It is crazy to see how fast things change. When Joseph beat Jonas, hypertapping was going to be the way to play Tetris. A few years later, hypertappers have been completely outclassed by rollers.
The thing is that Hypertapping advantage over DAS is much smaller than the advantage of Rolling over Hypertapping. Hypertapping is very tiring, even the best hypertappers couldnt last long post 29, simply because the hand muscles started to "give out". For this reason, despite being at a disadvantage, DAS players still had realistic chances against Hypertappers if they managed to keep higher tetris rate. Rolling however is not only faster than hypertapping, but also less tiring, the only player who could keep hypertapping competitive against rolling was Alex T and even he had to give in eventually.
@@juyifan7933 That was really something to watch wasn't it! I almost wish Alex and Dog didn't transfer to rolling but they had to of course, but watching them be able to hang with and beat most rollers even for a good while before they mastered it and hyper tapping to level 32-36 in competition was really something.
We got the Five Gods of Melee and the Big Six of Tetris. I also think this is a pretty good concept to support a narrative which is super important to esports scenes imo as it gives the spectators something to latch onto and storylines to follow.
although i love the comparison, i think we do need to wait for this one. The five gods of melee had similar precedence of dominance by its 5 gods for a much longer time in terms of supermajors. From 2007 to 2015 the 5 gods won practically every tournament where 2 of them seriously played in. 5 months is nothing compared to the era of the five gods but it is a cool shoutout
@@thatkidkim I do agree with the sentiment, but I also think it's worth pointing out the comparison just to see if it starts to pan out. It seems unreasonable to demand these 6 stay this dominant for as long as the 5 gods did, but I think that if it stays that those 6 are the only semi-/finalists for at least a year or two (in both CTM and the CTWC, which are the only two "major" events to speak of AFAIK) the comparison should be given some merit.
3:16 NO SHOT I MADE IT IM IN A GAMESCOUT VIDEO SHEESH such a cool video-i appreciate the stats and your transparency about the limitations you see in the way you did them. you’re such a scientist
Excellent video. Just a suggestion, finding out the median losing score could be very enlightening. You wouldn't need to worry about intentional or aggressive topouts. You might get more accurate results since all the scores would be ernest attempts. It's basically like ranking the players' badness instead of skill.
This is really fascinating. It reminds me heavily of the Five Gods Era of Super Smash Bros Melee, where for a period of time spanning for nearly a full a decade, the players Armada, Hungrybox, Mang0, PPMD, and Mew2King dominated the game. Over the entire span of time from 2007 to 2016, if a tournament had at least two of the gods in attendance, one of them would win the whole thing. There are only two players in the game's history, Leffen and Plup, that ever took a set off all five of them over their entire competitive lifetime. It's a really deep rabbit hole to go down with a lot of parallels- an old game with a thriving competitive scene with a set of unbeatable gatekeepers at the top of the scene.
the live in-person component has a huge impact, and the fact it's a yearly event, many crumble under that kinda pressure while only a few seem to thrive
Great video as always, Scout! My heart says Huff, biggest surprise win would be Cheez but logically I think Fractal. The comedic side of me wants to see Eric win simply because he's always so subdued in his emotions and reactions that it'll be like watching that spelling bee kid win where the confetti is falling, lights are flashing and the crowd is going wild but the winner has barely cracked a smile!
I'll be cheering on Alex T. That kids energy is just infectious. I think Fractal probably has it though - seems too consistent and seems to not feel pressure.
I'm actually shocked Fractal hasn't won every single CTM since the main event last year.....I'm glad he hasn't cause its more interesting I mean, just also genuinely surprised is all. Feel really bad for Sidnev though poor guy has made like 3 straight finals and lost all of them in heartbreaking fashion!. Just a matter of time though.....I think lol. Nah it is I know it!. All these dudes are amazing players. Also bit shocked Alex hasn't been winning to but just shows the closing gap is' all he's still amazing. And your right that kid is hilarious and a riot when he wins and loses lol.
So exciting. Also crazy to think that we may be in a position to have ANOTHER new youngest world champ. A couple more years and we'll have 1st graders dominating the scene at this pace. Great video as always.
I'm not very in tune with the world of competitive NES Tetris, but your videos are always so fun to watch. See this level of data analysis in the world of Tetris is really cool!
I think it's probable that we won't see any upsets this year. These Big 6 simply have a skill gap too massive to most other players. Their ability to chase down any score by lining out makes it so that they are playing a qualitatively different game to their opponents. The dominance that Jonas and Joseph had in previous years was enough to carry them past 99% of players and they were just very good, they didn't have a whole other gear that they could kick into to surpass any other player's score. We've seen great players like Rhubarb put up a game within 100k of their PB and Dog just aggressively Tetris in 29 and put 300k on top of this score... They're really in a league of their own in a way we haven't seen in previous years.
I love that Joseph smashed the old records and way of playing, and subsequently been deposed by an even newer play style. I don't know if "rolling" will be the last, best technique, because we thought that about hypertapping when it crushed DAS, but it certainly shows that new ideas come from new blood, and the timeline of "Boom! Tetris for Jeff" attracting Joseph, whose wins attracted the next wave, has been great to see. Thank you for documenting this because I'm sure that a lot of this has been down to you, and your work.
Since the game only counts 30 inputs during any 60frame cycle, rolling is the last technique barrier. Sure, someone might find a way to get 30 inputs some other way, but 30 is the limit. And that is hard enough given you have to flip pieces too.
A new technique that allows for more control over rotating, whilst also maintaining directional movements, could be invented which would, therefore, be better than rolling. I am open to the idea that there could still be advancements because people were sure that hypertapping was the last, best technique up until it wasn't.
Ahhhhhhhhhhh amazing video as always!! Slicing this data is always so much fun and provides so many thought-provoking insights. Thank you for all the hard work you do!! And see you FRIDAY!!!
Thanks for the video. Great content as always. I'm getting my wisdom teeth out on Friday, so looking forward to some loopy Tetris watching this weekend!
This video is so cool, Scout! The amount of work that went into it is apparent and I thoroughly enjoyed it. [Tristop's my pick to take home this W btw]
Things Big Six Must Improve on to be successful this week: Alex Thach: Must qualify better than last year. No need to force himself into the Round of Zero and an extra match the others won't require. Dog: Must ease aggression on kill screen. Without a line cap in play, survival is the bigger target. Fractal: Don't be his own worst enemy, has to avoid the early top-outs and giving free wins to opponents. EricICX: More consistency. While he has been a world-beater at times, it has been way too much hit or miss in CTWC competition. PixelAndy: Must back up CTM performances. Also can't be satisfied with playing second fiddle to his younger brother Dog. Huff: Must avoid the urge to go aggressive on kill screen. That's NOT his style of play, extending the game is his preferred method of attack, so stick with it.
In addition to being insensitive to outliers, the median is the better choice here because it is more closely related to how you actually win. In Tetris, your average score doesn't matter; what matters is how often your score is higher than your opponent's. If we want to know how good a player would be against a generic opponent, we can ask questions like "what score could he beat half the time?" (i.e. the median) or "what score could he beat 75% of the time (i.e. the third quarter), and those are more useful than "what is his average score?" After all, it makes almost no difference if a player occasionally gets 20 million points, since probably even 1.5 million would be enough to win.
It’s going to be a great tournament for sure! Likely one of these 6 yes, and while recent form is a good indicator in any sport, anything can happen! Looking forward to hopefully some March Madness type upsets!
I wouldn't rule out the 2 brother and Eric.. I think the winner will be decided on who can handle the live atmosphere and pressure the best, almost all the CTMs and the past 2 CTWC were played online where there is no crowd pressure and no peeking over ur shoulder to see ur opponents screen, this looking at ur opponents screen could be a decider if ur a peeler and get distracted and make mistakes. Plus analysing Dogg's, Andy's and Ericks games in the recent past they have been trying to go aggressive mostly past 29 and not concentrating on longevity like fractal and Huff. Plus we don't know which of them has been playing mind games, example when strong appear weak, or don't play gpod enuf so u dont enter the competition as top seed, there is a certain pressure when ur top seed and people expect you to win. Mind you there is no line limit and the past CTM people had line limit so tactics will change. And last of all twill depends on who will have nerves of steel and play the smartest, wisest game. Play intelligently. But by far the top stackers in my opinion with the 'tetris cerebral intelligence ' are Dog, Andy and Erick. The winner will be one of those 3 if they don't eliminate themselves early I predict 2 of them to meet each other if they Don't play each other in earlier rounds. Joseph ran away as soon as he saw there were better players than him and started loosing games.
i was just thinking about this sort of conversation, ever since rolling became essentially the only option for competetive play i wondered who you could consider the best players. this was quite literally the perfect video for my question
Wow this is pure gold for a Tetris stats nerd! One suggestion - you might want to have a date / strategy cut off as data points. DAS and hypertapping (in post 29) are losing relevance so removing those data points might paint a better picture.
Poetic that Eric beat Fractal in the championship. He was not ranked at the top in any of these metrics, and at the "survival stat" 9:37, he was dead last despite outliving Fractal in the final. Also fitting that he was considered to have the highest potential 13:43.
Really, the issue is that Eric is the most inconsistent of the group. He either plays amazingly or like shit. His shit play is usually enough to beat most people, but not this year.
There're important unpredictable factors, like anxiety, because none of them have played live in high stakes games. Also do they have the same pieces in CTM?
Whenever one of your videos pops up it makes me smile. Apart from linking us 'normies' to he classic tetris scene I just find it so charming how you've become the inofficial analyst/chronologist/whatever of this sport through seemling both accident and pure passion. Stay awesome, my dude. Jonas would be proud.
One huge overlook that no stats will capture is psychology. The vast, vast majority of these games took place in the comfort and quiet of their own homes. I expect playing on a stage in front of a noisy crowd of several hundred will rattle some players, especially the younger ones.
@@arhithdharanendra5053 yeah I guess he fixed his mentality and pulled through. Congrats to him. I was rooting for AlexT and exact opposite of what I had hoped for when it was Alex who didn’t make top 8.
There are a few Dark horse picks that are worth considering. 1. Tristop, better than his competetion results suggest because he had a bad month once. 2. TommyNTG while he's actualy rated higher than ericICX IDK if he's going to the CTWC, 3. Cheez: actually rated #6 in the world, though he hasn't entered events in a while he does have some good perfomances though. I give those 3 at least a 10% chance of winning the whole thing if all are going
this is a great question, original upload title: who *is* the tetris player in the world? jokes aside though, i'm excited to see this video once i comb through the rest of my watch later
Had Cheez practiced im secret and just came out with rolling during CTWC he would have definitely been the winner of this year's CTWC! He didn't capitalize on his technique properly. He should have practiced in secret and just blaze it out and bring out the big guns during CTWC! The crowd would have gone wild seeing post 29 play on that level and it would have made for a hell of a competition for CTWC. Now we have seen all the excitement and exciting games and know the capabilities of the players that the element of surprise isn't there. Imagine how lit it would have been if rolling was unveiled during the CTWC competition!! All sports networks would have picked it up and TikTok going viral it would have been good exposure for Tetris and CTWC it would habe been one for the history books a fairy tale of a competition! Just a thought....
Poor cheez. Revolutionises the game by establishing rolling, breaks world records, only for them to be totally crushed shortly after, and is not even part if the big 6 going into the championship, as others adapted his technique even better than himself
Hopefully he retains his relevance in Tetris history ... although many newcomers may not know why they use certain techniques across the game, the information on progenitors should rightly live on.
He dropped off on purpose, he made a decision not to share his high scores anymore so for all we know he could be holding onto a 10 million or smth. He's more of a wild card than anything rn imo
hi scout, thanks for another well delivered video. for some of these charts, especially where the spread is apparently so close, it would be super helpful if you shared the results of some basic statistical analysis. maybe a collaborator could help share whether testing demonstrates differences between players and if the differences are statistically significant. thanks again for the great content!
The psychological effect of playing in a live competition should also be taken into account. Alex T being younger and having less experience in live competitions than Fractal.
Great work as always Scout! I wouldn't rule Dog out. After winning back to back, the "normal" tournaments, even with large prize pools, are not the same. He will wake up when that big J is up for grabs. Time to brush off that old Twitch account for the weekend.
I loved how this was put together. Performance based with good thinking behind it. The only thing it misses is an "intangible." Something that won't be picked up by the performance metrics. In comparison,9 ball billiards. Pros try to pocket shots intentionally. However, the rules of the game allow a person to keep shooting even if a ball is pocketed unintentionally. A lucky shot, if you will. It would have been more enjoyable if you threw in a similar category for comparison. I don't know what you would use, but it would have been nice to add.
I used to watch classic tetris back in the days of Jonas, Jeff, Koryan and Quaid, even got myself a certain tetris meme T-shirt. The new wave of players are much better at the game but don't seem to have the same kind of charisma and backstory, it's not nearly as fun of a spectacle anymore.
Of course, maybe Joseph hasn't been able to keep up with the new blood, but it goes without saying he was the bridge that connected the old generation with the up and comping new generation tetris players. Without his dominance, Tetris would not have a scene as it has today. And lets not forget about Jonas, who probably wouldn't have won 7 in todays competition, but was a vital part of the early days. Similar to smash melee where the older players helped maintain the game's community in its early day. Rest in Peace Jonas
After watching qualifying and top 32 o think Fractal, Eric or Dog have the best chance of winning. Alex T has no shot, Andy and Huff could win but i don't see it happening
Single elimination makes a lot of sense since the standard way of setting up a double elimination bracket scales terribly beyond 16 players, leading to a much longer schedule and matches between players who only have a tiny chance of winning left. I've thought about that for a while and come up with a faster and less punishing double elimination bracket that works for 16 players and up, called "accelerated double elimination": In classic double elimination, the ratio between the sizes of the lower and upper bracket develops 0->1->2->1->2->...->1. Every step from 2 to 1 requires the upper bracket to not play, which is slow. Also, if the upper bracket finalist wins the lower bracket, they will have the same number of wins as the upper bracket champion, which leads to organizers often requiring the lower bracket winner to win 2 matches in a row in the grand final. My alternative idea has the lower bracket's size developing either 0->1->2->3->4->...->2->1 (for 16 or 64 players) or 0->1->2->1->2->3->4->...->2->1 (for 32 or 128 players). This 1. reduces the number of breaks taken by the upper bracket, leading to a faster schedule, 2. reduces the number of matches required to make it from the first few lower bracket matches into the grand finals, and 3. guarantees that the lower bracket winner has at least 1 more win than the upper bracket winner, justifying weaker than 2-in-a-row odds. One suggestion I have for this is that the lower bracket winner has to win the finals as a Bo5 AND as a Bo7, while the upper bracket winner has to win them as a Bo5 OR as a Bo7. Oversimplifying with the assumption that all players are evenly matched (with my odds idea for the finals), the chances of winning the tournament based on the upper bracket placement would change as follows: Upper bracket winner: 75% -> 58% Upper bracket finalist: 12.5% -> 10.5% Everyone else combined: 12.5% -> 31.5% I think that this could give more of a point to double elimination. Right now, if you want double elimination, you'd have to double the length of the tournament and there would be a 7/8 chance for the winner to be from the upper bracket finals anyway. This idea changes that.
The good thing is, that always someone can appear out of nowhere like tetristime or sam finch. But yeah if I had to bet Id chose one of these too because of consitency. But maybe someone like cheeze has a good run and throws out one 3million game after another and wins it all. :D
Y'all better not be sleeping on tristop. His improvement is absurd and it hasn't had the time to be reflected in comp results. He's a scary scary man.
agreed, him and sidnev especially have been on the rise recently. can't wait to see what they're able to do this weekend
@@aGameScout yeah sidnev is crazy I have been watching him on his TH-cam channel for a while.
Uh
@@ryanamburgy2791 yea
You were right!
It is crazy to see how fast things change. When Joseph beat Jonas, hypertapping was going to be the way to play Tetris. A few years later, hypertappers have been completely outclassed by rollers.
The thing is that Hypertapping advantage over DAS is much smaller than the advantage of Rolling over Hypertapping.
Hypertapping is very tiring, even the best hypertappers couldnt last long post 29, simply because the hand muscles started to "give out". For this reason, despite being at a disadvantage, DAS players still had realistic chances against Hypertappers if they managed to keep higher tetris rate.
Rolling however is not only faster than hypertapping, but also less tiring, the only player who could keep hypertapping competitive against rolling was Alex T and even he had to give in eventually.
@@juyifan7933 That was really something to watch wasn't it! I almost wish Alex and Dog didn't transfer to rolling but they had to of course, but watching them be able to hang with and beat most rollers even for a good while before they mastered it and hyper tapping to level 32-36 in competition was really something.
We got the Five Gods of Melee and the Big Six of Tetris. I also think this is a pretty good concept to support a narrative which is super important to esports scenes imo as it gives the spectators something to latch onto and storylines to follow.
I was going to point this out too. We finally have the 6 gods of Tetris.
@@drsunju Was also going to comment this as soon as he pointed out the CTM bit. Glad we all thought alike here.
although i love the comparison, i think we do need to wait for this one. The five gods of melee had similar precedence of dominance by its 5 gods for a much longer time in terms of supermajors. From 2007 to 2015 the 5 gods won practically every tournament where 2 of them seriously played in. 5 months is nothing compared to the era of the five gods but it is a cool shoutout
@@thatkidkim I do agree with the sentiment, but I also think it's worth pointing out the comparison just to see if it starts to pan out.
It seems unreasonable to demand these 6 stay this dominant for as long as the 5 gods did, but I think that if it stays that those 6 are the only semi-/finalists for at least a year or two (in both CTM and the CTWC, which are the only two "major" events to speak of AFAIK) the comparison should be given some merit.
Rather we had* the 5 gods of melee. Different era now
3:16 NO SHOT I MADE IT IM IN A GAMESCOUT VIDEO SHEESH
such a cool video-i appreciate the stats and your transparency about the limitations you see in the way you did them. you’re such a scientist
so deserved
No shot hi Xeno Philips
@@Sidnev hi sidney!!!
Excellent video. Just a suggestion, finding out the median losing score could be very enlightening. You wouldn't need to worry about intentional or aggressive topouts. You might get more accurate results since all the scores would be ernest attempts. It's basically like ranking the players' badness instead of skill.
Interesting point.
Great idea
This is a great suggestion, we need to know who is prone to the most early top outs. Rank 1 would be higher mean losing score or least early top outs.
It's crazy to think that Joseph used to be the top player of all time, and now we have The Big 6. Anyways, great video scout!
Jonas solos no diff
What happened to Joseph? Did he retire?
@@luisma8916 yes, semi retirement because he started college
@@luisma8916
For a moment I read "Jonas" and not "Joseph".
@@PresidentScrooge RIP
This is really fascinating. It reminds me heavily of the Five Gods Era of Super Smash Bros Melee, where for a period of time spanning for nearly a full a decade, the players Armada, Hungrybox, Mang0, PPMD, and Mew2King dominated the game. Over the entire span of time from 2007 to 2016, if a tournament had at least two of the gods in attendance, one of them would win the whole thing. There are only two players in the game's history, Leffen and Plup, that ever took a set off all five of them over their entire competitive lifetime. It's a really deep rabbit hole to go down with a lot of parallels- an old game with a thriving competitive scene with a set of unbeatable gatekeepers at the top of the scene.
This is exactly what my brain went to. Like these six are the heads of Tetris. Just beating them is a major accomplishment alone.
love seeing more melee & nes tetris crossover 😍
exactly what i thought of
I thought of the Era of Five Gods too. I miss Armada, PPMD, and Mew2King so much dude 😔
where's the anime?
EricICX was like, "And I took that personally."
He had the worse statistics and still did what he did
And I am from the future. The year after Fractal win. And the year after that, Alex T win.
This is some fantastic content Game Scout. From a fellow stats nerd, thank you for your wonderful analysis.
Legitimately... kinda on a binge atm of the raw data side of YT when this pops up - - pleasantly satisfying while hitting on that CTWC hype 👌
I'm so happy I've found your channel, this is just pure entertainment ❤️
Such a good video, really appreciate all of the hard work you put into them!
See you in Portland!
Very informative video on one of the Tetris players in the world.
Six actually...
the live in-person component has a huge impact, and the fact it's a yearly event, many crumble under that kinda pressure while only a few seem to thrive
The systematic analysis of data to predict the winner is impressive. Good job!
wow. these guys are the tetris players of all time
really just the tetris players in the world
i've never seen tetris like this. some of the games ever
on the list of all the people who have ever played tetris, these guys take spots on it.
@@Xenophilius This is a comment about this video!
they are certainly tetris players.
Interesting stats! Would love to see a similar one going over their performance afterwards
Great video as always, Scout! My heart says Huff, biggest surprise win would be Cheez but logically I think Fractal. The comedic side of me wants to see Eric win simply because he's always so subdued in his emotions and reactions that it'll be like watching that spelling bee kid win where the confetti is falling, lights are flashing and the crowd is going wild but the winner has barely cracked a smile!
Welp...
@@galaxystudios370 well, it was a bigger reaction than I expected!
Top notch as usual. I liked the sound effects of the faces going up the bars.
Jonas is still the number one for me. 🥺
The existence of J Trophy demonstrates that you are not alone.
Same. Him and Thor.
ZZYZX
No one will ever dominate a tournament like he did anymore. He was always several steps of the competition.
These kids would’ve destroyed him..Jonas is lucky coz all his opponents were noobs
I'll be cheering on Alex T. That kids energy is just infectious. I think Fractal probably has it though - seems too consistent and seems to not feel pressure.
Yeah Alex T is so fun to watch so aggressive yet really good at the game
I'm actually shocked Fractal hasn't won every single CTM since the main event last year.....I'm glad he hasn't cause its more interesting I mean, just also genuinely surprised is all. Feel really bad for Sidnev though poor guy has made like 3 straight finals and lost all of them in heartbreaking fashion!. Just a matter of time though.....I think lol. Nah it is I know it!. All these dudes are amazing players. Also bit shocked Alex hasn't been winning to but just shows the closing gap is' all he's still amazing. And your right that kid is hilarious and a riot when he wins and loses lol.
Yeah, he has a lot of energy. I hope he‘ll get 16 million soon
THE TETRIS PLAYER 😱
*THE* TETRIS PLAYER
THE TETRIS PLAYER
THE TETRIS PLAYER
THE TETRIS PLAYER
So exciting. Also crazy to think that we may be in a position to have ANOTHER new youngest world champ. A couple more years and we'll have 1st graders dominating the scene at this pace. Great video as always.
Great content! Loved this video, and looking forward to CTWC 2022!
I'm not very in tune with the world of competitive NES Tetris, but your videos are always so fun to watch. See this level of data analysis in the world of Tetris is really cool!
I love stats like this. Great analysis, Scout 👍🏻
I think it's probable that we won't see any upsets this year. These Big 6 simply have a skill gap too massive to most other players. Their ability to chase down any score by lining out makes it so that they are playing a qualitatively different game to their opponents. The dominance that Jonas and Joseph had in previous years was enough to carry them past 99% of players and they were just very good, they didn't have a whole other gear that they could kick into to surpass any other player's score. We've seen great players like Rhubarb put up a game within 100k of their PB and Dog just aggressively Tetris in 29 and put 300k on top of this score... They're really in a league of their own in a way we haven't seen in previous years.
One might say...rolling...over the competition.
They do a bit of rolling
Can’t wait to finally meet you dude! Such a great video that reminds me of Smash Melee’s 5 gods
Man Jonas would have been NASTY on rolling.
I love that Joseph smashed the old records and way of playing, and subsequently been deposed by an even newer play style. I don't know if "rolling" will be the last, best technique, because we thought that about hypertapping when it crushed DAS, but it certainly shows that new ideas come from new blood, and the timeline of "Boom! Tetris for Jeff" attracting Joseph, whose wins attracted the next wave, has been great to see.
Thank you for documenting this because I'm sure that a lot of this has been down to you, and your work.
Since the game only counts 30 inputs during any 60frame cycle, rolling is the last technique barrier. Sure, someone might find a way to get 30 inputs some other way, but 30 is the limit. And that is hard enough given you have to flip pieces too.
A new technique that allows for more control over rotating, whilst also maintaining directional movements, could be invented which would, therefore, be better than rolling. I am open to the idea that there could still be advancements because people were sure that hypertapping was the last, best technique up until it wasn't.
Imo Huff is undoubtedly one of the tetris players in the world
He's my pick to win
Dog is still a player in tetris ever
Huff is a Tetris machine. Damn near unstoppable
@@tommj4365 If you look back over time I think Jonas was of the Tetris players
Can't wait for the '22 comp video. What a crazy time!
fantastic video, I feel like I have a masters degree in tetris stats now. I'll be attending in-person this year and I'm so hyped!
Ahhhhhhhhhhh amazing video as always!! Slicing this data is always so much fun and provides so many thought-provoking insights. Thank you for all the hard work you do!!
And see you FRIDAY!!!
Great dataset and a top notch presentation.
Thanks for the video. Great content as always. I'm getting my wisdom teeth out on Friday, so looking forward to some loopy Tetris watching this weekend!
This video is so cool, Scout! The amount of work that went into it is apparent and I thoroughly enjoyed it.
[Tristop's my pick to take home this W btw]
Things Big Six Must Improve on to be successful this week:
Alex Thach: Must qualify better than last year. No need to force himself into the Round of Zero and an extra match the others won't require.
Dog: Must ease aggression on kill screen. Without a line cap in play, survival is the bigger target.
Fractal: Don't be his own worst enemy, has to avoid the early top-outs and giving free wins to opponents.
EricICX: More consistency. While he has been a world-beater at times, it has been way too much hit or miss in CTWC competition.
PixelAndy: Must back up CTM performances. Also can't be satisfied with playing second fiddle to his younger brother Dog.
Huff: Must avoid the urge to go aggressive on kill screen. That's NOT his style of play, extending the game is his preferred method of attack, so stick with it.
this is crazy how much time that costed u to prepare this. hats off man for that work. i admire this.
In addition to being insensitive to outliers, the median is the better choice here because it is more closely related to how you actually win. In Tetris, your average score doesn't matter; what matters is how often your score is higher than your opponent's. If we want to know how good a player would be against a generic opponent, we can ask questions like "what score could he beat half the time?" (i.e. the median) or "what score could he beat 75% of the time (i.e. the third quarter), and those are more useful than "what is his average score?" After all, it makes almost no difference if a player occasionally gets 20 million points, since probably even 1.5 million would be enough to win.
It’s going to be a great tournament for sure! Likely one of these 6 yes, and while recent form is a good indicator in any sport, anything can happen! Looking forward to hopefully some March Madness type upsets!
The effort that you put in each video deserves a title too.
After the reigns of Jonas and Joseph it feels kinda weird not to have a clear favorite :D
I'm still sticking with Fractal as my pick to win this weekend. That's where I've stood all of 2022, can't back out now!
He is a very solid pick
I wouldn't rule out the 2 brother and Eric.. I think the winner will be decided on who can handle the live atmosphere and pressure the best, almost all the CTMs and the past 2 CTWC were played online where there is no crowd pressure and no peeking over ur shoulder to see ur opponents screen, this looking at ur opponents screen could be a decider if ur a peeler and get distracted and make mistakes.
Plus analysing Dogg's, Andy's and Ericks games in the recent past they have been trying to go aggressive mostly past 29 and not concentrating on longevity like fractal and Huff. Plus we don't know which of them has been playing mind games, example when strong appear weak, or don't play gpod enuf so u dont enter the competition as top seed, there is a certain pressure when ur top seed and people expect you to win. Mind you there is no line limit and the past CTM people had line limit so tactics will change. And last of all twill depends on who will have nerves of steel and play the smartest, wisest game. Play intelligently.
But by far the top stackers in my opinion with the 'tetris cerebral intelligence ' are Dog, Andy and Erick. The winner will be one of those 3 if they don't eliminate themselves early I predict 2 of them to meet each other if they Don't play each other in earlier rounds.
Joseph ran away as soon as he saw there were better players than him and started loosing games.
13:35 I love how they're each the best in something else.
These are without a doubt one of the players of all time
Love this analysis. Thank you!
Looking forward to your event recap video!
Watching this AFTER CTWC has ended is really funny
Hard working analysis, as always. Thank you and best of luck to everyone this weekend.
ALEX T WE ROOT FOR HIM TO WIN THE WHOLE THING FOR THE SALAVTION OF THIS NATION
But ur Alex t
@@ArpentRunnerNo way😱
Huge fan of you, Alex! Gl on rebirth
i was just thinking about this sort of conversation, ever since rolling became essentially the only option for competetive play i wondered who you could consider the best players. this was quite literally the perfect video for my question
been following ur videos for a long time...thank u for all tht u do for the classic tetris fans on youtube...love u bro!
Awesome work as always
Wow this is pure gold for a Tetris stats nerd! One suggestion - you might want to have a date / strategy cut off as data points. DAS and hypertapping (in post 29) are losing relevance so removing those data points might paint a better picture.
Poetic that Eric beat Fractal in the championship. He was not ranked at the top in any of these metrics, and at the "survival stat" 9:37, he was dead last despite outliving Fractal in the final. Also fitting that he was considered to have the highest potential 13:43.
Really, the issue is that Eric is the most inconsistent of the group. He either plays amazingly or like shit. His shit play is usually enough to beat most people, but not this year.
Looking forward to this CTWC. I imagine the best of three games will more readily produce upsets.
There're important unpredictable factors, like anxiety, because none of them have played live in high stakes games. Also do they have the same pieces in CTM?
Whenever one of your videos pops up it makes me smile. Apart from linking us 'normies' to he classic tetris scene I just find it so charming how you've become the inofficial analyst/chronologist/whatever of this sport through seemling both accident and pure passion. Stay awesome, my dude. Jonas would be proud.
Great video, love the stats!
It's a great day when a Scout video drops! Well done again brotha!
I start watching your videos and a smile unconsciously spreads across my face. Thanks for the great entertainment!
I think the pressure of championship gets to people.
The win is totally up for grabs between these six. LET'S GO!
These videos are so well put together
One huge overlook that no stats will capture is psychology. The vast, vast majority of these games took place in the comfort and quiet of their own homes. I expect playing on a stage in front of a noisy crowd of several hundred will rattle some players, especially the younger ones.
Esp Eric, I don’t think he’s gonna make it too 8.
@@chimyshark this really aged poorly lmao
@@arhithdharanendra5053 yeah I guess he fixed his mentality and pulled through. Congrats to him. I was rooting for AlexT and exact opposite of what I had hoped for when it was Alex who didn’t make top 8.
@@chimyshark He had a bad day while Eric had a good one, simple as that
@@chimyshark LMAO. I was predicting Eric to win already once I saw his quals.
Your comment aged poorly.
There are a few Dark horse picks that are worth considering.
1. Tristop, better than his competetion results suggest because he had a bad month once.
2. TommyNTG while he's actualy rated higher than ericICX IDK if he's going to the CTWC,
3. Cheez: actually rated #6 in the world, though he hasn't entered events in a while he does have some good perfomances though.
I give those 3 at least a 10% chance of winning the whole thing if all are going
this is a great question, original upload title: who *is* the tetris player in the world? jokes aside though, i'm excited to see this video once i comb through the rest of my watch later
Had Cheez practiced im secret and just came out with rolling during CTWC he would have definitely been the winner of this year's CTWC! He didn't capitalize on his technique properly. He should have practiced in secret and just blaze it out and bring out the big guns during CTWC! The crowd would have gone wild seeing post 29 play on that level and it would have made for a hell of a competition for CTWC. Now we have seen all the excitement and exciting games and know the capabilities of the players that the element of surprise isn't there. Imagine how lit it would have been if rolling was unveiled during the CTWC competition!! All sports networks would have picked it up and TikTok going viral it would have been good exposure for Tetris and CTWC it would habe been one for the history books a fairy tale of a competition! Just a thought....
I love how your channel has been steadily creeping up lol jajaja. Soon it’ll be at 100k+
My top 6 are fractal, alext, Jonas, Myles, Ericicx,and Tristop who is slept on.
Love watching this for the first time after lol. This was awesome
Poor cheez. Revolutionises the game by establishing rolling, breaks world records, only for them to be totally crushed shortly after, and is not even part if the big 6 going into the championship, as others adapted his technique even better than himself
Hopefully he retains his relevance in Tetris history ... although many newcomers may not know why they use certain techniques across the game, the information on progenitors should rightly live on.
He dropped off on purpose, he made a decision not to share his high scores anymore so for all we know he could be holding onto a 10 million or smth. He's more of a wild card than anything rn imo
He seems too inconsistent, but I think it'd be cool to see him in the go the distance
Just doesn't have the consistent results in CTM to merit consideration. Not saying he can't shock in Portland, just not expecting him to do it.
Linking to their Twitch channels in the description might be a good idea! I hadn't heard of Alex T before.
The legend of Alex T clips.twitch.tv/WealthyFlirtyPigeonPJSalt--7nlmFhqJBK9W4_1
hi scout, thanks for another well delivered video. for some of these charts, especially where the spread is apparently so close, it would be super helpful if you shared the results of some basic statistical analysis. maybe a collaborator could help share whether testing demonstrates differences between players and if the differences are statistically significant. thanks again for the great content!
Blue scuti wasn't even born back then.
Can we get an updated video now?
when you first said “so the big question is…” my brain immediately went “Why Portland”
The psychological effect of playing in a live competition should also be taken into account. Alex T being younger and having less experience in live competitions than Fractal.
I come from a smash bros background and its great to see a tetris version of the 5 gods of melee, good stuff man!
Great work as always Scout! I wouldn't rule Dog out. After winning back to back, the "normal" tournaments, even with large prize pools, are not the same. He will wake up when that big J is up for grabs. Time to brush off that old Twitch account for the weekend.
Like last year and the year before I'm gonna root for Dog because his play style is my favourite.
dog and joseph stacking is on another level
he showed that last 2 years
nah bro eric watched this video and decided that he was gonna show his true power
I am really rooting for my boy and fellow skyblock coop AlekTh but still this CTWC will be extremely fun
I loved how this was put together. Performance based with good thinking behind it. The only thing it misses is an "intangible." Something that won't be picked up by the performance metrics. In comparison,9 ball billiards. Pros try to pocket shots intentionally. However, the rules of the game allow a person to keep shooting even if a ball is pocketed unintentionally. A lucky shot, if you will. It would have been more enjoyable if you threw in a similar category for comparison. I don't know what you would use, but it would have been nice to add.
I can't find the page for Friday's qualifying schedule - can someone link it?
14:46 he predicted that sidnev would be one to do an upset
I am wondering about how the chart 13:43 would look like if you counted CTM and CTWC wins
Another excellent video! Great job! 👏
I like this. Well done!
I used to watch classic tetris back in the days of Jonas, Jeff, Koryan and Quaid, even got myself a certain tetris meme T-shirt. The new wave of players are much better at the game but don't seem to have the same kind of charisma and backstory, it's not nearly as fun of a spectacle anymore.
Of course, maybe Joseph hasn't been able to keep up with the new blood, but it goes without saying he was the bridge that connected the old generation with the up and comping new generation tetris players. Without his dominance, Tetris would not have a scene as it has today.
And lets not forget about Jonas, who probably wouldn't have won 7 in todays competition, but was a vital part of the early days. Similar to smash melee where the older players helped maintain the game's community in its early day. Rest in Peace Jonas
dog deserves one offline CTWC title
Great Video : )
Will Joseph play ctwc this year?
After watching qualifying and top 32 o think Fractal, Eric or Dog have the best chance of winning. Alex T has no shot, Andy and Huff could win but i don't see it happening
The notification said "Who is the Tetris Player in the World?" LMAO
Genius strat by scout to get more comments.
Good morning
good morning huff
@@aGameScout was good video
Single elimination makes a lot of sense since the standard way of setting up a double elimination bracket scales terribly beyond 16 players, leading to a much longer schedule and matches between players who only have a tiny chance of winning left.
I've thought about that for a while and come up with a faster and less punishing double elimination bracket that works for 16 players and up, called "accelerated double elimination":
In classic double elimination, the ratio between the sizes of the lower and upper bracket develops 0->1->2->1->2->...->1.
Every step from 2 to 1 requires the upper bracket to not play, which is slow. Also, if the upper bracket finalist wins the lower bracket, they will have the same number of wins as the upper bracket champion, which leads to organizers often requiring the lower bracket winner to win 2 matches in a row in the grand final.
My alternative idea has the lower bracket's size developing either 0->1->2->3->4->...->2->1 (for 16 or 64 players) or 0->1->2->1->2->3->4->...->2->1 (for 32 or 128 players).
This
1. reduces the number of breaks taken by the upper bracket, leading to a faster schedule,
2. reduces the number of matches required to make it from the first few lower bracket matches into the grand finals, and
3. guarantees that the lower bracket winner has at least 1 more win than the upper bracket winner, justifying weaker than 2-in-a-row odds. One suggestion I have for this is that the lower bracket winner has to win the finals as a Bo5 AND as a Bo7, while the upper bracket winner has to win them as a Bo5 OR as a Bo7.
Oversimplifying with the assumption that all players are evenly matched (with my odds idea for the finals), the chances of winning the tournament based on the upper bracket placement would change as follows:
Upper bracket winner: 75% -> 58%
Upper bracket finalist: 12.5% -> 10.5%
Everyone else combined: 12.5% -> 31.5%
I think that this could give more of a point to double elimination. Right now, if you want double elimination, you'd have to double the length of the tournament and there would be a 7/8 chance for the winner to be from the upper bracket finals anyway. This idea changes that.
The good thing is, that always someone can appear out of nowhere like tetristime or sam finch. But yeah if I had to bet Id chose one of these too because of consitency. But maybe someone like cheeze has a good run and throws out one 3million game after another and wins it all. :D
I wonder who is the tetris player of the world
It's that old man scout made a video of once