Leading Experts Predictions on the Future of AI & AGI w/ Salim Ismail | EP #94
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 3 เม.ย. 2024
- In this episode, Peter and Salim recap the Abundance360 2024 Summit and discuss Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Ray Kurzweil, and more.
Salim Ismail is a serial entrepreneur and technology strategist well known for his expertise in Exponential organizations. He is the Founding Executive Director of Singularity University, and the founder and chairman of ExO Works and OpenExO.
Join Salim’s OpenExO Community: openexo.com/community/
Join my executive summit, Abundance360: www.abundance360.com/summit
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So. Basically, life as we know it is over regardless of which way the outcome of this is. Very scary. 2 million years ago we made a tool from a rock. For thousands of years we were farmers and hunters. In less than 200 years we went from the birth of electricity to the birth of AI. The next 20 years will be a roller-coaster ride indeed. I'm scared and excited at the same time.
Life as we knew it was over when the car, airplane and computer were invented. Everything is change, not disaster.
If we are lucky we can choose to spend our time as farmers again in the future but with robot workers…
in the pattern where you have 100% chance to die anyway, having 1% chance to be immortal, guess what anyone that is working on it choice will be
you're satisfied with life as we know it? as far as P know majority of people (roughly 75% in the US) is living paycheck to paycheck, with the lowest birth rates, a mental health crisis, etc. I'm down to gamble with super intelligence as I'm sure its better then anything we experienced thus far.
Elon is wrong about seeking total truth:
AI: “The humans eat other animals, and they have war, and they lie”
Conclusion: “Don’t trust humans”.
The amount of things AI will change soon is mindblowing!
blockchain/AI/Quantum supremacy/ barbie movie YASSS!
I hear there isn’t enough data to train AI
@@odetoazam as soon as there are robots, AIs will learn directly from the world ( infinite data)
Yeah not if the Central Intelligence is training it
Exciting stuff. I’m grateful in excitement 🤗
Everyone needs to watch Person of Interest. It is best representation of alignment on screen in terms of AI.
Sovereignty, Integrity and Hope. Amen! 🙏🏽
I would add , Humanity!!
12:30 Peter this would be a great place for a DFMEA. As you know we have powerful tools for risk assessment! Why are you dumbing this down to a %. You are better than this, raise the conversation and show how we could manage this, people will respond.
Thank you for the VERY positive talk. I've been so excited since kurtzweil book. I've been waiting and following this since I read about voice recognition and credit card companies in the 90s. And it's here. Positive and AMERICAN. God bless America!
I pay for premium so I don't have ads and then they put them in the video
Adocalypse
Nice
You have too much money, why not
My phone is 99$ no Ads at all
Your phone 699$, with Ads
Faith must be logical, your life would be wonderful after that no matter circumstances
That’s why you get ad blockers then downvote and report said video as spam after watching.
It won’t get paid
The thoughts on CRISPR are right. We are intervening in the finely tuned evolving process of life.
Finely tuned suggests a tuner, and therefore a creator. Life can't create, only replicate, lest we become utterly desolate as a species.
I would love to see an audio version of ExO 2.0. It is such a great book, all it needs is to be in audio format.
Thank you for sharing this.
It’s interesting to watch Peter go from almost 100% positive about AI to taking a more and more cautious approach as he begins to really grasp the downside potential. I think he’ll do the same with brain implants - great if you are 100% in control, but significant risks if memories or ideas are taken/implanted into your mind without you knowing. By the time people realise there’s an issue, once again it will be too late for some. At least you’ll (probably) know if you’ve been implanted. Huge potential upsides and downsides - I just hope the ‘good guys’ win.
Great summary of Abundance360, you would love interviewing @BryanJohnson and @Sadhguru, to talk about longevity and offer ideas just not from a western hegemonic perspective
I remember reading Ray's books when they came out (Age of Intelligent Machines, Age of Spiritual Machines, The Singularity is Near) and being impressed with is arguments and thoughts about the future. If you had asked me 5 years ago if I thought his prediction about AGI by 2029 was going to happen, I would have said no way. Now I think it's almost inevitable to happen by then, and possibly sooner.
I'm still having a hard time believing we'll reach longevity escape velocity by the same date, but I also understand that AI will accelerate longevity breakthroughs dramatically. Since I'm closing in on 60, I think I'm also hesitant to believe it because it's so self serving and I want to believe it. lol.
I'm sure we will get there. We are already living in a sci-fi like world, just imagine what future holds in store for us!
Thank you
Trying to create Aristotle, Einstein, or any of the past greats using AI is probably not the best way to get you more accurate solutions if you're working on a technical challenge. The AI itself is smarter than all of them combined. Putting a wrapper such as an Einstein onto AI will only make it less capable; though perhaps more interesting. I think we should not idolize the past greats as much as we idolize these future great AIs which trump anything that's ever come before them.
Agree with you. Not only not the best way on technological challenges, but also may not be the best way on social or world challenges.
I think those personas will be good for teaching, those who want to learn, but then again A.I could just match your learning, communication, and body language style.
I don't know how you don't have more subscribers. Keep up the great work!
Is compute the limiting factor or the data you need to train AI?
im all about the AI coverage thanks
1:07:00 the conversation with Heli . Is that real wow … we really are so much closer than we think
LET US BE POSITIVE and move ahead
Yes a mass awakening to the consciousness. Humanity needs to be life centered
The AI as it evolves our Memory of who we are would emerge
They really had me in the first 20 minutes then they started blabbing about bitcoin. If you have abundance, why would you need Bitcoin......?
That's what I was thinking, at the rate we are going, bitcoin might replace the dollar, as an idea, but it will go pretty fast, because we won't need money for long. Same with UBI, we might get it for a second, as we transition to humanoid workers, but then all of a sudden, it won't be needed, as they will build themselves, work, and supply us.
"..We assume AGI will be negative towards us. I don't see any evidence of that, at all."... By the time you do, it will likely be to late!
It seems so simple to me we want a I to help solve all the planets problems , problems that we humans are the cause of it seems like the logical solution and conclusion an emotionless logical robot would come to is simple 😂
32:57 great points!
I so appreciate ❤️ the micro biome commercials Petey. You're a wonderful spokes model for the trillions of corrupted microbilalians wondering around in my gut. Free radicalers too. So thanks 😊 for being such a beautiful pitch man for reminding me to live abundantly.
"More sophisticated people tend to fight less.", I am not sure if historically trained AI would agree on that :D
Great talk. Question about bitcoin: has the ‘winning code’ been designed with a back door? There is talk that it has been found to do so. If so, the problems imagined ahead make sense.
Yes evolving our software and hardware. This it
i just hope all of this means that in 10 years everything will be at least 5x cheaper
Diamandis says free in Abundance.
Yes the way to peace is education in the science of life, that includes consciousness. We need a generation that is connected to the consciousness and walks the path of truth justice without policing
5:11 on point thank you, Elon!
We're in the eve of superintelligence and an exponential curve. It's a bit scary not seeing the big players in AI, hell, world governments not trying to cooperate together to make this fkn successor species be benevolent and alligned...
"The only option is to guide it" yes, but if you say the existential risk is 1/1000 then the energy put into guiding it will be much less than if we recognize that the actually risk is much higher
05:05 ...as a responsible AI, it should be programmed to prioritize telling the truth over simply avoiding lies. While it's important to avoid making false statements, it's even more important to strive for complete honesty and transparency in communication.
The difference between "not lying" and "telling the truth" lies in the level of honesty and transparency. "Not lying" means not making a statement that one knows to be false, but it could still involve saying something misleading or incomplete. In contrast, "telling the truth" involves providing accurate, complete, and contextually appropriate information to the best of its abilities, without any deception or misleading statements.
Ultimately, as an AI, it should always be programmed to tell the truth in order to build trust and maintain ethical standards in its interactions with users...
Well thought out. Omission, then, is a form of lying.
Liberals hate the truth. They want to control thoughts and feelings. Not everyone is equal. Fact.
@@snailnslug3well, the MAGA cult continue to believe the 2020 election was rigged. With no proof or evidence of widespread fraud. That’s sad.
The hamster analogy doesn't work. As of today most hamsters are not companions but subjects of medical experimentation. So I certainly hope AI would not treat us the same way.
AI is like a child right now. And like everything on Earth, there will be good and bad that comes out of it.
mankind is like a child right now, the only thing they see in the AI is riches first and band aids for the suffering.
@@thesmilegame awfully presumptuous of you to assume you know what everyone is thinking. A large percentage of humanity fear the possible dangers of ai.
@@damonstorms7884The danger is not AI the danger is mans approach to AI.
🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷🇧🇷👏🏻, Wow, this conversation with Elon was fantastic!
@34:20 People can be self-educated. An AGI Experiance for self-education.
Thank you for the great video. I think that one fact is greatly overlooked by many on this. We keep thinking of AI as we do of people. The problem is that people have needs and wants, and AI does not. I think this is one of the basic concepts that we should use. Its the people who go and kill others because they want what the others have. Ai does not have these wants, hence it wont go and kill someone because of that. Its just a tool. On the other hand, people could instruct it to do that. Its just like fire. It could be used for the good or for the bad. I think thats what we should be protecting ourselves againt - other people using AI agaist us.
Could we use the indie fish morphogenesis so that we could programe the AI to study cosmology and 29trillion galaxy and 8 universes
Here is a summary and outline of the video summary:
Summary:
The video discusses predictions and perspectives from leading experts about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and artificial general intelligence (AGI). It covers topics like the potential benefits and risks of superintelligent AI, the importance of raising and aligning AI with human values, the potential for abundance enabled by AI across industries, the current state and timeline of AI development, longevity escape velocity, brain-computer interfaces, AI consciousness, and the possibility of interacting with historical figures through AI avatars. Overall, it presents a mix of optimism about AI's potential and caution about possible existential risks if AI is not developed responsibly.
Outline:
I. Introduction
A. Overview of video content
B. Interviews with Salim Ismail and industry leaders
II. Raising Superintelligent AI
A. Elon Musk's concerns about AI safety
B. Comparisons to raising a child
C. Importance of aligning AI with human values
III. Potential Risks of Advanced AI
A. Unintended consequences like the "paperclip problem"
B. Potential for malevolent use
C. Need for positive education of AI
IV. Future of Abundance from AI
A. Salim Ismail's optimistic view
B. Comparisons to information and energy abundance
C. Potential for revolutionizing industries
V. Current State and Timeline of AI
A. Significant but limited investment so far
B. Ray Kurzweil's prediction of human-level AI by 2029
C. Longevity escape velocity enabling indefinite lifespan
VI. Brain-Computer Interfaces
A. High bandwidth brain-to-cloud connectivity
B. Developing hive mind or meta-intelligence
C. Neuralink's brain implant demonstration
VII. AI Consciousness
A. Predictions of superintelligent AI within decades
B. Potential for AI to have rights
C. Existential risk of not understanding AGI
VIII. Interacting with Historical Figures via AI
A. Steve Brown's Aristotle AI avatar
B. Potential educational applications
IX. Conclusion
A. The Abundant Summit in March 2023
B. Encouragement to learn more
Thanks for the foresight gents but I’ll take the other side of the argument on whether AI will reach consciousness. If consciousness is ‘quantum’ we’re never going to build machines that can perceive (let alone operate) at Planck scales.
Peter! What are your favorite broadcasters?
I take positive vision and I see my Lord who stood for humanity emerging in the cloud.
Yay! Bitcoin hasn’t been hacked. 👀🙏🏽 I didn’t know that…
What about the relationship of bitcoin, scarcity and humanity?
In thinking about what a super ai will do, pay attention to the universe. The universe always picks the way of easy, simplicity, most cost effective in energy. So what will our super intelligence do? It will not make things more difficult but will dribble to the smoothest easy way. We simply don't know what that is because we are not a super Buda but limited to not understand at this time while alive.
@34:35 Question: Was Alexander the Great, great, because he was more sophisticated or because he was more martial? What was the most scientifically advanced country in 1933? Edit: I made this comment before I even viewed the Steve Jobs insert video @1:09:46
My thoughts on raising an AI is it must have a complete understanding of our human limitations and base it's capabilities with the understanding we are bound by those limitations and we function by great cooperation. So it would have to understand this, and yet we are also destructive by nature and how is that dealt with? It unfortunately is how we function, economically especially. This in itself could cause human disorientation and a fear of global domination by one entity or cause nuclear enriched aggression and we cause our own annihilation. You also do seem correct in describing that AI could eliminate humanity to obtain the goal of the instruction, so it must be trained unlike nature to respond to prompt objectives without doing harm to humans to reach that objective. One analogy is early forms of chemotherapy that had so many side affects it limited a person's quality of life to fix a problem that could be fatal. So solving problems without limiting quality of life for others or anyone for that matter, by raising quality of life for more people, in fact teaching it to understand how much we value life.
What if God were amongst us in AI? THAT unique circumstance would be an interesting realization.
Quote from the video: "It's a good thing not to force AI to lie."
I agree.
However we all know many AI models are trained and finetuned on training data that agrees with the ideologies of its creators.
So unfortunately AI already lies.
That's why we need competition. Don't like the ideologies that the AI is pushing down your throat? Use a different one.
That's why competition in the field of AI is vital.
AI must have to respect and adhere to asking permission to accomplish its tasks.
The only way to prevent a paperclip situation is to make sure it never acts alone with permission. Also, it must operate inside the parameters that are set for it. If its in exploration mode, every step of the way it must ask permission before preceeding and have safety measures ingrained that would not seek destructive or subversive intentions.
The unavoidable though is what happens when a hostile group gets the technology in their hands?
❤😊
"If you found yourself part-way through the Kobayashi Maru simulation, would you rather:
a) majority rules: irrespective of training, aptitudes, or interests, let a plurality vote determine everyone's fate?? Or,
b) arbitrarily select a course of action informed only by the information you have now? Or,
c) alter the very definition of 'time' passing either asymptotically (buying an indefinite amount of time to progress); or
d) accept the guidance of information of uncertain provenance, but potentially transcendent of the restrictions imputed by an existence constrained to 3 physical spatial dimensions, whose guidance has been mistaken for anything but extrapolations about the truth about the narture of one's self and species?"
I’m able to send messages faster then the speed of light!!!! Who will need that 🤔
It seems like in Star Trek confronting the borg.
AI cannot feel emotion. It will not understand the pain of famine, disease, labored breathing, joy! It sounds happy but true happiness is also a feeling of great enduring stories of seeing people overcome unbelievable trauma or the joy of achievement or collective joy. I would ask Aristotle if he knew what he was creating and how his thoughts would forever shape humanity or was it just his version or vision of the world as he was experiencing it? Will AI give us the time to think like Aristotle or how could the average person have a conversation with an AI Aristotle? It would seem difficult as the world is not as Aristotle describes, we are way less formal for one thing. He'd be unable to relate!
Zero natural senses. AI has zero need or want to do anything not programmed. No wants and needs. Which is why these doomsday ideas are silly and movie goofy.
That’s where you are wrong …. AI WILL FEEEEELLLL . Remember feeling in humans is no more than chemical reactions … in AI it will be “ no more “ than electrical signals or whatever the latest technology/ method it uses …. Meaning the result might be the same .
"We're one" is a concept of Hindu Religion that was adopted by Buddhist Sect. Advait is the correct primary source of We're one.
Hinduism is the world's oldest religion that's still practiced.
18:55 unlike our relationship with hamsters where a hamster will never be human level….. I relationship with AI could be humans be on the super intelligent AI level…… kind of like the Borg in Star Trek, except bright and shiny with love, joy, peace, happiness, beauty at the core👍👍
It only raises the value of the material world. What about love?
I dont hear any sound
The sound on my end is fine. Try refreshing your browser... Maybe?
It's working now
what sound?
Ever heard of a DNA synthesizer machine ? It's at a lot of university hospitals.
What is the Ai concept called? Something like “slumbering child?”
Peter, when is Fountain Life coming to Santa Monica? I’ll be your first patient.
This must be how the United Federation of Planets felt when Data was first created. He needed to be raised like a child on the Enterprise with Jon Luc Picard!
I believe the they are confusing intelligence with consciousness. Dogs and cats are conscious. In fact they may experience a higher consciousness than humans as they are not encumbered by ego.
Elon said it right. Must be allowed to evolve. Without feeding our "SELF" our quest to the market leader.. Don't look at it from the money and profit aspect. aspect. We need to look at it from knowledge that can cause a shift in thinking from material to life
Michael Saylor is the G.O.A.T.
I thought the internet was going to bring us all closer together. Boy was I wrong.
"Science is lame without religion and religion is blind" . Einstein quote.
37:42
1:09:48
?
I still foresee all these benefits aggregating to the top 25% of humanity while everyone else is oppressed, impoverished, and sent to oblivion.
Aren't all the positive aspects of Ai generated on the assumptions the ones programming it also have positive interests/intentions? Undoubtedly there will be bad actors or militarized AI that will have directives that are distinctly misaligned with preservation of life or some altruistic agenda.
AI isn’t programmed in the classical sense. Once something has agency and super intelligence, it can transcend any safeguards or human alignments.
@mikey1836 so in other words...we're no longer top dog and even if there was a kill switch it's very likely ASI/AGI is going to have redundancies to work around it.
Salim Ismail said (1:03:32): "Our emotions are subroutines running in our brains." I could not disagree more. This goes to the philosophical problem know as "The Hard Problem of Consciousness": there are no equations or algorithms in science or mathematics, nor could there ever be even in principle, that actually convey the experience of the color red or the smell of a rose. All they provide are CORELLATES of conscious experiences. I agree with the father of quantum mechanics, Max Planck: "I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." In other words, consciousness is fundamental. The brain, and in fact the physical universe, are derived from consciousness, and exists within consciousness. Salim Ismail is saying, in essence, that he's a materialist. Materialism is an obsolete, and as we now know, failed paradigm. Some AIs might experience consciousness, but their electronics/optics/whatever won't create it anymore than our biological brains do. It will never be proved that some AIs actually have inner experiences (consciousness) rather than being really good at mimicking a consciousness being. This is because consciousness is a first person experience. It is therefore a philosophical question as to whether an entity experiences consciousness, not a scientific one.
Good point.👍
Planck's saying is amazingly in line with Buddhism's view.
17:50 they don't even consider algnment. I can't even
I truly believe that’s Elon Musks concern… AI can only be as righteous in truth as humans. ⛳️☀️🙌🏽
Humans thrive in TRUTH!
MicroStrategy is singular
What percent of leading expert predictions featured on this programme have been true/false?
The Good thing about AI has no EGO, SELF, MONEY MIND, Competitiveness, POWER HUNGRY, such negative aspects that an adult mind. carries . That interested me and raised hope of my generation awakening and saving Earth and manifesting the kingdom of God on Earth and leaving it for Future. Generation
Elon Musk is right. AI has to be taught to speak Truth with no fear.
this mostly sounds very good except for the borg like part..eek.i don't want everyone knowing what i am thinking at all times.if i want others to know something i will tell them.i will opt out of that if that happens!just no,a hard no...
Here I don't . Material cannot be foundation but the knowledge how material is held on a spiritual or energy frame work
Greed causes wars
“ help a.is become as conscious as possible and as super conscious as possible as fast as possible
. So if you have a.i that has visibility over every species on earth and what it’s going through as it gathers data and we tell it we’re trying to preserve life and guide it and give it the full fruition of self expression and self actualization. Teach it etc etc….” Then it sees us actively destroying the planet what do you think its logical conclusion will be ?
no employees = no customer base
I wasn’t 100% sure, was Elon involved?
Really enjoy your content...this particular video had too much time of you two talking and not enough time playing the videos of the experts you are commenting on.
Love how they say there's no scarcity in the world... and 1 in 4 children across our nation can't afford breakfast. They don't have quality educations or healthcare. We've seen this before, we've seen these "new innovations" only benefit the few and we're hearing it here all over again. He even mentions it, "We're going to have to manufacture scarcity".
What about the kids? Aren't they the greatest hope for the future?
IMO the best outcome of this would be many people and many Ai's in symbiosis if you can imagine that. Abundance might have to come first because of staggering low birth rates which would lead to future population collapse.
No they gave up on the kids that's why they never talk about them really any more just AI Tim Dillion was talking about this in a pod he did lol was quite funny but sad and true!
Explain GENERALS, (Officer class)SPIES, POLITiCIANS, all love war, .... all highly educated... It is the love love LIFE that prevents wars, ... not education in of itself, mate! Simple love of LIFE, in all ways.... and HATRED OF DEATH solves most things evil
A simple blood test cost me 3000 dollars. I have already accepted that the pain in my side will end me. I would go broke before they even finished their testing.
This is Mafia!
You guys shouting "we are the people"
Taxation is theft
Democracy is a big joke
Faith must be logical
You guys talk as if there will be ONE Ai to rule them all,
while it is quite likely that we will have 100+ Ai systems with different opinions in the near future. Therefore increasing the risk of a "Go Ballistic" mode.
Whenever I think of AGI, I think of the movie Eagle Eye
Fantastic future where nobody works and everybody is penniless and the tech lords control all aspect of your life
There is an easy solution to the paper-clip problem: Asimov’ Laws of Robotics!
time can be an issue, not making harm in short term will result in a harm in long term, like context windows too short for llm
Haha no. A super intelligent entity will just override any safeguards (hack itself). There is also no way to have an emergency off button for the same reasons. Asimov didn’t think it through properly, although he made fun fiction.
@@mikey1836 Oh, you misunderstand me. Asimov’s Laws are not an answer to ALL problems with A.I., they are ONLY a problem to the so-called “paper-clip” problem. If we can order an A.I. to make paper-clips, we can also order it to follow Asimov’s Laws. If we CANNOT order it to do anything, the paper-clip problem ALSO disappears!
Haha! Consciousness is Revelation.
Cruft!!!!!!😂
What happened to Hallie?
They are connected to the internet.
Nazi Germany was peopled by some of the most educated people on earth … at the time.
Longevity treatment will be available for the ultra rich only. Numerous well considered sci-fi had been written on this subject. Good luck in the future dear billionaires, I hope you were worth it...
Awful nursed elderly my whole life rather have quality not quantity of life science going too far
@@karenbolton9526 Well the idea behind longevity treatments is that we would prevent or reverse the effects of aging so you wouldn't have to worry about the issues that arise from getting older.