summer to help an elderly friend move from Northern California to Los Angeles and was astounded by the mileage that thing got. It was around what my 2008 Hyundai Elantra got, even though you could practically park the Hyundai in the back of this thing. And it wasn’t even a hybrid.
Even without factoring EVs into the mix, demand for oil is being destroyed.
Efficient yes. Use less fuel and oil? No. Most people are still hovering around 20 miles per gallon or less.
@@vinster8884 I don't know where you're getting that statistic from. Average fuel economy in 2017 was 22.3MPG and had been slowly but noticeably increasing since 2010. I'm guessing the pandemic and the increase in work from home also drove huge decreases in overall driving.
The fuel economy I'm seeing even in large non-hybrid new vehicles is insane, given their size. It'll take 5 years or so for those to really dent the averages, but it's coming and so is that demand destruction. And of course the hybrids - especially the plug-in hybrids - blow even that fuel economy increase out of the water.
China has taken the lead on renewables and EVs - this makes them the LOWEST cost country in the world and will be reflected in lower manufacturing costs!
They are MUCH smarter than most countries that still SUBSIDIZE fossil fuels!
Their not safer, they have a lot more battery fires than anyone else does.
Lower manufacturing costs you say?
Cost of labour is now more expensive than some other countries as their economy has developed and plenty of companies will/are leaving for various reasons.
Demographics will mean big changes over the next few years as well.
Things may look very different in a decades time.
I see evil comnents from anti China peep here. Pathetic losers.
@@michaelkeudel8770 I hear those fires are hybrids not BEVs...
@jaaklucas1329 I've seen videos of both on TH-cam, the exploding batteries that launxh the car about 10 feet in the air before crashing back down don't look like a chance I'm willing to take.
You need to consider that many early adopters of EV’s are people who probably drive much more than the average person. I drive 60,000km / year with my Tesla and I believe this could explain the disproportional drop in demand for gasoline.
Not sure about other countries, but according to MIT, in the U.S. "We find that EVs are driven between 2,500 and 4,200 fewer miles annually on average than gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. Plug-in hybrid vehicles are driven on average anywhere between 800 and 2,900 fewer miles than gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. Conventional hybrids, on the other hand, are driven more than gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles by anywhere from 690 to 2,100 miles on average, depending on the measure of annual driving."
@@JP16758lots of taxi/Uber are EV.
@@JP16758the couples who own one of each and both are used to commute to work and then they take the gas car on their two long road trips per year
@@antoinepageau8336 while I’m not an early adopter I do agree that if you drive a lot it just makes sense. In my 6 months of owning my EV I have already driven 16K miles. Having an EV just makes things easier. As for charging when traveling I use that time to complete phone calls, schedule appointments and prepare for my next meeting. So time utilization has actually increased.
@@JP16758I’m calling bs on your statistics as they are skewed by diesel trucks that are the majority long haul vehicles for now.😮
As gas goes down in price, it'll likely delay the US switch to EVs unfortunately... We need a new Tesla or good EV under $25k soon.
Kia EV3 can't come soon enough
@@BlindedByLogic The Model 3 cost about US$36,000 to make. There’s no way they can make a US$25,000 car. That’s why they cancelled the Mexico plant. Also, Americans and Canadians don’t want small compact cars.
@@rioriggs3568
10/10 is just around the corner. Let's see what Tesla has to offer. The Mexico plant was not cancelled, they just haven't yet started construction. Tesla seems to be changing their approach to personal transportation. They are close to completing FSD which will lead to robotaxis. Robotaxis should be far, far more profitable than selling EVs to individuals. Plus one robo should replace 5 to 10 private cars, taking a lot of ICEVs off the road.
No, we need to get fast charging to a price where it’s on par with the cost per mile of cars. Average highway MPG is 30, so gas at $4.50 will help radically in introduction. I’m willing to bet more premium brands go away from petrol before standard petrol.
Byd, nio, xpeng, etc
Hi Sam, there is a refinery in Grangemouth Scotland that has anounced that it is closing next year the company's CEO has said: "Demand for key fuels we produce at Grangemouth has already started to decline and, with a ban on new petrol and diesel cars due to come into force within the next decade, we foresee that the market for those fuels will shrink further. I can only see more of this on the way and at some point I belive petrol will become very expensive as ther will notbe the demand to make it in vast quantities.
The operators of the refinery disagree with your statement. They said they are closing because they cannot compete with the refineries in other parts of the world, that produce their products cheaper. The facility currently supplies about 14 percent of the petroleum fuels used in the U.K. There are also plans the facility will be converted into a port unloading facilities for the cheaper products from all over the world, thereby insuring a cheap reliable supply far into the future.
BBC website. Ceo words not mine. Last sentence mine I left out the closing speech marks
Franck Demay, the company's CEO, said: "Demand for key fuels we produce at Grangemouth has already started to decline and, with a ban on new petrol and diesel cars due to come into force within the next decade, we foresee that the market for those fuels will shrink further”
It is a while away but I am waiting for stories of range anxiety for Ice cars.
It will happen for sure.
😂😂😂
@@CheeseLovingGuy - Look out for hark-back stories of the fuel rationing of the 1970's fuel crisis becoming the trend on the major news sites, this will indicate when that's just about to happen.
Wait, already? 2024?
I thought I was overoptimistic thinking this would happen in 2027! Wow :o
Great report Sam.
This is good, because there’s better use o Oil & Gas, with Peak oil (depletion of cheap oil). Need O & G for other things, lubricants, plastics, cargo ships & planes. Trains etc, that will take longer. Asphalt etc
Try some Crisco. It's animal fat. All the rest will be made out of transparent aluminum. Roads? Where were going, we don't need roads!
I work in the energy sector. This is a huge problem. approx 1/3 of oil demand is transportation and a big chunk of that is China, which is going away before our eyes. Europe's vehicle transition is already underway if not as fast, and america will eventually follow. Oil is effed, but Gas will stick around for a while, it's a transition fuel and less polluting.
Gas is only a little bit less polluting than coal or oil and then only if it’s safely handled from wells to combustion. Any leakage along the way are of much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.😮😢
@@malcolmrickarby2313 yes but there's a huge amount of abatement going on right now with these projects & assets - a lot of CCS and much more to come. I'm not saying gas is good, Im simply providing an observation that there is a consensus forming among financiers and developers that gas is a transition fuel. Eventually the regulator will provide the guidance against it, but that will take some years.
Two and three wheel EV's in Asia and Africa are taking a bite, too.
I have been riding Ebikes for years and the amount of small EVs I see are growing fast. My car gets 2-3k miles a year and the Ebike drives the rest. Everything electric is causing problems with gas prices.
I am seeing more two wheeled EVs in Latin America also.
Has more to do with the Chinese economy slowing and expectations of a slowing US economy. The total amount of gasoline and diesel displaced by all EVs combined is trivial compared to total global oil demand.
Over 40 million sold, sales still increasing 20%. Just do the basic math. Average car 15 gallon tank filled once a week. Multiply those numbers, then multiply again by 52 weeks. That comes to 31.2 Billion gallons removed from the market every year and growing.
@@michaelkeudel8770 Trying to correlate EV sales to global demand for oil is rather ridiculous really imo.
Fears of recession or an actual recession will drive down the price of oil as demand for everything reduces and production decreases.
The oil market is also very highly manipulated.
A while back they were basically giving oil away and that was before EVs were even really a thing in the mainstream.
@@oldbloke204 No, thats a reality based on EVS registered on the road, thats 40 million plus cars that DO NOT USE GAS. 32 Billion gallons of gas removed from yearly demand. And that drop in demand will continue to grow. Tesla alone is selling close to 400,000 new cars every 12 weeks, the rest of the group is still trying to find it's footing. And EV demand in China is even higher. BYD is selling more ne EV's than Tesla, but they aren't a very safe car, nice looking, cheap, but garbage when it comes to safety and exploding battery packs.
Making lots of money on my oil stocks in fact this year has been one of the best for me
BIG collapse is coming.
I am an EV owner and EV sales have certainly put a dent in gasoline demand, but the largest part of this fall is the recession it is now clear we are in. Oil futures are falling as world economies roll over.
True
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
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New cruise ships are now LPG. That's another hit. Its just a matter of time before the rest of shipping world moves that way. It's still burning stuff, but it's not oil.
That is amazing. Thanks for informing us about this. After I read your comment I looked up how much gasoline a cruise ship uses. It was staggering.
In the aviation, you can't build a jet engine with electric motors.
@johnrobert2148 but they could use natural gas if get modified which is more powerful and efficient than avtur, and domestic travel could get replaced by hsr and maglev
LG actually stands for Liquefied Petroleum Gas, a by product of oil refining. i think what you meant to say was LNG, which is Liquefied Natural Gas, which is obtained directly from the ground.
Keep in mind that this is in the face of falling production in Russia. Russia was the second largest oil producer last year. If it wasn't for EVs, we would be paying a lot more for oil as Russia's production collapses.
Petrol stations are going to a big hit too as they work on a tight margin from the petrol sold.
I don't know, they might just have enough close to increase the margin.
@@KevNpton Not if they’re smart and put in chargers .
Blockbuster!
Petrol (gas) stations in the USA don't make very much on the extremely low margin gasoline they sell, the gas is a "loss leader" that attracts customers who buy junk food, lottery tickets, beer (in some states), and cigarettes, which have much higher margins. I've live in a fast growing area with very high EV ownership and we've had two gas stations permanently close recently.
We had a rural petrol station back in the 80,s. We never made much money from selling fuel most of the money was made from selling food n drinks.
It is terrifying how many people still think, first, there is no climate crisis so, second, no need for EVs… I know as I made a comment on a pro ICE channel and boy the comments!
Gas prices have to go down, merely to entice people to continue to buy gas powered cars.
Oil is a marginally priced commodity. Amazing how many people, especially MSM, have no concept of how marginal pricing works. It is very simple. A small change in demand can have an inordinate huge effect on price of that commodity. Volume produced may still be quite high, but if is as little as 5% above demand the price may fall 50%. Personally 5 years ago I thought oil price would collapse by the end of 2023, but so far the cartels have managed to control the volume decline and still fix the price. But it will increasingly be a losing game because too many dictators have got used to the cash flow drug. 'Grey market oil' will soon be a well known term.
And, btw, this is why the Russian/Ukraine war will soon be history. If oil price totally collapses which is entirely possible, Russia is going to be failed state real fast. Ditto a whole lot of the other conflicts like the middle east. A lot of these conflicts are going to be gone because oil cash has been the blood fueling all of them. How many bedsheet heroes are going to be still strutting around with 10 dollar a barrel oil?
Russia will be fine, just look at the mines they have opened in the last decade. They have more than just oil, it is the largest country after all.
💯! ^^ THIS!
Spot on!
@@christianvanderstap6257 - but land doesn't buy the oil, it's the people that do. Russia is the 9th largest country by population, but it's population is shrinking so may well be overtaken by Ethiopia and Mexico as some point in the future.
@@GruffSillyGoat no but the land does contain the minerals that are used by their allies. I also don't think China will stop using nat gas for fertilizer soon either, it so happens to be that the same capacity pipelines as NS1 and NS2 are being constructed. So yes oil sales will decline, agriculture, nat gas, copper, lithium, titanium, aluminum, steel/iron and even things kike neon will be sold still.
Oil is an I inelastic demand commodity.
Definition of inelastic demand
1. If you don’t have enough… you’ll pay anything to get more.
2. If you have enough… you won’t pay a penny for more.
Commodities of this type exhibit extreme pricing volatility.
Oil’s price has been managed historically by Saudi Arabia… more recently by SA & Russia.
US fracking has thrown a curve ball at the Saudi’s.
EVs will have a long lasting devastating impact on the oil industry… but not yet.
Well the opppsite side of the coin is that with a fall in fuel prices, more people in the US/Canada area will buy as big an engine and truck as possible as the costs to drive will be more manageable. When gas is $2-3 per gallon, Americans drive more.
But we live in a world where China matters much more to oil prices than the US/Canada.
@@thorium222 The problem there is that 99% of the people in the US don't consider China at all
@@thorium222 you missed my point. This will further delay the adoption of EVs as the cost of gas is cheap. The mindset, that exists tends to be why change if gas is cheap. We have always had lower prices for gasoline compared to others. It is what built the automotive industry and car culture. I complained when gas hit $5 per gallon while on the East Coast. Then prices came back down to $2 per gallon. My distance driving went up and I purchased an even more powerful Supercharged V8. So lower gas prices in North America actually has an inverse relationship to EV buying.
@@binjones sad but probably true😢
Fuel costs isn’t the only factor. ICE engine sale boosts would only be temporary as manufacturers would still have to keep up with EV manufacturers or get left out to dry. The advantages of EV’s are winning over a lot of my ICE loving friends ata a rate that even fossil fuel propaganda can’t overcome.
Still high prices for petrol and oil here in the UK.....not that I've used the stuff for years !. Got my own 'gas' station at home, sun shines, plug in and get some in !
Prices are down due to economic slowdown in the US and China... Not due to EVs
EV adoption outside China is lower than expected
For the year as a whole, global oil demand is on course to INCREASE by 900 kb/d in 2024 and 950 kb/d next year.
Demand growth is slowing due to speculation regarding future demand.
Demand is NOT falling.
There is NO demand collapse.
The end is nowhere in sight because over 5,000 products used and needed by modern society come only from oil.
Oil will be out of the picture by 2035. If not earlier. The change is happening much faster than most people think. Many will be shocked.
Are you saying Sam is lying again ? 😂
@@pauld3327 Just stating the facts.
Apparently in the UK we now have over a million ev’s, that’s got to be hurting petrol station owners and oil companies. Some countries demand will go up and some it will go down.
Worlds smallest violin for the oil companies and investors losing money
I've run a small EV (Renault Zoe) for three and a half years and have driven some 40K miles in that time. I would have spent £6.5K in pertol for an ICE car over that time but, since I charge at home off peak, have spent around £1k on electricity. When you factor in the savings on road tax, servicing etc. The car is literally paying for itself. I'll never be a petrol customer again.
Electric bicycles are also having a big impact on oil demand.
This happens during a recession too.
At least in the US, air travel was up 8% from last year over Labor Day. This stat is very sensitive to economic conditions because most travel over Labor Day is mostly for pleasure and not for work. This is the first thing people cut when in a recession. The US isn't anywhere near a recession. I don't think anywhere else in the World (outside of Russia) is in a recession either.
Not only have I not been to a gas station for my car since 2019, I also just installed a heat pump at my house. So bye , bye stinky expensive propane gas. next year my transformation from Fossil fuels will be complete when I throw out the old propane water heater. Then everything is electrified. YOU CAN DO THAT TOO. It will save you lotsa money.
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Meanwhile, the US just broke a record. The new daily output is 13.4 million barrels a day. Go figure.
Not sure on the link with Sam's report, as this figure exemplifies the unique US marketplace. Sam's report is regarding global demand. The US represents ~4% of the worlds population.
Jake Broe suggests the US has done this is to keep the price low so that if Russia manages to sell any they won’t make a lot from it…. Seems like quite a good theory to me (?).
Wonder if Saudi Arabia will continue to cut production and let other OPEC countries continue producing at current levels.
Comparing Chinese demand to US supply is like comparing apples to zebras.
I mean sure, we’re all talking about carbon, but…
Another good video Sam. Another factor here in the UK is that up to 40% of people work all or some of the time at home. Also there are 11 million of us not working anymore including me so my mileage has fallen from 25,000 a year to 6,000 (I use the bus/coach a lot more). I could do without a car, won't buy an EV and will keep my Rover 75 (which is 20 years old) until I give up driving so no car industry jobs coming from me. If they introduce pay per mile and ULEZ here in Manchester England it won't really be worth me having a car (the insurance costs have doubled too since the Pandemic)
In the end of 2023 there were 40 million evs. Now, there are over 53 millions!! In a total fleet of 1,475 billion cars we can conclude that 1 out of 28 cars around the world has already a plug!!
IN the UK, my local petrol station's prices have fallen from around£1.43 per litre to £1.29 per litre over the last two weeks.
Somewhat amazingly ( to me anyway) - "Yes, electric scooters and other electric two- and three-wheelers are estimated to have reduced the world's oil demand by one million barrels per day. This is about 1% of the world's total oil demand." It isn't just EVs that are reducing oil consumption....
EV is any vehicle that runs using electricity, including those scooters and bikes. i think you mean electric cars when you say EV.
Hi Sam, A 10% change in sales can really screw a business. Besides cars we have hordes running away from oil and natural gas heating and cooking.
What could happen now is they will stop looking for it, so eventually the price of oil will go up, encouraging more EVs, the big difference to demand has been the 230 million electric 2 wheelers on the road, with the potential to double that amount.
Solar in the Tampa Florida area has hollowed out electrical demand during the midday for progressively more of the year. Duke and Teco are both scrambling to find something to do with it. They are idling their methane driven electrical power plants.
There's a lot more going on with oil prices right now than EVs. There is actual reduced industrial / commercial demand due to softness in demand of producer goods.
Gas prices could go up as economy of scale begins to wane but that's decades away, they will use a different excuse to keep the price of gas up until then. They have an endless list of "reasons" why the price goes up or down. Let me guess ..."refining costs have gone up" or maybe "geopolitical uncertainty" Oooohhh that's always a good one.
I’m ctfu when you said the demand for oil is falling you had this big ass grin on your face 😂😂😂I love it 😂😂😂
60mpg from my Kia Hybrid and petrol down to £1.33 per litre - love it. EV charging is however getting more expensive as cost if electricity goes up. EV adoption needs this to be the other way around.
I started watching Tony Ceba lectures after you made me aware of him. I thought the one where he was talking to the Arabian Sheeks was pretty good they kind of looked dumbfounded at what the was saying. You have to give them points for having him give the talk though .
The thing is that if oil is incredibly cheap it will make people want to buy petrol cars. So it won’t be as rapid as people think but it won’t be slow either.
I also don't think there are enough EVs on the road today to make a dent in the oil demand. Better mpg for ICE helps as well as hybrids, but I think it is more related to economic slowdowns. We need more EVs on the roads in the world to reallly make a dent. Norway is a great example and surprisingly, China may be another shining example of how a country can move to EVs. China may be able to put enough EVs on the road to actually dent the gasoline demand.
I wonder what the folks in N. Dakota are going to do? The fracking industry is going to go belly up!
This is why I named my model 3 NOPEC
Right on schedule
No no no Piston Pundit that doesn’t have a single ice video says EVs are dead, so there you go !
😅right!?
I stopped at a gas station on a main road where I live. It's a busy street with lots of shops and business. 4 of the 8 gas pumps at the station were converted to car vacuum stations.
Anecdotal, but it's a very noticeable anecdote. They didn't get rid of HALF of their pumps to make less money.
@@davidnika446 In my area one of the larger family owned gas/food stations also seems to have the Tesla superchargers installed as well.
It is finally here!!! My local hyundai and big 3 dealerships are all sitting on enough evs to seriously damage local consumption further, just a matter of time before they are forced to cut prices a bit further and get those vehicles off the lots.
Good to see EVs having some part in oil's decline.
But, with increasing population and decreasing oil supplies, and the fact that year-over-year stats continue to see INCREASES in overall fossil-fuel use (not just oil), oil markets are going to continue to be healthy--at least until they find a replacement for diesel trucks and heavy mining equipment.
Sam, other reports claim that the demand drop is due to economic downturn in China.
And to be honest I do not know who is right, so is it economics or EVs causing oil consumption to drop.
If I look at Norway (highest EV adoption in the world), their oil consumption is almost back to pre-covid levels.
For me this is undecided.
You are right about oil&gas consumption. However, the volume of petrol used annually since 2018 have dropped 12% and diesel 10%. At the same time number of cars increased 5%, and the population increased more then 4%. So, in total, consupmtion of oil have dropped per citizen.
Another commenter claimed that shipping was a much larger share of demand for it. Like ships for global trade. Not sure if they were including large trucks in “shipping”
I’ve been wondering why the oil market pretends it’s not ev and solar !
Hello Sam, greetings from 'down under' (at least from your pont of view).To be more precise: Germany!
Its not a surprise. the changing vehicle demographic is obvious here in Sydney. I see EV's everywhere. My next car will be a lot more efficient as well, no matter what kind of car it is, so we'll be using less fuel in overall demand, and almost everyone I know is heading in the same direction of less fuel use.
Majority of car sales being EV in China and their export capacity is the most important metric for oil demand. There is a reason the oil price is down.
Because a Big Mac at McDonald's costs about $10 on average. Remember folks oil runs our economy, so a lowering demand for oil signifies a slowing of the economy.
Not absolutely correct. The reduction in gasoline as fuel is being replaced by electricity. So the reduction doesn't reflect a reduction in the economy. Just a shift in the power source.
Global economy is going through struggles, US about to go into recession. What happens during these times, what has always happened during these times? Demand for oil going down and so does the price of oil. EV's would only be a very small part of this equation.
In 2030s I predict that driving gasoline cars is going to be a flex.
There are currently six Crude Oil tankers anchored on the Delaware Bay. This is I assume because the refineries up on the Delaware River don’t need the crude. The last time there was this many was when demand tanked during the pandemic. Gas prices in New Jersey have fallen below $3 per US Gallon. I don’t dispute the impact EV’s are having, but I think it has more to do with the slowing economy here.
How sad it is that billions are spent for new coal, gas and nuclear plants all over the world. We can do a lot with that money.
Much of the reason people today live so well is because of coal, gas and nuclear power. We need more and cheaper energy, not less. You really are drinking the Viking/EV/Green Kool aid
Soon petrol stations will start closing down and people will have to travel further to find some where to fill up. EV charging stations will get more numerous further accelerating the ending of combustion vehicles.
So the capacity of the electricity grid is endless and won't be impacted by ever increasing demands?
What planet are you referring to exactly?
Also in what world has the long haul truckers, Trains and Commerical Trucks gone to Batteries ? As well as things are going with this EV transision I have my doubts. If Trump gets in office that may inpact your plans. I agree eventually all roads will lead to EV utopia only verry slowly as EVs have Fed up harder than Joe Biden is old. They lost all customer confidence due to all the so-called fictions EV fires we keep seeing all over the News and Internet.
What you're predicting won't happen. Do you now the millions of people in the USA that live in apartments/condos with no garages much less an EV charging station? For those that live where there's snow and cold temperatures plus the apartment issue are not switching to EV's anytime soon.
Good news! Oil exporters better have been investing in an electrified future or they're screwed.
What has slowed down the price of oil is that Ukraine has hit oil refineries hard has taken around 10-15 percent of Russia's capacity offline. With Russia producing close to 10.5 to 11 millions of barrel of oil per day means 1-1.5+ million barrel of oil is off the market. That would of collapsed the prices.
To illustrate going forward, with the progress of EV growth, an additional 1-2 millions of barrels of oil less will be used next year and 2-4 million in 2026.
a bit over 3 us dollars a gallon here in the states where i am.... down from like 5 us a gallon. we say the price has fallen and it's better..... but i remember when it was .89 us cents a gallon..... so
Oil demand is falling in part to EVs also in part to global recession or anticipation of recession
I agree 100 percent.
It’s not only EV. In California 50% of the diesel is renewable diesel…the California LCFS market is growing to entire west coast
There is probably another reason for the decline, and that is the current problems many are experiencing in "the cost of living" crisis. I'm not saying it's the only.
As for EV's, I'm definitly seeing them, however their percentage is still quite low, but growing.
Here people continues to work from home -no car needed, or at least no petrol needed... More people choose bicycle instead of going by car etc etc... -several minor factors may result in lower petrol sales, adding up to bigger numbers.
Things to consider.... has coal production and sales increased (Coal is what primarily energizes EV's)? Also mass inflation results in an inability to purchase all things including oil/gas. Supply increases because demand decreased. Is it possible that you've drawn an association and not a causation?
Anyone deriving conclusions from afew weeks, month, or even a year of oil data isn't qualified to even predict or talk on the topic. Oil Sales & even EV sales have dropped because Chinese & American economies have not performed as per expectations. Beyond Europe where distances are shorter & masses are wealthier, it will take an eternity for EV's to make an impact.
Flat earthers....
The average car in Denmark gets 16 year old so the new cars sold must be arround 6% a year, if all new cars sold where electric it would still take 16 years to full electric takeover.
Drivers in California are mad as hell about paying highest US mainland gas prices. That's why the Model Y is the #1 selling car (Petro included) in the nations largest car market, beating Toyotas Rav4. Model 3 which is now #2 best seller. Great news for the future of our smoggy skies lol!
CA is LaLa land. You already have blackouts from regulating your power plants out of the state and you have a mandate to end new ICE sales in the near future at the same time you're bragging that EV's are going to replace ICE vehicles. You know EV's are powered by electricity... What's going to be you're substitute for no H2O.
Surplus will never materialize over a long term.
Here is why. The oil industry is functioning on maintaining a demand > supply. So when demand drops they drop supply to be just a bit below demand. They drop supply by closing down, selling, abandoning their production operations with the highest cost of goods sold, or acquisition channels that are likewise the most costly. Oil and gasoline production assets have a fairly wide range of variations in cost structures. Thus it makes sense to shed the most expensive cost channels or processes. Think oil sands. Very expensive to extract, and requires special refining of the very heavy oil.
So once the production has been adjusted down to meet the new supply targets (supply < demand) they have a lower average cost per unit sold - more profit. If supply is less then demand, prices go up. This is exactly what happened over the post covid gas pump price (inflation). Form that very good test case they found out one thing. Sell below demand gives the bottom line two big bumps up. Reduced cost and higher revenue per unit.
On April 20th 2020, the oil industry learned never ever have supply greater than demand. Never ever. It was the single most expensive first year economics lesson ever taught! The high gas prices was then testing the model supply always be below demand.
Sam can you do an episode on the Heavy Vehicle sector and their move to electric.
Can't wait
Divert the petrol not being used to the power stations, sorted.
With over 20 million EV's on the road now, and making up the majority of sales in some of the largest markets like: China and the EU, it's no wonder oil prices are crashing and will continue to sink. Within the next ~20-years, oil will primarily only be used for plastics, lubricants and asphalt, which are a tiny fraction of today's supply.
Gas is now expensive and people are broke equals lower consumption.
Id just like to say I enjoy your videos even though I generally only agree with 50% of what you say. (Maybe 60%) I generally love EVs and I'm gonna get one in maybe 2 years but I also have a Toyota hybrid and I just don't see how you can argue with Toyotas current sales numbers? Sure their EV's are currently cow doodoo but you can't blame them... They're currently having record profits. And they're hybrids are genuinely very good
Great impact from EVs then - drop the price of fuel and increase the demand for cheap to run ICE vehicles.
Electric cars are great.
Deisel $1.65 today so I filled up, more Electric cars the better. 😂
Gasoline prices is still too high. Even for an election year.
It’s not just BEVs but hybrids and higher efficiency ICE.
Canadian northern alberta oil patch is dead slow.
The biggest reason for the Oil price drop is the sluggish economy in China (and globally overall) not EVs. I'm an EV fan but we have to be honest. If the economy was doing well, and with all the OPEC+ cuts, and wars, and stuff, Oil should be in the $150-$180 range but it's less than half. Deflation forces are on the rise and it's not just in China
No dont feel sorry. The ones I talked to were in it for making money and knew there was a risk but didnt care as they were greedy.
Why doesn't Australia have oil refineries?
Australia imports about 90% of its liquid fuel and has just two operational oil refineries, and those run only thanks to federal government support. The industry has almost shut down because buying refined products abroad and importing them just in time for consumption is more economical.
Just reduce oil consumption by 30% at it’s all over for big oil.
Meantime in our 4th world country...we have no electric cars.