Housing Bubble Refuses to BUST! *Here's Why*
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 มิ.ย. 2024
- Housing Bubble Refuses to BUST! Here's Why
I get calls and emails every day from people just like you, looking for help on making their move to the Florida gulf coast. Give me a call, shoot me a text, or send me an email so I can help you make a smooth move to Florida.
Brant Peacher Florida Real Estate Agent | Agent License # SL3441599
Shoot me an email if you have any questions about the Florida Gulf Coast. brant@adoorrealestate.com
Send me a text 850-450-3878
Visit our website movingtothegulfcoast.com
I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Abby Joseph Cohen. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.
I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Abby Joseph Cohen. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
How do i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
@ryancihet555
Well her name is 'ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SERVICES'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Been debt free for two years thanks to Abby Joseph Cohen Services. So sad to see my friends in their 40s with car loans, mortgages and credit card debt.
You weren’t paying bills. Big difference
first thing needs to happen is stop commercial buying of single family homes
this!
Greed has infected the mind and soul of 80% of all Americans.
Yes it has.
Sorry I disagree on the percentage, greed 20%, hanging on just to be average 40%, how are we going to make it next month 40%.
80? ., lol more like 99.99
Everyone wants to get rich off of real estate investments and suck the wealth from the less fortunate.
@P8intballEvans said that to a friend his answer was ...cnat beat em, join em. So I'm sure we are all doomed
After being in the construction industry over 40 yrs, we decided to build another small starter home on our property for one of my married daughters because they could not find an affordable one after looking over a year. Luckily we own our land so that did not come into the equation. But this 1000sq ft house my cost was $101,000, crazy being I hired every sub on the job. Paid labor only and I bought all the materials. Did some self perform and really can’t lose on the deal because our main home mortgage is totally affordable. But insurance is ridiculous to the point of being held at gunpoint, I’m tired of paying because someone has to have waterfront homes and the hurricanes hit, claims, and up goes our insurance. It’s Broke and needs to be fixed.
Problem is, People that already own a home gained equity and they’re somewhat okay with how things are. It’s the people who didn’t own a home that are the victims
Indeed
Those owners aren't ok with higher taxes over speculated property value, equity isn't free money but a loan if they choose to cash on it , insurance is also out of control for those owners and if they're in HOAS their fees have skyrocketed too, nobody but banksters are doing ok with this nonsense
I agree with everything you said. What I think happened is - so many people moved during Covid, and they were competing for desirable properties. Those relatively small number of properties pushed up comps for everything.
There are a lot of paper millionaires, and everyone thinks their homes are worth much more than it actually is.
And we know this is true, because HOMES AREN’T SELLING RIGHT NOW, and inventory is quickly rising. My area (Tampa/St Pete), now has MORE inventory than Pre-Covid levels, and is over 4 times as much as the pandemic lows in 2021.
Eventually, these sellers will have to actually sell their homes (divorce, death, job demands, etc) and they will be shocked at how low their homes will ACTUALLY sell for.
The only reason why home prices are still (barely) rising, is because the most desirable properties are still being competed for.
I will bet you $1,000 that the median AND average home prices in Florida by the beginning of 2025 will be lower than the beginning of 2024.
Ppl can slice it anyway they want, but more than 1/3 of all properties in the US are rentals. 48 million owned by investors and businesses, but there are only 144 million homes. The shortage is directly connected with individuals or business buying them to rent. There would be a huge surplus, if most of the properties being bought weren't purchased with the intention to rent. It's going to be hard for the supply to increase, especially in Florida, if investors keep buying up the supply. Ppl come from all over the country and world to buy homes here, just to rent them.
Calling this the “Disgruntled Realtor” Lmao 😂😂 I’m Subscribing !!
Excellent info Brant. Love your videos, it's very informative to me. I like to keep up with the housing market because I'm just waiting to pounce....
We want a reasonable amount of land (8-12 acres) and a normal house. A 1985 single wide with rotting floors on 2 acres is $200,000 here. We make good money, but not enough for that dream house 😂.
My mom keeps saying we need to move.... I absolutely agree, but I asked her where? Where are we going to go? We're very lucky our rent on our 1000sqft brick house has only increased $125 since March 2020. We are in a rural area of NC but the neighborhood is declining at an alarming rate...we have a camper that moved in across the street literally dumping sewage on the ground when myself and my neighbors have shallow wells for a water supply. People doing burnouts at 2am and firing off rounds. I'm cool with the gunfire, just not at 2am on a weeknight.
I'm an engineering supervisor, and my wife is a senior IT analyst for Lowes corporate. We aren't rich by any metric, but we shouldn't be struggling. We can't even get close to affording a normal house on just 2 acres. We have a baby on the way and we want a peaceful place away from the road to raise her. The American dream is dead, and the debt problem is only getting worse. Biden's administration is worse than an angry ex girlfriend with a credit card. It's crazy, and it is absolutely unsustainable.
Thanks, a lot of good information!
ppl think crashes happen overnight, you have to give it a year to really kick in, and in our case 2 years. the fact some counties are dropping 7-10% in price decreases in a month time is kindve insane this is a massive bubble thats gonna pop bigtime.
One needs to have a serious lOOk at the inventory INCREASES in Florida (and the condo listing explosion) in particular. The time to 'resell' was 1 - 2 years ago, in most US markets. Soon, it will become next to impossible in many places, worldwide, for YEARS... if reselling, for "all cash." Reventure Consulting has most of the government/ RE industry data. However that's the tip, of an iceberg... since it's NOT very accurate, let alone... up to date! This IS a "controlled demo" (i.e. They WANT little to no "middle class - home ownership" left, here.) so it's the perfect time to get into using alternative (to all cash sale) creative terms!
Great video and information. Too bad it is true and happening. It is terrible. Housing market has been so so unaffordable for so long.
How can a house built in the 1970,be 400,000 is crazy
Great video Brandt! I'm enjoying these new series of videos you've been doing on the housing market I totally agree with you. By the way at 7 minutes 20 seconds into the video I could swear I'm seeing a UFO in the sky behind you.
I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. I got into the market early 2019 and the constant downtrends and losses discouraged me so I sold off, got back in Dec 2021 this time with guidance, Long story short, its been 2years now and I’ve gained over a million dollars following guidance from my investment adviser.
This is huge! think you can point me towards the direction of your advisor? been looking at advisory management myself.. seeking ways to invest and make more money with the uncertainty in the economy.
‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Great job
Great job, well said! You are hired…🤙😎
Brant in our area and every other area with a major military base(s) it is summer Permanent change of station (PCS) season so you will see a little bump in inventory in my opinion.
In 2006 I was looking for a new home. The agent told me I was buying at a good time because house prices were leveling off. The house I was interested in was $270K. For other reasons, I decided to rent. 1 year later, that same house sold for 190K. I always hear the housing crash happened in 2008. It was actuality 2006. By Dec 2006, the housing market was in a full free fall. Why do people think the market failed in 2008.
My prediction is not necessarily a “crash” rather a “soft landing”. Great video ❤. Greetings from West Palm Beach Florida.
Is it in the interest for the commercial investors to pay top dollar?
i make 6 figures and have lived in Punta Gorda the past 4 years and cannot afford a home. I've been saaving everything I can with inflation, but The prices need to come down majorly.
Correction can be in price or time. 7 years of wage growth with flat or nominal price growth would make for a correction.
i think..it will never go back to the way it was..
That's what people thought in 2007 haha
My home was built in 1994, I bought it in 2008 for 265,000 and it's in the N Atlanta GA metro area. Homes in our neighborhood are selling for 5-10% over listing price, roughly $240sf, so our home now $735,000. We own this home, a rental condo and a lake place we plan to move to soon outright and we are so glad we do. If prices stay where they are will probably sell current house when we move to other home, original plan was to rent for about 5 years. I think they need to start building smaller more affordable homes, I know then problem becomes density.
I have no idea if it is true, but I saw a couple of articles & videos where a few builders tried to build smaller homes, and NOBODY is interested. They're affordable new construction, but people want bigger homes, so there is no interest.
What are your thoughts on the SE Florida Condo (new construction ) market as these prices are almost 3X from 2010.
Data shows it took until ~2015 for prices to recover from the 2008 crash. Rates hit historic lows and everyone that could afford started to buy. Real estate investors gobbled up every bit of inventory they could and turned them into rentals because of the low cost to borrow thus reducing inventory and driving up prices. Florida marketed itself of some anti government, anti-vaccine paradise and almost a million people moved there post pandemic. Most from high cost of living areas, thus, driving up prices.
In 2008 hedge funds weren't buying homes to flip to other hedge funds that are renting them out . I've see it first hand as a painting contractor 🎉
Let's pray the People have Enough Sense to Not allow another 4 years of this Nightmare administration
Ha you think that’s what matters😂😂😂
@@AffirmativeAffirMATEFacts are facts regardless if you acknowledge them or not.
@@AffirmativeAffirMATE if you don’t, you need to open your eyes.
Trump 2024!
RFK
Good analysis. It is like playing Musical Chairs now. The music will stop...
There houses for sale all over portcharlotte and north port area. People are wanting out of Florida and the foreclosures are up
they're still DOUBLE what they were 2 years ago, which is why they're for sale but not selling.
In my neighborhood they were asking $280k for a 2 bedroom/2bathroom, 1 car garage home that was built in 1982.
Banks shouldn't be allowed 30/35 years financing.... 15 year the most should be allowed, that definitely would help bring homes prices down too....
Texas is going the same way my insurance is almost as much as my mortgage.
My Houston property's insurance went from $1400 to $4100 in one year... it's disgusting... nothing happened in our area either!
To your point about foreign / domestic investors continuing to buy - they have the capital and backing to play the long game. At worst, they get bailed out like svb or the subprime mortgage crisis. They were way over leveraged and regulating authorities knew it but did not take any effective action because thats SOP for our government when it comes to regulating markets. There’s no consequences for them making bad investments. If the gov allowed/enabled true free market economies then we would see some level of stabilization. Individuals have and will continue to bear the brunt of costs.
Inventories in Florida have already risen back to pre pandemic levels and builders there are also building houses like crazy there. Not sure about your specific area, but the crash in Florida is already in the early stages of happening
Great assessment of the market, it’s been very confusing for the past 5 years. I have tried to rely on history and experience to read the market and I’m baffled. I’m sitting things out at the moment as far as investing because I have no clue what the future holds.
Judging by the Dow every time the Fed speaks, the general population and wall street are addicted to cheap credit. Everyone is waiting for rates to come down both the Fed and mortgage rates. People have bought the last 2 years with the thought that they will just refinance. Very few people have ever lived through a raising rate environment for 5, 10, 15 years. They have no concept of not having a never ending supply of cheap money.
It's going to blow because the Fed simply can't lower rates. Not now not this decade.
You just hit the nail on the head...The market is reacting more strongly to news of possible rates cuts/weak economy than it is of a strong economy with "higher for longer" rates. Makes no sense...
Banks 'in bed' with rental house investors are to blame.
If everyone would wait about a year or even 2 years to buy or sale and put a halt on the market and play a waiting game. Then insurance companys and banks will change thier mind on how they decide they want to rob us. Only way to stop it is to stop letting them do it to us!! Makes sense doesnt it?
If I was an investor I would still be buying as I think they are worried that if the bottom drops out of the market people will not want to sell.
2008 was subprime mortgages of people who had low credit scores. This group has homeowners with higher credit scores...more responsible adults than in 2008....so they won't break as easily.
Simple. Starter home 3 bed 2 bath 1,400 sq/ft in hoa has been up to long. Never mind search 4,000 sq ft house in whole state.
People are having difficulties Paying Utilities in a Rental Never mind a mortgage taxes and Insurance.....So Your Partially right....But even with adjusted House prices....the Economy eg: Food Electric Insurance Gas auto maintenace on there older car child Care and every other staple neccesasity needed has Not Allowed most people consider the chance of putting together enough Money for a Down and meet all the New additional expenses of Home ownership Payment
If you are renting you are paying the mortgage, taxes and insurance just for someone else. Problem for many to buy is the down payment they want, most people can't come up with 2k much less 20-40k
In late 2005 it peaked in Florida, it took years before it hit bottom it will do the same thing again. I sold all my RE at that time in Florida. It will take time, when jobs go so goes RE. It's just starting give it time. It could be many things that could start it, hurricane, massive RE taxes, massive RE insurance and it takes years. Be patient, it's coming. Forgot about the stock market.
I think I bought one of those houses in April 2006. By August I was upside down $80k. Took 12 years to break even.
its not real estate going up....its the dollar losing massive value bc of massive printing...
What is clearly different from 08 is we have home prices going up way to fast rental market is insanely overpriced the working poor many will be homeless soon. Its not even debatable gonna be a bad recession an real estate crash.
Inventory is exploding here in southwest FL. Prices are already coming down.
If rates are about to get cut I think it saves us from a housing crash.
Not one chance in hell that saves this market. When they start cutting it will be because the economy is starting to crash and companies will start cutting jobs. It's coming you can take that to the bank.
I am less concerned with the price as I am the interest rate. My current house is also over valued so I can take my extra dollars from this home and transfer it into my new overpriced home. I don’t want to go from sub 3 to 6-7%. I wish there were more assumable loans out there.
Isn’t this kind of the problem though? I hope you dont do that because you will be overextending yourself. You’re erasing all of the equity you have now.
@@alyross2850 I don’t lose it, I move it. I still have the same equity.
@@michaelsd284 Would I like the prices to go down? Yes. That is the cure. It is preventing renters and those who are in smaller houses who want to move up from buying. My point is that my house has the same extra 40% as my new house would. For me it is a wash. For my case the interest rate is what would significantly increase my monthly payment.
Brant, come fish with me, and we'll discuss this subject and many others relevant to the future.
Hey Thanks For the Invite....Ironically I Was Securing my Boat at the Dock during this Flash 40mph windstorm we've been dealing with most of the Day...
Love Fishing.
Brian
Florida is not for everyone.
The home prices has risen because we let it happen. Takes a group effort!! Stop selling so high and taking advantage of it. Put a halt on it all until nothing is for sale and then the banks and insurance companys cant put a monopoloy on it. Thats only way to fix it
Trump 2024!!!! I’m 33 I am the general manager of a family cleaning company, and making the most money me and my wife have ever made together and my credit is almost to 800 and I still can’t afford to buy a house for my family!! I tried to buy a house about 5 months ago and for a 300,000$ home I was going to have to pay 1,070,000$ over 30 years with a 7 percent interest rate!! We are living in circus world!!!
Smart man I would buy an old RV an live in it they pay for that insanely over priced house.
ive been saying it for a while, we need a wall street crash and correction.. whether the catastrophe is natural or man made, its gotta happen, a mini "reset" if you will.
You have to remember for those that dont know, the problem started when Gov Ron Desantis signed the anti imigration law and more the 500k construction and farm workers left Florida in a three months period same happened in Texas. No more new home or construction were built and the inventory stopped. Solution the market has to be flooded with new homes. The construction migrant wont return even offering then visas to return until the Gov is out of office. Sad reality that here in Flirida we have to live with.
LOL! That is the least fact based piece of Liberal narrative in recent history. Do you work for the Biden administration?
It’s because I have a 2.5 interest rate that has now become an assets that’s beats inflation. I’m never getting rid of that house. It will be a rental worse case. Not going anywhere period!!!!
What’s different that 2008 is all the outside money coming in .
@@michaelsd284 yes all that is true. I mean in Florida the growth and outside money coming in is much different than 2008. State is basically growing at an unsustainable rate. It’s not locals buying all these million dollar homes .
@@michaelsd284 that’s exactly what I’m saying .
It going to crash soon.
Great video! Agree on lower prices (affordable prices) at 6-1/2 to 7-1/2 percent interest would be healthy or at least affordable to most households. Right now everything from gas to insurance to groceries and on and on is overpriced. Remember in November your vote matters a lot!