Slightly shorter one today - decided it simply wasn't practical to fit NATO, Russia and Ukraine all into the same video without blowing out the duration significantly so ultimately decided to split them up. Also, quick blooper of the episode. I believe I say at one point russia invaded Crimea in 2008. obviously it was 2014. Blooper over. Going to use the pinned comment this week to talk briefly about the data used and my philosophy on using it. In this episode I rely on NATO's recently published defence expenditure estimates. Looking at those estimates you may (if you spend way too much time looking at defence budgets) see some items that look a tad strange. These figures won't align with estimates like SIPRI figures that try to be most holistic for example, or some ways in which countries list and bundle expenditures domestically. Just as when I use MB2022 figures for equipment counts, there are some cases where I would come up with a different figure if generating it myself from scratch. As with MB however, the value of the NATO figures is consistency. They allow for the comparison of many countries using a common set of definitions over time. It may not be perfect, but it allows good time series analysis and more like-for-like comparisons than if we tried to use customised figures for each country and year. I hope that explains why I try and focus on using data sets with wide coverage and am nervous about making custom changes or corrections even when I think they might otherwise be called for. Thanks for your support as always and hope you enjoyed the episode!
Hey Perun mate it’s me again, you’ve been vary busy so good on ya but I would like to ask about what you think or if you’d make a video on AI for military purposes. Check out this video for an AI Los Alamos th-cam.com/video/7Aa0iLxDY8Q/w-d-xo.html
Hey Perun, any plans to cover the Russian disinformation space again as it regards to aid in Ukraine? Would love to see you breakdown all foreign aid to Ukraine, how it works, who pays for it. whats in said packages and ultimately dismantle the bullshit arguments you hear from the Right here in America as well as Russia
‘We really should talk about the Arctic’, yes, yes please! I’d love to hear your analysis on what’s foreseeable *at the mo, with all caveats attached.. Cheers mate, brilliant work and perfect pearlers, laughed and learned Sweet as 👍🇦🇺👏
To your point on bureaucracy in procurement: "In some countries that wasnt a titanic barrier; in others, it was Germany," made me first wince in pain and then chuckle at how accurate it was.
As a German I wince when we pay for systems that don't work, and bureaucracy plays a role in this. But bureaucracy is also necessary to check that Rheinmetall isn't just pocketing money for 10-year-contracts that make no sense 3 years down the line.
@eljanrimsa5843 That's very much true: some oversight is needed and I understand why bureaucracy exists, but in Germany it's often ridiculous, from what I've seen and what I've read. There's also definitely some arbitrary overreach from the Ämter sometimes, like how is showcased in some of the satire I like to watch. The whole system could definitely use an overhaul.
Only it isn't funny and people are dying in Ukraine because Germany couldn't face it's military weakness for a year and pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine.
@@eljanrimsa5843 Watch Perun's other videos..... checking every year and second guessing every decision on a 12 month cycle...... for multi year projects...... how is that working out for Germany? (clue: Absurdly badly)
@@occamraiser > "pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine" Why do you claim lies? Are you pushing Russian propaganda? Germany has been weighing every decision a bit longer than it should have, but it has been one of Ukraine's main helpers from the beginning. Among the weapons that Germany sent in 2022, were Gepard, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Iris-T, bridge-laying tanks, all with unique capabilities. More than a million Ukrainian refugees live in Germany. Germany has been crucial in providing financial aid and coordinating the EU response.
"buying things that explode to buying things that deliver things that explode to things that need exploding" - one of the best ways of describing artillery I have ever heard.
Another Perun pearl. The man could become a stand-up anyday! Personally I looking forward to 'Perun World Tour- Military procurement - a funny business. Coming to a potential battlefield near you.' I want a front row seat.
@@behemoth9543 Yeah, once you get a strong military your borders are usually secure. But now you have a lot of people with guns that are already inside your borders. And if you start making decisions that they do not agree with they might start demonstrating their dissatisfaction with quite explosive results.
@@Adept893Niger is a bit more complicated, that's more corruption. Because the president of Niger was able to increase its economy and improve the country.
@perun I’m in Poland at the moment and the polish armed forces day parade was massive. It was there largest parade since the end of the Cold War and there was the K2 and K9 rolling down the street was crazy. Thanks for all that you do.
Well, the choice you DO have in a democracy is to inform you member of parlament, that you want him to change it, if he wants you vote next time. Just a discrete suggestion.
@@christiandauz3742 French speaking Belgians, just like NOT all Russian speaking Ukrainians are pro-Russia, right. And the American are not under the British crown, thought they claim to speak English, right.
In 2021, I would never have guessed that I would spend an hour every week watching a PowerPoint presentation on defense economics. Yet here I am, and here I will be. It is both a professionally edifying and personally rewarding expenditure of time. Bravo Perun, and keep up the good work.
An hour of slide show is easy to digest when the topic is relevant, well delivered and sprinkled with bone dry humor that hit like a ton of bricks when you least expect it.
Who else can take defense spending as a topic and turn into just short of an hour of an interesting, informative information? I always look forward to my Sunday morning Perun PowerPoint because I always come away better informed and a little smarter. As always, thank you, sir!
In his autobiography covering The War Years, Churchill discussed this very topic extensively. In short, rearmament in a democracy is a frustratingly slow, multi year process. In the first few years you spend a lot of money and get almost no output. That’s where the West is at right now.
After a long period of low investment, initial rearmament costs are high and produce little visible benefit because you are not only increasing stock but are having to catch up with new strategic and technical developments (I e. monoplanes for biplanes, carriers for battleships, gun-tractors for horses.)
I'm not so sure 'democracy' is the correct descriptor. I'd probably go with 'modern industrialized state.' Or at the least, a state that requires modern industry to arm itself, whether the industry that does so is domestic or not.
"It's the ultra premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into the driveway a pico second after you click the order confirm button." Perun is the GOAT. THE GOAT.
Mate, I imagine you've heard by now that Russia's lunar probe just crashed into the moon about two hours ago. Apparently Roscosmos thought they had a 50/50 chance of landing the probe as they have been cut off from Western space technology and a success was to be hailed as "Russia not needing Western tech, screw those sanctions!". It's a pretty amazing fall-from-grace for Roscosmos.
it actually crashed? i thought they were having some technical difficulties. . but it would be both awesome and sad(for science) if it did crash, especially after what a douche that director of Roscosmos turned out to be, declaring that russia should nuke everyone over their failed bullshit in ukraine
I'm a published author. And I absolutely live for my weekend writing sessions. But when Perun clicks in, I develop an acute writers block! Can't help it. It must be something psychological.
34:47 Canada: "The nation's military usually doesn't get massive international praise for it's defense procurement." Understatement of the year. The procurement specialists in Ottawa are underfunded, overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.
The whole Canadian military is : ''overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.'' , at some point Ottawa must stop depicting our military as a useless waste of money. We need our troops to be proud again.
Since 1973 Canada's defence spending exceeded 2% of GDP in only 5 years ('83 to '87 inclusive) - Nato's worst sponger. And it was just barely more than 2% in those 5 years. Five decades of under investment will take a long time to overcome, and Trudeau appears to have no interest to address the chronic shortfalls.
@gagamba9198 Well, even in the deep of the Afghan war (2009), Harper asked the CAF to return 200M $+, so to be fair, it is hardly a Trudeau problem. It has been a constant fact since at least 1993 and Chretien's government.
As a Dane, and thus a Scandinavian, I would have loved to shake your hand and express my gratitude for all the insights you share every week! I've been following the channel since the war broke out and it's been an educational, humbling and often humorous experience! =) I really hope you enjoyed your stay, while it lasted, and I look forward to the video next week.
I love the comment he made on how quickly Poland and South Korea created their arms partnership. "It's the ultimate premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into your driveway a picosecond after you hit the order confirm button." Suck on that, Jeff Bezos.
14:55 Lithuania mentioned. We've been steadily increasing our budget since Crimea 2014- 320 Million euros 2023- 2 Billion euros With the jump of our budget since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, we've rushed our projects like Himars (Delivery date 2025 instead of 2027) Started projects we only planned to start in the 2030's, like our first Tank battalion since the pre occupation days of 1939. (The Lithuanian defense ministry has allready sent a letter of intent to German manfucturers for the Leopard 2a8 tank, planned to be around 55 units). And many more examples like this. Love your content, keep it up!
Indeed. Hopefully we get our division fully set up, HQ unit has already been formed, just might take a while, considering how slowly the Fusilier battalion is being formed and that was started before the decision to form the division was taken. Definitely a country that deserves a deeper dive imo.
I've learned so much in the last year and a half from Perun. While I'm crushed at the circumstances of this channel turning to this sort of content in beyond grateful for every video that is released.
Couldn't agree more. Sad, black background, but bright stars of knowledge and new insight. I often wonder if that is why he chose a black background? Not to appear TOO frivolous, with his wit? Just a thought.
Perun, I hope you get proper pay for your efforts. Your analysis and gathering and explaining of hard to get by information is extremely helpful in trying to navigate this fast changing world. Big thanks from Norway!
I know of at least 2 British members of the armed forces using PERUN videos in offical logistic and procurement presentations in the UK MOD( Im not going to get into more specifics as its a small world)
Something to take into account is that NATO has loses from equipment _being donated to Ukraine,_ but Russia is suffering a lot more equipment losses from that donated NATO equipment _being used on them by Ukrainians._ So the NATO equipment is doing its designed purpose.
True equipment losses and casualty figure have not been released for us to consider, either by either the Russians or the West. What basis are you making your statement?
sorta? i mean the designed purpose is to either end the war or force russia out? equipment is a resource. tech neither side is accomplishing its designed purpose by expending that resource. Also it's naive to think that NATO defense contractors really care to end the war or not, this war is very lucrative for NATO weapons makers and these people have a outsized influence in how long the war goes on and how much money they can make. Really no side is achieving its "announced or implied" aim yet. Both side are just bleeding funds from each others citizens taxes.
Main reason why Baltic countries gave as much as they did. Like Estonia giving away all available towed-artillery pieces. Thats THE reason we had them. And UA needed it for that exact purpose. So a win-win.
Its not so much that russia is dying because of the weapones but rather because of the meat wave tactics they use , you are going to lose many one way or another
It kinda makes me worried. We had similar situation before (36-39). Did not end up well. It looks like we are preparing for some kind of deluge in like next 5-10 years.
@@zbigniewmalec4816worried how? orders not coming through before something big can happen? yah I have feeling too something is in works, maybe all over world or close to, multiple continents simultaneously.
@@effexon in 38-39 Poland was spending considerable amount of budget for military with the aim to be ready in 1942. Did not work out. Some of the current purchases seems forced - why to emergency buy k9, why not invest in increased capacity for ahs krab. It's just couple of years of difference.
@@zbigniewmalec4816ah good detail. hopefully none of that will be needed, but I see your point, looks a bit panicy move. glad ukraine had plenty of equipment albeit soviet era, in stocks that they could repel first weeks without western help. but that also speaks how much they had. Im not aware why those decisions were made, many times future politics and relations between countries play into it, even with time delay/cost inferiority risk. in these matters us civilians are often 2-3 years delay blindsighted from all details agreed between leaders.
@@zbigniewmalec4816 The difference is that we are currently preparing well and we will be ready before Russia can rebuild their military. If they ever can before they collapse.
Czech here - our country in last month or so passed into law that military spending will always be 2% of GDP. So it's not just one time thing increase, but long time which will allow to better plan and alocate funds. We are now in the process of acquiring several dozens of Leopard 2s, 246 CV 90 IFVs and 24 F-35s, not mentioning other things like expanding the army personnel in coming years. We are small county but we are finally doing our part and I am proud of us.
The very best analysis of anything anywhere is consistently provided by Perun! All of journalism should take note. Thank You for your superb effort and resulting product.
As always a presentation of the highest quality, Perun. I am glad, that you have enjoyed your time in Scandinavia. We look forward to your next visit 😊
I have talked to some people of the royal Dutch navy and especially those who work in research, and they have said that since the war in Ukraine, their limit is time and not money. This wasn't the case last 15 years.
@@paulbeesley8283The one problem with time is that you cannot spend it then earn it back like with money. We've wasted a few too many decades not spending wisely in the west.
it looks we are in 1914 to 1915 of WW1 timescale... then in 1916 big battles, 1917 even bigger battles, with new tanks and planes. iirc nobody talks of 1915 WW1 context... and 2023 seems that way... just slow grinding, no major victories. all to prepare of course, no work, no gain.
@@effexon In 1915, armies were still getting used to the new realites (the main one being that it would NOT, be over by Christmas,) just as now, we seem to be getting used to the old realites (including, it will NOT, be over by Christmas.)
"....one of those people who can derive joy from spreadsheets" this is why I love your style ( just one small example). Not just content that makes one think one learned quite a bit (yes, I do), but such a great way of presenting. I even started liking the Ozzy accent.
I like your sarcasm. 16:02 Ukraine getting the good stuff - from the post Disco era and the era of dial-up internet, finally. 18:36 US Army replacing old cars with new ones 19:02 Poland getting the Korean delivery in what in military procurement terms could be considered a picosecond… 26:04 actual increase in equipment spending in 2023 - pretty sobering
To be fair, post Disco era to era of dial up internet actually have the coolest stuff in modern human history so far. Stuff that you can actually own, long lasting given proper maintenance, and user repairable!
Regarding the Finnish defence spenditure. My understading is that a lot of the increase is about us getting the new F35s. We bought the current F18s in the 90s, they are reaching the end of their service life and needed to be replaced around this time. The process of procuring them was started already before the current Russian invasion and was going to take place regardless of the invasion, so it shouldn't be viewed as a response to the invasion.
No. It is from the four new corvets we are currently building. We haven't yet started to pay for the F-35's, but we are currently paying for the ships.
@@Pikkabuu No, it's the F-35. There's 1,41B € budget line in the 2023 budget for that alone. edit. my bad, that has been in the budget for the last couple of years already. In 2022 the F-35 procurement was 1,52B, and in 2021 1,48B. The increase from 2022 to 2023 is in the other procurement budget line.
And what 'defense' did the f-18s accomplish? What enemy was repelled? Answer: the same 'defense' that the f35s will. No defense, no enemy.. Russia was as likely to attack Finland as it was to land on Mars. So that tax money that would have gone to social services and infrastructure for , well, the Finnish people, went instead to US defense contractors. "Thank you Finland, for my new pool and Jaguar!" (P.S. the F35 is a Mithril plated piece of crap. See: "Ongoing headaches with F-35 fighter jets are rippling through the rest of the US military's combat aircraft fleet" - Insider Magazine
Finland is spending on F-35, new multifunction corvettes for the navy, Davids Sling anti-air systems from Israel, new anti-ship missiles from Israel, new rifles for troops, anti-artillery radar systems and increasing the ammunition reserves.
It feels wrong to say it this way; but this one is the best in a while for me (wrong because they're all excellent)! It's so interesting to learn about how the decadent mountain is shifting it's gears. Biased being from Norway, but I would LOVE an Arctic episode. Keep up the great work! Edit: When data is available, a deep dive in Ukraine's MIC would be even better.
19:29 It's as if the factory simply erased two first letters from our tanks' destinations and turned "buyer: ROKA" into "buyer: PolsKA". Hence Korean camo paint on the Polish K9 deliveries. We are impatient people addicted to overnight shipping and 30-minute food deliveries.
Reminds me of the shiny American planes in WW2. The time for the paint to dry during manufacturing was considered excessive. Similarly, the paint was already on the K9s, and repainting would TAKE TOO LONG!
I use to work in munition manufacturing. I could take months just to set-up the manufacturing line; installing the equipment, testing of all the cameras and arrays of censors with the lab. pre-prod. The wrong white paint may send an order back to the factory for...°°°°°°. Training the team that is going to be on the line and the new guys and gales hired because of increase in production. it takes time to start the machine safely for the workers and the end users. Everything has to be tested. Samples during production have to be fired, shells have to be X-rayed 100/100. Every steps of the production has tests over tests... Plus, government contract are usually in march. But when it is started, when the 3 shifts are rolling out the iron rain out the gate.... its scary to see how good we got at this in a century.
To add to those accurate observations, my experience in the sector (from a few decades ago) is that QA is beyond anything you would have found back in the day, and rejections could occur on the most miniscule superficial imperfection.
sandbagging the baseline is one of the big issues with a lot of science papers. a 200% increase in effectiveness sounds great, but when you learn that it went from working in .0001% of cases to working in .0003% of cases it sounds WAY less meaningful.
In scientific papers this is not a big issue because this kind of information is provided. And if you have to run your particle accelerator 1,000,000 times to make one observation on average, than an improved method to run it 300,000 times for one observation on average is a pretty big deal.
This reminds me of a line about how rapidly Japan's economy was growing in the late 19th-early 20th centuries in comparison with the UK and USA. Namely, that it looked great because Japan cheated by starting with a neo-paleolithic baseline.
@@eljanrimsa5843 true, more referencing to medical fields with drug testing that can see tiny effects that then get exaggerated to the public, but in reality, barely have a detectable effect above placebo.
Polish Armed Forces are undergoing a truly full scale transformation. It is worth to mention that on top of new procurements the formation of our 5th division (called 1st Infantry Division) has recently began, and there are deep organisational and doctrinal reforms on the way. By 2026 we will see the first real effects of the transformation, when the first orders will be finished. Our artillery and tank arsenals will undergo a generational change. Old ex-Soviet 2S1 howitzers, PT-91 MBT's (basically a deep T-72M1 modernisation) and the rest of BM-21 Grad will be phased out of service. Instead, our artillery will consist of 212 K9A1 howitzers, 180 AHS Krab howitzers, 120 Rak 120mm mortars, of course provided that we won't order more of them, aswell as 288 K239 Chunmoo, each with twice as much firepower as US Himars, which we will have at least 20. I'm not even counting less important systems we will most likely still have in service, namely WR-40/RM-70 MLRS (around 100 pieces) and Dana howitzers (around 100 pieces). Our tank force will be made out of 366 Abrams MBT's (250 M1A2 SepV3 and 116 M1A1 FEP), 180 K2 MBT's and 233 Leopard 2 MBT's (2A5 and 2PL). Effectively the most potent artillery and tank force in the EU. And don't even think it's over with the shopping spree. In the coming months we will place another order on Rosomak APC's, with order on possibly around 400 of them, and we still wait for an order on Himars MLRS and Apache helicopters. That's for the most recent plans, but in 2025 we can expect the beggining of mass production of K2PL MBT in Poland, aswell as the new heavy infantry fighting vehicle, of which 700 units will be procured. That's on top of light and amphibious IFV Borsuk of which 1400 units are on order. We also still await for an order for another two squadrons of fighters, we also wait for light tank destroyers with Brimstone missiles and new submarines. So yeah. Poland will have her borders. Even if on the last map Humanity ever draws.
Poland knows what’s at stake with what’s going on in Ukraine. Unfortunately some NATO countries (especially Germany) are still dragging their feet expecting things can return to normal with Russia.
@@ElTigre12024 Precisely, but it's not only about securing our independence. We are way more ambitious than that. Poland aims to become a provider, and not a receiver, of security in the Central and Eastern Europe, willing to take the lead in the security architecture on NATO's eastern flank. Poland wants to increase her international position this way and end with peripheral status of our region. The ultimate goal is to achieve the position of a regional power and a leader of smaller Central and Eastern European countries, and thanks to combined economic and military power, finally release the true potential of the region.
@@daliborbobr6331 The situation is not as bad as some people try to portrait it is. In reality of course there are some problems with democracy in Poland, but the current ruling party is slowly losing power, and what they currently have is nothing compared to extent of power in hands of Victor Orban or Erdogan. We have new elections this Autumn, and it is already certain that the PiS party will not be able to achieve majority in Polish Sejm. I'm not concerned.
One thing not mentioned was a number of months back the USA reexamined their funding to Ukraine and found that the USA was putting replacement costs on the books and not actual costs so it was readjusted and there was additional money for Ukraine in the millions of US Dollars so there's that.
Come on this was broad day corruption. How can the US with all the accounting software and best universities in the world claim to make mistakes at the highest level ...we ain't stupid...this war is all about corruption in the west for the politicians no wonder they don't want to talk peace
Billions, not millions. As an accountant I was hardly surprised but it looks sus as hell to a lot of people. Which makes me point out how often the Pentagon flubs audits in normal circumstances.
As a Canadian, I had no idea how bad our military was. And with the state of the world right now, we better get to work to build it up and get ready for battle! Thank you 💛 Perun for your excellent report today. Much appreciated Sir!!!
Take note of Putin's longer term fantasy. Control the Arctic, and recover Alaska. It would be wise to, at least take note of, the spew in the Russian media.
The comment about scale of large nations really hits home. Imagine starting a game of Civilisation. In the beginning one warrior is an enormous 3 turn investment. When you're empire starts to spread, every city producing a warrior is enough to conquer the entire world if it was still Turn 1.
It's one of the reasons why the difference between immortal and deity difficulty AI is so massive: Deity AI get to start with 2 settlers/cities instead of 1. You'd be surprised how much of a difference that makes.
Unfortunately Civilization doesn't model the other half of that equation. As a polity grows in size, its productivity increases exponentially. But its upkeep costs also increase exponentially. So every polity will naturally grow until it reaches an equilibrium between productivity and upkeep. Developments, discoveries and inventions can all boost productivity or reduce upkeep, pushing that equilibrium higher. But then you need more and more educated people to maintain all your advanced infrastructure and administration, which means you need to invest in education, which means more of your productivity tied up in even more upkeep, and... Basically, it's not as simple as "small country weak, big country strong". It really depends on how much of its production a country can actually direct towards military action, without starving other areas of its economy, or actively cannibalizing itself.
@@tbotalpha8133 Not just an issue with civ, every strategy game I've played is eager to reward expansion but doesn't deal with the increased burden of that expansion leading to simplistic go wide strategies. I'd like to find one where that isn't the case.
@@hungrymusicwolf If you double your ability every turn, then the one that starts with 2 will always be twice as strong. Early on, where hit-odds can still fluke the individual skirmishes, that can still be manageable, but when it's 512 vs 1024 the averages starts kicking your butt to a pulp with boring predictability.
I would love a video about Greece, its procurement programs and its geopolitical maneuvers will propably be a nice topic, from the treaty with france and the close relations with the us to the opposite relations between the country and turkey
Back to basics episode. But so good at getting the basics right. This is the stuff that got me hooked on the channel and brings me back with analysis at a level I just can’t get anywhere else
Top quality talk! Ye wouldn't get it at a university.. Perun is definitely a born presenter, not to mention the research and organization of the material into a logical and easy to follow string of information.. with some class humour thrown in in presentation! 🥰
@@BazsiHHHWhen that happens you better hope they put as many barriers between him and f-16s as they do for Ukraine. Otherwise who knows what will happen.
Regarding the increases in Canada’s procurement, your digs at Germany’s bureaucracy could easily be made against Canada. As a Canadian, I am embarrassed that most of our “newest” ships andaircraft are 30+ years old and their replacements have been talked about repeatedly for 20 years. Our tanks are a bit newer, but as of January 2023, only 20% are considered operational. Talk about sandbaggin!
Well we actually increased procurement speed withe the Bundeswehr Beschaffungs Beschleunigungs Gesetz, or Bundeswehr Procurement fastening Law. Which allows us to buy equipment without having a big contest for the most minor things
I'm embarrassed that a Canadian thinks Canada needs high end tanks and planes. Why not just pass a law that citizens of Canada must burn a percentage of their salaries every month? That would save everyone the time and energy of having to actually buy and maintain that expensive equipment that you will never use in defense of Canada. Save time, but same result. Then you can do more fishing.
@@nickcharles1284 If the world didn’t have countries like Russia I would agree with you. Unfortunately, while might doesn’t make right, the threat posed by those that think that way must be contained. If not by actual war, at least by the credible threat of war. I would gladly take the subsidies the carbon fuel industries receive and spend it on our military. As witnessed by the recent events in NWT and B.C. our capacity to move personnel and equipment anywhere and to evacuate people is sorely lacking. I doubt tanks and fighters are needed but ships, transport aircraft and APC’s would good to have together with enough trained personnel to do more than one mission at a time.
If you refer to the use of funds for rapid emergency response equipment etc, I'm in agreement, and exactly my point. The problem is that you are reversing reality: the US is a 'country like that', not Russia. @@LeftCoastStephen
@@nickcharles1284 If the US, not Russia is a "country like that" wouldn't Canada need a military MORE beacause Canada has a border with the US, not Russia?
I'm not particularly interested in economics and only marginally interested in military strategic analysis. I'm just here because it's always at least an hour of subtle stinging jabs, dry humor, delicious sarcasm and a guy deeply passionate about his field.
It does make me laugh when I see thinly veiled threats aimed at Poland. Historically seeing the Poles on the opposing team is guaranteed to mean hard, tenacious and almost fanatical fighting, and Russia’s invasion seems to have the entire country spitting proverbial feathers in a barely contained fury. So when I see the scale of Poland’s rearmament plan, I do think it would be a incredibly stupid Russian, Belarusian or PMC commander who starts that fight, especially if the rearmament plan does go through as planned, because I’m pretty sure Poland would have its entire army on the doorstep of Minsk before they got around to pushing the Article 5 button.
America: Poland, why do I see pictures of Abrams tanks in Minsk? Poland: Oh, those are some old photos. America: What do you mean “old?” Poland: We’re uh, in Smolensk. America: Poland: America: I really want to endorse this, I really do.
Excellent presentation…. Been in the defense sector for 42 years with Boeing and US Army and have lost count of how many presentations Ive seen - these are genuinely informative, clear and to the point.
Here's a Canadian soldier's load out these days. A shovel for filling sandbags in fllood zones, a water hose to fight forest fires, and latex gloves for changing adult diapers in nursing homes. Nice camo though.😞
Don't forget shovelling snow from blizzards, cleaning up storm areas and evacuating civilians from disaster zones (they're not fighting fires though but nonetheless still a great workout and experience in teamwork and disaster management).
In Denmark we have neglected a lot of our defense spending. A memo was published back in august 2022 from the ministy of defense, and we don't live up to all of our 17 nato strength targets. Here it appears that we only lives up to three strength targets: -Two long-range drones for the North Atlantic and the Arctic on high alert from 2032, the purchase process is underway. - Three Hercules transport planes. Here, Denmark has four of its kind. - Three Thetis expedition ships for the North Atlantic and the Arctic. Here, Denmark has four. In contrast, we only partially or not at all lives up to the other 14 strength targets, either because the deadline has been exceeded or because we are behind in investments: - A heavy infantry brigade on 90 days readiness. - Short-range air defense for the Army and the Air Force. - Radar and missile system to combat rocket attacks against the Army. - A frigate equipped to fight submarines. - Two frigates on high alert and one on low alert armed with 183 missiles. - Maritime helicopters for the four frigates. - Long-range air defense for example Patriot. - Capacity to lay 100 sea mines. - 30 combat aircraft with up to 90 days of readiness - 48 missiles for F-35 fighter jets to combat enemy air defense radars. - Reconnaissance and intelligence unit for the Army's 1st Brigade. - Headquarters for special forces operation. - Logistics and transport for the deployment of Danish and allied forces. - Five EH-101 troop transport helicopters
was there any fines or other consequences from slipping these targets as nato member? in EU it looks many bigger countries simply ignored agreed economic rules and didnt get any consequences. smaller countries like greece of course cant get away like that.
as kid what I thought what 2020s will be like: flying cars, uber 8K video games, VR.... every day coca cola 2023: Perun spreadsheet presentation in internet every sunday.
Minute mark 2 when you mention spreadsheets my husband grins and sends the video to me saying "He is talking about me!" Thank you for the awesome spreadsheet, he will be explaining it to me lol
21:14 "In Finland and Poland I am convinced that the response to a territorially expansionist Russia is basically genetically ingrained reflex at this point." Speaking for Finland, why yes. It is.
As an american, Ive known (vaguely, back-of-mind-ly) that the defense budget is insane. Ive seen another video that referenced how (iirc) 3 out the 5 largest "air forces" in the world are different branches of the US military. But still, when I saw the pie chart graph of defense spending, I had to pause & stare. Thank so much for the amount of work you put into every video, Perun. You're out here educating the masses (relatively speaking) in ways many of us didnt even know we needed to be educated.
Two years ago I was in the camp of people that thought “Do we really need 11 aircraft carriers, and a new strategic stealth bomber and a couple of 6th gen fighter programs to boot?” Now I’m in the camp of “well, we can’t let the DIB atrophy by NOT producing all that stuff, now can we?” One day I caught myself thinking: What the hell happened to me? Answer: Perun. Thanks?
@@darylbas8216 If Russia and China could be trusted to just go "Yup, we're seeing the light: If we all just agree that the borders are the borders and everyone who thinks differently will be bonked by everyone else combined, then we can all just focus on collaboration and trade" then there isn't really anyone left who's big enough to be a threat if every other country just shows up with, say, one brigade per 5 million people. Then less wealthy countries could have motorized infantry brigades, and wealthy countries could have armour brigades with missile artillery... and that would pretty much be it.
It remains my view that you provide the best objective reviews of the topics you cover. Thanks again for your great videos! I have come to appreciate your work and look forward to hearing from every Sunday.
Looking forward to an eventual video on Canadian defense and procurement, we desperately need a video to show off the mess we usually make for ourselves.
OK, I'm ready to watch this one. This video is what Perun has been building up to since the beginning. This Is His Time! I'll shut up now and go watch the video. Dim the lights...
I guess Russia can park the new armaments right next to the 2000 Armata's they wanted to be built by 2020. There is a lot of space beside the imagined production. Russia has the economic GDP of Italy. Russia spent a lot of money on corruption, super weapons and this was at a time when they had money. With the limping economy, they will have to cut the little welfare Russia provides and when the money for the retired no longer comes then Russia has even more trouble.
Konstantin of the Inside Russia TH-cam channel has said that while the military economy in Russia is still being propped up and in some areas even being somewhat improved, the Russian civilian economy is being absolutely ravaged and neglected by the Kremlin.
It would be glorious if they reset all the production lines for war economy to find out a year later that the fuses on the shells are coming from nato countries and the its not happening anymore... A man can dream....
Perhaps better still if the ordinary Russians got so fed up with being mistreated by their own government, that they put one in power that made Russia mind its OWN business . Behind their OWN borders. I can dream too.
@@CMY187 so the same mistake the USSR made. You can't run an entire economy off of military production. You need to have a civilian economy of significant strength and size to make it work.
I love the meme where Poland asks "How many HiMARS systems did it take to fuck up Russia?" and the answer is "18...".... then Poland goes "I'll take 420 then".
Hej , hope that Scandinavia treated you well and sorry for the bad weather….. Please keep it up and would love a video with you and Mike Kofman. Your different perspective would be awesome to hear
Small update, with Zelensky's visit in Denmark and the Netherlands: Both countries are the first to confirm F-16s to Ukraine, IIRC. Don't know how much the Dutch are sending but on our end it'll be a total of 19 F-16s, with 6 being delivered around new year, a further 8 in 2024 and the last 5 in 2025. Denmark currently has 43 F-16 planes, with about 30 in active use, so it's a decent chunk of the fleet going out. We're also currently training 70 Ukrainian pilots to fly said F-16s and I believe the Dutch mentioned using some of their planes over here to help with that task.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Flyvestation Skrydstrup is their primary home, but they'll probably also do some training missions from Flyvestation Aalborg, as the local army training grounds has some interesting terrain features not found in the (somewhat flatter) southern Jutland. I see and hear them here somewhat regularly. Last year Frømandskorpset (who're based at Flyvestation Aalborg) had helicopter insertion/extraction exercises under F-16 coverage. That was loud as fuck, but immense fun to watch.
I just want my RPG7 with multiple types of grenades - light crayons for soft targets, heavy for turning things into their primal form and substance, and tandem for stubborn MBTs.
Thanks as always. If that theoretical episode about Canadian defense spending/military ever becomes reality, I would be highly interested. Would also love to offer a local perspective on the politics surrounding the military here should that be something you are looking for.
I would be interested in the general outlook by canadian taxpayers towards the military. If I guessed a slight majority see defense spending as a lower priority than the NHS, regulation of big banks, and climate change prevention would I be correct?
Underfunding the Canadian military is one of the very few remaining bipartisan issues. Sure, opposition parties will give the current government snark for the results of it, but military funding is a very low priority for the public across the political spectrum, especially during our crushing cost of living crisis. The overall perspective tends to be "we don't need to do it because the US defends us", and that view is hard to shake. There's also various arguments, depending on one's perspective, about whether our methods of counting defense spending are either undercounting compared to NATO allies or overcounting, depending if someone wants to argue we are doing more or less then headline numbers. If I had to guess, we do some creative accounting in the personnel section regarding veteran's benefits, for it to represent such a large percentage of our spending when we don't have many personnel.@@brianjonker510
@@brianjonker510"Maybe if we keep our own influence on climate change low enough then the climate won't be destroyed by the 10 000 tanks, 10s of carriers, who knows how many naval ships, and other vehicles China will build after seeing the opportunity with NATO." - Canada probably. Sometimes having the bigger gun gives you a better chance at peaceful cooperation and proper resolution than simply good intentions. Maybe when some of the more progressive leaning countries learn that we can actually start having some effect on threats to common prosperity like Climate Change or China. (excuse me for my rant I am a bit fed up with those people).
@@hungrymusicwolf DND is such a mess that until that's fixed I really don't think anything is going to improve much. East Coast at least is looking good with new ships being built or upgraded in Halifax. I can't really say much about anything else though.
Remember people. Poland is acquiring, through the next years, more than 1500 tanks, 1500 IFVs, 800 SAVs, 720 SPGs, 215 SPMs, 583 MLRS (including 200 HIMARS), 17 AA Systems, 31 AA batteries (including 8 Patriots), 150 Helicopters, 124 Fighters (including 32 F-35As), and other stuff.
Even the stuff is coming in the numbers stated. I can hardly imagine, how they wanna pay it and keep it operational. Poland is economically to weak for that amount on a long term. If there is no war within the next years, I see the majority of the equipment on the second hand table quite quickly.
It sounds great, but that means half a million people in arms, being 'non productive' from economic point of view. Good luck keeping that up for the next decade.
@@TuxCommander I think it's better to have relatively new thing still in storage for 15-25 years, than to try to use 40+ year old equipment because "that's the only thing we got left". Poland situation is similar to other post-soviet states as it doesn't have industrial base to reinvent itself, and starting point is mostly Soviet era equipment (modernization/maintenance can only go so far). Perun mentioned this is Poland's military video in 2022. Current Poland's government probably doesn't care (yet) about future budget, since it may not have to (there will be parliamentary elections in October 2023).
@@CompatibilityMadness That's true and I generally agree. However I still think less stuff would be more beneficial. It's about the maintenance overall which is hard on modern equipment. Just see almost all major NATO forces. Even economical power houses struggle to keep it tidy. The ones with smaller forces perform much better in terms of readiness. In a conflict numbers matter - of course. But when reality hits, it hits mostly hard. And I don't see Poland here to sustain a big military force for long. And as you said, a successor government will have funny times when they get the bill.
@@TuxCommander1500 IFV is needed. This is how many Poland had BMP-1, so this is amount quite reasonable. Tanks is doubling the number of what Poland had before the war, but most of them (1000) is planned to be maintained and produced in Poland. Also USA is thinking about Abrams being repaired in Poland, so the maintaince costs of IFV and tanks probably won't bee too hard to accept
I want you to know how much I appreciate you sharing your extensive knowledge on this area. I have little or no knowledge on these subjects but have become very engaged in following the events in Ukraine. I wouldn't have a clue with out your relating the matters decorated with your wit and humor. It keeps me interested which is no small feat.❤
It's not Nato it's Japan. 320 billion spending check for missiles, 8 new version upgraded Mogami Class Frigates 11,000 tons displacement. 2 new Aegis Destroyers 2 percent of Gdp in Military before it was 1percent.
@@jannegrey No idea were that comment came from. F-16's do use hydrazine onboard as an emergency system to kick over the engine if it flames out or needs a quick restart. But its not a lot of it
We have a Toyota plant making engines. The northeast part of the country already extensively uses framed lifted 4x4s with reduction and diff-locks in terms of their (mine as well) daily.
I forced myself to stop playing BG3 long enough to watch this video and you HAD TO MENTION THE GAME! 😂 At least I have 30 minutes more to play now than planned. Thank you for another excellent presentation.
Before watching: GER data might be a bit misleading, as the GER 100 billion fund will be spent mostly in late 2023, 24+25. Thus GER will get very close to 2% in 23, and reach it in 24+25. Then we have elections and it's the job of the new gov to find more money for 26 and beyond. Which is bad for long term planning...
Yeah. If we even get to 2% in one of these years. Scholz/SPD leaders are already backpedaling from his “Zeitenwende” announcments (2%/100bn). I wonder why the green party and the FDP don’t push him way harder on this. It is one of the few topics where both parties actually agree. Strack-Zimmermann, Nanni, Hofreiter could pressure the SPD into more action like a law with a military spending plan until 2030. Even the CDU (at least the west-german-part) with Kiesewetter co. would support it. That would be very good for the investment planning of the german/EU-defense industry.
It will be close, that's why, just yesterday, Germany withdrew the records that talked about spending 2% of GDP on the army? LOL. By the way, please state how much of these 100 billion euros Germany has spent in the year since the announcement of this program. You have lovely media in germany that your government's propaganda is given to you without even a bit of doubt and fact-checking :)
Slightly shorter one today - decided it simply wasn't practical to fit NATO, Russia and Ukraine all into the same video without blowing out the duration significantly so ultimately decided to split them up.
Also, quick blooper of the episode. I believe I say at one point russia invaded Crimea in 2008. obviously it was 2014. Blooper over.
Going to use the pinned comment this week to talk briefly about the data used and my philosophy on using it. In this episode I rely on NATO's recently published defence expenditure estimates. Looking at those estimates you may (if you spend way too much time looking at defence budgets) see some items that look a tad strange. These figures won't align with estimates like SIPRI figures that try to be most holistic for example, or some ways in which countries list and bundle expenditures domestically. Just as when I use MB2022 figures for equipment counts, there are some cases where I would come up with a different figure if generating it myself from scratch.
As with MB however, the value of the NATO figures is consistency. They allow for the comparison of many countries using a common set of definitions over time. It may not be perfect, but it allows good time series analysis and more like-for-like comparisons than if we tried to use customised figures for each country and year. I hope that explains why I try and focus on using data sets with wide coverage and am nervous about making custom changes or corrections even when I think they might otherwise be called for.
Thanks for your support as always and hope you enjoyed the episode!
Hey Perun mate it’s me again, you’ve been vary busy so good on ya but I would like to ask about what you think or if you’d make a video on AI for military purposes. Check out this video for an AI Los Alamos th-cam.com/video/7Aa0iLxDY8Q/w-d-xo.html
Hey Perun, any plans to cover the Russian disinformation space again as it regards to aid in Ukraine? Would love to see you breakdown all foreign aid to Ukraine, how it works, who pays for it. whats in said packages and ultimately dismantle the bullshit arguments you hear from the Right here in America as well as Russia
I hope this was an "introduction to NATO 2023 defence spending" with more detailed videos to come.
@@patrickazzarella6729😂
‘We really should talk about the Arctic’, yes, yes please! I’d love to hear your analysis on what’s foreseeable *at the mo, with all caveats attached..
Cheers mate, brilliant work and perfect pearlers, laughed and learned
Sweet as 👍🇦🇺👏
To your point on bureaucracy in procurement: "In some countries that wasnt a titanic barrier; in others, it was Germany," made me first wince in pain and then chuckle at how accurate it was.
As a German I wince when we pay for systems that don't work, and bureaucracy plays a role in this. But bureaucracy is also necessary to check that Rheinmetall isn't just pocketing money for 10-year-contracts that make no sense 3 years down the line.
@eljanrimsa5843 That's very much true: some oversight is needed and I understand why bureaucracy exists, but in Germany it's often ridiculous, from what I've seen and what I've read.
There's also definitely some arbitrary overreach from the Ämter sometimes, like how is showcased in some of the satire I like to watch. The whole system could definitely use an overhaul.
Only it isn't funny and people are dying in Ukraine because Germany couldn't face it's military weakness for a year and pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine.
@@eljanrimsa5843 Watch Perun's other videos..... checking every year and second guessing every decision on a 12 month cycle...... for multi year projects...... how is that working out for Germany? (clue: Absurdly badly)
@@occamraiser > "pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine"
Why do you claim lies? Are you pushing Russian propaganda? Germany has been weighing every decision a bit longer than it should have, but it has been one of Ukraine's main helpers from the beginning. Among the weapons that Germany sent in 2022, were Gepard, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Iris-T, bridge-laying tanks, all with unique capabilities. More than a million Ukrainian refugees live in Germany. Germany has been crucial in providing financial aid and coordinating the EU response.
"buying things that explode to buying things that deliver things that explode to things that need exploding" - one of the best ways of describing artillery I have ever heard.
Another Perun pearl. The man could become a stand-up anyday!
Personally I looking forward to 'Perun World Tour- Military procurement - a funny business. Coming to a potential battlefield near you.' I want a front row seat.
I thought I had a stroke while trying to read that. It’s funny but now i have a headache.
I had to say that aloud to understand it.
26:29 for those looking for the soundbite
"Pay protests can get very hectic, when the protesters have access to main battle tanks" is such an underrated quote
Allusions to Niger?
@@Adept893 Any country that has a lot of inflation or is trying to cut down on military budget, really.
@@behemoth9543 Yeah, once you get a strong military your borders are usually secure. But now you have a lot of people with guns that are already inside your borders. And if you start making decisions that they do not agree with they might start demonstrating their dissatisfaction with quite explosive results.
@@Adept893Niger is a bit more complicated, that's more corruption. Because the president of Niger was able to increase its economy and improve the country.
Sounds like something prigozyn would do
And americans want the freedom to do
I find it lowkey funny how a *_50+ minute numbers/data-focused_* PowerPoint presentation is Perun's idea of a _SHORTER_ video. 😂😂
And that we are sad that it is!
I'm waiting for the day he puts out a video that's longer than Return of the King Extended.
I believe it will happen someday.
@@yoda0017TIKHistory almost achieved this
But you've got to remember that it is interesting and d___ informative.
Buildzoid is the same way. I can't remember him making a video under 20 minutes.
@perun I’m in Poland at the moment and the polish armed forces day parade was massive. It was there largest parade since the end of the Cold War and there was the K2 and K9 rolling down the street was crazy. Thanks for all that you do.
As a Belgian, this one was painful to watch... I knew things for our military were bad, but had no idea how bad 😅
Your currently military is perfectly fine...
...if Belgium went back in time to the Medieval era!
@@holzy1979
Walloons are French right?
@@christiandauz3742 Wallonia is the southern half of Belgium. French speaking though. North half is Flanders, they speak Dutch.
Well, the choice you DO have in a democracy is to inform you member of parlament, that you want him to change it, if he wants you vote next time. Just a discrete suggestion.
@@christiandauz3742 French speaking Belgians, just like NOT all Russian speaking Ukrainians are pro-Russia, right.
And the American are not under the British crown, thought they claim to speak English, right.
"And if you do happen to be one of those people who can derive joy from spreadsheets..."
Guilty as charged.
Me too. And a background in investment, bureaucracy, and rifle toting. Perun awesome 😎
I'm more so about the story behind the spreadsheets, and given that I can understand them, but otherwise yes.
Veritas vobiscum? Always follow the numbers?
I don't quite know how to use a spreadsheet but I'm pretty sure I could derive joy from them if I learned.
In 2021, I would never have guessed that I would spend an hour every week watching a PowerPoint presentation on defense economics. Yet here I am, and here I will be. It is both a professionally edifying and personally rewarding expenditure of time. Bravo Perun, and keep up the good work.
An hour of slide show is easy to digest when the topic is relevant, well delivered and sprinkled with bone dry humor that hit like a ton of bricks when you least expect it.
Who else can take defense spending as a topic and turn into just short of an hour of an interesting, informative information? I always look forward to my Sunday morning Perun PowerPoint because I always come away better informed and a little smarter. As always, thank you, sir!
Yes, Power Point ought to sponsor their best 'promotional gig'.
In his autobiography covering The War Years, Churchill discussed this very topic extensively. In short, rearmament in a democracy is a frustratingly slow, multi year process. In the first few years you spend a lot of money and get almost no output. That’s where the West is at right now.
After a long period of low investment, initial rearmament costs are high and produce little visible benefit because you are not only increasing stock but are having to catch up with new strategic and technical developments (I e. monoplanes for biplanes, carriers for battleships, gun-tractors for horses.)
Churchill is a war criminal himself and not one inch better than Putin
Unless you use cheat code like Poland :D
I'm not so sure 'democracy' is the correct descriptor. I'd probably go with 'modern industrialized state.' Or at the least, a state that requires modern industry to arm itself, whether the industry that does so is domestic or not.
True. Poland definitely pushing it to the max though
"It's the ultra premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into the driveway a pico second after you click the order confirm button." Perun is the GOAT. THE GOAT.
Mate, I imagine you've heard by now that Russia's lunar probe just crashed into the moon about two hours ago. Apparently Roscosmos thought they had a 50/50 chance of landing the probe as they have been cut off from Western space technology and a success was to be hailed as "Russia not needing Western tech, screw those sanctions!". It's a pretty amazing fall-from-grace for Roscosmos.
"Special Landing Operation"
They successfully intercepted the moon :D
Damn, everything was fine though until the last maneuver! I felt hope for this spaceship.
it actually crashed? i thought they were having some technical difficulties. . but it would be both awesome and sad(for science) if it did crash, especially after what a douche that director of Roscosmos turned out to be, declaring that russia should nuke everyone over their failed bullshit in ukraine
OH SHIT IT DID CRASH!! THATS HILARIOUS!!! HAHAHAHAHAH RUSSIA SUUUCKS HAHAHAHAHA
Time for my newfound addiction in PowerPoint about military logistics and procurement!
Such quality content is an absolute gem!
Who needs cocaine when you have Perun's dulcet tones.
I'm a published author. And I absolutely live for my weekend writing sessions. But when Perun clicks in, I develop an acute writers block! Can't help it. It must be something psychological.
34:47 Canada: "The nation's military usually doesn't get massive international praise for it's defense procurement." Understatement of the year. The procurement specialists in Ottawa are underfunded, overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.
The whole Canadian military is : ''overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.'' , at some point Ottawa must stop depicting our military as a useless waste of money. We need our troops to be proud again.
Since 1973 Canada's defence spending exceeded 2% of GDP in only 5 years ('83 to '87 inclusive) - Nato's worst sponger. And it was just barely more than 2% in those 5 years. Five decades of under investment will take a long time to overcome, and Trudeau appears to have no interest to address the chronic shortfalls.
@@gagamba9198 biggest understatement of the decade. Trudeau sucks and the provicinial governments under him are even worse
@gagamba9198 Well, even in the deep of the Afghan war (2009), Harper asked the CAF to return 200M $+, so to be fair, it is hardly a Trudeau problem. It has been a constant fact since at least 1993 and Chretien's government.
Can has great soldiers , weapons include brooms and hockey sticks .
As a Dane, and thus a Scandinavian, I would have loved to shake your hand and express my gratitude for all the insights you share every week! I've been following the channel since the war broke out and it's been an educational, humbling and often humorous experience! =) I really hope you enjoyed your stay, while it lasted, and I look forward to the video next week.
I love the comment he made on how quickly Poland and South Korea created their arms partnership.
"It's the ultimate premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into your driveway a picosecond after you hit the order confirm button."
Suck on that, Jeff Bezos.
Buy now and get free shipping.
So I'm gonna be the one to ask... South Korean version of Amazon when?
They probably have one.
And You wont be able to pronounce it.
In polands case they bought both American and SK
@@AL-lh2htto be fair we also bough a shitton from our own industry. Often overlooked, but really significant too.
14:55 Lithuania mentioned.
We've been steadily increasing our budget since Crimea
2014- 320 Million euros
2023- 2 Billion euros
With the jump of our budget since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, we've rushed our projects like Himars (Delivery date 2025 instead of 2027)
Started projects we only planned to start in the 2030's, like our first Tank battalion since the pre occupation days of 1939. (The Lithuanian defense ministry has allready sent a letter of intent to German manfucturers for the Leopard 2a8 tank, planned to be around 55 units). And many more examples like this. Love your content, keep it up!
Some countries have more of an incentive to 'read the room' than others. 😅😅😅
"Si vis pacem, para bellum." He who desires peace, prepares for war
Lithuania is not aggressive, but it will not fall for any Russian trick again....
@@lamwen03Not only "read the room", but nearly "predicting the future" while everyone else was calling that alarmist/rusophobia.
Indeed. Hopefully we get our division fully set up, HQ unit has already been formed, just might take a while, considering how slowly the Fusilier battalion is being formed and that was started before the decision to form the division was taken. Definitely a country that deserves a deeper dive imo.
@@ArtisZ"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it".
I've learned so much in the last year and a half from Perun. While I'm crushed at the circumstances of this channel turning to this sort of content in beyond grateful for every video that is released.
Couldn't agree more. Sad, black background, but bright stars of knowledge and new insight.
I often wonder if that is why he chose a black background? Not to appear TOO frivolous, with his wit? Just a thought.
Perun, I hope you get proper pay for your efforts. Your analysis and gathering and explaining of hard to get by information is extremely helpful in trying to navigate this fast changing world. Big thanks from Norway!
I know of at least 2 British members of the armed forces using PERUN videos in offical logistic and procurement presentations in the UK MOD( Im not going to get into more specifics as its a small world)
Something to take into account is that NATO has loses from equipment _being donated to Ukraine,_ but Russia is suffering a lot more equipment losses from that donated NATO equipment _being used on them by Ukrainians._
So the NATO equipment is doing its designed purpose.
How tf would anyone know this?....
True equipment losses and casualty figure have not been released for us to consider, either by either the Russians or the West. What basis are you making your statement?
sorta? i mean the designed purpose is to either end the war or force russia out? equipment is a resource. tech neither side is accomplishing its designed purpose by expending that resource. Also it's naive to think that NATO defense contractors really care to end the war or not, this war is very lucrative for NATO weapons makers and these people have a outsized influence in how long the war goes on and how much money they can make. Really no side is achieving its "announced or implied" aim yet. Both side are just bleeding funds from each others citizens taxes.
Main reason why Baltic countries gave as much as they did.
Like Estonia giving away all available towed-artillery pieces.
Thats THE reason we had them. And UA needed it for that exact purpose. So a win-win.
Its not so much that russia is dying because of the weapones but rather because of the meat wave tactics they use , you are going to lose many one way or another
Excellent content as usual. I particularly enjoy humorous remarks about Poland, being a Pole myself i find them absolutely hilarious!
It kinda makes me worried. We had similar situation before (36-39). Did not end up well. It looks like we are preparing for some kind of deluge in like next 5-10 years.
@@zbigniewmalec4816worried how? orders not coming through before something big can happen? yah I have feeling too something is in works, maybe all over world or close to, multiple continents simultaneously.
@@effexon in 38-39 Poland was spending considerable amount of budget for military with the aim to be ready in 1942. Did not work out. Some of the current purchases seems forced - why to emergency buy k9, why not invest in increased capacity for ahs krab. It's just couple of years of difference.
@@zbigniewmalec4816ah good detail. hopefully none of that will be needed, but I see your point, looks a bit panicy move. glad ukraine had plenty of equipment albeit soviet era, in stocks that they could repel first weeks without western help. but that also speaks how much they had. Im not aware why those decisions were made, many times future politics and relations between countries play into it, even with time delay/cost inferiority risk. in these matters us civilians are often 2-3 years delay blindsighted from all details agreed between leaders.
@@zbigniewmalec4816 The difference is that we are currently preparing well and we will be ready before Russia can rebuild their military. If they ever can before they collapse.
Perun,
Your quips and sarcasm truly bring happiness and joy. Thank you for making what would seem to be an incredulo-boring topic very interesting!
Czech here - our country in last month or so passed into law that military spending will always be 2% of GDP. So it's not just one time thing increase, but long time which will allow to better plan and alocate funds. We are now in the process of acquiring several dozens of Leopard 2s, 246 CV 90 IFVs and 24 F-35s, not mentioning other things like expanding the army personnel in coming years. We are small county but we are finally doing our part and I am proud of us.
The very best analysis of anything anywhere is consistently provided by Perun! All of journalism should take note. Thank
You for your superb effort and resulting product.
As always a presentation of the highest quality, Perun. I am glad, that you have enjoyed your time in Scandinavia. We look forward to your next visit 😊
Do you know anything about where he's been?
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 I believe, that within the past two weeks, Perun was in Copenhagen to conduct an interview.
I have talked to some people of the royal Dutch navy and especially those who work in research, and they have said that since the war in Ukraine, their limit is time and not money. This wasn't the case last 15 years.
Time is always a major factor once you have spent it.
@@paulbeesley8283The one problem with time is that you cannot spend it then earn it back like with money. We've wasted a few too many decades not spending wisely in the west.
it looks we are in 1914 to 1915 of WW1 timescale... then in 1916 big battles, 1917 even bigger battles, with new tanks and planes. iirc nobody talks of 1915 WW1 context... and 2023 seems that way... just slow grinding, no major victories. all to prepare of course, no work, no gain.
@@effexon In 1915, armies were still getting used to the new realites (the main one being that it would NOT, be over by Christmas,) just as now, we seem to be getting used to the old realites (including, it will NOT, be over by Christmas.)
yeah the joke if some carribean nation invaded the dutch carribean islands used to be "do we send one destroyer, two, or all three?"
"....one of those people who can derive joy from spreadsheets" this is why I love your style ( just one small example). Not just content that makes one think one learned quite a bit (yes, I do), but such a great way of presenting. I even started liking the Ozzy accent.
*Aussie accent :P
My thoughts exactly, apart from you probably not watching your spell check on Aussie.
I like your sarcasm.
16:02 Ukraine getting the good stuff - from the post Disco era and the era of dial-up internet, finally.
18:36 US Army replacing old cars with new ones
19:02 Poland getting the Korean delivery in what in military procurement terms could be considered a picosecond…
26:04 actual increase in equipment spending in 2023 - pretty sobering
To be fair, post Disco era to era of dial up internet actually have the coolest stuff in modern human history so far. Stuff that you can actually own, long lasting given proper maintenance, and user repairable!
Disco inferno!
Regarding the Finnish defence spenditure. My understading is that a lot of the increase is about us getting the new F35s. We bought the current F18s in the 90s, they are reaching the end of their service life and needed to be replaced around this time. The process of procuring them was started already before the current Russian invasion and was going to take place regardless of the invasion, so it shouldn't be viewed as a response to the invasion.
No. It is from the four new corvets we are currently building. We haven't yet started to pay for the F-35's, but we are currently paying for the ships.
@@Pikkabuu No, it's the F-35. There's 1,41B € budget line in the 2023 budget for that alone.
edit. my bad, that has been in the budget for the last couple of years already. In 2022 the F-35 procurement was 1,52B, and in 2021 1,48B. The increase from 2022 to 2023 is in the other procurement budget line.
And what 'defense' did the f-18s accomplish? What enemy was repelled? Answer: the same 'defense' that the f35s will. No defense, no enemy.. Russia was as likely to attack Finland as it was to land on Mars. So that tax money that would have gone to social services and infrastructure for , well, the Finnish people, went instead to US defense contractors. "Thank you Finland, for my new pool and Jaguar!" (P.S. the F35 is a Mithril plated piece of crap. See: "Ongoing headaches with F-35 fighter jets are rippling through the rest of the US military's combat aircraft fleet" - Insider Magazine
Finland is spending on F-35, new multifunction corvettes for the navy, Davids Sling anti-air systems from Israel, new anti-ship missiles from Israel, new rifles for troops, anti-artillery radar systems and increasing the ammunition reserves.
God TH-cam knows I love this content so much it insta drops it into my reccomends as soon as it pops up
It feels wrong to say it this way; but this one is the best in a while for me (wrong because they're all excellent)! It's so interesting to learn about how the decadent mountain is shifting it's gears.
Biased being from Norway, but I would LOVE an Arctic episode.
Keep up the great work!
Edit: When data is available, a deep dive in Ukraine's MIC would be even better.
19:29 It's as if the factory simply erased two first letters from our tanks' destinations and turned "buyer: ROKA" into "buyer: PolsKA". Hence Korean camo paint on the Polish K9 deliveries. We are impatient people addicted to overnight shipping and 30-minute food deliveries.
Reminds me of the shiny American planes in WW2. The time for the paint to dry during manufacturing was considered excessive. Similarly, the paint was already on the K9s, and repainting would TAKE TOO LONG!
If there is anyone being more studied than Perun in this world? Genius analysis.
You’re presentations are always the most valuable context I can find. if I stop following every other channel, I will still follow you.
I use to work in munition manufacturing. I could take months just to set-up the manufacturing line; installing the equipment, testing of all the cameras and arrays of censors with the lab. pre-prod. The wrong white paint may send an order back to the factory for...°°°°°°. Training the team that is going to be on the line and the new guys and gales hired because of increase in production. it takes time to start the machine safely for the workers and the end users. Everything has to be tested. Samples during production have to be fired, shells have to be X-rayed 100/100. Every steps of the production has tests over tests... Plus, government contract are usually in march.
But when it is started, when the 3 shifts are rolling out the iron rain out the gate.... its scary to see how good we got at this in a century.
To add to those accurate observations, my experience in the sector (from a few decades ago) is that QA is beyond anything you would have found back in the day, and rejections could occur on the most miniscule superficial imperfection.
I just love the humor, you tend to express your thoughts with, Perun! 🤣 Keep p the good work! Best regards from Poland!
From 321 views to 16 thousand till i was done watching this episode. Quality speaks for itself.
Thanks for your good work
sandbagging the baseline is one of the big issues with a lot of science papers. a 200% increase in effectiveness sounds great, but when you learn that it went from working in .0001% of cases to working in .0003% of cases it sounds WAY less meaningful.
With 200% increase it would went from .0001% to .0003% ;D
@@kondziu1992 ahh, I knew it felt wrong, now it's corrected
In scientific papers this is not a big issue because this kind of information is provided. And if you have to run your particle accelerator 1,000,000 times to make one observation on average, than an improved method to run it 300,000 times for one observation on average is a pretty big deal.
This reminds me of a line about how rapidly Japan's economy was growing in the late 19th-early 20th centuries in comparison with the UK and USA. Namely, that it looked great because Japan cheated by starting with a neo-paleolithic baseline.
@@eljanrimsa5843 true, more referencing to medical fields with drug testing that can see tiny effects that then get exaggerated to the public, but in reality, barely have a detectable effect above placebo.
Polish Armed Forces are undergoing a truly full scale transformation. It is worth to mention that on top of new procurements the formation of our 5th division (called 1st Infantry Division) has recently began, and there are deep organisational and doctrinal reforms on the way. By 2026 we will see the first real effects of the transformation, when the first orders will be finished. Our artillery and tank arsenals will undergo a generational change. Old ex-Soviet 2S1 howitzers, PT-91 MBT's (basically a deep T-72M1 modernisation) and the rest of BM-21 Grad will be phased out of service. Instead, our artillery will consist of 212 K9A1 howitzers, 180 AHS Krab howitzers, 120 Rak 120mm mortars, of course provided that we won't order more of them, aswell as 288 K239 Chunmoo, each with twice as much firepower as US Himars, which we will have at least 20. I'm not even counting less important systems we will most likely still have in service, namely WR-40/RM-70 MLRS (around 100 pieces) and Dana howitzers (around 100 pieces). Our tank force will be made out of 366 Abrams MBT's (250 M1A2 SepV3 and 116 M1A1 FEP), 180 K2 MBT's and 233 Leopard 2 MBT's (2A5 and 2PL). Effectively the most potent artillery and tank force in the EU.
And don't even think it's over with the shopping spree. In the coming months we will place another order on Rosomak APC's, with order on possibly around 400 of them, and we still wait for an order on Himars MLRS and Apache helicopters. That's for the most recent plans, but in 2025 we can expect the beggining of mass production of K2PL MBT in Poland, aswell as the new heavy infantry fighting vehicle, of which 700 units will be procured. That's on top of light and amphibious IFV Borsuk of which 1400 units are on order. We also still await for an order for another two squadrons of fighters, we also wait for light tank destroyers with Brimstone missiles and new submarines.
So yeah. Poland will have her borders. Even if on the last map Humanity ever draws.
Poland knows what’s at stake with what’s going on in Ukraine. Unfortunately some NATO countries (especially Germany) are still dragging their feet expecting things can return to normal with Russia.
@@ElTigre12024 Precisely, but it's not only about securing our independence. We are way more ambitious than that. Poland aims to become a provider, and not a receiver, of security in the Central and Eastern Europe, willing to take the lead in the security architecture on NATO's eastern flank. Poland wants to increase her international position this way and end with peripheral status of our region. The ultimate goal is to achieve the position of a regional power and a leader of smaller Central and Eastern European countries, and thanks to combined economic and military power, finally release the true potential of the region.
@@ElTigre12024 Poland really, really knows about Eastern Europe. They dont want to make the same mistake Pilsudzky did and their sandwhiched of 1939
pity that Poland is losing democracy at the same time. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend. (I am Czech)
@@daliborbobr6331 The situation is not as bad as some people try to portrait it is. In reality of course there are some problems with democracy in Poland, but the current ruling party is slowly losing power, and what they currently have is nothing compared to extent of power in hands of Victor Orban or Erdogan. We have new elections this Autumn, and it is already certain that the PiS party will not be able to achieve majority in Polish Sejm. I'm not concerned.
One thing not mentioned was a number of months back the USA reexamined their funding to Ukraine and found that the USA was putting replacement costs on the books and not actual costs so it was readjusted and there was additional money for Ukraine in the millions of US Dollars so there's that.
Come on this was broad day corruption. How can the US with all the accounting software and best universities in the world claim to make mistakes at the highest level ...we ain't stupid...this war is all about corruption in the west for the politicians no wonder they don't want to talk peace
Billions, not millions. As an accountant I was hardly surprised but it looks sus as hell to a lot of people.
Which makes me point out how often the Pentagon flubs audits in normal circumstances.
Yes! Another hour long power point presentation about numbers!!!!!!
The content on this channel is documentary-level excellence. I greatly appreciate all your work, Perun.
Perun has ascended into making a video even more about defence economics than usual
Thanks for including sources in your description. Underrated quality of a hero.
As a Canadian, I had no idea how bad our military was. And with the state of the world right now, we better get to work to build it up and get ready for battle!
Thank you 💛 Perun for your excellent report today. Much appreciated Sir!!!
Take note of Putin's longer term fantasy. Control the Arctic, and recover Alaska. It would be wise to, at least take note of, the spew in the Russian media.
Gonna need a hell of a leadership change both in Parliament and the CAF to do that.
Turn AUKUS into CANAUKUS could be a start.
Yeah, you wouldn't want to be invaded by .... um ... (checks map) ... Greenland?
Its not bad, its just small
The comment about scale of large nations really hits home. Imagine starting a game of Civilisation. In the beginning one warrior is an enormous 3 turn investment. When you're empire starts to spread, every city producing a warrior is enough to conquer the entire world if it was still Turn 1.
It's one of the reasons why the difference between immortal and deity difficulty AI is so massive: Deity AI get to start with 2 settlers/cities instead of 1. You'd be surprised how much of a difference that makes.
Unfortunately Civilization doesn't model the other half of that equation. As a polity grows in size, its productivity increases exponentially. But its upkeep costs also increase exponentially. So every polity will naturally grow until it reaches an equilibrium between productivity and upkeep. Developments, discoveries and inventions can all boost productivity or reduce upkeep, pushing that equilibrium higher. But then you need more and more educated people to maintain all your advanced infrastructure and administration, which means you need to invest in education, which means more of your productivity tied up in even more upkeep, and...
Basically, it's not as simple as "small country weak, big country strong". It really depends on how much of its production a country can actually direct towards military action, without starving other areas of its economy, or actively cannibalizing itself.
@@tbotalpha8133 Not just an issue with civ, every strategy game I've played is eager to reward expansion but doesn't deal with the increased burden of that expansion leading to simplistic go wide strategies. I'd like to find one where that isn't the case.
@@hungrymusicwolf If you double your ability every turn, then the one that starts with 2 will always be twice as strong. Early on, where hit-odds can still fluke the individual skirmishes, that can still be manageable, but when it's 512 vs 1024 the averages starts kicking your butt to a pulp with boring predictability.
I would love a video about Greece, its procurement programs and its geopolitical maneuvers will propably be a nice topic, from the treaty with france and the close relations with the us to the opposite relations between the country and turkey
Agreed;
Same here. I was hoping he would go into what the hell was happening with Greece, but he didn’t even mention it.
Back to basics episode. But so good at getting the basics right. This is the stuff that got me hooked on the channel and brings me back with analysis at a level I just can’t get anywhere else
Look at what this video is about and look at the views! It always blows me away that these topics have such traction. Great video once again
Top quality talk! Ye wouldn't get it at a university.. Perun is definitely a born presenter, not to mention the research and organization of the material into a logical and easy to follow string of information.. with some class humour thrown in in presentation! 🥰
I finally got my fix of defense economics .
I’m afraid of what I would’ve done without it.
i just hope you dont have access to main battle tanks when your patience runs out
@@BazsiHHHWhen that happens you better hope they put as many barriers between him and f-16s as they do for Ukraine. Otherwise who knows what will happen.
Regarding the increases in Canada’s procurement, your digs at Germany’s bureaucracy could easily be made against Canada. As a Canadian, I am embarrassed that most of our “newest” ships andaircraft are 30+ years old and their replacements have been talked about repeatedly for 20 years. Our tanks are a bit newer, but as of January 2023, only 20% are considered operational.
Talk about sandbaggin!
Well we actually increased procurement speed withe the Bundeswehr Beschaffungs Beschleunigungs Gesetz, or Bundeswehr Procurement fastening Law. Which allows us to buy equipment without having a big contest for the most minor things
I'm embarrassed that a Canadian thinks Canada needs high end tanks and planes. Why not just pass a law that citizens of Canada must burn a percentage of their salaries every month? That would save everyone the time and energy of having to actually buy and maintain that expensive equipment that you will never use in defense of Canada. Save time, but same result. Then you can do more fishing.
@@nickcharles1284
If the world didn’t have countries like Russia I would agree with you. Unfortunately, while might doesn’t make right, the threat posed by those that think that way must be contained. If not by actual war, at least by the credible threat of war.
I would gladly take the subsidies the carbon fuel industries receive and spend it on our military. As witnessed by the recent events in NWT and B.C. our capacity to move personnel and equipment anywhere and to evacuate people is sorely lacking.
I doubt tanks and fighters are needed but ships, transport aircraft and APC’s would good to have together with enough trained personnel to do more than one mission at a time.
If you refer to the use of funds for rapid emergency response equipment etc, I'm in agreement, and exactly my point. The problem is that you are reversing reality: the US is a 'country like that', not Russia. @@LeftCoastStephen
@@nickcharles1284 If the US, not Russia is a "country like that" wouldn't Canada need a military MORE beacause Canada has a border with the US, not Russia?
I'm not particularly interested in economics and only marginally interested in military strategic analysis.
I'm just here because it's always at least an hour of subtle stinging jabs, dry humor, delicious sarcasm and a guy deeply passionate about his field.
@perun
Thanks yet again! For bringing us another piece of research, enough material to cross check and ponder on.
Much appreciated!
guess I got to cancel my plans of going to bed, new Perun video dropped 2 minutes ago
We need to get you an award for awesome one liners. Getting up there with the Arnold shoot em up movies in the late 90's. Love the content!
It does make me laugh when I see thinly veiled threats aimed at Poland. Historically seeing the Poles on the opposing team is guaranteed to mean hard, tenacious and almost fanatical fighting, and Russia’s invasion seems to have the entire country spitting proverbial feathers in a barely contained fury.
So when I see the scale of Poland’s rearmament plan, I do think it would be a incredibly stupid Russian, Belarusian or PMC commander who starts that fight, especially if the rearmament plan does go through as planned, because I’m pretty sure Poland would have its entire army on the doorstep of Minsk before they got around to pushing the Article 5 button.
America: Poland, why do I see pictures of Abrams tanks in Minsk?
Poland: Oh, those are some old photos.
America: What do you mean “old?”
Poland: We’re uh, in Smolensk.
America:
Poland:
America: I really want to endorse this, I really do.
@@classifiedad1Sounds like a script from Habitual Linecrosser lol
Nice one
Poland is like Goku. Every time they're defeated, they come back stronger.
A Perun quote here is great "Are you really a Polish government if you deny yourself an opportunity to kick the Russians in the teeth?"
A few more weeks and you’ll be hitting the half a million subs, that’s a great milestone mate, keep up the good work.
Excellent presentation…. Been in the defense sector for 42 years with Boeing and US Army and have lost count of how many presentations Ive seen - these are genuinely informative, clear and to the point.
Here's a Canadian soldier's load out these days. A shovel for filling sandbags in fllood zones, a water hose to fight forest fires, and latex gloves for changing adult diapers in nursing homes. Nice camo though.😞
Don't forget shovelling snow from blizzards, cleaning up storm areas and evacuating civilians from disaster zones (they're not fighting fires though but nonetheless still a great workout and experience in teamwork and disaster management).
In Denmark we have neglected a lot of our defense spending. A memo was published back in august 2022 from the ministy of defense, and we don't live up to all of our 17 nato strength targets.
Here it appears that we only lives up to three strength targets:
-Two long-range drones for the North Atlantic and the Arctic on high alert from 2032, the purchase process is underway.
- Three Hercules transport planes. Here, Denmark has four of its kind.
- Three Thetis expedition ships for the North Atlantic and the Arctic. Here, Denmark has four.
In contrast, we only partially or not at all lives up to the other 14 strength targets, either because the deadline has been exceeded or because we are behind in investments:
- A heavy infantry brigade on 90 days readiness.
- Short-range air defense for the Army and the Air Force.
- Radar and missile system to combat rocket attacks against the Army.
- A frigate equipped to fight submarines.
- Two frigates on high alert and one on low alert armed with 183 missiles.
- Maritime helicopters for the four frigates.
- Long-range air defense for example Patriot.
- Capacity to lay 100 sea mines.
- 30 combat aircraft with up to 90 days of readiness
- 48 missiles for F-35 fighter jets to combat enemy air defense radars.
- Reconnaissance and intelligence unit for the Army's 1st Brigade.
- Headquarters for special forces operation.
- Logistics and transport for the deployment of Danish and allied forces.
- Five EH-101 troop transport helicopters
was there any fines or other consequences from slipping these targets as nato member? in EU it looks many bigger countries simply ignored agreed economic rules and didnt get any consequences. smaller countries like greece of course cant get away like that.
Thanks for the updated overview.
@@effexon no not really, other than critic from other Nato members, and bad atmosphere at Nato meetings
My favorite time of the week: PowerPoint presentation time 😂
as kid what I thought what 2020s will be like: flying cars, uber 8K video games, VR.... every day coca cola
2023: Perun spreadsheet presentation in internet every sunday.
Minute mark 2 when you mention spreadsheets my husband grins and sends the video to me saying "He is talking about me!" Thank you for the awesome spreadsheet, he will be explaining it to me lol
Thank you for everything you do Perun. I wake up every Sunday with anticipation!
Great work. (As always)
This channel is really helpful for getting the big picture.
21:14 "In Finland and Poland I am convinced that the response to a territorially expansionist Russia is basically genetically ingrained reflex at this point."
Speaking for Finland, why yes. It is.
Finland and Poland should donate everything they could to Ukraine
Free houses in Ukraine for Polish and Finnish volunteers!
@@christiandauz3742houses were built in ukraine, donated to regular civilians as I remember
@@effexon
I meant the houses taken from the Donbass traitors and Russians to give to volunteers
@@christiandauz3742 Shush, we are already out there. No need to inform everyone around.
The same here in Poland. You can't fight with your DNA. But:
"If you want wins, bring Finns"
"Deriving joy from spreadsheets" is one of the few joys left in my modern life. :3
I decidedly enjoyed this back to basics episode. Thank you for what you do for all of us, Perun.
Another banger from the sun tzu of logistics. Great work perun
As an american, Ive known (vaguely, back-of-mind-ly) that the defense budget is insane. Ive seen another video that referenced how (iirc) 3 out the 5 largest "air forces" in the world are different branches of the US military. But still, when I saw the pie chart graph of defense spending, I had to pause & stare. Thank so much for the amount of work you put into every video, Perun. You're out here educating the masses (relatively speaking) in ways many of us didnt even know we needed to be educated.
Two years ago I was in the camp of people that thought “Do we really need 11 aircraft carriers, and a new strategic stealth bomber and a couple of 6th gen fighter programs to boot?” Now I’m in the camp of “well, we can’t let the DIB atrophy by NOT producing all that stuff, now can we?”
One day I caught myself thinking: What the hell happened to me? Answer: Perun. Thanks?
@@darylbas8216 If Russia and China could be trusted to just go "Yup, we're seeing the light: If we all just agree that the borders are the borders and everyone who thinks differently will be bonked by everyone else combined, then we can all just focus on collaboration and trade" then there isn't really anyone left who's big enough to be a threat if every other country just shows up with, say, one brigade per 5 million people. Then less wealthy countries could have motorized infantry brigades, and wealthy countries could have armour brigades with missile artillery... and that would pretty much be it.
42:34 *Slovakian
Thanks for a great video, as always!
It remains my view that you provide the best objective reviews of the topics you cover. Thanks again for your great videos! I have come to appreciate your work and look forward to hearing from every Sunday.
Your delivery of precis and easily understood info is second to none. Good work Perun I've been hooked for along time now cheers
The poles are no joke damn much respect. I hope the rest of Europe takes note they don’t need money for war in the far future they need it yesterday.
Looking forward to an eventual video on Canadian defense and procurement, we desperately need a video to show off the mess we usually make for ourselves.
😂 "In some countries that wasn't a Titanic barrier; in others, it was 'Germany.'" 😂
definitely a noticeable and aporeciated return to the core of what makes this channel unique. i like all the videos but these type are your best.
OK, I'm ready to watch this one. This video is what Perun has been building up to since the beginning.
This Is His Time!
I'll shut up now and go watch the video.
Dim the lights...
I love seeing Perun's presentations on spreadsheets!😂
I guess Russia can park the new armaments right next to the 2000 Armata's they wanted to be built by 2020. There is a lot of space beside the imagined production. Russia has the economic GDP of Italy. Russia spent a lot of money on corruption, super weapons and this was at a time when they had money. With the limping economy, they will have to cut the little welfare Russia provides and when the money for the retired no longer comes then Russia has even more trouble.
Konstantin of the Inside Russia TH-cam channel has said that while the military economy in Russia is still being propped up and in some areas even being somewhat improved, the Russian civilian economy is being absolutely ravaged and neglected by the Kremlin.
It would be glorious if they reset all the production lines for war economy to find out a year later that the fuses on the shells are coming from nato countries and the its not happening anymore... A man can dream....
Perhaps better still if the ordinary Russians got so fed up with being mistreated by their own government, that they put one in power that made Russia mind its OWN business . Behind their OWN borders.
I can dream too.
If you go to Rural Russia. You will find toilet is literally hole in the ground. I basically grew accustomed to during 2 months in Russia
@@CMY187 so the same mistake the USSR made. You can't run an entire economy off of military production. You need to have a civilian economy of significant strength and size to make it work.
Poland not fucking around is so good to see. They’re really saying they’re not going to be partioned again.
I love the meme where Poland asks "How many HiMARS systems did it take to fuck up Russia?" and the answer is "18...".... then Poland goes "I'll take 420 then".
only channel that makes spreadsheet interresting, great job as usual; keep up your marvelous jobs going
Amazing video as always! I missed last weeks and was thrilled to get this weeks video. Thank you for all the hard work you and the team do Perun!
Hej , hope that Scandinavia treated you well and sorry for the bad weather….. Please keep it up and would love a video with you and Mike Kofman. Your different perspective would be awesome to hear
I dream of a day, when people will learn difference between Slovakia and Slovenia
As a Pole - it's not a problem at all... :D
To be fair, Slovaks themselves seem confused on this point, seeing as they call their country "Slovensko" :p
Small update, with Zelensky's visit in Denmark and the Netherlands: Both countries are the first to confirm F-16s to Ukraine, IIRC. Don't know how much the Dutch are sending but on our end it'll be a total of 19 F-16s, with 6 being delivered around new year, a further 8 in 2024 and the last 5 in 2025. Denmark currently has 43 F-16 planes, with about 30 in active use, so it's a decent chunk of the fleet going out. We're also currently training 70 Ukrainian pilots to fly said F-16s and I believe the Dutch mentioned using some of their planes over here to help with that task.
Any idea of where and when they'll be training? I'd love to send them a couple of crates of Carlsberg. Just to make them feel welcome.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Flyvestation Skrydstrup is their primary home, but they'll probably also do some training missions from Flyvestation Aalborg, as the local army training grounds has some interesting terrain features not found in the (somewhat flatter) southern Jutland. I see and hear them here somewhat regularly. Last year Frømandskorpset (who're based at Flyvestation Aalborg) had helicopter insertion/extraction exercises under F-16 coverage. That was loud as fuck, but immense fun to watch.
Your Sunday video drops are a high point of my uchoob week. Thanks.
this channel provides probably the most comprehensive report on everything surrounding the Russian war in Ukraine. Thank you1
I can confirm 'One IFV for every Pole' is the plan.
I just want my RPG7 with multiple types of grenades - light crayons for soft targets, heavy for turning things into their primal form and substance, and tandem for stubborn MBTs.
Thanks as always. If that theoretical episode about Canadian defense spending/military ever becomes reality, I would be highly interested. Would also love to offer a local perspective on the politics surrounding the military here should that be something you are looking for.
I would be interested in the general outlook by canadian taxpayers towards the military. If I guessed a slight majority see defense spending as a lower priority than the NHS, regulation of big banks, and climate change prevention would I be correct?
Underfunding the Canadian military is one of the very few remaining bipartisan issues. Sure, opposition parties will give the current government snark for the results of it, but military funding is a very low priority for the public across the political spectrum, especially during our crushing cost of living crisis. The overall perspective tends to be "we don't need to do it because the US defends us", and that view is hard to shake. There's also various arguments, depending on one's perspective, about whether our methods of counting defense spending are either undercounting compared to NATO allies or overcounting, depending if someone wants to argue we are doing more or less then headline numbers. If I had to guess, we do some creative accounting in the personnel section regarding veteran's benefits, for it to represent such a large percentage of our spending when we don't have many personnel.@@brianjonker510
@@brianjonker510"Maybe if we keep our own influence on climate change low enough then the climate won't be destroyed by the 10 000 tanks, 10s of carriers, who knows how many naval ships, and other vehicles China will build after seeing the opportunity with NATO." - Canada probably.
Sometimes having the bigger gun gives you a better chance at peaceful cooperation and proper resolution than simply good intentions. Maybe when some of the more progressive leaning countries learn that we can actually start having some effect on threats to common prosperity like Climate Change or China. (excuse me for my rant I am a bit fed up with those people).
@@hungrymusicwolf DND is such a mess that until that's fixed I really don't think anything is going to improve much. East Coast at least is looking good with new ships being built or upgraded in Halifax. I can't really say much about anything else though.
Remember people. Poland is acquiring, through the next years, more than 1500 tanks, 1500 IFVs, 800 SAVs, 720 SPGs, 215 SPMs, 583 MLRS (including 200 HIMARS), 17 AA Systems, 31 AA batteries (including 8 Patriots), 150 Helicopters, 124 Fighters (including 32 F-35As), and other stuff.
Even the stuff is coming in the numbers stated. I can hardly imagine, how they wanna pay it and keep it operational.
Poland is economically to weak for that amount on a long term.
If there is no war within the next years, I see the majority of the equipment on the second hand table quite quickly.
It sounds great, but that means half a million people in arms, being 'non productive' from economic point of view. Good luck keeping that up for the next decade.
@@TuxCommander I think it's better to have relatively new thing still in storage for 15-25 years, than to try to use 40+ year old equipment because "that's the only thing we got left". Poland situation is similar to other post-soviet states as it doesn't have industrial base to reinvent itself, and starting point is mostly Soviet era equipment (modernization/maintenance can only go so far). Perun mentioned this is Poland's military video in 2022. Current Poland's government probably doesn't care (yet) about future budget, since it may not have to (there will be parliamentary elections in October 2023).
@@CompatibilityMadness That's true and I generally agree.
However I still think less stuff would be more beneficial.
It's about the maintenance overall which is hard on modern equipment.
Just see almost all major NATO forces.
Even economical power houses struggle to keep it tidy.
The ones with smaller forces perform much better in terms of readiness.
In a conflict numbers matter - of course.
But when reality hits, it hits mostly hard.
And I don't see Poland here to sustain a big military force for long.
And as you said, a successor government will have funny times when they get the bill.
@@TuxCommander1500 IFV is needed. This is how many Poland had BMP-1, so this is amount quite reasonable. Tanks is doubling the number of what Poland had before the war, but most of them (1000) is planned to be maintained and produced in Poland. Also USA is thinking about Abrams being repaired in Poland, so the maintaince costs of IFV and tanks probably won't bee too hard to accept
I want you to know how much I appreciate you sharing your extensive knowledge on this area. I have little or no knowledge on these subjects but have become very engaged in following the events in Ukraine. I wouldn't have a clue with out your relating the matters decorated with your wit and humor. It keeps me interested which is no small feat.❤
Hope you had a good time here in Scandinavia much love Perun! ❤
*China watching NATO rearm:* Oh FFS, nice one Russia. ...
China is at the other side of the world they're no threat to NATO they never said they have interests in putting Chinese soldiers in Europe
Nato won't be in the pacific.
It's not Nato it's Japan.
320 billion spending check for missiles, 8 new version upgraded Mogami Class Frigates 11,000 tons displacement.
2 new Aegis Destroyers
2 percent of Gdp in Military before it was 1percent.
@@haruka6672 China will go before Japan is ready
I'm waiting for this every week. Keep up the fantastic work!
We got an early one too at 9pm!
It seems that the F16 uses normal jet fuel, not hydrazine.
@@rogerterry5013 WTH are you talking about?
@@jannegrey No idea were that comment came from. F-16's do use hydrazine onboard as an emergency system to kick over the engine if it flames out or needs a quick restart. But its not a lot of it
@@krissteel4074 Did someone threw out misinfo that they fly on Hydrazine or something? Emergency restart of an engine makes sense.
Poland should look at building a Toyota factory specialised in Hiluxs, so every Pole can drive a Technical...
We have a Toyota plant making engines. The northeast part of the country already extensively uses framed lifted 4x4s with reduction and diff-locks in terms of their (mine as well) daily.
I forced myself to stop playing BG3 long enough to watch this video and you HAD TO MENTION THE GAME! 😂
At least I have 30 minutes more to play now than planned. Thank you for another excellent presentation.
I've waited, and waited, and you did it. You mentioned Canada. Thanks
Before watching:
GER data might be a bit misleading, as the GER 100 billion fund will be spent mostly in late 2023, 24+25.
Thus GER will get very close to 2% in 23, and reach it in 24+25.
Then we have elections and it's the job of the new gov to find more money for 26 and beyond.
Which is bad for long term planning...
Germany seems very inefficient?
@@ricardoabh3242 ...."Germany seems very inefficient?".....nope, we have just 💩politicians!
Yeah. If we even get to 2% in one of these years. Scholz/SPD leaders are already backpedaling from his “Zeitenwende” announcments (2%/100bn). I wonder why the green party and the FDP don’t push him way harder on this. It is one of the few topics where both parties actually agree. Strack-Zimmermann, Nanni, Hofreiter could pressure the SPD into more action like a law with a military spending plan until 2030. Even the CDU (at least the west-german-part) with Kiesewetter co. would support it. That would be very good for the investment planning of the german/EU-defense industry.
It will be close, that's why, just yesterday, Germany withdrew the records that talked about spending 2% of GDP on the army? LOL. By the way, please state how much of these 100 billion euros Germany has spent in the year since the announcement of this program. You have lovely media in germany that your government's propaganda is given to you without even a bit of doubt and fact-checking :)
@@ricardoabh3242 Not inefficient just unwilling, because our society hates the military after WW2