Carvana's Hail Mary Debt Restructuring
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- In our latest deep dive, we revisit Carvana, the online used car marketplace that had once been on the verge of bankruptcy. Our previous video, "Carvana’s Impending Bankruptcy," highlighted the company's precarious financial situation. This time, we explore Carvana's hail Mary turnaround strategy.
Our previous Carvana video: • Carvana's Impending Ba...
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0:00 - 3:26 Intro
3:27 - 8:50 Debt Restructuring
8:51 Profitability? - ภาพยนตร์และแอนิเมชัน
Not meant to be saved. This was a pump and dump operation.
Don't make fraud allegations lightly. Bankruptcy risk was removed short term, causing people to buy and shorts to cover
@@samsonsoturian6013 Considering the company's ceo is a convicted felon of bank fraud, who said anyone was taking it lightly?
@@tarekyared4404 Exactly, in fact the old man laid low for a decade after he was convicted of fraud before starting this Carvana Scam then handed over the company to his son. We can be sure that the apple doesn't fall far from the tree..........
They need to sell 1 million cars per year at 600 dollar or 300k cars per year at 1900 profit for interest payment alone.
They have 39 machines as long as they're all kept running. Used cars aren't vulnerable to recessions because prices go up in hard times
@@samsonsoturian6013 And how hard are these times for people to keep buying used cars?
Carvana is currently being pumped by Wallstreetbets, and can implode any day and for any (or no) reason.
Unless you bought earlier this year, it’s way too risky to buy now.
lol nothing is being pumped by deadstreetbets dude.. the subreddit is not even that alive anymore.
But yes, it is a bit too risky now. Still one of the most frustrating stocks ive ever dealt with. But after seeing bullshit like Farfetch and First Republic Bank get de-listed and shareholders getting royally fucked Ive decided to not trust any American traded stock when it comes to some "savior" or "buyout" talk. Been too many times now that shareholders have been destroyed completely
Wsb is not big enough to pump cvna
Some people did YOLOs many years ago and made a lot. But the stock market is a zero sum game. For someone that gains, another loses. And typically it's a big bank winning, not the average citizen.
WallStreetBets and "the Apes" aren't the same but there is an overlap
So you're saying, "short the shit out dis muhfugga". Thanks for the tip & Merry Xmas.
I sold my accord at carvana. When I was there, there was 10 people in line, all also selling cars. Maybe I just don't know how it works lol, but literally no one was buying a car.
You can have it delivered at Carvana and depending when you sold there's no telling
To say conventional dealerships get free marketing from having their inventory visible is to ignore the premium they pay for such visible real estate. They could enjoy significant savings by storing their inventory on cheap real estate, but they pay extra for real estate with good visibility and treat the difference as a marketing expense.
It's not just advertising. Picture this. There are two used car lots. One is right down the street. The other is a 45 minute drive. You know nothing about either one. Which one are you going to?
There are two grocery stores in my area. I go to the one I like less because it's much closer.
Car dealerships are typically on cheap land visible from the interstate on the edges of town. This is by design. Cities do not want dealerships taking up prime real estate as it's a low employment eyesore and dealerships need lots of space cheap. Nothing about dealership lots is expensive or premium but it is ideal for their business model. Cities will often incentive dealerships to move further out as the city grows and their space becomes more valuable for other uses.
@@ReflexVE Capitalism does that automatically. The land becomes more valuable the more useful it is. It doesn't require a conspiracy or government action.
@@Jordan-Ramses I was a planning Commissioner for 12 years. I'm literally telling you how it works. You don't have to believe me, I don't really care. The initial poster stated that the real estate used for car dealerships was expensive due to location. My point was that it's the opposite, it's cheap by design and cities encourage this model with zoning and sometimes direct incentives. My city literally created a special zone that only permitted car dealerships to permit them to shift allowed location over time.
@@ReflexVE I said it was unnecessary. I didn't say the government never did it.
Carvana is a scummy company. I've dealt with them for years as a dealership technician. They do absolutely nothing to their cars before selling them. It's the customer's responsibility to take the car to a shop after buying it to get any issues fixed. Yes Carvana pays the repair bill, but they should have done that BEFORE selling it, not after.
A lot of people are too lazy so caravans wins again
That's more a symptom of their overcentralization and blitzscaling. It's not like your local owner/operator where you just call their landline and get the owner.
Let’s not forget the founder/ceo is simply a puppet and company is run by his father who also owns a large car seller called drive time. They both dumped their shares when stock hit ATH.
Man, you are buying an USED car, what do you expect????
@@dannthegentleman4261
Buying a used car from a national dealer. The least they can do is get it fixed
As someone who had to buy a new vehicle during the worst of the supply crunch, I probably could have benefitted from using Carvana. There was only 1 option within hundreds of miles of me, so I took it. Now that supply has recovered and dealer lots are full, I can't imagine using Carvana unless the prices are extremely competitive. I don't want to spend thousands on something without physically seeing it first.
Carvana gave me a quote of $5,000 for a car that I sold for $8000 within one hour of listing it for private sale. Will never use them.
Lmao.. That's normal for Car Stealers..
Uh, no. That's a fact of the dealer's spread. Carvana would have sold your car for 8k to that same buyer. That's how they make money, and people put up with it rather than do all the work themselves finding a buyer
@@Trumppowerno one is accused of stealing anything
I bought a used car this year and my experience with carvana is that they had less variety of cars than the physical dealerships near me and were significantly more expensive than comparable cars at the dealership. I don't know if this is a typical experience or if I just have more dealerships near me than most people, causing a decrease in price from competition, but they weren't a good choice for me.
If you look at the competition you want to displace and see it is mostly highly local owner/operators, there might be a reason for it
If you bought calls when the earlier video came out. You’d be up a lot.
This video will now mark my exit. Thanks, please do BigLots next.
So basically Carvana works like a normal new car dealership by floor planning its inventory as collateral tor its debts?
Yep. Just a big car dealer with a gimmick to save a little money.
Cvna being up 100% in a month says a lot about the current market
More like how low they went and how risky the business is
I read somewhere that the owners were raiding cash out of the company too.
Hopefully Carvanah will be able to evolve, mayby into a Sharpedo?
Thank you for focusing on Carvana. It's again pumped to $60, a Market cap of 13 Billion Dollar.
Anyone shorting, be careful, it's up 1200% Year-to-Date.
Isn't the new debt also securitized on buildings or cars?
I'll be buying puts and implementing call credit spreads on cvna. Wish me luck 🤞
@@pazuzuxxgood luck
It would not surprise me to see the insiders selling their stock. Cashing out seems like a smart move for them. I see they have former Vice President Dan Quale on their board.
What could a not very popular former VP bring to this company?
The same status that Henry Kissinger, George Schultz and other well known people brought to Theranos. @@ccrider8483
@@ccrider8483Laughs
I sold my car to vroom during pandemic high , also shorted their stock. Double win
Top work!
The idea is great. People want used cars but don't want the used car buying experience. I bought my 2014 Lexus from Texas Direct Auto. Found the one I wanted and had it delivered to my office. Price was fair and it was a no hassle experience. Would buy from them again.
No hassle negotiations is how they get you. Give up convenience for no hassle experience, pay 20% above going prices for same make/model/condition vehicle! Yikes
You must be long or paid by Ernie Garcia to make these posts
Thank you for your opinion. Don't you think they mostly sell broken cars though?
Yes, but they aren't really saving any money on their business model versus small businesses
They’re still having problems giving customers clean titles? That’s not good. 👿
Lenders need to see titles when making loans.
excellent analysis
Excellent unit economics thanks
Excellent analysis, as always. It's a sick dog with healthy fleas.
I just brought a car for carvana took it to the dealership for the computer diagnostic test!! That same day!! Thank God I did because it’s under warranty they are paying to get everything fix!!
up 1000 percent this year crazy!!
A friend of mine worked at Carvana for ages while in college. She told me they paid her, partly, in stock.
I remember thinking "Wtf? what company pays their lowest level employees in stock?" ( a very poorly managed one )
I’ve only bought used cars throughout my life, most were close to new or excellent condition. I had a friend but a stolen car from Carvana which was like de-advertisement for me to stay the hell away from Carvana.
Carvana pushed up the cost of used cars drastically and should go under for that reason alone.
Nevermind their other shady doings
I still don't understand how a person can buy a car from a vending machine and feel like , this is normal, why not?
30 Days return no questions asked, a couple thousand test miles are the 2 reasons I can think of
people are literally doing that with their dates.
@@kendi1417A packet of dates is a bit different to a car though.
The only thing those vending machines do is cause the cost of their used cars to be more expensive.
Could they use the increased share price to sell enough new shares to pay down the debt?
If you short this for the bankruptcy play. You DCA. If you have $100,000 account you would short like 100 shares and sell put against it (basically the reverse of covered calls). If it goes higher just keep selling monthly puts. You would only add on if it goes above 100. Add short 50 shares. To push your average up so you can keep selling puts under cost basis.
Your portfolio should be rising. You should also hedge by owning KMAX with money received from selling cvna stock and put premiums.
Be prepared to invest long term and be down massively before making massive profits.
nice
Solid
I'll be buying puts and implementing call credit spreads on cvna. Wish me luck 🤞
You'll face serious iv crush if you buy puts
The options are expensive due to the market pricing in +100% moves
Carvana is not the first attempt to mass market used cars and they won't be the last.
I look forward to the next version in about 5-7 years.
The whole Carvana business model was a pump and dump scheme, and it worked. Even if Carvana goes under, the original investor before it went Public is rolling on cash.
I dont know why but a auto retailer thought the VC Growth above profit would be sustainable. It has not been
i hope they either get better or rebrand to sharpedo successfully
Don't think they are able to serve the delayed loan in the future. Not all old cars can be sold (thus additional depreciation cost in future) and with new car production on the full production swing.
Carvana, the company that managed to take an already crappy business in the form of car dealerships, and make it even worse by adding crap tonnes of capex! Truly genius.
My father-in-law bought an SUV from them this October, the car fax said it was fine, Carvana said it was fine, the mechanic, on the other hand, said it needs 5k worth of work just to be safe. So, we'll never do business with this outfit again. Buyers be very aware.
CarFax doesn't tell you if it needs to be repaired... It tell you the maintenance history and if the title is clean, and any accidents reported.
Run from anything featured on Mad Money.
All the blue chips and tech giants? Yiu should rephrase and say run from CEOs that desperately want to be featured on Mad Money
can you make a clip about farfetch?
Car dealerships don't have to be horrible. Remember Saturn? No hassle no commision fixed prices on cars. Dealers can also sell online and deliver. The business model of lose money for years to compete and take marketshare just doesn't work here.
Who was the risk management genius who agreed to 4.9% interest on $750M of 2029 Carvana bonds?
Insanity.
someone who is getting a nice bonus and getting tfo of the company
It was the Covid Pump. People were getting mortgages at 3%
@@JogBirdput that back up your butt where you got it
Because the creditors are at risk of losing billions if Carvana defaults, I figure they’ll continue to kick the can down the road for as long as possible… I feel like Carvana will likely be around for a while because of that very reason..
Vending machine cars are cool and smart
Never seen a vending machine sell pre-owned food
Vending machines in general need to spread just so we don't have as many underpaid jobs like cashier
Whenever a company describes themselves as "disruptive", you should always parse that as "unsustainable business model". Either they don't actually know how to properly implement the new strategy that's supposed to turn their chosen industry on its head, or it just wasn't a good strategy to begin with which is why nobody has been using it.
Cramer's pick? Bullish!
Buy buy buy while big boys sell sell sell into the volume!
Am I weird for wanting to see a dealer and the car face to face if I'm puting out a dencet chunk of money?
The one thing I've learned from all of your videos is that it's good to be in advertising
i bought a gang of stock the minute you started talking shit about them last year. best decision i ever made. not selling yet either
We’re asking if it can…. But we should be asking if it should lol.
I would say you're wrong about that brick and mortar having free marketing from a parking lot. I think the internet model is the best because you get people that are actually looking for a car. People driving by are not potential customers because they already have a vehicle.
Chip shortages always wreck everything. Running out of Doritos SUCKS.🤬
Revolutionary. Great concept
Sarcasm, or?
The competition were highly localized owner/operators. There was a reason for that.
@harm991 it was a decent idea to make cars cheaper by removing costs but there's a reason car dealers are local
1 year ago you posted a video titled: "Carvana's impending bankruptcy" lmao
It was true at the time. Recall Keith Gill's racket was buying companies with pending bankruptcy knowing all they needed to do was survive to double his money.
Carvana still has dealerships. You just don't buy from a salesman. All over the country that processes cars.
Let's see...gimmicky, crap operations, management that's shady AF...what could have brought about the downfall of these crazy kids?
I tell you why they are failing. I bought a 2011 avalon from them for about 18k. They brought it to me not detailed, the transmission was shot already at 70k miles, the tires were out of balance, the radio didn't work, and it hadn't had an oil change in 10k miles at least. They didn't even look at the car beyond taking a picture & even those were out of date where the interior was torn up really bad with no warnings about that so I sent it back... that's why they are bankrupt not because of us.
Sh*t like this wouldn't happen except for certain investment losses being tax deductible.
if they’re supposed to make 3x the profit on cars now and are losing people from decreased advertising, how are you not saying they’re going to go under?
Major investor "Ernest Garcia the II was a convicted felon for bank fraud for his role in the Charles Keating Lincoln Savings Bank collapse". Thanks for helping drive the entire country into major recession.... Serves em' right, though I admit I like the Carvana business model.
Fuck Carvana, they offered me $100 for my old car while Carmax was able to give me $3400 lmao
I can't see how this one isn't an obvious zero.
The question is not can it be saved but should it be saved.
There’s a reason why the owner aka ceo is consistently selling shares? I think 7/31/24 shit will hit the fan.
Cant sell cars without titles
@8:30 careful with your graphs. having different top end values on the y axis is deceptive. I know it's only off by 500m, but it's misleading at the least to show 2030 principal payments to be the same size bars when 1 is significantly less. (although your conclusions are correct :) just something to watch.)
So short it? Gotcha
+1200% YTD, be careful with shorting
Shorts and puts are expensive because the market is pricing in +100% moves. I wouldn't touch it
It can be, it is not a horrible business model in my opinion dealerships are terrible.
is a horrible business model Beast
Agreed, also good experience with them.
@@sanjayrajsoni Looks like the Carvana marketing racket has done a good job buying fake reviews from The Ponjaab
sounds like a short
Green Forest Farm 👍channel
Interesting presentation, but some of the footage you're throwing in is downright erratic.
Isnt Carvana owned by Autonation?
No it is an independent company. Stock symbol CVNA. Not a company I would invest in.
No, Carvana’s CEO is the son of DriveTime owner but the companies themselves are separate.
117.00$ as of may 11 2024
It's never a good idea to name your company so close to Nirvana. You need to be unalive to reach Nirvana. But the way this company is going, I think it's Neraka.
no its a dead fish
A I narrator?
Their customer service sucks. These little squeezes are nice though.
Scamming is good for business?
Blitzscaling and overcentralization. When you go from zero to a million customers in a couple years and no customer service department to a big one in a few years, you can imagine exactly how crazy that office is
@@harm991no one is conning anyone except you
so puts in 2025
No it can't
With actually good management, the model is fine. But the CEO was just so interested in inside dealing.
Absolutely F useless financial analysis and business case proposals. They took on lots of debt to buy seriously overpriced investments like the car auction business.... it was effectively debt funded costing c10%.... I'd bet that they bought it for a yield far below that. As a stand alone investment they needed to model how much additional volume and consequential costs would track to ensure at least break even. I bet they didn't factor in things like loss of auction volume with conpeting car dealers who didn't want to be associated with Carvarna. Anyway, another useless business like GME and all the others 'to the moon' on WSB.
We bought a car from Carvana, same for few other friends.
All had a good experience.
You didn't call customer service
Carvana? I don't think so. Nice idea but too much going against it ipso facto.
Nah, it's Carmegedon for them.
Some greedy CEO looking for a cash out ?
Why does all these narrators sound the same
They seem like an overpriced middleman for auto trader, lol
Nah
Nope, the business model is garbage.
commenting from your moms basement on youtube videos must be a better one right?
Why?
@@harm991because the stock lost him money
first one here
Same as cazoo terrible business model
Please spell receivables correctly.
Nope, it is dead
Why?
@@harm991 business model is not sustainable. The debt restructuring just prolonged the inevitable
They sold over 400,000 vehicles in 2022. Not world domination level sales, but enough to keep the machines running. The problem is the only buyers are people who live in the same city as the machine and even then local dealers are profitable
Bro everytime you make a video it goes the opposite direction, inversing u makes millions
This just shows how dangerous it is to follow the advice of folks like you and the tiktok crowd. From predicting bankruptcy to 10 folds rally is telling to how "opinions" from wanna be financial analysts can ruin lifes
This stock rally advantage is built on the misery of ppl who panicked and sold low.
Gay
Whut?
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