"You have to grow a crystal the size of a Volkswagen." See, he IS an American!! We'll use anything to measure - except the metric system. Fur tree for scale.
“Fur tree”, huh? First, learn how to spell bub, it isn’t FUR it’s FIR tree. Second, I’ve never heard anyone compare the size of anything to a fir tree.
Just a FYI Peter, EUV wasnt developed by ASML. It was originally invented by the US Department of Energy as a moonshot project in the 90s that ultimately was successful. The US Government owns the patents and licensed the technology to a small number of US companies, which ASML purchased one to gain access to the EUV patent. But the US put major stipulations on them, including yearly audit reports. That is the reason why the US government can strongarm ASML regarding sales of their EUV machine because it is all US Government technology.
i think thats the same with mobile nuclear plant tech (on war ships etc) but they haven't really let any company get their hands on the I.P. because reasons...
Yearly audit reports? Who does the audits? What kind of audits are they (u are talking about an industry with REAL standards for the work that's done) or are they compliance reviews done by the US government?
Several things in your comment do not add up: (i) patents from the 90s are for sure not in force today, as the maximum duration of a patent is 20 years (Paris convention of 1883); (ii) UV lithography dates from the 90s, but the tech to be able to use shorter and shorter wavelengths was developed over the years (see e.g. Moorse's law), among others by ASML, and today's E-UV (which does not date from the 90's but is a recent development), other than the accumulated know how, has very little to do with the UV litho of 30 years ago (e.g. using a mere UV lamp); and (iii) (and here I'm rather guessing) the reason why ASML (as TSMC, NVidia) receive to a certain extend "orders" from the US government (as well as other governments), is because they control critical technologies (military, industrial); any companies controlling such critical tech, operate under certain constraints imposed by governments...
Watch out for Singaporean companies. To avoid Western bans on the transfer of technology, the PRC companies often operate through HK or Singaporean middlemen.
I've an accountant friend in Singapore. Singapore has long been a terrific place for Chinese Manufacturers to set up a shell Retail Company to both avoid Chinese Taxation, and keep from exchanging the Foreign Currency they sell goods for into Yuan in the first place. If they sell in USD, and pay their suppliers in USD, it keeps the CCP from knowing the true extent of their entire business.
Some clarification is in order here...2-3 nanometers is NOT the atomic level. Atomic level is 0.1-0.2 nanometer (1-2 Angstroms). For those into wafer fab, just remember that the real operational limit for lithography is NOT defined by the precision and accuracy of the lithography equipment. It is defined by when normal state electron tunneling starts to be a problem. For an insulating system like inorganic oxides (silicon, chromium, ...), with dielectric constants in the range of 5 or so, that limit is around 20 Angstroms (2 nanometers).
@@kevintewey1157.... LOL.... makes no difference how many engineers they put out, everything they produce is second hand and far from cutting edge.... China wouldn't have anything unless it was either stolen or given to them from the West😂
I work at ASML, our customers only use the EUV (EXE 5500) machines for the transistors, after those 4 -10 layers are done the wafers go into our DUV (NXT 2150, NXT 2100, NXT1980Fi, NXT1470, NXT 870) Machines for the signal and power busses to be layered up and then some go on to our older XT machines for the external connections to be built up. So for every EUV machine we sell, that needs 6 DUV machines for the rest of the production line for those chips. BTW ASML's DUV machines are way better than Nikon or Cannon, because we have immersion lithography where we have a bubble of ultra pure water between the wafer and the chip (Only on some NXT machines) and we have customers working those NXT machines in the 7 nM node.
@@jackthorton10 They could have been manufactured in the Middle States or Eastern Europe, countries that respect intellectual property and allow for the protection of capital through the courts. Apparently, $400-$500 a month for an employee was too much for your corporations. Your children will pay for this greed.
I worked in the computer chip industry in the early 1990-2000s and I remember the days of calibrating chip making instruments. Each one ran slightly different. I always argued we needed an automated procedure to do this. When I went to the biomedical industry in the 2010 I felt like I was entering the Stone Age. They were way farther behind in making their instruments run consistently between each instrument. Their calibration and alignment procedures are at least 20 years behind the chip making companies
Hmmm. I worked for Applied Materials in STI around the same time and don't remember having device calibration issues. Maybe they had this problem for other processes.
@ I did say it was an issue. They all ran in spec. The problem is it was a very manual process. No two systems were exactly the same. I remember Intel we had to meet slightly tighter specifications to meet their Copy Exact spec,
EUV and DUV refer to photographic techniques not etching. The light is used to expose a photoresist film that has been deposited on the wafer. After exposure the resist is developed leaving a pattern on the wafer. The pattern is then etched into the layer under the resist. The tool used to etch is most likely some form of plasma etch, In the past and for some extremely difficult layers that do not form volatile compounds when plasma etched a wet chemical etch can be used. The layers being etched can vary in composition from pure silicon, doped silicon, nitrides oxides, and metals. The pattern printed into the resist is made when the light passes through a mask. Light, as you might know, diffracts as it goes through a slit. The mask is actually many slits that allow light to pass through. To avoid the interference patterns created by the slits the pattern for the mask is passed through a very sophisticated computer adjustment process that accounts for the diffraction. So printing the pattern on the wafer takes more than just the printer itself. There are many technical steps to making the mask used to pattern the wafer before it is used in the printer. As important to the manufacturing process as the printer is it is not the only limiting step in the process. Knowledge on how to anneal the wafer, drive the dopants, stress the silicon, how to form defect traps and how to deposit materials is equally as challenging. Lastly, cleanliness is critical. Knowledge on how to keep the wafer clean at all times is not common or easy to come by. Simple things like the temperature of a shipping container can cause contamination that prevents the chip from being assembled. The type of perfume worn by the person in the clean room can cause issues. The type of clean room suit material or washing technique of the suit can cause an issue. The type of filters used to scrub the air and many more seemingly unimportant factors can cause difficulties with cleanliness. The Chinese can and have in the past overcome all these issues by sending individuals into wafer fabrication facilities to gain this knowledge. I would expect over time they can do the same with the current technology. I.E. don't under estimate them.
It would be helpful if Peter Zeihan got in touch with someone with a undergraduate degree in physics at least. Focusing 13nm UV photons below their wavelength isn't possible, and moreover, all these machines will need to be fine tuned and assembled on site at the fab, it doesn't get easier with smaller UV wavelengths, it gets more difficult.
Well copied from somewhere, but all you mention is the usual processing. DUV and EUV are not strict technical terms. They just refer to shorter and shorter UV light wavelengths. The problem is that the resolution of the patterns on the silicon wafers, thus the amount of components per unit of area, is limited by the wavelength of the light used. The shorter the wavelenght the higher its energy, so to obtain the shortest possible wavelengths (necessary to achieve the highest resolutions), it becomes very complicated, and that's where most of the development lays, i.e. the UV light source (it's called "Extreme UV", because it's at the extreme of the UV spectrum, almost near to X rays (and the tech to produce it is also extreme...)). All the other steps you refer are "just adapted" to work with the new wavelength (extreme cleanliness, extreme photoresist formulations,...)
I worked at Walter Siltronic in the 90s. So many ways an ingot can go bad. But gravity is the biggest problem. Material science in space is the future. AI is a space race.
As someone that has worked in the semi industry for 20 yrs, it’s always fun to see Peter stumble his way just trying to understand the basics of semi fabrication. No you don’t make wafers at the fabs, and you certainly don’t grow silicon ingots out of “melted silicon oxide.” DUV is still used for 95% of the lithography processes, even at TSMC. EUV is only used for a few critical layers due to cost savings. Having EUV doesn’t give you magic power on advanced nodes, just look at how badly Intel is doing in spite of the fact they had the most advanced ASML high N.A. machine. The sanctions won’t even slow down the Chinese. All they did was cutting out billions of potential revenue from US/European/Japanese semi companies and creating future competitions that didn’t exist before.
He first said China is very good at relabeling products, selling through third-party nations, or finding other creative solutions to tariffs. He then went on to explain how the world's most advanced chip makers were going to block China from buying their best products... Is it too large a leap of logic for him to see that he himself already outlined how they will sidestep those restrictions?
I mean that's how they get stuff OUT of China and around Tariffs... doesn't necessarily work the other way around getting stuff IN. It can work but it depends on how dedicated TSMC is to screening and it looks like the answer is fairly dedicated.
Peter as called out before your understanding of semiconductors is limited. Many EVs can operate on chips made by Chinese company SMIC. Not all EVs need to have NVIDIA chipsets if they aren’t running self driving software. And Biden admin missed fact that equipment companies were getting around his “surgical” restrictions. Samsung right now is making 3nm chips on applied materials process tools. SMIC is making 7nm chips on applied process tools. And issue is less about not using EUV and more on lack of industry support for tools in China. Can assure you that millions of Chinese EVs sold don’t have TSMC chipsets.
Samsung and Intel are abandoning the process of multi-layer patterning on the DUV, the same process that SMIC is using to make their 7nm and lower chips due to low yield. Plus the chips that are deemed good from this process take up too much power when running. Both Samsung and Intel are moving toward High NA EUV for chip production that is 3nm and lower.
The reason why TSMC got ahead of Samsung and Intel and was able to corner 90% of the high-end chip market was their decision in 2008 to adopt the EUV while Intel and Samsung stayed with the DUV. With the EUV, they were able to get better yield and better performance chips and sell at a cheaper price.
@@SumTingWong888 agreed but that is market driven difference. China can produce chips needed to run EVs and smart phones. Are they market leading? No but does it enable Chinese companies to still sell millions of phones and cars? Absolutely.
@@SumTingWong888 you do know even TSMC still uses DUV and other process tools . Not all chips they make are on EUV. People in the industry understand this.
What do you expect from this guy Peter! He doesn't even know the subject of geopolitics that well, the topics he talk most about (except propaganda), so forget about him having any knowledge on semiconductor chip! lol
@@CharveL88 I hope people have caught on to scams like this by now. Always the same. This type and the one talking about financial advisors with 90+ bot comments saying how much it helped them are the most common that I've seen.
Must say, thank you for the about 1.5sec of paus in the end of the vid to give you time to pause and go back before youtube takes you on to another vid it thinks I need to see, but usually not me. And also prevent a couple of commercial.
And in May various news outlets reported Huawei will produced their own 3nm chip sets with DUV. I think PZ is grossly underestimating China's determination and R&D focus while Trump is living rent free in Peter's head.
@@leonana11 For some reason my previous comment was deleted so I'll try again. In May it was reported that Hua - wei is about to to produce 3 nm wafers using DUV.
@@kotto2001 You don't seem to realize that we don't care what Taiwan is a part of. We're done enriching others and exporting jobs and we're ready now to bring them back home.
@@kotto2001 You don't seem to realize that we don't care what the island formerly known as Formosa is a part of. We're done enriching and exporting jobs to hostile countries and we're ready now to start bringing them home.
Sorry boss they'll bring the factories back but they're not bringing the jobs back. It will be automated. I actually don't know how much the chip stuff will actually be of use. So it actually has to do with how AI works the big fancy Blackwell chips brute force in making an algorithm of all the little weights is the expensive need a lot of power part. It's going to be really tough to regulate when they build on top of that and I read a lot of research prepub papers in the AI space it's almost 6 Chinese names and then a Stacy from Stanford. My point is the way we do AI is pretty dumb and inefficient. There's already a bunch of ways to improve that. This artificial constraint will probably backfire.
A few years back (2017) 10nm was the cutting edge and was the absolute pinnacle this is (and likely always will be) more than sufficient for most weapons systems. The exception will be in really smart AI based solutions that can gobble up acres of 5nm or better silicon to get the job done. These restrictions are less about stopping the current set of weapons in production and more about trying to make an edge for the West in the next gen AI driven smart munitions, technologies and systems.
SMIC's 7nm process technology uses complex multiple-patterning processes due to limitations in its EUV lithography. This restricts output and strains SMIC's capacity. Here's some related information about SMIC's 7nm process: Yield SMIC's 7nm process has a yield rate of less than 50%, which is well below the industry norm of 90%. Comparison to TSMC Industry sources say that SMIC's prices for 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC's, and the yield is less than one-third of TSMC's
@@kolviczd6885SMIC's 7nm process technology uses complex multiple-patterning processes due to limitations in its EUV lithography. This restricts output and strains SMIC's capacity. Here's some related information about SMIC's 7nm process: Yield SMIC's 7nm process has a yield rate of less than 50%, which is well below the industry norm of 90%. Comparison to TSMC Industry sources say that SMIC's prices for 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC's, and the yield is less than one-third of TSMC's
Zeihan really needs to take an intro course on semiconductors and lithography tech. TSMC’s “secret” for achieving its market dominance has little to do with materials or any specific equipment. China can duplicate all of that through espionage or alternate sources. The accumulated acumen of thousands of dedicated employees, aka “know how”, is what makes the processes at TSMC work to achieve useful (and profitable) yields in these small feature sizes. China can’t duplicate or steal that know how, but they might develop it over the next 10-15 years.
@@landontesar3070 Pretty soon SMIC will use up all the replacement parts and components for their DUV lithography machine from ASML and can't replace them. Then you will see if they can still produce any more semiconductor chips.
@@landontesar3070 LOL, go do some research then we can talk. If SMIC can do what TSMC does, then Huawei doesn't need to have a third buyer who wasn't sanctioned to place an order through TSMC for the Ascend 910B chips which are 7nm.
@@landontesar3070 SMIC is a chip foundry they don't make equipmemt to make chips. Go look up Chinese most advance semiconductor equipment maker, SMEE. Shanghai Mico Electronic Equipmemt. Then come back
4:40 or so ~ it's a question of wavelength. If you can produce a strong (intense, very bright) light with a wavelength of 28 nano-metres, you can use lithography to etch features with about that size. With some clever tricks, you can use that frequency / wavelength / colour light to etch smaller features, but it gets increasingly tricky to do successfully. You can cheat around the edges a bit, if you're good, but you're trying to do a painting on a fingernail, with a twelve inch house-paint roller, wearing welding-gloves. As you say, 7nm is around about the boundary between deep ultra violet and extreme ultra violet. What's the difference? Well EUV costs about 10x as much to make, or to make the manufacturing machinery for. Deep UV is doable, but Extreme UV takes some real expertise. There is about an order of magnitude difference in the cost of the machinery and the degree of technical difficulty here. Now 7nm is not to be sneezed at. AMD Ryzen 5ooo series was made on 7nm. It's slightly behind the leading edge of the game now, but it's a long way from "Second Rate". You could still make very competitive and capable electronics on 7nm. Thing is, that doesn't put you in the position of industry leadership, that puts you in mid-pack, and that's what they don't want. They want to be out there in front (same as the rest of us) which is why they went to TSMC, same as the rest of us. Because TSMC are world leaders in this stuff at the moment, with daylight second. Intel are talking a big game about getting into third, but they're talking way ahead of what they're producing. Intel's most recent stuff, is being made by their competitors TSMC. Yes, that means swallowing a huge bite of humble pie. Intel face about a 50 : 50 chance of going bust at this point. Humble pie is not the worst of their problems. Survival is. I said about 8 years ago, when word of Spectre and Meltdown leaked, that intel was finished. I said they're big and rich and have momentum, they have mass, it won't happen in a year, it won't happen in five, it may not happen in ten, but unless serious things change at Intel, that company is dead. I stand by that prediction. It's looking a whole lot safer today than it was the day I made it. Intel, like many high value American companies, has contracted corporate cancer. It has many times the number of managers and executives and bosses and consultants, that a sensible company needs, and fewer engineers than an engineering company needs. I said it before, but to repeat, if the central effort of your business is to be a management consultancy, the you have a reason to have lots of management consultants on your payroll, but if you are a ship-builder, you need marine architects and metal workers in your shipyard. You don't need more middle-managers than you have metal-workers. That’s corporate cancer. Middle-managers are bad enough, but when the condition gets to the top end, people like CEOs and CFOs and similar company officers, then you’ve got a massive problem. Then how many people are on the Board of Directors? And how much are they getting paid? What are their qualifications to be on the board of Intel? Are they experts in silly-cone fabrication? Or are they experts in boardroom piracy?
@@Kneedragon1962 worked in Intel for nearly 2 decades until 2009. Things started to go pot when they appointed an accountant as CEO. One of the 1st things he did was do away with the requirement to have a primary STEM degree to be a manager (of any grade). The rot set in quickly - when I was let go I was in gbe process of explaining to my new (non STEM) manager why Statistical Process Controls were required to make IC's, and the more stringent these controls the better if you are operating at(for the time) was bleeding edge. As the OP said, Intel is doomed, it will just take a while longer to die due to its size and simple market inertia (like the OEM lockins Intel has, especially in the server market). As far as I'm concerned - they made their bed (like Boeing), so they can suffer the consequences.
@@Sbiper ~ Thanks. You are the first person who was in there, to confirm that to me directly. It was until now, my interpretation. Nice to have it confirmed.
Intel moved their main fabrication plant to Israel...and of course you can always trust the Izzies and Unit 8200 Talpiot grads to always steal and backdoor your tech. In short, they effed it up. Talk about bad bad security. How could US national security let this happen? Let's ask AIPAC and see who dined with Epstein.
@@SumTingWong888 He's speaking beyond his expertise. Right, but he's equating smaller node to higher quality. Quality is the yield. I.e. how many final parts can run at their highest design speed and lowest voltage reliably vs how many need to be under-clocked. It can also speak to defects per die like when you have 10 cores on the die but 4 are defective so you mark it as 6-core. Quality is measured the same way regardless of process node.
You do not use light to etch wafers - the light is used to create a pattern in liquid photoresist that the wafers are coated in. This is then used as a barrier for etching/ doping. Also your comments re: the control of tech is incorrect - all these systems are digitally controlled and can be linked together for controll purposes. That said - in the early 2000's Intel restricted the process to create gate structure (what determined the speed of chips) to a handful of their fleet of DUV lithography tools - the ones that were the 'best' at printing these layers.Intel even shipped wafers between fabs to the best DUV tools to get the best yields snd performance by just printing the gate layers on this handful of machines.
So the light is used.... to etch the wafers. Your comment is like saying we dont use a stencil to draw, or i dont use my foot to drive. "Um, actually, the wheels are what is moving the vehicle, so your feet are just used to push the pedal that determines how much gas you use."🤓
Pete tries to explain chip production using the word "doping", but I would think that few modest observers of technology know that that involves removing or adding a valence electron to make the silicon have extra electrons or extra holes, with an opposing edge of opposites being what causes the diode effect, which is the foundation of transistors, and further on computer tech.
It's not a tighter focus. It's the wavelength of the light being used. Feature sizes are limited to, rule of thumb 1/2 the wavelength of light used is smallest feature.
Great Video I really enjoyed the content delivered. It is very enlightening how we are trying to improve our technology and prevent others from copying it. I sincerely hope the new administration does not drop the ball on this one.
Sadly, China has depleted nearly all of its copium mines. I think they're starting to lose faith in their Manifest Destiny (a term they invented don't argue).
I live in Sherman Texas and at this moment there are two chip plants under construction one of which is a stone's throw from my house. What is the significance of these plants and what kind of chip will they produce?
I understand TSMC and Intel are building fabrication plants in the US. However a google search says that Texas Instruments is the company building near you.
@@moneyman1472 TI is building a plant but so it GlobiTech, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based GlobalWafers Co.. They are building a $5 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Sherman. It's at the corner of Northgate Dr and Heritage Pkwy in Sherman. It's pretty impressive.
They are just now stopping selling weapons to someone who wants to attack them ? So until now they were handing weapons to their attacker. How crazy is that?
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments. Everyone should have BTC in their portfolio..,,
It's really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It's a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Jihan! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Jihan Wu Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him here in Canada 🇨🇦 as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why l'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Jihan Wu.
Looks like a NZ hoodie. Can see flag and the fern. Not sure if it’s just a generic country one or based on a Rugby team. Must have picked it up when he visited NZ earlier in the year.
DUV Lithography Lasers were introduced in 1996 and evolved up until EUV. The Chinese have had DUV Lithography equipment for years already. The best DUV is still pretty good. 7nm has been produced for some time. The Lasers were made by Cymer Laser (San Diego) and was taken private by ASML in 2000
ASML is a Dutch company that makes the EUV & DUV lithography machines that make semiconductor chips. TSMC is a Taiwanese foundry company that uses ASML machines to make semiconductor chips. So what is he's wrong about?
It's a lot easier to smuggle small chips than tankers of crude. If the Japanese could've gotten around oil embargoes as easily as the Chinese can get around "chip embargoes," perhaps there's no Pearl Harbor.
“The Chinese have been getting these chips.” “Biden has been better here. Trump doesn’t enforce things.” You know who the president is, right? Like, this is in Biden’s lap?
Peter Zeihan, The Blind Seer. However, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then. It's what you don't know, that you don't know that usually ends up biting Peter's predictions in the butt.
That description about making chips, thought grossly over simplified. Is the reason I as a lowley maintenance person, make more money than most of our engineers. They know how to design the chip, but I know how to make it.
TSMC had best move all most advanced Chip manufacturing to U.S. rather than dragging their feet as they have been. Not only has Trump been not good at follow-up, he has not talent at for follow-up.
what possibl advantage could that give them? the chips being in the island is the only reason anyone is wiling to stand up to ch1 for them, the moment that change they are on their own.
They already have foundries in Japan, the USA, and (I believe) Europe. I'm not sure if those 'offshore' foundries can produce the cutting-edge semiconductors PZ is talking about in this video.
@@crosslink1493 That's my point. They need to offshore the most cutting edge. Peter did a cast earlier this year talking about TSMC dragging their feet on the Arizona plant which is sub-10nm but not meant to go to 2-3nm like they will have to go to counter China taking over Taiwan.
The biggest bummer about having the updates a week later is i dont know what the weather will be (i live 2 states away and we get Denver's weather a day or two later)
Don't underestimate your opponent, not saying that China are able to pull it off but still we shouldn't make assumptions that they never can. The world order depends on this, if they can make it themself then we have problems much larger than all the wars combined. Wise men like to stay on the hill and observe the battlefield.
The chip engraving unit is being assembled in US and EU and the ones in Taiwan are wired for destruction to deny aggressor take over. Work has been on fast track progress in the last three years.😅
Soooo how did the Dutch get this technology? Is that method beyond Chinese abilities? If so...why? If not, then eventually the Chinese will do what the Dutch did. By not supplying the fish, you force them to learn to fish.
Same question could be applied to anything else. Why did the Dutch do this, and the United States didn’t? Why are the best watches made in Switzerland? Why are the best Anime’s made in Japan? Best cars (I guess subjectively) come from Germany? Some countries just have break throughs, and are better at certain things. We could try all we want, and I don’t think any Anime made in the US will be better than the ones from Japan.
@@WatchGeek8167 German cars now are garbage. The fuel mileage mandates have ruined cars reliability and life expectancy. Toyota and Honda have tweaked their poor designs to try to overcome the mistakes. I know personally of an Audi Q3 that the engine was completely worn out at 80,000 miles and have heard most all other brands are similar. The federal government caused this problem.
Mr. Peter. Thank you so much for your content. question, are you holding the camera up with your shoulders arms? Please make sure you have rotated your shoulders back for correct posture and work on rotator cuff muscles please
Peter your never Trumper bias is showing in every single video, and you're wrong about almost every prediction you make. Plus we haven't forgotten about how you treated our boy Snowden
They do, but basic modern chips, but nothing used in hi-end/cutting edge smartphones, computers, A.I. systems, etc. And DoD chips are on a whole different level than what Peter is talking about here; not necessarily the tech inside the chips, but the chips' applications.
@@crosslink1493 Advanced Chip Production: China has managed to produce chips at the 7nm and 5nm nodes. This development was highlighted with Huawei's Mate 60 Pro, which included a 7nm chip from SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), China's leading chipmaker. Despite these advancements, SMIC's production costs for these nodes are significantly higher than those of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), the global leader in chip manufacturing.
"IBM says it's built the world's first 2nm semiconductor chips" news from: may 6, 2021... "TSMC trumps IBM’s “2nm” chip tech hyperbole with “1nm” claim" news from: May 18, 2021 so maybe use internet for education from time to time?
@Bialy_1 Making a therorical chip is one thing... making a usable, mass market chip for a product is different. Tell me what 2nm chip is being sold today, and used in a product?
@@fialee8ca132It ain't theoretical and experimental. Mass production of 2nm chips begin in 25Q2, which means the tech is already mature and yield is good above 60%. In the second half of 2025 we'll see 2nm mass market products from Nvidia and Apple.
@@xhy12 Appearantly, you do not understand the concept of time... since Q2'25 is in the future, so no mass commercial 2nm chips have been made yet. And often, new process node ramp up are delayed due to yield issues. I give it less than 50% its hvm out of the gate. Plus, I doubt they can get 1nm or below until high NA EUV... which is at least another year out if not longer.
@@fialee8ca132 my response is to your original comment, on Peter saying 4nm, 3nm or even less. And he's not wrong to say that because 2nm is clearly imminent with good enough yields. TSMC has already demonstrated the tech to its largest customers and broken down the margins, cost makeup and risks etc. That's what sets it apart from Samsung. TSMC has never shipped products where mass production yields did not easily exceed 60%, unlike Samsung that struggles to get it past 30% on the latest nodes.
Peter has also praised Trump about his work on certain policies like the renegotiation of NAFTA I believe. Peter is not always right, but he seems to be reasonably non-partisan in his opinions.
"You have to grow a crystal the size of a Volkswagen."
See, he IS an American!! We'll use anything to measure - except the metric system.
Fur tree for scale.
Hilarious
Now that's funny.😅
LMAO!
I guess Ford Fiesta doesn’t have quite the same ring to it 😂
“Fur tree”, huh? First, learn how to spell bub, it isn’t FUR it’s FIR tree. Second, I’ve never heard anyone compare the size of anything to a fir tree.
Just a FYI Peter, EUV wasnt developed by ASML. It was originally invented by the US Department of Energy as a moonshot project in the 90s that ultimately was successful. The US Government owns the patents and licensed the technology to a small number of US companies, which ASML purchased one to gain access to the EUV patent. But the US put major stipulations on them, including yearly audit reports. That is the reason why the US government can strongarm ASML regarding sales of their EUV machine because it is all US Government technology.
i think thats the same with mobile nuclear plant tech (on war ships etc) but they haven't really let any company get their hands on the I.P. because reasons...
Yearly audit reports? Who does the audits? What kind of audits are they (u are talking about an industry with REAL standards for the work that's done) or are they compliance reviews done by the US government?
Really? I didn’t know that. Time for research. Thanks
ownership of patents and commercialized product are two different things - you are picking on different technicalities.
Several things in your comment do not add up: (i) patents from the 90s are for sure not in force today, as the maximum duration of a patent is 20 years (Paris convention of 1883); (ii) UV lithography dates from the 90s, but the tech to be able to use shorter and shorter wavelengths was developed over the years (see e.g. Moorse's law), among others by ASML, and today's E-UV (which does not date from the 90's but is a recent development), other than the accumulated know how, has very little to do with the UV litho of 30 years ago (e.g. using a mere UV lamp); and (iii) (and here I'm rather guessing) the reason why ASML (as TSMC, NVidia) receive to a certain extend "orders" from the US government (as well as other governments), is because they control critical technologies (military, industrial); any companies controlling such critical tech, operate under certain constraints imposed by governments...
The real value to Peter's videos is the comment section.
Watch out for Singaporean companies. To avoid Western bans on the transfer of technology, the PRC companies often operate through HK or Singaporean middlemen.
I've an accountant friend in Singapore. Singapore has long been a terrific place for Chinese Manufacturers to set up a shell Retail Company to both avoid Chinese Taxation, and keep from exchanging the Foreign Currency they sell goods for into Yuan in the first place. If they sell in USD, and pay their suppliers in USD, it keeps the CCP from knowing the true extent of their entire business.
@@tsubadaikhan6332 Yikes, Singapore is Nvidia's 2nd best customer in terms of GPU sales o.O
a lot for Communist Chinese are now Singaporeans, as where that goes any one's guess is as good as mine.
Good, now GTFO of asia!
@@Chisobhanekonot smart. Asia has 1/2 the worlds population and many of the fastest growing economies
Some clarification is in order here...2-3 nanometers is NOT the atomic level. Atomic level is 0.1-0.2 nanometer (1-2 Angstroms). For those into wafer fab, just remember that the real operational limit for lithography is NOT defined by the precision and accuracy of the lithography equipment. It is defined by when normal state electron tunneling starts to be a problem. For an insulating system like inorganic oxides (silicon, chromium, ...), with dielectric constants in the range of 5 or so, that limit is around 20 Angstroms (2 nanometers).
Thanks for that info. Very interesting.
I actually had to think to understand that. Fascinating. Thanks.
oof
I am betting on China.They put out a lot more engineers.Go look at the statistics
@@kevintewey1157.... LOL.... makes no difference how many engineers they put out, everything they produce is second hand and far from cutting edge.... China wouldn't have anything unless it was either stolen or given to them from the West😂
I work at ASML, our customers only use the EUV (EXE 5500) machines for the transistors, after those 4 -10 layers are done the wafers go into our DUV (NXT 2150, NXT 2100, NXT1980Fi, NXT1470, NXT 870) Machines for the signal and power busses to be layered up and then some go on to our older XT machines for the external connections to be built up. So for every EUV machine we sell, that needs 6 DUV machines for the rest of the production line for those chips.
BTW ASML's DUV machines are way better than Nikon or Cannon, because we have immersion lithography where we have a bubble of ultra pure water between the wafer and the chip (Only on some NXT machines) and we have customers working those NXT machines in the 7 nM node.
Bet against me .. china is gonna catch up in a few years and pass you by
nobody here knows what the fk you just said but sounds cool dude 😂
@@HoltAircraft And china will pass the u s a by
@@kubes8388 once you know the basics of how chips are made, you find that even though it is precise and everything is small its pretty simple really.
It’s about time they stop feeding the alligator
About time? It's very late. Greedy western capitalists 🤪
Hey buddy, how much of your stuff was made in China, ever thought about that? Ya, “greedy capitalist”.
it's no longer uncle sAam.s world. get used to the new normal, yankee.
@@mateobaysa2055 Wu Mao.
@@jackthorton10 They could have been manufactured in the Middle States or Eastern Europe, countries that respect intellectual property and allow for the protection of capital through the courts. Apparently, $400-$500 a month for an employee was too much for your corporations. Your children will pay for this greed.
What I never understood. The moment Xi said he is coming for Taiwan. Why did they even deliver any chips to china.
Probably because they thought he was just barking, now that he is sharpening his teeth, they are sharpening their own
Tsmc makes zero politics. That's their politics and that's where their success comes from
@@dturgis I thought because they make the best product. No one else can do what they do. But hey the more you know.
$$$$$
Xi? This has been on the table since Mao in 1949.
I worked in the computer chip industry in the early 1990-2000s and I remember the days of calibrating chip making instruments. Each one ran slightly different. I always argued we needed an automated procedure to do this. When I went to the biomedical industry in the 2010 I felt like I was entering the Stone Age. They were way farther behind in making their instruments run consistently between each instrument. Their calibration and alignment procedures are at least 20 years behind the chip making companies
Hmmm. I worked for Applied Materials in STI around the same time and don't remember having device calibration issues. Maybe they had this problem for other processes.
@ I did say it was an issue. They all ran in spec. The problem is it was a very manual process. No two systems were exactly the same. I remember Intel we had to meet slightly tighter specifications to meet their Copy Exact spec,
EUV and DUV refer to photographic techniques not etching. The light is used to expose a photoresist film that has been deposited on the wafer. After exposure the resist is developed leaving a pattern on the wafer. The pattern is then etched into the layer under the resist. The tool used to etch is most likely some form of plasma etch, In the past and for some extremely difficult layers that do not form volatile compounds when plasma etched a wet chemical etch can be used. The layers being etched can vary in composition from pure silicon, doped silicon, nitrides oxides, and metals. The pattern printed into the resist is made when the light passes through a mask. Light, as you might know, diffracts as it goes through a slit. The mask is actually many slits that allow light to pass through. To avoid the interference patterns created by the slits the pattern for the mask is passed through a very sophisticated computer adjustment process that accounts for the diffraction. So printing the pattern on the wafer takes more than just the printer itself. There are many technical steps to making the mask used to pattern the wafer before it is used in the printer. As important to the manufacturing process as the printer is it is not the only limiting step in the process. Knowledge on how to anneal the wafer, drive the dopants, stress the silicon, how to form defect traps and how to deposit materials is equally as challenging. Lastly, cleanliness is critical. Knowledge on how to keep the wafer clean at all times is not common or easy to come by. Simple things like the temperature of a shipping container can cause contamination that prevents the chip from being assembled. The type of perfume worn by the person in the clean room can cause issues. The type of clean room suit material or washing technique of the suit can cause an issue. The type of filters used to scrub the air and many more seemingly unimportant factors can cause difficulties with cleanliness. The Chinese can and have in the past overcome all these issues by sending individuals into wafer fabrication facilities to gain this knowledge. I would expect over time they can do the same with the current technology. I.E. don't under estimate them.
Extremely well said. Peter, please tour a wafer fab.
It would be helpful if Peter Zeihan got in touch with someone with a undergraduate degree in physics at least. Focusing 13nm UV photons below their wavelength isn't possible, and moreover, all these machines will need to be fine tuned and assembled on site at the fab, it doesn't get easier with smaller UV wavelengths, it gets more difficult.
Well copied from somewhere, but all you mention is the usual processing.
DUV and EUV are not strict technical terms. They just refer to shorter and shorter UV light wavelengths. The problem is that the resolution of the patterns on the silicon wafers, thus the amount of components per unit of area, is limited by the wavelength of the light used. The shorter the wavelenght the higher its energy, so to obtain the shortest possible wavelengths (necessary to achieve the highest resolutions), it becomes very complicated, and that's where most of the development lays, i.e. the UV light source (it's called "Extreme UV", because it's at the extreme of the UV spectrum, almost near to X rays (and the tech to produce it is also extreme...)). All the other steps you refer are "just adapted" to work with the new wavelength (extreme cleanliness, extreme photoresist formulations,...)
I worked at Walter Siltronic in the 90s. So many ways an ingot can go bad. But gravity is the biggest problem. Material science in space is the future. AI is a space race.
And, who has the largest rocket?
It's a silicon ingot and not a silicon oxide ingot right?
@@ddegnyes
I'm so glad we don't see the space junk during space walks....
Walter? I thought it was Wacker.
As someone that has worked in the semi industry for 20 yrs, it’s always fun to see Peter stumble his way just trying to understand the basics of semi fabrication. No you don’t make wafers at the fabs, and you certainly don’t grow silicon ingots out of “melted silicon oxide.” DUV is still used for 95% of the lithography processes, even at TSMC. EUV is only used for a few critical layers due to cost savings. Having EUV doesn’t give you magic power on advanced nodes, just look at how badly Intel is doing in spite of the fact they had the most advanced ASML high N.A. machine. The sanctions won’t even slow down the Chinese. All they did was cutting out billions of potential revenue from US/European/Japanese semi companies and creating future competitions that didn’t exist before.
Bought XAI93x after watching your video, super excited!
you support scamming
another pump n dump
@@nicoradv3923divorced because of pump n dump
Scam posts by bots people, please don't be fooled.
@@nicoradv3923 Pump n dump, like my last girlfriend.
What a time to be alive! 😃
Doesn't Taiwan consider Western reliance on its fab facilities a form of national defense? Or am I wrong?
They have a lot of latitude but overall, yes. Odd tension. Not war-worthy
Brilliant conclusion. Why I go to Zeihan and TH-cam for info sources.
He first said China is very good at relabeling products, selling through third-party nations, or finding other creative solutions to tariffs. He then went on to explain how the world's most advanced chip makers were going to block China from buying their best products... Is it too large a leap of logic for him to see that he himself already outlined how they will sidestep those restrictions?
Do you understand the difference between buyer and seller? What schools do you go to?
@@JnbsksbsgcvnHe goes to school “don’t make sense, but try to be smart.…ss.”
I mean that's how they get stuff OUT of China and around Tariffs... doesn't necessarily work the other way around getting stuff IN. It can work but it depends on how dedicated TSMC is to screening and it looks like the answer is fairly dedicated.
Logical consistency has never been his strong suit.
He's used to making hyperbolic statements to get attention.
@@alburaq3290 The same thing he accuses Trump of doing.🤔Interesting
Again almost everything he said is wrong
Curious, why would electric vehicles need sub-7-nm chips when space isn't an issue?
Peter as called out before your understanding of semiconductors is limited. Many EVs can operate on chips made by Chinese company SMIC. Not all EVs need to have NVIDIA chipsets if they aren’t running self driving software. And Biden admin missed fact that equipment companies were getting around his “surgical” restrictions. Samsung right now is making 3nm chips on applied materials process tools. SMIC is making 7nm chips on applied process tools. And issue is less about not using EUV and more on lack of industry support for tools in China.
Can assure you that millions of Chinese EVs sold don’t have TSMC chipsets.
Samsung and Intel are abandoning the process of multi-layer patterning on the DUV, the same process that SMIC is using to make their 7nm and lower chips due to low yield. Plus the chips that are deemed good from this process take up too much power when running. Both Samsung and Intel are moving toward High NA EUV for chip production that is 3nm and lower.
The reason why TSMC got ahead of Samsung and Intel and was able to corner 90% of the high-end chip market was their decision in 2008 to adopt the EUV while Intel and Samsung stayed with the DUV. With the EUV, they were able to get better yield and better performance chips and sell at a cheaper price.
@@SumTingWong888 agreed but that is market driven difference. China can produce chips needed to run EVs and smart phones. Are they market leading? No but does it enable Chinese companies to still sell millions of phones and cars? Absolutely.
@@SumTingWong888 you do know even TSMC still uses DUV and other process tools . Not all chips they make are on EUV. People in the industry understand this.
What do you expect from this guy Peter! He doesn't even know the subject of geopolitics that well, the topics he talk most about (except propaganda), so forget about him having any knowledge on semiconductor chip! lol
I solely believe XAI93x will do 20x after its launch price, the hype is high and its community are not relenting.
*community note: Please Don't Feed The Bots*
@@CharveL88 I hope people have caught on to scams like this by now. Always the same. This type and the one talking about financial advisors with 90+ bot comments saying how much it helped them are the most common that I've seen.
@@CharveL88 But they're so cute
@ Sure. Up until grandma writes that $20,000 cheque to help an Asian Prince collect his birthright.
Must say, thank you for the about 1.5sec of paus in the end of the vid to give you time to pause and go back before youtube takes you on to another vid it thinks I need to see, but usually not me. And also prevent a couple of commercial.
You can turn off ‘Autoplay Next Video’ =====> You > Settings (gear icon) > Playback > Autoplay Next Video
Doesn’t stop the ad just the next video
Cut it while you still can. China is determined to have its own advance chip industry and it eventually will. Mark my words.
And in May various news outlets reported Huawei will produced their own 3nm chip sets with DUV.
I think PZ is grossly underestimating China's determination and R&D focus while Trump is living rent free in Peter's head.
Someone once famously said - chip are made by man, not God. So it's just a matter of time (5-10 years max.)
You don't follow Peter regularly do you?
@@leonana11 For some reason my previous comment was deleted so I'll try again. In May it was reported that Hua - wei is about to to produce 3 nm wafers using DUV.
😂
Peter is right ... Peter an be wrong... but Peter can sure Talk
Ans he Provokes Thought
So his video is always worth watching
right
And he doesn't capitalise letters for absolutely no reason, so he's literate too.
PZ is the Bill Nye of politics.
He provides insights into CIA propaganda for sure
@@davebrewer7170lol? On this topic he's is 100% correct
Stop feeding the dragon, full stop 🐉🐲
🤫 peasant
You don't seem to realize that Taiwan province is part of the dragon.
@@kotto2001 You don't seem to realize that we don't care what Taiwan is a part of. We're done enriching others and exporting jobs and we're ready now to bring them back home.
@@kotto2001 You don't seem to realize that we don't care what the island formerly known as Formosa is a part of. We're done enriching and exporting jobs to hostile countries and we're ready now to start bringing them home.
Sorry boss they'll bring the factories back but they're not bringing the jobs back. It will be automated. I actually don't know how much the chip stuff will actually be of use. So it actually has to do with how AI works the big fancy Blackwell chips brute force in making an algorithm of all the little weights is the expensive need a lot of power part. It's going to be really tough to regulate when they build on top of that and I read a lot of research prepub papers in the AI space it's almost 6 Chinese names and then a Stacy from Stanford. My point is the way we do AI is pretty dumb and inefficient. There's already a bunch of ways to improve that. This artificial constraint will probably backfire.
Time to build domestically for cpu/gpu manufacturing and job growth
@@vgynnviolin2692 markets to drive sc builds must be massive
A few years back (2017) 10nm was the cutting edge and was the absolute pinnacle this is (and likely always will be) more than sufficient for most weapons systems. The exception will be in really smart AI based solutions that can gobble up acres of 5nm or better silicon to get the job done.
These restrictions are less about stopping the current set of weapons in production and more about trying to make an edge for the West in the next gen AI driven smart munitions, technologies and systems.
In other news, SMIC 7nm EUV lithography machines are to start producing in early 2025
Don't spread such news here, it will hurt the ego of many China haters here including Peter. lol
Producing what?
SMIC's 7nm process technology uses complex multiple-patterning processes due to limitations in its EUV lithography. This restricts output and strains SMIC's capacity. Here's some related information about SMIC's 7nm process:
Yield
SMIC's 7nm process has a yield rate of less than 50%, which is well below the industry norm of 90%.
Comparison to TSMC
Industry sources say that SMIC's prices for 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC's, and the yield is less than one-third of TSMC's
@@kolviczd6885SMIC's 7nm process technology uses complex multiple-patterning processes due to limitations in its EUV lithography. This restricts output and strains SMIC's capacity. Here's some related information about SMIC's 7nm process:
Yield
SMIC's 7nm process has a yield rate of less than 50%, which is well below the industry norm of 90%.
Comparison to TSMC
Industry sources say that SMIC's prices for 7nm processes are 40% to 50% higher than TSMC's, and the yield is less than one-third of TSMC's
Worth mentioning TSMC are a contract manufacturer, IP is owned by the designers
Zeihan really needs to take an intro course on semiconductors and lithography tech. TSMC’s “secret” for achieving its market dominance has little to do with materials or any specific equipment. China can duplicate all of that through espionage or alternate sources. The accumulated acumen of thousands of dedicated employees, aka “know how”, is what makes the processes at TSMC work to achieve useful (and profitable) yields in these small feature sizes. China can’t duplicate or steal that know how, but they might develop it over the next 10-15 years.
LOL, I think you need to go take a course in semiconductors. What has China replicate?
@@SumTingWong888 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is a Chinese semiconductor company in Shanghai with several wafer fabs.
@@landontesar3070 Pretty soon SMIC will use up all the replacement parts and components for their DUV lithography machine from ASML and can't replace them. Then you will see if they can still produce any more semiconductor chips.
@@landontesar3070 LOL, go do some research then we can talk. If SMIC can do what TSMC does, then Huawei doesn't need to have a third buyer who wasn't sanctioned to place an order through TSMC for the Ascend 910B chips which are 7nm.
@@landontesar3070 SMIC is a chip foundry they don't make equipmemt to make chips. Go look up Chinese most advance semiconductor equipment maker, SMEE. Shanghai Mico Electronic Equipmemt. Then come back
Thanks, Peter. I learned a lot.
You didn't. Peter doesn't know much to start with
Really? what you learned?
4:40 or so ~ it's a question of wavelength.
If you can produce a strong (intense, very bright) light with a wavelength of 28 nano-metres, you can use lithography to etch features with about that size. With some clever tricks, you can use that frequency / wavelength / colour light to etch smaller features, but it gets increasingly tricky to do successfully. You can cheat around the edges a bit, if you're good, but you're trying to do a painting on a fingernail, with a twelve inch house-paint roller, wearing welding-gloves.
As you say, 7nm is around about the boundary between deep ultra violet and extreme ultra violet.
What's the difference?
Well EUV costs about 10x as much to make, or to make the manufacturing machinery for. Deep UV is doable, but Extreme UV takes some real expertise. There is about an order of magnitude difference in the cost of the machinery and the degree of technical difficulty here.
Now 7nm is not to be sneezed at. AMD Ryzen 5ooo series was made on 7nm. It's slightly behind the leading edge of the game now, but it's a long way from "Second Rate". You could still make very competitive and capable electronics on 7nm. Thing is, that doesn't put you in the position of industry leadership, that puts you in mid-pack, and that's what they don't want. They want to be out there in front (same as the rest of us) which is why they went to TSMC, same as the rest of us. Because TSMC are world leaders in this stuff at the moment, with daylight second. Intel are talking a big game about getting into third, but they're talking way ahead of what they're producing. Intel's most recent stuff, is being made by their competitors TSMC. Yes, that means swallowing a huge bite of humble pie.
Intel face about a 50 : 50 chance of going bust at this point. Humble pie is not the worst of their problems. Survival is.
I said about 8 years ago, when word of Spectre and Meltdown leaked, that intel was finished. I said they're big and rich and have momentum, they have mass, it won't happen in a year, it won't happen in five, it may not happen in ten, but unless serious things change at Intel, that company is dead. I stand by that prediction. It's looking a whole lot safer today than it was the day I made it.
Intel, like many high value American companies, has contracted corporate cancer. It has many times the number of managers and executives and bosses and consultants, that a sensible company needs, and fewer engineers than an engineering company needs. I said it before, but to repeat, if the central effort of your business is to be a management consultancy, the you have a reason to have lots of management consultants on your payroll, but if you are a ship-builder, you need marine architects and metal workers in your shipyard. You don't need more middle-managers than you have metal-workers. That’s corporate cancer. Middle-managers are bad enough, but when the condition gets to the top end, people like CEOs and CFOs and similar company officers, then you’ve got a massive problem. Then how many people are on the Board of Directors? And how much are they getting paid? What are their qualifications to be on the board of Intel? Are they experts in silly-cone fabrication? Or are they experts in boardroom piracy?
@@Kneedragon1962 worked in Intel for nearly 2 decades until 2009. Things started to go pot when they appointed an accountant as CEO. One of the 1st things he did was do away with the requirement to have a primary STEM degree to be a manager (of any grade). The rot set in quickly - when I was let go I was in gbe process of explaining to my new (non STEM) manager why Statistical Process Controls were required to make IC's, and the more stringent these controls the better if you are operating at(for the time) was bleeding edge. As the OP said, Intel is doomed, it will just take a while longer to die due to its size and simple market inertia (like the OEM lockins Intel has, especially in the server market). As far as I'm concerned - they made their bed (like Boeing), so they can suffer the consequences.
@@Sbiper ~ Thanks. You are the first person who was in there, to confirm that to me directly. It was until now, my interpretation. Nice to have it confirmed.
Intel moved their main fabrication plant to Israel...and of course you can always trust the Izzies and Unit 8200 Talpiot grads to always steal and backdoor your tech. In short, they effed it up. Talk about bad bad security. How could US national security let this happen? Let's ask AIPAC and see who dined with Epstein.
So much information. Thank you so much for all of your videos! I feel like I gain so much from each one. You are the best!
Process node is not a measure of quality, it is just the size of features. You can have poor quality yields at any size.
He's mainly talking about the difference between EUV and DUV. The yield and quality of chip production is secondary
@@SumTingWong888 He's speaking beyond his expertise. Right, but he's equating smaller node to higher quality. Quality is the yield. I.e. how many final parts can run at their highest design speed and lowest voltage reliably vs how many need to be under-clocked. It can also speak to defects per die like when you have 10 cores on the die but 4 are defective so you mark it as 6-core. Quality is measured the same way regardless of process node.
Always happy to see you Peter! Stay warm
No more comments on the elections Peter? Are you predicting that Newsom wins in 2028....
Love it when PZ shines in his full light, away from the shadow of TDS. Thank you for these fantastic insights.
TDS is real. You have to be deranged to support Trump
@ZeihanonGeopolitics-b2y ??
You do not use light to etch wafers - the light is used to create a pattern in liquid photoresist that the wafers are coated in. This is then used as a barrier for etching/ doping. Also your comments re: the control of tech is incorrect - all these systems are digitally controlled and can be linked together for controll purposes. That said - in the early 2000's Intel restricted the process to create gate structure (what determined the speed of chips) to a handful of their fleet of DUV lithography tools - the ones that were the 'best' at printing these layers.Intel even shipped wafers between fabs to the best DUV tools to get the best yields snd performance by just printing the gate layers on this handful of machines.
So the light is used.... to etch the wafers.
Your comment is like saying we dont use a stencil to draw, or i dont use my foot to drive. "Um, actually, the wheels are what is moving the vehicle, so your feet are just used to push the pedal that determines how much gas you use."🤓
Semantics
Nice to get more detail - pun intended.
And most of us don't know how it works. We just know only the Dutch have the latest. I'd still like to see all of this brought in house.
Thank you for writing my essay on lithography.
B+ here I come!
Pete tries to explain chip production using the word "doping", but I would think that few modest observers of technology know that that involves removing or adding a valence electron to make the silicon have extra electrons or extra holes, with an opposing edge of opposites being what causes the diode effect, which is the foundation of transistors, and further on computer tech.
It's not a tighter focus.
It's the wavelength of the light being used. Feature sizes are limited to, rule of thumb 1/2 the wavelength of light used is smallest feature.
Thanks Peter ❤❤
Great Video I really enjoyed the content delivered. It is very enlightening how we are trying to improve our technology and prevent others from copying it. I sincerely hope the new administration does not drop the ball on this one.
Trump's cabinet looks more like a TV show cast when technocratic leadership is required to manage stuff of this magnitude.
@@DrTTube I agree with you 100%
Thanks Peter
It’s about that time…
I’m curious also. Please keep us informed!
China's dreams of surpassing the US now rests on China's ability to smuggle in enough of those NVIDIA H200 GPUs. Funny.
Just as America kidnapped German scientists and hauled them off to USA after World war. Google: Operation Paper Clip
Sadly, China has depleted nearly all of its copium mines.
I think they're starting to lose faith in their Manifest Destiny (a term they invented don't argue).
Not funny, everybody has their price and China has its ways easy or painful.
NVIDIA ‘s CEO IS A ASIAN AMERICAN
@@zemingliu4388 He has dual citizenship, Taiwan and the United States.
I live in Sherman Texas and at this moment there are two chip plants under construction one of which is a stone's throw from my house. What is the significance of these plants and what kind of chip will they produce?
I understand TSMC and Intel are building fabrication plants in the US. However a google search says that Texas Instruments is the company building near you.
@@itsame1277 There is a TI plant but there is another one closer to me. It's pretty big.
@@JR-bj3uf the other one is also a TI fab, they’re gonna have multiple in Sherman
@@moneyman1472 TI is building a plant but so it GlobiTech, a subsidiary of Taiwan-based GlobalWafers Co.. They are building a $5 billion semiconductor manufacturing plant in Sherman. It's at the corner of Northgate Dr and Heritage Pkwy in Sherman. It's pretty impressive.
They are just now stopping selling weapons to someone who wants to attack them ? So until now they were handing weapons to their attacker. How crazy is that?
China had already mastered making high end chips…no problems.
😂😂😂
Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments.
Everyone should have BTC in their portfolio..,,
It's really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It's a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Jihan! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days
As a beginner in this, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Jihan Wu is also my trade analyst, he has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
Jihan Wu Services has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him here in Canada 🇨🇦 as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
His guidance allowed me to restructure my retirement plan, resulting in an estimated $700,000 more by the time I retire.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks;
I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why l'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Jihan Wu.
It looks like Peter is glancing at a bear coming his way and licking his chops.
TSMC!
What’s the hoodie brand? Interesting content as always.
Looks like a NZ hoodie. Can see flag and the fern. Not sure if it’s just a generic country one or based on a Rugby team. Must have picked it up when he visited NZ earlier in the year.
Here goes Peter cheerleading Biden.
Even a blind squirrel occasionally gets an acorn. So it goes for Biden.
Wasn't looking to have my own TSM Startup here in Missouri. Just wanted to know if your headline was true or not.
Last time I was this quick was last night 😢
Not such a bad thing when she wants it to be over already.
Peter ... what's the deal with the New Zealand top?
Should someone tell Peter about this company called Palentir?
Pretty sure Peter Thiel and Palentir are way ahead of Peter on this.
Alex Karp and Peter Thiel are brilliant.
DUV Lithography Lasers were introduced in 1996 and evolved up until EUV. The Chinese have had DUV Lithography equipment for years already. The best DUV is still pretty good. 7nm has been produced for some time. The Lasers were made by Cymer Laser (San Diego) and was taken private by ASML in 2000
People forget Samsung has these abilities also. TSMC isn't the only party in town, they just have more booze and women😊
Let's focus on the booze and women with no tariffs on those
Samsung has bigger issues than you think. Nvidia just dropped Samsung as a supplier, proving TSMC is the only party in town.
Making chips is easy, making chips while being profitable is a different story
Don't you think with all those millions of New EV cars....they can't buy every Semiconductor company on Earth?
Very insightful as always 👍
7 nm? does that include double-slitting?
He's wrong. Whawaia's "Top of the line" phone from 9 months ago that they said was their own chip was old ASML chips with a new label
ASML makes chips ???
ASML doesn't make chips...
What? Lol
ASML is a Dutch company that makes the EUV & DUV lithography machines that make semiconductor chips. TSMC is a Taiwanese foundry company that uses ASML machines to make semiconductor chips. So what is he's wrong about?
Huawei, not Whawaia. Also ASML doesn’t make chips
Maybe that’s why the cut that cable?
I can't help but wonder how the Chinese will react. When cut off from oil, the Japanese lashed out rather strongly.
How are they going to be cut off from Russian oil exactly.
It's a lot easier to smuggle small chips than tankers of crude. If the Japanese could've gotten around oil embargoes as easily as the Chinese can get around "chip embargoes," perhaps there's no Pearl Harbor.
So, TSMC just effectively responded to China's orders for advanced chips with "come and get them."
Pete, no hard sell on the Patreon?
Thanks.
This guy is one of those, “Anybody but Trumpers.”
2:48 building tech walls 😂😂😂
“The Chinese have been getting these chips.”
“Biden has been better here. Trump doesn’t enforce things.”
You know who the president is, right? Like, this is in Biden’s lap?
It's for a reason they call him Beijing-Biden! He has a history.
BTW: do you know Jeff R Nyquist?
Peter has TDS Syndrome and it affects his cognition. I hope he can beat the disease.
@@theasianjaywalker4455 Exactly. Trump lives rent free in Peter's head.
I want to see Trump repeal the Jones Act and watch PZ have an existential crisis.
He doesn’t like trump at all but is trying to appear objective
Silicon seed the size of a Volkswagen? What the?? Peter, most are ~8" in diameter and a couple of feet in length.
@@RasielSuarez thought the analogy of a si ingot to a VW quite odd
Peter Zeihan, The Blind Seer.
However, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then.
It's what you don't know, that you don't know that usually ends up biting Peter's predictions in the butt.
That description about making chips, thought grossly over simplified. Is the reason I as a lowley maintenance person, make more money than most of our engineers. They know how to design the chip, but I know how to make it.
Expect some interesting emails from China. 😊
I want to own a phone built by Huawei the same way I want to own a phone built by the KGB. I don't.
What ever happen to free trade??????
TSMC had best move all most advanced Chip manufacturing to U.S. rather than dragging their feet as they have been. Not only has Trump been not good at follow-up, he has not talent at for follow-up.
what possibl advantage could that give them? the chips being in the island is the only reason anyone is wiling to stand up to ch1 for them, the moment that change they are on their own.
They already have foundries in Japan, the USA, and (I believe) Europe. I'm not sure if those 'offshore' foundries can produce the cutting-edge semiconductors PZ is talking about in this video.
@@crosslink1493 That's my point. They need to offshore the most cutting edge. Peter did a cast earlier this year talking about TSMC dragging their feet on the Arizona plant which is sub-10nm but not meant to go to 2-3nm like they will have to go to counter China taking over Taiwan.
What reason does the Taiwan firm give for sanction given?
You were so right about bitcoin!
What exactly gives bitcoin its value?
@@Ruben-w2vthe reliance that another sucker will come along. Like every pyramid scheme.
@@Ruben-w2vSame thing that gives the greenback ... agreement to accept !!!
@@JEEDUHCHRI w
@@JEEDUHCHRIWhat part of bitcoin is a pyramid ???
When are you going to comment on the Dnipro ICBM strike?
It was an IRBM.
The Good News is Trump has a really good grasp of the technology involved here.
Mmmmppphhh....
Well he IS the father of VHDL !!!
😂
The biggest bummer about having the updates a week later is i dont know what the weather will be (i live 2 states away and we get Denver's weather a day or two later)
From the man who said Trump would never be re-elected..... TRUMP 2024!
Morons
Are
Giant
A..holes
Don't underestimate your opponent, not saying that China are able to pull it off but still we shouldn't make assumptions that they never can. The world order depends on this, if they can make it themself then we have problems much larger than all the wars combined. Wise men like to stay on the hill and observe the battlefield.
They will steal it, before they ever come close to making it. Russia is good at lying, China is good at stealing. The US is good at innovating.
Easy money for middlemen
The chip engraving unit is being assembled in US and EU and the ones in Taiwan are wired for destruction to deny aggressor take over. Work has been on fast track progress in the last three years.😅
PETER couldn't foresee Trumps victory.
Only God can; anyways, the result is there, so cool off dude.
Peter Zeihan for press he knows how the world works and things in this world work !
Soooo how did the Dutch get this technology? Is that method beyond Chinese abilities? If so...why? If not, then eventually the Chinese will do what the Dutch did. By not supplying the fish, you force them to learn to fish.
Same question could be applied to anything else. Why did the Dutch do this, and the United States didn’t? Why are the best watches made in Switzerland? Why are the best Anime’s made in Japan? Best cars (I guess subjectively) come from Germany?
Some countries just have break throughs, and are better at certain things.
We could try all we want, and I don’t think any Anime made in the US will be better than the ones from Japan.
They learn much faster if you supply them fish and soon there is no fish left for you.
@@WatchGeek8167 German cars now are garbage. The fuel mileage mandates have ruined cars reliability and life expectancy. Toyota and Honda have tweaked their poor designs to try to overcome the mistakes. I know personally of an Audi Q3 that the engine was completely worn out at 80,000 miles and have heard most all other brands are similar. The federal government caused this problem.
Obviously the Chinese don’t have access to the same alien technology that the Dutch have.
It's US tech but manufacturing in Netherland, just like Tesla in Shanghai
Mr. Peter. Thank you so much for your content. question, are you holding the camera up with your shoulders arms? Please make sure you have rotated your shoulders back for correct posture and work on rotator cuff muscles please
Oil embargo was Japans tipping point! What will be Chinas?
TSMC?
TEMU?
SHINE?😂
Hello my fellow Zeihanists
Peter your never Trumper bias is showing in every single video, and you're wrong about almost every prediction you make. Plus we haven't forgotten about how you treated our boy Snowden
china makes their own chips so does russia
yeah, garbage chips.
They do, but basic modern chips, but nothing used in hi-end/cutting edge smartphones, computers, A.I. systems, etc. And DoD chips are on a whole different level than what Peter is talking about here; not necessarily the tech inside the chips, but the chips' applications.
@@crosslink1493 Advanced Chip Production: China has managed to produce chips at the 7nm and 5nm nodes. This development was highlighted with Huawei's Mate 60 Pro, which included a 7nm chip from SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), China's leading chipmaker. Despite these advancements, SMIC's production costs for these nodes are significantly higher than those of TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), the global leader in chip manufacturing.
@@crosslink1493 Currently, the U.S. accounts for about 12% of global semiconductor production,
TSMC has a $3 billion Chinese mainland factory in Nanjing that has been producing less advanced chips since 2016. It produces the 12nm and higher.
Less than 3nm?!?! What product would that be??? None! Get a new semiconductor analyst... it's beyond embarrassing how wrong you are in this sector.
"IBM says it's built the world's first 2nm semiconductor chips" news from: may 6, 2021...
"TSMC trumps IBM’s “2nm” chip tech hyperbole with “1nm” claim" news from: May 18, 2021
so maybe use internet for education from time to time?
@Bialy_1 Making a therorical chip is one thing... making a usable, mass market chip for a product is different. Tell me what 2nm chip is being sold today, and used in a product?
@@fialee8ca132It ain't theoretical and experimental. Mass production of 2nm chips begin in 25Q2, which means the tech is already mature and yield is good above 60%. In the second half of 2025 we'll see 2nm mass market products from Nvidia and Apple.
@@xhy12 Appearantly, you do not understand the concept of time... since Q2'25 is in the future, so no mass commercial 2nm chips have been made yet. And often, new process node ramp up are delayed due to yield issues. I give it less than 50% its hvm out of the gate. Plus, I doubt they can get 1nm or below until high NA EUV... which is at least another year out if not longer.
@@fialee8ca132 my response is to your original comment, on Peter saying 4nm, 3nm or even less. And he's not wrong to say that because 2nm is clearly imminent with good enough yields. TSMC has already demonstrated the tech to its largest customers and broken down the margins, cost makeup and risks etc. That's what sets it apart from Samsung. TSMC has never shipped products where mass production yields did not easily exceed 60%, unlike Samsung that struggles to get it past 30% on the latest nodes.
This explains Trumps threat to tariff Szechuan flavored Doritos 200%.
Gosh we're going to get 4 years of Peter criticizing Trump. Great. Don't think I'll be listening much longer
Was he wrong ??? ??? ???
It's not partisan. He despised Obama.
I hope Trump and his team are listening. I hope Peter Thiel and Palantir are listening if not.
Peter has also praised Trump about his work on certain policies like the renegotiation of NAFTA I believe. Peter is not always right, but he seems to be reasonably non-partisan in his opinions.
You can't expect an idiot not to be criticized.
Sure. No sale.
This guy is full of Sh-t! He’s been wrong many times. He’s a bias narcissist. Beware!