Yet another awesome discussion gents. Thank you as always. If a business struggles with a cash rate of 5pc, then they shouldn’t be in business. We need to stop thinking every investor should be bailed out every time they speculate. Time investors and CEOs put their big-boy pants on and stopped looking for charity. The Fed has tried MMT at the same time the government flew the fiscal helicopter far too high and as a result, the market missed out on the healthy culling of non-performers in the last cycle.
Great discussion, and excellent interview style! - ie not talking over the guests or butting in like so many hosts. Need to get Marc Faber or Rickards on as they can just talk and talk, but a lot of hosts butt in and make them lose their train of thought!
Fwiw I’m not sure we can say the fed can hike raise around 4-5% today even tho they are there . It takes around 9-12 month for those rates to take effect ? Let’s wait till summer 2023 if they still that high to acknowledge powell was correct in Thinking we could have Interest rates that high ?
QT is far more influential, for it's effect on valuations of foreign reserves and treasuries that are used for collateral, both on and off-shore. The fed's target rate is peripheral to the way the banking system functions in the real world.
Great show! An observation though; It took 1-2 years for the 1928-1929 rate hikes to filter into the economy, same with Bernanke in 05 and 06. The magnitude of rate hikes matters! This is a 2023-2024 story. Hold tight!
@@chipshiner2371 crypto ATH market cap was over $3T, so the loss of market cap in crypto alone is comparable to the total equity market cap of countries like the UK, Canada, Australia. Perhaps not systemically important, but hardly a side show.
@@ericli2936 let's hope we don't see a repeat of the 2020/21-era monetary madness! However the EU has spent over 700B euros on energy subsidies in the past year. Lagadre's new hawkishness sounds more like desperation to prevent a disorderly collapse of the Euro.
It’s because 11:24 the dollar milkshake theory. All foreign assets are going to USA equities. You should see the international flows. It’s the reason the market just won’t go down.
What is so disconcerting is how orderly the loss in equities and bonds has been and the relative equanimity in the market. No exogenous shocks? Could be that the increase was so great for the "everything bubble" that after all this the results are still nominally positive for pros and retail? This frog still hasn't felt the heat so maybe a panic in some form, sometime.
Why cant ppl just start businesses instead of investing in to stocks and bonds? Small businesses are the back bone of all economies. Your rate of return is the way u run ur business.
Small businesses appear to have been the sacrificial lamb during and after the pandemic to the corporate and political cronyism. Why would anyone invest personal savings in a business in the current environment until governments come to the realisation as to what they have done. Creativity and entrepreneurial spirit needs to be revived but we seem to be undergoing a paradigm shift in business.
U.S stocks ended higher in a choppy, preholiday session Friday as an inflation report and a raft of other data did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve would likely continue hiking intrest rates even if the economy slows down. Which means more red ink for portfolios for the first quarter of year 2023. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $250k bond/stocck portfolio
I reckon you get in touch with an investment adviser, someone who’s been active before the 08' crash and other similar crashes, that gotta be your best bet in order to profit off this recession.
I agree, I was on the sideline for awhile observing, trying to figure out the best time to get in, that was before I came by a coach, commended by a pundit on Reddit, reluctant at first but I went ahead and got in touch with the coach, long story short, it's been 3years and counting and I've made over 1.5million dollars simply by following her guidance. I took a vacation to Bahamas this summer just to reward myself a little for the consistency lol
@@legacymedia8468 Hey I'm not much of an investor, but I basically have all of my money sitting duck in my savings, been trying figure out what to put my cash into seeing inflation is at it's highest and I really would love to discuss with the coach that guides you.
@@albacus2400BC The coach that guides me is ''Sharon Louise Count'' It shouldn't be a hassle finding her seeing that she's actually quite popular, just search her name.
Thanks for this tip. Her website popped up on the first page immediately I searched her, I read through her resume and it seems pretty tight. So, I dropped a message & hopefully she replies soon.
We are much better shape than 2018?? From 8 trillion in money printing in a year, and now there is more fraud, debt, leverage and asset bubbles tha. 2008.
Better for the ones who liquidate assets at the peak of the bubble. Fed is losing its power if they don't normalize the balance sheet. I think we will see a real crisis due to the money 🖨
You'd better believe that most of what is being discussed in this interview is all speculation, guessing, assuming, and personal opinion. At the end of the day WE DON'T KNOW, we are in uncharted financial waters, even the Federal Reserve doesn't know how what they are doing will ultimately affect things, thus the abandonment of their practice of providing "forward guidance."
These guys all admit they were way wrong over the last year so why the heck are they asked back for thier forcast/opinions again? Waste of our time as this will all prove most likely misdirection again. Get a Bill Bonner or Rick Rule or Jim Rickards or Anyone who has recently been proved correct as in what they are predicting and talking about. We don't need the guys who were wrong telling us what is what... We want the Winners!
Joseph Wang lives in a Bubble. He thinks labor market is way too strong and will continue to cause inflationary pressure. He doesn’t run a SMB like me, and SMBs are not going keep bidding up labor given their razor thin margins.
So much labor hoarding has caused bloat on productivity. Not that hard to lay off the bottom performing employees while maintaining if not growing productivity in total. Joseph thinks number of workers equal GDP. Not true. And the workers who remain employed can continue to grow their real consumption to sustain healthy GDP growth.
Recession is not what he did it’s not less production it’s a lesser gdp. If technology advances and production goes up but spending goes down due to economies of scale that’s still a recession.
"implement monetary policy by shaping expectations" = the FED invents a story/narrative/does a real inception, while all the "adults" play their sheep role
Citadel has 65.7 bln $ in shares sold but not bought yet. Morgan Stanley 108 bln, Jp Morgan ^^^^, banks are leveraged up to 200/1. These figures represent today's fair value prices. When our system collapses under the weight of this debt, these stocks will imo rise 10s of thousands of percent. We need Elliot Ness in the DOJ
The consequences of globalization, are worse then they think. A recession in one country can spread to other nations. In 2008- 2009 recession in the US spread to Europe and around the world. The Chinese have already learned that a bad economy in the US can affect China and vise versa. That's why both countries are attempting to decouple now. The war in Ukraine has already affected supply chains. The idea, that tightening in the US won't hit other countries is pure fantasy. It's not just in the US that we have to worry about, it's all over the world. We are far more vulnerable than we think. Not only that, Powell might have more and more pressure put on him to pivot, if the economic conditions worsen. Elizbeth Warren is already calling for him to cut rates. I'm not as optimistic as some people about the Fed being able to beat inflation.
@@AN3MY This is not beyond the realm of possibility imo. People need to suspend disbelief. It's understandable why such rates seem 'impossible' and maybe unlikely. But if they have to, they will.
Invest in stocks is a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in stocks, it's worth it!
disappointing that a smart guy like Joseph points to the YoY inflation metrics to imply that inflation is still a problem. the YoY metrics completely miss the inflection over the past few months.
@@diamondhands1021 in what way is it important? over the past quarter inflation is tracking extremely close to the Fed's target, but because most focus on the YoY number they think prices are still rising at 7%. they're not.
@@petermerelis Probably you are correct, but the Fed finds whatever way they can to keep rates higher for longer, in their view they overeased and now they need to overtighten, that's why they front load rates so fast and completely ignore forward looking indicators, they need to orchestrate a recession as Powell confessed, that's why they are tricking the herd with YoY inflation and all other garbage
Mmm I think the month over month on literally a ton of different are still up .6% month over month. Lots of food, lots of rent, electricity. Things that people cant really cut back on. .6% is annualized to 7.4%. so I hear this all the time, it's the month over month that really matters. Well yeah and the month over month is still really fucking high lol.
Recency bias on long bonds. You don’t buy long bonds at 0% Fed funds unless you need stable collateral to leverage ie pension fund and social security. When the fed raises to 5.25% that’s a 5.25% risk free return. Historical market return is 7-8% not 12% like after 2008 and return to the mean tells me that long bonds will outperform equities in the next 10 years s. I’ll take long bonds close to 5% when we get there. And my short bonds will mature at 4.75% and easily beat the market. Bonds are here to stay and they outperform most equities.
The people who issued the debt at 1.5 percent for twenty years are losing money. Who are they and how does this affect them? Are they pension funds like teacher’s pension funds? Someone is getting screwed here. It would be nice if corporations allowed more vacation and sick time. People who are older like more vacation time. But in USA 10 days including sick days is typical. I feel that’s why many people take early retirement.
Fantastic podcast, deep analysis, clean info, no bs
One of the best interviewers in all finance media
Good discussion boys!👍
Thanks for the Christmas present! Happy holidays, Merry Christmas, and happy new year! :)
George Gammon mentioned this video in a Rebel Capitalist Live stream today. I dont comment here much but figured that was note worthy.
I'll be commenting here more now, thanks Blockworks
not much difference btwn a "macro community" & a "NFT community" - hahaaa, they got u!
@@1ntrcnnctr608 I'm not here for NFTs, I see very little use case in then. But I do see other applications I don't think others do.
Yes, I agree with Jack: the Fed's balance sheet is not really moving.
Yet another awesome discussion gents. Thank you as always. If a business struggles with a cash rate of 5pc, then they shouldn’t be in business. We need to stop thinking every investor should be bailed out every time they speculate. Time investors and CEOs put their big-boy pants on and stopped looking for charity. The Fed has tried MMT at the same time the government flew the fiscal helicopter far too high and as a result, the market missed out on the healthy culling of non-performers in the last cycle.
Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make over $22,000 every single week.
That's awesome!!! I know nothing about investment and I'm keen on getting started. What are your strategies?
I'm also a new subscriber of Mrs Arianna Simpson coaching program and I'm so excited took a positive turn by earning over $10k biweekly
Mrs Arianna Simpson has aided so many newbies. I made over $74k with some amazing gains in the market, her pattern are very lucrative
I've really heard a lot about Mrs Arianna Simpson! How do i connect with her?
@@kimberlyanson1631 Seeking her contact info
Thank🍁you for all your great work this year. Blessings for 2023.
Thank you for another great show!!
Wishing you 3 guys and your family much health for 2023!!
Great insights, thank you very Much.
Awesome podcast!
Great discussion. Would help if you can recap some of the discussion points to break it down for the average person.
Great discussion, and excellent interview style! - ie not talking over the guests or butting in like so many hosts. Need to get Marc Faber or Rickards on as they can just talk and talk, but a lot of hosts butt in and make them lose their train of thought!
Fed guys been right all year . When he talks I 👂
Fwiw I’m not sure we can say the fed can hike raise around 4-5% today even tho they are there .
It takes around 9-12 month for those rates to take effect ?
Let’s wait till summer 2023 if they still that high to acknowledge powell was correct in Thinking we could have Interest rates that high ?
You are ignoring the !omg LAG! Good grief?
QT is far more influential, for it's effect on valuations of foreign reserves and treasuries that are used for collateral, both on and off-shore. The fed's target rate is peripheral to the way the banking system functions in the real world.
Having trouble making out what the bloke with the mustach says.
Great show! An observation though; It took 1-2 years for the 1928-1929 rate hikes to filter into the economy, same with Bernanke in 05 and 06. The magnitude of rate hikes matters! This is a 2023-2024 story. Hold tight!
Things are so bad people are buying doordash and groceries on credit. We are at a contradity of wave top of biblical proportions
Great episode! I'd only disagree with the point that nothing broke this year, because something big did break this year - crypto
Crypto market cap 800 billion. NYSE 26.2 trillion. US bond market 46 trillion. Crypto is a side show.
@@chipshiner2371 crypto ATH market cap was over $3T, so the loss of market cap in crypto alone is comparable to the total equity market cap of countries like the UK, Canada, Australia. Perhaps not systemically important, but hardly a side show.
Not too many times in history so many stupid ppl had money to invest either. Don't count on crypto to run it's normal cycle.
@@ericli2936 let's hope we don't see a repeat of the 2020/21-era monetary madness! However the EU has spent over 700B euros on energy subsidies in the past year. Lagadre's new hawkishness sounds more like desperation to prevent a disorderly collapse of the Euro.
$3T globally is small
I am tired of hearing people calling for a crash, they all are projecting and saying the same thing
Fluffy kitten videos that way 👉
It’s because 11:24 the dollar milkshake theory.
All foreign assets are going to USA equities. You should see the international flows. It’s the reason the market just won’t go down.
Where can we see the international flows?
T he leveled part of the economy and those who bid up housing prices need to feel the pain.
Several more things will break and The Fed still won't pivot! Go J Go!
What is so disconcerting is how orderly the loss in equities and bonds has been and the relative equanimity in the market. No exogenous shocks? Could be that the increase was so great for the "everything bubble" that after all this the results are still nominally positive for pros and retail? This frog still hasn't felt the heat so maybe a panic in some form, sometime.
Excellent, loved the great insight, cheers
Why cant ppl just start businesses instead of investing in to stocks and bonds? Small businesses are the back bone of all economies. Your rate of return is the way u run ur business.
Small businesses appear to have been the sacrificial lamb during and after the pandemic to the corporate and political cronyism. Why would anyone invest personal savings in a business in the current environment until governments come to the realisation as to what they have done. Creativity and entrepreneurial spirit needs to be revived but we seem to be undergoing a paradigm shift in business.
U.S stocks ended higher in a choppy, preholiday session Friday as an inflation report and a raft of other data did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve would likely continue hiking intrest rates even if the economy slows down. Which means more red ink for portfolios for the first quarter of year 2023. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $250k bond/stocck portfolio
I reckon you get in touch with an investment adviser, someone who’s been active before the 08' crash and other similar crashes, that gotta be your best bet in order to profit off this recession.
I agree, I was on the sideline for awhile observing, trying to figure out the best time to get in, that was before I came by a coach, commended by a pundit on Reddit, reluctant at first but I went ahead and got in touch with the coach, long story short, it's been 3years and counting and I've made over 1.5million dollars simply by following her guidance. I took a vacation to Bahamas this summer just to reward myself a little for the consistency lol
@@legacymedia8468 Hey I'm not much of an investor, but I basically have all of my money sitting duck in my savings, been trying figure out what to put my cash into seeing inflation is at it's highest and I really would love to discuss with the coach that guides you.
@@albacus2400BC The coach that guides me is ''Sharon Louise Count'' It shouldn't be a hassle finding her seeing that she's actually quite popular, just search her name.
Thanks for this tip. Her website popped up on the first page immediately I searched her, I read through her resume and it seems pretty tight. So, I dropped a message & hopefully she replies soon.
Yo, is MUFG = Motha Freakin Gangsta? I am in!
We are much better shape than 2018?? From 8 trillion in money printing in a year, and now there is more fraud, debt, leverage and asset bubbles tha. 2008.
Better for the ones who liquidate assets at the peak of the bubble. Fed is losing its power if they don't normalize the balance sheet. I think we will see a real crisis due to the money 🖨
You'd better believe that most of what is being discussed in this interview is all speculation, guessing, assuming, and personal opinion. At the end of the day WE DON'T KNOW, we are in uncharted financial waters, even the Federal Reserve doesn't know how what they are doing will ultimately affect things, thus the abandonment of their practice of providing "forward guidance."
But we can use economics to understand the most likely probabilities.
@@tastypymp1287Yes, that true, even though probabilities is guessabilities spelled differently.
@Comment 22 No it's not. That's your sophistry speaking.
These guys all admit they were way wrong over the last year so why the heck are they asked back for thier forcast/opinions again? Waste of our time as this will all prove most likely misdirection again.
Get a Bill Bonner or Rick Rule or Jim Rickards or Anyone who has recently been proved correct as in what they are predicting and talking about.
We don't need the guys who were wrong telling us what is what... We want the Winners!
Jim Rickards has been wrong for years like David Stockman....
Joseph Wang lives in a Bubble. He thinks labor market is way too strong and will continue to cause inflationary pressure. He doesn’t run a SMB like me, and SMBs are not going keep bidding up labor given their razor thin margins.
And it’s not that hard to cut down on labor given many employees are not that productive and still achieve same goal rather than bidding up
So much labor hoarding has caused bloat on productivity. Not that hard to lay off the bottom performing employees while maintaining if not growing productivity in total. Joseph thinks number of workers equal GDP. Not true. And the workers who remain employed can continue to grow their real consumption to sustain healthy GDP growth.
Recession is not what he did it’s not less production it’s a lesser gdp. If technology advances and production goes up but spending goes down due to economies of scale that’s still a recession.
"implement monetary policy by shaping expectations" = the FED invents a story/narrative/does a real inception, while all the "adults" play their sheep role
Citadel has 65.7 bln $ in shares sold but not bought yet. Morgan Stanley 108 bln, Jp Morgan ^^^^, banks are leveraged up to 200/1. These figures represent today's fair value prices. When our system collapses under the weight of this debt, these stocks will imo rise 10s of thousands of percent. We need Elliot Ness in the DOJ
The consequences of globalization, are worse then they think. A recession in one country can spread to other nations. In 2008- 2009 recession in the US spread to Europe and around the world. The Chinese have already learned that a bad economy in the US can affect China and vise versa. That's why both countries are attempting to decouple now. The war in Ukraine has already affected supply chains.
The idea, that tightening in the US won't hit other countries is pure fantasy. It's not just in the US that we have to worry about, it's all over the world. We are far more vulnerable than we think.
Not only that, Powell might have more and more pressure put on him to pivot, if the economic conditions worsen. Elizbeth Warren is already calling for him to cut rates. I'm not as optimistic as some people about the Fed being able to beat inflation.
They ain't gonna pivot.
Inflation is a paradigm shift.
Expect deflation.
10Y yield at 5% in 2023, no fucking way Joseph. You were right once for 2022. That's enough
You bet it will be. Even more.
8%+. Mark my prediction.
clowns :)
@@AN3MY This is not beyond the realm of possibility imo. People need to suspend disbelief. It's understandable why such rates seem 'impossible' and maybe unlikely.
But if they have to, they will.
George is out of his league
Invest in stocks is a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in stocks, it's worth it!
That's great! may I ask who's your portfolio manager?
Is she on youtube, please how do I find her?
*TERESA JENSEN WHITE,* that's her official page name you can do a web search to get in touch with her
"Good things come to people who wait, but better things come to those who go out and get them." -Anonymous
Empty platitude.
Tldr: have fun being poor
microstrategy should change their name to macrostrategy cuz they're the pace car for the next decade. mark it baby
Can you guys do a vid explaining SPVs?
We r fkd
lol
Wang has been wrong quite a bit in 2022
Blah blah blah….you three are soooo lost. Good thing u guys just pontificate and don’t actually manage money
Not an argument.
Latest unemployment print implies employment is starting to react. This could get the Fed to pivot sooner.
disappointing that a smart guy like Joseph points to the YoY inflation metrics to imply that inflation is still a problem. the YoY metrics completely miss the inflection over the past few months.
YoY inflation is important too, that's what the Fed is paying attention to and what their Dot plot projects
@@diamondhands1021 in what way is it important? over the past quarter inflation is tracking extremely close to the Fed's target, but because most focus on the YoY number they think prices are still rising at 7%. they're not.
My bonds should do better this year. Last year was a terrible one for me.
@@petermerelis Probably you are correct, but the Fed finds whatever way they can to keep rates higher for longer, in their view they overeased and now they need to overtighten, that's why they front load rates so fast and completely ignore forward looking indicators, they need to orchestrate a recession as Powell confessed, that's why they are tricking the herd with YoY inflation and all other garbage
Mmm I think the month over month on literally a ton of different are still up .6% month over month. Lots of food, lots of rent, electricity. Things that people cant really cut back on. .6% is annualized to 7.4%. so I hear this all the time, it's the month over month that really matters. Well yeah and the month over month is still really fucking high lol.
bonds did not go down..short term.bonds and money market huge returns. nobody should ever buy long term bonds ever.
Recency bias on long bonds. You don’t buy long bonds at 0% Fed funds unless you need stable collateral to leverage ie pension fund and social security. When the fed raises to 5.25% that’s a 5.25% risk free return. Historical market return is 7-8% not 12% like after 2008 and return to the mean tells me that long bonds will outperform equities in the next 10 years s. I’ll take long bonds close to 5% when we get there. And my short bonds will mature at 4.75% and easily beat the market. Bonds are here to stay and they outperform most equities.
Nothing happened?? Nasdaq down 30% home sales cut in half!
The people who issued the debt at 1.5 percent for twenty years are losing money. Who are they and how does this affect them? Are they pension funds like teacher’s pension funds? Someone is getting screwed here. It would be nice if corporations allowed more vacation and sick time. People who are older like more vacation time. But in USA 10 days including sick days is typical. I feel that’s why many people take early retirement.
Yes more retire early now that the see so many older dying after the so-called Accidental release of the virus
@@rejectionistmanifesto8836 Misinformation.
This is the point most miss. If you've bought long term debt @ 0.25% you'd be real pi$$Ed right now.
@@tastypymp1287 ??